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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The Friday evening card at Sam Houston Race Park features an eight-race program with a focus on Texas-accredited runners. The schedule is evenly split between four dirt sprints and routes and four turf contests with the rail positioned at 30 feet. With several wide-open maiden fields and competitive allowance optional claiming events, the card offers a balanced mix of developing talent and seasoned veterans.
The weather forecast for this evening indicates clear, cool conditions with temperatures settling in the mid-to-upper 50s. The main dirt track is expected to be fast, while the turf course should remain firm. Historically, Sam Houston’s dirt surface favors early speed in sprint distances, though horses drawn in outside posts who can clear the field often find success. On the turf, the 30-foot rail setting tends to penalize wide trips, making ground-saving maneuvers and tactical positioning in the early stages essential for victory.
1st Race
Post Time: 06:30 PM Pace Analysis: The pace projects to be moderate. Cruzin for Gurls (2) is expected to lead early, with Texas Bandit (6) and Heckamighty (5) maintaining tracking positions to keep the leader in range. Key Contenders: Running Point (1) and Cruzin for Gurls (2). Secondary Choices: Texas Bandit (6). Longshots: Heckamighty (5).
2nd Race
Post Time: 06:56 PM Pace Analysis: An honest pace is expected as Clever Clementine (3) and Maid to Keep (6) contend for the lead, likely setting up a fair environment for mid-pack closers. Key Contenders: Clever Clementine (3) and Charlie’s a Rockin (4). Secondary Choices: Free to Be Me (5). Longshots: Witt’s Dubai Gal (1).
3rd Race
Post Time: 07:22 PM Pace Analysis: A rapid pace is anticipated with Texas Speed Queen (5) and Aunt Penny (1) expected to duel early, which may leave the front-runners vulnerable to late-stage closers. Key Contenders: Texas Speed Queen (5) and Edge Chaser (2). Secondary Choices: Let Her Be (6). Longshots: Aunt Penny (1).
4th Race
Post Time: 07:48 PM Pace Analysis: Following the scratch of Zampino, the Steve Asmussen-trained pair of Mucafaah (1) and Special Destiny (2) are expected to dictate a controlled tempo from the inside. Key Contenders: Special Destiny (2) and Mucafaah (1). Secondary Choices: Avery Place (4). Longshots: Ballistic Bob (5).
5th Race
Post Time: 08:14 PM Pace Analysis: If the scratch-watch entries remain out, Tap to Connect (4) and Devil’s Mischief (10) will likely control the fractions, ensuring a steady rhythm throughout. Key Contenders: Manor Born (8) and Cinco Richie (3). Secondary Choices: Tap to Connect (4). Longshots: Shogun Be Fast (1).
6th Race
Post Time: 08:40 PM Pace Analysis: A contested lead between Heavenville (6) and Twenty One Skidoo (4) is likely, creating an ideal scenario for a closer to capitalize during the final turns. Key Contenders: Schifty’s Haloid (5) and Heavenville (6). Secondary Choices: Remember Big Jim (1). Longshots: Pacificislandtime (2).
7th Race
Post Time: 09:06 PM Pace Analysis: High-energy speed is the theme here, with Carly’s Shance (4) and Serious Rock (5) expected to burn through rapid early fractions. Key Contenders: Kiss My Dice (3) and Serious Rock (5). Secondary Choices: Lanaluah (6). Longshots: Witt’s Lil Ringer (2).
8th Race
Post Time: 09:32 PM Pace Analysis: Despite several scratch concerns, Helladic (1) and Bling Bling Bling (3) are the primary engines for a fast early pace in this five-furlong turf sprint. Key Contenders: Bad Beat Brian (9) and Classic Moment (5). Secondary Choices: Bling Bling Bling (3). Longshots: Marcus Gift (8).
