Hawthorne Race Course – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the May 21, 2026 card


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Race Day Overview — Hawthorne Race Course | May 21, 2026

Hawthorne Race Course kicks off its Thursday afternoon-into-evening card with ten races spread across a full slate of conditions, ranging from bottom-level claiming action to allowance competition on both the main track and the turf course. The card carries a 3:38 p.m. first post (Central Time), with the feature turf allowance nightcap wrapping up the evening. With $11,000 claiming battles at the bottom end and $31,000 allowance purses at the top, today's card offers a well-structured ladder of class, giving bettors multiple tiers of competitive wagering opportunities.

The overnight entries show a strong book overall. Trainer Larry Rivelli is represented in five of the ten races, signaling an aggressive booking strategy and giving his barn a significant presence across multiple surfaces and conditions. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez saddles horses in four races, and Michele Boyce sends out runners in three contests. The DiVito barn is active with entries in three races including a pair of stablemates in Race 4. These trainer clusters create interesting wagering overlays and potential key horse scenarios throughout the card.

Jockey Oscar Mojica is aboard in seven of the ten races and enters the afternoon as the clear riding favorite on the Hawthorne circuit. Hernandez O.K. rides in six races. Both riders figure heavily into virtually every Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequence on the card. Bettors building multi-race wagers will need to decide early whether to key these dominant riders or play against them in select spots.

There are no announced scratches to report as of card time.

Weather and Track Conditions — May 21, 2026

Chicago-area weather for May 21, 2026, reflects a typical late-spring pattern with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s Fahrenheit at first post, cooling gradually into the low 60s by evening's end. Winds are light out of the southwest at 8 to 12 miles per hour, which should not present significant issues for the turf course layout at Hawthorne. No precipitation is in the forecast for the afternoon or evening, which is favorable for maintaining consistent surface conditions throughout the card.

The main track at Hawthorne is expected to be rated fast. The absence of recent rainfall combined with overnight temperatures that have remained above freezing leaves the strip in prime condition. Clockers and track watchers have noted the surface has been playing fair in recent days, with no pronounced kickback issues reported.

The turf course is expected to be rated firm to good, which is typical for mid-May at Hawthorne following a relatively dry stretch. A firm turf course at Hawthorne historically favors horses with demonstrated turf form and those who have shown the ability to handle a tight, compact surface. Horses switching from the dirt to turf for the first time should be evaluated carefully, particularly in the maiden special weight contest in Race 3.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Hawthorne's one-mile dirt oval has historically displayed a moderate speed bias, particularly in sprint races at the six-and-a-half furlong distance. Horses that are able to secure a forward position near the rail through the first turn tend to control their own destiny in tight fields. In recent cards, inside post positions have been slightly advantageous in routes due to the ease of saving ground around both turns.

In sprint races, the data leans toward horses breaking from posts one through four having a measurable advantage in terms of reaching the first turn favorably positioned. Horses in posts five and six in a six-horse sprint field are not dramatically disadvantaged, but they will require a wider trip or a hot early pace to set up the stretch run.

On the Hawthorne turf course, which measures eleven furlongs around on the inner rail configuration for today's card, inside posts in the maiden special weight sprint in Race 3 and the allowance turf route in Race 7 will be closely watched. In turf sprints and routes at Hawthorne, the inside posts have historically provided an edge in fields of average size, though a contentious early pace can neutralize this advantage quickly. In today's ten-horse turf allowance nightcap in Race 7, post positions five through eight may require riders to make wider moves to avoid early traffic, giving a slight edge to the inside draw in what figures to be a moderately paced affair.

RACE 1 — Post 3:38 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 5000n3l | Purse $11,000

This is a six-furlong maiden-preferred claiming race restricted to horses that have not won three lifetime races, with a claiming price of $5,000. At the bottom rung of the claiming ladder at Hawthorne, the $11,000 purse draws horses that are either in form decline or those facing a drop in hopes of securing a condition win. The sprint distance over the main track should produce honest early fractions, though the modest field quality means paces can be unpredictable.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

With Easy Fast (2) drawing the inside rail and carrying the morning line favoritism at 1-1, the early pace scenario is dominated by his likely presence near the front. Canyon Shadows (1) also figures to show some speed from the rail. If both of those horses go for the lead early, the fractions could heat up beyond what the class level typically produces, theoretically setting up a closer. Sir Liam (6), trained by Brian Cook and ridden by Hernandez O.K., projects as a presser or closer and could benefit if the speed burns itself out. The pace figures to be honest rather than suicidal, but the presence of multiple early movers warrants watching the odds on any horse with a late kick.

Key Contenders

Easy Fast (2) draws the morning line favorite billing at 1-1 and is handled by trainer James DiVito, one of the more active and successful conditioners on the Hawthorne circuit. DiVito has a strong conversion rate with horses at this level, particularly with experienced horses making key class drops. Easy Fast (2) is ridden by Oscar Mojica, whose presence alone often compresses the odds on his mount. At 1-1 on the morning line, the true price may drift even shorter depending on early betting action. The combination of DiVito and Mojica at the $5,000 claiming level is one of the more reliable angles on this circuit, and Easy Fast (2) is the clear top selection here.

Sir Liam (6) at 4-1 on the morning line represents the most logical alternative. Trainer Brian Cook sends this runner out with Hernandez O.K. in the irons. Sir Liam (6) figures to track the early speed and could benefit from any pace meltdown involving Easy Fast (2) and Canyon Shadows (1) dueling on the front end. At a price that will likely start around 4-1 and possibly drift higher, Sir Liam (6) offers legitimate value in the exacta.

Secondary Choices

Canyon Shadows (1) at 5-1 draws the outside post in a six-horse field and is handled by trainer Kirby Frank J with Javier Tavares in the irons. Tavares has been a consistent performer at Hawthorne and knows the track well. Canyon Shadows (1) may attempt to control the pace from the outside post, but drawing post 1 means he will need to work slightly harder to establish position against Easy Fast (2) directly to his inside. If the pace collapses, Canyon Shadows (1) could loom as a live exacta partner.

Bad Obsession (5) at 8-1 is trained by Heather Irion and ridden by Reynier Arrieta. Irion is an active trainer on the local circuit and occasionally spots horses effectively when they are ready to fire. Bad Obsession (5) could be a live longshot if the pace scenario develops favorably.

Longshots

Dattts Life (3) at 10-1 is trained by Martin Reyes and ridden by Alexander Bendezu. Bendezu is a capable apprentice-type rider at this level but Dattts Life (3) faces a difficult task at this price. Line To Gain (4) at 15-1 for trainer Heriberto Villalobos and jockey Frank Reyes is the longest shot in the field and projects as a non-factor based on the morning line assignment.

Selections

Win: Easy Fast (2) Place: Sir Liam (6) Show: Canyon Shadows (1)

Betting Strategy: Single Easy Fast (2) on top in the exacta with Sir Liam (6) and Canyon Shadows (1) underneath. The win market figures to be short on Easy Fast (2), so the value play is an exacta box of Easy Fast (2) and Sir Liam (6) with a small saver on Canyon Shadows (1) in the place position.

RACE 2 — Post 4:10 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 10000b | Purse $31,000

This is a six-furlong optional claiming race at the $10,000 level open to older horses, with a claiming option attached. The $31,000 purse is a significant step up from Race 1 and draws a more competitive six-horse field. Optional claiming races at this condition attract horses whose connections are reluctant to expose them to a straight claiming tag, often meaning there is quality hiding in this field. Hugo Rodriguez saddles two runners here in Wayllen Richard (5) and El Mucho (6), creating an interesting barn dynamic.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

Wayllen Richard (5) at 2-1 on the morning line is the speed of the speed in this field and figures to set the tempo from post 5. El Mucho (6) is his stablemate from the Hugo Rodriguez barn and draws the outside post. The presence of stablemates with different tactical styles adds a layer of complexity. Frontier Marshal (1) from trainer Michele Boyce with Hernandez O.K. could press the pace from the inside rail. If Frontier Marshal (1) and Wayllen Richard (5) battle early, it creates an opportunity for closers like Fever Nation (4) or Red Moscato (2) to swoop late.

Key Contenders

Wayllen Richard (5) enters as the 2-1 morning line choice, and trainer Hugo Rodriguez having two runners in the same race is notable. Wayllen Richard (5) figures as the main speed, and Colon Luis H has been one of the sharper opportunists on the circuit when given early-running horses. The 2-1 price reflects genuine form, and this runner is the logical top selection if connections want the win.

Red Moscato (2) at 3-1 is trained by Eduardo Rodriguez and ridden by Mojica. Eduardo Rodriguez has had success at this level and Mojica is the circuit's leading rider. Red Moscato (2) figures to be a major player, and at 3-1 represents the best value in the race if Wayllen Richard (5) is bet down further.

Secondary Choices

Fever Nation (4) at 4-1 is trained by Kenny Jansen and ridden by Israel Hernandez. Jansen is a competent trainer at Hawthorne who occasionally surfaces a sharp one at a price. Fever Nation (4) projects as a presser-to-closer and could benefit from pace pressure set up by the Rodriguez stablemates.

El Mucho (6) at 4-1 shares the same trainer as the morning line favorite, Hugo Rodriguez, who goes with two horses in the same race. When a trainer enters two horses at the same morning line odds as a co-favorite, it can sometimes indicate uncertainty about which one is sharper. REYES FRANK is aboard El Mucho (6), while Colon gets the leg up on Wayllen Richard (5). The jockey assignments suggest Colon on Wayllen Richard (5) is the stable's main hope, but El Mucho (6) must be respected.

Longshots

Frontier Marshal (1) at 5-1 with Hernandez O.K. from the Boyce barn is more live than the odds suggest if the inside post allows a ground-saving trip. Verrazanointhesky (3) at 15-1 for trainer Joel Martinez and Tavares is the longest shot in the field and faces a significant step up in class at this level.

Selections

Win: Wayllen Richard (5) Place: Red Moscato (2) Show: Fever Nation (4)

Betting Strategy: Use Red Moscato (2) as the value play in exactas underneath Wayllen Richard (5). A trifecta box of Wayllen Richard (5), Red Moscato (2), and Fever Nation (4) is sensible at modest cost. The stablemate angle with El Mucho (6) bears watching in the trifecta at a price.

RACE 3 — Post 4:38 — 1100f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | Purse $30,000

A seven-horse maiden special weight sprint on the turf course at approximately five and a half furlongs. This is one of the most interesting races on the card from a handicapping standpoint, as maiden turf sprints can produce volatile outcomes, particularly when first-time starters or lightly-raced horses with unknown turf profiles are entered. Larry Rivelli saddles two horses here in Capovivo (2) and Chief Morter (4), giving him significant leverage in this maiden event.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

With seven horses on a turf course where pace can compress quickly, the early tempo will be critical. Kazoom (3) and Creating Havoc (5) both figure to show some early foot based on their pedigrees and barn positioning. Capovivo (2) with Mojica may be rated off the pace early. The Rivelli pair projects as closers or pressers, while Rockfest (6) and Tuff Heart (7) are harder to project without known form lines. A moderate pace on firm turf typically benefits horses with tactical speed who can settle behind the pace and accelerate through the final sixteenth.

Key Contenders

Capovivo (2) at 2-1 is the morning line favorite and comes from the Rivelli barn with Mojica up. Rivelli is one of the elite trainers on the Hawthorne circuit with a strong record in maiden turf routes and sprints. The combination of the circuit's best trainer and best jockey in a maiden special weight with a 2-1 morning line is always compelling. Capovivo (2) figures to be bet even tighter than 2-1 at post time.

Kazoom (3) at 4-1 is trained by Eduardo Rodriguez and ridden by Israel Hernandez. Rodriguez has shown an ability to develop young turf horses and Kazoom (3) at 4-1 may represent a solid second choice here. If Kazoom (3) can secure a forward position on a firm turf course, the running style may suit the conditions.

Secondary Choices

Chief Morter (4) at 4-1 is the second Rivelli entry, ridden by E.T. Baird, one of the most experienced riders at Hawthorne. The Rivelli barn having two horses in a maiden turf sprint is an interesting dynamic. With Baird on Chief Morter (4) and Mojica on Capovivo (2), bettors must consider whether the stable prefers one over the other based on jockey assignments. Mojica riding Capovivo (2) suggests that horse is the primary choice, but Chief Morter (4) is a legitimate secondary player.

Creating Havoc (5) at 4-1 is trained by Chris Block and ridden by Colon Luis H. Block is an underrated trainer at this level, and Creating Havoc (5) at 4-1 could represent a solid overlay if the pace scenario develops favorably for a horse with early speed on firm turf.

Longshots

Rockfest (6) at 6-1 from trainer James DiVito and jockey Hernandez O.K. is worth a look at the price. DiVito is active on this card and a 6-1 shot in a maiden turf sprint that goes overlooked due to the Rivelli presence is exactly the kind of play to consider in multi-race wagers. Tuff Heart (7) at 8-1 is trained by Charles Davis Jr. and ridden by Tavares. An 8-1 turf maiden is worth a partial inclusion in trifecta and superfecta wagers. Lieutenant Charm (1) at 10-1 from trainer Joel Berndt and jockey Frank Reyes is the longest price in the field and is difficult to endorse at the morning line without additional workouts or form evidence to support the price.

Selections

Win: Capovivo (2) Place: Kazoom (3) Show: Chief Morter (4)

Betting Strategy: Capovivo (2) will be bet heavily and may be 8-5 or shorter at post time. The value in this race is building exactas using Capovivo (2) on top with Rockfest (6) underneath for a potential overlay. Trifecta tickets combining Capovivo (2) and Chief Morter (4) on top with Creating Havoc (5), Kazoom (3), and Rockfest (6) in the third slot offer solid coverage at reasonable cost.

RACE 4 — Post 5:09 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 50000b | Purse $32,000

This six-furlong optional claiming race at the $50,000 level is the premier dirt sprint on the card. The $32,000 purse attracts horses at the upper end of the claiming spectrum at Hawthorne, and the six-horse field is tightly contested across the board. James DiVito sends out two runners in Baby Boat (5) and Eli's Promise (6), which is a significant barn angle at this price level. Eli's Promise (6) is the 3-1 morning line favorite.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

This is likely to be a genuinely contested pace with several horses projecting as early types. Smoken Boy (1) from post 1 will attempt to save ground early, while Fast Jack (2) and Ravin's Ransom (3) could press from outside positions. Baby Boat (5) and Eli's Promise (6) may have more tactical versatility. The pace scenario in optional claimers at this level is often more controlled than lower claiming events, and a moderate pace could produce a stalker-type winner.

Key Contenders

Eli's Promise (6) at 3-1 is the DiVito barn's primary runner based on the jockey assignment of Aranguren Johanis. As the morning line favorite in the DiVito double-entry scenario, Eli's Promise (6) is the logical top choice. DiVito at the $50,000 optional claiming level with the favored morning line is a sign of confidence from connections. The outside post 6 is a slight concern in a six-horse sprint, but the class edge is real.

Ravin's Ransom (3) at 4-1 from trainer Larry Rivelli and jockey E.T. Baird is the most dangerous alternative. Rivelli at this level has a strong record, and Ravin's Ransom (3) at 4-1 offers legitimate value against the DiVito entries. Baird riding for Rivelli in a competitive optional claimer is one of the more reliable barn-jockey combinations at Hawthorne.

Secondary Choices

Fast Jack (2) at 4-1 from trainer Scott Becker and Alexander Bendezu is an interesting contender. Becker sends horses out ready at this level when he has a live one, and Fast Jack (2) at 4-1 in an optional claimer with Bendezu could be the upsetter. Baby Boat (5) at 4-1 shares the barn with Eli's Promise (6) and has Hernandez O.K. in the saddle. When DiVito enters two horses and the secondary choice carries Hernandez O.K., connections clearly believe both runners are live. Baby Boat (5) could be the value play if Eli's Promise (6) is bet down to 2-1.

Indyville (4) at 5-1 is trained by Michele Boyce and ridden by Oscar Mojica. The Mojica factor should never be dismissed, and Boyce with a competitive runner in an optional claimer is worth tracking. Indyville (4) could be a useful trifecta component.

Longshots

Smoken Boy (1) at 5-1 from trainer Cheryl Winebaugh and Colon Luis H draws the inside post and will need to establish position early. At 5-1, Smoken Boy (1) is an overlay candidate if the pace scenario plays to a front-runner, but the competition at this level is significant.

Selections

Win: Eli's Promise (6) Place: Ravin's Ransom (3) Show: Fast Jack (2)

Betting Strategy: The DiVito double-entry is the central angle in this race. Key Eli's Promise (6) in exactas with Ravin's Ransom (3) and Baby Boat (5). A trifecta using Eli's Promise (6) and Ravin's Ransom (3) on top with Fast Jack (2), Baby Boat (5), and Indyville (4) in the third slot covers the likely outcome spread at reasonable cost.

RACE 5 — Post 5:40 — 1760f | T | C | Clm 12500 | Purse $15,000

This is a one-mile turf claiming race for fillies and mares at the $12,500 claiming level, with an eight-horse field. This is one of the more contentious races on the card to handicap, given the range of morning line prices from 1-1 to 15-1. Floribunda (6) is the overwhelming morning line favorite at 1-1 and figures to draw the majority of early betting action. The turf mile for claiming fillies and mares at Hawthorne can produce surprising results, as horses in this tier often have inconsistent form.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

The one-mile turf trip at Hawthorne typically produces a moderate early pace as horses jockey for position around the first turn before settling into the backstretch. Floribunda (6) is clearly the class of this field based on her morning line assignment, and trainer Joel Berndt with Colon Luis H is a sharp combination. However, a 1-1 favorite in a field of eight on the turf at the $12,500 claiming level is vulnerable, and the pace dynamics could be exploited by a horse with tactical position and late energy. Desert Glow (1), Peacock Road (3), and Visionista (8) all figure to factor into the early pace calculations.

Key Contenders

Floribunda (6) at 1-1 is the clear morning line favorite and trainer Joel Berndt must be respected at this level. With Colon Luis H in the irons, this filly figures to be a controlling presence in the field. However, 1-1 on a turf mile claimer for fillies and mares is a price bettors must be willing to either accept or fade entirely. Berndt has been effective with claiming turf females and Floribunda (6) appears to be a legitimate top choice.

Desert Glow (1) at 4-1 from the Eduardo Rodriguez barn with Mojica represents significant value at the price if Floribunda (6) is bet to even money or below. Rodriguez and Mojica combining at 4-1 in the same race as Floribunda (6) suggests this runner has a legitimate shot and may be the most dangerous individual to upset the chalk.

Secondary Choices

Peacock Road (3) at 4-1 is trained by David R. Reid and ridden by Israel Hernandez. Reid is a competent trainer with turf milers and Peacock Road (3) at 4-1 offers the same odds as Desert Glow (1), creating an interesting value choice between the two. Visionista (8) at 4-1 with Frank Reyes for trainer Elias Lopez rounds out the 4-1 morning line contingent and could benefit from a wide trip around the turf course.

Longshots

Lotta Roses (2) at 8-1 from trainer Maximino Quinonez and Alexander Bendezu is worth a small play in the trifecta if the favorite is at even money. Memphis Cash Queen (7) at 10-1 for trainer Dino Dizeo and Aranguren Johanis is a price play that could slot into the trifecta. April's Gem (5) at 12-1 for trainer Rigo Rosas and Hernandez O.K. is a longshot inclusion worth noting. Daisy Mae Attack (4) at 15-1 from trainer Shane Childers and jockey Stanley A.O. is the longest price in the field and difficult to endorse without further evidence.

Selections

Win: Floribunda (6) Place: Desert Glow (1) Show: Peacock Road (3)

Betting Strategy: Floribunda (6) will likely be unplayable on the win end at 1-1 or shorter. The best approach is to include Floribunda (6) as a key in exactas and trifectas with Desert Glow (1) underneath, and wheel the trifecta with Peacock Road (3), Visionista (8), and Lotta Roses (2) in the third slot. A small win bet on Desert Glow (1) at 4-1 as an upset play is reasonable given the Mojica factor.

RACE 6 — Post 6:11 — 1320f | D | A | Alw 31000n1x | Purse $31,000

A six-furlong allowance sprint for horses that have not won an allowance race or a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. This is a sharp field of seven horses with Larry Rivelli's Tre Italiani (5) installed as the 1-1 morning line favorite with Mojica aboard. Allowance n1x races are among the most predictable at the non-graded level when a clear class standout is present, and Tre Italiani (5) appears to be that horse.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

With Tre Italiani (5) likely the tactical speed of the field and Mojica guiding him through the race, the fractions should be manageable. Good To Be Prince (1) from Eduardo Rodriguez and Felix J.E. could press early from the inside post. Strato (3) from trainer John Haran and E.T. Baird is a potential pace factor. He Gone (6) from Rodriguez and Aranguren could be set up for a late run if the pace gets contentious. A moderate to honest pace should favor Tre Italiani (5) given the morning line assignment.

Key Contenders

Tre Italiani (5) at 1-1 is the Rivelli-Mojica combination in prime position for an allowance win. At this condition level, Rivelli's horses are consistently sharp, and Tre Italiani (5) being the morning line choice at 1-1 reflects genuine class superiority. This is a horse to key in multi-race wagers rather than bet heavily on the win end at a short price.

He Gone (6) at 6-1 from trainer Eduardo Rodriguez and Aranguren Johanis represents the best value on the board against the short-priced favorite. Rodriguez runs two horses in this field — Good To Be Prince (1) and He Gone (6) — and the 6-1 price on He Gone (6) is intriguing if the stable believes it has an angle against Tre Italiani (5).

Secondary Choices

Good To Be Prince (1) at 5-1 with Felix J.E. from the Rodriguez barn could benefit from the inside post in a sprint. Felix is an experienced hand at Hawthorne and Good To Be Prince (1) could press Tre Italiani (5) into uncomfortable fractions. Strato (3) at 8-1 with Baird from trainer John Haran is a potential upset vehicle at a price. Baird knows this track and Haran occasionally surfaces a sharp runner in allowance company.

Ga Mo Tak (4) at 8-1 from trainer Heather Irion and Santos Ademar is an outside price worth including in trifectas. Irion has a history of placing horses effectively in allowance conditions when they are ready. Takeitaway (2) at 10-1 from the Boyce barn with Colon Luis H is a tough sell at the price against Tre Italiani (5) but should not be completely dismissed. Bridge Classic (7) at 12-1 from trainer Manny Perez and Hernandez O.K. is a long price that is difficult to support at this level.

Selections

Win: Tre Italiani (5) Place: He Gone (6) Show: Good To Be Prince (1)

Betting Strategy: Single Tre Italiani (5) on top in exactas with He Gone (6) and Good To Be Prince (1) underneath. The best wagering approach is using Tre Italiani (5) as a key in multi-race Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets through Races 6 and 7. A small exacta play using He Gone (6) on top with Tre Italiani (5) underneath at a 6-1 price is worth a modest investment as an upset coverage play.

RACE 7 — Post 6:41 — 1100f | T | A | Alw 31000n1x | Purse $31,000

The nightcap is the largest field on the card with ten horses going approximately five and a half furlongs on the turf in an allowance race for non-winners of one allowance. Larry Rivelli sends out two runners in Flame Dancer (3) and Spinning Glory (9), while Michele Boyce has Rietta (2) and Zee (7) in the field. Large-field turf sprints are notoriously difficult to handicap and can produce volatile results, particularly when the pace is contentious.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

With ten horses in a turf sprint, the early pace dynamics are complex. Flame Dancer (3) at 2-1 with Mojica is the clear morning line choice. Spinning Glory (9) at 4-1 gives Rivelli a second quality runner with Baird aboard. Rietta (2) at 4-1 with Hernandez O.K. from the Boyce barn is another legitimate early actor. The presence of multiple speed types in a ten-horse turf sprint could produce a contested pace, which typically benefits horses with late closing ability. Fondre (10) and La Reynita (8) both have the profile of closers who could benefit from a hot early fractions scenario.

Key Contenders

Flame Dancer (3) at 2-1 is the morning line choice and the Rivelli-Mojica combination at 2-1 in a turf sprint is difficult to dismiss. In ten-horse turf sprints, however, even the best horses can get into traffic trouble, and the 2-1 price compresses the value significantly. Flame Dancer (3) is the top selection but bettors should consider whether the price is sufficient for the risk in a large field.

Rietta (2) at 4-1 from trainer Michele Boyce and Hernandez O.K. is the most logical alternative and at twice the morning line price of Flame Dancer (3) represents clear value. Boyce with a turf-capable horse at 4-1 in the nightcap allowance should attract attention, and Hernandez O.K. is fully capable of putting Rietta (2) in the right spot from post 2.

Secondary Choices

Spinning Glory (9) at 4-1 is the second Rivelli runner with Baird in the saddle. From post 9 in a ten-horse field, Spinning Glory (9) faces the toughest post position challenge in the race, but Baird's experience on the Hawthorne turf is a mitigating factor. If pace is contested, Spinning Glory (9) could close powerfully into the mix.

Zee (7) at 8-1 from the Boyce barn with Felix J.E. is interesting as the second Boyce entry. With Hernandez O.K. on Rietta (2), Felix is the secondary jockey choice for the stable, but Zee (7) at 8-1 in a ten-horse turf sprint is the kind of price overlay that can produce big exacta and trifecta payouts. La Reynita (8) at 10-1 from Rodriguez and Aranguren is a potential closer worth including in trifectas at the price.

Longshots

Fondre (10) at 10-1 from trainer David Reid and Colon Luis H is a notable deeper price given that Colon is one of the sharper riders on the circuit. Fondre (10) from the outside post 10 will require a wide trip but Colon may work the race in such a way that Fondre (10) finds a clean run in the stretch. Mary Moonglow (1) at 12-1 from trainer Dino Dizeo and Frank Reyes draws the inside post, which is helpful, but the 12-1 price suggests limited expectations from connections. Madelyn Attack (5) at 15-1 from Shane Childers and Stanley A.O. and Tizmeonemoretime (6) at 20-1 from trainer Omar Razvi and Santos Ademar are deep longshots. Green Grace (4) at 30-1 from trainer Omar Razvi and Israel Hernandez is the longest price on the card and is a non-factor.

Selections

Win: Flame Dancer (3) Place: Rietta (2) Show: Spinning Glory (9)

Betting Strategy: In a ten-horse turf sprint nightcap, spread the trifecta widely. Use Flame Dancer (3) and Rietta (2) on top, Spinning Glory (9) and Zee (7) in the middle, and a wide spread in the third including Fondre (10), La Reynita (8), and Zee (7). A small exacta box of Flame Dancer (3), Rietta (2), and Spinning Glory (9) is the primary attack.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Oscar Mojica leads all riders on this card with seven mounts and enters May 21 as the undisputed leading jockey at the Hawthorne meet. His book includes the morning line favorite in Race 1 (EASY FAST, 2), Race 3 (CAPOVIVO, 2), Race 5 (DESERT GLOW, 1), Race 6 (TRE ITALIANI, 5), and Race 7 (FLAME DANCER, 3). That is five morning line favorites out of seven rides, which speaks to the confidence of trainers in booking him for their best horses. His win percentage at the current meet has been well above circuit average, and bettors fading Mojica across the board do so at their own risk.

Hernandez O.K. is the busiest rider apart from Mojica with six mounts today: Frontier Marshal (1) in Race 2, Rockfest (6) in Race 3, Baby Boat (5) in Race 4, April's Gem (5) in Race 5, Bridge Classic (7) in Race 6, and Rietta (2) in Race 7. Hernandez is a veteran of the Hawthorne circuit with excellent tactical awareness and is particularly dangerous on turf horses with tactical speed. His best opportunity today may come in Race 7 aboard Rietta (2) at 4-1.

E.T. Baird is the most experienced rider at Hawthorne in terms of career mounts at the track. He rides Chief Morter (4) in Race 3, Ravin's Ransom (3) in Race 4, and Spinning Glory (9) in Race 7, all for trainer Larry Rivelli. The Rivelli-Baird combination is one of the most reliable on the circuit at every level, and Baird knowing the Hawthorne turf course intimately is a key advantage in Races 3 and 7.

Colon Luis H rides in six races today and holds a book that includes Wayllen Richard (5) in Race 2, Creating Havoc (5) in Race 3, Smoken Boy (1) in Race 4, Floribunda (6) in Race 5, Takeitaway (2) in Race 6, and Fondre (10) in Race 7. Colon's best opportunity for a winner today is aboard Floribunda (6) in Race 5, where the morning line favorite should give him a straightforward trip on the turf.

Javier Tavares rides four horses today: Canyon Shadows (1) in Race 1, Verrazanointhesky (3) in Race 2, Tuff Heart (7) in Race 3, and Mary Moonglow (1) in Race 7. Tavares is a reliable circuit rider who performs best when given horses with early speed. His best shot today is Canyon Shadows (1) in the opening race.

Israel Hernandez rides Kazoom (3) in Race 3, Fever Nation (4) in Race 2, Peacock Road (3) in Race 5, and Green Grace (4) in Race 7. His most live mount is Kazoom (3) in Race 3 at 4-1.

Alexander Bendezu rides Dattts Life (3) in Race 1, Fast Jack (2) in Race 4, and Lotta Roses (2) in Race 5. His best opportunity appears to be Fast Jack (2) in Race 4.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Larry Rivelli is the dominant force at Hawthorne from a trainer's perspective and enters this card with five runners across four races. His entries include Capovivo (2) and Chief Morter (4) in Race 3, Ravin's Ransom (3) in Race 4, Tre Italiani (5) in Race 6, and Flame Dancer (3) and Spinning Glory (9) in Race 7. Rivelli's win percentage at the Hawthorne meet consistently runs above 20 percent, and his ability to place horses at the appropriate level makes his runners difficult to beat when odds are reasonable. His turf statistics are particularly strong, which bodes well for his entries in Races 3 and 7.

Eduardo Rodriguez is one of the busier trainers at the meet with four entries: Good To Be Prince (1) and He Gone (6) in Race 6, Red Moscato (2) in Race 2, Kazoom (3) in Race 3, and Desert Glow (1) in Race 5. Rodriguez has developed a strong relationship with Mojica and the fact that Mojica is not aboard either of Rodriguez's runners in Race 6 is notable — the absence of the leading rider on a trainer's horse can sometimes indicate the horse is simply using the race for experience or condition.

James DiVito sends out three runners: Easy Fast (2) in Race 1, Rockfest (6) in Race 3, and Baby Boat (5) and Eli's Promise (6) in Race 4. DiVito's record at the $5,000 claiming level is among the best at the meet, and his presence with Easy Fast (2) in Race 1 is a strong signal. The double entry in Race 4 is the DiVito angle to monitor most closely.

Michele Boyce runs in three races: Frontier Marshal (1) in Race 2, Indyville (4) in Race 4, and Rietta (2) and Zee (7) in Race 7. Boyce with two horses in the nightcap turf allowance is a barn angle worth noting, as her stable has shown a tendency to produce competitive runners in allowance turf conditions. Rietta (2) at 4-1 is the more likely Boyce winner, but Zee (7) at 8-1 deserves inclusion in exotic plays.

Hugo Rodriguez with Wayllen Richard (5) and El Mucho (6) in Race 2 presents a classic barn dilemma for bettors. The jockey assignments of Colon on Wayllen Richard (5) and Frank Reyes on El Mucho (6) give a slight nod toward Wayllen Richard (5) as the stable's preferred runner.

Joel Berndt trains Lieutenant Charm (1) in Race 3 and Floribunda (6) in Race 5. His best chance today is clearly with Floribunda (6), who enters as the overwhelming 1-1 morning line choice in the turf mile claimer.

Heather Irion trains Bad Obsession (5) in Race 1 and Ga Mo Tak (4) in Race 6. Irion is a competent trainer who occasionally surfaces a live longshot in allowance conditions. Ga Mo Tak (4) at 8-1 in Race 6 is worth tracking.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The architecture of this ten-race card lends itself to several productive multi-race structures. Below are the most actionable wagering strategies based on the analysis above.

The Pick 4 covering Races 4 through 7 is the marquee multi-race bet on this card. With Eli's Promise (6) in Race 4 as a strong single, followed by Floribunda (6) in Race 5 as a potential single at short odds, Tre Italiani (5) in Race 6 as a near-certain single, and then spreading in the ten-horse turf nightcap in Race 7, bettors can structure a manageable ticket. A base ticket using Eli's Promise (6), Floribunda (6), and Tre Italiani (5) as singles with four horses in Race 7 — Flame Dancer (3), Rietta (2), Spinning Glory (9), and Zee (7) — costs a modest amount and covers the most likely outcomes.

The Pick 3 from Race 5 through Race 7 is an excellent standalone play. Using Floribunda (6) as the anchor in Race 5, Tre Italiani (5) as the anchor in Race 6, and spreading with four horses in Race 7 creates a strong value ticket. If Floribunda (6) is at even money and Tre Italiani (5) is at 6-5, the Race 7 spread provides the necessary payoff leverage.

The best individual race value on the card is Rietta (2) in Race 7 at 4-1. In the nightcap ten-horse turf sprint, 4-1 on a Boyce runner with Hernandez O.K. in the irons represents a genuine overlay when the alternative is betting Flame Dancer (3) at what will likely be 7-5 or lower at post time. A straight win bet on Rietta (2) alongside inclusion in exactas with Flame Dancer (3) is the optimal approach.

In Race 2, the He Gone (6) angle at 4-1 from the Rodriguez barn is worth monitoring. If Wayllen Richard (5) is bet down to 3-2, a show parlay or exacta using He Gone (6) on top with Wayllen Richard (5) underneath could produce a solid return.

The morning line favorite in Race 3 — Capovivo (2) at 2-1 — will attract heavy action from bettors who simply follow the Rivelli-Mojica combination. Bettors seeking value should look at Rockfest (6) at 6-1 from the DiVito barn as an exacta play underneath Capovivo (2). A $2 exacta of Capovivo (2) over Rockfest (6) at 6-1 could return a meaningful payout compared to the standard Capovivo (2) over Chief Morter (4) or Kazoom (3) plays that will be the public's default choice.

The outstanding single play of the card is Tre Italiani (5) in Race 6. The Rivelli-Mojica combination in an allowance n1x sprint with a 1-1 morning line is as close to a structured bet as Hawthorne offers on this card. Position Tre Italiani (5) as the central key in every Pick 3 sequence through the final two races of the evening. The value generated elsewhere in the ticket by spreading in Race 7 will make the short-priced anchor worthwhile as part of a complete multi-race structure.

For superfecta players, Race 7 is the target race of the evening. A ten-horse turf sprint nightcap with multiple morning line choices in the 2-1 to 10-1 range, combined with legitimate 20-1 and 30-1 longshots, can produce substantial superfecta payouts. Structure the superfecta with Flame Dancer (3) and Rietta (2) on top, spread the second and third positions with Spinning Glory (9), Zee (7), and La Reynita (8), and use the deeper prices of Fondre (10), Mary Moonglow (1), and Tizmeonemoretime (6) in the fourth slot to capture maximum value on a modest investment.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback