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Assiniboia Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the June 17, 2026 card

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Race Day Overview — Assiniboia Downs | Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Assiniboia Downs runs an eight-race Wednesday card with first post at 8:30 AM local time (Central). The card is anchored by claiming events ranging from $3,000 maiden conditions up through $12,500 open claimers, with purses topping out at $17,000 for the two open claiming routes. All eight races are contested on the main dirt track. The field sizes are competitive throughout, with Races 6 and 7 offering the largest fields of the day at eleven and ten runners respectively, creating excellent opportunities for exotic wagering.

The card leans heavily toward geldings and older horses in the allowance-claiming ranks, typical of a prairie circuit mid-season Wednesday program. Jerry Gourneau leads the trainer colony in sheer volume of starters today, saddling runners in seven of the eight races. Antonio Whitehall and Javaniel R. Patterson figure as the two busiest jockeys on the afternoon, each with mounts across nearly every race. Keith Pederson, Carl Anderson, and Wendy Anderson round out the active trainer presence with multiple runners.

No significant scratches have been reported as of the morning of June 17. Bettors should confirm final field changes at the windows before wagering, particularly in Races 6 and 7 where large fields can see late scratches alter pace dynamics considerably.

Weather and Track Conditions

Winnipeg is forecast to see partly cloudy skies on June 17 with temperatures in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius (approximately 73–76°F). No significant precipitation is expected through post time, and the track is anticipated to be listed at fast. Early June at Assiniboia can see the rail zone firm up quickly after recent dry weather, and given the run of warm days preceding this card, the inside path is expected to be firm and true. Bettors should check the official track variant at the paddock or tote board prior to Race 1, as morning track crew work can alter the footing. If the track is listed fast with no moisture added, expect the surface to favor horses that can establish early position, as firm Assiniboia dirt typically produces true pace dynamics rather than grinding come-from-behind results.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Assiniboia Downs is a tight five-eighths-mile oval with relatively short stretches. On a fast track, the rail and inside posts carry a modest advantage in sprints, though the tight turns can also compress speed horses who work extremely hard to the first turn. In the route races (1650 feet equals approximately one mile and seventy yards), the one-mile-plus distance on this oval means horses break nearly out of the chute into the first turn, making inside posts genuinely advantageous — horses drawn in Posts 1 through 3 in route races can save significant ground without being slammed into the rail.

In sprints at 1210 feet (approximately six furlongs), the bias is less dramatic, though early speed horses that can settle into a stalking position off the pace have shown a slight edge late in the season as the rail deepens. On a fresh fast surface in June, pure front-runners are viable, but horses with two-turn experience or the ability to rate behind the early pace and accelerate through the stretch have historically performed well at this oval.

Post position 1 in the routes today deserves attention in Races 3, 4, and 8. In large sprint fields like Race 6, outside posts above Post 8 face a significant disadvantage in terms of first-turn position, and the crowd-sourced morning line odds of 25-1 or longer for Posts 9 through 11 in that race reflect this reality.

RACE 1 — Post 8:30 — 1210f | D | AO | OClm 12500b | BUM | Purse $17,000

Six older mares (AO designation) going six furlongs in an open claiming event at the $12,500 bottom level. This is a sprint for fillies and mares, and the BUM suffix indicates the Manitoba-bred bonus applies. The morning line has I'm In Control (POST 3) and Smoocherro (POST 5) as co-favorites at 2-1, with Girl From De Bayou (POST 6) next at 4-1.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

With two co-favorites at 2-1 sharing the morning line, the pace scenario will define this race. I'm In Control (POST 3) under Sven Balroop and Smoocherro (POST 5) under Shavon Townsend figure to be the two horses that shape the early fractions. If both are natural front-runners, a contested early pace could set up a closer. The middle post draw for I'm In Control (POST 3) offers a clean path to the front without burning excess energy in traffic. Smoocherro (POST 5) from Post 5 will have to make an early move to establish position or sit off the pace. Girl From De Bayou (POST 6) from the outside post is likely to settle off the pace and will need a contested early tempo to make her move meaningful. Sophia's Storm (POST 1) from the rail is an unknown pace factor. Mystic Song (POST 4) will likely be forwardly placed given her morning line positioning.

Key Contenders

I'm In Control (POST 3) draws the second post from the inside and is the morning line co-favorite at 2-1. Trainer Keith Pederson is a competent conditioner on the Assiniboia circuit, and Sven Balroop is a capable rider who knows the oval well. At the $12,500 open claiming level for mares, this horse appears properly placed. The middle draw is clean, and if she can establish a controlling position in the first quarter, she will be difficult to catch. She is the logical single for win wagering.

Smoocherro (POST 5) is the other 2-1 shot and trained by Eugene Burns with Shavon Townsend in the irons. Burns has a consistent stable and Townsend is one of the more active riders on the Assiniboia circuit. The Post 5 draw is workable in a six-horse field, and Smoocherro (POST 5) figures to be close to the pace. The question is whether this horse's best effort matches I'm In Control (POST 3) at this level.

Secondary Choices

Girl From De Bayou (POST 6) at 4-1 is the main value play. Trainer Elton Dickey and jockey Antonio Whitehall are a respectable combination on this circuit, and the outside draw in a six-horse sprint is not the liability it would be in a larger field. If the two favorites engage each other through fast early fractions, Girl From De Bayou (POST 6) could be the one running best late. At 4-1, she offers legitimate value in the exacta underneath the favorites.

Mystic Song (POST 4) at 5-1 with Javaniel R. Patterson is worth a look. Carl Anderson trains a consistent stable, and Patterson is one of the sharper jockeys on the grounds. The Post 4 draw allows for a stalking position, and if Mystic Song (POST 4) can sit second or third through the early pace, she could make a bold run in the final furlong.

Longshots

Sophia's Storm (POST 1) at 8-1 trained by Lise Pruitt and ridden by Damario Bynoe draws the rail. Rail-drawn mares in sprints at Assiniboia are not automatic overlays, and the 8-1 morning line reflects a distance from the top horses. Payton's Indian (POST 2) at 12-1 with trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey Tyrone Nelson is a significant longshot. Even with Gourneau's volume of starters, a 12-1 morning line in a six-horse field suggests this mare is well below the competitive upper tier here.

Selections

Win: I'm In Control (POST 3) Place: Smoocherro (POST 5) Show: Girl From De Bayou (POST 6)

Betting strategy: Key I'm In Control (POST 3) on top of exactas with Smoocherro (POST 5) and Girl From De Bayou (POST 6). Use I'm In Control (POST 3) and Smoocherro (POST 5) as the top two legs of a trifecta box with Girl From De Bayou (POST 6) and Mystic Song (POST 4).

RACE 2 — Post 9:00 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 5500 | BUM | Purse $13,200

Seven-horse sprint at $5,500 claiming for fillies and mares, also carrying the Manitoba-bred bonus. The morning line has La Gata Salvaje (POST 3) as a heavy 1-1 favorite, with Indyetta (POST 1) and Big Tippa (POST 2) both at 4-1. This is a deep lower-level claiming sprint where the heavy favorite's odds could compress the exotics significantly.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

La Gata Salvaje (POST 3) at 1-1 trained by Chance Dales and ridden by Javaniel R. Patterson is the prohibitive favorite, and the Post 3 draw gives this horse every advantage in a seven-mare sprint. If she is the lone speed or a dominant front-runner, the race is likely over after the first turn. Indyetta (POST 1) from the rail under Kerron Khelawan could press the pace from the inside. Big Tippa (POST 2) under Devante Prescod is right on the inside as well. With three horses potentially fighting for position through the first turn, if the pace heats up early, closers like She's My Niece (POST 7) could benefit.

Key Contenders

La Gata Salvaje (POST 3) is the overwhelming morning line favorite and warrants respect despite the short price. At 1-1, she is not playable for win alone in most handicapping approaches, but in exotics she is the logical top choice. Trainer Chance Dales and jockey Javaniel R. Patterson are a sharp combination, and Patterson's book of quality mounts today suggests connections have confidence in this horse. If she breaks alertly from Post 3 and establishes the lead through moderate fractions, she wins with ease.

Secondary Choices

Indyetta (POST 1) at 4-1 with trainer Cindy Krasner and jockey Kerron Khelawan is the most logical upset candidate. Krasner runs a tight operation at Assiniboia, and Khelawan is among the more reliable veterans on the grounds. The rail draw gives Indyetta (POST 1) a clear path early in a seven-horse field, and if she can match La Gata Salvaje (POST 3) through the first quarter, she could outfinish the favorite if the pace is contested.

Big Tippa (POST 2) at 4-1 trained by Tom Gardipy Jr. and ridden by Devante Prescod is another legitimate contender. Gardipy is an experienced horseman on the Manitoba circuit, and Big Tippa (POST 2) has the post position to be involved early. In a race where the favorite may need to work to establish position against rail rivals, Big Tippa (POST 2) is a logical part-wheel companion.

Longshots

She's My Niece (POST 7) at 7-1 trained by William Tourangeau and ridden by Antonio Whitehall comes from the outside post and will need pace to set up for a late run. In a race dominated by a heavy favorite and a pair of 4-1 shots, a 7-1 closer could offer value in the trifecta if the early pace is genuinely contested. Regal Rumor (POST 4) at 6-1 with trainer Steven Gaskin and jockey Christopher Roy Mamdeen is not entirely without a chance, but the morning line suggests she is a tier below the top three. Let Freedom Bling (POST 5) at 15-1 and Jackie Flash (POST 6) at 12-1, both trained by Jerry Gourneau, are long prices in a short field and are best used as deeper trifecta fillers only.

Selections

Win: La Gata Salvaje (POST 3) Place: Indyetta (POST 1) Show: Big Tippa (POST 2)

Betting strategy: Given the short price on La Gata Salvaje (POST 3), focus exotic money on exactas pairing her with Indyetta (POST 1) and Big Tippa (POST 2). A small win bet on Indyetta (POST 1) at 4-1 is justified as an upset play. For trifectas, use La Gata Salvaje (POST 3) on top, wheel Indyetta (POST 1) and Big Tippa (POST 2) in second, and She's My Niece (POST 7) and Regal Rumor (POST 4) in third.

RACE 3 — Post 9:25 — 1650f | D | AO | OClm 12500b | BUN | Purse $17,000

Seven older horses going the route distance of approximately one mile and seventy yards in an open claiming event at $12,500. The BUN designation indicates the Manitoba-bred bonus applies for non-winners. This is the first route race on the card and the highest-quality event of the early portion of the program. Hey Big Un (POST 3) is the morning line favorite at 2-1.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

Route races at Assiniboia are won by horses that can settle into a comfortable stalking trip through the long backstretch and then fire in the final quarter. Hey Big Un (POST 3) from Post 3 under Damario Bynoe is ideally positioned to press or stalk the pace. Bossy Holiday (POST 7) at 3-1 from the outside post under Ciera Pruitt will need to find her position early or she will be spotted too much ground. Brooklyn Alley Cat (POST 6) at 4-1 under Dario Dalrymple for trainer Jerry Gourneau likely rates as a pace-presser or stalker. Valley Victory (POST 5) at 6-1 for Carl Anderson adds another mid-pack figure to the equation. Pay My Way (POST 1) and Nu Soup For Baby (POST 2) at 15-1 each are long shots that may show speed early to set things up for the closers.

Key Contenders

Hey Big Un (POST 3) is the morning line choice at 2-1 for trainer Steve Keplin Jr. and jockey Damario Bynoe. The Post 3 draw in a one-turn route at Assiniboia is excellent. Bynoe is a capable circuit rider, and Keplin has horses ready to fire when it matters. At 2-1 in a seven-horse route, this is a legitimate single if the horse has demonstrated route ability.

Bossy Holiday (POST 7) at 3-1 trained by Lise Pruitt with her daughter Ciera Pruitt in the irons is an intriguing family operation. Pruitt has multiple starters today, which suggests a horse barn in good form. The outside draw in a route is workable at Assiniboia because of the chute configuration, and Bossy Holiday (POST 7) could prove to be the most versatile horse in this field if she can settle behind the pace and fire late.

Secondary Choices

Brooklyn Alley Cat (POST 6) at 4-1 is Jerry Gourneau's best hope in this race. Under Dario Dalrymple, this horse will be professionally placed and given every opportunity to be competitive. Gourneau's high volume of starters today means his stable is running hot, and Brooklyn Alley Cat (POST 6) at 4-1 with a clean trip could hit the board easily.

Valley Victory (POST 5) at 6-1 under Shavon Townsend for Carl Anderson is a workmanlike route runner at this level. Post 5 is a middle draw in a seven-horse field, which gives the horse options. Anderson and Townsend are a reliable combination, and 6-1 represents mild value.

Longshots

The Ronald (POST 4) at 10-1 under Neville Stephenson for trainer Jason Homer is an extreme longshot in terms of the morning line. Stephenson is a journeyman rider, and Homer is not among the top trainers on the circuit. Pay My Way (POST 1) at 15-1 under Antonio Whitehall for Charlene Miller could show early speed from the rail and set the pace for others. Nu Soup For Baby (POST 2) at 15-1 for Brian Phillips under Kerron Khelawan is another deep longshot with little morning line support, though Khelawan can occasionally steal a race at a price.

Selections

Win: Hey Big Un (POST 3) Place: Bossy Holiday (POST 7) Show: Brooklyn Alley Cat (POST 6)

Betting strategy: Hey Big Un (POST 3) is the logical win single. Exacta key: Hey Big Un (POST 3) over Bossy Holiday (POST 7), Brooklyn Alley Cat (POST 6), and Valley Victory (POST 5). Trifecta: Hey Big Un (POST 3) on top, Bossy Holiday (POST 7) and Brooklyn Alley Cat (POST 6) in second, all in third. Bossy Holiday (POST 7) at 3-1 is worth a small win play as well given the family-operation angle with the Pruitts.

RACE 4 — Post 9:50 — 1650f | D | C | Clm 3000n1y | BUN | Purse $10,000

Eight-horse field at the $3,000 claiming level for horses that have not won a race in the past year. This is the most competitive field in terms of depth for the lower claiming ranks, and the 3000n1y condition filters for horses that have shown ability but have struggled to win recently. Oregon County (POST 4) is the 2-1 morning line choice, Crossati (POST 8) is 3-1, and Mister K (POST 3) is 4-1. This is also a route at 1650 feet.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

Eight horses going the route distance at $3,000 claiming creates a complex pace scenario. Oregon County (POST 4) under S. Chickeness for trainer Jerry Gourneau has the tactical advantage of the middle draw and morning line favoritism. Crossati (POST 8) under Javaniel R. Patterson for Wendy Anderson faces an outside draw that could mean some early ground loss. Mister K (POST 3) from Post 3 under Roger Hewitt for Sherry Laing is well placed if this horse needs to stalk. Shabam (POST 2) under Damario Bynoe for Wendy Anderson gives that barn a second chance in the race and could be an early pace factor. Frisco Kid (POST 7) at 30-1 is a throwout at any conventional price.

Key Contenders

Oregon County (POST 4) at 2-1 is Gourneau's logical top entry in this race. The Post 4 draw in an eight-horse route is favorable, and Chickeness will have this horse positioned to make a winning bid. Gourneau manages a high-volume stable efficiently, and at the $3,000 non-winner-of-one-year level, his runner has been placed precisely. A contested pace from the outside horses could make Oregon County (POST 4) even more dangerous if he is able to conserve energy while others battle.

Crossati (POST 8) at 3-1 for Wendy Anderson and Javaniel R. Patterson is a strong contender despite the wide draw. Patterson is a polished jockey who can navigate traffic, and Wendy Anderson runs three horses in today's card, suggesting overall barn confidence. Crossati (POST 8) may need to work hard early from Post 8 in a route to save ground, but if Patterson gets a clean trip along the rail after the first turn, this horse's final quarter could be potent.

Secondary Choices

Mister K (POST 3) at 4-1 under Roger Hewitt for Sherry Laing is the third choice and deserves respect. The Post 3 draw is ideal in a route, and Hewitt is a capable journeyman who knows this oval. At 4-1, Mister K (POST 3) offers the best price among the top three choices and is the value selection in this spot.

Shabam (POST 2) at 6-1 is the second Anderson entry and will be ridden by Damario Bynoe. Two entries from the same barn in a short field (Frankie's Girl (POST 1) is the 20-1 Wendy Anderson horse) can split the wagering pool, but Bynoe on Shabam (POST 2) suggests this is the more serious of the two lower-price Anderson entries. At 6-1, Shabam (POST 2) is worth including in exactas and trifectas.

Longshots

Free Maker (POST 6) at 8-1 for Fred Rawson and Antonio Whitehall is a mid-level longshot in a field where the top three are closely grouped. Poderoso Equs (POST 5) at 10-1 for Tom Gardipy Jr. and Tyrone Nelson is another potential trifecta filler. Frankie's Girl (POST 1) at 20-1 for Wendy Anderson and Kerron Khelawan is a massive longshot, and the 20-1 morning line suggests she is well below the other two Anderson entries in terms of ability. Frisco Kid (POST 7) at 30-1 for Norbert Keshane and Shavon Townsend is a throwout.

Selections

Win: Oregon County (POST 4) Place: Crossati (POST 8) Show: Mister K (POST 3)

Betting strategy: This is an excellent trifecta race. Box Oregon County (POST 4), Crossati (POST 8), and Mister K (POST 3) in a trifecta for coverage. Add Shabam (POST 2) as a fourth horse in a partial box or as a fourth-place filler in superfectas. Exacta: Oregon County (POST 4) over Crossati (POST 8) and Mister K (POST 3).

RACE 5 — Post 10:15 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 5000n4l | BUM | Purse $10,300

Eight horses going six furlongs in a $5,000 claiming sprint for horses that have not won four lifetime races. The n4l condition creates an interesting class filter. Peterson Landing (POST 6) is the morning line chalk at 1-1, with Just The Thing (POST 1) at 4-1 and Wings Of A Sparrow (POST 3) at 5-1 as the next best-priced horses.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

Peterson Landing (POST 6) at 1-1 under Antonio Whitehall for trainer Keith Pederson is the overwhelming morning line favorite in a sprint with a BUM (Manitoba-bred bonus for mares). The heavy chalk from Post 6 in an eight-horse sprint raises the question of whether this horse can overcome a middle-outside draw while managing the pace scenario. Just The Thing (POST 1) from the rail under Damario Bynoe for Steven Gaskin could press or set the pace. Wings Of A Sparrow (POST 3) under Rachaad Knights for Elton Dickey is a mid-draw factor. B C Christie (POST 4) at 6-1 could also be involved early. If Peterson Landing (POST 6) is a dominant front-runner, the race ends there. If not, Just The Thing (POST 1) from the rail could be dangerous.

Key Contenders

Peterson Landing (POST 6) at 1-1 is the morning line chalk and must be respected accordingly. Trainer Keith Pederson also saddles I'm In Control (POST 3) in Race 1, and if that horse fires, it suggests Pederson's barn is sharp. Antonio Whitehall riding the 1-1 shot further underscores confidence in this horse. Despite the short price, Peterson Landing (POST 6) is the logical play in exotics as the top key.

Just The Thing (POST 1) at 4-1 is the main challenger. Trainer Steven Gaskin also runs Mystery Dance (POST 8) in this race, giving the barn two shots. Just The Thing (POST 1) from the rail with Damario Bynoe is a horse worth taking seriously at 4-1. The rail draw in a six-furlong sprint at Assiniboia is advantageous, and Bynoe can use the position to set a clean pace or sit just off the leader.

Secondary Choices

Wings Of A Sparrow (POST 3) at 5-1 for trainer Elton Dickey and jockey Rachaad Knights is another legitimate contender. Knights is a capable jockey and Post 3 in an eight-horse sprint is workable. At 5-1, Wings Of A Sparrow (POST 3) represents the best value among the secondary choices.

B C Christie (POST 4) at 6-1 for Demetris Topouzis and Christopher Roy Mamdeen is a mid-draw horse that could be placed stalking the pace. Topouzis and Mamdeen are a competent combination.

Longshots

Spunoutofcontrol (POST 5) at 8-1 for Lise Pruitt and Matthew Bennett is a mid-level longshot. With Pruitt running multiple horses today, Spunoutofcontrol (POST 5) is less likely to be her primary focus. Mystery Dance (POST 8) at 20-1 for Steven Gaskin and Sven Balroop is a clear second-string entry for that barn. Stilettos Only (POST 2) at 15-1 for Jessica Bell and Kerron Khelawan is a heavy longshot in a field dominated by the morning line chalk. Done That (POST 7) at 25-1 for Robert Maybin and S. Chickeness is a throwout.

Selections

Win: Peterson Landing (POST 6) Place: Just The Thing (POST 1) Show: Wings Of A Sparrow (POST 3)

Betting strategy: Use Peterson Landing (POST 6) as a single in pick sequences. Exacta: Peterson Landing (POST 6) over Just The Thing (POST 1) and Wings Of A Sparrow (POST 3). Given the heavy chalk, the best exotic value is in the trifecta using Peterson Landing (POST 6) on top, Just The Thing (POST 1) and Wings Of A Sparrow (POST 3) in second, and B C Christie (POST 4) and Spunoutofcontrol (POST 5) in third.

RACE 6 — Post 10:40 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 10000n3l | BUN | Purse $15,200

Eleven horses go six-and-a-half furlongs at $10,000 claiming for horses that have not won three lifetime races. This is the largest field of the day and offers the most complex pace and wagering dynamics. Call The Cavalry (POST 6) is the morning line favorite at 2-1, with Makena's Joy (POST 9) at 4-1 and Colonel Mustard (POST 2) at 5-1 as the next choices. The large field and distance of 1320 feet (approximately six and a half furlongs) create a genuine test for non-winner conditions.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

Eleven horses in a six-and-a-half-furlong sprint at Assiniboia creates a potentially chaotic first turn. Call The Cavalry (POST 6) from the middle of the field at 2-1 for trainer Craig Robert Smith and jockey Rachaad Knights will need a clean break to establish position. Colonel Mustard (POST 2) from Post 2 under Shavon Townsend for Carl Anderson is ideally drawn to press or set the pace. J L Copper (POST 1) from the rail under Antonio Whitehall for Jared Brown is another inside contender. Outside posts like Brinson (POST 10) at 25-1 and Shankadopolous (POST 11) at 30-1 face a severe first-turn disadvantage in an eleven-horse field at this oval. The inside horses will be given every advantage by the configuration, and outside closers will need extraordinary luck to find room.

Key Contenders

Call The Cavalry (POST 6) at 2-1 is the morning line choice. Trainer Craig Robert Smith and jockey Rachaad Knights are a sharp combination, and the Post 6 draw in an eleven-horse sprint allows for a natural mid-pack stalking position. In a large field at this level, the horse with the most tactical versatility wins, and Call The Cavalry (POST 6) profiles as the most versatile runner in the field.

Makena's Joy (POST 9) at 4-1 for Demetris Topouzis and Javaniel R. Patterson is the second choice and is a serious contender. Patterson is one of the top riders on the grounds, and Topouzis has a good record placing horses competitively. The outside draw is a concern in terms of first-turn position, but Patterson's ability to navigate to a favorable trip is well established.

Secondary Choices

Colonel Mustard (POST 2) at 5-1 is the rail-adjacent speed horse for Carl Anderson and Shavon Townsend. This horse will be dangerous if he can establish a clear lead or press the pace without being challenged. Post 2 in a large field sprint is among the best draws at Assiniboia. At 5-1, Colonel Mustard (POST 2) represents genuine value and is the top upset choice.

Weekendindelmar (POST 3) at 6-1 for Robert Maybin and Christopher Roy Mamdeen is a legitimate pace factor from Post 3. Mamdeen is competent, and Maybin's horses are generally fit when they show up. At 6-1, Weekendindelmar (POST 3) is worth including in trifectas.

Longshots

Main Dude (POST 8) at 10-1 for Jerry Gourneau and S. Chickeness could be a deep trifecta filler if the pace collapses in front of him. J L Copper (POST 1) at 10-1 under Whitehall from the rail is an intriguing longshot if he can rate off the pace and avoid the first-turn traffic. Big Walk (POST 4) at 25-1 for Gourneau and Cumberbatch is a throwout. Star Mission (POST 5) at 25-1 for Sherry Laing and Devante Prescod is similarly dismissible. Bennigan (POST 7) at 40-1 for Dale Zawislak and Roger Hewitt is a clear throwout. Brinson (POST 10) at 25-1 for Andre Ellis and Arthur Budhu and Shankadopolous (POST 11) at 30-1 for Andre Ellis and Roger Hewitt both face insurmountable post position disadvantages in an eleven-horse sprint at this oval.

Selections

Win: Call The Cavalry (POST 6) Place: Colonel Mustard (POST 2) Show: Makena's Joy (POST 9)

Betting strategy: The large field creates excellent trifecta and superfecta value. Key Call The Cavalry (POST 6) on top with Colonel Mustard (POST 2) and Makena's Joy (POST 9) in second, and spread Weekendindelmar (POST 3), J L Copper (POST 1), and Main Dude (POST 8) in third. A partial superfecta box of Call The Cavalry (POST 6), Colonel Mustard (POST 2), Makena's Joy (POST 9), and Weekendindelmar (POST 3) offers a reasonable cost-to-payout structure given the field size.

RACE 7 — Post 11:05 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 7500 | BUN | Purse $15,000

Ten horses at $7,500 claiming going six furlongs. This is the penultimate race on the card and one of the more evenly matched fields of the day. Northvale Road (POST 4) is the 2-1 morning line choice, with Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) at 3-1 and Chicago's Gray (POST 9) at 5-1. Notably, both Northvale Road (POST 4) and Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) are trained by Jerry Gourneau, making this a barn entry situation.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

A ten-horse field at six furlongs creates a tight first-turn scenario at this short oval. Northvale Road (POST 4) and Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) as a trainer entry from Gourneau will be ridden by Dario Dalrymple and Neville Stephenson respectively. Whether Gourneau instructs his two riders to cooperate positionally will be a key race dynamic. Chicago's Gray (POST 9) at 5-1 from the outside for Tom Gardipy Jr. and Javaniel R. Patterson faces a wide draw, but Patterson can maneuver. Buck Owens (POST 8) at 7-1 for Cindy Krasner and Kerron Khelawan is an intriguing secondary choice from Post 8. Paco's Pico (POST 2) at 8-1 for Wendy Anderson and Antonio Whitehall could be an early pace factor from the inside.

Key Contenders

Northvale Road (POST 4) at 2-1 is the top choice by morning line and trainer volume. Gourneau's preference for this horse over Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) is implied by the odds differential, even though both are his. Dalrymple has ridden for Gourneau successfully throughout the meet. Post 4 in a ten-horse sprint is a clean middle draw with options.

Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) at 3-1 is the second Gourneau entry. The slight odds differential suggests this horse may be fractionally below Northvale Road (POST 4) in terms of current form or class. However, at 3-1 in a race where his stablemate controls the pace, Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) could draft into a winning position. Stephenson is a workmanlike rider who will give this horse a professional trip.

Secondary Choices

Chicago's Gray (POST 9) at 5-1 for Tom Gardipy Jr. and Javaniel R. Patterson is the top non-Gourneau contender. Patterson on a 5-1 horse in a race where the two favorites share a barn is a classic triangle that good handicappers exploit. If the Gourneau pair run into each other through the turn, Chicago's Gray (POST 9) with Patterson's aggressive style could sweep past.

Buck Owens (POST 8) at 7-1 for Cindy Krasner and Kerron Khelawan is another secondary contender. Krasner also saddles Indyetta (POST 1) in Race 2, which shows the barn has multiple live horses today. At 7-1, Buck Owens (POST 8) is worth including in exactas and trifectas as a deep threat.

Longshots

Paco's Pico (POST 2) at 8-1 for Wendy Anderson and Antonio Whitehall is a mid-level longshot with a clean inside draw. Lovely Sassicaia (POST 6) at 10-1 for Wendy Anderson and Damario Bynoe gives that barn two entries. Dangerous Game (POST 10) at 10-1 for Sherry Laing and Roger Hewitt is from the extreme outside, and the 10-1 morning line does not reflect a meaningful chance in a ten-horse sprint from Post 10. Ghost Art (POST 1) at 40-1 for Jennifer Jordan and Christopher Roy Mamdeen is a clear throwout despite the rail draw. Thoughts Of Gold (POST 3) at 30-1 for Jason Homer and S. Chickeness is another throwout. Switzler Jammin (POST 7) at 25-1 for Elton Dickey and Cumberbatch is a deep filler at best.

Selections

Win: Northvale Road (POST 4) Place: Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) Show: Chicago's Gray (POST 9)

Betting strategy: The Gourneau double entry at 2-1 and 3-1 compresses the win pool significantly. The best approach is to use Northvale Road (POST 4) and Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) as a dual key in exactas across the top, with Chicago's Gray (POST 9) and Buck Owens (POST 8) completing the exacta. A trifecta box of Northvale Road (POST 4), Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5), Chicago's Gray (POST 9), and Buck Owens (POST 8) is the recommended approach.

RACE 8 — Post 11:30 — 1650f | D | C | Clm 7500 | BUN | Purse $15,000

Ten-horse field closing out the card at $7,500 claiming over the route distance of approximately one mile and seventy yards. Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) is the morning line choice at 2-1, with Wrong Direction (POST 1) and Saxon Saga (POST 3) both at 4-1. Namesake (POST 10) rounds out the upper tier at 6-1. This is a solid closing race with genuine depth and multiple legitimate contenders.

Race 8

Pace Analysis

Route races at Assiniboia close the card on most programs, and the one-mile-seventy-yards distance creates a two-turn test that separates route specialists from one-dimensional sprinters. Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) from the middle of the field under Rachaad Knights for trainer Steve Keplin Jr. is the logical pace-controlling or stalking type. Wrong Direction (POST 1) from the rail under Tyrone Nelson for Tom Gardipy Jr. could be an early pace factor or rate behind the leaders. Saxon Saga (POST 3) under Antonio Whitehall for Richard A. Wise could stalk from Post 3. Namesake (POST 10) at 6-1 from the extreme outside under Damario Bynoe for Craig Robert Smith faces the challenge of the wide draw, but Bynoe and Smith together suggest there is enough horse here to overcome the draw.

Key Contenders

Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) at 2-1 is the morning line choice and trained by Steve Keplin Jr., the same trainer who saddles Hey Big Un (POST 3) in Race 3. If Hey Big Un (POST 3) wins the third, Keplin's barn is clearly in sharp form and Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) deserves full confidence. Rachaad Knights is one of the better jockeys on the circuit, and the Post 5 draw in a ten-horse route gives this horse flexibility.

Saxon Saga (POST 3) at 4-1 for Richard A. Wise and Antonio Whitehall has the ideal draw for a route race at Assiniboia. Post 3 on the inside of the first turn allows for ground-saving early and a stalking position. Whitehall has been a key figure in the jockey colony throughout the card, riding confidently and strategically.

Secondary Choices

Wrong Direction (POST 1) at 4-1 for Tom Gardipy Jr. and Tyrone Nelson is co-second on the morning line. Gardipy also runs Chicago's Gray (POST 9) in Race 7, and if that horse fires, the barn is live in the finale as well. The rail draw in a route at Assiniboia is advantageous, and Nelson is a competent route rider. At co-4-1, Wrong Direction (POST 1) and Saxon Saga (POST 3) are equally viable as second choices.

Namesake (POST 10) at 6-1 for Craig Robert Smith and Damario Bynoe is the most interesting value play in the closer. Bynoe has ridden multiple horses on the card and has likely had a profitable day. At 6-1 from Post 10, there is ground to overcome in a route, but horses that can range wide in the turn and save ground down the backstretch can mitigate this disadvantage. Smith and Bynoe are a combination worth following.

Longshots

Fort Langley (POST 6) at 8-1 for Sherry Laing and Neville Stephenson is a mid-range longshot in the closing route. Luka Grazie (POST 2) at 15-1 for Ryan Desjarlais and Sven Balroop is a significant longshot from an inside draw — Desjarlais is not among the leading trainers, and 15-1 reflects this. Nautical Moon (POST 7) at 10-1 for Jerry Gourneau and Dario Dalrymple is another Gourneau runner that could factor at a price. No Show No Call (POST 4) at 20-1 for Mike Taphorn and Javaniel R. Patterson is interesting solely because Patterson rarely rides extreme longshots without some purpose, but 20-1 in a route is beyond the range of conventional play. Funkenstein (POST 8) at 20-1 for Wendy Anderson and Shavon Townsend and Magic Tiger (POST 9) at 25-1 for Norbert Keshane and Cumberbatch are throwouts.

Selections

Win: Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) Place: Saxon Saga (POST 3) Show: Wrong Direction (POST 1)

Betting strategy: Exacta: Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) over Saxon Saga (POST 3), Wrong Direction (POST 1), and Namesake (POST 10). Trifecta key: Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) on top, Saxon Saga (POST 3) and Wrong Direction (POST 1) in second, and Namesake (POST 10) and Fort Langley (POST 6) in third. The 6-1 price on Namesake (POST 10) makes a single win ticket worthwhile as a value play.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Antonio Whitehall is the busiest jockey on today's card, with mounts in nearly every race. He rides Girl From De Bayou (POST 6) in Race 1, She's My Niece (POST 7) in Race 2, Pay My Way (POST 1) in Race 3, Free Maker (POST 6) in Race 4, Peterson Landing (POST 6) in Race 5, J L Copper (POST 1) in Race 6, Paco's Pico (POST 2) in Race 7, and Saxon Saga (POST 3) in Race 8. His book today is dominated by shorter-priced horses, particularly Peterson Landing (POST 6) at 1-1 in Race 5 and Saxon Saga (POST 3) at 4-1 in Race 8. When a jockey of Whitehall's caliber rides the morning line chalk, it reflects genuine stable confidence.

Javaniel R. Patterson rides quality horses throughout the card. La Gata Salvaje (POST 3) in Race 2 at 1-1, Crossati (POST 8) in Race 4 at 3-1, and Makena's Joy (POST 9) in Race 6 at 4-1 are all morning line top choices or near-choices. Patterson's presence on second and third choices frequently indicates a strong competitive read from the connections. His ride on No Show No Call (POST 4) at 20-1 in Race 8 is the one outlier in his book and should be noted — a quality rider at 20-1 sometimes means the horse is better than the price suggests, but at that morning line it remains a deep dice roll.

Damario Bynoe has a strong book, riding Hey Big Un (POST 3) at 2-1 in Race 3 and Namesake (POST 10) at 6-1 in Race 8 among his key mounts. Bynoe's ride on Hey Big Un (POST 3) in the early route is one of the most interesting of the afternoon given the morning line favoritism and Keplin's form.

Kerron Khelawan is a reliable veteran who handles Indyetta (POST 1) in Race 2, Frankie's Girl (POST 1) in Race 4, Stilettos Only (POST 2) in Race 5, and Buck Owens (POST 8) in Race 7. His best play today is Indyetta (POST 1) at 4-1 as an upset candidate over the heavy chalk in Race 2, and Buck Owens (POST 8) at 7-1 as a trifecta component in Race 7.

Rachaad Knights rides Wings Of A Sparrow (POST 3) in Race 5, Call The Cavalry (POST 6) at 2-1 in Race 6, and Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) at 2-1 in Race 8. His two morning line chalk rides in Races 6 and 8 are the most significant of his book. If Knights fires on both of those heavy chalks, it will be a productive day for his connections. Knights is a capable jockey whose presence on a morning line favorite elevates that horse's standing.

Shavon Townsend handles Smoocherro (POST 5) in Race 1, Valley Victory (POST 5) in Race 3, Colonel Mustard (POST 2) at 5-1 in Race 6, and Funkenstein (POST 8) in Race 8. The Colonel Mustard (POST 2) ride in Race 6 is the highlight of Townsend's book, and if that horse fires at 5-1 in the eleven-horse field, it would be an excellent result.

Roger Hewitt has an active book with Mister K (POST 3) in Race 4, Bennigan (POST 7) in Race 6, Dangerous Game (POST 10) in Race 7, and Fort Langley (POST 6) in Race 8. Mister K (POST 3) at 4-1 in Race 4 is Hewitt's best chance of the day, and he should be seen as a competent rider on a value horse in that spot.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jerry Gourneau is running horses in seven of eight races today, a remarkable volume that defines the Assiniboia circuit's leading trainer dynamic. His starters today include Payton's Indian (POST 2) in Race 1, Jackie Flash (POST 6) and Let Freedom Bling (POST 5) in Race 2, Brooklyn Alley Cat (POST 6) in Race 3, Oregon County (POST 4) in Race 4, Big Walk (POST 4) in Race 6, Northvale Road (POST 4) and Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5) in Race 7, and Nautical Moon (POST 7) in Race 8. His most significant runners by morning line are Oregon County (POST 4) at 2-1 in Race 4 and the double entry in Race 7. Gourneau's high-volume operation at Assiniboia means his runners are typically in acceptable condition, but the sheer volume also means his horses span a wide range of quality levels. His best bets today are Oregon County (POST 4) and the Gourneau pair in Race 7.

Wendy Anderson saddles three horses in today's card: Frankie's Girl (POST 1), Shabam (POST 2), and Crossati (POST 8) in Race 4, plus Paco's Pico (POST 2) and Lovely Sassicaia (POST 6) in Race 7 and Funkenstein (POST 8) in Race 8. Her main contender is Crossati (POST 8) at 3-1 in Race 4, where Patterson's presence confirms stable intent. The other Anderson runners are at longer prices and are secondary to Crossati (POST 8) in terms of win probability.

Carl Anderson runs Mystic Song (POST 4) in Race 1, Valley Victory (POST 5) in Race 3, and Colonel Mustard (POST 2) in Race 6. The Colonel Mustard (POST 2) ride at 5-1 in Race 6 with Townsend is the best Anderson opportunity today, and if the inside draw delivers a clean trip, this horse could upset the field.

Lise Pruitt saddles Sophia's Storm (POST 1) in Race 1, Bossy Holiday (POST 7) in Race 3, and Spunoutofcontrol (POST 5) in Race 5. The Pruitt family operation — with Ciera Pruitt riding Bossy Holiday (POST 7) in Race 3 — is a meaningful angle when a trainer puts her own daughter on a horse at 3-1. The insider confidence implied by that combination elevates Bossy Holiday (POST 7) in the Race 3 analysis.

Steve Keplin Jr. saddles Hey Big Un (POST 3) in Race 3 and Jacks Spring Break (POST 5) in Race 8. These are two of the top morning line choices in route races, and Keplin appears to have his string in sharp form. These two horses are natural connectors in daily double and Pick 4 wagering.

Keith Pederson handles I'm In Control (POST 3) in Race 1 and Peterson Landing (POST 6) in Race 5, both as morning line favorites or near-favorites. If both fire, Pederson will have had an exceptional afternoon. His horses represent logical singles in pick wagers.

Cindy Krasner trains Indyetta (POST 1) in Race 2 and Buck Owens (POST 8) in Race 7. These two horses offer attractive 4-1 and 7-1 prices respectively, and Krasner's quiet efficiency on the circuit makes her barn worth following when the odds are reasonable.

Sherry Laing saddles Mister K (POST 3) in Race 4, Star Mission (POST 5) in Race 6, Dangerous Game (POST 10) in Race 7, and Fort Langley (POST 6) in Race 8. Her best runner today appears to be Mister K (POST 3) at 4-1 with Hewitt.

Tom Gardipy Jr. handles Big Tippa (POST 2) in Race 2, Poderoso Equs (POST 5) in Race 4, Chicago's Gray (POST 9) in Race 7, and Wrong Direction (POST 1) in Race 8. The two most interesting Gardipy runners are Chicago's Gray (POST 9) at 5-1 in Race 7 with Patterson and Wrong Direction (POST 1) at 4-1 in Race 8 with Nelson. Both offer value prices, and if the barn is in form, these are excellent exacta and trifecta components.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The eight-race card at Assiniboia Downs on June 17 offers several distinct wagering layers. Here are the most actionable strategies.

Single-Race Win Plays

The top win play on the card is I'm In Control (POST 3) at 2-1 in Race 1. The six-horse field, the clean post draw, and the trainer-jockey combination all align. At 2-1 in a six-horse field, this is a viable singles-play foundation for pick sequences beginning in Race 1.

The next-best win value on the card is Colonel Mustard (POST 2) at 5-1 in Race 6. In an eleven-horse field, a 5-1 shot from Post 2 with a capable trainer and jockey combination represents genuine overlay potential. This is the single best value play on the card in terms of price-to-confidence ratio.

Namesake (POST 10) at 6-1 in Race 8 is the value play in the closer. Bynoe and Smith are a serious combination, and the outside draw penalty in a route is overstated in the morning line. If Namesake (POST 10) gets a clean trip down the backstretch, the 6-1 price could represent an attractive return.

Daily Double and Pick 3 Structure

Race 1 to Race 2 Daily Double: Use I'm In Control (POST 3) in Race 1 with La Gata Salvaje (POST 3) in Race 2. This is the chalky double, but both horses are logical and the combination should return enough to be profitable relative to the straight prices.

Race 3 to Race 5 Pick 3: Hey Big Un (POST 3) / Bossy Holiday (POST 7) in Race 3, Oregon County (POST 4) / Crossati (POST 8) / Mister K (POST 3) in Race 4, Peterson Landing (POST 6) / Just The Thing (POST 1) in Race 5. Using two horses in Race 3 and three horses in Race 4 while keying the chalk in Race 5 provides excellent coverage without prohibitive ticket cost.

Pick 4 Structure — Races 5 through 8

Race 5: Peterson Landing (POST 6), Just The Thing (POST 1) Race 6: Call The Cavalry (POST 6), Colonel Mustard (POST 2), Makena's Joy (POST 9) Race 7: Northvale Road (POST 4), Hay Scooby Doo (POST 5), Chicago's Gray (POST 9) Race 8: Jacks Spring Break (POST 5), Saxon Saga (POST 3), Wrong Direction (POST 1)

This Pick 4 structure uses 2 × 3 × 3 × 3 = 54 combinations. At Assiniboia's pool sizes, a $0.50 base Pick 4 ticket would cost $27.00 for this structure. The inclusion of Colonel Mustard (POST 2) at 5-1 and Chicago's Gray (POST 9) at 5-1 in the middle legs creates payoff potential that could be substantial if either horse upsets.

Trifecta Focus Races

Race 6 with its eleven-horse field is the best trifecta race on the card. Key Call The Cavalry (POST 6) on top, use Colonel Mustard (POST 2), Makena's Joy (POST 9), and Weekendindelmar (POST 3) in second, and spread all remaining horses except the 25-1 and higher longshots in third. The eleven-horse field at a mid-level purse creates trifecta payoffs that can reach three to four figures if any secondary horse lands in the top two.

Race 7 is the second-best trifecta race. The Gourneau double entry compresses the win pool but the trifecta pools will be softer if bettors overlook Chicago's Gray (POST 9) and Buck Owens (POST 8) beneath the two heavy choices.

Best Overall Value Play of the Day

Colonel Mustard (POST 2) at 5-1 in Race 6. Post 2 in an eleven-horse sprint at Assiniboia is among the best draws possible, Shavon Townsend handles the horse confidently, and Carl Anderson has runners competing throughout the card which suggests the barn is running in good form. A modest win bet on Colonel Mustard (POST 2) alongside a key in the trifecta and Pick 4 structure represents the best single value proposition on the June 17 program.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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