Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Penn National, March 25, 2026.


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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight – 6f Dirt – Purse $36,000

Win: Belle Ofthe Wood (3) – 80% confidence
Place: Divulge (5) – 60% confidence
Show: Darrens Delight (1) – 60% confidence
Alternative: Likeastraightshot (2) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Analysts uniformly key Belle Ofthe Wood (3) on top off strong figures and heavy public support, making her a likely short-price single in horizontals. Divulge (5) and Darrens Delight (1) show up repeatedly underneath, suggesting a fairly formful outcome, while Likeastraightshot (2) appears as a fringe underneath type who can spice up exotics without being a primary win threat. Other runners include: Vino Amore (4), Cohesive (6).

Race 2 – Claiming – 6.5f Dirt – Purse (estimated mid-level claiming)

Win: Wajda (1) – 90% confidence
Place: Bearing Down (4) – 55% confidence
Show: Warrior's Way Out (6) – 70% confidence
Alternative: War Salute (2) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Wajda (1) is one of the strongest favorites on the card with near-unanimous top billing, making the race more about structuring exotics than identifying the winner. Warrior's Way Out (6) is consistently given a share, while Bearing Down (4) and War Salute (2) create some variance for exacta and trifecta slots, especially if the favorite underperforms slightly. Other runners include: Ollie Boy (3), Bells Run (7), Uncle Georgy (5).

Race 3 – Claiming – 6.5f Dirt – Purse (typical claiming level)

Win: Back Forty (4) – 90% confidence
Place: My Flicker (6) – 65% confidence
Show: Miles Of Smiles (5) – 55% confidence
Alternative: Susan's Mule (2) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Back Forty (4) is another heavy consensus choice, with nearly every analyst putting this runner on top or singling in win spot. My Flicker (6) and Miles Of Smiles (5) are the preferred underneath types, with Susan's Mule (2) picked often enough to warrant coverage in deeper vertical structures. Other runners include: Calvary Kat (1), Principia (3).

Race 4 – Claiming – 6f Dirt – Purse (typical claiming level)

Win: Sacred Love (4) – 85% confidence
Place: Love And Kisses (3) – 65% confidence
Show: Funding (6) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Siljim (1) – 45% confidence

Race notes: Sacred Love (4) attracts overwhelming top-pick support off the recent win and favorable setup, making this another likely short-priced key in multi-race bets. Analysts split between Love And Kisses (3), Funding (6), and Siljim (1) for the underneath spots, creating room for value if the public fixates too heavily on a single exacta combination. Other runners include: Uptown Art (5), Red Betty (2).

Race 5 – Allowance – 1m 70y Dirt – Purse $X (mid-level allowance)

Win: Surfside Moon (4) – 80% confidence
Place: Prince Colton (2) – 70% confidence
Show: Bermuda Run (6) – 60% confidence
Alternative: Mo Says (1) – 35% confidence

Race notes: While several analysts respect Prince Colton (2), the overall tilt is toward Surfside Moon (4) as the most reliable win play based on track affinity and recent form. Bermuda Run (6) is a popular underneath inclusion, with Mo Says (1), Group Ticket (7), and Ohio Joe (5) more often mentioned as supporting players who can create price inflection in deeper exotics. Other runners include: Group Ticket (7), Ohio Joe (5).

Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6.5f Dirt – Purse (AOC level)

Win: Pure Lure (2) – 65% confidence
Place: Peridot Pendant (4) – 75% confidence
Show: Braquet (6) – 60% confidence
Alternative: Vieux Carre (5) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are slightly split between Pure Lure (2) and Peridot Pendant (4) for top billing, but ranking combined frequency gives a narrow edge to Pure Lure (2) for the win slot and Peridot Pendant (4) as the most common exacta partner. Braquet (6) shows steady support for third or second, while Vieux Carre (5) and Braganza (3) are seen as more volatile options capable of outrunning odds if the race collapses late. Other runners include: Braganza (3), Normandy Life (1).

Race 7 – Claiming – 1m 70y Dirt – Purse (claiming level)

Win: Porch Swing (3) – 70% confidence
Place: Gun Right (1) – 65% confidence
Show: Letsgetluckytonite (4) – 55% confidence
Alternative: Tallahatchiebridge (2) – 40% confidence

Race notes: This is one of the more competitive events, with credible cases made for Porch Swing (3), Gun Right (1), and Letsgetluckytonite (4), though Porch Swing (3) edges the field on overall analyst preference. Tallahatchiebridge (2), Hardy Choice (5), and Strawberry Treat (7) add depth and chaos potential to vertical wagers, especially if pace pressure softens the top two choices late. Other runners include: Hardy Choice (5), Union Lights (6), Strawberry Treat (7), Admit Nothing (8).

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – Recommended Exotics

Analysts generally treat Belle Ofthe Wood (3) as a solid single in vertical and horizontal structures, so a straightforward approach is to key Belle Ofthe Wood (3) on top of exactas and trifectas using Divulge (5) and Darrens Delight (1) in the second and third spots, with Likeastraightshot (2) and Vino Amore (4) as minor inclusions. A common structure would be exacta Belle Ofthe Wood (3) over Divulge (5), Darrens Delight (1), Likeastraightshot (2), and Vino Amore (4), and trifectas 3 over 1,5 over 1,2,4,5,6 for modest coverage. In multi-race sequences, many analysts would press single A tickets with Belle Ofthe Wood (3) while allowing limited saver tickets that use Divulge (5) as a backup.

Race 2 – Recommended Exotics

With Wajda (1) a dominant choice, analysts lean toward cold or near-cold exactas such as Wajda (1) over Warrior's Way Out (6) and Bearing Down (4), keeping War Salute (2) and Ollie Boy (3) in the third slot in trifectas. A typical trifecta construction might be 1 over 4,6 over 2,3,4,6,7, and more aggressive players could consider superfectas 1 over 4,6 over 2,4,6 over all to capture any chaos for the last minor share. In serial wagers, Wajda (1) profiles as a strong single, reducing the need for spread in this leg.

Race 3 – Recommended Exotics

Back Forty (4) is widely projected as the key, so analysts are likely to build exacta and trifecta tickets with Back Forty (4) on top and My Flicker (6), Miles Of Smiles (5), and Susan's Mule (2) underneath. Exactas such as 4 over 5,6, and trifectas 4 over 5,6 over 1,2,5,6 are logical, with Calvary Kat (1) used sparingly as a longshot fourth in superfectas for added value. Multi-race players can comfortably lean on Back Forty (4) as a primary single while allowing small saver tickets that slightly upgrade My Flicker (6) if price drift warrants.

Race 4 – Recommended Exotics

Sacred Love (4) is a frequent top choice and thus a natural key horse for exactas and trifectas, with Love And Kisses (3), Funding (6), and Siljim (1) the primary underneath candidates. Analysts might favor exactas 4 over 1,3,6 and box 3,4,6 in smaller tickets, while trifectas 4 over 1,3,6 over 1,3,5,6 capture Uptown Art (5) as a less-used but capable closer. Serial sequences can treat Sacred Love (4) similarly to earlier chalks, as a core single with small backup tickets using Love and Kisses (3) as the upset alternative.

Race 5 – Recommended Exotics

Because Surfside Moon (4) and Prince Colton (2) both attract strong support, analysts are likely to emphasize exacta and trifecta combinations that pivot around this pair. Exacta boxes 2,4 and key sequences 4 over 2,6 and 2 over 4,6,1 are logical, with Bermuda Run (6) and Mo Says (1) as bullish underneath plays. Trifecta players may look to 2,4 over 1,2,4,6 over 1,2,4,5,6,7 to include Ohio Joe (5) and Group Ticket (7) as value-enhancing plodders. This race also slots well as a spread leg in horizontals when adjacent races are anchored by stronger favorites.

Race 6 – Recommended Exotics

Here, analysts tend to lean on both Pure Lure (2) and Peridot Pendant (4), encouraging two-horse keys in vertical bets. Exacta boxes 2,4 along with 2,4 over 2,4,6 in trifectas that include Braquet (6) in the second and third positions are common constructions, with Vieux Carre (5) and Braganza (3) sprinkled underneath for superfecta value. In multi-race sequences, many would label Pure Lure (2) and Peridot Pendant (4) as dual A-level horses, with Braquet (6) a B-level backup.

Race 7 – Recommended Exotics

Given the wider spread of opinion, analysts approach Race 7 with more complex structures anchored around Porch Swing (3), Gun Right (1), and Letsgetluckytonite (4). Exacta and trifecta boxes 1,3,4 are likely, with verticals such as 1,3,4 over 1,2,3,4 over 1,2,3,4,5,7 capturing Tallahatchiebridge (2), Hardy Choice (5), and Strawberry Treat (7) as price horses. For superfectas, a common structure might be 1,3,4 over 1,2,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5,7 over all, acknowledging the high-variance nature of this event.

Value Play Observations

Value Assessment by Race

In Race 1, Belle Ofthe Wood (3) will be heavily backed and may be somewhat underlaid relative to true winning chances, while Divulge (5) and Darrens Delight (1) could offer mild overlays in exactas and trifectas if the market over-concentrates on the favorite. Likeastraightshot (2) projects as a longshot whose inclusion in deeper trifectas and supers could yield disproportionate returns if improvement appears second time out.

Race 2 shapes as a classic underlay scenario around Wajda (1), whose analyst support likely pushes odds shorter than implied win probability, making the horse more attractive as a serial single than a straight win bet. Warrior's Way Out (6) and Bearing Down (4) stand out as probable overlays for place and show, particularly if War Salute (2) draws extra money from narrative-driven bettors.

Race 3 features Back Forty (4) as another strong favorite who could be slightly overbet off consistent analyst support and positive course-and-distance commentary, with higher upside in exotic keys than in win pools. My Flicker (6) and Miles Of Smiles (5) have enough analyst backing to be fairly priced, but Susan's Mule (2) and Calvary Kat (1) appear more likely to be neglected relative to their upside in deeper verticals.

In Race 4, Sacred Love (4) carries heavy consensus support and is a candidate to be underlaid, especially off a recent win that public bettors may overvalue. Love And Kisses (3), Siljim (1), and Funding (6) form a capable second tier, and any of them could be overlays if betting funnels too heavily into the Sacred Love (4)–Love and Kisses (3) combination.

Race 5 presents a more nuanced value picture, with Surfside Moon (4) the most likely favorite but Prince Colton (2) not far behind in implied probability. If the public leans disproportionately to Surfside Moon (4) based on name recognition or barn strength, Prince Colton (2) and Bermuda Run (6) can become attractive win-and-exacta overlays, while Mo Says (1) may outrun odds in a pace-affected scenario.

In Race 6, the market could compress around Pure Lure (2) and Peridot Pendant (4), making Braquet (6) and Vieux Carre (5) the more interesting value plays, particularly in second and third positions of trifectas and supers. Braganza (3), with less overt analyst support, may drift to an overlay price that suits underneath roles in high-paying structures.

Race 7 is likely to produce the most meaningful overlays, as differing analyst opinions between Porch Swing (3), Gun Right (1), and Letsgetluckytonite (4) can create inefficiencies, especially if one of the three is overbet off a flashy last-out effort. Tallahatchiebridge (2), Hardy Choice (5), and Strawberry Treat (7) are the types of mid-price runners that can be underappreciated in the betting but frequently mentioned enough by analysts to justify coverage.

Overall Wagering Strategy

Strategic Card Overview

Across this Penn National card, several races display concentrated analyst consensus around short-priced favorites, while others invite a more contrarian and spread-based approach. Races 1 through 4 in particular offer multiple candidates for strong singles in multi-race pools, whereas Races 5 through 7 bring more nuanced, price-sensitive opportunities for players willing to leverage opinion splits.

The strongest consensus races are Race 2 and Race 3, where Wajda (1) and Back Forty (4) respectively command overwhelming support and project as reliable anchors for serial wagers. Sacred Love (4) in Race 4 and Belle Ofthe Wood (3) in Race 1 form the next tier of confidence, still highly trustworthy but more vulnerable to value considerations given projected short odds and competitive underneath groups. Experienced bettors can use these races to compress tickets, pressing higher denominations on A-only combinations to maximize expected value when favorites perform as predicted.

Split-opinion races arise most clearly in Race 6 and Race 7, where realistic winning chances are distributed among multiple logical runners with relatively close confidence percentages. In Race 6, the dynamic between Pure Lure (2), Peridot Pendant (4), and Braquet (6) highlights the tension between proven class and recent form versus tactical setup and potential improvement, arguing for A/B ticket structures rather than a single-anchor strategy. Race 7 illustrates genuine diversity of opinion, with at least three win-capable runners and several live prices, suggesting that more flexible, spread-oriented tactics are warranted rather than a heavily pressed single.

Multi-race sequences such as late Pick 3s and Pick 4s can be built by anchoring around the densest consensus spots while allowing controlled freedom in the more chaotic legs. A plausible approach is to single Wajda (1) in Race 2 and Back Forty (4) in Race 3, then make Sacred Love (4) a primary but not exclusive key in Race 4, while fanning out moderately in Race 5 and more widely in Race 7. This design permits concentration of capital where the card offers clear edges, while still exploiting the upside from the more uncertain events that can inflate payouts through modest upsets.

Exotic value opportunities are most pronounced in races where form appears reliable on top but the underneath slots contain multiple plausible outcomes, such as Races 1, 2, 3, and 4. In these spots, superfecta wheels that fix a dominant runner in the win slot but allow broad coverage for third and fourth can often capture high-paying combinations without excessive cost. Races like 5 and 7, with more evenly matched fields, lend themselves to tighter trifecta and superfecta boxes or partial wheels that prioritize a cluster of mid-range prices rather than an odds-on key.

Environmental and track factors, including typical Penn National evening dirt profiles, can further refine strategy, with a mild bias toward tactical speed often rewarded but not to the exclusion of closing types in well-run races. If live observations indicate a developing inside or speed bias, upgrading front-running or pace-pressing types such as Belle Ofthe Wood (3), Surfside Moon (4), and Gun Right (1) becomes sensible, whereas a more neutral surface would argue for maintaining the consensus balance among styles. Monitoring early-race pace patterns and how favorites are performing against second-tier contenders can guide mid-card adjustments in exotic structure and single decisions.

Key takeaways for bettors are to treat the strongest consensus horses—particularly Wajda (1), Back Forty (4), and Sacred Love (4)—as structural pillars of multi-race wagers while avoiding heavy straight-win exposure at likely underlay odds. At the same time, surrounding these anchors with thoughtful use of identified overlays in underneath roles and in the more open races (notably 5, 6, and 7) can substantially improve return profiles without requiring multiple major upsets. By combining disciplined ticket compression in the high-confidence races with calculated spreading where analyst opinion diverges, bettors can construct a portfolio of wagers that balances hit rate and payoff potential across the entire card.

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