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Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Turf Paradise – Racing News and Analysis for March 24, 2026

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Turf Paradise presents an eight-race program on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, featuring a diverse card that includes two sprint quarter-horse-style events at 300 yards and 330 yards, three turf route races, and three dirt events ranging from six furlongs to a mile. The card spans multiple conditions from optional claiming to allowance, maiden claiming, and standard claiming competition. Notable scratches heading into the card include Cha Chings Chick (Post 1) from Race 1 (veterinarian scratch), Rr Favorite Power (Post 4) from Race 1 (also-eligible), and Sharp Attitude (Post 3) from Race 4 (veterinarian scratch), which effectively reduces Race 1 to a four-horse field and Race 4 to five horses. The Arizona Bred supplemental fund from the ATBA adds 20% to all overnight Arizona Bred race purses in Races 1 and 2.​

The card's total purse distribution ranges from $8,500 for the Race 8 maiden claiming to $18,000 for the Race 3 allowance, the feature event of the day. Turf Paradise is currently in the heart of its annual winter-spring meet, which traditionally runs from mid-October through mid-May.

Weather and Track Conditions

Phoenix, Arizona on March 24, 2026 presents near-ideal racing conditions. AccuWeather data shows high temperatures reaching 100 degrees Fahrenheit for the afternoon, with a low around 66 degrees for the evening. Skies are expected to be partly sunny with no precipitation in the forecast, and wind from the east-northeast at approximately 5 mph. Race time temperatures during the afternoon post should be in the low-to-mid 90s. March 2026 in Phoenix has been running significantly warmer than historical averages.

The dirt surface at Turf Paradise is expected to be rated Fast, consistent with recent days at the track. The turf course, used in Races 3 and 7, has the rail set at zero per the official race conditions listed on the card. Bettingnews.com's on-site temperature data confirms high temperatures in the 75-81 degree range at track level for today's card.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Turf Paradise does not exhibit an overwhelming systematic bias, but there are meaningful tendencies that sharp handicappers can exploit. In sprint distances of five to five-and-a-half furlongs on dirt, early pace is critical, with roughly 46% of winners during the winter meet going wire-to-wire, strongly rewarding horses with speed and tactical ability. On the turf course, wire-to-wire rates drop to approximately 14%, meaning closers and mid-packers become much more viable in the mile turf events on today's card.​

Post position tendencies on the turf course show 39% of winners coming from posts 1 or 2, giving inside slots a meaningful edge in today's turf races. On the dirt course for route races, post position 2 historically produces 16% of winners with a relatively even distribution across the field, meaning outside posts are not a serious disadvantage at a mile. For today's short-distance races (Races 1 and 2), which run on a straight track, post position is largely irrelevant from a traditional bias standpoint, though the fastest horses from the break typically dominate at these distances.​

Favorites at Turf Paradise win approximately 38% of the time, and a recent winter meeting saw 77% of favorites hitting the board, although small fields contribute to that number.​

Race 1 — Arizona Bred Optional Claiming, 300 Yards, Dirt, Purse $15,100

Post Time: 1:15 PM

Scratches have significantly reshaped this event. With Cha Chings Chick (Post 1) scratched by veterinarian order and Rr Favorite Power (Post 4) scratched as also-eligible, the field is reduced to four starters: Msblue (Post 2), Higher Heat (Post 3), Magic King Corona (Post 5), and Tell America (Post 6).​

Over 300 yards on a straight track, this race is purely a contest of speed and gate quickness. There is no pace to speak of in the traditional sense — every horse breaks simultaneously and the race is often decided by the first 50 yards off the gate.

Key Contenders: Tell America (Post 6) comes in as the morning line favorite at 9/5, and handicappers widely endorse this four-year-old filly under jockey Jayden R. Ironeyes for trainer Orlando Guerrero. Tell America won impressively in her most recent start and appears well-placed to follow up at this class level. Higher Heat (Post 3), a five-year-old gelding trained by Matthew M. Fales, posts at 2/1 and is the consensus second choice across multiple handicapping sources. Fales is one of the top trainers at the meet with a 35.20% win rate and outstanding place and show percentages.

Secondary Choices: Msblue (Post 2), a five-year-old gelding for trainer Alex J. Torres-Casas, draws in at 6/1 and figures to be competitive in what is now a short field. Torres-Casas posts a 25.73% win rate at the meet.

Longshots: Magic King Corona (Post 5), a seven-year-old gelding trained by Humberto Lira Ramirez and ridden by Jose Juan Olivo, is the likely longest price in the field at 8/1 morning line.​

Race 2 — Arizona Bred Optional Claiming, 330 Yards, Dirt, Purse $16,600

Post Time: 1:42 PM

The second race is a 330-yard sprint for Arizona-bred horses at the optional claiming level of $25,000. This is a full six-horse field with no scratches. Morning line odds show Four Sweet Kid (Post 6) as the 2/1 favorite, followed by Triple D Governor (Post 3) at 5/2, and Letsjustsay (Post 1) at 3/1.​

Four Sweet Kid (Post 6) is noted as the “fastest” horse in the field based on speed profiles, while Triple D Governor (Post 3) is rated a “mid-pack leader” running type. Letsjustsay (Post 1) tends to be a slower leader type, suggesting Four Sweet Kid's breakneck early fractions will be the key.​

Key Contenders: Four Sweet Kid (Post 6), a four-year-old gelding for trainer Diego Cervantes ridden by Mark A. Jasso, carries a 46% win rate in his distance/surface record, easily the strongest in the field. His $191,742 career earnings reflect a long track record of competitiveness at this distance. Triple D Governor (Post 3) is a consistent five-year-old gelding for trainer Humberto Lira Ramirez ridden by Jose Juan Olivo. He carries a 29% win rate in 330-yard events and his profile shows him consistently competitive at this exact distance.​

Secondary Choices: Letsjustsay (Post 1), trained by John M. Allred and ridden by Kevin Carbajal, has won back-to-back races and enters in top form. Heartache Tonite (Post 2) is a seven-year-old gelding trained by Matthew M. Fales — one of the meet's leading conditioners — and draws in at 7/2 under Blake Nunnally.

Longshots: Sweet Fire Wes (Post 5), a four-year-old filly for trainer Rigoberto Guillen ridden by Cerapio Figueroa, carries a 42% win rate in a small sample. Jess Mr Mayito (Post 4) at 15/1 has a poor record at this distance and can be safely eliminated.​

Race 3 — Allowance, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $18,000

Post Time: 2:12 PM

The feature race of the day is a one-mile turf allowance for four-year-olds and upward that have never won beyond the maiden/claiming/starter level or have never won two races. The rail is set at zero. Morning line probables show Seas Of Normandy (Post 3) as the 8/5 favorite, followed by Vekoma Kid (Post 6) at 3/1, Athens Moon (Post 5) at 4/1, Fireman Dan (Post 2) at 5/1, and Chief Wild Eagle (Post 1) and Evanderkeen (Post 4) at 6/1.​

On the turf at a mile with the rail at zero, late pace becomes the key factor. Wire-to-wire rates on Turf Paradise turf routes drop to roughly 14%, strongly favoring closers and stalkers. Inside post position advantage is significant on the turf at Turf Paradise, with 39% of winners coming from posts 1 or 2.​

Key Contenders: Seas Of Normandy (Post 3) is the morning line favorite and the consensus top pick among handicappers. This six-year-old gelding for trainer Ian Jewell, ridden by Alex M. Cruz, carries a rating of 102 — the highest in the field along with Athens Moon (Post 5). His most recent recorded start placed him third at 10/3 on the same turf course at this exact distance. Fireman Dan (Post 2), a seven-year-old gelding trained by Riley Rycroft and ridden by Jose Mariano Asencio, is firmly endorsed as a top contender. He won at Turf Paradise on February 12 in this class and distance, giving him a current-form edge.

Secondary Choices: Vekoma Kid (Post 6), a four-year-old colt for trainer Justin R. Evans and ridden by Geovanni Franco, is lightly raced but promising at 3/1. Evanderkeen (Post 4), a five-year-old gelding for James L. Gilmour trained by Frank T. Alvarado, has been running well at the meet with multiple placings in this class.

Longshots: Athens Moon (Post 5), a six-year-old horse for trainer Curt Ferguson and jockey Daniel P. Vergara, carries a rating of 102 tied for tops in the field but arrives off a less competitive recent pattern. Chief Wild Eagle (Post 1), trained by Ryan Kenney and ridden by Karlo Lopez, draws the coveted inside post on the turf course.

Race 4 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $13,000

Post Time: 2:42 PM

This six-furlong dirt claiming event for fillies and mares four and up has Sharp Attitude (Post 3) scratched by the veterinarian, reducing the field to five starters. The morning line shows A Real Jewel (Post 1) at 2/1, Velocious (Post 2) at 5/2, with Hot Rod Mama (Post 6) at 6/1, and Miracle Ball (Post 5) and Machina (Post 4) both at 8/1.

Velocious (Post 2) is rated the fastest horse in the field and runs as a stalker type, while A Real Jewel (Post 1) is a deep closer with a fast profile. Hot Rod Mama (Post 6) is the likely front-runner but is noted as the slowest speed profile in the field.​

Key Contenders: Velocious (Post 2), a five-year-old mare for trainer Robertino Diodoro and jockey Orlando Mojica, is the top play from a handicapper consensus standpoint. She posts a 19% win rate in 21 career starts with a 48% in-the-money rate, and her trainer Diodoro leads all Turf Paradise trainers with a 39.22% win rate. Mojica is one of the elite jockeys in the colony with a 35.05% win rate at the track. A Real Jewel (Post 1) is an eight-year-old mare trained by Jorge Maravilla and ridden by Blake Nunnally — another elite jockey at the meet with a 38.07% win rate, the highest in the colony.

Secondary Choices: Hot Rod Mama (Post 6), a seven-year-old mare for trainer Candelario Villamar and jockey Francisco Garcia, is dropping down from recent routes at Santa Anita. Machina (Post 4), trained by Gonzalo Anderson and ridden by Alex M. Cruz, comes off second-place finishes over routes and turf.​

Longshots: Miracle Ball (Post 5), for trainer James L. Gilmour and jockey Daniel P. Vergara, has a remarkable 42% win rate in a small four-start sample at this track. Gilmour posts a 35.20% win rate at the meet, one of the best in the colony.

Race 5 — Claiming, 6.5 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $13,000

Post Time: 3:12 PM

The fifth race is a six-and-a-half furlong claiming event for four-year-olds and up with a full seven-horse field. The morning line shows John Dunbar (Post 4) as the 6/5 favorite, followed by Standard Of Proof (Post 2) at 4/1, Drinking Again (Post 5) at 5/1, Cousin Richie (Post 7) and Freeze 'em (Post 3) at 6/1 each, and Peso (Post 6) at 8/1.​

John Dunbar (Post 4) is a mid-pack to leading type who won at this exact class and distance in his last start and was victorious in the prior start before that. Standard Of Proof (Post 2) is rated as a leader type with good early fractions. Cousin Richie (Post 7) is rated the “fastest” horse in the field on raw speed but runs as a stalker.​

Key Contenders: John Dunbar (Post 4), a seven-year-old gelding trained by Jose Silva Jr. and ridden by Jose Mariano Asencio, is the consensus top pick across multiple handicapping sources. He won at this exact class and distance (Course and Distance winner) in his last start and carries a 20% win rate in 35 career starts. Trainer Jose Silva Jr. is among the most effective at the meet with a 23.86% win rate and exceptional place and show statistics. Standard Of Proof (Post 2), a six-year-old gelding trained by Juan Pablo Silva and ridden by Francisco Garcia, placed in a similar race recently and is consistently competitive. Juan Pablo Silva posts an outstanding 31.91% win rate.

Secondary Choices: Cousin Richie (Post 7), trained by Justin R. Evans and ridden by Geovanni Franco, won at a mile in the dirt at this track and has course experience across multiple surface types. Drinking Again (Post 5), a seven-year-old gelding trained by Riley Rycroft, has the highest earnings in the field at $447,913 and a 22% win rate across 55 starts.​

Longshots: Freeze 'em (Post 3), trained by Sherri Leanne Laing and ridden by Kody Kellenberger, won at Turf Paradise two starts back over the shorter 5.5 furlongs. Staysober (Post 1) at 12/1 is a deep closer with a 20% win rate in a small sample but struggled in recent starts. Peso (Post 6) at 8/1 has a 28% win rate and has won over shorter distances.​

Race 6 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $9,000

Post Time: 3:41 PM

Race 6 is a one-mile dirt claiming event for three-year-olds and up that have never won two races. This is an eight-horse field with competitive depth. The morning line probable shows Riding By (Post 8) at 3/1, The Man The Myth (Post 6) at 7/2, Supersonic Me (Post 7) at 4/1, Regarding Harry (Post 1) and Hacksaw Mountain (Post 5) at 5/1, and Dinero De La Casa (Post 2) at 6/1. Regarding Harry (Post 1) is noted to be wearing blinkers for the first time.​

Regarding Harry (Post 1) is a front-running type who breaks from the rail — the historically most favorable post in dirt routes at Turf Paradise. Dinero De La Casa (Post 2) is also a leader type, creating a potential two-horse speed duel. Riding By (Post 8) is noted as the “fastest” horse in the field but runs as a stalker.

Key Contenders: Riding By (Post 8), a four-year-old gelding trained by Sergio Alvarez and ridden by Kevin Krigger, is listed as the fastest horse in the field with a profile that shows six second or third-place finishes in his last ten starts. Krigger posts a 21% win rate and a 50% in-the-money rate at Turf Paradise. The Man The Myth (Post 6), a five-year-old gelding for trainer Bennie L. Woolley Jr. and ridden by Geovanni Franco, carries the highest figure scores in the field (rated 75, with a top figure of 85).

Secondary Choices: Supersonic Me (Post 7), a five-year-old gelding trained by Eliana Thompson and ridden by Guillermo Rodriguez, is a mid-pack closer type with a 9% win rate in 22 starts. Regarding Harry (Post 1) adds first-time blinkers, a significant equipment change that often produces improved performance.

Longshots: Hacksaw Mountain (Post 5), a three-year-old gelding trained by Robert Baze, is the youngest horse in the field and carries 120 lbs, a six-pound advantage on the older horses. Dinero De La Casa (Post 2), trained by Alex J. Torres-Casas and ridden by Blake Nunnally, has one win but has placed four times in nine recent starts at a mile. Run Baba Run (Post 3) at 15/1 and Red Memorys (Post 4) at 15/1 have minimal recent form at this level.

Race 7 — Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $11,500

Post Time: 4:10 PM

Race 7 is a one-mile turf claiming event with a full nine-horse field, one of the largest on the card. The morning line probable shows Djoser (Post 9) at 5/2, Yellow Jacket (Post 8) at 7/2, Bang And A Boom (Post 6) at 9/2, Chances Taken (Post 1) at 5/1, with Sark (Post 2) and Prince Of Memphis (Post 4) at 8/1, and King Of The Disco (Post 5) at 10/1.​

On the Turf Paradise mile turf course, closers are rewarded and the rail post carries significant statistical weight with 39% of turf winners coming from posts 1 or 2. Prince Of Memphis (Post 4) is a “leads” type with fast fractions, and Sark (Post 2) is also a leader type. King Of The Disco (Post 5) and Djoser (Post 9) run as closers from deep positions.

Key Contenders: Djoser (Post 9), a four-year-old gelding trained by Vann Belvoir and ridden by Karlo Lopez, steps down significantly in class today and is the morning line favorite. He won impressively at a mile on January 7 at the 7.5-furlong maiden level and has two course and distance wins. His rating of 87 is the highest in the field. However, his outside post of 9 is a concern on the turf at Turf Paradise, where inside posts historically dominate. Yellow Jacket (Post 8), a five-year-old gelding trained by M.L. Pierce and ridden by Alex M. Cruz, has the highest career earnings at $190,110 and a 5% win rate in 21 starts.

Secondary Choices: Bang And A Boom (Post 6), a five-year-old gelding trained by Ryan Kenney and ridden by Guillermo Rodriguez, won his maiden at a mile over this exact course on February 26 and finished second in a follow-up effort. Sark (Post 2), a six-year-old horse trained by Frank Lucarelli and ridden by Isaias D. Enriquez, draws the second post — the historically favorable turf position at this track.

Longshots: Pure Cane Sugar (Post 3), trained by Joe Toye and ridden by Frank T. Alvarado, has a 3% win rate in 31 starts but a 32% board rate. King Of The Disco (Post 5), a four-year-old trained by Shawn H. Davis and ridden by Asencio, won his maiden at a mile on dirt recently and transitions to turf. Chances Taken (Post 1) from the rail draws the most historically favorable turf post in the field and carries a 5/1 price. Gate Guard (Post 7), trained by Ruby Thomas and ridden by Krigger, has an outside post that limits appeal. Prince Of Memphis (Post 4), trained by James L. Gilmour, is well bred and has two course wins.

Race 8 — Maiden Claiming, 5.5 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $8,500

Post Time: 4:44 PM

The final race is a five-and-a-half furlong maiden claiming event for fillies and mares three and up. Nine horses are entered. The morning line probable shows Circle Of Fire (Post 8) at 5/2, Denada (Post 2) at 3/1, Hazael (Post 9) at 7/2, My Cherry Pie (Post 1) and Score For Alice (Post 4) both at 6/1, Just A Hunch (Post 7) at 8/1, and Chipada (Post 3), Magic Authority (Post 6), and Itsgrandsalamitime (Post 5) at longer odds.​

Multiple front-running types appear in this field. Score For Alice (Post 4) is a “leads” type on fast fractions. My Cherry Pie (Post 1), trained by Frank Lucarelli, is also a fast-fractioned type from the rail. Denada (Post 2) is rated as the horse with the most consistent positional range over 5.5 furlongs, while Circle Of Fire (Post 8) offers late-running ability.

Key Contenders: Denada (Post 2), a six-year-old mare trained by Debbie Kenney and ridden by Karlo Lopez, has placed in her last four consecutive starts and is the most consistent horse in the field. She finished second behind Andramada on February 28 and was second again on February 2. Circle Of Fire (Post 8), trained by Antonio Soto and ridden by Silvio Ruiz Amador, finished runner-up in her most recent start and has two recent near-miss finishes.

Secondary Choices: Hazael (Post 9), a four-year-old filly trained by Mike Chambers and ridden by Jose Mariano Asencio, is third in the morning line at 7/2. Chambers posts an outstanding 31.58% win rate and a 65.79% place rate at the meet. Just A Hunch (Post 7), a three-year-old filly trained by Robertino Diodoro and ridden by Orlando Mojica, carries the best jockey-trainer combination in the race. Diodoro's 39.22% win rate and Mojica's 35.05% win rate are the two best numbers in the entire colony.

Longshots: Score For Alice (Post 4), trained by Neil A. Koch and ridden by Manuel Americano, is an early speed type with a 14% win rate in maiden company. My Cherry Pie (Post 1), trained by Frank Lucarelli, is a relatively young filly from the rail with speed. Chipada (Post 3), a three-year-old for trainer Bennie L. Woolley Jr. and Guillermo Rodriguez, carries youth and a low weight of 120 lbs. Itsgrandsalamitime (Post 5) and Magic Authority (Post 6) have minimal recent form and low win percentages.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Blake Nunnally leads all Turf Paradise jockeys with a 38.07% win rate, the highest in the colony. He handles A Real Jewel (Post 1) in Race 4, Heartache Tonite (Post 2) in Race 2, and Dinero De La Casa (Post 2) in Race 6 on today's card.​

Orlando Mojica is second on the leaderboard with a 35.05% win rate and an extraordinary 75.70% show rate. He rides Velocious (Post 2) in Race 4 and Just A Hunch (Post 7) in Race 8 today. His numbers at this track are elite, and the combination with trainer Diodoro on Race 4 is the strongest trainer-jockey pairing on today's card.​

Geovanni Franco is one of the most accomplished veterans in the colony, with a 34.86% win rate at Turf Paradise over 743 rides. He has Grade 1 wins on his resume including the 2025 Bing Crosby Stakes aboard Lovesick Blues. His most recent Turf Paradise appearances include wins at 12/1 (March 21) and 9/4 (March 22), reflecting sharp current form. He handles Vekoma Kid (Post 6) in Race 3, Cousin Richie (Post 7) in Race 5, and The Man The Myth (Post 6) in Race 6.

Karlo Lopez posts a 15.80% win rate and 43.05% in-the-money rate across 367 rides at the track. He picks up mounts in Races 3, 6, and 7 and has strong track knowledge. His ride aboard Chief Wild Eagle (Post 1) in Race 3 from the premium turf rail post is worth monitoring.​

Kevin Krigger, the history-making St. Croix-born jockey who rode the 2013 Kentucky Derby mount Goldencents, has expanded his book at Turf Paradise. He posts a 21% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate in his recent rides here. He rides Riding By (Post 8) in Race 6 and Gate Guard (Post 7) in Race 7.

Frank T. Alvarado posts a 12.58% win rate with a strong 22.98% career rate, and his Turf Paradise current-meet numbers show 3 wins from 16 rides at an 18.75% strike rate. He handles Evanderkeen (Post 4) in Race 3, Drinking Again (Post 5) in Race 5, and Pure Cane Sugar (Post 3) in Race 7.​

Jose Mariano Asencio handles multiple mounts today and is a solid mid-tier option with a 19% win rate at the meet. He rides Fireman Dan (Post 2) in Race 3, John Dunbar (Post 4) in Race 5, Hacksaw Mountain (Post 5) in Race 6, King Of The Disco (Post 5) in Race 7, and Hazael (Post 9) in Race 8.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Robertino Diodoro leads all Turf Paradise trainers with a 39.22% win rate and 73.20% show rate across 153 starts at the meet. He won this meet previously at Canterbury Park and Oaklawn Park and has amassed more than 2,500 career victories. He saddles Velocious (Post 2) in Race 4 and Just A Hunch (Post 7) in Race 8, both of which should be prime plays.

Matthew M. Fales posts a 35.20% win rate and is one of the most reliable trainers for short Arizona-bred sprint horses at the meet. He handles Higher Heat (Post 3) in Race 1 and Heartache Tonite (Post 2) in Race 2.​

James L. Gilmour posts a 35.20% win rate at the meet. His horses consistently hit the board, with a 64.80% in-the-money rate. He saddles Evanderkeen (Post 4) in Race 3, Miracle Ball (Post 5) in Race 4, and Prince Of Memphis (Post 4) in Race 7. Miracle Ball (Post 5) in Race 4 is perhaps the most underrated horse on the card given Gilmour's numbers and the small field.​

Jose Silva Jr. posts a 23.86% win rate at the meet with a remarkable 74.43% show rate, the highest overall board percentage among major trainers. He handles John Dunbar (Post 4) in Race 5, who represents the trainer's prime play of the day given the horse's back-to-back wins over this condition.​

Mike Chambers posts a 31.58% win rate at the meet. He handles Hazael (Post 9) in Race 8, where the trainer-jockey (Asencio) combination has an extremely strong board percentage.​

Alex J. Torres-Casas, the trainer for Msblue (Post 2) in Race 1 and Dinero De La Casa (Post 2) in Race 6, posts a 25.73% win rate. His horses tend to be well-placed at the claiming level and should be competitive in their respective races.​

Riley Rycroft handles Fireman Dan (Post 2) in Race 3 and Drinking Again (Post 5) in Race 5. He has been a competitive presence at the meet with multiple board finishes.​

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