Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 34 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Lunged start. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 34 days since last race. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.9 pts: [84, 99, 104, 85, 89]) — unpredictable performer. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Sharp Return Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Track Specialist.
LGBM: 49 (3/4) CatBoost: 100 (1/4) XGB: 85 (2/4) LGBM-LS: 97 (3/4) CatBoost-LS: 82 (3/4) XGB-LS: 33 (4/4) Win Prob: 76.1% Value Score: 3.44 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: 0.09 Fair Odds: 3.50 (5/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | F |
| Turf Speed | B | D |
| Distance Speed | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Sprint FPS | B | F |
| Route FPS | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (104) — 10 pts above recent average. (2) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (3) Track specialist — 5 wins from 8 starts here (62%). (4) Has won at today's distance (350 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Returning from 418-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (6) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 418 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Clear early; held safe. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Win Streak Momentum, Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Sharp Return Workout, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Track Specialist.
LGBM: 84 (2/4) CatBoost: 88 (2/4) XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 100 (1/4) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/4) XGB-LS: 53 (3/4) Win Prob: 72.4% Value Score: 2.8 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -7.49 Fair Odds: 4.46 (7/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | F |
| Turf Speed | B | D |
| Distance Speed | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Sprint FPS | B | F |
| Route FPS | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 7 starts (43%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (3) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (4) Track specialist — 2 wins from 7 starts here (29%). (5) Strong speed 2 back (101), modest dip last out (95) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (6) Has won at today's distance (350 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Returning from 42-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (8) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 42 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Bump start; inch ahead. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 42 days since last race. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Win Streak Momentum, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Sharp Return Workout, Won at This Distance, Form Reversal, Won Here Before, Track Specialist, Hot Jockey.
LGBM: 34 (4/4) CatBoost: 83 (3/4) XGB: 62 (3/4) LGBM-LS: 97 (2/4) CatBoost-LS: 96 (2/4) XGB-LS: 100 (1/4) Win Prob: 59.9% Value Score: 3.09 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: 0.24 Fair Odds: 4.10 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | F |
| Turf Speed | B | D |
| Distance Speed | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Sprint FPS | B | F |
| Route FPS | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (96) — 11 pts above recent average. (2) Has won at today's distance (300 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 40 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Steady bid;outfinished. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 40 days since last race. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance.
LGBM: 81 (3/11) CatBoost: 99 (2/11) XGB: 100 (1/11) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/11) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/11) XGB-LS: 91 (2/11) Win Prob: 43.7% Value Score: 2.65 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -6.23 Fair Odds: 8.71 (8/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Finish Pos | C | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Sprint FPS | C | F |
| Route FPS | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 5 wins from 18 starts (28%). (2) Big last-race effort (97) — 15 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) Fourth race back from a 95-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Has won at today's distance (300 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Speed improved +4 pts then +10 pts in last 2 starts (83 → 87 → 97) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Broke in; steady bid. (2) No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. (3) Post 7 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.6 pts: [97, 87, 83, 75, 78]) — unpredictable performer. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Form Surge, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
LGBM: 100 (1/11) CatBoost: 92 (3/11) XGB: 95 (3/11) LGBM-LS: 3 (10/11) CatBoost-LS: 94 (3/11) XGB-LS: 44 (6/11) Win Prob: 51.3% Value Score: 3.88 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.60 Fair Odds: 8.42 (7/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Sprint FPS | C | F |
| Route FPS | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 15 starts (27%). (2) Has won at today's distance (300 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (71) well below field median (78). (2) Trip note from last race: Bumped; pinched back. (3) Outside post (9) in a large field of 12 horses. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. (5) Post 9 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.8 pts: [78, 99, 80, 92, 84]) — unpredictable performer. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before.
LGBM: 53 (7/11) CatBoost: 55 (8/11) XGB: 75 (5/11) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 56 (8/11) XGB-LS: 31 (7/11) Win Prob: 33% Value Score: 2.99 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -2.29 Fair Odds: 10.46 (9/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Sprint FPS | C | F |
| Route FPS | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (86) well above field median (78). (2) Big last-race effort (99) — 20 pts above recent average. (3) Has won at today's distance (300 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Speed improved +18 pts then +11 pts in last 2 starts (70 → 88 → 99) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Late bid; no menace. (2) Outside post (12) in a large field of 12 horses. (3) Post 12 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (4) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (70 → 88 → 99) and last race speed is well above career average (86) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Form Surge, Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance.
LGBM: 87 (2/11) CatBoost: 100 (1/11) XGB: 99 (2/11) LGBM-LS: 1 (11/11) CatBoost-LS: 90 (4/11) XGB-LS: 77 (3/11) Win Prob: 51.3% Value Score: 4.27 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.96 Fair Odds: 8.94 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Sprint FPS | C | F |
| Route FPS | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (2) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (3) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 95 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($6,250 → $8,500). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Has never raced on turf surface. (4) Switching from dirt to turf today. (5) Trip note from last race: Shuffld st;surg clr;4p. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (7) First start at TUP — never raced here before (last seen at: TUP). (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Win Streak Momentum, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Hot Trainer, First-Time Turf with Pedigree.
LGBM: 97 (2/5) CatBoost: 99 (2/5) XGB: 78 (2/5) LGBM-LS: 98 (2/5) CatBoost-LS: 94 (2/5) XGB-LS: 57 (2/5) Win Prob: 68.4% Value Score: 2.91 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -4.25 Fair Odds: 4.20 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | B |
| Route FPS | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (78) well above field median (68). (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 95 vs field 89). (3) Strong speed 2 back (78), modest dip last out (70) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (4) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Career-best figure (87) buried in races 4–10 back — 19 pts above race median and 9 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($6,250 → $8,500). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (4) Switching from dirt to turf today. (5) Trip note from last race: Set pace; gamely. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($20,000 → $10,000 → $6,250). (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.4 pts: [70, 78, 64, 83, 87]) — unpredictable performer. (9) First start at TUP — never raced here before (last seen at: TUP, EMD). (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hidden Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Early Speed Edge, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance.
LGBM: 100 (1/5) CatBoost: 100 (1/5) XGB: 100 (1/5) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/5) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/5) XGB-LS: 2 (5/5) Win Prob: 66.1% Value Score: 3.22 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -0.41 Fair Odds: 3.96 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | A |
| Route FPS | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($12,500 → $8,500). (2) Speed average (68) well above field median (62). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). (4) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 19 wins from 60 starts (32%). (5) Career-best speed figure (72) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (6) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (7) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 74 vs field 70). (8) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (9) Career-best figure (78) buried in races 4–10 back — 16 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 4p 1/8;shiftd in;game. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.4 pts: [72, 56, 68, 78, 63]) — unpredictable performer. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Hot Jockey, Hot Trainer.
LGBM: 66 (2/6) CatBoost: 82 (2/6) XGB: 47 (2/6) LGBM-LS: 8 (4/6) CatBoost-LS: 86 (2/6) XGB-LS: 44 (5/6) Win Prob: 62% Value Score: 3.69 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -0.74 Fair Odds: 5.23 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($12,500 → $8,500). (2) Trainer 'TRUJILLO VICTOR M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (3) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Trip note from last race: Pressed;led 1/16;game. (4) Last race was career-best speed (72) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Stable on Fire.
LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 79 (3/6) Win Prob: 70.8% Value Score: 2.81 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -4.87 Fair Odds: 3.92 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 78-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($12,500 → $8,500). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (48%). (4) Career-best speed figure (66) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (6) Dropping in class ($8,500 vs last $12,500) after a 78-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 78 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Duel inside; weakened. (6) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop After Rest, Class Drop, Hot Jockey, Hot Trainer.
LGBM: 62 (3/6) CatBoost: 65 (3/6) XGB: 17 (5/6) LGBM-LS: 14 (3/6) CatBoost-LS: 57 (3/6) XGB-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 53.4% Value Score: 3.53 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.35 Fair Odds: 5.47 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 84 vs fast: 78). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (56%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 35 wins from 121 starts (29%). (4) Career-best speed figure (78) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (6) Strong speed 2 back (79), modest dip last out (74) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Career-best figure (84) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Averages 77.5 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 70.8 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Switching from turf to dirt today. (3) Trip note from last race: Inside;needed more. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.1 pts: [74, 79, 48, 73, 70]) — unpredictable performer. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hidden Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Form Reversal, Off-Track Preference, Won Here Before, Return to Proven Setup, Hot Jockey, Hot Trainer.
LGBM: 90 (2/6) CatBoost: 51 (4/6) XGB: 55 (4/6) LGBM-LS: 3 (6/6) CatBoost-LS: 51 (4/6) XGB-LS: 18 (6/6) Win Prob: 52.3% Value Score: 3.61 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.19 Fair Odds: 5.81 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | D | B |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | F | B |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Sprint FPS | F | C |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (50%). (2) Big last-race effort (84) — 10 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) Speed improved +4 pts then +5 pts in last 2 starts (75 → 79 → 84) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Block 1/16th; checked. (3) Last race was career-best speed (84) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 29 days since last race. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.2 pts: [84, 79, 75, 69, 55]) — unpredictable performer. (6) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Form Surge, Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Hot Trainer.
LGBM: 56 (5/6) CatBoost: 64 (3/6) XGB: 64 (3/6) LGBM-LS: 4 (5/6) CatBoost-LS: 59 (3/6) XGB-LS: 48 (3/6) Win Prob: 57.9% Value Score: 3.63 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -0.85 Fair Odds: 5.63 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | F | B |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (2) Big last-race effort (87) — 10 pts above recent average. (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 86 vs field 81). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'S']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Inside bid; responded. (2) Last race was career-best speed (87) — bounce risk after peak effort. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Hot Trainer.
LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 60 (2/6) Win Prob: 59.5% Value Score: 2.61 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.38 Fair Odds: 4.75 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (75) — 11 pts above recent average. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Settled; 2w; no match. (2) Last race was career-best speed (75) — bounce risk after peak effort. (3) Post 7 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.8 pts: [75, 54, 72, 65, 54]) — unpredictable performer. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before.
LGBM: 60 (5/8) CatBoost: 63 (3/8) XGB: 55 (4/8) LGBM-LS: 6 (7/8) CatBoost-LS: 58 (3/8) XGB-LS: 83 (4/8) Win Prob: 48.6% Value Score: 3.58 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.51 Fair Odds: 7.30 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 48-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (67) well above field median (62). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (4) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 7 wins from 16 starts (44%). (5) Career-best speed figure (80) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (6) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 85). (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 48 days. (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Trip note from last race: Chased; 4w; faltered;. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (5) Post 8 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.3 pts: [60, 80, 73, 74, 47]) — unpredictable performer. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Hot Trainer.
LGBM: 100 (1/8) CatBoost: 89 (2/8) XGB: 87 (2/8) LGBM-LS: 14 (6/8) CatBoost-LS: 93 (2/8) XGB-LS: 69 (5/8) Win Prob: 64.7% Value Score: 3.9 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -2.83 Fair Odds: 6.28 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 212-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (73) well above field median (62). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (5) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (7) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 69). (8) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (9) Strong speed 2 back (74), modest dip last out (68) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (10) Consistent workout spacing (6, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (11) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (12) Returning from 212-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (13) Last race: surged from 7th at 1st call to 3rd/2nd at stretch but faded to 4th — hidden energy often signals next-race win. (14) Career-best figure (83) buried in races 4–10 back — 21 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (15) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (16) Averages 76.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 66.5 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 212 days. (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Trip note from last race: Steadied; willingly. (4) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (5) Post 9 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Bullet Workout, Return to Proven Setup, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Late Kick Advantage, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Form Reversal, Sharp Workout Pattern, Middle Move Upside.
LGBM: 97 (2/8) CatBoost: 100 (1/8) XGB: 100 (1/8) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/8) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/8) XGB-LS: 21 (6/8) Win Prob: 62.4% Value Score: 2.93 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.97 Fair Odds: 5.52 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($8,500 → $4,000). (2) Speed average (78) well above field median (70). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (54%). (4) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 15 starts (27%). (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 76). (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (9) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (10) Has won at TUP on turf in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (11) Career-best figure (84) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (12) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Rallied; 6w; driving. (2) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hidden Figure, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Class Drop, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Sharp Gate Work.
LGBM: 99 (2/7) CatBoost: 100 (1/7) XGB: 100 (1/7) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/7) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/7) XGB-LS: 90 (2/7) Win Prob: 66.6% Value Score: 3.32 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.88 Fair Odds: 5.59 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($6,250 → $4,000). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Has won at TUP on turf in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Career-best figure (85) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 13 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (4 of 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 3p; bid5p3/16; led1/8. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hidden Figure, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Won Here Before.
LGBM: 89 (3/7) CatBoost: 71 (3/7) XGB: 85 (3/7) LGBM-LS: 8 (6/7) CatBoost-LS: 69 (4/7) XGB-LS: 29 (6/7) Win Prob: 46.2% Value Score: 2.88 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.41 Fair Odds: 5.84 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($6,250 → $4,000). (2) Track specialist — 2 wins from 7 starts here (29%). (3) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at TUP on turf in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'L']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (4 of 6 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 3p; fan 8p lane; rally. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Track Specialist.
LGBM: 100 (1/7) CatBoost: 95 (2/7) XGB: 87 (2/7) LGBM-LS: 99 (2/7) CatBoost-LS: 95 (2/7) XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 60.3% Value Score: 2.63 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -7.46 Fair Odds: 5.47 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | B | A |
| Distance Speed | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 65). (3) Career-best figure (68) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Duck in st;lack rm str. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (5) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 29 days since last race. (7) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Hidden Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage.
LGBM: 85 (2/9) CatBoost: 78 (2/9) XGB: 94 (2/9) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 80 (2/9) XGB-LS: 86 (3/9) Win Prob: 44.2% Value Score: 3.55 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: 0.07 Fair Odds: 7.00 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | D |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%).
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.
LGBM: 77 (3/9) CatBoost: 78 (3/9) XGB: 82 (3/9) LGBM-LS: 5 (8/9) CatBoost-LS: 77 (3/9) XGB-LS: 93 (2/9) Win Prob: 43.5% Value Score: 2.92 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -4.85 Fair Odds: 8.92 (8/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | C | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (64) — 12 pts above recent average. (2) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (2) Trip note from last race: No match; stayed on. (3) Outside post (10) in a large field of 10 horses. (4) Last race was career-best speed (64) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) Post 10 in a 10-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback.
LGBM: 100 (1/9) CatBoost: 100 (1/9) XGB: 100 (1/9) LGBM-LS: 78 (3/9) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/9) XGB-LS: 72 (7/9) Win Prob: 56% Value Score: 3 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.01 Fair Odds: 5.83 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | A | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | A | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | F |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
TL;DR
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Turf Paradise Picks – April 7, 2026
Warm sunny conditions at 88°F with southwest winds 10-15 mph; fast sealed dirt favors front-runners from posts 1-5, firm turf benefits outside posts and stalkers.
Race 1 — 350y Dirt Clm $25k
Say Somthing (1) tops with strong gate speed in Fales barn double; Hes My Sweetheart (2) co-favorite with clean break potential. Goodbye Tyme (3) second Fales entry at value price.
Race 2 — 300y Dirt Alw N2L
Sizzle Me Perry (1) morning line favorite from rail in large field; Munsters (7) and Da Milagro (12) co-favorites with solid connections despite post draws. Apollitical Blue (9) bloodline edge at 5-1.
Race 3 — 1,100y Turf Clm $8.5k
Flyin By (4) 2-1 favorite with tactical speed on firm turf; Sing A Happy Song (6) adds pace pressure at 3-1. Monitor late turf scratches.
Race 4 — 1m Dirt Mcl
Prowling Cat (5) leads with Trujillo's maiden success and track jock; Road Rules (6) class drop second off layoff. Rowan August (1) sharp works from hot barn.
Race 5 — 1m Dirt Alw F&M
Saleen G T (7) Lucarelli hot form in speed duel; Kitty House (2) Diodoro dropper with elite shipper angle. Ima Margarita Girl (3) consistent front-end.
Race 6 — 1m Dirt OClm $50k
Cantcatchthiscat (9) Lucarelli class drop in hot pace; Senor Tequilas (7) Preciado sprint fit. Secret Insanity (8) claimer improver.
Race 7 — 1m Turf OClm $4k
Poker Alice (8) consistent dropper with leading form on firm turf; True Patriot (1) sharp inside draw and turf rider. Vronsky Feint (2) meet standout presser.
Race 8 — 1,430y Dirt MSW
Larry's Gold (10) morning line favorite with Brisnet endorsement; Benedicici (5) debut promise from sharp barn. Monster Matt (2) pace presser.
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✓ Positives:(1) Track specialist — 3 wins from 8 starts here (38%). (2) Has won at today's distance (350 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Returning from 34-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (4) Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.