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Finger Lakes Racetrack – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 22, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%16%32%47%63%3%7%13%18%26%38%What we said — 3.4%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.0%What we said — 25.6%What we said — 38.3%What we saidWhat happened — 2.6%What happened — 7.0%What happened — 13.6%What happened — 21.7%What happened — 31.3%What happened — 51.1%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.4%2.6%
7%7.4%7.0%
13%12.5%13.6%
18%18.0%21.7%
26%25.6%31.3%
38%38.3%51.1%

Finger Lakes Race Day Overview — September 22, 2026

Welcome to Finger Lakes Racetrack for a full eight-race Monday card kicking off at 12:55 PM Eastern. The meet is winding through its late-summer stretch run, and today's card offers a solid mix of maiden special weights, maiden claimers, and open claiming events that should provide sharp bettors with multiple angles. The Finger Lakes circuit remains one of the most competitive mid-level circuits in the Northeast, and Monday cards here often feature overlooked value as sharper money tends to concentrate on the weekend cards at Saratoga and the NYRA circuit.

A notable development relevant to today's card: the Jockey Club of America recently announced that silks and stable name registration fees have been eliminated at NYRA tracks and Finger Lakes, a move that has encouraged a small wave of new ownership groups to enter horses at this meet. This may account for some first-time connections and fresh stable names appearing on today's program. The practical handicapping implication is that some of today's maiden runners may represent lightly raced or newly registered operations, so workout lines and trainer patterns carry added weight.

The card is heavy on dirt routes and sprints, which fits Finger Lakes' traditional profile. Eight of the nine distances on today's program are contested on the dirt, with no turf activity scheduled. The card opens with a 1210-foot maiden special weight for fillies, offers several claiming battles in the mid-card, and closes with a pair of maiden events at longer distances.

Ferraro M. Anthony is the most represented trainer on the card with horses in Races 1, 3, 4, and 8, making his operation the dominant stable to track today. Baker Charlton fields two horses in Race 7. Barrow Paul also sends out runners in Races 5, 6, and 8. Trainer depth and consistency will be critical factors in evaluating today's action.

Weather Forecast and Track Conditions — Finger Lakes, September 22, 2026

The Finger Lakes region of upstate New York is experiencing typical late-September conditions. Forecasts for the Canandaigua, New York area on this date call for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-50s to low-60s Fahrenheit during racing hours. There is no meaningful precipitation expected during the afternoon, which should allow the track to maintain a consistent surface throughout the card.

The track was rated as fast over the weekend, and absent any overnight rainfall of consequence, the main track should be rated fast or good at first post. Finger Lakes' main track is a one-mile oval with a sandy loam composition that tends to dry out relatively quickly after light rain. September temperatures in this region do encourage some morning dew that can firm up the top layer by early afternoon, so the surface should be playing true and consistent by the time the first field breaks from the gate at 12:55 PM.

Any upgrade or downgrade from fast conditions would be meaningful, particularly in the longer routes where stamina runners can take advantage of a softer, more grinding surface versus the early-pace types that thrive on a dry, fast track.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis — Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes' one-mile oval historically plays with a mild inside bias in sprints, particularly in the six-furlong distance that makes up several of today's 1210-foot sprint races. Horses breaking from posts one through three in sprints tend to have a path advantage if they can maintain early position, particularly when the track is playing fast and the inside part of the oval receives the most traffic and packing.

In route races at this oval, the bias shifts somewhat. The extra ground lost by inside posts in routes — specifically in the one-mile and nine-furlong events — can actually work against horses that are forced to the rail early, as Finger Lakes' turns are relatively tight and can cause trouble for horses with no early foot. In routes, mid-post positions from three through six tend to perform well historically, as they offer a clean trip without excessive early ground loss.

Today's sprint races at 1210 feet (six furlongs) favor horses with early to mid-pace who can take advantage of the straightforward six-furlong layout. In particular, post one and two are worth watching in sprints if the horses breaking there have demonstrated the ability to clear or maintain position early.

In the 1760-foot routes (one mile) and the 1830-foot routes, the outside posts carry more risk on a one-mile track where the first turn comes quickly out of the gate. Posts six and beyond in route races today deserve extra scrutiny, as those runners will need to either compromise position early or use energy to secure rail position through the clubhouse turn.

The 1320-foot event in Race 7 represents a classic six-and-a-half furlong distance where pace bias plays a significant role. On a fast Finger Lakes surface, front-runners at this distance can be tough to reel in, particularly if the pace is unchallenged. Look for horses with early speed in that race to be given added emphasis.

RACE 1 — Post (12:55)/11:55/10:55/9:55 — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AOF | Purse $32,600

A six-furlong maiden special weight for fillies on the dirt to open the card. Seven fillies have been entered and the morning line is topped by a co-favorite scenario with Lisa Loves (POST 1) and My Bestie (POST 2) both installed at 2-1. This is a competitive spot and the race figures to be decided by early pace and trip.

Pace Analysis

With two morning line favorites drawing the inside posts, there is a real question about which horse will set the pace and which will stalk. Mi Amor Morena (POST 5) and Tiz's Cupcake (POST 7) both figure to be involved early based on their connections. Financial Star (POST 3) and Turbo Charger (POST 6) from the D'Alessandro barn represent a two-horse tandem from the same trainer that could complicate the pace scenario if either of them wants to put pressure on the leaders. A moderate to fast early pace is likely given the number of entries with speed potential, which could set up the race for a closer or a stalker to emerge late.

Key Contenders

Lisa Loves (POST 1) draws the rail in a six-furlong sprint and is trained by M. Anthony Ferraro, one of the meet's top conditioners. Keiber Coa riding from post one gives this filly an immediate tactical advantage — she can save ground along the rail if she can find early position, and the Ferraro barn has been sharp with its maiden runners this meet. At 2-1 on the morning line, the public is already on board, but the price reflects legitimate ability.

My Bestie (POST 2) is the other co-favorite from the Jonathan B. Buckley barn with S.X. Bridgmohan up. Bridgmohan is one of the more experienced jockeys at this level and brings a wealth of maiden race savvy to the assignment. Post 2 is an excellent draw in a six-furlong maiden sprint. If this filly can break alertly and work into a stalking position, she will be a major factor in the stretch run.

Mi Amor Morena (POST 5) is trained by Jose Corrales and has N.R. Alvarado in the saddle, a combination that warrants respect. At 3-1 on the morning line, she is the third choice and represents what appears to be a live outside shot at the favorites. Alvarado has been an active participant in recent Finger Lakes cards and his presence on a 3-1 shot in a seven-horse field suggests the connections believe this filly belongs.

Secondary Choices

Tiz's Cupcake (POST 7) trained by James Acquilano and ridden by M.A. Davila Jr. at 8-1 offers some appeal as a longshot sprinter who will close from behind if the pace develops into a hot early duel. Acquilano is a familiar name at the Finger Lakes oval and his runners deserve respect in maiden company when he commits his better-profile riders.

Financial Star (POST 3) at 6-1 is one of two D'Alessandro barn runners in this race. Connections entering two horses in the same maiden special weight race is worth noting — it suggests the barn has optionality but may not be supremely confident in either horse individually. Andre Shivnarine Worrie handles this filly and has strong meet statistics worth noting.

Longshots

Turbo Charger (POST 6), the second D'Alessandro runner at 15-1, is a remote longshot, though the barn's tandem entry creates a slight wheel play in the exotics. Mid Age Rage (POST 4) at 12-1 with Jacqueline Davis is the longest shot on the board and likely needs something unusual to happen in front of her to factor.

Selections

Win: My Bestie (POST 2) Place: Lisa Loves (POST 1) Show: Mi Amor Morena (POST 5)

Betting Strategy: Use My Bestie (POST 2) and Lisa Loves (POST 1) on top in the exacta with Mi Amor Morena (POST 5) underneath for a primary exacta box. In the Pick 3 opener, use the top two favorites with an add of Mi Amor Morena (POST 5) to cover the early leg.

RACE 2 — Post (1:24)/12:24/11:24/10:24 — 1830f | D | M | Md 11000 | BUN | Purse $17,000

A mile-and-an-eighth maiden claiming event for $11,000 on the dirt brings out six horses. Followill (POST 1) is the 2-1 favorite for the Ferraro barn. This is a route race for maiden claimers, and at Finger Lakes the distance and claiming level often produce races where the early pace is slow and develops into a stretch battle.

Pace Analysis

Six horses going a mile and an eighth in maiden claiming company typically produce a pace that is slower in the early stages as horses position themselves for the long run home. Followill (POST 1) from the rail may be asked to dictate terms, and with L.E. Perez in the saddle, there is plenty of tactical flexibility. Busy Busy Busy (POST 2) right beside him with Kevin Navarro is another potential speed element from the inside. If these two engage each other through the early portions of the race, the door opens for Batant (POST 3) and Wisecracker (POST 6) to close into the lane.

Key Contenders

Followill (POST 1) is the Ferraro-trained morning line favorite at 2-1. The Ferraro barn's continued presence at the top of today's card suggests a barn in strong form, and this horse from the rail post has the tactical advantage in a six-horse field. L.E. Perez is a reliable pilot in route races at this level and will likely have this horse in a good stalking position into the final turn.

Busy Busy Busy (POST 2) from the Buckley barn at 3-1 is a legitimate threat. Post 2 in a route at Finger Lakes is a clean position, and Navarro's recent form at the meet has been solid. The Buckley barn rarely enters horses without ammunition, and at 3-1 this horse offers fair value if she can outstay the favorite in the stretch.

Wisecracker (POST 6) trained by Lisa Reed at 4-1 is another logical contender. Steven Fret picks up this mount. Reed is a capable trainer at the Finger Lakes level and her runners frequently reward those who look past the surface prices.

Secondary Choices

Batant (POST 3) at 4-1 from the George Albright barn with Leonardo Corujo riding is co-priced with Wisecracker (POST 6). Albright is a seasoned Finger Lakes conditioner and Batant (POST 3) deserves a close look in a race where the pace may set up favorably for closers.

Strongest Link (POST 5) at 6-1 with O. Gomez in the irons has some appeal as the lone mid-price runner between the favorites and the longshots. Gomez is a capable hand at this circuit.

Longshots

Joe G Twentythree (POST 4) at 10-1 trained by Victor Dean III and ridden by Ben Joseph is the longest price in this field and appears to need everything to go perfectly to factor.

Selections

Win: Followill (POST 1) Place: Busy Busy Busy (POST 2) Show: Wisecracker (POST 6)

Betting Strategy: Exacta using Followill (POST 1) on top with Busy Busy Busy (POST 2) and Wisecracker (POST 6) underneath. A small saver with Batant (POST 3) on the undercard of trifectas is worth considering given the competitive pricing in this field.

RACE 3 — Post (1:53)/12:53/11:53/10:53 — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AOF | Purse $32,600

A second six-furlong maiden special weight for fillies on the dirt. Six fillies contest this race with Wildest Dreams (POST 5) installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite from the Jeremiah Englehart barn. This is a quality Finger Lakes maiden sprint and the morning line suggests a tight race between two or three legitimate contenders.

Pace Analysis

Wildest Dreams (POST 5) from the Englehart barn and Merry Meredith (POST 4) from the Ferraro operation are the two logical early-to-mid pace setters. Autumn Fire (POST 2) and Redzone Gal (POST 3) both project as near-pace types as well, setting up potentially for a true pace duel through the early fractions. If the fractions are hot, Words Of War (POST 1) and C Robin (POST 6) could get into the action late.

Key Contenders

Wildest Dreams (POST 5) at 2-1 is trained by Jeremiah Englehart, one of the more accomplished conditioners to place stock at the Finger Lakes oval. Andre Shivnarine Worrie handles this filly. Englehart's operation has been notably active at FL this meet and his maiden sprinters have performed well. Post 5 in a six-horse sprint is workable, and if this filly has the quality the morning line implies, she should handle the distance and company.

Redzone Gal (POST 3) at 3-1 is the second choice trained by Debra Breed with O. Gomez aboard. Post 3 is an ideal inside-but-clean draw in a six-furlong sprint, and Gomez has been an effective pilot on today's card. The Breed barn is a respected presence at Finger Lakes and this filly at a fair price deserves serious consideration.

Merry Meredith (POST 4) at 4-1 is a Ferraro-trained filly with Keiber Coa up, the same combination that tops Race 1 with Lisa Loves (POST 1). Ferraro saddling runners in both maiden sprints for fillies on today's card is a meaningful trainer angle — the barn clearly has live ammunition in this spot. At 4-1, Merry Meredith (POST 4) offers better value than the co-favorites in Race 1.

Secondary Choices

Autumn Fire (POST 2) at 4-1 from the D'Alessandro barn with C. Russell up is a legitimate secondary pick. D'Alessandro trains both Autumn Fire (POST 2) here and two runners in Race 1, showing the barn has quality maiden fillies entered today. At 4-1 on the morning line, this filly could easily outrun her odds.

Longshots

C Robin (POST 6) at 6-1 trained by Rachel Sells with Emanuel De Diego in the irons is worth a token look in trifectas. Words Of War (POST 1) at 8-1 trained by Luis Gutierrez with John Berrios aboard is the longest price in the field and figures to need plenty of help from the pace to factor.

Selections

Win: Wildest Dreams (POST 5) Place: Redzone Gal (POST 3) Show: Merry Meredith (POST 4)

Betting Strategy: Wildest Dreams (POST 5) over Redzone Gal (POST 3) exacta is the primary play. Trifecta key with Wildest Dreams (POST 5) on top, using Redzone Gal (POST 3), Merry Meredith (POST 4), and Autumn Fire (POST 2) in second and third. The fair morning line pricing in this race makes the trifecta the most attractive structure.

RACE 4 — Post (2:22)/1:22/12:22/11:22 — 1760f | D | C | Clm 4000n1y | BUN | Purse $11,200

A one-mile claiming race for $4,000 non-winners of one race in the last year brings out seven male runners. Four Top (POST 5) is the 2-1 morning line favorite from the always-active Ferraro barn. This is a bottom-level claiming event where form can be inconsistent and pace scenarios are difficult to project with precision.

Pace Analysis

Four Top (POST 5) from post five in a one-mile claiming route will need a clean break to avoid early ground loss. Interstate (POST 2) at 3-1 from the inside is a natural pace setter with the advantaged post. Thirty Oysters (POST 6) and Street Cop Officer (POST 7) from the outside posts present potential trouble if they attempt to rush forward and use energy getting to the front. The likely scenario is that Interstate (POST 2) presses the early pace, with Four Top (POST 5) positioned in stalking range, setting up a stretch duel between the two most experienced connections in the race.

Key Contenders

Four Top (POST 5) is the Ferraro morning line choice with L.E. Perez in the saddle. Ferraro and Perez have teamed effectively throughout this meet and the combination at a one-mile distance in claiming company gives this horse a significant edge in terms of handler quality. The 2-1 price reflects the public's respect for the tandem.

Interstate (POST 2) at 3-1 trained by Angel Diaz-Valdez with Jeremias Flores riding has the post advantage in this mile race. The Diaz-Valdez barn operates quietly but effectively at this level. Post 2 in a one-mile dirt route is the most coveted draw, and if Interstate (POST 2) can get the front early, he could be difficult to catch with a slow pace.

Thirty Oysters (POST 6) at 4-1 with Joel Cruz riding for Jose Armando Rohena offers some appeal. Cruz has been a consistent presence on today's card and at 4-1 the price is competitive. Rohena is a local trainer who knows this oval.

Secondary Choices

Renew The Blue (POST 3) at 5-1 with Steven Fret up for the Dana Saul barn is another honest contender in this field. Post 3 is a clean position in a one-mile route and Fret has been professional throughout the card. The Saul barn has produced winners at this claiming level during the meet.

Street Cop Officer (POST 7) at 5-1 with Jacqueline Davis up for Eduardo Maver is a runner to consider in the exotics, though the wide post in a one-mile route is a concern.

Longshots

Milagroso (POST 1) at 10-1 for Julius Ashley with Laird Bailey riding is likely going to have early speed from the rail but may have trouble sustaining the effort for a full mile. Iron Man Ira (POST 4) at 15-1 trained by Matthew Clarke is the outsider of the field and appears to have little to recommend at this price.

Selections

Win: Four Top (POST 5) Place: Interstate (POST 2) Show: Thirty Oysters (POST 6)

Betting Strategy: Exacta box Four Top (POST 5) and Interstate (POST 2). Add Thirty Oysters (POST 6) to a trifecta below those two. At this claiming level, prices in the exotics can be generous even with short-priced favorites, making the trifecta the best structure for this race.

RACE 5 — Post (2:51)/1:51/12:51/11:51 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 5000n2l | BUM | Purse $13,700

The largest field of the day goes to post in Race 5 — eleven fillies and mares contesting a six-furlong maiden claiming sprint. With four horses at 25-1 on the morning line, this is a race where identifying the genuine contenders from the filler is critical. Two trainers each have two horses entered: Thalia Areche saddles Immortal Poet (POST 5) and Lady Of Mercia (POST 9), while the Baker and Acquilano barns are involved in other races. The public is likely to single out Fairweatherlover (POST 6) and Tiz Goldy (POST 10) at 4-1 as co-favorites.

Pace Analysis

Eleven horses going six furlongs on dirt will create a complicated early pace scenario. Several of these runners figure to want front position, and the wider posts are going to require significant early energy expenditure to establish rail position. Look for Immortal Poet (POST 5), Fairweatherlover (POST 6), and Lady Banker (POST 11) from the outside to be involved in early positioning. A contentious early pace would favor closers like Maizey Blue (POST 8) or Ring Of The Rise (POST 4) if they can find a stalking position within striking range.

Key Contenders

Fairweatherlover (POST 6) at 4-1 for the Miller-Saul barn with Joel Cruz in the irons is one of the two morning line co-favorites. Post 6 in a large-field sprint is manageable, and Miller-Saul has shown the ability to place horses effectively at this level. Cruz has been riding with confidence today and this filly deserves respect at the top of the market.

Tiz Goldy (POST 10) at 4-1 for James Acquilano with Emanuel De Diego up is the other co-favorite. The outside draw is problematic in an 11-horse sprint, but Acquilano's runners at Finger Lakes tend to be ready when they show up on the program. If Tiz Goldy (POST 10) can find a clean trip from the outside, she could prove best in the stretch.

Immortal Poet (POST 5) at 5-1 for Thalia Areche with N.R. Alvarado is a horse to take seriously. Post 5 is a reasonable draw, Alvarado is one of the more capable jockeys on today's card, and the Areche barn entering two horses in this race suggests a stable with confidence in at least one of their entries. Immortal Poet (POST 5) appears to be the primary barn choice.

Secondary Choices

Ring Of The Rise (POST 4) at 6-1 for Linda Dixon with M.A. Davila Jr. riding draws a clean post and offers fair value as the third-best priced horse in the race. Davila has been active on the card and this filly at 6-1 could find her way into the trifecta.

Lady Banker (POST 11) at 5-1 for D'Alessandro with L.E. Perez up rounds out the key secondary selections. An 11-post draw in a six-furlong sprint is never ideal, but D'Alessandro and Perez have already shown up on today's card with live ammunition. At 5-1 off a tough draw, the price may inflate on the board.

Maizey Blue (POST 8) at 8-1 for Luis Gutierrez with Reylu Gutierrez in the irons adds a trainer-jockey family connection that sometimes produces overlooked winners at this level.

Longshots

Wildcat Annie (POST 3) at 12-1 for Tamara Housel with J.M. Rohena up, No Factor (POST 7) at 12-1 for Lisa Reed with Worrie up, and Stella Brown (POST 2) at 25-1 for Eduardo Maver are all remote plays. Outta The Cloud (POST 1), Lady Of Mercia (POST 9), and Secord (POST 5 — note: this is the Race 8 number; in Race 5, LADY OF MERCIA is POST 9) are all 25-1 and unlikely to factor unless something extraordinary occurs at the front.

Selections

Win: Fairweatherlover (POST 6) Place: Immortal Poet (POST 5) Show: Tiz Goldy (POST 10)

Betting Strategy: In an 11-horse maiden claimer, trifectas offer the most value. Key Fairweatherlover (POST 6) on top with Immortal Poet (POST 5), Ring Of The Rise (POST 4), and Tiz Goldy (POST 10) underneath. Spread the trifecta to include Lady Banker (POST 11) and Maizey Blue (POST 8) for a wider net. At this claiming level with a large field, even a $1 trifecta box of four horses can return meaningful value.

RACE 6 — Post (3:20)/2:20/1:20/12:20 — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $32,600

The third maiden special weight sprint on the dirt brings out eight males going six furlongs. This is a quality race for the Finger Lakes circuit — the $32,600 purse attracts genuine maiden horses from established connections. Speightful Storm (POST 8) from the Harold James Bond barn is the 2-1 morning line favorite, with Charlie My Boy (POST 7) from the Barrow barn installed at 3-1.

Pace Analysis

Eight horses going six furlongs creates a lively pace picture. Charlie My Boy (POST 7) and Speightful Storm (POST 8) are going to break from the two widest posts in this race, meaning both will need to use early energy to establish favorable position. Gitole (POST 4) from a clean mid-post position has an advantage if he has early foot. Wingo Starr (POST 3) also draws a clean position inside. The pace could be legitimately fast early if Charlie My Boy (POST 7) and Speightful Storm (POST 8) both want to clear to a stalking position, which might set up a late-running type.

Key Contenders

Speightful Storm (POST 8) at 2-1 for Harold James Bond with Reylu Gutierrez in the saddle is the public's choice despite drawing the outside post. The Bond barn is a respected Finger Lakes operation and Speightful Storm (POST 8) appears to be the most talented horse on paper in this field if the early positioning works out. Gutierrez will need to navigate the first turn carefully from outside.

Charlie My Boy (POST 7) at 3-1 for Paul Barrow with Jeremias Flores up is the second choice and the Barrow barn is represented multiple times on today's card, suggesting a stable in strong form. At 3-1 from post seven, this horse needs clean early positioning to be effective.

Gitole (POST 4) at 4-1 for Charlton Baker with Joel Cruz riding draws a clean mid-post in a six-furlong sprint. Baker sends runners in Race 7 as well, suggesting strong barn presence today. At 4-1 from an advantaged post, Gitole (POST 4) may be the best value in this race.

Secondary Choices

Wingo Starr (POST 3) at 5-1 for William Bartlett with Jacqueline Davis riding has a clean post draw and offers some value. Davis has been active today without a major score, and this could be her opportunity.

Bootsy's A Rascal (POST 1) at 8-1 for the Buckley barn with Kevin Navarro is an intriguing longshot from the rail. The inside post in a six-furlong sprint for maidens is a mixed blessing — the horse saves ground but must break alertly to avoid traffic. Navarro is experienced enough to make this work.

Longshots

Connect And Cruise (POST 6) at 10-1 for the Barrow barn with Worrie up is the second Barrow barn runner in this race. Similar to the D'Alessandro tandem in Race 1, having two runners from the same barn in a maiden special weight is worth noting for exotic wagering. Mr. Pools (POST 5) at 12-1 for the Chris Englehart barn is a distant longshot, as is Leper King (POST 2) at 12-1 for Rachel Sells.

Selections

Win: Speightful Storm (POST 8) Place: Gitole (POST 4) Show: Charlie My Boy (POST 7)

Betting Strategy: The exacta pairing Speightful Storm (POST 8) over Gitole (POST 4) offers the best value if Speightful Storm (POST 8) wins and the second public choice Charlie My Boy (POST 7) misses the board. A trifecta key of Speightful Storm (POST 8) on top with Gitole (POST 4), Charlie My Boy (POST 7), and Wingo Starr (POST 3) underneath is recommended.

RACE 7 — Post (3:49)/2:49/1:49/12:49 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 5000b | BUN | Purse $14,000

Ten horses go six and a half furlongs in an open claiming race for $5,000. Sutton Breeze (POST 9) at 3-1 is the morning line favorite for the Dana Saul barn with Jose Baez in the irons. Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) and Ava's Uncle Billy (POST 5) are co-priced at 4-1. This is one of the most competitive races on today's card and the large field at six and a half furlongs creates a pace puzzle worth careful analysis.

Pace Analysis

Six and a half furlongs is a distance where early pace control is critical at Finger Lakes. With ten horses, there will be early chaos as runners jockey for position around the first turn. Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) from a mid-post position and Ava's Uncle Billy (POST 5) just outside him are both likely to want to establish position early. Emerald Forest (POST 2) from an inside post could also factor in the early fractions. If the early pace is brisk through the first quarter and half-mile, closers from the back of the field have a legitimate shot at the wire.

Key Contenders

Sutton Breeze (POST 9) at 3-1 for Dana Saul with Jose Baez is the morning line choice despite a challenging outside post in a ten-horse field at a distance that rewards early position. The Saul barn's confidence in this runner suggests strong recent form, and Baez is capable of navigating a wide trip if the horse has the class to overcome post position disadvantage.

Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) at 4-1 for Jose Corrales with N.R. Alvarado is a logical pace type from a clean mid-post. Alvarado is one of the stronger jockeys at this meet and the Corrales barn handles its runners well. This horse at 4-1 from post 4 in six and a half furlongs may represent the best overall value in Race 7.

Ava's Uncle Billy (POST 5) at 4-1 for Chris Englehart with Worrie up is the second of the co-favorites. The Englehart name appears multiple times today (Chris Englehart in Race 6, Jeremiah Englehart in Race 3), suggesting a family operation with multiple horses ready to fire. Post 5 is manageable and Worrie has been effective throughout the card.

Secondary Choices

Emerald Forest (POST 2) at 6-1 for Charlton Baker with L.E. Perez is a legitimate secondary choice. Baker also sends Flying In Style (POST 10) in this race, making it a two-horse Baker entry. Post 2 in a six-and-a-half furlong race gives this horse the best tactical position in the field, and at 6-1 the price is appealing.

Coach Bahe (POST 7) at 8-1 for the Buckley barn with Navarro is another runner to consider for trifecta coverage. The Buckley barn has been active today and Navarro pairs well with this trainer's horses.

Longshots

G Munning (POST 1) at 10-1 for Timothy Murphy with M.A. Davila is a rail runner worth watching in an early-pace scenario. O P Firecracker (POST 3) at 12-1 for Acquilano with Cruz is another longshot from an established barn that sometimes produces surprise winners. Swift Bank (POST 8) at 12-1 for the Miller-Saul barn with Fret up and Deputy Tramon (POST 6) at 15-1 for Richard Shaffer with Gomez are unlikely factors. Flying In Style (POST 10) at 15-1 from the outside is a difficult position in a ten-horse field.

Selections

Win: Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) Place: Sutton Breeze (POST 9) Show: Emerald Forest (POST 2)

Betting Strategy: Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) represents the best combination of class, post, jockey, and price in this field. Trifecta key: Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) on top with Sutton Breeze (POST 9), Emerald Forest (POST 2), and Ava's Uncle Billy (POST 5) underneath. The wide morning line spread in this race could produce a generous trifecta price even with a chalk winner.

RACE 8 — Post (4:18)/3:18/2:18/1:18 — 1760f | D | M | Md 5000 | BUM | Purse $13,500

The finale is a one-mile maiden claiming event for $5,000 with eight fillies and mares. Mizty Fog (POST 2) and Wayward Queen (POST 8) share the 2-1 co-favoritism, with Spicey Ticey (POST 7) at 3-1 rounding out the main body of the market. This is a classic closing race scenario at a regional oval — a low-level maiden mile for mares where anything can happen.

Pace Analysis

One mile in maiden claiming company for mares typically features a slow, plodding early pace as riders try to conserve their horses for the long stretch run. Wayward Queen (POST 8) from the widest post will need to use energy early to establish position, while Mizty Fog (POST 2) from an inside post is well-placed to save ground and stalk. Spicey Ticey (POST 7) from post 7 will likely sit just off the pace and use her closing kick in the stretch. If the pace is genuinely slow, the front-runner from inside could steal this race.

Key Contenders

Mizty Fog (POST 2) at 2-1 for the Miller-Saul barn with Jose Baez in the saddle is the co-favorite and draws the best post in this field for a one-mile route. The Miller-Saul barn has been productive this meet and Mizty Fog (POST 2) from post 2 with Baez's route experience gives her a strong tactical advantage. This is the most straightforward selection on the closing card.

Wayward Queen (POST 8) at 2-1 for Assaf Ronen with Jacqueline Davis up is the co-favorite from the widest post. The Ronen barn is less frequently represented at Finger Lakes which makes handicapping the horse more difficult, but the public's respect at 2-1 suggests genuine ability. Davis will need to navigate the first turn efficiently from outside.

Spicey Ticey (POST 7) at 3-1 for Tamara Housel with Keiber Coa in the saddle rounds out the main contention. Post 7 in a one-mile race is not ideal, but if Spicey Ticey (POST 7) has the best raw ability in this field, the trip could work itself out. Coa has been one of the most active and effective jockeys on today's card.

Secondary Choices

Only La Duss (POST 3) at 5-1 for Thalia Areche with Kevin Navarro is a reasonable secondary pick. Post 3 in a one-mile route is a clean position and Navarro brings experience. The Areche barn, also active in Race 5, clearly has multiple live entries on today's card.

Dancinwiththeboys (POST 4) at 12-1 for Ferraro Michael with Luis Pena up is worth a minimal trifecta inclusion given the Ferraro connection. Note that this appears to be a different Ferraro than M. Anthony Ferraro who trains most of the other barn entries today, though the connection to the Finger Lakes circuit is notable.

Longshots

Pippa's Song (POST 1) at 20-1 for Katlynn Gutterson with Worrie is an extreme longshot, as is Frosty's Smile (POST 6) at 20-1 for Barrow with Gomez and Secord (POST 5) at 20-1 for Jose Merced with Jose Ventura up. These horses require too much to go right to merit wagering emphasis.

Selections

Win: Mizty Fog (POST 2) Place: Spicey Ticey (POST 7) Show: Wayward Queen (POST 8)

Betting Strategy: In a co-favorite scenario with both public choices at 2-1, the trifecta is where the value lies. Key Mizty Fog (POST 2) and Spicey Ticey (POST 7) in the top two spots with Wayward Queen (POST 8) and Only La Duss (POST 3) in third. An exacta box of the three main contenders — Mizty Fog (POST 2), Spicey Ticey (POST 7), and Wayward Queen (POST 8) — covers the most likely outcomes.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Keiber Coa is the busiest jockey on today's card with mounts in Race 1 on Lisa Loves (POST 1), Race 3 on Merry Meredith (POST 4), and Race 8 on Spicey Ticey (POST 7). Coa has maintained strong win and in-the-money percentages throughout this Finger Lakes meet and his presence on short-priced horses should be taken seriously. His engagement on Spicey Ticey (POST 7) at 3-1 in the closing race is particularly notable given that the Housel barn does not typically engage top riders without reason.

N.R. Alvarado appears on three horses today: Mi Amor Morena (POST 5) in Race 1, Immortal Poet (POST 5) in Race 5, and Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) in Race 7. Alvarado's day-long presence on competitive prices — none of his mounts are shorter than 3-1 — suggests an agent who has booked a strong book at fair odds. His most interesting mount is Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) in Race 7, where the post position and race conditions align well.

L.E. Perez rides in Races 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7, making him one of the most heavily booked jockeys on the card. His mounts include Followill (POST 1) in Race 2 for the Ferraro barn and Four Top (POST 5) in Race 4, both morning line favorites. Perez's workload today reflects his standing as one of the meet's top performers.

Joel Cruz has a full book today with mounts in Races 4, 5, 6, and 7. Cruz on Fairweatherlover (POST 6) in Race 5 and Gitole (POST 4) in Race 6 are both competitively-priced horses with clean post positions. He is one of the riders to follow throughout the afternoon.

Andre Shivnarine Worrie is another jockey with a heavy book today, riding in Races 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8. His most notable assignments include Financial Star (POST 3) in Race 1, Wildest Dreams (POST 5) in Race 3, and Ava's Uncle Billy (POST 5) in Race 7. Worrie's presence on Wildest Dreams (POST 5) as the morning line favorite in Race 3 is a positive sign.

Jacqueline Davis rounds out the active jockey rotation with mounts in Races 1, 4, 6, and 8. Her mount on Wayward Queen (POST 8) in the closing race is her most prominent assignment of the day.

Trainer Notes and Insights

M. Anthony Ferraro is without question the most significant training presence on today's card, saddling Lisa Loves (POST 1) in Race 1, Merry Meredith (POST 4) in Race 3, Four Top (POST 5) in Race 4, and a runner in Race 8. The consistent booking of top jockeys — Coa, Perez, and Davila — across his entries suggests a barn intent on winning multiple races today. Four Top (POST 5) in Race 4 looks like the barn's best chance for a victory, and trainers who come to the oval multiple times on a single Monday card typically do so with confidence.

Paul Barrow fields three horses today: Strongest Link (POST 5) in Race 2, Charlie My Boy (POST 7) in Race 6, Connect And Cruise (POST 6) also in Race 6, and Frosty's Smile (POST 6) in Race 8. The Barrow barn's tandem entry in Race 6 is an interesting wagering angle. Charlie My Boy (POST 7) at 3-1 appears to be the primary runner in that race, while Connect And Cruise (POST 6) at 10-1 is the secondary option. Barrow trainers with multiple entries sometimes use the secondary runner as a pace setter for the primary.

Charlton Baker trains Gitole (POST 4) in Race 6 and Emerald Forest (POST 2) and Flying In Style (POST 10) in Race 7. Multiple entries in Race 7 from Baker suggest the barn believes the race is winnable. Emerald Forest (POST 2) at 6-1 with Perez and the advantaged post 2 appears to be the barn's primary runner in Race 7.

Thalia Areche sends out Immortal Poet (POST 5) and Lady Of Mercia (POST 9) in Race 5 and Only La Duss (POST 3) in Race 8. The Areche barn's dual entry in Race 5 bears watching: Immortal Poet (POST 5) at 5-1 with Alvarado is the logical primary runner while Lady Of Mercia (POST 9) at 25-1 appears to be a pace factor or secondary consideration.

Ralph D'Alessandro trains runners in Races 1, 3, and 5, showing broad coverage across multiple race types today. His maiden sprinters Financial Star (POST 3) and Turbo Charger (POST 6) in Race 1, along with Autumn Fire (POST 2) in Race 3 and Lady Banker (POST 11) in Race 5, suggest a barn with depth in maiden fillies and mares.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Pick 5 at Finger Lakes on a Monday card is typically offered at a low base takeout and with a small field can generate meaningful payouts. Looking at Races 4 through 8 as the most likely Pick 5 sequence on today's card, the logical structure is:

Race 4: Single Four Top (POST 5) Race 5: Use Fairweatherlover (POST 6), Immortal Poet (POST 5), and Tiz Goldy (POST 10) Race 6: Use Speightful Storm (POST 8) and Gitole (POST 4) Race 7: Use Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) and Sutton Breeze (POST 9) Race 8: Use Mizty Fog (POST 2) and Spicey Ticey (POST 7)

This structure creates a $1 Pick 5 ticket of 1x3x2x2x2 = 24 combinations at $24 base cost. If the Ferraro-trained Four Top (POST 5) wins Race 4 and one or more of the longshots in the middle races hits, the payoff could be substantial. The low-level nature of Races 5 through 8 means upsets are common and Pick 5 carryovers or guaranteed pools at this circuit can produce three-figure payouts on a moderate investment.

Best single-race value play of the card: Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) in Race 7 at 4-1 with Alvarado from a clean post in a competitive six-and-a-half furlong claiming race. The combination of quality jockey, favorable post, and trainer form makes this the strongest value on the card relative to the likely morning line price.

Best exacta value: Race 6 using Speightful Storm (POST 8) over Gitole (POST 4). If the race unfolds as projected and the two heavy outside favorites Speightful Storm (POST 8) and Charlie My Boy (POST 7) get into each other's way in the early going, Gitole (POST 4) from the clean post 4 could steal the race or finish a clear second. An exacta of Speightful Storm (POST 8) over Gitole (POST 4) at those prices could return 12-1 or better.

Best trifecta structure: Race 7 with the large ten-horse field and wide spread of morning line prices. A $1 trifecta key of Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) over Sutton Breeze (POST 9), Emerald Forest (POST 2), Ava's Uncle Billy (POST 5), and Coach Bahe (POST 7) provides broad coverage at a manageable ticket cost and could return significant value given the competitive nature of the field.

The Pick 3 in Races 6 through 8 using Speightful Storm (POST 8) and Gitole (POST 4), Artillery Gunnar (POST 4) and Sutton Breeze (POST 9), and Mizty Fog (POST 2) and Spicey Ticey (POST 7) creates a 2x2x2 ticket of 8 combinations at $1 each — a $8 Pick 3 ticket that covers the most logical outcomes in the closing sequence and could produce a healthy return if one or more of the secondary choices prevails.

Good luck at the windows. Finger Lakes on a fall Monday offers value that the big circuits can rarely match — take advantage.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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