Chart Guide (2.0.38)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Chased; weakened;. (3) Last race was career-best speed (59) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 27 days since last race. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.3 pts: [59, 45, 28, 42, 49]) — unpredictable performer. (6) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (7) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (28 → 45 → 59) and last race speed is well above career average (48) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts. (8) Recent news coverage: trainer_comment — positive press signals connections confidence in today's run.
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Mod1(W): 82 (1/8) Mod2(W): 75 (2/8) Mod3(W): 79 (3/8) Mod1-LS: 55 (6/8) Win Prob: 18.4% Value Score: 1.35 ★
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
TL;DR
TogglePick Pony Bet of the Day — BLOWN AWAY, Race 6 at Mountaineer Park
When the tote board reads 15-1 on a horse carrying the LONE_SPEED angle, you stop what you're doing and you bet. Blown Away (Post 7) in Race 6 at Mountaineer Park on August 17th is exactly the kind of overlooked missile that separates sharp players from the crowd. When a horse figures to clear to an uncontested lead with zero pressure from the rest of the field, the dynamics of the race shift dramatically in their favor — wire-to-wire winners at fair prices are one thing, but a lone frontrunner at 15-1 is a gift the public is simply leaving on the table. At that morning line, the potential return is enormous relative to the risk, and that's before you factor in the second critical angle driving this play.
The POSITIVE_NEWS_COVERAGE angle adds a layer of confidence that's hard to ignore. When a horse is generating the right kind of attention heading into race day — not hype, but genuine, well-sourced optimism from those in the know — it signals that connections believe they have a live runner. The buzz isn't random noise; it's pointing in the same direction the speed figures are already pointing. That alignment of qualitative and quantitative factors is precisely what serious handicappers hunt for in a longshot play, and BLOWN AWAY checks both boxes cleanly.
At a Value Score of 7/10, this isn't a desperation heave — it's a calculated, high-confidence single that deserves a spot in your exotics and absolutely deserves a straight win bet. The public will likely underestimate an uncontested pace scenario on a horse with positive momentum building behind the scenes, keeping that price fat and juicy right up until post time. BLOWN AWAY is our Pick Pony Bet of the Day — play it to win, slot it in your exactas, and let the speed do the talking.
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✓ Positives:(1) Only early-speed horse in the race - uncontested lead possible. (2) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 59 vs fast: 45). (3) Big last-race effort (59) — 21 pts above recent average. (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 84 vs field 75). (5) Fourth race back from a 196-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Speed improved +17 pts then +14 pts in last 2 starts (28 → 45 → 59) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (8) Last race E1 pace (94.0) was 9.8 pts above personal avg (84.2) and horse still finished 6th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Lone Speed Advantage, Positive Recent Press.