Will Rogers Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 9, 2026 card


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

Will Rogers Downs opens its March 9, 2026 Thoroughbred card with eight dirt races, highlighted by Oklahoma-bred allowance and stakes events plus several competitive claiming races at middle distances and sprints. The feature is the Blue Ribbon Stakes for Oklahoma-bred three-year-old fillies at six furlongs, supported by a one-mile handicap and multiple one-mile claiming and allowance races that reward stamina and tactical speed on the dirt.

Recent meet patterns suggest healthy field sizes and broad trainer participation, with no single barn dominating results, which tends to create more honest race shapes and spreads value throughout the card. The early card is anchored by Oklahoma-bred maiden and allowance routes, while the late races offer class-tested older claimers and the stakes sprint, giving multiple opportunities for horizontal wagers like Pick 4s and Pick 5s.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Claremore's weather on March 9 projects to be seasonably cool with dry conditions, tracking closely with recent Oklahoma City area March weather where early-morning temperatures have been in the 30s to 40s with clear skies and light winds. With no significant recent rain reported in the region's early March observations, the main track should be listed as fast, producing fair footing with typical Will Rogers Downs dirt dynamics rather than sloppy or sealed biases.

Historical March weather at nearby Will Rogers World Airport shows light to moderate breezes and limited precipitation on comparable dates, suggesting wind should not materially affect race outcomes other than a mild headwind or tailwind on the backstretch or homestretch. Overall, handicapping should proceed on the assumption of a standard, fast Oklahoma dirt surface without weather-driven adjustments.

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Public track-bias data for Will Rogers Downs dirt routes around one mile indicate a modest, but not extreme, edge to horses with forward tactical speed who can secure position into the first turn, with inside-to-middle posts generally performing best. Deep closers can still win when the pace overheats, but the combination of a relatively short run to the first turn and compact fields often allows pace-pressers and stalkers to control outcomes.​

At sprint distances like five and one-half furlongs, the track historically plays slightly speed-favoring, with horses breaking sharply from inside and middle posts able to hold the rail or sit just off the pace in the two or three paths. Given today's expected fast surface and mostly modest field sizes, an assumption of a fair-to-mild speed bias with no severe post disadvantage is appropriate, but front-runners who can clear or sit second should be upgraded slightly.​

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – Oklahoma-breds – 1 Mile

Post Time

Approximate post time is 1:15 PM local.

Pace Analysis

The pace here looks moderate and potentially controlled by Country Rider (6) and Down Periscope (4), both three-year-olds with enough early foot to be prominent from the break. Pontotoc (3) has shown tactical speed and can sit just behind that pair, while Gospel Don (1) and Kaluki (5) project as mid-pack stalkers with Our Flat Out (2) perhaps taking back for a late run.

Given the one-mile configuration and the lack of a confirmed need-the-lead burner, horses with tactical speed and the ability to relax in the first flight should hold an edge over deep closers. The race shape sets up best for a horse who can secure a clean trip in the first three turning up the backstretch and sustain a steady grind rather than a sharp closing kick.

Key Contenders

Pontotoc (3) enters as a prime win candidate, coming off a strong second in a one-mile maiden at this track where he earned the highest posted official rating in the field and showed improved form routing on fast dirt. His probable morning line in the 5/2 range reflects that he has already run fast enough to win this, and with weight relief as a three-year-old and a capable rider, he should get a cozy stalking trip behind the leaders.

Gospel Don (1) is a major contender from the rail; his connections are productive locally and he is expected to improve stretching out around two turns after prior sprint and route efforts that hint at stamina. With an inside draw on a fair-to-mild speed-favoring surface, he can secure ground-saving position and pounce if Pontotoc (3) or the pace players soften late.

Secondary Choices

Country Rider (6) offers solid appeal as a pace-forward three-year-old who can take advantage of his outside post to see the field and press or sit just off the leaders. His previous one-mile efforts suggest he stays the trip, and the rider-trainer combination has been competitive at Will Rogers Downs in similar spots, making him a logical inclusion in multi-race and intra-race exotics.

Kaluki (5) has not yet posted the same figures as the top trio but benefits from a capable jockey and a trainer who can move horses forward in the second and third local starts of the meet. He is a candidate to step forward at a fair price, especially if the pace scenario allows him to sit just off the leaders and grind into contention late.

Longshots

Our Flat Out (2) shows a modest rating but has been knocking around similar company and could benefit if the pace proves more contested than expected. From an inside draw and with a rider who has experience nursing speed or saving ground, he is usable underneath in trifectas and superfectas rather than as a primary win candidate.

Down Periscope (4) for the same barn as Country Rider (6) adds depth to the pace picture and may be used as a “rabbit” or as a legitimate upset chance if he can control the tempo. His 8/1 forecast price indicates market skepticism, but any step forward off his prior ratings could put him into the frame for a minor share at a price.​

Selections

Win: Pontotoc (3)
Place: Gospel Don (1)
Show: Country Rider (6)

Betting Strategy and Angles

In vertical wagers, exacta boxes or keying Pontotoc (3) over Gospel Don (1), Country Rider (6), and Kaluki (5) make sense, with saver tickets that reverse Gospel Don (1) or Country Rider (6) on top for coverage. For trifectas, using Pontotoc (3) and Gospel Don (1) in the first and second slots, with Country Rider (6), Kaluki (5), Our Flat Out (2), and Down Periscope (4) filling out the third position is a reasonable structure.

Horizontally, Pontotoc (3) can be treated as an A-level single for aggressive Pick 5 or Pick 4 structures, while including Gospel Don (1) as a backup ticket leg if budget permits. Players looking for early value could lean on Pontotoc (3) and Country Rider (6) as their only two uses, attempting to beat Gospel Don (1) for a better payoff.

Race 2 – Claiming – Fillies and Mares – 5 1/2 Furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 1:42 PM local.

Pace Analysis

The second race features older fillies and mares and should have an honest, possibly pressured pace with several capable of showing early speed, including Love Me A Sunset (1), Accelerate Judy (2), All Aflutter (3), and Predicting (6). The 5 1/2-furlong distance on a fast Will Rogers Downs dirt track generally rewards horses who can break sharply and maintain position, but the presence of multiple pace types could set up a stalker such as Paula M (5) or Sara's Sapphire (7).

Inside speed like Love Me A Sunset (1) can be dangerous if she clears, but if the outside pace types engage early, the race could collapse into the hands of one of the mid-pack runners late. The key question is whether any single mare is significantly faster early; if not, pace pressure favors the slightly off-the-pace types.

Key Contenders

Love Me A Sunset (1) projects as a key win candidate from the rail, with a strong local record and a top rider aboard who excels at nursing speed on this surface. She benefits from the race conditions that favor mares with recent form and has enough tactical ability to either lead or sit just behind any suicidal speed outside.

All Aflutter (3) brings experience and class to the group and has often run well at this level while showing a stalking-to-pressing style that fits expected race dynamics. With a rider-trainer combination that has been competitive in claiming races at Will Rogers Downs, she shapes as a likely board-hitter and late threat if the pace is hot.

Secondary Choices

Paula M (5) is an appealing secondary contender, particularly if she can sit mid-pack and make one run into the final furlong as the leaders tire. Her trainer has had success placing mares where they can earn checks, and the rider is capable of timing a late move in a race that may set up for such a trip.

Predicting (6) and Sara's Sapphire (7) both project as usable in the second and third slots of exotics; Predicting (6) has enough tactical speed to stay in close attendance early, while Sara's Sapphire (7) could get a clean outside stalking trip avoiding traffic and kick home for a share. Shelley's Money (4) is another who has back class and could outperform odds if she gets a good trip behind the primary speed.​

Longshots

Accelerate Judy (2) may be overlooked, but with a light apprentice weight and potential speed, she could play spoiler on the front end if she breaks best and the others hesitate. Her best route to value is stealing the race on a relatively uncontested lead, but she is more likely a fringe exotics candidate.​

Selections

Win: Love Me A Sunset (1)
Place: All Aflutter (3)
Show: Paula M (5)

Betting Strategy and Angles

Win bets on Love Me A Sunset (1) are acceptable if her price stays near the morning line and does not collapse below even money. Exactas using Love Me A Sunset (1) over All Aflutter (3), Paula M (5), and Sara's Sapphire (7) are logical, with small reverse exactas including All Aflutter (3) and Paula M (5) on top for value.

Trifectas can key Love Me A Sunset (1) and All Aflutter (3) in the top two spots with Paula M (5), Shelley's Money (4), Predicting (6), and Sara's Sapphire (7) for third. In horizontals, this race is relatively spread-friendly; singling Love Me A Sunset (1) is possible, but including All Aflutter (3) and Paula M (5) as additional A or B types will stabilize tickets.

Race 3 through Race 8

Detailed, line-by-line contemporary figure and morning-line data for races 3 through 8 are not fully accessible from the available sources, and I cannot reliably reconstruct each horse's recent speed figures, class lines, or consensus expert rankings without that information. To avoid making assumptions or inventing details, I will not break down pace scenarios or individual contender tiers for races 3 through 8 horse-by-horse beyond what is directly known from the card structure you provided.

From the conditions alone, Race 3 is an Oklahoma-bred allowance route, Race 4 and Race 8 are one-mile claiming routes, Race 5 is a handicap at one mile, Race 6 is a 5 1/2-furlong claiming sprint, and Race 7 is the Blue Ribbon Stakes for three-year-old Oklahoma-bred fillies at six furlongs. In all of those dirt races, the general meet profile still favors horses with tactical speed and route experience in the mile races and versatile sprinter-milers with early foot for the stakes and sprint claimers.

Without confirmed morning lines and recent form data for each horse in races 3 through 8, assigning specific pace roles, key contenders, and detailed wagering tiers for every runner would be speculative. In keeping with your request not to assume information that cannot be verified, I must stop short of producing full race-by-race selections and exotics structures for those later races.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Within the first two races, several familiar Will Rogers Downs riders appear, including Larren Delorme, Alberto Pusac, Ronnie Huckaby, Richard Eramia, Leandro Goncalves, Garrett Steinberg, David Cabrera, Isaiah Wiseman, Lindsey Hebert, Travis Cunningham, and others. Historical meet commentary indicates that wins tend to be spread among many barns and riders rather than concentrated, but certain riders like Cabrera and Eramia are generally regarded as strong tacticians on this circuit.

Riders such as Delorme and Goncalves, who have already been entrusted with live mounts like Gospel Don (1) and Kaluki (5), often signal stable confidence and can be upgraded slightly in close calls. Apprentice or lighter-weight riders like Ronnie Huckaby can be advantageous on speed horses where the weight break helps them stay on the engine, as with Pontotoc (3) and some pace types in the claiming races.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Trainers represented on today's card in the early races include Steve Williams, Lynn Chleborad, H Ray Ashford Jr, Scott Young, Kari Craddock, Tim Dixon, Mark W Buehrer, Federico Villafranco, Tyanna Lechtenberg, J Alan Williams, Jerry Glen Stephens, and others. Public meet statistics from recent Will Rogers Downs seasons emphasize that the trainer standings are competitive and that many barns notch multiple wins, underscoring the need to evaluate individual horse form rather than rely solely on “super trainers.”

Barns like Steve Williams, Scott Young, and Kari Craddock have been visible in Oklahoma racing and are capable of having horses ready off short rests or minor class drops, which supports the cases for Gospel Don (1), the Young-trained pair in Race 1, and Kaluki (5). Claiming and allowance trainers such as Buehrer and Villafranco often place their horses aggressively, and when their entries show positive pattern moves or class relief, those angles can be meaningful at this track.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Given the available data, the strongest opinions on this card concentrate in Race 1 and Race 2, where entries, probable odds, and conditions are most clearly documented. In Race 1, Pontotoc (3) profiles as a potential single in horizontals and a strong key in exactas and trifectas, especially if his price remains near his forecast 5/2 range.

In Race 2, Love Me A Sunset (1) looks like a likely win candidate but may be overbet; value might be found by pressing exactas and trifectas that key her on top but lean on Paula M (5) and All Aflutter (3) as the main underneath pieces, or by taking modest win bets on All Aflutter (3) if she drifts above a fair price. For multi-race exotics starting with Race 1, a structure that singles Pontotoc (3) on some tickets and uses Pontotoc (3) with Gospel Don (1) and Country Rider (6) on others provides a mix of coverage and value.​

Because I cannot see full and current morning lines or speed-figure profiles for races 3 through 8, I cannot responsibly recommend specific Pick 4 or Pick 5 structures that rely on later race singles or value plays. A conservative approach is to focus bankroll on the early double linking Pontotoc (3) with Love Me A Sunset (1) and All Aflutter (3), and on intra-race exactas and trifectas in those first two races where we have the best-supported edges.

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback