Posted inTracks Reports

Colonial Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 13, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inTracks, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

Colonial Downs in New Kent, Virginia, presents its second day of a three-day spring meet highlighted by the Virginia Derby on Saturday. Friday's eight-race card features two $150,000 Virginia-restricted overnight handicaps: the Boston Handicap for older males at seven furlongs (Race 6) and the Stellar Wind Handicap for fillies and mares at six furlongs (Race 7). The card also offers a $100,000 allowance for 3-year-olds (Race 3), two $80,000 allowances (Races 4 and 5), a $75,000 maiden special weight (Race 2), a $93,750 maiden special weight nightcap (Race 8), and a $50,000 maiden claimer to open the day (Race 1).

All racing is on dirt at Colonial's 1 1/4-mile circumference oval, which is somewhat unique among North American racetracks. This March meet consists exclusively of dirt racing, as turf is unavailable this early in the season. First post time is 12:30 PM ET. The multi-race exotic wagering structure includes an Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) at a reduced 12% takeout, a Late Pick 5 (Races 4-8) also at 12% takeout, and an Old Dominion 6 (Races 3-8) at 15% takeout.

The scratch watch lists several horses with recent scratches that bear monitoring. In Race 1, Hay Grace Brennan (5) was scratched from a March 1 Laurel race due to private vet illness, and Irish B Goode (1) was scratched from a January 30 Laurel race when it was cancelled. In Race 2, Making Daisys (6) was scratched from a February 18 Mahoning Valley race for a veterinarian scratch. In Race 5, Gluckstadt (7) was scratched from a February 20 Laurel race by his trainer. In Race 8, Cool Customer (12) was scratched from a March 1 Fair Grounds race for a veterinarian scratch.

Weather and Track Conditions

Friday's forecast for New Kent, Virginia, calls for cloudy skies with a high around 57-59 degrees Fahrenheit and a low near 31-43 degrees, with no precipitation expected. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 20 mph. The track should play fast given the dry conditions and no rain in the forecast for Friday. Thursday's opening day of the meet (March 12) ran under similar conditions, and the main track appeared to play fair. With overnight temperatures dropping into the low 30s, the track may be sealed or firmer during the early races before loosening slightly as temperatures rise through the afternoon.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Colonial Downs' dirt track has a well-documented profile from recent meets. In 123 dirt sprints run at Colonial since 2021, early speed horses on or close to the pace accounted for 48% of victories, while stalkers running one to four lengths off the pace won 40% of sprint races. Closers coming from more than four lengths behind won only 10% of dirt sprints. Post positions in Colonial dirt sprints have generally played fairly, with middle posts showing a slight edge at 6 furlongs.

In Colonial dirt routes (40 races sampled since 2021), stalkers were the dominant running style, winning 55% of the time. Early speed won 33% of routes, and closers managed only 13%. The long run to the first turn in route races renders post position draws mostly irrelevant, though stalkers from inside posts 1-3 have done particularly well, accounting for 35% of dirt route winners in that span.​

For today's card, the six- and seven-furlong sprints should favor horses with tactical speed who can secure good position early. Pure closers are at a significant disadvantage at this track. In the seven-furlong races (Races 4, 5, and 6), pressers and stalkers have historically been the best running style, winning from middle to outside posts.​

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming $30,000

Post Time: 12:30 PM ET | 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $50,000 | VA Restricted F&M 3YO+

Pace Analysis

This is a modest field of eight fillies and mares, many with limited form. Chance To Party (2) showed early speed in her last several starts at Gulfstream and Colonial and figures to be forwardly placed. Redheadedstepchild (6) is a lone-start filly whose running style is unclear. Hay Grace Brennan (5) is a first-time starter with a recent vet scratch that warrants caution. The pace should be moderate, with Chance To Party (2) likely setting the tempo without heavy pressure.

Key Contenders

Chance To Party (2) is the standout in this field, posted as the 3-2 morning line favorite. She carries an Equibase class rating of 62, far superior to the rest of the field. The 3-year-old filly by Chance It ships from Florida for trainer Mary Lightner, who wins at a strong 15% clip overall and 29% with maidens in claiming races. Chance to Party has had five career starts, finishing a close second in an $87,500 maiden special weight at Colonial last summer before subsequently placing at Gulfstream in both maiden and maiden-claiming company. Rajiv Maragh picks up the mount, and the Lightner-Maragh combination has a 16% win rate. She ran a 69 highest lifetime speed figure and is simply the classiest horse in this field. Handicappers unanimously tab her as their top pick.

Secondary Choices

Redheadedstepchild (6) is a 3-year-old filly by Audible making her second career start after debuting at Colonial last summer, where she was wide and never really got into the race, finishing seventh in an $87,500 maiden special weight. Dropping to the $30,000 maiden-claiming level is a sharp class concession. Trainer Gary Williams Jr. has a solid 29% win rate with horses returning to dirt from turf (or debuting) at over 180 days off. At 4-1 on the morning line, she holds appeal if she improves as a 3-year-old.​

Ithadtobeblu (4) is listed at 9-2 and has three lifetime starts, all lacking competitive finishes. She stumbled badly at the start of her most recent race at Laurel but earned a 34 Beyer cutting back to 6 furlongs, her best effort. Trainer Hugh McMahon wins 18% overall and 20% with maiden claimers. She fits on class but needs major improvement to threaten the top pick.​

Longshots

Hay Grace Brennan (5) at 5-1 is a first-time starter by War Dancer for trainer A. Ferris Allen III, Colonial's all-time leading trainer. However, Allen's 0% win rate with first-time starters and 0% with debut maiden claimers in the last year is concerning, and Mychel Sanchez rides. The recent vet scratch is a red flag. Anita Glassofwine (7) at 10-1 returns from a lengthy layoff for trainer Lynn Ashby, who wins 25% with horses off breaks of 180 or more days. She was competitive at Colonial last summer but never hit the board. Handicappers gave her a secondary look, and she could improve as a 3-year-old. Radiant Tones (3) at 8-1 has extensive experience with 14 lifetime starts but has never won, posting a class rating of only 48. Irish B Goode (1) at 15-1 is a 5-year-old mare from the struggling barn of Diana McClure, who is winless in 45 starts in the last year. C C Commander (8) at 20-1 rounds out the field from the rail-less 8-post and has minimal credentials from trainer Amanda Rawlings.

Betting Strategy

Chance To Party (2) should be a strong single in multi-race bets. She towers over this field in class and speed figures. The exacta and trifecta play is to key her on top and use Redheadedstepchild (6), Ithadtobeblu (4), and Hay Grace Brennan (5) underneath. The Equibase mutuel ratings concur: 2-6-4-5.​

Selections

Win: Chance To Party (2)
Place: Redheadedstepchild (6)
Show: Ithadtobeblu (4)

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight

Post Time: 1:00 PM ET | 1 Mile Dirt | Purse: $75,000 (+50% VBF) | 3YO Fillies

Pace Analysis

This is a one-mile dirt route for maiden fillies, meaning the long run to the first turn largely negates post position. Making Daisys (6) and East Bay (1) may show some early speed, but this field lacks a confirmed front-runner. The pace is likely moderate, favoring stalking types, which aligns perfectly with the profile of Tahlequah (4).​

Key Contenders

Tahlequah (4) is the 3-2 morning line favorite for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and jockey Micah Husbands. The Authentic filly carries the field's top class rating of 73 and has run competitive races in two starts. She was a narrow second in her debut at Gulfstream last fall with a 73 speed figure, then ran third as the beaten favorite at Tampa in February, earning a 72. The Joseph-Husbands combination has an excellent 25% win rate. She is stretching out to a mile for the first time, but her Authentic pedigree suggests she will relish the added distance. Handicappers widely consider her the one to beat.

Making Daisys (6) is the 9-5 second choice on the morning line and is the most interesting horse in the race. The Gun Runner filly was a $200,000 Keeneland November purchase and is trained by top conditioner Wesley Ward, who wins at an impressive 26% overall and 27% with maiden special weights. She finished third in a tough Aqueduct maiden race in December with a 66 speed figure. Ward is removing blinkers for this start, a move that his barn produces a 35% win rate with. She adds first-time Lasix and had a sharp 1:00.20 breeze at Keeneland on March 6. Concerns include a prior vet scratch at Mahoning Valley and zero lifetime wins, but the talent is clear.

Secondary Choices

Chanceofalifetime (3) at 4-1 is another Lightner trainee shipping from Florida after a strong second-place debut at Gulfstream, finishing behind Turkish Pistachio at 29-1 odds and earning a 66 speed figure. She stretches out to a mile, and her sire Chance It does not scream classic distance, but the debut was clearly above average. She pairs again with Maragh.

East Bay (1) at 5-1 is a well-bred Street Sense filly who sold for $300,000 at Keeneland September. Her debut was a disaster, finishing seventh beaten 20 lengths at Gulfstream, earning only a 39 speed figure. Trainer Beckman adds blinkers, and this is a horse with a big pedigree searching for improvement.​

Longshots

Mystery Date (2) at 8-1 was previously trained by Riley Mott and showed a 52 speed figure in two starts that produced minimal results. She now runs for Michael Jones Jr. and adds first-time Lasix, but the form is modest. Stardust Biggy (5) at 20-1 ran third in her debut at Laurel but was run down by faders; her 28 speed figure is the weakest in the field.​

Betting Strategy

This is a competitive race between Tahlequah (4) and Making Daisys (6), with Chanceofalifetime (3) as a viable alternative. Consider a three-horse box exacta using 4-6-3, or key Tahlequah on top of the others. The Equibase mutuel ratings read 4-6-3-1.​

Selections

Win: Tahlequah (4)
Place: Making Daisys (6)
Show: Chanceofalifetime (3)

Race 3 – Allowance (VA Restricted 3YO)

Post Time: 1:30 PM ET | 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $100,000 | 3YO

Pace Analysis

Crossingthechannel (3) is a confirmed front-runner who wired his maiden field by open lengths at Aqueduct. Brazilian Conexao (2) has shown early speed in the past and may press. This Is The Life (5) has shown high early pace figures in spots. The pace could be honest if multiple horses contest the lead, which would play into the hands of the favorite if he can control it on his terms. Given Colonial's track profile favoring early speed, a wire-to-wire winner is very plausible.​

Key Contenders

Crossingthechannel (3) is the overwhelming 2-5 morning line favorite and looks dominant on paper. The Omaha Beach colt for trainer Michael Trombetta carries a class rating of 81, 17 points higher than any rival. He has a stellar record of 1-2-0 in three starts, with both of his losses coming in strong maiden races at Aqueduct where he earned Equibase speed figures of 83 and 88. His maiden-breaking win on January 4 was an easy wire-to-wire romp. Trombetta is Colonial's perennial leading money earner, and Mychel Sanchez is one of the top riders at the current meet. This is a Virginia-restricted allowance, and Crossingthechannel is simply a different class of horse compared to these rivals. He is bred by the late R. Larry Johnson, and the colt's connection to the Trombetta barn, which also trains Lonesome Road, signals stable confidence. Handicappers unanimously rank him the top pick.

Secondary Choices

G Q Worthy (6) at 9-2 has shown flashes of ability, including a runner-up finish in a stakes race at Colonial last summer, but he was beaten 27 1/4 lengths in his most recent start. He has a 64 class rating, the second-highest in the field. Xavier Perez rides for trainer John Robb. G Q Worthy is talented but wildly inconsistent.

Ihaveanappforthat (1) at 5-1 has hit the board in several recent races, including a maiden win at Colonial last September. He earned a 71 Beyer in December but followed with two subpar efforts. The class rating of 63 is competitive here. Jevian Toledo rides for trainer Anthony Lucas.

Longshots

Brazilian Conexao (2) at 10-1 won impressively at Indiana Grand in November but was completely overmatched in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway in January, finishing eighth. He adds first-time Lasix and blinkers off. Bettinonit (4) at 15-1 is a lightly raced Chance It colt for Lightner with a 61 class rating. He is outclassed here. This Is The Life (5) at 15-1 has shown high pace figures but minimal finishing ability, earning only a 35 last-out class rating.​

Betting Strategy

Crossingthechannel (3) is the clear single in this race and should be used as such in multi-race sequences (Pick 5, Pick 3, Old Dominion 6). At 2-5, the win bet offers minimal value. Consider keying him in exactas on top of G Q Worthy (6) and Ihaveanappforthat (1), or simply passing the race for straight wagering and leveraging him as a key in horizontals.

Selections

Win: Crossingthechannel (3)
Place: G Q Worthy (6)
Show: Ihaveanappforthat (1)

Race 4 – Allowance (NW1X)

Post Time: 2:00 PM ET | 7 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $80,000 (+50% VBF) | 3YO+

Pace Analysis

This is a wide-open allowance with several horses who have shown front-running or pressing ability. Shadow Surge (4) is a confirmed front-runner who has wired fields at Parx. Eastbostonbenny (2) has shown high pace figures. Keewaydin (3) has tactical speed and could press. The pace should be honest to fast, which benefits stalking types and closers in a seven-furlong race at Colonial where pressers win from middle to outside posts.

Key Contenders

Keewaydin (3) is the morning line second choice around 3-1 and is the pick of the handicapper from the DRF. This 4-year-old gelding by Classic Empire was formerly with Chad Brown, who deemed him talented enough to enter in the Grade 2 Remsen as a juvenile. He was the 6-5 favorite in that race, and Brown stated “I do like how he is training and galloping out.” He has since transferred to William Walden and is making his first start off a layoff since last summer's disappointing seventh at Saratoga. His class rating of 87 and post 3 with a 30% historical win rate are huge advantages. Jaime Torres rides, and the Torres-Walden combination shows a perfect 100% connection stat. Handicappers view him as a dangerous improvement candidate dropping in class.

Shadow Surge (4) at the 5-2 morning line is a wire-to-wire winner when he gets the lead unchallenged, but he has folded badly when pressed. His Equibase class rating of 71 is deceiving because his highest lifetime pace figure is a whopping 119, and his highest speed figure is 100. Mychel Sanchez rides for Jamie Ness, a 62% ITM combination. If he gets a soft lead, he can wire this field, but the pace looks too contested for that scenario.

Secondary Choices

Eastbostonbenny (2) at 5-1 carries an 89 class rating, the highest in the field. However, he has not raced since an unspecified time and ships for trainer Steve Klesaris, a known Colonial specialist who wins at high percentages with his entrants. Johan Torrealba rides. This is a horse to watch carefully in the wagering as he could be live at a price.

Surgical Precision (6) at roughly 9-2 is the Keeneland tip sheet's best bet of the day for this race. The gelding has made just one career start, winning a maiden special weight at Laurel in February 2025, earning a 77 class rating. Sheldon Russell rides for Brittany Russell, a 55% trainer ITM rate, and the thinking is that this meet was specifically targeted as a return spot, suggesting the horse has shown something in the mornings. The risk is obvious with only one start and a 13-month layoff.

Longshots

Skellig Michael (1) at 4-1 has an 84 class rating and ran well at times, but is coming from the tough inside post with only 5% historical win rate. Grim Reaper (7) at 12-1 has an 78 class rating and pace figures suggesting he can be in the mix. Jolly By Golly (8) at 15-1 has an 80 class rating for trainer Hamilton Smith, Colonial's all-time leading trainer, and ran consistent pace and speed figures. Fightertown (5) at 20-1 carries an inside post with 21% win rate but only a 74 class rating.​

Betting Strategy

This is one of the most playable races on the card. Keewaydin (3) and Surgical Precision (6) offer value against the morning line favorite Shadow Surge (4). Use all three as A-horses in exactas and trifectas. Consider a key wheel in the trifecta with Keewaydin (3) and Surgical Precision (6) on top using Shadow Surge (4), Eastbostonbenny (2), and Skellig Michael (1) underneath. For the Pick 5 and Pick 3, spread in this race: 3, 4, 6 at minimum, with 2 as a backup.

Selections

Win: Keewaydin (3)
Place: Surgical Precision (6)
Show: Shadow Surge (4)

Race 5 – Allowance (NW1X)

Post Time: 2:30 PM ET | 7 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $80,000 (+50% VBF) | 3YO+

Pace Analysis

Trust Issues (6) and Roar Ready (3) have shown high lifetime pace figures in the 90s, and Gluckstadt (7) has tactical speed as well. Dr. Park (5) is a closer. Multiverse (1) typically runs near the front. The pace could be contentious, which benefits the stalking types and sets up well for Dr. Park (5) if he fires fresh. However, Colonial's track profile disfavors deep closers, so the stalking types Multiverse (1) and Agreed (2) may have the best trip shapes.

Key Contenders

Multiverse (1) is the 5-2 morning line favorite for Riley Mott. He has a 92 class rating and was runner-up in his last three starts before an incident where he clipped heels and fell in his most recent race. The fact that Mott is bringing him right back so quickly suggests confidence the horse came out of the spill without issue. He was favored in two of his three consecutive second-place finishes, so a breakthrough feels overdue. Jaime Torres rides from the inside post, which has only a 5% historical win rate, a concern for a horse who may need the rail trip to save ground.

Dr. Park (5) at 3-1 has the field's highest class rating at 93, earned in his second career start in April 2025 where he won with an 86 Beyer. He has not raced in nearly 11 months, but trainer Peter Eurton rarely ships horses from the West Coast to Colonial Downs without intent. The last time Dr. Park faced a long layoff, he fired immediately. Martin Chuan has the ride. This is a high-risk, high-reward play.

Secondary Choices

Trust Issues (6) at 4-1 has a solid 86 class rating for Jamie Ness and Mychel Sanchez. He has pace figures in the high 90s that suggest he can dictate terms early, but his recent form has been inconsistent. He should be forwardly placed and is a contender if the pace holds together.​

Agreed (2) at 9-2 is the Keeneland tip sheet's best bet in this race and a horse that handicappers find intriguing. He has made just one career start, winning a maiden special weight at Laurel in his lone outing, earning an 83 class rating. Sheldon Russell rides for Brittany Russell, the same training connection as Surgical Precision in Race 4. The Russell barn appears to have targeted this meet with purpose.

Creed's Vision (8) at 5-1 needed seven tries to break his maiden but showed dramatic improvement since transferring to trainer Arnaud Delacour. His last two starts have been encouraging, with an 88 and 89 pace figure. Charlie Marquez rides from the outside post with a 20% win rate.

Longshots

Roar Ready (3) at 10-1 has a career-best 112 pace figure but has been inconsistent, and his 82 class rating is in range. Rajiv Maragh rides for Victor Barboza Jr. Spring Decision (4) at 15-1 was beaten by Lonesome Road in his last start and has a 78 class rating. Gluckstadt (7) at 20-1 was also beaten by Lonesome Road and has a recent trainer scratch that may signal fitness concerns.​

Betting Strategy

This is a spread race. Multiverse (1), Dr. Park (5), Agreed (2), and Trust Issues (6) all have legitimate winning chances. For horizontal wagers, use at least three of these four. The exacta box of 1-2-5-6 covers the major contenders. Creed's Vision (8) adds a layer of depth for trifecta and superfecta construction.

Selections

Win: Multiverse (1)
Place: Dr. Park (5)
Show: Agreed (2)

Race 6 – Boston Handicap ($150,000, VA Restricted)

Post Time: 3:00 PM ET | 7 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $150,000 | 4YO+ Handicap

Pace Analysis

This is the feature race on Friday's card. The pace scenario is critical. Chipotle (3) is a confirmed speed horse with pace figures averaging 106 in his last three and a lifetime-high of 121. Falcon Blue (2) also has early speed with a 99 lifetime-high pace figure. Lonesome Road (4) showed front-running ability in his two dirt wins. With multiple horses wanting the lead, the pace could be hot, which would benefit stalkers and closers. Bold Diversion (5) and Illuminare (7) figure to benefit from an honest pace.

Key Contenders

Lonesome Road (4) is the most talked-about horse on the card and the best bet of the day according to handicappers. The 4-year-old gelding by Maclean's Music, a half-brother to G1 winner Mindframe, has been sensational in two dirt starts for trainer Michael Trombetta. He won his dirt debut at Laurel by 8 1/2 lengths with a 93 Beyer, then followed with a 6 1/4-length allowance romp earning a 98 Beyer while cruising on the lead under Mychel Sanchez. This is his stakes debut, and the jump in class is the question, but “it was apparent after his maiden victory in December that he was ready for this level of competition,” according to handicappers. Trombetta gelded him prior to his switch to dirt, and the results have been transformative. He carries 116 lbs and breaks from post 4.

Chipotle (3) enters as the horse with the highest Equibase class rating in the field at 98. The 4-year-old gelding for trainer Michael Gorham has been “white-hot” according to handicappers and carries the top weight of 119 lbs. He finished just behind Point Dume at Laurel last time out, and that rival came back to soundly defeat graded-stakes quality opponents in a $200,000 stakes. Raul Mena has the mount, and the gelding has pace figures averaging 106, suggesting he will be forwardly placed. His versatility and consistency make him a serious threat.

Secondary Choices

Illuminare (7) at roughly 9-2 is the Pletcher-trained bounce-back candidate. He had a commanding allowance win in November 2024, but has made only two starts since, producing limited results. Pletcher's decision to choose this stakes over other spots off a long layoff speaks to confidence. Rajiv Maragh rides, and Pletcher's overall win rate demands respect. His 80 class rating is below the top two, but his 102 highest lifetime speed figure shows ceiling.

Bold Diversion (5) at 6-1 will be closing from far back, carrying only 116 lbs. His 90 class rating and 96 highest speed figure are competitive. He should benefit from the expected honest pace. However, closers at Colonial win only 10% of dirt sprints, which tempers enthusiasm.

Longshots

Falcon Blue (2) at 9-2 has an 87 class rating and a 104 highest lifetime speed figure. He is trained by Kevin Joy and ridden by Jose Montano. He has early speed and could factor if the pace collapses. Great Heavens (1) at 12-1 is a 90 class rating contender for trainer Jose Magana, with a massive 104 highest pace figure, but his recent form has been poor. Private Desire (6) is trained by Tom Morley and ridden by Jaime Torres; his 82 class rating puts him below the top group.​

Betting Strategy

Lonesome Road (4) is the play at the expected 2-1 morning line price. He has been so dominant in his two dirt starts that the step up in class may not be enough to slow him down. The key question is whether the pace holds together for him with Chipotle (3) pressing. If Lonesome Road can control the pace on his terms as he did in his two Laurel races, he may simply be too talented for this group. Exacta keys: 4 over 3, 7, 5. Trifecta: 4 with 3, 7, 5 with 3, 7, 5, 2. For those wanting to beat the favorite, a Chipotle (3) top ticket with Lonesome Road (4) and Illuminare (7) underneath provides a solid alternative. The Keeneland tip sheet commentary confirms: “Lonesome Road has improved each start and if he does so again he will be the winner. Chipotle is the speed of the race. Bold Diversion will be coming late and should get pace to run into.”​

Selections

Win: Lonesome Road (4)
Place: Chipotle (3)
Show: Illuminare (7)

Race 7 – Stellar Wind Handicap ($150,000, VA Restricted F&M)

Post Time: 3:30 PM ET | 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $150,000 | F&M 4YO+ Handicap

Pace Analysis

This six-furlong dash should have an honest pace. Talk To The Judge (8) carries the field's highest lifetime pace figure at 118 and should be on or near the lead. Conquerthosewecan (5) has shown pace figures of 119, and Shkhara Fire (2) has a 98. Carmelina (6) typically races on or near the pace as well. With multiple speed horses, the fractions could be fast, potentially setting up stalkers and closers. However, at Colonial's 6-furlong distance, early speed types still win 47% of the time.

Key Contenders

Carmelina (6) is the 9-5 morning line favorite and the clear class of the field, carrying the top weight of 124 lbs. The 5-year-old Maximus Mischief mare has earned more than $500,000 in her career with multiple stakes victories, including the Unique Bella Stakes at Parx, the Penny Chenery Stakes at Colonial, and the Keswick Stakes. Trainer Butch Reid Jr. is freshening her after a “short but strenuous 2025 campaign.” She is the class horse, and her 89 class rating is far superior. The concern is the layoff, but her past form off similar breaks has been strong. Angel Adorno has the mount.

Conquerthosewecan (5) at 5-2 carries 121 lbs and has been on the cusp of a stakes victory like this for some time. The Brittany Russell trainee is a Virginia homebred with an 81 class rating and a 93 highest speed figure. Her last performance at Colonial was the best of her career. Sheldon Russell rides, and the Russell-Russell connection has a 55% ITM rate.

Secondary Choices

Sporting Lady (3) at 3-1 carries 116 lbs and brings an interesting angle. She remains winless in five dirt starts, but trainer Keri Brion discovered something when she was taken off turf for a stakes at Fair Grounds, where she finished third with an 83 Beyer. Her 81 class rating is competitive, and Martin Chuan rides.

Roman Grace (7) at 10-1 has an 83 class rating and a 93 highest speed figure, making her a dark horse at a price. Rajiv Maragh rides for Amelia Green.​

Longshots

Shkhara Fire (2) at 8-1 for Brittany Russell carries a 76 class rating and a 98 lifetime-high pace figure, suggesting she will be forwardly placed. Jevian Toledo rides. Mila Candy (4) at 12-1 is trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci and has a 72 class rating. Talk To The Judge (8) at 15-1 has the highest pace figures in the field but is ridden by Forest Boyce for trainer Lacey Gaudet, and her 74 class rating is modest. Kissedbyanangel (1) at 20-1 carries a 76 class rating and a 94 highest pace figure, but the 1-post at Colonial dirt sprints has a 17% win rate.​

Betting Strategy

Carmelina (6) is the rightful favorite, but the layoff creates enough uncertainty to look for value. A Carmelina (6) on top exacta wheeling to Conquerthosewecan (5), Sporting Lady (3), and Roman Grace (7) is the play. For those willing to gamble against the favorite, Conquerthosewecan (5) on top of Carmelina (6) with Sporting Lady (3) creates an intriguing trifecta key. For the Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8), using Carmelina (6) and Conquerthosewecan (5) in this leg is advisable.

Selections

Win: Carmelina (6)
Place: Conquerthosewecan (5)
Show: Sporting Lady (3)

Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight (VA Restricted 3YO)

Post Time: 4:00 PM ET | 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $93,750 | 3YO

Pace Analysis

This is a large 12-horse field with several first-time starters, making pace projection challenging. Make It Quick (1) has the highest recent pace figure at 90, suggesting he will be on the lead. Feisty Notion (4) has pace figures averaging 92, making him another early runner. Pont Aven (6) has shown a 128 highest lifetime pace figure, indicating blinding early speed. The pace should be fast with multiple speed horses engaged, potentially setting up closers, though Colonial's track profile still favors speed.​

Key Contenders

Pont Aven (6) at 3-1 is the morning line favorite and has been “on the cusp of a breakthrough for the better part of six months.” The gelding is trained by Michael Trombetta and ridden by Johan Torrealba. His 67 class rating leads the field among experienced runners, and his 128 highest lifetime pace figure shows immense early speed. Trombetta claimed him two starts back and immediately moved him up, signaling confidence. He has a 48% win rate from the trainer and 44% from the jockey in the last year.

Cool Customer (12) at 8-1 was the top pick of one handicapper before a recent vet scratch at Fair Grounds raises concern. He is trained by Michael Stidham, Colonial's all-time leading trainer by wins since 2019. His 64 class rating and 72 highest speed figure are in range. He drew the far outside post 12, which has a 0% historical win rate at this distance, a major obstacle.

Secondary Choices

Love Yourself (8) at 5-1 carries a 71 class rating, the field's best, earned in his sole career start. He is trained by Niall Saville and ridden by Joseph Rocco Jr. The 0% historical win rate from post 8 at this distance is a concern, though.​

Hard Stance (3) is a first-time starter by Hard Spun for trainer Anthony Farrior. The Farrior barn has a 58% ITM rate with jockey Jevian Toledo, and the trainer sends his best out with intent. Recent workouts suggest readiness. At the 3-post with an 11% win rate, the post draw is neutral.

Traverse City (5) is another first-time starter for Jaime Torres and trainer Mike Maker. Maker wins 47% of the time as a trainer overall and 33% at Colonial. Being a first-timer from a top national trainer at a 15-1 morning line, he could offer value if he runs to pedigree.​

Longshots

Make It Quick (1) at 6-1 has a 47 class rating but high pace figures, suggesting he will be on the lead with every chance. Pharaohs Ghost (9) at 8-1 is a first-timer for Rajiv Maragh and trainer Dallas Stewart. Chancellorsville (2) at 12-1 has a 58 class rating and a 55% trainer ITM combination with jockey Denis Araujo. Feisty Notion (4) at 12-1 has a 59 class rating and high pace figures. Sweet Spy (7) at an estimated long price is a lightly raced filly by Hard Spun for A. Ferris Allen III. Vida (10) at 15-1 has a 51 class rating with high pace figures. Gallo (11) at 20-1 has a minimal 28 class rating.​

Betting Strategy

This is the trickiest race on the card, a 12-horse maiden field with several first-time starters. Pont Aven (6) is the logical favorite, but the depth of the field and presence of unknowns create fertile ground for exotic wagering. Spread widely in this leg of any horizontal bets. The trifecta play is to use Pont Aven (6), Love Yourself (8), Hard Stance (3), and Cool Customer (12) on top, wheeling with each other and adding Make It Quick (1) and Traverse City (5) underneath.

Selections

Win: Pont Aven (6)
Place: Love Yourself (8)
Show: Hard Stance (3)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Mychel Sanchez rides with a 53% ITM rate in the last 12 months and has mounts in multiple key races today, including Crossingthechannel (3) in Race 3, Shadow Surge (4) in Race 4, Trust Issues (6) in Race 5, and Lonesome Road (4) in Race 6, the day's Best Bet. Sanchez has been dominant at Mid-Atlantic tracks and won six times at Colonial's most recent summer meet. His partnership with Trombetta is especially potent.

Rajiv Maragh has a 42% ITM rate and rides for several prominent barns today, including Chance To Party (2) in Race 1, Chanceofalifetime (3) and Bettinonit (4) in other races, Roar Ready (3) in Race 5, Illuminare (7) in Race 6, and Roman Grace (7) in Race 7. His mount on Illuminare in the Boston Handicap for Todd Pletcher is a significant booking.​

Jaime Torres has a 34% ITM rate and an important mount on Keewaydin (3) in Race 4, where his combination with trainer William Walden shows a perfect 100% connection stat. He also rides East Bay (1) in Race 2, Brazilian Conexao (2) in Race 3, Multiverse (1) in Race 5, and Private Desire (6) in Race 6.​

Sheldon Russell has a 50% ITM rate and rides Making Daisys (6) in Race 2 for Wesley Ward, Surgical Precision (6) in Race 4, Agreed (2) in Race 5, and Conquerthosewecan (5) in Race 7, all for the Brittany Russell barn. The Russell-Russell combination is live in every race.​

Jevian Toledo has a 43% ITM rate and notable mounts including Ithadtobeblu (4) in Race 1, Ihaveanappforthat (1) in Race 3, Skellig Michael (1) in Race 4, Gluckstadt (7) in Race 5, and Hard Stance (3) in Race 8, a key debut candidate.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Michael Trombetta is the trainer to watch today. He saddles Crossingthechannel (3) in Race 3 as the overwhelming favorite and Lonesome Road (4), the Best Bet, in Race 6. Both are homebreds of the late R. Larry Johnson. Trombetta is Colonial's perennial leading money-earner and has historically excelled at this track. He also enters Pont Aven (6) in Race 8 after claiming him recently. A Trombetta hat trick is not out of the question today.

Brittany Russell has four horses entered across the card: Shkhara Fire (2) and Conquerthosewecan (5) in the Stellar Wind Handicap (Race 7), Surgical Precision (6) in Race 4, and Agreed (2) in Race 5. Both Surgical Precision and Agreed are one-start winners returning from layoffs, suggesting the Russell barn has specifically targeted this Colonial meet for their returns.

Saffie Joseph Jr. sends Tahlequah (4) from Florida for Race 2 with Micah Husbands. Joseph is one of the most prolific trainers in the country, winning 20% overall and 18% with maiden special weights, and his 25% win rate with Husbands is a strong combo.​

Wesley Ward trains Making Daisys (6) in Race 2 with an industry-leading 26% win rate. His decision to remove blinkers (35% win rate with that move) and add first-time Lasix (30% win rate) makes this runner extremely dangerous.​

Mary Lightner ships multiple horses from Florida, including Chance To Party (2) in Race 1 and Chanceofalifetime (3) in Race 2. She wins 15% overall and has a particularly strong 29% win rate with maiden claimers.

Todd Pletcher enters Illuminare (7) in the Boston Handicap. Pletcher's decision to choose this Virginia-restricted stakes over many other possible spots signals confidence in the horse's readiness off a long layoff.​

Peter Eurton ships Dr. Park (5) from the West Coast for Race 5, a rare move suggesting high expectations.​

Michael Stidham enters Cool Customer (12) in the nightcap, but the horse's recent vet scratch and post 12 draw are concerning. Stidham remains Colonial's all-time leading trainer by wins since 2019.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The day's Best Bet is Lonesome Road (4) in Race 6 (Boston Handicap). His two dirt starts have produced Beyers of 93 and 98, and he has done it with supreme ease. At an expected 2-1 price, he offers fair value in a seven-horse field where his primary competition is Chipotle (3), who carries top weight of 119 lbs. The class question is the only concern, and his breeding (half-brother to Mindframe, a G1 winner) suggests the ceiling is high.

For the Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5, 12% takeout), the structure favors singling Chance To Party (2) in Race 1 and Crossingthechannel (3) in Race 3, then spreading in the other three legs. A cost-effective ticket:

Leg 1 (Race 1): Chance To Party (2) – SINGLE
Leg 2 (Race 2): Tahlequah (4), Making Daisys (6), Chanceofalifetime (3) – SPREAD
Leg 3 (Race 3): Crossingthechannel (3) – SINGLE
Leg 4 (Race 4): Keewaydin (3), Shadow Surge (4), Surgical Precision (6) – SPREAD
Leg 5 (Race 5): Multiverse (1), Dr. Park (5), Agreed (2) – SPREAD

This ticket costs $0.50 x 1 x 3 x 1 x 3 x 3 = $13.50 on a $0.50 base.

For the Late Pick 5 (Races 4-8, 12% takeout), the key decisions are Races 6 and 8. Singling Lonesome Road (4) in Race 6 and Crossingthechannel equivalent horses reduces cost:

Leg 1 (Race 4): Keewaydin (3), Shadow Surge (4), Surgical Precision (6) – SPREAD
Leg 2 (Race 5): Multiverse (1), Dr. Park (5), Agreed (2) – SPREAD
Leg 3 (Race 6): Lonesome Road (4), Chipotle (3) – SPREAD
Leg 4 (Race 7): Carmelina (6), Conquerthosewecan (5) – SPREAD
Leg 5 (Race 8): Pont Aven (6), Love Yourself (8), Hard Stance (3), Cool Customer (12) – SPREAD

This ticket costs $0.50 x 3 x 3 x 2 x 2 x 4 = $36 on a $0.50 base.

The best value play on the card is Keewaydin (3) in Race 4. This horse trained under Chad Brown as a juvenile, ran as the 6-5 favorite in the Grade 2 Remsen, and now drops into a $80,000 allowance field against a beatable morning line favorite in Shadow Surge (4). If the pace is honest (which it likely will be with Shadow Surge and Eastbostonbenny involved), Keewaydin's tactical speed from the favorable 3-post sets up perfectly.

Secondary value plays include Surgical Precision (6) in Race 4 at an expected overlay price, Agreed (2) in Race 5 as a one-start winner with a strong training connection, and Roman Grace (7) at 10-1 in the Stellar Wind Handicap.

Daily Double plays: The Races 6-7 double pairing Lonesome Road (4) in the Boston with Carmelina (6) in the Stellar Wind is the chalk play. A saver wheel of Chipotle (3) or Illuminare (7) in Race 6 with Conquerthosewecan (5) in Race 7 adds coverage against potential upsets in either stakes race.

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback