Posted inTracks

Santa Anita Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 20, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inTracks

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

Eight races are carded for Santa Anita Park this Friday afternoon, ranging from a $17,000 maiden claimer at the bottom of the card to a pair of $70,000 allowance optional claiming events that headline the day's wagering interest. The card is a mix of turf and dirt action, with Races 1, 3, and 6 contested on the turf course (rail set at 30 feet), while Races 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8 run on the main dirt track. The day features four maiden events, one straight claiming race, and two allowance optional claiming contests. The races span distances from 5.5 furlongs to one mile, offering diverse wagering opportunities throughout the card.

Notable from the scratch sheet: Hungover is out of Race 2 for veterinary reasons, leaving a field of seven. Jasmine was scratched from Race 5 as an also-eligible, also trimming that field to seven. Player B drew the veterinary scratch from Race 6, reducing that large field to eleven. In Race 7, One Smokin Dude is listed as re-entered. All analyses below reflect these confirmed scratches.​

Weather and Track Conditions

The National Weather Service has issued an Extreme Heat Warning for the Arcadia/Pasadena area, in effect through 8:00 PM PDT on March 20. Temperatures are forecast to reach a high near 100°F, which is 20 to 30 degrees above normal for this time of year and may approach record territory for the date. Skies will be sunny throughout, with light winds out of the south-southwest at 5 to 10 mph developing in the afternoon. There is zero precipitation in the forecast, and humidity will remain very low.

For horseplayers, extreme heat of this magnitude at post time can be a meaningful factor. Horses with a tendency to “wash out” or become anxious before loading may expend vital energy before the gates open. Watch the walking ring and paddock closely for any signs of excessive sweating or agitation, particularly in younger maidens who are racing for the first or second time. The main track is listed as fast, and given the bone-dry conditions with no recent rainfall, it should remain a conventional fast surface throughout the card. Turf course conditions are expected to be firm to good, consistent with the dry Southern California winter-spring weather pattern that has characterized this meet. The turf rail is set at 30 feet out for all three turf races.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

According to Santa Anita's official winning post position data covering December 28, 2025 through March 1, 2026, the main dirt track does not exhibit a pronounced bias but shows some tendencies worth noting. On dirt sprints, posts 3 and 4 have been the strongest performers at 18% and 17% win rates, respectively, while post 2 has been comparatively weak at only 10%. Post 8 has also shown a respectable 17% rate, which is worth noting in multi-horse sprint fields.​

On the turf course, the sprint stats reveal a distinct preference for the inside posts, with posts 1 and 5 leading at 18% each. Critically, post 8 in turf sprints has been nearly shut out at only 5% — an extremely poor showing that should factor heavily into Race 1 and Race 6 analysis. The wider rail at 30 feet does help inner post horses get better early position without the typical rail disadvantage on tight turf courses. For turf routes at one mile and over, posts 3 and 4 are significantly stronger at 23% and 20% respectively, which is extremely relevant for the Race 3 analysis. Post 5 in turf routes has produced only a 3% win rate for the current meet, a significant negative to note.​

On the main track, pace has been running relatively honest this meet — speed has not been overwhelmingly dominant, and closers are getting their share of winners. In sprint dirt races, early position along the rail remains slightly favorable, but the track is genuinely fair for horses with a variety of running styles.

Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Turf

Post Time: 1:00 PM PT

Pace Analysis

This six-horse maiden field on the turf sprint will likely see a moderate pace scenario. Kinzlee'scharisma (1) is a confirmed front-runner who was working the lead in her last few outings. Ou La La (6) is an unraced debut runner from the powerful Richard Mandella barn, and debut runners from elite outfits can show unexpected early speed. The pace should be manageable, which historically benefits the closer and stalker types over the sprint distance on the turf. The presence of only one confirmed speed horse suggests the leaders may not be pushed hard enough to flatten themselves, though Rethink (2) pressing from off the pace could produce a competitive middle-pace scenario. Turf sprint pace at 6 furlongs is typically quick enough that frontrunners need to be gifted a slow opening quarter to hold on.

Key Contenders

Fancy Lady (3), a 3-year-old filly for trainer Michael W. McCarthy and jockey Juan Hernandez, is the most compelling contender on a limited record. In just one career start, she finished second in a field of eight at 6.5 furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita, showing enough raw ability to make her a serious threat here. Handicappers have installed her at or near the morning line top as the most accomplished young filly in the field relative to her starts. Hernandez is the dominant rider at this meet and his presence on a young McCarthy trainee elevates the probability of a sharp effort. McCarthy runs a 17% win rate at the current meet and pairs well with Hernandez throughout the card.​

Rethink (2), a 4-year-old filly for Philip D'Amato piloted by Antonio Fresu, arrives with five starts and a steady closing profile, posting figures of 28-57-85 according to available speed metrics. Her experience edge over the younger 3-year-olds is meaningful, particularly at this sprint distance where knowing pace is critical. D'Amato is one of the elite turf trainers in Southern California and Fresu has posted a solid 15% win rate at the current meet.

Secondary Choices

Ou La La (6) has drawn significant attention from handicappers as a debut runner from trainer Richard Mandella, one of the sport's great turf conditioners. Mandella is consistently patient with his horses and when he sends a first-timer at this level, it usually means the horse is ready. The morning line of 3/1 for a debut runner on the turf against experienced horses is a meaningful signal from the morning line maker. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo has been riding confidently with a 23% win rate at the current meet. The only knock here is that Mandella's recent results show a 7% win rate in the current conditions, and debut runners carry inherent risk.​

Prestige Fungson (4), a 4-year-old for trainer Peter Eurton, has eight career starts at this track with a 0-2-2 record. While she hasn't broken through, the consistency of the place and show performances suggests she always runs her race. Eurton has posted a 10% win rate but a 50% in-the-money rate at the current meet, and Armando Ayuso rides with discipline.​

Longshots

Kinzlee'scharisma (1) for trainer Daniel M. Jensen under Tyler Baze posted 5 career starts with a 0-1-3 record including several thirds at this distance and surface. She figures to set a comfortable pace from the rail under the 30-foot turf setup, but her 0% win rate with Jensen and Baze's modest 8% win rate at the current meet make her a tough win bet. She could easily get place or show money as the pace setter. Song And Dance (5) makes her career debut for trainer Ruben Gomez with the relatively unfamiliar jockey Cesar Belmont aboard. The Gomez barn has posted a 0% win rate in the current meet sample, and debut runners from lesser-regarded operations with no established turf breeding information are speculative at best. She rates as a deep longshot with minimal basis for optimism unless she shows exceptional talent in the paddock.​

Betting Strategy

This race has a clear framework: Fancy Lady (3) to win, with the Rethink (2)/Ou La La (6) combination underneath. An exacta of 3-2 and 3-6 makes sense. A trifecta box of 3, 2, and 6 is a reasonable cost-effective structure. Prestige Fungson (4) can be added as a fourth leg in superfectas at attractive prices. Fade the turf bias against posts 6 on sprints — but Ou La La's talent-first angle from Mandella overrides the statistical post disadvantage in this case.

Selections

Win: Fancy Lady (3)
Place: Rethink (2)
Show: Ou La La (6)

Race 2 — Maiden Claiming $50,000, 5.5 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time: 1:33 PM PT

Pace Analysis

Hungover is scratched, leaving seven California-bred 3-year-old male maidens. This figures to be a fast-paced affair, as several of these horses have shown front-running or stalking tendencies in previous outings. Debbies Gettinghot (1) is the confirmed fastest early runner per speed metrics, and Kiki Ride (5) has shown consistent pressing style. With multiple horses capable of going to the front in a 5.5-furlong sprint, the pace could be quick enough to set up a closer. However, in lower-level maiden races, pace often collapses due to poor horsemanship from young or inexperienced horses, and closers don't always get the benefit they might in open company. This is fundamentally a speed-favored trip scenario if the early fractions are honest.

Key Contenders

Ottis Betts (4), a 3-year-old colt trained by Ronald W. Ellis and ridden by Florent Geroux, has been on the board in all four career starts with a perfect 0-0-4 show record, posting figures of 19-44-72. He has raced consistently at six furlongs on the dirt at Santa Anita and has been beaten by under two lengths in his best efforts. The Ellis-Geroux combination is intriguing given that Geroux has been one of the hottest riders in Southern California since arriving in mid-February, posting a 5-for-25 record at Santa Anita that includes multiple stakes wins. This may be Geroux's best shot at a maiden victory on the card. The 3/1 morning line price offers fair value.​

Kiki Ride (5), trained by Craig Anthony Lewis and ridden by Armando Ayuso, has logged ten career starts with a 0-2-5 record, including two second-place finishes. He ran second at six furlongs on the dirt at Santa Anita in his most recent start and has shown consistent form at this track and distance. Ayuso has been steady with a 14% win rate at the current meet and a 47% in-the-money rate.​

Secondary Choices

Debbies Gettinghot (1) for trainer Debbie Winick shows the fastest early speed in this field, with figures of 19-44-72 and ten career starts showing 0-2-3. The Winick barn is modest in terms of win rate, and jockey Cristobal Herrera carries only a 12% win rate at the meet. However, this horse's front-running style from post 1 in a sprint gives him an inherent edge, and at a lower-level maiden claimer, cheap speed can sometimes prevail over better horses who never get untracked. Expect him to be on or near the lead throughout, and if the pace isn't contested, he could steal it.​

Rollinwithpolan (2) makes his career debut for trainer Doug O'Neill with Emisael Jaramillo up. O'Neill is one of the more well-known Southern California trainers with a 17% win rate in the current meet sample, and Jaramillo has been sharp with a 32% win rate at the meet by one source's metrics. Debut runners for O'Neill with live jockeys have a history of running competitive.​

Longshots

Shady Gem (7) makes just his second career start for Jeff Bonde after a sixth-place debut at six furlongs. Bonde runs a 7% win rate at the current meet, and Armando Aguilar is a journeyman with a modest book. My Man Joe Roldan (3) under Kyle Frey for trainer Alfredo Marquez finished fourth in his only start. Marquez shows a 62% in-the-money rate from a small sample, and Frey is riding well enough at 16% wins. He is a very speculative alternative in exotics. I'malwaysthirsty (6) for Edwin G. Alvarez showed two show finishes from five starts including a third at 6 furlongs on the dirt here, but the deep closer style is the hardest to win with at this level and distance.​

Betting Strategy

Wheel Ottis Betts (4) in win position of exactas and trifectas. Use Kiki Ride (5) and Debbies Gettinghot (1) underneath in that order. A trifecta of 4 with 5/1 with 1/5/2 is a workable structure for moderate investment. Rollinwithpolan (2) deserves a small part in exotic backup tickets given the live O'Neill-Jaramillo angle.

Selections

Win: Ottis Betts (4)
Place: Kiki Ride (5)
Show: Debbies Gettinghot (1)

Race 3 — Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf

Post Time: 2:05 PM PT

Pace Analysis

The six-horse maiden field at one mile on the turf sets up as a tactical affair with several horses that prefer stalking or mid-pack positions. Call Me Cory (6) has shown the ability to press from just off the lead in his most recent trips and figures to be involved early. Post Game (3) is a confirmed stalker with 17 career starts — an unusual amount of experience for a maiden — and understands pace dynamics extremely well. The opening half-mile on the turf at one mile will likely unfold at a moderate tempo, with the final quarter setting up for a legitimate stretch drive. Sabino Canyon (2) is the Baffert debut runner and could show unexpected early foot. This looks like a perfect closer's pace setup given the turf route configuration and the heavily experienced Post Game (3) controlling early tempo.

Key Contenders

Call Me Cory (6), trained by Ryan Hanson and ridden by Adrian Escobedo, has compiled a remarkable 0-2-4 record from only four career starts with a 100% in-the-money rate. His speed figures are the highest in the field at 35-65-93, and his ability to lead or press has been consistent. His two second-place finishes and four show efforts at Santa Anita demonstrate he belongs in this company. The knock on this horse is trainer Hanson, who carries only a 3% win rate at the current meet, and Escobedo has been similarly quiet on the win side. However, the pure statistical performance of this horse, including the highest figures in the field and the pristine in-the-money rate, makes him difficult to fade. Handicappers have installed him as the analytical top selection.

Post Game (3) for Peter Eurton under Armando Ayuso brings the most experience in the field with 17 starts and an astounding 0-0-11 show record. He is essentially the safest show bet on the card. Eurton posts a 22% win rate at the meet with a 48% in-the-money rate, and Ayuso is riding well. This horse knows how to run and clearly performs in this company — he simply hasn't found the winner's circle yet. At some point that changes, and today's six-horse field against mostly inexperienced rivals is a prime opportunity.

Secondary Choices

Let's Be Frank (5), a 3-year-old for trainer Michael W. McCarthy and jockey Hector Isaac Berrios, has posted a 0-0-2 record from three starts and carries the fastest early speed rating in the field at debut metrics of 18-38-60. McCarthy is the type of trainer who wins maiden special weight races at Santa Anita, and Berrios has a solid 21% win rate this meet at 52% in the money. The Breeders' Cup-caliber connection here, combined with the move to a turf route which may suit his breeding better, makes him a legitimate threat. The 2/1 morning line marks him as the handicapper's morning line favorite.​

Sabino Canyon (2), trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Florent Geroux, is a debut runner that commands respect simply due to connections. Baffert has posted a 30% win rate at Santa Anita meets in recent years, and Geroux's hot start in California gives this combination added credibility. A first-time starter for Baffert on the turf at a route distance suggests the horse has shown enough in the mornings to merit this placement. At 3/1, the price is fair for the risk of a debut runner.​

Longshots

One More Time (4) carries Bob Baffert's second entry in this race with Juan Hernandez up. He has four starts, all on the dirt, and is moving to the turf for the first time. The 0-0-0 record at 6 and 7 furlongs on the dirt doesn't inspire confidence, but blinkers are listed on this horse and the Baffert-Hernandez pairing keeps him in the conversation. Imagineer (1) is a 5-year-old ridgling with seven career starts and no money earned. The 30/1 morning line accurately reflects a horse that has not shown an ability to compete at this level. He is a throw-out on handicapping grounds.​

Betting Strategy

Post position bias strongly favors posts 3 and 4 in turf routes at the current meet. Post Game (3) fits perfectly into that statistical advantage. An exacta of 6-3 is the consensus play, but a reverse exacta of 3-6 adds value given Post Game's extreme consistency. Use Let's Be Frank (5) and Sabino Canyon (2) as trifecta connectors. The best play here may be to box 6, 3, and 5 in a trifecta for moderate cost.

Selections

Win: Call Me Cory (6)
Place: Post Game (3)
Show: Let's Be Frank (5)

Race 4 — Allowance Optional Claiming $50,000, 1 Mile Dirt

Post Time: 2:37 PM PT

Pace Analysis

Nine three-year-old California-bred or sired colts and geldings contest this allowance optional claiming event at one mile on the dirt. The pace picture is moderately complicated, with Southern Melodee (4) and Tiggrrr Whitworth (9) both showing front-running tendencies and Uecker (8) also capable of pressing the lead early. At a one-mile distance with this type of speed, the opening half-mile figures to be contested, which should set up ideally for the closer types. Fionello (6) and Smoovin Saturday (7) are both confirmed closers in a race where pace is likely to be genuine and unrelenting early. Scatalotadingdong (2) has won at one mile on the turf and gets his first genuine dirt route test here.

Key Contenders

Fionello (6) for trainer Steve Knapp and jockey Antonio Fresu presents the most compelling case at the morning line. He carries the highest speed figures in the field at 23-56-97 and has posted two wins from twelve career starts with four places and four shows. His most recent outing at six furlongs on the dirt at Santa Anita showed a second-place finish, and the stretch to a mile should suit his closing, stamina-based style. Knapp runs a 20% win rate at the current meet with a strong 51% in-the-money rate, and Fresu has been consistent in a supporting role at 15% wins and 53% in the money. Handicappers have identified this horse as the analytical top choice.​

Smoovin Saturday (7), a 3-year-old colt for trainer Michael W. McCarthy and ridden by Florent Geroux, holds a 2-2-2 record from six starts, including two wins. He has tried turf routes and has now been freshened for a return to the dirt. McCarthy is a top-shelf trainer with a 21% win rate and 52% in-the-money mark at the current meet, and Geroux's recent form in Southern California is excellent. The combination of a winning record, a top jockey, and a top trainer at the right price of 4/2 makes this horse a must-use in exotics.​

Secondary Choices

Southern Melodee (4) for trainer Craig Dollase is installed as the morning line co-favorite at 3/1. He carries speed figures of 24-44 and a record of 2-4-4 from ten starts. Dollase trains two horses in this race including Gentleman Rancher (1), and both post-position entries suggest the trainer knows the right spot. The front-running style from post 4 in a one-mile dirt route gives Southern Melodee a clear stalking lane to save ground on both turns. Ayuso complements the pace-pressing style.​

Scatalotadingdong (2) is interesting for handicappers who want to play a price. He won a turf route at one mile at Santa Anita and is stretching that turf form onto the dirt. The Jaramillo-Powell combination is interesting — Jaramillo has been extremely hot at the current meet and Powell trains a horse who at least knows how to win at this distance. The 8/1 morning line may be too generous.​

Longshots

Bandolero (3) won at one mile on the dirt at Santa Anita in his most recent start for trainer Steve Knapp. His speed figures suggest modest ability, but the fact that he has already won at this distance gives him a foundation no other longshot in this race has. At 30/1 morning line, the price is surprisingly generous for a horse who has literally won at this distance and surface. Watch for any market support. What A Gift (5) has a 1-2-6 record from eight starts and has placed at six furlongs on the dirt here, but the extension to a mile is uncertain. Uecker (8) is intriguing in that he has raced primarily on the turf and is making a switch to the dirt, but the move is speculative. Tiggrrr Whitworth (9) for Knapp has won at six furlongs on the dirt but may lack the bottom to get a mile. Gentleman Rancher (1), a Dollase trainee at 20/1, is a long-distance stalker whose form is pointing toward a longer track but the distance is still short for his style.​

Betting Strategy

The best single bet on the card in this race is Fionello (6) to win, with Smoovin Saturday (7) underneath. An exacta box of 6-7 returns strong value. Use Bandolero (3) in the superfecta as the big price kicker given his prior win at the distance. Trifecta of 6 with 7/4 with 2/7/4 is the structured recommendation.

Selections

Win: Fionello (6)
Place: Smoovin Saturday (7)
Show: Southern Melodee (4)

Race 5 — Maiden Special Weight, 5.5 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time: 3:07 PM PT

Pace Analysis

With Jasmine scratched, seven first-time and lightly raced 3-year-old fillies face the starter in this sprint maiden at 5.5 furlongs on the dirt. The pace picture is notably murky given that five of the seven entrants are making their career debut. Sounds Lucky (7) is the only entrant with substantial race experience at six starts, and her running style as a mid-pack closer means she is unlikely to force the early pace. The debut runners represent an unknown quantity for early speed projection. Weekend Princess (5) from the Baffert barn and Confidentiality (8) from the Glatt barn will likely break alertly based on their morning workout patterns, but first-time starters' actual race behavior remains unpredictable. This sets up as a race where whoever gets the best break and cleanest trip from the field is likely to produce the winner.

Key Contenders

Weekend Princess (5), a Baffert debut runner under Florent Geroux, is the consensus top selection from handicappers. Baffert's win rate at Santa Anita with first-time starters is exceptional, historically running at 40% win and 70% in-the-money rate with debut runners based on available current-meet data. Geroux has been one of the hottest jockeys in Southern California since joining the circuit in mid-February and has posted multiple stakes wins during his run of form. The combination of the sport's most prominent maiden conditioner and a jockey on a hot streak makes Weekend Princess the clear morning line favorite at 5/2. At 5.5 furlongs on the dirt with a Baffert debut runner, speed from the gate is the expected running style.

Sounds Lucky (7), trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Juan Hernandez, brings actual race experience to this field after six starts, including a show finish at 5.5 furlongs. Her speed figure profile of 32-58-83 is the highest in the entire race by a wide margin. The Baffert-Hernandez combination is the most powerful in California racing right now. However, her back performances have been disappointing — she finished last in a one-mile dirt race at Santa Anita most recently, and her style as a mid-pack closer in a likely slow-paced first-time starter field creates concern. That said, the back figures from her earlier outings show natural ability that a patient Hernandez ride could unlock.​

Secondary Choices

Confidentiality (8) for trainer Mark Glatt under Ricardo Gonzalez is a debut runner that warrants attention. Glatt was the leading trainer at the 2025 Classic Meet at Santa Anita with a 25% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate, and his debut runners carry strong form from morning works. The 4/1 morning line reflects a horse that has shown plenty of ability on the training track. Gonzalez has a 13% win rate with a 47% in-the-money rate at the current meet. In a race dominated by debut runners from elite stables, the Glatt-Gonzalez entry deserves respect.​

Poor Val (4) makes her debut for trainer Philip D'Amato under Antonio Fresu. D'Amato won his eighth Santa Anita training title at the Autumn Meet with a 24% win rate, and his debut fillies on the dirt carry strong credentials based on his stable's historical patterns. Fresu has ridden effectively throughout the meet. The 6/1 morning line may undervalue D'Amato's debut runner angle.​

Longshots

Slice (3) makes her debut for McCarthy with Jaramillo up. McCarthy is a quality trainer and Jaramillo has been hot, but the 8/1 morning line on an unraced filly suggests modest work tab expectations. La Cantina Rossa (2) is a Ruben Gomez debut entrant at 30/1 — the barn has not distinguished itself at the current meet and this price is appropriate. Govern (6) for McCarthy with Pereira is a second McCarthy-barn debut entry who likely serves as an exploratory first start for a horse the stable will develop further. At 30/1, she is without analytical support.​

Betting Strategy

Bet Weekend Princess (5) to win. Box Weekend Princess (5), Sounds Lucky (7), and Confidentiality (8) in a trifecta. Poor Val (4) and Slice (3) are price alternatives in the superfecta. Avoid the Jaramillo-Slice combination as a win bet despite the jockey's current form — the trainer and horse credentials are too thin to justify the play.

Selections

Win: Weekend Princess (5)
Place: Sounds Lucky (7)
Show: Confidentiality (8)

Race 6 — Claiming $25,000, 6 Furlongs Turf

Post Time: 3:37 PM PT

Pace Analysis

With Player B scratched, eleven older geldings and ridglings contest this six-furlong turf sprint for $25,000 claimers. This is the deepest, most competitive field of the day with horses like So I'm Told (10) carrying 82 career starts and Commander (FR) (6) carrying 39. Pace is the critical handicapping factor in a field this large. SO I'M TOLD (10) has shown front-running tendencies and Mubtadaa (3) is a confirmed pace-setter with a slowest early speed profile suggesting he controls tempo from the gate. Harcyn (4) is a closer trying to angle from post 4, while Hacking It Up (7) and Tigerhon (FR) (9) are confirmed late runners. The large turf sprint field with the rail at 30 feet creates significant post position considerations — middle posts 5-8 are the statistical sweet spot for turf sprints at this meet, while post 8 specifically has historically underperformed.

Key Contenders

Tigerhon (FR) (9) for trainer Peter Miller under Florent Geroux is the handicapper's statistical top choice. He has 43 career starts with a 6-17-27 record and carries speed figures of 17-35-54. His performance profile shows consistent closings at Santa Anita, and the 9/2 morning line represents solid overlay value relative to his consistent form. Miller's stable wins at 8% but finds the money nearly 46% of the time. The Geroux booking in a key spot is the most significant angle — Geroux has been picking specific horses to ride and winning at an elevated rate since February.

Central Dispatch (8) for trainer John Sadler under Antonio Fresu carries the best winning percentage in this field at 33% from 15 career starts (5-6-7). Sadler is one of the most accomplished trainers in California with a 29% win rate and 56% in-the-money rate at the current meet. Fresu has been solid throughout the card. A horse with a genuine 33% lifetime win rate dropping to a $25,000 claiming tag is either physically compromised or in a perfect spot. The Sadler management suggests the latter, and Central Dispatch should be a key player.​

Secondary Choices

Hacking It Up (7) for trainer George Papaprodromou under Florent Geroux is the other strong contender in this race. Geroux is double-booked in this race, riding both Tigerhon (FR) (9) and Hacking It Up (7). Note: Geroux cannot ride both. Per the race entries, Geroux is listed on both horses in the At the Races program. Handicappers should confirm which mount Geroux ultimately takes, as the jockey's presence changes the calculus. Hacking It Up has 35 career starts with 6-6-10 record and the fastest early speed figure in the race at 22-35. Papaprodromou wins at 18% with a 41% in-the-money rate. This is a live contender regardless of jockey assignment.​

Yogi Boy (1), trained by Mike Puype and ridden by Hector Isaac Berrios, has accumulated an impressive record of 7-12-14 from 28 starts with a 25% win rate and 50% in-the-money total. Berrios has been one of the more reliable riders at this meet with a 25% win rate and 65% in-the-money rate in the available current meet sample. The 10/1 morning line on a horse with a 25% win rate and a top-performing jockey is an outstanding overlay situation.​

Longshots

Mubtadaa (3) is the morning line favorite at 3/1 despite showing a slowest early speed profile. His record of 4-10-15 from 21 starts and a 71% in-the-money total is legitimately impressive, and trainer Vladimir Cerin wins at 43% in the current meet sample from a small pool. Harcyn (4) has 31 starts with 6-15-21 record and has shown a good second in a turf sprint at Santa Anita, making him a worthy inclusion in exotics. Don't Swear Dave (2) has a massive 48-career-start resume that includes several strong efforts on this course. Commander (FR) (6) is a legitimate 39-career-start veteran who has flashed 6 career wins but whose 5% win rate suggests he runs close but rarely wins. Galland De Besos (5) and Chasin Munny (12) are speculative prices who fit the field but offer limited analytical upside at their morning line prices. So I'm Told (10) has earned an astonishing $828,140 across 82 starts but wins only 5% of the time — he is a horse that finds the money but rarely the top spot.​

Betting Strategy

This is the deepest race on the card and deserves structured exotic play rather than a single win bet. Key Tigerhon (FR) (9) in an exacta with Central Dispatch (8) and Yogi Boy (1). A trifecta of 9 with 8/1 with 7/8/3/1 covers the primary threats and includes the price horse Yogi Boy as a trifecta boost. Given the field size, a Pick 3 linking Race 6-7-8 is worth structuring.

Selections

Win: Tigerhon (FR) (9)
Place: Central Dispatch (8)
Show: Yogi Boy (1)

Race 7 — Allowance Optional Claiming $20,000, 5.5 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time: 4:07 PM PT

Pace Analysis

The eleven-horse field for this California-bred/sired allowance optional claimer at 5.5 furlongs is headlined by clear front-runner Jaguar Jon (1) and an intriguing group of closers and stalkers behind him. JAGUAR JON (1) has a 37% career win rate and consistently leads from post 1. Wild Jewels (6) is a confirmed pace-setter but comes from a significant layoff scenario. Uncle Chilly (7) and Tiger In My Tank (5) both prefer stalking positions. With a genuine front-runner in post 1 and a cluster of quality closers, the pace should be legitimate and sustaining, setting up the late runners while keeping Jaguar Jon honest. This is fundamentally a pace vs. closing strength analysis, with multiple horses capable of pressuring the leader early.

Key Contenders

Jaguar Jon (1) for trainer Andy Mathis under Cesar Belmont has a truly remarkable 7-9-14 record from 19 career starts — a 37% win rate with a 74% in-the-money total. Mathis wins at 27% with a 47% in-the-money mark at the current meet. No horse on the card today carries a more consistent winning record than Jaguar Jon, and the sprint distance with a front-running style from post 1 in a California-bred allowance race is his optimal setup. Belmont is a journeyman who will allow this horse to find his own rhythm.​

Uncle Chilly (7) for Hall of Fame trainer Jeff Mullins under Armando Ayuso carries a 4-12-14 record from 28 starts, with the fastest stalker speed figure in the race. Mullins wins at 22% and finds the money 56% of the time at the current meet — outstanding numbers from a trainer of his caliber. Ayuso complements the stalking style effectively. The 4/1 morning line may undervalue this combination, and handicappers have identified Uncle Chilly as a key secondary choice.​

Secondary Choices

Tiger In My Tank (5) for trainer Librado Barocio under Kyle Frey brings a 7-10-15 record from 27 starts and carries good speed figures for post 5 at 16-34-54. Barocio is a revelation at the current meet with a 42% win rate and 67% in-the-money total from his runners. Frey has been riding consistently throughout the meet at 16% wins. This horse won at 5.5 furlongs on the dirt at Santa Anita in a recent outing and is deeply familiar with this distance and surface. Handicappers favor the Tiger in My Tank-Jaguar Jon combination heavily.​

Known Idea (8) for Mark Glatt under Vicente Del-Cid is the morning line co-favorite at 3/1. He carries a 4-12-16 record from 27 starts with the fastest stalker speed profile in the field. Glatt's 20% win rate and 60% in-the-money mark are strong, and while Del-Cid's win rate is modest, Glatt's horses run to form regardless of jockey.​

Longshots

Special Club (3) for Craig Anthony Lewis under Juan Hernandez brings a 5-12-18 record from 31 starts and the fastest closer speed figure. Hernandez's 24% win rate at the meet is always a reason to take notice, but the Lewis-managed horse may need more setup than a 5.5-furlong sprint provides. Cody Boy (2) for trainer Javier Jose Sierra under Victor Espinoza has 43 career starts at only 7% wins — this is a horse that fills out superfectas. Wild Jewels (6) has a remarkable 40% win rate from 10 starts but is extremely lightly raced and coming from a Golden Gate layoff with Pereira up. One Smokin Dude (9) is re-entered under Baze and has 20% career wins, but the re-entry is a flag for a horse that the connections felt wasn't quite ready. Spiritual Advisor (10) is a 35-start veteran with consistent in-the-money record but 11% win rate. Minister Shane (4) and Clever Clover (11) are tail-end entrants with little analytical case.​

Betting Strategy

Jaguar Jon (1) to win is the single best value bet of the second half of the card, given the 37% career win rate and optimal conditions. An exacta box of 1-5 and 1-7 covers the primary threats at a reasonable cost. Key Jaguar Jon (1) on top with Tiger In My Tank (5), Uncle Chilly (7), and Known Idea (8) below in trifecta combinations. Special Club (3) with Hernandez is worth a small superfecta inclusion.

Selections

Win: Jaguar Jon (1)
Place: Tiger In My Tank (5)
Show: Uncle Chilly (7)

Race 8 — Maiden Claiming $12,500, 6 Furlongs Dirt

Post Time: 4:37 PM PT

Pace Analysis

The nine-horse field at the bottom of the card consists of California-bred or sired maiden fillies and mares at a $12,500 claiming price, the lowest-level race of the day. Multiple front-runners and pace-pressers populate the field: Daddygaveittome (3) leads from the front, Celestial Skies (6) shows a confirmed front-running style with the fastest early speed figure in the field, Dancing Thru Fire (8) is a pace-presser, and West Fresno (5) also shows early speed. The pace should be quite fast for the class level, which can sometimes paradoxically result in a lone front-runner clearing the field — but in this instance, with at least three pace-setters, the early fraction should be genuinely contested and set up the late runners. Play For Me (2) is the confirmed closer/leader type that should benefit from any pace meltdown.

Key Contenders

Celestial Skies (6) for trainer Gloria Haley under Vicente Del-Cid is the morning line favorite at 5/2 and the statistical choice. She carries an 0-3-6 record from 11 starts — a 55% in-the-money total that is the best in the field by a wide margin. Her most recent efforts show she consistently runs to the front and maintains her position, including three second-place finishes. At the $12,500 claiming level, a horse with double-digit starts and 55% in-the-money rate is distinctly above average. Del-Cid has shown a 20% win rate at the current meet, and Haley, while a smaller-volume trainer, wins at 10% with 25% in-the-money. This is the logical top choice.​

Play For Me (2) for trainer Steve Knapp under Tiago Josue Pereira has a 0-0-4 record from four starts — a perfect 100% in-the-money rate. Every time she has run she has hit the board. Knapp is one of the top trainers at this meet with a 13% win rate and 36% in-the-money from 75 starters, and Pereira has been solid all card at 14% wins and 48% in-the-money. The transition from always running third to winning may be the missing piece in this lower-level spot.​

Secondary Choices

Daddygaveittome (3) for trainer Edwin G. Alvarez under Welfin R. Orantes has raced 23 times — by far the most experienced horse in the field — posting 0-3-7 with a 30% in-the-money total. Orantes has a 16% win rate at the current meet, and while the Alvarez barn carries a modest 3% win rate, a horse with 23 starts of experience brings matchup knowledge that maiden first-timers cannot replicate. The front-running style from post 3 makes this horse a pace factor if not a winner.​

Dancing Thru Fire (8) for trainer Edwin G. Alvarez under Tyler Baze is an interesting entry. She has six career starts all at this distance and surface, consistently hitting fourth or fifth. However, the addition of Baze — who has been steady at 8% wins but 35% in-the-money this meet — gives this horse an edge over similar horses ridden by lesser jockeys. Baze's experience and judgment at the gate could make a decisive difference in a pace-contested race.​

Longshots

Bitter Truth (9) for Craig Anthony Lewis under Emisael Jaramillo has only one prior start, finishing fourth at this exact distance and surface. Jaramillo's hot streak gives any horse he rides a slight upgrade, but one prior start and a trainer win rate of 9% provides minimal analytical support. West Fresno (5) for Jeff Bonde under Armando Aguilar has five starts showing no money, though she ran fourth in her most recent at 5.5 furlongs. Bonde's 6% win rate suggests limited impact. Smiling Rapper (1) has been on the card for 17 starts without winning and continues to seek her first victory for trainer Bill McLean. By The Moonlight (4) makes just her second start under Escobedo for trainer Richard Baltas — Baltas is a quality trainer but the debut outing at Del Mar showed a seventh-place finish of eight, which is not inspiring. Little Originaire (7) is a 3-year-old filly racing 14 lbs. lighter than the field under Alfredo L. Bautista, trained by Steven Miyadi. Miyadi's 23% win rate in the current meet sample is actually notable, and the lightweight advantage for a 3-year-old against 4-year-olds and mares in a maiden claimer is a legitimate angle. She ran seventh in her most recent at six furlongs but the weight advantage in a soft spot deserves notice.​

Betting Strategy

Play Celestial Skies (6) to win and box her with Play For Me (2) and Daddygaveittome (3) in an exacta. A trifecta using Celestial Skies (6) with Play For Me (2) with Dancing Thru Fire (8)/Daddygaveittome (3) is the primary structure. Dancing Thru Fire (8) with Baze is the “upside” play if pace collapses under the extreme heat and the leading horses flatten.

Selections

Win: Celestial Skies (6)
Place: Play For Me (2)
Show: Daddygaveittome (3)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Juan Hernandez continues to be the dominant rider at Santa Anita Park, sitting atop the jockey standings with a 24% win rate in 2026 from 142 starts. He has claimed nine career Santa Anita riding titles, including the 2025 Classic Meet with 53 wins from 232 mounts at a 23% rate. His ability to rate horses patiently while maintaining rail position on both dirt and turf is unmatched at this facility. Today he rides Fancy Lady (3) in Race 1, One More Time (4) in Race 3, Special Club (3) in Race 7, and Sounds Lucky (7) in Race 5 — effectively four mounts where Hernandez connections alone add value. The Hernandez-McCarthy combination in Race 1 is particularly worth noting as a live angle.

Florent Geroux relocated to Southern California in mid-February 2026 and has immediately proven his talent on the West Coast. He posted a 5-for-25 mark at Santa Anita within his first weeks, including a win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Kentucky Derby contender Plutarch for Baffert, and won the Wishing Well Stakes aboard Gratefully for a different connections. Today he rides Ottis Betts (4) in Race 2, Sabino Canyon (2) in Race 3, Smoovin Saturday (7) in Race 4, Weekend Princess (5) in Race 5, and Tigerhon (FR) (9) in Race 6. Geroux appears on Hacking It Up (7) in Race 6 as well in some programs — confirm final jockey assignment before wagering. His presence on any horse immediately elevates its probability of running a competitive race.​

Emisael Jaramillo has been riding at an exceptional pace this meet, with win rates cited between 23% and 32% depending on the sample. He pairs with Richard Mandella's Ou La La (6) in Race 1, the very live Rollinwithpolan (2) in Race 2 for Doug O'Neill, Scatalotadingdong (2) in Race 4, Slice (3) in Race 5, and Chasin Munny (12) in Race 6. The Mandella angle in Race 1 is the most strategically significant of his card.​

Hector Isaac Berrios has been one of the quietly effective riders at this meet. His 25% win rate and 65% in-the-money mark are elite-level numbers for any meet. He rides Let's Be Frank (5) for McCarthy in Race 3 and Yogi Boy (1) in Race 6, both live contenders at respectable prices.​

Tyler Baze, Armando Ayuso, Kyle Frey, and Tiago Josue Pereira round out the rider depth. Baze rides Dancing Thru Fire (8) in Race 8 as the notable upgrade, while Ayuso has been workmanlike with 14% wins and 47% in-the-money. Pereira has posted 14% wins with 43-48% in-the-money rates across multiple meet samples.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Bob Baffert enters three horses today across Races 3 and 5. His career Santa Anita win rates of 27-30% over recent meets are simply elite, and his debut runners in particular close at staggering rates — 40% win/70% in-the-money by current meet data. Sabino Canyon (2) in Race 3 and Weekend Princess (5) in Race 5 are both debut entrants. Sounds Lucky (7) in Race 5 is the more experienced Baffert entry. When Baffert enters two horses in the same race, his first-time starters backed by strong jockey bookings typically outperform expectations. Back both Baffert entries in Race 5 if the price allows.​

Philip D'Amato is a multiple Santa Anita training title winner with an 8th crown coming at the Autumn Meet in October 2025 with a 24% win rate. He trains Rethink (2) in Race 1 and Poor Val (4) in Race 5. D'Amato is consistently among the best at developing turf horses in California and his 2/1 morning line on Rethink in Race 1 reflects genuine confidence from the oddsmaker. His debut filly Poor Val (4) in Race 5 at 6/1 is a quiet overlay candidate if the D'Amato first-out-of-the-box angle is backed by strong morning works.​

Michael W. McCarthy trains Fancy Lady (3) in Race 1, Let's Be Frank (5) in Race 3, Smoovin Saturday (7) in Race 4, Slice (3) and Govern (6) in Race 5. McCarthy's 21% win rate and 52% in-the-money mark at the current meet make him a consistent factor on any card. The McCarthy-Hernandez combination on Fancy Lady (3) in Race 1 is the best of his day's entries.​

Mark Glatt was the leading trainer at the most recent Classic Meet (December 2025-April 2026 span prior to this meet) with 31 wins from 122 starters at 25%. He trains Confidentiality (8) in Race 5 and Known Idea (8) in Race 7. Both horses carry competitive morning line prices and Glatt's ability to have horses fit on race day is well-documented. Known Idea (8) in Race 7 at 3/1 is especially live.​

Peter Eurton posts a 10% win rate but 50% in-the-money rate at the meet, making his horses consistent exotics plays. He trains Prestige Fungson (4) in Race 1 and Post Game (3) in Race 3. Post Game's 0-0-11 show record is one of the most bankable exotic facts on today's card.

Jeff Mullins trains Uncle Chilly (7) in Race 7 and brings a 22% win rate with 56% in-the-money to a race where his horse is one of the most overlooked contenders. Mullins consistently runs good horses at allowance and claiming levels and Uncle Chilly's 4/1 morning line is solid overlay territory.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Win Bets

The two strongest win plays on the card based on a combination of morning line price and analytical edge are Jaguar Jon (1) in Race 7 and Fionello (6) in Race 4. Jaguar Jon's 37% career win rate makes him statistically one of the most underlaid horses at his morning line of 6/1 — any horse with a proven career win rate nearly double what handicappers will typically use at 6/1 represents a fundamental overlay. Fionello (6) as the analytical top selection at 5/2 in Race 4 is a solid, lower-variance win play backed by the strongest speed figures in the race.

Exacta/Trifecta Angles

In Race 1, the Fancy Lady (3)/Rethink (2)/Ou La La (6) trifecta box at $2 costs $12 and covers all the likely outcomes in a wide-open maiden turf sprint.

In Race 7, a trifecta of Jaguar Jon (1) with Tiger In My Tank (5) and Uncle Chilly (7) below is the consensus structural play.

Late Pick 5 Value Structure

The late sequence at Santa Anita typically begins with Race 4, covering Races 4 through 8. A recommended structure:

Race 4: Fionello (6) and Smoovin Saturday (7) — two horses

Race 5: Weekend Princess (5), Sounds Lucky (7), and Confidentiality (8) — three horses

Race 6: Tigerhon (FR) (9), Central Dispatch (8), and Yogi Boy (1) — three horses

Race 7: Jaguar Jon (1), Tiger In My Tank (5), and Uncle Chilly (7) — three horses

Race 8: Celestial Skies (6) and Play For Me (2) — two horses

A 2x3x3x3x2 Pick 5 ticket costs $108 for 50-cent base (the standard Santa Anita Pick 5 takeout is 14% at the late sequence). This provides excellent coverage across the five races while maintaining a manageable investment. Adding Hacking It Up (7) in Race 6 as a fourth option increases cost but improves coverage significantly given the Geroux booking uncertainty.

Value Play of the Day

Yogi Boy (1) in Race 6 at 9/1 or 10/1 morning line is the single best value play on the card. A horse with a 25% career win rate, 50% in-the-money total, ridden by Berrios who is posting elite-level win numbers at this meet, in a $25,000 turf sprint where the rail setup at 30 feet actually helps rather than hurts post 1 — this is a horse that should be 5/1 or 6/1 by any rational handicapping method. If he goes off at double-digit odds, it is a meaningful overlay worth a straight win bet beyond exotic use.

A second value note: Bandolero (3) in Race 4 at 30/1 morning line has already won at one mile on the dirt at Santa Anita. A horse with a prior win at the distance and surface should not be 30/1 in any circumstance unless there is a physical flag in the form. Without identifying such a flag from available public information, the 30/1 price represents extraordinary value if the horse shows up in sharp form in the paddock.

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback