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Lone Star Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the May 3, 2026 card

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Lone Star Park Race Day Overview — Sunday, May 3, 2026

The day after the 152nd Kentucky Derby brings racing back to Grand Prairie, Texas, as Lone Star Park presents a nine-race Sunday afternoon card with first post at 2:35 PM CT. The card features a mix of maiden special weights, allowance conditions, claimers, and optional claimers spread across both the main track and the turf course. Purses range from $16,000 in the optional claiming sprint on turf in Race 6 to $40,500 in the allowance feature for fillies and mares in Race 4. The overall field quality is consistent with Lone Star's mid-meet conditions, with several competitive races that offer solid exotic wagering opportunities.

Trainer Steven Asmussen has multiple entrants spread across the card, which is not unusual given his dominant presence at Lone Star Park. Dick Cappellucci saddles runners in Races 2, 7, and 9, while Eduardo Cruz and J.R. Caldwell also have multiple entries across the afternoon. The jockey colony is led by the usual Lone Star regulars, with A.J. Juarez Jr., Floyd Wethey Jr., Rene Diaz, and Erik Asmussen all picking up multiple mounts.

There are no reported scratches or significant equipment changes impacting the official card as posted. Bettors should check the Lone Star Park official program and Equibase for any late scratch or jockey changes prior to wagering.

Weather and Track Conditions — Lone Star Park, May 3, 2026

Early May in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex is historically warm and occasionally unsettled, with temperatures typically in the upper 70s to mid-80s. The forecast for Sunday, May 3 calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures near 82 degrees Fahrenheit at post time, with southwest winds around 10-15 mph. No significant rainfall is expected during the racing program, which bodes well for both the main track and the turf course remaining in good condition.

The main track at Lone Star is a one-mile oval constructed of a conventional dirt surface. Without recent precipitation, the track is expected to be listed as fast, which typically favors horses with early speed in routes and closers who can accelerate on a firm, consistent surface in sprints. The turf course at Lone Star is a one-mile oval as well, and with dry conditions leading into the weekend, the going on the grass should be firm to good. Races 3, 6, and 9 are scheduled on the turf.

Bettors should be aware that in the event of any late-day shower activity, the turf races could be moved to the main track, which would significantly alter the complexion of those fields.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Lone Star Park's main dirt track has historically shown a mild speed bias when the surface is fast and the weather is dry. Horses that secure early position in the first turn tend to have an advantage, particularly in routes, where the run from the gate to the first bend is short enough to make the inside posts relevant. In sprint races at 1,210 feet and 1,320 feet, early position is at a premium, and horses exiting from posts one through four have shown a statistical edge.

In routes on the main track, particularly at 1,430 feet and 1,760 feet, outside posts are not necessarily a disadvantage for horses with tactical speed or strong closers, but the rail can become a factor late in the meet as the inside portion of the track compacts. In today's conditions, with a dry, fast surface anticipated, middle posts in route races tend to produce the best results statistically at this venue.

On the turf course, Lone Star's grass oval historically favors horses that can stalk from second or third position, as the turf tends to play honest under firm conditions. Inside posts on the turf can be advantageous in longer routes, particularly at 1,870 feet, where horses breaking from posts one through four can secure rail position early. In the 1,100-foot turf sprint in Race 9, middle-to-outside posts have shown value as horses with quick early speed from favorable angles can find running room immediately.

Overall, for today's card: early speed should be respected across the board on the main track, and stalking trips from the inside will be advantageous on the turf in the route races.

RACE 1 — Post 2:35 — 1430f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $40,000

This opening race is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares going one turn at approximately 1,430 feet on the main track. The purse of $40,000 is standard for maiden company at Lone Star, and the field of seven offers a relatively manageable betting race. The distance of 1,430 feet — roughly seven furlongs — asks horses to show enough speed to contend while also carrying their run through the far turn to the wire.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario in Race 1 sets up as a contested affair. Closing Speaker (POST 1) and Somerville (POST 5) share the morning line co-favoritism at 2-1, suggesting a race where the two top choices are expected to be the primary contenders. With CLOSING SPEAKER on the inside breaking from post 1 under trainer William Bret Calhoun and jockey Jose L. Alvarez, there is every reason to expect an aggressive early effort to secure position on the rail. Somerville (POST 5) from trainer J.R. Caldwell and jockey Rene Diaz exits from a middle post and has the profile of a horse that could engage early or stalk. Sugarfreesugarbaby (POST 7), trained by Carl Ray O'Bannon and ridden by Thiago Canuto at 5-1, adds another potential pace factor from the outside post. With multiple speed horses likely to press early, there is the possibility of a hot pace setting up for a closer, which could bring Cuvee's Bellarose (POST 6) into play late.

Key Contenders

Closing Speaker (POST 1) draws the rail for trainer William Bret Calhoun, who is one of the more respected conditioners at Lone Star Park. Jockey Jose L. Alvarez aboard a 2-1 morning line favorite from the inside is a combination that demands attention in any maiden race. Calhoun has a strong record debuting horses in maiden special weight company and getting them to run their best first or second time out. The rail post at this distance is not a liability if the horse breaks cleanly, and Alvarez is experienced enough to find the right trip along the fence.

Somerville (POST 5) is the other co-favorite at 2-1 and benefits from a clean, middle post draw. Trainer J.R. Caldwell and jockey Rene Diaz are a reliable combination at this level. Somerville (POST 5) figures to have tactical options from post 5, able to either press the pace or sit just off the leader, which gives Diaz flexibility to ride according to the pace scenario as it develops. The even-money split with Closing Speaker (POST 1) suggests the market sees two legitimate top choices.

Secondary Choices

Sugarfreesugarbaby (POST 7) opens at 5-1 from the outside post and is trained by Carl Ray O'Bannon with Thiago Canuto up. Seven is not an ideal post at 1,430 feet in a seven-horse field, but if the horse has speed, Canuto can angle in quickly out of the gate. The 5-1 price represents fair value if this horse shows any early foot.

Cuvee's Bellarose (POST 6) at 6-1 is trained by Danny Pish, who has shown consistent success at Lone Star over his career. D.L. Parker in the irons at 6-1 represents mild overlay potential if the pace scenario heats up early and sets up for something to close from off the pace. Pish is sharp with first-time starters and lightly raced horses in maiden company, making this one worth watching.

Longshots

Hot Donna (POST 4) at 8-1 is trained by Francisco Bravo and ridden by I.V. Diego. The price is tempting, and Bravo has had runners that surprised at this level. However, without a clear advantage in pace or pedigree projection, Hot Donna (POST 4) is best used underneath in exotics.

Gab's Humor (POST 3) at 12-1 is trained by George Bryant and ridden by Lane J. Luzzi. The double-digit odds reflect modest expectations, but Luzzi is a capable veteran who can get a long price home on the right day. Worth including as a trifecta/superfecta filler.

Fund Lavender (POST 2) at 20-1 from trainer Raul Rangel and jockey Santos Rivera is the longest price in the field. Without significant supporting angles, this one is a throwout in most tickets.

Selections

Win: Closing Speaker (POST 1) Place: Somerville (POST 5) Show: Cuvee's Bellarose (POST 6)

Wagering strategy: Play Closing Speaker (POST 1) to win and key both Closing Speaker (POST 1) and Somerville (POST 5) in exactas with Sugarfreesugarbaby (POST 7) and Cuvee's Bellarose (POST 6) in trifectas. Given the competitive co-favorite situation, exacta boxes between Closing Speaker (POST 1) and Somerville (POST 5) are worth a modest play.

Race 2 is a maiden special weight sprint at 1,210 feet on the main track for three-year-olds and up. The six-furlong distance is a pure speed test, and the eight-horse field offers multiple betting opportunities. YO MO (POST 2) opens as the morning line favorite at 2-1.

Pace Analysis

Yo Mo (POST 2) at 2-1 from trainer Austin Gustafson and jockey Freddy Jose Manrrique figures to be on or near the early lead from post 2. Get Back Jo Jo (POST 6) at 3-1 from trainer Dick Cappellucci and jockey A.J. Juarez Jr. is the second choice and likely to apply early pressure from the outside half of the gate. Another Crossbow (POST 3) and Texas Hunk (POST 7) both open at 4-1, suggesting additional pace pressure. With multiple early-speed types in the field, a contested pace is likely, which could set up the race for a closer or a horse with more tactical speed to pounce at the top of the stretch.

Key Contenders

Yo Mo (POST 2) draws well from post 2 and exits from trainer Austin Gustafson, who has been active at Lone Star this meet. Jockey Freddy Jose Manrrique is familiar with the Gustafson barn's horses and knows how to use a favorable post to steal position early. As the morning line favorite, Yo Mo (POST 2) is the clear public choice, and the 2-1 price reflects a horse with genuine ability that figures to be in the thick of it throughout.

Get Back Jo Jo (POST 6) at 3-1 is the barn companion of Another Crossbow (POST 3) under trainer Dick Cappellucci, and Cappellucci is a proven handler at Lone Star. Having two horses in the same race gives the barn a tactical advantage, and Get Back Jo Jo (POST 6) with A.J. Juarez Jr. is the more likely winner of the pair based on the morning line assignment. Cappellucci-trained horses in maiden sprints at this track have shown the ability to improve second start, which is worth noting if this horse has a previous effort on record.

Secondary Choices

Another Crossbow (POST 3) at 4-1 is the stablemate of Get Back Jo Jo (POST 6) under Cappellucci, with Floyd Wethey Jr. riding. Post 3 is a very favorable draw at six furlongs on the Lone Star main track, and Wethey is a capable rider who can utilize the inside position effectively. If Another Crossbow (POST 3) shows the better form of the Cappellucci pair, this one could beat the morning line price.

Texas Hunk (POST 7) at 4-1 is trained by Allen Dupuy and ridden by D.L. Parker. Outside post in a sprint can be a disadvantage, but Parker is experienced enough to position this horse correctly on the first turn. Dupuy has had solid results at Lone Star, and Texas Hunk (POST 7) at 4-1 from a respected barn is worth including in exotic tickets.

Longshots

Secret Crown (POST 5) at 10-1 is trained by Jesse Sauceda and ridden by Mario Fuentes. An overlooked price in a competitive maiden sprint, Secret Crown (POST 5) could offer value in the trifecta if the pace collapses.

Toosexyformyshirt (POST 4) at 12-1 from trainer Eduardo Cruz and jockey Luis A. Huaman is a double-digit overlay that Cruz needs to show significant early speed from to factor. Cruz has runners that occasionally spring surprises, making this one worth a minor trifecta inclusion.

Hank Ridge (POST 1) at 15-1 from trainer Ronald Kotara and jockey Thiago Canuto gets the rail, which can be helpful in sprints if the horse breaks alertly. However, the 15-1 price reflects limited expectations, and this is a seat-filler in deep exotics at best.

No Regret (POST 8) at 20-1 from trainer Anthony John Mulheron and jockey D. Benavides is the longest shot in the field and figures to be outclassed here.

Selections

Win: Yo Mo (POST 2) Place: Get Back Jo Jo (POST 6) Show: Another Crossbow (POST 3)

Wagering strategy: Single Yo Mo (POST 2) on top in win wagers and key with Get Back Jo Jo (POST 6) and Another Crossbow (POST 3) in exactas. Given that Cappellucci saddles both Another Crossbow (POST 3) and Get Back Jo Jo (POST 6), a superfecta with these four horses mixed with Texas Hunk (POST 7) could offer solid value if the race plays out as expected.

Race 3 shifts to the turf course for a starter optional claiming route at approximately 1,870 feet. The condition is restricted to horses that have started for a claiming price of $60,000 or less. The field of eight is competitive, with multiple horses sharing 4-1 morning line odds and SHE’SSKYSTHELIMIT (POST 8) installed as the 3-1 favorite.

Pace Analysis

With She'sskysthelimit (POST 8) on the morning line as the top choice and multiple horses at 4-1, including Cafezinho (POST 2), Fine Finish (POST 3), and Ninth Island (POST 4), this is a wide-open grass route. Moonlight Gambler (POST 1) at 8-1 has the rail and could establish position early. Wild Express (POST 7) at 10-1 from trainer Terry Eoff and jockey Fernando Jara adds pace consideration from the outside. On turf at 1,870 feet, pace tends to be more controlled, with horses rationing their energy through the early stages and accelerating in the final quarter. Expect a patient pace early with the real race beginning in the final three-sixteenths.

Key Contenders

She'sskysthelimit (POST 8) at 3-1 is trained by Karen E. Jacks and ridden by Erik Asmussen. The outside post at this distance on the turf is not ideal, but Jacks has had success on the Lone Star grass, and Erik Asmussen riding for a barn that knows how to place a horse on turf is always dangerous. The morning line favoritism suggests this horse has the best recent form in the field.

Ninth Island (POST 4) at 4-1 is from the powerful Calhoun barn, trained by William Bret Calhoun and ridden by Jose L. Alvarez. Calhoun routinely has his horses tuned up properly for turf routes, and Alvarez has a strong record at Lone Star. Post 4 on the turf is a solid draw that allows the rider to find position without being squeezed early. Multiple horses from the Calhoun stable entered in this race — Fine Finish (POST 3) and Ninth Island (POST 4) — and the barn has tactical options.

Cafezinho (POST 2) at 4-1 is trained by Mindy Willis and ridden by S. Elliott. Post 2 on the turf is advantageous for a horse that can secure early position along the rail. Willis has shown a capability to have her horses ready for turf routes, and Cafezinho (POST 2) at 4-1 is priced correctly as a top contender.

Secondary Choices

Fine Finish (POST 3) at 4-1 is the stablemate of Ninth Island (POST 4) under trainer Calhoun, with Floyd Wethey Jr. up. Three horses from the Calhoun barn sharing similar odds creates an interesting dynamic. Fine Finish (POST 3) breaks from post 3 with favorable inside position. In route races on turf, the Calhoun barn often uses one horse to set the pace and another to close, making these stablemates strategically dangerous together.

Blood Orange (POST 5) at 5-1 is trained by Tina Rena Hurley and ridden by Isaiah Wiseman. A 5-1 price on the grass for a horse with the right connections could represent mild overlay value. Post 5 is a workable draw, and Wiseman is a capable turf rider when given a horse with ability.

Longshots

Moonlight Gambler (POST 1) at 8-1 from trainer Tristan Ashford and jockey I.V. Diego has the inside rail on the turf, which is a genuine positional advantage in a longer grass route. Diego is a solid rider who can exploit the rail if it remains friendly. Do not dismiss this one based on price alone.

Wild Express (POST 7) at 10-1 from trainer Terry Eoff and jockey Fernando Jara is an intriguing price from just outside the midfield. Jara is an experienced turf rider, and if this horse has shown grass form previously, 10-1 is a generous price.

Missingyoucrazy (POST 6) at 15-1 from trainer Mindy Willis and jockey A.J. Juarez Jr. is a stablemate of Cafezinho (POST 2). At 15-1, Missingyoucrazy (POST 6) is an unlikely winner but is worth a minor trifecta/superfecta inclusion given the trainer connection and Juarez's skill on the grass.

Selections

Win: She'sskysthelimit (POST 8) Place: Ninth Island (POST 4) Show: Cafezinho (POST 2)

Wagering strategy: Use She'sskysthelimit (POST 8) and Ninth Island (POST 4) on top in exactas with Cafezinho (POST 2), Fine Finish (POST 3), and Moonlight Gambler (POST 1) filling. The Calhoun two-horse entry situation makes the exacta particularly interesting — Alvarez and Wethey could both be riding for the barn's best interest, leaving the door open for She'sskysthelimit (POST 8) to benefit.

Race 4 is an allowance condition for horses that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter, going one turn at 1,320 feet on the main track. This is one of the stronger races on the card from a class standpoint, restricted to fillies and mares that have broken their maiden and are stepping up in class. TEXAS SPEED QUEEN (POST 4) and CLAIRE’S CURLIN (POST 7) share the morning line favoritism at 2-1.

Pace Analysis

Texas Speed Queen (POST 4) from J.R. Caldwell and jockey Rene Diaz at 2-1 is likely to engage early from the middle post. Cowgirl Dream (POST 2) from Eduardo Cruz and jockey I.V. Diego at 5-1 figures to be forwardly placed from a good post. Witts Opulent Lady (POST 5) at 6-1 from trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez adds another potential pace presence. With multiple speed-likely horses in the field, the pace could be honest to brisk, which may benefit the class horse with the most tactical versatility. Claire's Curlin (POST 7) from Danny Pish and jockey Weston Hamilton could sit just off the early pace from the outside post and pounce in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Texas Speed Queen (POST 4) at 2-1 is the public's choice and trained by J.R. Caldwell, a conditioner with a solid record at Lone Star in allowance company. Rene Diaz is the meet's go-to rider for Caldwell, and post 4 in a one-turn mile is about as good as it gets for a front-runner or pressuring type. Texas Speed Queen (POST 4) figures to control or contest the early pace and use class to hold on.

Claire's Curlin (POST 7) at 2-1 is from the Danny Pish stable, who is one of the most respected trainers at Lone Star Park. The name suggests Curlin bloodlines, which historically translate well at route distances and carry a natural affinity for the dirt. Weston Hamilton picks up this mount, and post 7 in a seven-horse field at 1,320 feet is manageable if the horse has tactical speed. Pish having a co-favorite here is a strong endorsement.

Secondary Choices

Cowgirl Dream (POST 2) at 5-1 from Eduardo Cruz and I.V. Diego draws a fantastic post for a sprint-route. Post 2 at one turn essentially gives a horse a chance to secure early position without burning excess energy. Cruz has been competitive at this level, and Cowgirl Dream (POST 2) at 5-1 represents the best price-to-ability ratio in the top half of the field.

Witts Opulent Lady (POST 5) at 6-1 from trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez is a horse that could benefit from a contested pace scenario. Gourneau has occasional victories at this level, and if Witts Opulent Lady (POST 5) is dropping into easier company from a tougher previous condition, the 6-1 could be an overlay.

Longshots

Avaling (POST 3) at 8-1 from trainer Jerenesto Torrez and jockey A.J. Juarez Jr. has the experienced Juarez aboard. Juarez is capable of getting a horse home at any price, and Avaling (POST 3) at 8-1 in a wide-open allowance race is worth a trifecta inclusion.

For The Home Front (POST 1) at 12-1 from trainer Eduardo Cruz and jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. breaks from the rail. Cruz enters two horses — For The Home Front (POST 1) and Cowgirl Dream (POST 2) — in this race, which gives the barn multiple tactical options. For The Home Front (POST 1) from the rail at 12-1 could be a sneaky value play in deeper exotics.

Scattered Mischief (POST 6) at 12-1 from trainer Domingo Chacaltana and jockey Rodolfo De La Cruz Guerra is a longer price that lacks significant supporting angles. Best used as a trifecta filler only.

Selections

Win: Claire's Curlin (POST 7) Place: Texas Speed Queen (POST 4) Show: Cowgirl Dream (POST 2)

Wagering strategy: Exacta box Claire's Curlin (POST 7) and Texas Speed Queen (POST 4) as the primary wager. Add Cowgirl Dream (POST 2) in trifectas underneath the top two. If you believe the pace will be hot, consider using Avaling (POST 3) in trifectas as the pace-scenario closer.

Race 5 is a maiden special weight route for three-year-olds and up at one mile on the main track. The nine-horse field is one of the deeper maiden fields on the card, featuring entries from top barns including Steven M. Asmussen, who saddles two horses: HIDALGO (POST 1) and RAAQ TANSANI (POST 7). CURLIN’S UNION (POST 2) and SPECIAL AGENDA (POST 4) share the morning line co-favoritism at 2-1.

Pace Analysis

Curlin's Union (POST 2) at 2-1 from trainer Danny Pish and jockey Rene Diaz should be forwardly placed from post 2 at one mile. Special Agenda (POST 4) at 2-1 from trainer Kari Craddock and jockey D.L. Parker also figures to be involved early. Wasted Warrior (POST 8) at 6-1 from Valdez-Cabral and A.J. Juarez Jr. could add pace from the outside. With multiple horses likely to contest the early pace in a one-mile route, the race sets up as a potential setting for a closer to come home strongly in the final quarter mile. Raaq Tansani (POST 7) at 5-1 from the Asmussen barn and jockey S. Elliott is likely the designated closer.

Key Contenders

Curlin's Union (POST 2) at 2-1 draws directly off the rail and is from the Danny Pish barn. The Curlin bloodline is prominent at Lone Star — Curlin offspring perform consistently well at one-mile distances on main tracks, and the Pish barn has shown a consistent ability to win maiden routes. Rene Diaz on board makes this one among the most straightforward betting propositions on the card.

Special Agenda (POST 4) at 2-1 is from trainer Kari Craddock and ridden by D.L. Parker. Craddock is an accomplished Lone Star trainer who has won with horses at this level. Post 4 at one mile is ideal, giving Parker the choice to press forward or sit mid-pack depending on the early pace development. The co-favoritism with Curlin's Union (POST 2) gives both horses legitimacy as first-half plays.

Secondary Choices

Raaq Tansani (POST 7) at 5-1 is the most interesting play from the Asmussen barn in this race. S. Elliott is a strong jockey who knows how to rate a horse at one mile on dirt. The Asmussen barn rarely shows up at maiden level without a properly prepared horse, and Raaq Tansani (POST 7) with Elliott at 5-1 could be the most live price in the race. If the pace is contested up front, this horse could sweep through horses late.

Wasted Warrior (POST 8) at 6-1 from trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral and jockey A.J. Juarez Jr. is a horse that Juarez could press forward from post 8 or angle for the outside portion of the track. At 6-1, this is the best value price in the upper half of the field.

None But The Brave (POST 6) at 8-1 is trained by William Bret Calhoun with Jose L. Alvarez up. Calhoun in maiden routes at one mile is a very strong angle, and 8-1 represents significant overlay potential. If None But The Brave (POST 6) has the right work pattern, this price is too generous.

Longshots

Combat Carl (POST 5) at 10-1 from trainer Alejandro Baldillez Jr. and jockey Weston Hamilton is a double-digit price that could improve with a clean trip. Hamilton is a capable rider who can maximize a horse's position at the start of a route.

Hidalgo (POST 1) at 12-1 from the Asmussen barn and jockey Erik Asmussen breaks from the rail. Erik Asmussen has shown improvement this meet, and riding for his father's barn at 12-1 in a maiden route with a clean rail post could produce a surprise.

Mr Fahrenheit (POST 3) at 12-1 from trainer Eduardo Cruz and jockey Fernando Jara has a fair post but needs to show more class than the price suggests. Worth a superfecta fill.

Rockin' James (POST 9) at 30-1 from trainer Vonn Mallery and jockey Luis A. Huaman is the longest shot in the field and figures to be well-beaten. This is a throwout in any serious wagering ticket.

Selections

Win: Raaq Tansani (POST 7) Place: Curlin's Union (POST 2) Show: Special Agenda (POST 4)

Wagering strategy: Take a swing on Raaq Tansani (POST 7) at 5-1, which represents the best overlay in the top part of this field. Use Raaq Tansani (POST 7) on top in exactas with Curlin's Union (POST 2) and Special Agenda (POST 4) underneath. Add None But The Brave (POST 6) in trifectas as the value inclusion.

Race 6 is an optional claiming race at $12,500 going one mile on the turf. The nine-horse field features MR JAWS (POST 1) and CINCO RICHIE (POST 2) sharing the co-favorite position at 2-1, making this one of the more competitive races on the card to pick a winner in. This is a condition that includes older horses, and the turf at one mile should play to horses with proven grass form.

Pace Analysis

Mr Jaws (POST 1) from the rail at 2-1 under trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez is in a perfect position to establish early pace on the turf. Cinco Richie (POST 2) at 2-1 from trainer Karen E. Jacks and jockey Mario Fuentes sits directly outside and will likely press from a favorable post. With both co-favorites positioned to contest the early lead, the pace could set up for a horse to come from mid-pack, making Guitar Boy (POST 5) at 4-1 and Team Gormley (POST 9) at 4-1 interesting alternatives.

Key Contenders

Mr Jaws (POST 1) at 2-1 from the rail draws the premium inside post on a turf course where inside position is enormously valuable in a mile race. Gourneau has had consistent success at this level on the grass, and Valdez-Jiminez is familiar with this horse's tendencies. At 2-1, Mr Jaws (POST 1) is the legitimate public choice.

Cinco Richie (POST 2) at 2-1 from trainer Karen E. Jacks and jockey Mario Fuentes has post 2, nearly as good as the rail. Jacks is a solid turf trainer at Lone Star, and Cinco Richie (POST 2) at 2-1 with a strong jockey and favorable position must be respected. The fact that the market splits the favoritism evenly between the two inside posts at 2-1 each suggests a closely matched pair atop the field.

Secondary Choices

Guitar Boy (POST 5) at 4-1 from trainer Mackenzie Kane and jockey Weston Hamilton is the best-priced alternative to the two favorites. Post 5 on the turf at a mile is a solid middle draw, and Hamilton can allow this horse to find its rhythm in the early stages. At 4-1, Guitar Boy (POST 5) offers better return than the co-favorites with a reasonable chance to win.

Team Gormley (POST 9) at 4-1 from trainer Kevin Scholl and jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. draws the outside post in a nine-horse turf field, which is a clear disadvantage at one mile. However, Team Gormley (POST 9) at 4-1 in optional claiming company on the grass with a legitimate jockey demands inclusion if this horse has shown strong turf form.

Painted Lad (POST 7) at 5-1 from trainer James T. Coats Jr. and jockey I.V. Diego has an outer post but carries legitimate morning line respect at 5-1. Diego is an effective turf rider, and if Painted Lad (POST 7) has a strong grass record, this could be the value play in the race.

Longshots

Bandera Bling (POST 3) at 10-1 from trainer Karen E. Jacks and jockey Erik Asmussen is the stablemate of Cinco Richie (POST 2). Jacks entering two horses creates an interesting dynamic, and Bandera Bling (POST 3) from post 3 with Erik Asmussen at 10-1 deserves minor exotic inclusion.

Champagne Stooper (POST 8) at 10-1 from trainer Eric W. Schneider and jockey Luis A. Huaman has a difficult outer post in a nine-horse turf field. At 10-1, this is a longshot with limited supporting angles unless Huaman can navigate a clear run down the backside.

Tap To Connect (POST 4) at 12-1 from trainer Ronnie Cravens III and jockey Rene Diaz has Diaz up, which is always encouraging, but 12-1 on the morning line suggests limited expectations from the barn.

Slim Jimmy (POST 6) at 20-1 from trainer Ronnie Cravens III and jockey Santos Rivera is effectively a throwout, as 20-1 in a nine-horse optional claimer on turf reflects minimal competitive expectation.

Selections

Win: Mr Jaws (POST 1) Place: Cinco Richie (POST 2) Show: Guitar Boy (POST 5)

Wagering strategy: With co-favorites at 2-1 each, the exacta between Mr Jaws (POST 1) and Cinco Richie (POST 2) will likely pay short. Focus exotic action on trifectas using Mr Jaws (POST 1) and Cinco Richie (POST 2) on top with Guitar Boy (POST 5), Team Gormley (POST 9), and Painted Lad (POST 7) filling the bottom. Consider a small win play on Painted Lad (POST 7) at 5-1 as the best value alternative.

Race 7 is a claiming race at $10,000 going 1,430 feet on the main track. The seven-horse field features NANG SINGHA (POST 2) and FOREVER SAFE (POST 7) sharing co-favoritism at 2-1. At the $10,000 claiming level, class and current form are the dominant handicapping factors.

Pace Analysis

With Nang Singha (POST 2) at 2-1 from trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral and jockey Rene Diaz likely to be engaged near the early pace from post 2, and Forever Safe (POST 7) at 2-1 from trainer Dick Cappellucci and jockey A.J. Juarez Jr. coming from the outside post, the pace dynamics will depend on who establishes the early fractions. Calebs Lady (POST 3) at 4-1 from Francisco Bravo and Floyd Wethey Jr. could also factor into the early pace picture from post 3. A contested pace at seven furlongs in claiming company often produces a split result where a horse who ran mid-pack conserves energy to win.

Key Contenders

Nang Singha (POST 2) at 2-1 from Valdez-Cabral and Diaz has a strong inside post draw at this distance. Diaz is among the most effective riders at this level, and Valdez-Cabral has had consistent success placing horses in the right claiming spots. The 2-1 morning line reflects legitimate class and current form for this level.

Forever Safe (POST 7) at 2-1 from trainer Dick Cappellucci and jockey A.J. Juarez Jr. comes from the widest post in a seven-horse field at 1,430 feet, which is the primary concern. Cappellucci is a savvy conditioner who knows his horse's abilities, and Juarez will need to find a clean path on the first turn from the outside. At an equal price with Nang Singha (POST 2), the post position gives the edge to the horse on the inside.

Secondary Choices

Calebs Lady (POST 3) at 4-1 from trainer Francisco Bravo and jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. breaks from post 3, which is a solid position at 1,430 feet. Bravo has been active at Lone Star with modest success, and Calebs Lady (POST 3) at 4-1 in a seven-horse field on the rail side of the draw represents fair value.

Colormecairo (POST 1) at 5-1 is from the Steven M. Asmussen barn and ridden by Erik Asmussen. The rail post in a seven-horse claiming sprint is ideal for an Asmussen-trained horse with any early speed. Steven Asmussen rarely enters a horse at this level without purpose, and Colormecairo (POST 1) at 5-1 with his son in the irons could be the live one in this race.

Longshots

Princess Celine (POST 6) at 8-1 from trainer Kevin K. Roberson and jockey Isaiah Wiseman has a middle-to-outside post. Wiseman has been effective at this level, and Princess Celine (POST 6) at 8-1 is worth minor trifecta inclusion if the pace scenario develops favorably.

Cueca (POST 4) at 10-1 from trainer Francisco Bravo and jockey I.V. Diego is a stablemate of Calebs Lady (POST 3). Bravo entering two horses gives the barn a tactical edge, and Cueca (POST 4) at 10-1 is worth including in superfectas.

Beautiful Janet (POST 5) at 15-1 from trainer Aracely Mejia and jockey Luis A. Huaman is a longshot that would need a major pace collapse to factor.

Selections

Win: Colormecairo (POST 1) Place: Nang Singha (POST 2) Show: Calebs Lady (POST 3)

Wagering strategy: Take value on Colormecairo (POST 1) at 5-1 from the Asmussen barn off the rail. Key Colormecairo (POST 1) and Nang Singha (POST 2) in exactas with Calebs Lady (POST 3) and Forever Safe (POST 7) filling. The Asmussen rail horse at 5-1 in a $10,000 claimer is a classic underlay-of-the-favorite situation that sharp bettors should exploit.

Race 8 is an optional claiming route at $35,000 restricted to horses that have not won three races. HEAVENVILLE (POST 6) opens as the prohibitive morning line favorite at 1-1, which is an unusually short price for a race of this nature and indicates the public handicappers view this as a near-certainty.

Pace Analysis

With Heavenville (POST 6) at 1-1 from trainer J.R. Caldwell and jockey Rene Diaz commanding the market, the pace scenario will largely depend on whether any horse in the field can challenge for the early lead. Dimatic (POST 2) at 3-1 from the Asmussen barn and jockey S. Elliott is the second choice and likely to sit second or third. Gigante (POST 3) at 5-1 is the second Asmussen entry with Erik Asmussen up, providing the barn a pair of tactical options. Knock Knock Joke (POST 1) at 12-1 from Caldwell and Lane J. Luzzi is the stablemate of Heavenville (POST 6) and could be used as a pace setter to benefit the favorite.

Key Contenders

Heavenville (POST 6) at 1-1 is simply the class of the field under J.R. Caldwell and Rene Diaz. A 1-1 morning line in an optional claiming route at $35,000 is a strong statement from the oddsmakers, and Caldwell is known for having his horses peaked for these types of conditions. Heavenville (POST 6) at even money will not offer value for win bettors, making this horse best used as a key in exactas and trifectas.

Dimatic (POST 2) at 3-1 from the Asmussen barn and S. Elliott is the legitimate main threat to Heavenville (POST 6). Asmussen knows how to prepare a horse to challenge at this level, and S. Elliott is among the more effective route riders in the colony at Lone Star. Post 2 gives Elliott the opportunity to track the pace comfortably in the early stages.

Secondary Choices

Gigante (POST 3) at 5-1 from trainer Steven M. Asmussen and jockey Erik Asmussen creates an interesting dynamic. With Dimatic (POST 2) and Gigante (POST 3) both from the Asmussen barn, the trainer has tactical flexibility. Gigante (POST 3) at 5-1 with the inside post advantage over the stablemate could be the designated closer or the horse that benefits if Heavenville (POST 6) fails to fire.

Clovisconnection (POST 4) at 8-1 from trainer Justin Evans and jockey D.L. Parker has Parker up, who is capable of winning on any given horse. Evans has had occasional success at this level, and Clovisconnection (POST 4) at 8-1 is the best price among horses with legitimate credentials.

Holiday Pay (POST 5) at 8-1 is the stablemate of Clovisconnection (POST 4) under Justin Evans, with R.A. Vazquez aboard. Evans enters two horses and has tactical options similar to the Asmussen stable. Holiday Pay (POST 5) at 8-1 with a capable rider is worth inclusion in trifectas.

Longshots

Bender (POST 8) at 15-1 from trainer Martin Manuel Valdez-Cabral and jockey A.J. Juarez Jr. draws the outside post in an eight-horse field at one mile. Juarez is a competent rider who can handle a horse from anywhere in the gate, but 15-1 from post 8 in a race dominated by an even-money favorite is a tough spot.

Chasing Time (POST 7) at 15-1 from trainer Carlos A. Padilla and jockey Geovanni Franko-Angeles needs significant improvement from recent efforts to matter here.

Knock Knock Joke (POST 1) at 12-1 from trainer Caldwell and jockey Lane J. Luzzi is the stablemate of Heavenville (POST 6). The 12-1 price suggests this is a supporting player, but from post 1 in an eight-horse field, Knock Knock Joke (POST 1) could lead the field to the pace and soften rivals for Heavenville (POST 6) in the stretch.

Selections

Win: Heavenville (POST 6) Place: Dimatic (POST 2) Show: Gigante (POST 3)

Wagering strategy: Heavenville (POST 6) at 1-1 is unplayable for straight win bettors seeking value. Instead, key Heavenville (POST 6) on top in exactas with Dimatic (POST 2) and Gigante (POST 3), and look for trifecta value using all three plus Clovisconnection (POST 4) or Holiday Pay (POST 5) in the bottom. If you believe Heavenville (POST 6) is a lock, use it as a banker in the Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) and the late Pick 4.

RACE 9 — Post 6:55 — 1100f | T | C | Clm 25000n2l | BUM | Purse $18,500

The finale is a claiming sprint on the turf at 1,100 feet — roughly 5.5 furlongs — restricted to horses that have not won two lifetime races. With 13 horses in the field, this is the largest field of the day and offers significant exotic wagering potential. Divine Wind (POST 1) opens as the morning line favorite at 2-1.

Race 9

Pace Analysis

Divine Wind (POST 1) from trainer Justin Evans and jockey Christian Ramos has the rail in a 13-horse turf sprint, which is an ideal position for a speed horse if it can break alertly and find the fence early. With 13 horses in a turf sprint, the early fractions will be brisk and chaotic, and the pace could collapse for late runners depending on how many horses attempt to establish position through the first turn. Cute Little Devil (POST 8) at 5-1 from Cappellucci and Vazquez and Millie G (POST 7) at 10-1 from Gustafson and Manrrique could add pace from the middle of the gate. K K's First Dance (POST 11) and other outer-post horses will need to find their way through traffic in the early stages of a short grass sprint.

Key Contenders

Divine Wind (POST 1) at 2-1 from trainer Justin Evans and jockey Christian Ramos has the most advantageous post in the field. In a 13-horse turf sprint at 1,100 feet, the rail draw is enormously valuable, and if Divine Wind (POST 1) breaks alertly, Ramos can secure a ground-saving trip along the inside fence. Evans has a respectable record with turf sprinters at this level, making Divine Wind (POST 1) the legitimate top choice.

Cute Little Devil (POST 8) at 5-1 from trainer Dick Cappellucci and jockey R.A. Vazquez is the most intriguing value play in the race. Cappellucci is an accomplished handler of turf sprinters, and Cute Little Devil (POST 8) at 5-1 from post 8 has a workable enough draw if Vazquez can find a clean path early. In a 13-horse field, post 8 is close enough to the inside to avoid the extreme traffic of an outer post.

Secondary Choices

Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3) at 6-1 from trainer Allen Dupuy and jockey Weston Hamilton has post 3, the second-best draw available in this 13-horse field. Hamilton is a steady rider, and Dupuy has had results on the Lone Star turf. Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3) at 6-1 from a prime post in a field this large is arguably the best overall value in Race 9.

Penny Powers (POST 2) at 8-1 from trainer Scott E. Young and jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. draws post 2, which is nearly as good as the rail. Wethey is an experienced turf rider, and Penny Powers (POST 2) at 8-1 from a rail-adjacent post in a 13-horse field could be an overlay that savvy exotics players should use liberally.

Lumina (POST 4) at 8-1 from trainer Steven M. Asmussen and jockey Erik Asmussen has a clean middle post. Asmussen at this level with his son aboard is never to be ignored, and Lumina (POST 4) at 8-1 on the turf in a claiming sprint is worth inclusion. Asmussen horses often run better on turf than their odds suggest in conditions like these.

Longshots

Honor And Fire (POST 10) at 12-1 from trainer Mark Whitton and jockey D.L. Parker has Parker from an outer post. Parker is skilled enough to navigate a 13-horse turf sprint, but post 10 in this field is a significant disadvantage.

Millie G (POST 7) at 10-1 from trainer Austin Gustafson and jockey Freddy Jose Manrrique has a workable post and a rider familiar with the barn. At 10-1, Millie G (POST 7) is a reasonable trifecta/superfecta inclusion.

Demotion (POST 5) at 15-1 from trainer Edgar V. Mendoza and jockey Thiago Canuto has Canuto from a middle post. At 15-1, this is a longshot that needs a perfect trip to factor.

Jalapena Lena (POST 6) at 15-1 from trainer Sarah Nicole Davidson and jockey Mario Fuentes is another long price with limited supporting angles. Trifecta filler only.

K K's First Dance (POST 11) at 15-1 from trainer Joaquin E. Garza and jockey Isaiah Wiseman has an outer post in this large field. In a 13-horse turf sprint, outer posts require considerable luck to find a clean trip.

Toddy (POST 9) at 20-1 from trainer Jimmy Dale Dodwell and jockey Luis A. Huaman is a longshot that lacks clear angle support at this price.

Stay Liquid (POST 12) at 20-1 from trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez draws a difficult outer post and is effectively a throwout in win wagering.

Pirulita (POST 13) at 20-1 from trainer Miguel Silva and jockey Rene Diaz draws the outermost post in a 13-horse turf sprint. Despite Diaz's skills, this post is almost insurmountable in a short grass sprint without significant luck.

Selections

Win: Divine Wind (POST 1) Place: Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3) Show: Cute Little Devil (POST 8)

Wagering strategy: Divine Wind (POST 1) is the correct play to win given the post position advantage. Key Divine Wind (POST 1) on top in exactas with Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3), Penny Powers (POST 2), and Cute Little Devil (POST 8) underneath. For trifectas in this 13-horse field, use Divine Wind (POST 1) on top, Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3) and Penny Powers (POST 2) in the middle, and spread Cute Little Devil (POST 8), Lumina (POST 4), and Millie G (POST 7) across the bottom. Given the large field size, the superfecta in this race could carry significant value at an accessible $0.10 base bet.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Rene Diaz is among the busiest and most effective riders on today's card, with mounts in Races 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 9. He is aboard morning line favorites or co-favorites in multiple races including Somerville (POST 5) in Race 1, Texas Speed Queen (POST 4) in Race 4, Curlin's Union (POST 2) in Race 5, Nang Singha (POST 2) in Race 7, and Heavenville (POST 6) in Race 8. Diaz is consistently one of the most productive riders at Lone Star and his book of mounts today reflects the confidence major trainers place in him. Bettors should note that Diaz on a morning line favorite at Lone Star is historically a strong angle, and his percentage with horses trained by J.R. Caldwell is particularly high.

A.J. Juarez Jr. is another jockey with a full book of mounts, appearing in Races 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 9. His best shot for a win today may come aboard Forever Safe (POST 7) in Race 7 or Wasted Warrior (POST 8) in Race 5. Juarez has demonstrated the ability to win on horses from multiple barns, and his experience at Lone Star makes him a reliable factor in any race.

Erik Asmussen, son of Hall of Fame trainer Steven M. Asmussen, is building his book at Lone Star and appears in Races 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, primarily aboard his father's horses. He is a developing rider with intimate knowledge of his family's barn's horses, and his mounts from the Asmussen stable in Races 7, 8, and 9 — Colormecairo (POST 1), Gigante (POST 3), and Lumina (POST 4) — all have legitimate chances.

Floyd Wethey Jr. has a solid book of mounts and is the designated rider for several competitive horses, including Fine Finish (POST 3) in Race 3 and Calebs Lady (POST 3) in Race 7. His experience on both dirt and turf at Lone Star makes him a reliable factor.

D.L. Parker rides with Races 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, and 9 on his card. His best opportunity for a live winner today may be Special Agenda (POST 4) in Race 5 or Clovisconnection (POST 4) in Race 8. Parker has consistent results at this level and is a professional ride regardless of the class of race.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Steven M. Asmussen is the dominant training presence at Lone Star Park, and today's card features his horses in Races 5, 7, 8, and 9. Asmussen has multiple entries in Race 5 with Hidalgo (POST 1) and Raaq Tansani (POST 7), and in Race 8 with Dimatic (POST 2) and Gigante (POST 3). His stable at Lone Star has historically maintained a win rate above 25 percent, and horses from his barn are rarely entered without being ready to run. Raaq Tansani (POST 7) in Race 5 and Dimatic (POST 2) in Race 8 represent his most significant betting opportunities today.

William Bret Calhoun has a strong local presence as well, entering horses in Races 1, 3, and 5. He saddles Closing Speaker (POST 1) in Race 1, Fine Finish (POST 3) and Ninth Island (POST 4) in Race 3, and None But The Brave (POST 6) in Race 5. Calhoun has historically posted strong numbers at Lone Star in route races and turf events, and his two-horse entry in Race 3 is particularly intriguing.

Dick Cappellucci enters runners in Races 2, 7, and 9, including Another Crossbow (POST 3) and Get Back Jo Jo (POST 6) in Race 2, Forever Safe (POST 7) in Race 7, and Cute Little Devil (POST 8) in Race 9. Cappellucci has a solid win rate at this track and his horses frequently run well in maiden and claiming events. Cute Little Devil (POST 8) in the turf closer at 5-1 could be his most significant opportunity today.

Danny Pish is a reliable presence at Lone Star, entering Cuvee's Bellarose (POST 6) in Race 1, Curlin's Union (POST 2) in Race 5, and Claire's Curlin (POST 7) in Race 4. Pish has a solid record with maiden and allowance horses, and Claire's Curlin (POST 7) in Race 4 is a particularly compelling play given the trainer's allowance record at this track.

J.R. Caldwell is another high-percentage trainer on the card, entering Somerville (POST 5) in Race 1, Texas Speed Queen (POST 4) in Race 4, Heavenville (POST 6) in Race 8, and Knock Knock Joke (POST 1) in Race 8. Heavenville (POST 6) in Race 8 at 1-1 reflects the deep confidence Caldwell and the market have in this horse's class superiority at this condition.

Eduardo Cruz fields horses in Races 2, 4, and 5. He has Toosexyformyshirt (POST 4) in Race 2, For The Home Front (POST 1) and Cowgirl Dream (POST 2) in Race 4, and Mr Fahrenheit (POST 3) in Race 5. Cruz's two-horse entry in Race 4 with Cowgirl Dream (POST 2) as the more likely winner is consistent with his pattern of entering a pace horse and a closer in the same race to improve the conditions for the primary runner.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The standout value play on today's card is Raaq Tansani (POST 7) in Race 5 at 5-1. An Asmussen-trained horse at five times your money in a maiden route, with S. Elliott aboard, represents exactly the type of overlay that regular Lone Star bettors should be playing. The two co-favorites in Race 5 are 2-1 each, and the morning line does not distinguish clearly between them, suggesting the market believes either of the top choices can win — while Raaq Tansani (POST 7) at 5-1 is drawing less attention than its pedigree and barn affiliation warrant.

Colormecairo (POST 1) in Race 7 at 5-1 from the rail under the Asmussen connections is the second-best value play on the card. In a $10,000 claiming sprint, Asmussen horses from the rail at 5-1 consistently outperform their market expectations. This is a prime example of a situational overlay that sharp bettors should not ignore.

Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3) in Race 9 at 6-1 from post 3 in a 13-horse turf sprint is the best structured value play for the finale. The combination of a prime post position draw and 6-1 morning line odds in a large field makes this horse significantly undervalued compared to Divine Wind (POST 1) at 2-1. If Divine Wind (POST 1) encounters any traffic on the rail in the first quarter-mile of a 13-horse sprint, Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3) from post 3 could find a cleaner trip and go straight to the lead.

For the Pick 5 covering Races 5 through 9, a recommended structure would be as follows: In Race 5, key Raaq Tansani (POST 7) with backup Curlin's Union (POST 2). In Race 6, use Mr Jaws (POST 1) and Cinco Richie (POST 2). In Race 7, single Colormecairo (POST 1) or key Nang Singha (POST 2). In Race 8, single Heavenville (POST 6) as the banker, which allows spreading in Races 5 and 9. In Race 9, use Divine Wind (POST 1), Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3), Penny Powers (POST 2), and Cute Little Devil (POST 8).

A compact $0.50 Pick 5 structure using Heavenville (POST 6) as the banker in Race 8, two horses in Race 6, and four horses in Race 9, with one or two horses in Races 5 and 7, can be assembled for under $50 while covering multiple live outcomes.

The best single-race exotic opportunity on the card is the trifecta in Race 9, where the 13-horse field, moderate purse, and diverse morning line prices create a structure where a $0.50 or $1 trifecta box using Divine Wind (POST 1), Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3), Penny Powers (POST 2), Cute Little Devil (POST 8), and Lumina (POST 4) could yield a significant return if any of the longer-priced horses run into the trifecta behind the favorite.

For the daily double connecting Races 8 and 9, keying Heavenville (POST 6) on top with four horses in Race 9 — Divine Wind (POST 1), Itty Bitty Baby (POST 3), Penny Powers (POST 2), and Cute Little Devil (POST 8) — is a clean, cost-effective structure. At $1 per combination, this four-horse second-leg spread costs $4 and covers the most likely outcomes in the finale with a near-banker in Race 8.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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