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Hawthorne Race Course presents a compelling nine-race card on this crisp October Sunday, featuring two stakes races highlighting Illinois-bred juveniles and competitive claiming and allowance events across dirt and turf surfaces. The program offers excellent wagering opportunities with varied class levels and surface changes that should create value throughout the afternoon.
Weather and Track Conditions
Ideal racing conditions await at Hawthorne with partly cloudy skies and temperatures reaching a high of 82°F with a low of 56°F. Current conditions show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-70s, providing comfortable racing weather. The main track is listed as fast while the turf course has its rail positioned at 10 feet, which typically favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – $9,750 Claiming (1 Mile 70 Yards, Dirt)
Key Contenders: Ice Shard enters off a tactical speed showing on October 2nd and drops to this restricted claiming level with rider Olaf Hernandez, who has shown positive returns since 2017. The class drop combined with the jockey change suggests connections are seeking a spot to win.
Secondary Choices: Regimental returns from a common race with stable form and reunites with Orlando Mojica, who rode him to victory on May 29th. The horse showed tactical ability despite encountering traffic in his last start.
Longshot Consideration: Polterer brings front-running tactics that could prove effective if the pace sets up favorably, though he faces strong early competition.
Pace Analysis: The inside three horses are expected to contest early pace, potentially setting up the outside runners for late strikes.
Selections: Ice Shard is the top pick with class relief and tactical improvement. Regimental offers solid place value with his returning winning jockey.
Race 2 – $34,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (5½ Furlongs, Turf)
Key Contenders: One Timer returns with fitness advantage from his September 18th effort where he overcame trouble and made a strong closing move. Dark Vintage scored at this distance in June and has competitive recent form from Kentucky tracks.
Secondary Choices: Big Vince returns from layoff with legitimate early speed that should translate from Tapeta to turf. Congrats On Fifty won the common race and maintains form with jockey Jareth Loveberry.
Pace Analysis: Early speed figures appear moderate, potentially favoring horses with tactical ability to position well without excessive pressure.
Selections: One Timer tops the selection with his improving form and distance suitability. Dark Vintage offers place value with proven course success.
Race 3 – $50,000 Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity Stakes (6½ Furlongs, Dirt)
The $50,000 Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity Stakes for Illinois-bred 2-year-old colts and geldings at 6½ furlongs represents the featured juvenile male event on today’s card, with $31,500 going to the winner. This prestigious stakes race showcases the top Illinois-bred juveniles and often serves as a launching pad for future success.
Field Analysis and Morning Line Odds
Fight the Power (2/1 ML Favorite)
The son of Protonico out of Virginia’s Joy enters as the betting favorite under Frank Reyes for trainer Elias Lopez. As a gelding, Fight the Power brings tactical advantages and should show improved focus. His pedigree suggests sprint speed with the ability to maintain his momentum through the 6½-furlong distance. The Protonico sire line has produced numerous successful sprinters, while his dam Virginia’s Joy by Kitten’s Joy adds some stamina influence.
Gogh (9/5 Second Choice)
This son of Paynter represents the Michele Boyce stable and pairs with Olaf Hernandez, forming a potent combination. Paynter was a versatile runner who excelled from 6 furlongs to 1¼ miles, suggesting Gogh could handle this distance well. His dam Speed Devil by Brilliant Speed reinforces the speed influences in his pedigree. Boyce has established herself as an excellent trainer of juveniles and typically has her horses fit and ready for their assignments.
Heavenly Beliefs (7/2)
The Core Beliefs colt represents the powerhouse combination of trainer Wayne Catalano and jockey Jareth Loveberry, who have dominated at Hawthorne with a 43% win rate together this meet. His dam My Heavenly Sign by Forest Camp provides a solid foundation for distance running. Catalano has won multiple stakes at Hawthorne and knows exactly how to prepare a juvenile for a stakes engagement.
Earl’s Outlaw (9/2)
This Tapiture gelding out of Glamala by Bellamy Road brings an interesting pedigree combination under Israel Hernandez for trainer Michael Reavis. Tapiture was a graded stakes winner who could handle both dirt and synthetic surfaces effectively. The Bellamy Road dam influence adds stamina and class to the package. As a gelding, Earl’s Outlaw should show improved focus and tactical flexibility.
Don Alejandro (5/1)
The longest shot on the board is this Tap Fever colt out of Almost an Angel by Artie Schiller, trained by Raul De La Mora with Hugo Macias in the irons. Tap Fever was a stakes winner who showed both speed and stamina, while the Artie Schiller dam line brings grass influences that could translate to tactical ability on dirt. At 5/1 odds, Don Alejandro represents potential value in what appears to be a competitive stakes field.
Pace Analysis
The 6½-furlong distance typically favors horses with natural early speed who can maintain their momentum through the stretch. Fight the Power and Gogh figure to be the main early pace factors, with their respective pedigrees suggesting they’ll want to establish position from the break. Heavenly Beliefs likely will employ stalking tactics, positioning just behind the early leaders to make his move in the stretch. Earl’s Outlaw could provide tactical flexibility depending on how the race unfolds, while Don Alejandro may need to overcome a ground-losing trip to factor.
The relatively small five-horse field reduces traffic concerns but increases the importance of early positioning. With no speed-compromising early duel likely, the pace should be honest but manageable, potentially favoring horses with the most natural ability rather than pace-dependent outcomes.
Trainer and Jockey Connections
Wayne Catalano/Jareth Loveberry: This combination has been nearly unbeatable at Hawthorne this meet, winning at a 43% clip. Catalano has extensive stakes experience and knows how to prepare horses for their biggest assignments. Loveberry ranks as the meet’s second-leading rider with excellent tactical ability.
Michele Boyce: The second-leading trainer at the meet has developed a strong reputation with 2-year-olds. Her juveniles typically show steady improvement and professional handling. Boyce understands the nuances of preparing young horses for stakes competition.
Elias Lopez: While not among the leading trainers at the current meet, Lopez has the morning-line favorite and clearly believes Fight the Power is ready for this level of competition.
Key Angles and Wagering Strategy
Class Angle: This represents a significant step up in class for most of these juveniles, making previous form lines somewhat difficult to interpret. The horses with the strongest connections (Catalano/Loveberry and Boyce/Hernandez) hold advantages in preparation and race tactics.
Distance Consideration: The 6½-furlong distance is ideal for precocious 2-year-olds and should favor horses with natural speed and tactical ability. The extended sprint distance rewards horses who can maintain their momentum rather than those needing a sustained drive.
Value Proposition: While Fight the Power deserves favoritism based on connections and morning-line assessment, Gogh at 9/5 offers more value with similar tactical advantages and superior training. The Boyce/Hernandez combination has shown consistent success with juveniles.
Selections and Recommendations
Win: Gogh represents the best combination of value and ability. His pedigree suggests distance suitability, Michele Boyce excels with 2-year-olds, and the 9/5 odds provide better value than the slight favorite.
Place: Heavenly Beliefs brings the meet’s most successful trainer-jockey combination and should run a strong race while potentially improving significantly from this effort.
Show: Fight the Power deserves respect as the morning-line favorite and should run well enough to complete the trifecta, even if potentially vulnerable to the two selections above him.
Exotic Play: In a five-horse field, consider boxing the top three selections in exactas and trifectas while using Don Alejandro and Earl’s Outlaw underneath in deeper exotic wagers for potential value payouts.
This stakes race offers excellent betting opportunities with multiple legitimate contenders and the potential for solid payouts in a competitive but manageable field size.
Race 4 – $33,000 Allowance (1 Mile 70 Yards, Dirt)
Key Contenders: General Issue brings Q1 Square pace positioning though faces higher speed ratings from multiple opponents. Mystic Power offers value with improving form and previous success under similar allowance conditions.
Secondary Choices: Bourbon Life shows surface versatility and fits the “every other” positive pattern returning to dirt. American Cause adds depth to an competitive allowance field.
Pace Analysis: The majority of the field projects in Q1/Q3 positioning, creating potential for tactical maneuvering throughout.
Selections: General Issue gets the slight edge with pace positioning. Mystic Power offers excellent value with class familiarity.
Race 5 – $50,000 Pat Whitworth Illinois Debutante Stakes (6½ Furlongs, Dirt)
The $50,000 Pat Whitworth Illinois Debutante Stakes for Illinois-bred 2-year-old fillies at 6½ furlongs represents the premier juvenile female event on today’s card, with $31,500 going to the winner. This 37th running of the stakes race showcases the top Illinois-bred fillies and serves as an important stepping stone for future development.
Field Analysis and Contenders
Biagoddess (6/5 Morning Line Favorite)
This daughter of Fed Biz represents the Larry Rivelli stable with Jareth Loveberry aboard. Biagoddess enters with two progressive victories and already stepped up successfully to take on winners in an allowance company on September 7th. Her B+ OptixGRADE from that allowance victory demonstrates she has quality form figures to work with. The combination of proven stakes ability, progressive improvement, and the meet’s second-leading jockey creates a formidable package. Rivelli has multiple horses in today’s stakes races, indicating the barn is peaking at the right time.
Then Now ‘n Always (7/2 Second Choice)
This Jimmy Creed filly out of Nora in the Sky represents trainer Michael Reavis with Israel Hernandez riding. She’s making a quick turnaround, wheeling back just two weeks after breaking her maiden. The Jimmy Creed sire line produces precocious speed that typically translates well to stakes competition at this age. Her dam Nora in the Sky by Sky Mesa adds tactical versatility to her arsenal. The quick return suggests connections are confident in her fitness and ability to handle the class jump.
Culture Shock (8/1)
Michele Boyce sends out this daughter of Macho Uno with Olaf Hernandez riding at significantly reduced weight of 115 pounds. Culture Shock brings considerable upside from a potentially productive open maiden special weight event three weeks ago where she showed significant run following early trouble. She made a wide rush behind the top two who were setting pace throughout and should benefit greatly from that preparation. Boyce has established herself as an excellent trainer of juveniles, ranking second among trainers at the current meet. Her career statistics show strong performance in stakes races, with particular success developing 2-year-olds.
Zee (9/2)
Another Michele Boyce trainee, this daughter of Palace Malice will be ridden by Julio Felix at 117 pounds. Like Biagoddess, Zee recorded a B+ OptixGRADE with her maiden special weight victory back on September 7th, showing progressive figures and solid foundation. The Palace Malice sire line has produced numerous successful horses across various distances and surfaces. Boyce’s double representation indicates she believes both fillies can compete at the stakes level. Her 23% win rate at Hawthorne this meet and 20% success rate in ungraded stakes reinforces the stable’s current form.
Mo Town Renee (10/1)
This Exaggerator filly represents trainer Wayne Catalano with Luis Colon riding at 115 pounds. Exaggerator’s offspring typically show improvement with experience and can handle extended sprint distances effectively. The weight allowance and Catalano’s stakes expertise make her a dangerous longshot possibility.
Last Candy (12/1)
Trained by R. Terry Young and ridden by Orlando Mojica at 115 pounds, this Cairo Prince filly brings early speed influences from her sire line. Cairo Prince has sired numerous successful sprinters, and the significant weight allowance could prove crucial in a competitive field.
Julba (15/1)
This Lea filly trained by John Wainwright carries Emmanuel Giles at 115 pounds. As the longest shot on the board, she would need significant pace help and a perfect trip to factor in this competitive stakes field.
Midnight Ms (20/1)
Representing trainer Steve Manley with Ademar Santos aboard at 117 pounds, this daughter of Midnight Lute brings speed influences but faces a significant class challenge.
Pace Analysis
The 6½-furlong distance typically favors fillies with natural early speed who can maintain their momentum through the stretch. Biagoddess and Then Now ‘n Always figure to be the main early pace factors, with their respective running styles suggesting they’ll want to establish position from the break. Culture Shock and Zee should employ more tactical approaches, positioning themselves to make their moves in the stretch. The relatively large eight-horse field increases the importance of early positioning and tactical awareness.
With multiple speed influences in the field, there could be moderate early pace pressure, potentially setting up the scenario for horses with tactical speed to make late moves. The extended sprint distance rewards fillies who can combine early positioning with sustained speed rather than those needing a prolonged drive.
Trainer Angles and Key Connections
Michele Boyce Double Entry: Boyce’s decision to run both Culture Shock and Zee indicates exceptional confidence in her juvenile program. Her career record shows 794 wins from 6,378 starts (12% overall) with $12.2 million in earnings, including multiple graded stakes victories. Her success rate jumps significantly at Hawthorne, where she’s winning at a 23% clip this meet. Boyce has particular expertise with 2-year-olds and ungraded stakes, making both her entries dangerous despite longer odds.
Larry Rivelli/Jareth Loveberry: This trainer-jockey combination has shown consistent success throughout the meet. Loveberry ranks as the second-leading rider with strong tactical ability, while Rivelli’s stable form suggests his horses are peaking at the right time.
Wayne Catalano: Despite having what appears to be a lesser chance on paper with Mo Town Renee, Catalano’s stakes expertise and ability to improve horses significantly from their previous efforts makes him dangerous at longer odds.
Value Analysis and Wagering Strategy
Favorite Assessment: While Biagoddess deserves favoritism based on proven stakes ability and progressive form, the 6/5 morning line odds may be somewhat short considering the competitive nature of the field and the improvement potential from several opponents.
Value Propositions: Culture Shock at 8/1 represents exceptional value given Michele Boyce’s expertise with 2-year-olds and the filly’s demonstrated ability in her last start. The 5-pound weight allowance and tactical improvement from her last race create multiple advantages.
Longshot Consideration: Zee at 9/2 offers solid value as another Boyce trainee with proven ability and B+ speed figures. The double-entry scenario might create value as bettors potentially focus on the shorter-priced Culture Shock.
Selections and Recommendations
Win: Culture Shock represents the best combination of value, improvement potential, and trainer expertise. Michele Boyce’s 23% win rate at Hawthorne and her specific success with 2-year-olds, combined with the filly’s strong last race with trouble, creates an excellent betting proposition at 8/1 odds.
Place: Biagoddess brings proven stakes ability and progressive form that should secure her a top-two finish even if potentially vulnerable for the win. Her allowance victory demonstrates she can handle winners’ company.
Show: Zee offers solid value as the second Boyce entry with similar speed figures to the favorite but at much better odds. The Palace Malice breeding suggests she can handle this distance effectively.
Exotic Strategy: Focus on boxing Culture Shock and Zee in exactas while using Biagoddess underneath. Consider trifecta plays using the top three with Then Now ‘n Always and Mo Town Renee as potential longshot closers.
Best Bet of the Day: Culture Shock represents one of the strongest value propositions on the entire card, combining a top trainer’s expertise, demonstrated ability with trouble excuses, and generous odds in a competitive stakes field.
This stakes race offers excellent betting opportunities with multiple angles to exploit, particularly focusing on Michele Boyce’s strong juvenile program and the value available on her entries against a potentially overbet favorite.
Race 6 – $9,750 Maiden Claiming (5 Furlongs, Turf)
Key Contenders: D’Argonaut shows clear improvement on turf with a B OptixGRADE from July 10th and offers excellent value at projected odds. W W Best of Times has demonstrated turf form and tactical speed that suits the distance.
Secondary Choices: Escovedo returns from a 101-day layoff with turf sprint experience and early speed. Spirit to Inspire brings youth and potential improvement.
Longshot Consideration: Ulalume presents surface versatility from her 2024 debut and could offer value underneath at long odds.
Selections: D’Argonaut is the top choice with superior turf form and value pricing. W W Best of Times provides solid place value.
Race 7 – $10,750 Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt)
Key Contenders: Tap the Line returns under similar conditions with tactical speed and late kick ability. Kind Kismet projects as a Q1 Square with 42 days recovery from her September 7th start.
Secondary Choices: The Last Thrill brings early pace as a Q1 Square and projects at similar odds to Kind Kismet. Came Up Roses enters as the probable favorite but may face pace pressure.
Longshot Consideration: Joyzella shows positive timing changes and Q2 Square positioning worth considering underneath.
Selections: Tap the Line gets the nod with tactical versatility and positive jockey-trainer combination. Kind Kismet offers place value with recovery time.
Race 8 – $31,000 Maiden Special Weight (7½ Furlongs, Turf)
Key Contenders: Keen Gal benefits from debut experience despite encountering trouble and shows good recent conditioning. Resort Fee was compromised by early trouble in her last start but brought strong form from Woodbine.
Secondary Choices: I’m Hungover has local experience advantage while Heavenly Bear brings current form with a B OptixGRADE from September 17th.
Longshot Consideration: Nelly K debuts for trainer Ethan West, who recently scored with a turf debutante winner.
Selections: Keen Gal tops the selection with experience and improvement potential. Resort Fee offers solid place value with her troubled trip excuse.
Race 9 – $13,000 Claiming (1 Mile, Turf)
Key Contenders: Camp Daddy represents a massive class drop with positive timing and strong early turf career credentials. Hawks Creek brings established turf route form in what appears as a class drop but represents similar par value.
Secondary Choices: Sonic Speed was taken out of his preferred running style last time and should benefit returning to tracking tactics. Commissioner Oscar maintains form with capable handling from Alexander Bendezu.
Longshot Consideration: Chaos Reigns makes his turf debut but should transfer his dirt form effectively to the grass.
Selections: Camp Daddy is the top choice with significant class relief and early turf success. Sonic Speed offers place value returning to preferred tactics.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Orlando Mojica continues his dominant meet as the leading rider with 55 wins from 234 starts (24% strike rate) and over $1.1 million in earnings. His recent form shows 10 wins from 41 rides in the last 14 days, maintaining his exceptional 24% win percentage. Mojica rides Regimental in Race 1, American Cause in Race 4, Last Candy in Race 5, Tap the Line in Race 7, I’m Hungover in Race 8, and D’Argonaut in Race 9.
Luis Colon ranks fifth among jockeys with a strong 20% win rate from 153 starts and has developed excellent chemistry with several local trainers. He partners with Polterer in Race 1, Lundberg in Race 2, Bourbon Life in Race 4, Mo Town Renee in Race 5, Keen Gal in Race 8, and Hawks Creek in Race 9.
Jareth Loveberry maintains his position as the second-leading jockey with 39 wins from 204 starts (19% win rate) and nearly $873,000 in earnings. He has developed a particularly successful partnership with trainer Wayne Catalano, showing 43% wins and 71% in-the-money at Hawthorne in 2025. Loveberry rides One Timer in Race 2, Heavenly Beliefs in Race 3, Escovedo in Race 6, Biagoddess in Race 5, and Nelly K in Race 8.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Chris Block leads all trainers at the meet and has established himself as the dominant force at Hawthorne with multiple graded stakes victories throughout his career. Block trains Dark Vintage and Leading the Charge in Race 2, and I’m Hungover in Race 8. His horses typically show excellent preparation and tactical awareness.
Michele Boyce ranks second among trainers and has developed a strong two-year-old program, training Culture Shock and Zee in Race 5. Her juveniles often show significant improvement from debut to second start.
Larry Rivelli maintains consistent form with 99 starts and trains One Timer in Race 2, Big Vince in Race 2, Escovedo in Race 6, and Biagoddess in Race 5. His horses typically demonstrate tactical versatility and solid conditioning.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet: Ice Shard in Race 1 represents the strongest single-race play with class relief, tactical improvement, and positive jockey change creating multiple advantages.
Value Play: D’Argonaut in Race 6 offers exceptional value as a proven turf performer at projected long odds against a weak maiden claiming field.
Exotic Strategy: Focus on races with competitive fields like Race 4 (Allowance) and Race 9 (Turf claiming) for trifecta and superfecta plays where longshots have legitimate chances.
Pick 4 Strategy: The Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) presents excellent value opportunities with maiden races and competitive claiming events offering multiple live contenders at varying odds.
Daily Double: Race 1 Ice Shard to Race 2 One Timer provides solid value with two horses showing clear advantages in their respective spots.
