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Churchill Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the May 1, 2026 card

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Churchill Downs — Kentucky Oaks Day

Race Day Overview: Friday, May 1, 2026

Welcome to one of the great days in American horse racing. Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs delivers a 13-race card headlined by the 152nd running of the Grade I Kentucky Oaks at 8:40 p.m. ET, marking the first time in the race's storied history that the Oaks will be contested under the lights in primetime. The $1.5 million race for three-year-old fillies tops a card that also features the Grade II Alysheba, the Grade I La Troienne, the Grade II Eight Belles, the Grade II Unbridled Sidney, the Grade II Edgewood, the Grade III Modesty, and a full slate of maiden and claiming contests to open the day.

The Oaks has attracted a full field of 17 fillies, with the morning line headed by Zany (2) at 4-1 and Meaning (5) at 5-1, though Explora (1) at 6-1 for Bob Baffert and Percy's Bar (11) at 6-1 for Ben Colebrook have drawn considerable attention. Handicappers have spotlighted Prom Queen (10) as a value play at 8-1, with the Brad Cox-trained filly earning significant support from those who have studied the form closely.

The undercard stakes are loaded. The Grade II Alysheba goes at 9 furlongs on the main track with Baeza (2) the 2-1 favorite for Bill Mott. The Grade I La Troienne at $1 million features Shred The Gnar (5) at 3-1 in a strong field of older fillies and mares. The Grade II Eight Belles presents On Time Girl (9) as the 2-1 choice for Brad Cox. Churchill Downs is deploying its best jockey colony for Oaks Day, with Tyler Gaffalione, Irad Ortiz Jr., Flavien Prat, Jose Ortiz, Luis Saez, Joel Rosario, and J.J. Castellano all active throughout the card.

Couplet (Post 4 in Race 4), a Juddmonte homebred Gun Runner filly making her first start for trainer Michael McCarthy, is one of the most closely watched horses on the undercard based on strong morning drills at Churchill Downs. That race goes as Race 4 at 2:00 p.m.

Weather and Track Conditions

Churchill Downs is forecast for partly cloudy skies on May 1 with temperatures in the mid-60s at post time for the early races, cooling into the upper 50s by the time the Oaks goes off at 8:40 p.m. ET. No significant rainfall is anticipated through the afternoon or evening, which should allow the main track to remain fast and the turf courses to be in good to firm condition. Humidity will be elevated in the Ohio Valley, which is typical for early May in Louisville, and trainers have been taking advantage of the clear mornings earlier in the week for final conditioning drills.

The Churchill Downs main track has been playing fast and fair through the Oaks and Derby week training sessions. No significant track maintenance issues have been reported heading into the card. The turf course, used in Races 5, 7, 10, and 12, is expected to be rated good to firm based on the dry conditions leading into the weekend. Track superintendent reports indicate both surfaces are in excellent shape for the biggest week of the year. If any late-week showers materialized overnight, expect officials to announce a turf course rating adjustment prior to first post.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

The Churchill Downs main track in the one-turn sprint configuration at 6.5 furlongs and 7 furlongs has historically shown a slight inside-to-mid-track preference when the surface is fast and the strip is sealed. Early pace plays a decisive role on fast days — horses that can get into good position without expending excessive energy in the first three furlongs have a strong advantage. At one mile and an eighth on the main track, early pace advantage is somewhat neutralized by the long run into the first turn, and closers get a legitimate look. However, the 1 5/16-mile Oaks distance benefits horses with an ability to conserve early.

For two-turn routes on the main track, Posts 1 through 5 have generally been advantageous at Churchill Downs, particularly at the mile-and-an-eighth trip where the run to the first turn is not long enough to allow wide horses to get into stride. This has particular relevance for Race 9 (Alysheba, 9.5 furlongs), Race 11 (La Troienne, 9.5 furlongs), and Race 13 (Kentucky Oaks, 10 furlongs).

On the turf course, Churchill Downs has historically played to the advantage of horses that can sit within three to four lengths of the pace and have the tactical speed to circle wide on the final turn. Rail-skimming closers have been successful in the spring meet when the turf is firm, but horses that have to circle six or seven wide in the stretch often sacrifice too much ground.

Post 1 at Churchill Downs in turf routes has been a mixed blessing — the inside draw can be advantageous for patient stalkers but dangerous for horses that need clear running. Race 12 (Edgewood-G2) and Race 10 (Modesty-G3) both carry large fields on the turf, and middle post positions in those races (4 through 8) are preferred.

RACE 1 — Post (12:30) — 1870f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $120,000

Seven fillies and mares go 9.5 furlongs on the main track in a $120,000 maiden special weight. The field is modest in size but carries some notable connections.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

The pace picture here is relatively straightforward. Phantom Blue (1) projects as the lone confirmed pace-setter based on her connections and early running style typical of Brendan Walsh trainees at this distance. Soaring High (6) under Irad Ortiz Jr. figures to press or stalk the pace from mid-pack. The overall pace should be moderate to contested, setting up a stalker-to-closer scenario that could benefit a well-meant, lightly raced filly with a stamina pedigree.

Key Contenders

Phantom Blue (1), the 1-1 morning line favorite for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione, is the class of this field on paper. Walsh has been in terrific form, and Gaffalione is the meet's leading jockey. The heavy favoritism suggests this filly has been working well enough to command significant attention from the stable.

Soaring High (6) at 4-1 for trainer Cherie Devaux and Irad Ortiz Jr. is the most logical threat to the favorite. Devaux has been adept at placing maiden fillies at Churchill Downs, and Ortiz Jr. gets on well with developing horses that need to learn their craft on the big oval.

Episist (7) at 4-1 for Steve Asmussen and Jose Ortiz rounds out the top tier. Asmussen is perennially among the nation's leading trainers by wins and the barn has multiple winners at this meet. Jose Ortiz provides an elite hands at the reins.

Secondary Choices

Mass (5) at 8-1 for Michael McCarthy and Flavien Prat is worth including in exacta coverage. McCarthy has been sharp with maiden fillies and Prat is one of the more technically skilled riders in the country on a horse that may need a couple of trips to get the job done. The McCarthy-Prat combination at Churchill Downs deserves respect.

Longshots

Sister Jean (3) at 12-1 for D. Whitworth Beckman and Jaime Torres is a deep longshot, though Beckman has managed some live maiden types at longer prices. Butterfly Jasmine (2) at 15-1 for Wayne Catalano and B.J. Hernandez Jr. is a dart throw at best on the morning line. Haywinii (4) at 20-1 for Ben Colebrook and Luan Machado is likely outgunned by the top connections in this spot.

Betting Strategy

This race presents a straightforward wagering scenario. Phantom Blue (1) at 1-1 is likely to go off even shorter than the morning line, making win betting a poor value proposition. The better angle is to use Soaring High (6) and Episist (7) underneath in exactas and look for Mass (5) as a saver in the trifecta. If Phantom Blue (1) is 4-5 or shorter at post time, the value play is boxing Soaring High (6) and Episist (7) in the exacta.

Selections

Win: Soaring High (6) Place: Episist (7) Show: Mass (5)

RACE 2 — Post (1:00) — 1760f | D | AO | OClm 80000n2x | BUM | Purse $134,000

Nine older horses go one mile on the main track in an optional claiming event at $80,000 for non-winners of two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter. This is a solid condition race with sharp connections throughout.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

Five A Side (9) with Flavien Prat for John Servis and Chopsticks (3) with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Brad Cox both figure to be involved early. Quantum Burst (5) for Eddie Kenneally and Jose Ortiz could also press forward. The pace should be honest, creating an opportunity for a closer to sweep late. Sudden Switch (7) for Riley Mott and Jaime Torres rates as a prominent stalker who could benefit if the early speed duels itself into submission.

Key Contenders

Five A Side (9) at 3-1 is the morning line favorite and Prat takes the mount for John Servis, a conditioner who rarely ships horses into Churchill Downs without purpose. At one mile, Servis horses have historically been well-prepared for the distance, and Prat's clockwork handling of pace scenarios makes this horse the one to beat despite the outside draw.

Chopsticks (3) at 4-1 for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. gets a prime draw and one of the best jockeys in training. Cox is one of the nation's elite trainers and is very much in the hunt at this meet. Expect this horse to be positioned well early and have every chance in the stretch.

Sudden Switch (7) at 4-1 for Riley Mott and Jaime Torres is another key contender. Mott is a capable conditioner and the Riley Mott barn has been competitive at this level.

Secondary Choices

Amalfi Drive (1) at 6-1 for Michael Stidham and B.J. Hernandez Jr. warrants respect from the rail. Stidham is a careful placer and this horse's form at this level suggests it is ready to take the next step. Quantum Burst (5) at 6-1 for Eddie Kenneally and Jose Ortiz is another whose class fits this event.

Decadent (2) at 8-1 for Ken McPeek and Luis Saez gets McPeek's top rider and could be live at a price if the pace sets up favorably. Anna's Promise (6) at 8-1 for Carlos David and Junior Alvarado rounds out the secondary tier worth including in exotics.

Longshots

White Rocks (4) at 10-1 for Arnaud Delacour and Tyler Gaffalione is a horse to monitor. Delacour is not a high-volume shipper and brings horses to Churchill Downs when they are ready to run. Carmel Rose (8) at 30-1 for Anthony Stephen and Luan Machado is a throw-out at the morning line.

Betting Strategy

With three horses at 4-1 or less and several at 6-1, this race offers some genuine wagering complexity. The recommended approach is to key Five A Side (9) over Chopsticks (3) and Sudden Switch (7) in the exacta, with a saver ticket keying Chopsticks (3) on top. Use all three in trifecta combinations with Amalfi Drive (1) and Quantum Burst (5) as third-place finishers. The optional claiming condition means well-meant, placed horses will be wheeled into this spot, so wide trifecta coverage is advised.

Selections

Win: Five A Side (9) Place: Chopsticks (3) Show: Sudden Switch (7)

RACE 3 — Post (1:30) — 1870f | D | AO | OClm 125000n1x | BOF | Purse $127,000

Eleven fillies and mares go 9.5 furlongs on the main track in an optional claiming event at $125,000, non-winners of one race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. The field is full and the quality is high.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

This is a complex pace scenario with multiple horses capable of pressing forward. Joyful Justice (5) for Brad Cox and J.J. Castellano is expected to be well-placed early. Leinani (9) for Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione figures to stalk from a comfortable position. Star Actress (10) for Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado is another that typically runs near the pace. The distance of 9.5 furlongs on the main track historically rewards the stalker who can rate comfortably through the first mile and close with authority into the stretch.

Key Contenders

Star Actress (10) at 4-1 for Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado is the most compelling horse in this field. Mott is one of the most respected trainers in the country and has a strong record placing lightly raced fillies in these optional claiming spots at Churchill Downs. Alvarado is a strong finisher handler. The 4-1 morning line likely compresses at post time given the connections.

Leinani (9) at 5-1 for Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione is a formidable threat. Brown's grass horses are legendary but his dirt fillies in route conditions have also been very competitive at this level. The post position from the 9-hole is workable at 9.5 furlongs.

Betty's Pearl (7) at 4-1 for Brian Lynch and Mario Gutierrez is another key figure. Lynch has been among the better trainers for distance fillies in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest circuits, and 4-1 is a reasonable morning line for a filly that fits the conditions well.

Secondary Choices

Joyful Justice (5) at 6-1 for Brad Cox and J.J. Castellano offers Cox-Castellano, one of the most potent trainer-jockey combinations in the sport. Cox has been training at an exceptional level through this meet and this filly's likely stalking position from post 5 is ideal.

Measure (2) at 6-1 for Mark Casse and Irad Ortiz Jr. is not to be overlooked. Casse is active at Churchill Downs this week and Ortiz Jr. rarely rides a horse without purpose. Maximum Offer (6) at 6-1 for Ken McPeek and Jose Ortiz gives McPeek two shots in this race alongside Miss Call (4), and McPeek has been known to spread his strengths across fields in this way.

Longshots

Miss Call (4) at 10-1 for Ken McPeek and B.J. Hernandez Jr. could be the stable's live option despite the longer price. Making Daisys (1) at 15-1 for Wesley Ward and J.R. Velazquez deserves some exotic attention — Ward's fillies at route distances occasionally pop at big prices. Krissys Star (3) at 15-1 for William Morey and Flavien Prat is a dart, though Prat's presence keeps it from being a complete throw-out. Ur Desire (8) at 20-1 for Lindsay Schultz and Luis Saez, Feisty Red Head (11) at 20-1 for Mark Glatt and Mike Smith are remote longshots. Feisty Red Head (11) with Mike Smith aboard at 20-1 is worth noting only because of the Hall of Fame jockey's ability to produce career-best efforts from underrated runners.

Betting Strategy

Use Star Actress (10) and Leinani (9) as the primary key horses in exactas. Betty's Pearl (7) and Joyful Justice (5) are legitimate threats and should be included in trifecta spreads. The 11-horse field warrants superfecta coverage, and Making Daisys (1) at 15-1 is an interesting bomb to toss into the fourth-place slot. A $1 superfecta wheel with Star Actress (10) on top over Leinani (9) and Betty's Pearl (7) over all others offers reasonable potential return.

Selections

Win: Star Actress (10) Place: Leinani (9) Show: Betty's Pearl (7)

RACE 4 — Post (2:00) — 1540f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $120,000

Thirteen fillies go seven furlongs on the main track in a maiden special weight. This is a loaded, high-profile race featuring several high-profile entrants including the Juddmonte homebred Couplet (4).

Race 4

Pace Analysis

With 13 fillies in a seven-furlong sprint, the pace could get heated early. Tammy's Kiss (11) at 4-1 for Philip Bauer and Tyler Gaffalione and Hedge Book (1) at 4-1 for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat are both expected to be forwardly placed. The presence of Couplet (4) adds intrigue, as Michael McCarthy's fillies often show tactical speed in their debuts. A moderate to honest pace sets up well for the stalkers and late-running types in a 13-horse maiden sprint at Churchill Downs.

Key Contenders

Couplet (4) at 6-1 for Michael McCarthy and Juan J. Hernandez is the most-discussed maiden in this race. The Juddmonte homebred Gun Runner filly was acquired by the powerhouse Juddmonte operation and placed with McCarthy. Reports of strong morning workouts at Churchill Downs heading into this start have generated considerable attention. Juddmonte breeds exclusively for quality and rarely enters horses that are not ready to perform. The 6-1 morning line represents solid value given the connections and the reported sharpness of her recent drills.

Hedge Book (1) at 4-1 for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat is a formidable debut threat. Brown leads the nation in percentage of first-time starters, and Flavien Prat's ability to develop young horses into contenders makes this a must-include. The rail draw is a concern at seven furlongs in a 13-horse field.

Tammy's Kiss (11) at 4-1 for Philip Bauer and Tyler Gaffalione. Bauer has been training sharply at this meet and Gaffalione knows the Churchill Downs strip better than any rider at the meet. The post position from 11 gives this filly room to find her stride without traffic complications.

Secondary Choices

Passerine (6) at 8-1 for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. is a legitimate contender. Cox is a master at developing young fillies and Ortiz Jr. is always dangerous. At 8-1, this is a value play worthy of exacta coverage alongside the top choices.

Tramuntana (13) at 8-1 for Eddie Kenneally and Luis Saez gets the outside draw in a 13-horse field, which can be a disadvantage at seven furlongs, but Kenneally is a careful conditioner and Saez provides top-tier handling. Serena's Surprise (8) at 12-1 for Genaro Garcia and Victor Carrasco is an outsider worth including in trifecta spreads at a price.

Longshots

Battis Grove (3) at 10-1 for William Walden and J.R. Velazquez — Velazquez's presence bumps this one's viability slightly. Power To Glory (2) at 20-1 for Jerry Dixon Jr. and Fernando De La Cruz, Bella Ella (7) at 15-1 for Donnie Von Hemel and Junior Alvarado, Gerber Daisy (5) at 15-1 for Greg Foley and Jose Ortiz (Ortiz's presence is notable even on a 15-1 shot), Lexi V. (9) at 15-1 for George Arnold II and Edgar Morales, Zengraya (12) at 15-1 for Greg Foley and Adam Beschizza, and Rose Of San Antone (10) at 20-1 for John Ennis and Danny Sheehy are all in the outer tier. Gerber Daisy (5) with Jose Ortiz is the one most likely to produce a surprise from this group.

Betting Strategy

The story of this race is Couplet (4) and whether the Juddmonte homebred debuts as her connections intend. The sharp workouts reported and the quality of the connections make her an interesting win bet at 6-1 if the price holds. Key Tammy's Kiss (11) and Hedge Book (1) in exactas over Couplet (4), and reverse all three. Include Passerine (6) in trifecta positions. This is a strong race for a rolling trifecta or superfecta with multiple configurations.

Selections

Win: Couplet (4) Place: Tammy's Kiss (11) Show: Hedge Book (1)

RACE 5 — Post (2:35) — 1760f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $120,000

Sixteen horses go one mile on the turf in a maiden special weight on the north turf course. With 16 runners, this is a chaotic opener to the afternoon's turf action.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

The 16-horse turf maiden presents a complex pace scenario. Prepped (10) at 3-1 for Cherie Devaux and Jose Ortiz and Royal Guard (11) at 5-1 for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. are the two horses with the most pressing connections. Executive (6) at 4-1 for Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado typically runs from a stalking position. The pace in a 16-horse turf maiden often collapses on itself in the early stages as horses settle into position, making the ability to stalk off a moderate pace especially important.

Key Contenders

Prepped (10) at 3-1 for Cherie Devaux and Jose Ortiz is the morning line favorite. Devaux is a sharp conditioner of turf maidens and Jose Ortiz is among the best turf riders at this meet. The 10-post in a 16-horse mile turf race is workable — expect Ortiz to get Prepped (10) into a comfortable stalking position in the first half-mile.

Royal Guard (11) at 5-1 for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. is the other prime contender. Cox's turf program has been exceptional and Irad Ortiz Jr. has tremendous feel for pace on the lawn. Post 11 gives this horse room to breathe in the early stages.

Executive (6) at 4-1 for Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. Mott's debuting turf runners are always respected, and at 4-1 the morning line suggests the stable has reason for confidence. Post 6 is the best draw in this field for a stalker.

Secondary Choices

Bridgesong (1) at 8-1 for Philip Bauer and Tyler Gaffalione draws the rail, which is a significant disadvantage in a 16-horse turf maiden but Gaffalione's track knowledge could mitigate it. War And Majesty (8) at 8-1 for Dale Romans and J.R. Velazquez — Romans rarely ships horses to Churchill Downs without a plan, and Velazquez adds class. Powell River (4) at 8-1 for Katerina Vassilieva and Rajiv Maragh warrants inclusion in larger exotics.

Clark's Corner (2) at 12-1 for Ian Wilkes and Luis Saez, and Timayyyy (13) at 8-1 for Anna Navarrete and Edgar Morales round out the secondary tier. Cash Bonus (9) at 15-1 for Cherie Devaux and B.J. Hernandez Jr. — Devaux having two runners in this spot is interesting; the second horse at a longer price could be the stable's preferred runner.

Longshots

Flick (5) at 10-1 for Michael Tomlinson and Axel Concepcion, Culture War (7) at 20-1 for Robert Medina and Cristian Torres, Drop Shot (14) at 20-1 for George Arnold II and Axel Concepcion, Wembley Avenue (16) at 15-1 for Paulo Lobo and Luan Machado, Grande Sorpreso (3) at 30-1 for Ian Wilkes and J.J. Castellano (note: Castellano on a 30-1 morning liner deserves at least a lottery ticket), Apollo's Glory (15) at 30-1 for Ethan West and Jaime Torres, and Hill Country (12) at 50-1 for J. Keith Desormeaux and J. Graham are the deep longshots. Grande Sorpreso (3) at 30-1 with J.J. Castellano gets the nod as the most interesting bomb in the field given the jockey upgrade.

Betting Strategy

With 16 horses and three serious contenders clustered between 3-1 and 4-1, this race is a prime trifecta/superfecta target. Box Prepped (10), Royal Guard (11), and Executive (6) in the trifecta as the primary structure and use Bridgesong (1), War And Majesty (8), and Clark's Corner (2) as fourth-place bombs in the superfecta. Avoid straight win betting at these prices in a 16-horse turf maiden.

Selections

Win: Prepped (10) Place: Executive (6) Show: Royal Guard (11)

RACE 6 — Post (3:12) — 1430f | D | AO | OClm 125000n1x | BOF | Purse $127,000

Fifteen fillies and mares go 6.5 furlongs on the main track in an optional claiming event for non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming, or starter. This is a large field sprint with legitimate pace pressure.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

Carmel Coast (6) at 3-1 for D. Whitworth Beckman and Tyler Gaffalione figures as a prime pace-setter or pace-presser. Paige Turner (5) at 4-1 for Cherie Devaux and Jose Ortiz is another forward type. French Blue (12) at 4-1 for Bob Baffert and Flavien Prat could press the pace or stalk. With multiple forwardly placed horses in a 15-runner sprint, the pace should be genuinely contested, potentially setting up a wide closer. Steer Clear (9) at 10-1 for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. could be the beneficiary of a pace meltdown.

Key Contenders

Carmel Coast (6) at 3-1 for Beckman and Gaffalione is the clear morning line choice and likely shortens at post time. Gaffalione knows how to dictate terms in a sprint from a favorable post, and Carmel Coast (6) at Post 6 gives the pair a perfect launch point. Beckman is a trainer who tightens horses for sprint assignments well.

French Blue (12) at 4-1 for Bob Baffert and Flavien Prat. Baffert's shorter-distance fillies are notoriously well-prepared for sprint conditions, and Prat has exceptional sprint tactics. The outside draw at Post 12 is not ideal in a 15-horse sprint but Baffert and Prat have found ways to overcome wider draws with early foot.

Paige Turner (5) at 4-1 for Devaux and Ortiz is another serious contender. Devaux's sprint fillies have been productive at this meet and Jose Ortiz excels in the sprint game.

Secondary Choices

Where Luck Lives (1) at 6-1 for Brian Lynch and Joel Rosario. Lynch is a sharp trainer and the inside post in a sprint at Churchill Downs is not always the disadvantage it appears — a fast-starting filly can save considerable ground from Post 1. Rosario is a Hall of Fame-caliber rider.

Nimah (3) at 8-1 for Bob Baffert and Juan J. Hernandez gives Baffert two runners in this spot. At 8-1, Nimah (3) could be Baffert's overlooked runner if French Blue (12) attracts the attention.

Steer Clear (9) at 10-1 for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. is the most interesting secondary play. Pletcher rarely ships a horse to Churchill Downs on Oaks Day without believing the animal can win, and Ortiz Jr. closing from behind in a pace meltdown is a dangerous combination.

Longshots

Essential Coffee (8) at 20-1 for Steve Asmussen and Florent Geroux, Our Two Girls (11) at 20-1 for Ken McPeek and Luis Saez, Camila Catalina (2) at 20-1 for R.B. Hess Jr. and Julien Leparoux, Blue Flame Six (13) at 20-1 for Ethan West and Alex Achard, Getting Closer (10) at 30-1 for Jack Sisterson and Adam Beschizza, Color Comin' In (4) at 30-1 for Norm Casse and Cristian Torres, Heaven's Bolt (14) at 30-1 for Richard Baltas and J.R. Velazquez (Velazquez on a 30-1 shot in a graded-quality field merits a lottery ticket), Don't Do It Lucy (15) at 30-1 for Jose Francisco D'Angelo and Luis Saez, and Kayla's Komet (7) at 50-1 for William Bret Calhoun and Axel Concepcion round out the field. Heaven's Bolt (14) with Velazquez is the best longshot play.

Betting Strategy

Key Carmel Coast (6) on top in exactas over French Blue (12), Paige Turner (5), Where Luck Lives (1), and Steer Clear (9). Trifecta plays should include all five of those in rotating configurations. The pace scenario makes this a volatile race where the closers — particularly Steer Clear (9) — could sneak up at a big price. A small win bet on Steer Clear (9) at 10-1 or better offers genuine value.

Selections

Win: Carmel Coast (6) Place: French Blue (12) Show: Steer Clear (9)

RACE 7 — Post (3:48) — 1210f | T | G2 | UnbdlSdn-G2 | BUM | Purse $500,000

The Grade II Unbridled Sidney goes at six furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares three and up. Nine runners. This is one of the best races on the undercard.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

Shisospicy (6) at 2-1 for Jose Francisco D'Angelo and Irad Ortiz Jr. figures to be forwardly placed and control the pace in what looks like a speed-favoring scenario. Queen Maxima (5) at 4-1 for Jeff Mullins and Juan J. Hernandez is another speed type. Shoot It True (9) at 6-1 for Wesley Ward and Joel Rosario — Ward's turf sprinters are consistently well-prepared and Ward horses at Churchill Downs in turf sprints are always live. Moon Spun (8) at 4-1 for Brian Lynch and J.J. Castellano is a closer who could benefit from pace pressure set by the speed horses.

Key Contenders

Shisospicy (6) at 2-1 is the class of the field based on the morning line and the connections. Irad Ortiz Jr. in a turf sprint is about as good as it gets in American racing, and D'Angelo has been one of the more surprising training success stories in recent seasons. Expect Shisospicy (6) to be installed as even money or shorter by post time.

Moon Spun (8) at 4-1 for Brian Lynch and J.J. Castellano. Lynch is a trainer who excels at placing mares in prestigious spots, and Castellano has a Hall of Fame touch in turf sprints. If Shisospicy (6) gets into a speed duel with Queen Maxima (5), Moon Spun (8) is the horse to beat them.

Queen Maxima (5) at 4-1 for Jeff Mullins and Juan J. Hernandez. Mullins ships Grade II-caliber horses to Churchill Downs knowing what he has, and Queen Maxima (5) has the tactical versatility to sit just off the pace or lead.

Secondary Choices

Haulin Ice (7) at 6-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Francisco Arrieta is worth including. Joseph is an elite trainer who has become one of the most successful conditioners in the country, and Haulin Ice (7) fits the profile of a Joseph horse that runs big in a spot like this. Shoot It True (9) at 6-1 for Wesley Ward and Joel Rosario is a legitimate Grade II threat — Ward's turf sprinters rarely run poorly at Churchill Downs.

Longshots

Time To Dazzle (3) at 15-1 for Mark Casse and Jose Ortiz — the Ortiz-Casse combination produces winners in spots like this more often than the odds suggest. Buttercream Babe (2) at 15-1 for George Arnold II and J.R. Velazquez — Hall of Fame jockey Velazquez can find a rail trip from Post 2 that sets this one up nicely. Creed's Gold (4) at 20-1 for Mark Casse and Flavien Prat and Mae Town (1) at 20-1 for Brian Lynch and Florent Geroux are deeper shots. Creed's Gold (4) with Prat at 20-1 is a lottery play with a live pilot.

Betting Strategy

In a nine-horse Grade II turf sprint, the morning line favorite Shisospicy (6) at 2-1 is likely to shorten further. The best approach is to beat Shisospicy (6) rather than support it. Key Moon Spun (8) over Shisospicy (6) and Queen Maxima (5) in the exacta, and include Haulin Ice (7) and Shoot It True (9) in the trifecta. A Moon Spun (8) exacta key with Shisospicy (6) offers a return worth targeting.

Selections

Win: Shisospicy (6) Place: Moon Spun (8) Show: Queen Maxima (5)

RACE 8 — Post (4:30) — 1540f | D | G2 | 8Belles-G2 | BOF | Purse $700,000

The Grade II Eight Belles goes at seven furlongs on the main track for three-year-old fillies. Nine runners in a prestigious prep event with significant implications for the filly division heading into the Triple Crown season.

Race 8

Pace Analysis

On Time Girl (9) at 2-1 for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. could stalk or press depending on who tries to go to the front. River Wind (3) at 4-1 for Norm Casse and Tyler Gaffalione is likely to be positioned near the pace. French Friction (2) at 6-1 for Mark Casse and Cristian Torres could be another early runner. The pace in a seven-furlong Grade II sprint should be genuinely honest, which sets up perfectly for On Time Girl (9) if she is as good as her odds suggest.

Key Contenders

On Time Girl (9) at 2-1 for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. is the clear favorite and deserves the price. Cox has been dominant with three-year-old fillies in sprint-route combinations, and On Time Girl (9) profiles as a horse with the tactical speed to be wherever Ortiz Jr. wants her to be. The outside post at 9 is not a concern at seven furlongs with a gate horse of this caliber.

Goodall (8) at 3-1 for Steve Asmussen and Flavien Prat is the most dangerous horse to the favorite. Asmussen's fillies on the sprint-route at Churchill Downs are historically well-prepared for Grade II assignments, and Prat winning on the Asmussen barn's best horses is a familiar story. Goodall (8) has the profile of a filly that runs her race regardless of pace scenario.

River Wind (3) at 4-1 for Norm Casse and Tyler Gaffalione. Casse has been prolific at this meet and Gaffalione provides elite guidance. At 4-1, this is a legitimate win candidate.

Secondary Choices

Luv Your Neighbor (7) at 6-1 for Michael Stidham and Luis Saez. Stidham is precise in placement and this filly's form suggests she can compete at this level. French Friction (2) at 6-1 for Mark Casse and Cristian Torres — Casse's three-year-old fillies have been well-represented throughout the season.

Sippin Pretty (6) at 8-1 for Ian Wilkes and B.J. Hernandez Jr. is a secondary play worth including. Wilkes is a Kentucky-based conditioner who understands Churchill Downs conditions better than most.

Longshots

Paradise (4) at 15-1 for Brad Cox and J.R. Velazquez — Cox running a second horse at 15-1 alongside On Time Girl (9) is not unusual; include Paradise (4) in superfecta spreads. Solemn Vow (5) at 20-1 for Albert Stall Jr. and Jose Ortiz — Stall has been active this Oaks week and the presence of Jose Ortiz is always a consideration regardless of morning line odds. Front Runnin (1) at 50-1 for Chasey Deville Pomier and Edgar Morales is a throw-out.

Betting Strategy

On Time Girl (9) at 2-1 is likely the single most underlaid favorite on the card. The better play is to include it as the top of a trifecta key structure: On Time Girl (9) over Goodall (8) and River Wind (3) over all, collecting from a wide spread. A small win bet on Goodall (8) at 3-1 or better to beat the chalk is the most interesting value play in this race. Luv Your Neighbor (7) at 6-1 is the best value in exacta coverage under On Time Girl (9).

Selections

Win: On Time Girl (9) Place: Goodall (8) Show: River Wind (3)

RACE 9 — Post (5:12) — 1870f | D | G2 | Alysheba-G2 | CUN | Purse $750,000

The Grade II Alysheba goes at 9.5 furlongs on the main track for older males. Nine runners in one of the most hotly contested non-Triple Crown stakes on the Churchill Downs spring calendar. Colts and geldings only, four and up.

Race 9

Pace Analysis

Baeza (2) at 2-1 for Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado is expected to stalk off the pace. Tappan Street (4) at 4-1 for Brad Cox and Flavien Prat is another tactical runner. Skippylongstocking (7) at 4-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Tyler Gaffalione could press the pace or lead. Grande (3) at 8-1 for Todd Pletcher and J.R. Velazquez is a closer. The pace should be honest at 9.5 furlongs, with multiple horses possessing the tactical speed to be near the front. This sets up for a strong closer — and Baeza (2) with Mott's meticulous preparation is ideally profiled to stalk and pounce.

Key Contenders

Baeza (2) at 2-1 for Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. Mott is arguably the best trainer in the country at preparing route horses for Grade II and Grade I assignments, and Baeza (2) arriving here at 2-1 suggests the horse has earned the favorite's mantle through strong recent form. Alvarado is a consistent performer in big spots and has benefited from Mott's patient development process many times.

Skippylongstocking (7) at 4-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Tyler Gaffalione. Joseph has emerged as one of the nation's premier trainers, and Skippylongstocking (7) from the 7-post gives Gaffalione a manageable trip into the first turn. This horse's form suggests it can press the pace and last at 9.5 furlongs.

Tappan Street (4) at 4-1 for Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. Cox and Prat in a Grade II route is a combination that commands respect at every level of the game. Post 4 is a prime draw, and if the pace scenarios plays out as projected, Tappan Street (4) will be ideally placed to make a run in the stretch.

Secondary Choices

Disruptor (9) at 6-1 for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. — Pletcher has two horses in this race and Disruptor (9) with Ortiz Jr. is the more interesting wager at the longer morning line. Ortiz Jr. has been extremely active in Grade II stakes at this meet. Nu What's New (6) at 8-1 for James DiVito and Luis Saez. DiVito is a careful conditioner and Saez provides elite riding.

Grande (3) at 8-1 for Pletcher and Velazquez — Pletcher having two horses in this race with Velazquez and Ortiz Jr. means both deserve consideration. Grande (3) at 8-1 from Post 3 could be the better trip.

Longshots

Corporate Power (8) at 10-1 for Steve Asmussen and Jose Ortiz. Asmussen is always competitive in Grade II stakes at Churchill Downs and Jose Ortiz adds significant quality to a 10-1 shot that could easily beat the field at that price. East Avenue (5) at 12-1 for Brendan Walsh and Cristian Torres — Walsh is active this week and East Avenue (5) at 12-1 could be a sneaky value play. Navajo Warrior (1) at 20-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Francisco Arrieta — Joseph having two runners at very different prices is interesting; Navajo Warrior (1) is the lesser of the two on the morning line but worth including in superfecta spreads.

Betting Strategy

Baeza (2) at 2-1 will likely be 6-5 or lower by post time. The strategy is to beat Baeza (2) or use it in exotics at minimal cost. Key Skippylongstocking (7) over Baeza (2) and Tappan Street (4) in the exacta reverse. The trifecta plays are Skippylongstocking (7) or Tappan Street (4) on top over Baeza (2) over Disruptor (9) and Corporate Power (8). A small win bet on Corporate Power (8) at 10-1 with Jose Ortiz represents the best value play in the race.

Selections

Win: Baeza (2) Place: Tappan Street (4) Show: Skippylongstocking (7)

RACE 10 — Post (6:01) — 1980f | T | G3 | Modesty-G3 | CUM | Purse $500,000

The Grade III Modesty Handicap goes at 10 furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares three and up. Ten runners. This is an afternoon highlight on the turf course.

Race 10

Pace Analysis

Gezora (6) at 1-1 for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat is the overwhelming favorite and will likely be installed at shorter odds by post time. Whiskey Decision (3) at 4-1 for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr. gives the stable two legitimate runners. The pace in a 10-furlong turf handicap is typically relaxed early, which suits Brown's patient turf fillies perfectly. Proctor Street (2) at 6-1 for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione could be the horse to challenge the Brown stable runners from a stalking position.

Key Contenders

Gezora (6) at 1-1 for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. Brown is the most dominant trainer in American turf racing and Flavien Prat on a Chad Brown turf filly at 1-1 in a Grade III at 10 furlongs is about as close to a certainty as one finds in horse racing. Gezora (6) will be heavily bet from first ticket through post time, and the win price could be unattractive. However, the place and show prices may still hold some value, and using Gezora (6) as the top of exotics is sound wagering strategy.

Whiskey Decision (3) at 4-1 for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr. Having two top Chad Brown turf fillies in the same race at 1-1 and 4-1 means the trainer is confident in both. Whiskey Decision (3) is the more interesting wager at the longer price.

Secondary Choices

Proctor Street (2) at 6-1 for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione is the most interesting challenger to the Brown stable. Walsh has been a consistent producer of turf route winners at Churchill Downs, and Gaffalione has a feel for the turf course that rivals anyone in the jockey colony.

Kathynmarissa (5) at 8-1 for Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz. Brown having three runners in a 10-horse Grade III is unusual and worth noting — Kathynmarissa (5) at 8-1 with Jose Ortiz could be the stable's overlooked runner.

Longshots

Pin Up Betty (8) at 10-1 for Michael Maker and Juan J. Hernandez. Maker is a premier turf trainer and Pin Up Betty (8) at 10-1 is a legitimate dark horse in a race dominated by the Brown stable. Adrasteia (9) at 30-1 for Fergus Bogle and Kazushi Kimura, Ramsey Pond (1) at 30-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Luis Saez, Dona Clota (7) at 20-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and J.R. Velazquez (Joseph's second runner with a Hall of Famer), Stylish Sue (4) at 20-1 for Joe Sharp and Jaime Torres, and Queens Command (10) at 50-1 for Joe Sharp and Dylan Davis are remote longshots.

Betting Strategy

With Gezora (6) likely to go off near even money or shorter, the value is entirely in exotics. Key Gezora (6) with Whiskey Decision (3) and Proctor Street (2) in the exacta. Kathynmarissa (5) at 8-1 is an intriguing third leg in trifectas. A trifecta box of Gezora (6), Whiskey Decision (3), and Proctor Street (2) is the primary play. Pin Up Betty (8) at 10-1 is the best price to include as a fourth option in superfectas.

Selections

Win: Gezora (6) Place: Whiskey Decision (3) Show: Proctor Street (2)

RACE 11 — Post (6:56) — 1870f | D | G1 | LaTroien-G1 | CUM | Purse $1,000,000

The Grade I La Troienne Stakes goes at 9.5 furlongs on the main track for fillies and mares three and up. Eleven runners compete for one million dollars in the most prestigious race on the undercard.

Race 11

Pace Analysis

Shred The Gnar (5) at 3-1 for Brian Lynch and Luis Saez figures as either a pace-presser or a stalker. Bless The Broken (1) at 4-1 for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. is another tactical type who could be near the pace. Chasten (7) at 6-1 for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux provides Cox with two legitimate runners. The pace in a 9.5-furlong Grade I for fillies and mares should be moderate to honest, setting up the possibility that the horse with the best late kick can sweep the field.

Key Contenders

Shred The Gnar (5) at 3-1 for Brian Lynch and Luis Saez is the morning line choice. Lynch has been placing this filly carefully throughout the season and the 3-1 morning line reflects a horse that has earned the favorite's mantle through legitimate form. Saez has a strong record in Grade I routes on the Churchill Downs main track, and his patient style suits a 9.5-furlong assignment.

Bless The Broken (1) at 4-1 for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. Cox with two runners in a Grade I — Bless The Broken (1) and Chasten (7) — is a powerful stable statement. Bless The Broken (1) from Post 1 at 9.5 furlongs has the advantage of a clean trip along the rail and Ortiz Jr. is a master at finding the rail save.

Fully Subscribed (9) at 4-1 for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. Brown-Prat in a Grade I route for fillies and mares is a combination that has won at the highest levels repeatedly. Fully Subscribed (9) from Post 9 at 9.5 furlongs will require Prat to get this filly into a manageable trip, but Brown horses rarely fail through lack of preparation.

Secondary Choices

Chasten (7) at 6-1 for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux is the secondary consideration from the Cox stable. Geroux is a capable rider in big spots and Chasten (7) at 6-1 offers good value if Cox's stable is firing at this level.

Scalable (2) at 8-1 for Todd Pletcher and J.R. Velazquez. Pletcher's Grade I fillies with Velazquez have a strong historical record at Churchill Downs, and Scalable (2) from Post 2 has a prime inside draw. Dry Powder (8) at 12-1 for Chad Summers and Dylan Davis is an interesting longshot — Summers has occasionally produced big-priced upsets at Churchill Downs.

Longshots

Snowyte (10) at 10-1 for Danny Gargan and Joel Rosario. Rosario is a Hall of Fame rider and Snowyte (10) at 10-1 is worth a small win bet. Drexel Hill (11) at 15-1 for D. Whitworth Beckman and Ben Curtis — Curtis is a capable jockey and Drexel Hill (11) from the outside post could find a comfortable wide trip. Miss Justify (4) at 15-1 for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione — Walsh and Gaffalione in a Grade I always commands a second look regardless of the morning line odds. Nerazurri (3) at 20-1 for Mark Casse and Cristian Torres is a deeper shot, and Take Charge Omaha (6) at 30-1 for Matthew Sims and Mario Gutierrez is a throw-out.

Betting Strategy

This Grade I presents a genuine multi-horse situation with four horses legitimately capable of winning. Key Shred The Gnar (5) and Bless The Broken (1) in exactas over Fully Subscribed (9) and Chasten (7). Reverse all four in trifecta configurations. Miss Justify (4) at 15-1 with Gaffalione is the best longshot value to include as a fourth slot in superfectas. The Grade I purse and the full field makes this an excellent trifecta race.

Selections

Win: Shred The Gnar (5) Place: Bless The Broken (1) Show: Fully Subscribed (9)

RACE 12 — Post (7:40) — 1870f | T | G2 | Edgewood-G2 | BOF | Purse $600,000

The Grade II Edgewood Stakes goes at 9.5 furlongs on the turf for three-year-old fillies. Fourteen runners in what is one of the most competitive grass stakes on the Oaks Day program.

Race 12

Pace Analysis

Imaginationthelady (3) at 4-1 for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione is likely to be tactically placed. Just Aloof (5) at 8-1 for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat could stalk the pace. Time To Dream (11) at 5-1 for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. is a closer. The pace in a 14-horse Grade II turf route should be moderate early, compressing in the final three furlongs as horses look for racing room. A horse with mid-pack positioning and clear running in the stretch will have a significant advantage.

Key Contenders

Imaginationthelady (3) at 4-1 for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione is the morning line choice. Walsh has been exceptional with turf fillies in Grade II assignments, and Gaffalione's intelligence on the Churchill Downs turf course is second to none. The Post 3 draw is ideal for a stalking type at 9.5 furlongs on the turf.

Time To Dream (11) at 5-1 for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. Pletcher's turf fillies in Grade II events at Churchill Downs have one of the most impressive records in the sport. Time To Dream (11) from Post 11 will require Ortiz Jr. to find a path through the field, but Ortiz Jr. is masterful in large turf fields.

Dandona (9) at 6-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Jose Ortiz. Joseph's emergence as a premier trainer of turf three-year-old fillies has been one of the stories of the season, and Dandona (9) at 6-1 with Jose Ortiz from Post 9 is a compelling mid-post draw in a 14-horse turf route.

Secondary Choices

Storm's Wake (1) at 6-1 for Brian Lynch and Joel Rosario. The rail draw at 9.5 furlongs on turf is a mixed proposition for a Lynch filly, but Rosario is skilled at getting rail horses clear of traffic in the first quarter-mile. Just Aloof (5) at 8-1 for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat — a Brown-Prat turf filly at any price demands respect, and Just Aloof (5) at 8-1 represents meaningful value if the pace sets up for a closer.

Lion Lake (8) at 8-1 for Brendan Walsh and J.R. Velazquez — Walsh with two runners at 4-1 and 8-1 means he is serious about this race. Lion Lake (8) with Velazquez from Post 8 has an ideal draw for a mid-pack stalker on the turf.

Longshots

Connect The Stars (2) at 30-1 for Mark Casse and J.J. Castellano — Castellano at 30-1 is worth noting. Lorelei Lee (4) at 15-1 for Michael Maker and Fernando De La Cruz, Lovely Grey (7) at 15-1 for Kelsey Danner and Dylan Davis, Tam Tam (6) at 15-1 for Philip Bauer and Junior Alvarado, Indigo Woods (13) at 15-1 for Brendan Walsh and Axel Concepcion (Walsh with three runners, the third at 15-1 is notable), To A Flame (14) at 20-1 for George Arnold II and Edgar Morales, Bohemian (10) at 20-1 for Joe Sharp and B.J. Hernandez Jr., and Taken By The Wind (12) at 30-1 for Ken McPeek and Luis Saez are the outer-tier longshots. Connect The Stars (2) at 30-1 with Castellano is the best lottery play in the field.

Betting Strategy

In a 14-horse Grade II turf route, the trifecta and superfecta are the recommended wagering structures. Key Imaginationthelady (3) and Time To Dream (11) in exactas over Dandona (9), Lion Lake (8), and Just Aloof (5). Use Storm's Wake (1) and Lion Lake (8) as bombs in the fourth slot of superfectas. A small win play on Dandona (9) at 6-1 or Lion Lake (8) at 8-1 offers the best value in the race outside of the top two morning line choices.

Selections

Win: Imaginationthelady (3) Place: Time To Dream (11) Show: Dandona (9)

RACE 13 — Post (8:40) — 1980f | D | G1 | KyOaks-G1 | BOF | Purse $1,500,000

The 152nd Running of the Grade I Kentucky Oaks. Ten furlongs on the main track for three-year-old fillies under the lights for the first time in race history. Seventeen runners. The race of the evening.

Race 13

Pace Analysis

The Kentucky Oaks pace is among the most analyzed in American racing each year. Explora (1) at 6-1 for Bob Baffert and Flavien Prat from the rail could be forwardly placed. Zany (2) at 4-1 for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. is a stalker type. Counting Stars (4) at 8-1 for Mark Casse and Francisco Arrieta could be a pace factor from an inside post. The pace in a 17-horse Oaks on a fast track at 10 furlongs is typically honest through the opening six furlongs, with the race truly beginning at the top of the stretch. Horses that stalk through the first mile without expending excessive energy will have a significant advantage. The primetime start and the full field under the lights adds an element of unpredictability, but the best fillies tend to rise above the chaos.

Prom Queen (10) at 8-1 for Brad Cox and J.J. Castellano has been highlighted by handicappers as a horse whose running style — patient early, powerful late — is perfectly suited to the 10-furlong Oaks distance.

Key Contenders

Zany (2) at 4-1 for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. is the morning line favorite and commands the most attention. Pletcher's record in the Kentucky Oaks is exceptional, and having Ortiz Jr. in the irons from Post 2 represents one of the most favorable combinations in the race. Zany (2) from an inside post gives Ortiz Jr. every opportunity to find a rail trip and save ground through the first mile before making a run in the lane.

Meaning (5) at 5-1 for Michael McCarthy and Juan J. Hernandez. McCarthy is one of the best conditioners of three-year-old fillies in the country, and Meaning (5) from Post 5 gives Hernandez a clean shot at a mid-pack stalking trip. The 5-1 morning line on a McCarthy filly in the Kentucky Oaks demands attention.

Explora (1) at 6-1 for Bob Baffert and Flavien Prat. Baffert's record in filly classics is historically strong, and Explora (1) from the rail at 10 furlongs with Prat is a dangerous combination. Prat has won the Oaks from the inside and knows how to get a railrunner clear of traffic in the early stages of the race. Explora (1) at 6-1 is among the most interesting win bets on the card.

Percy's Bar (11) at 6-1 for Ben Colebrook and Luan Machado. Colebrook has been one of the surprise trainers of the Oaks division this season and Percy's Bar (11) at 6-1 from Post 11 gives Machado a workable trip from a mid-outside draw. Handicappers have been divided on this filly, but the price is right for a legitimate Kentucky Oaks contender.

Secondary Choices

Prom Queen (10) at 8-1 for Brad Cox and J.J. Castellano. Multiple handicappers have identified Prom Queen (10) as the single best value play in the Kentucky Oaks. Cox is an exceptional developer of classic fillies, and Castellano's ability to produce big race performances at Churchill Downs is well-established. From Post 10, Castellano has a prime position to find a wide, clear trip through the field while saving energy through the first mile. At 8-1, Prom Queen (10) represents the most compelling win value in the race.

Counting Stars (4) at 8-1 for Mark Casse and Francisco Arrieta. Casse has two runners in the Oaks, but Counting Stars (4) from an inside post at 8-1 is the more interesting wager. Casse's fillies in classic events have proven to be formidable.

Always A Runner (9) at 10-1 for Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz. Brown's route fillies at this distance on the main track are legitimate Grade I contenders, and Jose Ortiz at 10-1 in the Oaks is significant value by any measure. Brown has won the Kentucky Oaks before, and Always A Runner (9) has the profile of a horse that could sneak up at a double-digit price.

Longshots

Bella Ballerina (12) at 12-1 for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione — Walsh and Gaffalione in the Kentucky Oaks with a filly at 12-1 is worth a look given Walsh's strong form at this meet. Bottle Of Rouge (8) at 15-1 for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith — Baffert having two runners in the Oaks alongside Explora (1) with Smith in the irons on Bottle Of Rouge (8) adds intrigue. Smith is a Hall of Fame rider who produces his best in the biggest spots. SCALABLE… (note: SCALABLE is in Race 11 — in the Oaks, the comparable play is Nycon (16) at 50-1 for D. Whitworth Beckman and Jaime Torres and Brooklyn Blonde (14) at 30-1 for Michael McCarthy and Kazushi Kimura). Search Party (3) at 30-1 for Mark Casse and Cristian Torres is Casse's second Oaks runner at a remote price. My Miss Mo (6) at 20-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. and Micah J. Husbands, Dazzling Dame (7) at 30-1 for Brittany Russell and Luis Saez, Pashmina (13) at 30-1 for Rob Atras and R.A. Vazquez, Lovely Grey (15) at 30-1

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