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Churchill Downs hosts its sixth day of the September Meet today with an eight-race Twilight Thursday card beginning at 5:00 PM ET. This evening program represents the continuation of the track’s fall racing season, featuring a mix of claiming races, allowance conditions, and maiden competitions across dirt and turf surfaces.
Weather Forecast and Track Conditions
Current track conditions show the main dirt surface listed as Fast, with the turf course rated as Good. Weather conditions for today indicate mostly sunny skies with temperatures reaching approximately 90°F, providing ideal racing conditions for this evening’s card.
Detailed Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Claiming (6½ furlongs, Dirt)
Post Time: 5:00 PM ET
The opening claiming event features seven runners with Risk It installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite, followed by Vasa at 5/2 odds. This race appears competitive with several contenders showing recent form.
Key Contenders Analysis:
Risk It enters as the likely favorite based on recent performances and draws favorable positioning for this claiming level. Vasa presents the primary challenge with solid recent efforts that suggest competitiveness at this claiming price.
Secondary Choices:
Timing Difference at 4/1 odds and Countthebrave at 5/1 represent live longshot possibilities based on their morning line positioning.
Wagering Recommendation:
The favorite Risk It appears to offer reasonable value in the win pool, with Vasa providing exacta and trifecta coverage opportunities.
Race 2 Analysis – Maiden Special Weight (Turf)
Post Time: 5:29 PM ET | Distance: 1 Mile 110 Yards (Turf) | Purse: $120,000
Race Overview
Race 2 features eight three-year-olds and up competing in a maiden special weight event over the Churchill Downs turf course. With a substantial $120,000 purse offering $75,600 to the winner, this represents a quality maiden field with several well-bred prospects making their turf debuts or seeking their first career victory.
Key Contenders Analysis
Reveller’s Cheer (5) – 2/1 Morning Line Favorite
Trained by Chad C. Brown with Florent Geroux aboard, Reveller’s Cheer enters as the lukewarm favorite at 2/1 odds. The Brown-Geroux combination brings elite credentials to this turf maiden, particularly given Brown’s exceptional record with grass horses. This runner represents the quality expected from one of America’s premier turf trainers.
Copp (2) – 5/2 Second Choice
Michael W. McCarthy trains this son with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the mount at 5/2 odds. Racing Dudes selections favor Copp as their top pick for this race. The McCarthy barn has shown solid form during the current meet, and Ortiz Jr. provides world-class piloting. Copp shows previous earnings of $125,200, indicating competitive efforts in prior starts.
Thunder Roll (1) – 5/1
William I. Mott conditions this runner with Jaime A. Torres aboard at 5/1 morning line odds. The Mott stable brings Hall of Fame training expertise to this spot, with Thunder Roll showing $158,000 in career earnings. Torres provides capable riding and knows the Churchill Downs turf course well.
Secondary Choices
Altiplano (4) – 9/2
Cherie DeVaux trains this contender with Jose L. Ortiz riding at 9/2 odds. The Ortiz brothers continue their strong presence at Churchill Downs, with Jose providing tactical expertise that could prove valuable in this turf marathon distance.
Pirandello (8) – 6/1
Brendan P. Walsh conditions this runner with Tyler Gaffalione aboard at 6/1 odds. The Walsh barn has shown consistent form throughout the meet, and Gaffalione’s local knowledge and turf expertise make this combination dangerous at the morning line price.
Longshot Considerations
King Lee (3) – 12/1
Dale L. Romans trains this longshot with Corey J. Lanerie taking the mount at 12/1 odds. While showing longer odds, the Romans-Lanerie combination represents local connections with extensive Churchill Downs experience that could produce value at generous odds.
Courageous Clay (6) – 15/1
Michelle Lovell conditions this outsider with Colby J. Hernandez aboard at 15/1 morning line odds. As one of the longer shots in the field, this runner could provide significant exotic value if finding improvement.
Pace Analysis
This turf route should develop into a moderate pace scenario given the maiden special weight conditions and the 1 mile 110-yard distance. The extended trip allows for tactical positioning, with closers potentially holding advantages if early fractions become contested. Thunder Roll shows “Fast Leads” running style which could establish the early tempo.
Key Angles to Consider
The presence of Chad C. Brown with Reveller’s Cheer represents the strongest single angle in this maiden field. Brown’s turf prowess combined with Florent Geroux’s expertise creates a formidable partnership. However, the 2/1 morning line odds may not provide adequate value given the competitive nature of this field.
The Mott-trained Thunder Roll offers potential value at 5/1 odds, particularly if the pace develops favorably for tactical speed. Copp’s selection by Racing Dudes handicappers suggests hidden form that merits serious consideration at 5/2 odds.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Play: Copp appears to offer the best combination of value and winning chance at 5/2 odds, supported by expert handicapper selections and the strong McCarthy-Ortiz Jr. partnership.
Place/Show: Reveller’s Cheer provides safety in the place and show pools despite shorter odds, given the Brown training and Geroux riding combination.
Exotic Plays: Key Copp on top with Reveller’s Cheer, Thunder Roll, and Pirandello underneath in exacta and trifecta combinations. The 15/1 longshots Courageous Clay and Bestball provide potential value in deeper exotic structures.
Suggested Selections: Copp to win, with Reveller’s Cheer and Thunder Roll providing the primary exotic coverage in this competitive maiden special weight event.
Race 3 – Claiming (7 furlongs 110 yards, Dirt)
Post Time: 6:00 PM ET
This claiming event showcases eight runners with Gunner Bay favored at 5/2, while Classic Legacy follows at 4/1 odds. The race distance should favor horses with tactical speed and stamina.
Key Contenders Analysis:
Gunner Bay brings consistent form to this spot with jockey Jose L. Ortiz aboard for trainer Thomas M. Amoss. Classic Legacy represents value at 4/1 with Tyler Gaffalione taking the mount for Ron Moquett.
Secondary Choices:
Can’t Hush This at 9/2 with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Heart Headed at 5/1 with Jaime A. Torres both merit consideration as live threats.
Wagering Recommendation:
Gunner Bay appears appropriately favored, while Classic Legacy offers potential value in the win pool and exotic wagers.
Race 4 Analysis – Maiden Special Weight (Dirt)
Post Time: 6:30 PM ET | Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt) | Purse: $92,000
Race Overview
Race 4 presents a competitive maiden special weight event for two-year-old colts and geldings with fifteen runners competing for a substantial $92,000 purse. The winner receives $57,960, making this an attractive spot for juvenile prospects seeking their first career victory. The six-furlong sprint distance on Churchill Downs’ main track should favor horses with tactical speed and early positioning.
Key Contenders Analysis
Mo Beach Time (3) – 7/2 Morning Line Favorite
Trained by Nik G. Goodwin with Betty Jo Williams aboard, Mo Beach Time enters as the tepid favorite at 7/2 odds. This runner shows $65,200 in career earnings with a “Fast Stalker” running style that should suit the six-furlong distance. The form line of 542 indicates recent competitive efforts, though the 67 official rating suggests room for improvement. The combination provides tactical speed that could prove effective in this large juvenile field.
Race Ready (4) – 5/1 Second Choice
Norm W. Casse trains this contender with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the mount at 5/1 morning line odds. Racing Dudes selections favor Race Ready as their top pick for this race at 6/1 odds. The Casse-Ortiz Jr. partnership represents elite connections, with Ortiz Jr. showing strong statistics of 179 mounts with 22% win rate and 58% in-the-money percentage. This combination suggests serious winning intentions.
Secondary Choices
Orville’s Map (2) – 11/1
Dallas Stewart trains this runner with Julien R. Leparoux aboard at 11/1 morning line odds. Stewart shows solid statistics with 70 mounts, 19% win rate, and 53% in-the-money percentage. Leparoux provides experienced piloting with 80 mounts, 14% win rate, and 38% in-the-money percentage. This combination could provide value at generous odds.
Lex Go Honey (1) – 11/1
Cherie DeVaux conditions this contender with Axel Concepcion riding at 11/1 odds. DeVaux shows promising statistics with 34 mounts, 24% win rate, and 56% in-the-money percentage. The combination draws the rail position, which could prove advantageous in a large field if early pace develops favorably.
Longshot Considerations
The large field of fifteen runners creates opportunities for longshots to emerge, particularly if pace dynamics favor closers or if early speed collapses. Runners trained by connections showing solid statistics but carrying longer odds merit exotic consideration given the substantial purse and competitive nature of juvenile maidens.
Pace Analysis
With fifteen two-year-olds competing over six furlongs, this race should develop into a contested pace scenario. Mo Beach Time’s “Fast Stalker” style suggests tactical positioning just off the early pace. The large field creates potential for pace pressure among early speed types, possibly setting up opportunities for horses with tactical speed or closing ability.
Key Angles to Consider
The presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. on Race Ready represents the strongest single jockey angle in this field, given his exceptional statistics and the Norm Casse training.
The purse size of $92,000 indicates serious connections with quality prospects, suggesting several runners possess the ability to graduate at this level. Two-year-old maiden races often produce surprising results as juveniles continue their development.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Play: Race Ready offers the best combination of connections and expert support at reasonable 5/1 to 6/1 odds, with the Casse-Ortiz Jr. partnership providing confidence.
Place/Show: Mo Beach Time provides safety in the place and show pools as the morning line favorite with demonstrated earnings and tactical speed.
Exotic Plays: Key Race Ready with Mo Beach Time, Orville’s Map, and other longer-priced contenders underneath in exacta and trifecta combinations. The large field creates potential for significant exotic payouts if longshots find the board.
Suggested Selections: Race Ready to win with Mo Beach Time providing primary exotic coverage in this competitive two-year-old maiden special weight event. The combination of expert handicapper support and elite jockey connections makes Race Ready the logical top choice in a challenging but potentially rewarding spot.
Race 5 – Starter Allowance (6½ furlongs, Dirt)
Post Time: 6:59 PM ET
The starter allowance conditions attract eight runners with Payne leading the odds at 5/2, followed by Air Combat at 3/1. This race should produce competitive action given the allowance conditions.
Key Contenders Analysis:
Payne enters with favorable recent form that suggests readiness for this spot. Air Combat with Irad Ortiz Jr. provides strong competition from a quality barn.
Secondary Choices:
Uncashed at 7/2 and Burninhunkoflove at 4/1 both show capabilities that could produce upsets in this competitive field.
Wagering Recommendation:
Payne appears to offer reasonable value as the favorite, while Air Combat provides solid exotic play coverage.
Race 6 Analysis – Maiden Special Weight (Dirt)
Distance: 7 Furlongs (Dirt) | Purse: $120,000
Race Overview
Race 6 presents a competitive maiden special weight event for two-year-old fillies with ten runners competing for a substantial $120,000 purse. The winner receives $75,600, making this an attractive spot for juvenile filly prospects seeking their first career victory. The seven-furlong distance on Churchill Downs’ main track should favor fillies with tactical speed and the stamina to sustain their efforts through the stretch.
Key Contenders Analysis
Kenz (1) – 7/5 Morning Line Favorite
Trained by Steven Asmussen with jockey connections yet to be determined, Kenz enters as the heavy favorite at 7/5 odds. TwinSpires expert analysis specifically notes that Kenz “has finished second in her first two starts”, indicating consistent form and readiness to graduate. The Asmussen training provides elite connections, and the morning line suggests handicappers view this filly as clearly superior to her competition. Sports from the Basement selections rank Kenz as their top choice with an expected value of 2/1.
Amended Dreamer (4) – 6/1 Second Choice
Trained by Jena M. Antonucci with Adam Beschizza taking the mount, Amended Dreamer represents the primary challenge to the favorite at 6/1 odds. Recent form shows an 18/1 effort at Saratoga where she finished 6th of 7, beaten 15¾ lengths behind Tennessee Belle in a 6-furlong maiden. Despite the poor showing, the step up to seven furlongs may suit this filly’s developing stamina.
Bounce (8) – 6/1 Co-Second Choice
William I. Mott trains this contender with Jaime A. Torres aboard at 6/1 morning line odds. Recent form includes an 8th place finish at Kentucky Downs in a turf maiden, beaten 11½ lengths. The surface switch from turf to dirt may provide improvement, and the Mott training represents Hall of Fame expertise with two-year-old development.
Secondary Choices
Bourbon Notes (6) – 6/1
This filly carries 6/1 odds with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. taking the mount. Recent form shows a 7th place finish at Ellis Park in a six-furlong maiden, beaten 18½ lengths. The step up in distance to seven furlongs may help this runner find her preferred trip.
Statutory (3) – 8/1
A daughter of Tiz The Law out of Agreeable Miss carries 8/1 morning line odds. The breeding suggests potential for improvement, particularly with the stamina influence of Tiz The Law bloodlines in this seven-furlong test.
Raspberry (7) – 8/1
This Medaglia D’oro filly out of Bramble Berry represents quality breeding at 8/1 odds. The Medaglia D’oro sire line suggests potential for route racing, making the seven-furlong distance potentially ideal for this newcomer.
Longshot Considerations
No Time Left (5) – 15/1
This Practical Joke filly out of Gambiarra offers longshot potential at 15/1 morning line odds. First-time starters from quality bloodlines can produce surprising results in maiden company.
Supersonic Agenda (10) – 30/1
A Known Agenda filly out of Concord Eclipse represents the longest price in the field at 30/1. While facing a difficult task, the breeding suggests stamina that could emerge at this distance.
Pace Analysis
With ten two-year-old fillies competing over seven furlongs, this race should develop into a moderate pace scenario. Kenz’s consistent placings suggest tactical ability that should position her favorably throughout the race. The distance allows for tactical positioning, with fillies showing early speed potentially holding advantages if fractions remain reasonable.
Key Angles to Consider
The presence of Steven Asmussen training the heavy favorite Kenz represents the strongest single angle in this maiden field. Asmussen’s expertise with two-year-old development, combined with Kenz’s consistent form showing two seconds in two starts, creates a compelling favorite.
The substantial $120,000 purse suggests serious connections with quality prospects throughout the field. Two-year-old filly maidens often feature improving types that can produce upsets as they continue their development.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Play: Kenz appears appropriately favored given her consistent form and elite training, though the 7/5 odds provide limited value for win betting.
Place/Show: Kenz offers strong safety in place and show pools given her proven ability to hit the board consistently.
Value Play: Amended Dreamer at 6/1 represents potential value if the Saratoga effort can be forgiven and the distance stretch proves beneficial.
Exotic Plays: Key Kenz on top with Amended Dreamer, Bounce, and Bourbon Notes underneath in exacta and trifecta combinations. The longer-priced fillies like No Time Left and Raspberry provide potential value in deeper exotic structures given their quality breeding.
Suggested Selections: Kenz to win based on consistent form and elite training connections, with Amended Dreamer and Bounce providing the primary exotic coverage in this competitive two-year-old maiden special weight event. The combination of proven form and expert trainer guidance makes Kenz the logical top choice despite short odds in this late-night feature for juvenile fillies.
Race 7 Analysis – Allowance Optional Claiming
Distance: 1⅛ Miles (Dirt) | Purse: $134,000
Race Overview
Race 7 features a competitive allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds and upward with nine runners competing for a substantial $134,000 purse. The winner receives $84,420, making this the richest race on the card. The conditions specify horses that have never won $18,000 twice other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state bred races, or which have never won three races, with an $80,000 claiming option.
Key Contenders Analysis
Duke of Duval (8) – Steven Asmussen Training
Trained by Steven Asmussen with Keith J. Asmussen taking the mount, Duke of Duval represents elite connections in this allowance field. The Asmussen stable brings Hall of Fame training expertise to this spot, with recent form showing competitive efforts at this level. Asmussen’s prowess with older horses in allowance conditions makes this runner a serious threat in the late-night feature.
Money Supply (9) – Irad Ortiz Jr. Mount
Joe Sharp trains this contender with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, creating a formidable partnership. Ortiz Jr. continues his strong presence throughout the Churchill Downs card, bringing world-class piloting to this allowance test. The 1⅛-mile distance should suit horses with tactical versatility, and this combination provides confidence for the route challenge.
El Magnifico (4) – Richard Dutrow Jr. Training
Richard E. Dutrow Jr. conditions this runner with Jose L. Ortiz taking the mount. The Ortiz brothers maintain multiple mounts across today’s program, with Jose providing tactical expertise that could prove valuable in this competitive allowance field. Dutrow’s experience with allowance-level horses creates another serious contender.
Secondary Choices
Sir Greylind (1) – Kenneth McPeek Stable
Kenneth G. McPeek trains this runner with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. aboard. The McPeek barn has shown consistent form during the current meet, and Hernandez Jr. provides local knowledge that could prove advantageous in this route test. The rail position may offer tactical advantages if pace develops favorably.
Resilience (7) – William Mott Training
William I. Mott conditions this contender with Jaime A. Torres riding. The Mott stable brings Hall of Fame training credentials to this allowance event, with Torres providing capable piloting. Mott’s expertise with route horses makes this combination worth serious consideration.
Stowaway (6) – Tyler Gaffalione Mount
D. Whitworth Beckman trains this runner with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. Gaffalione continues his strong presence at Churchill Downs, bringing tactical expertise and local knowledge to this allowance challenge. The combination represents quality connections at this competitive level.
Longshot Considerations
Bernin Hot (3) – Luis Saez Riding
Rohan G. Crichton trains this contender with Luis Saez taking the mount. Saez provides experienced piloting that could uncover improvement in this allowance spot. The combination merits exotic consideration given the competitive nature of allowance fields.
Mackman (2) – Matt Shirer Training
Matt A. Shirer conditions this runner with Adam Beschizza aboard. While facing tough competition, allowance races can produce surprising results as horses find their preferred conditions and distances.
Pace Analysis
The 1⅛-mile distance should develop into a moderate pace scenario given the allowance conditions and the quality of this nine-horse field. The route distance allows for tactical positioning throughout, with horses showing versatility potentially holding advantages. Early speed horses may find opportunities if fractions remain reasonable, while closers could benefit if pace pressure develops among the front-runners.
Key Angles to Consider
The presence of Steven Asmussen training Duke of Duval represents the strongest single trainer angle in this allowance field. Asmussen’s exceptional record with older horses in allowance conditions, combined with family connections through Keith J. Asmussen’s riding, creates a compelling partnership.
The Irad Ortiz Jr. mount on Money Supply provides the premier jockey angle, given his outstanding statistics and tactical expertise. The 1⅛-mile distance suits horses with routing ability, making tactical speed and stamina crucial factors.
The substantial $134,000 purse indicates serious connections throughout the field, suggesting multiple runners possess the class and ability to compete effectively at this allowance level.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Play: Money Supply offers the best combination of jockey expertise and training connections with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Joe Sharp, providing confidence in this competitive allowance field.
Value Play: Duke of Duval merits serious consideration given the Asmussen training credentials and family connections through the riding assignment.
Place/Show: Both Money Supply and Duke of Duval provide safety in the place and show pools given their quality connections and proven ability at this level.
Exotic Plays: Key Money Supply and Duke of Duval on top with El Magnifico, Sir Greylind, and Resilience underneath in exacta and trifecta combinations. The competitive nature of allowance fields creates potential for significant exotic payouts if longshots find the board.
Suggested Selections: Money Supply to win based on the Ortiz Jr. riding and proven route ability, with Duke of Duval providing primary exotic coverage in this feature allowance optional claiming event. The combination of elite jockey talent and proven training expertise makes Money Supply the logical top choice in this late-night showcase for older horses seeking allowance-level success.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Several prominent jockeys feature throughout today’s card, including Irad Ortiz Jr., who maintains multiple mounts across the program. Tyler Gaffalione also appears on multiple races, bringing his expertise to competitive spots. Corey Lanerie takes the mount on Archie The Giza in Race 3, representing local knowledge and experience.
The jockey colony at Churchill Downs continues to demonstrate high-quality riding with these accomplished pilots providing strong partnerships with their respective trainers.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Prominent trainers represented on today’s card include Steven Asmussen, who saddles Kenz in Race 6. Thomas M. Amoss appears with Gunner Bay in Race 3, bringing his consistent approach to claiming competition. Ron Moquett trains Classic Legacy, representing another quality barn in the claiming ranks.
These trainers bring extensive experience and proven success records to their respective entries, suggesting competitive preparation across the card.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Today’s card presents several interesting wagering opportunities, particularly in the claiming races where form analysis can provide advantages. The Super High Five carries a $5,044 carryover, creating additional incentive for exotic wagers.
Recommended Strategies:
Focus on races with clear pace scenarios and established form lines. The claiming events offer opportunities to identify value through class analysis and recent performance evaluation.
Value Plays:
Classic Legacy in Race 3 appears to offer potential value at 4/1 odds given the trainer and jockey combination. Longshot opportunities exist in deeper fields where pace dynamics may create upset scenarios.
Previous Day Racing Highlights
Yesterday’s September 17 card at Churchill Downs featured competitive action across multiple divisions. Grand Luxx captured Race 7, a two-year-old maiden event over six furlongs, prevailing as the 9/4 favorite. The race attracted fifteen runners and produced a $57,960 winner’s share, demonstrating the quality of competition during the September Meet.
The previous day’s results provide context for today’s handicapping, particularly regarding track conditions and jockey/trainer performance patterns that may influence this evening’s outcomes.
