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Santa Anita Park concludes its autumn meet today with a competitive 10-race card featuring the Grade III Autumn Miss Stakes as the featured eighth race. Weather conditions are ideal with mostly sunny skies and a high near 76°F, while track conditions are listed as Fast for dirt and Firm for turf.
Track Overview and Conditions
The final day of Santa Anita’s autumn meet (September 26 – October 26) offers excellent racing conditions with fair weather and optimal track surfaces. Current conditions show dirt surfaces as Fast and turf courses as Firm, providing ideal footing for today’s diverse racing program that includes both dirt and turf events.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1: Maiden Claiming (1 1/8 Miles Turf)
Key Contenders: Rehearsal (IRE) emerges as the morning line favorite at 2-1, showing consistent form for trainer Philip D’Amato. Wildfire Princess offers strong value at 5-2 for trainer Robert Hess Jr., while Justivar presents an interesting longshot option at 7-2.
Pace Analysis: The extended turf distance favors closers, with several fillies showing tactical speed that could set up a strong late kick scenario.
Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming (1 Mile Dirt)
Key Contenders: Speed Grazy tops the handicapping charts with the best expected finish rating, followed by Austonian who brings solid recent form. Brunchandcrunch represents value for trainer Richard Baltas.
Pace Analysis: The one-mile dirt distance should favor horses with tactical speed and the ability to respond to pressure in the stretch.
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs Dirt)
Key Contenders: Midland Money stands out as the heavy favorite at 3-2, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Juan Hernandez. Bartholdy and Mbagnick (CHI) provide the primary opposition in this competitive sprint.
Key Angles: The Baffert-Hernandez combination remains formidable, particularly in sprint races at Santa Anita.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile Turf)
Key Contenders: Tiz Grace leads the field as the 9-5 favorite for trainer Tim Yakteen. Wild Like the West and Island Home provide the main competition in this competitive 2-year-old filly turf debut.
Wagering Angles: First-time starter angles often provide value in 2-year-old maiden races, particularly on turf.
Race 5: Claiming (5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt)
Key Contenders: This claiming race features several scratched horses, making analysis challenging. Among active runners, Howbeit and Morello show the most promise based on recent form patterns.
Pace Analysis: The short sprint distance favors early speed, with the winner likely coming from the pace-setting group.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 Furlongs Turf)
Key Contenders: Cal’s Goal and Another Bulleit share favoritism at 3-1 in this competitive California-bred maiden race. Lucky Tiger offers value at 9-2 with jockey Umberto Rispoli.
Key Angles: California-bred bonuses add value to this race, making it attractive for exotic wagering.
Race 7: Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt)
Key Contenders: She’s a One of One leads the betting at 5-2 for trainer Peter Miller. Going Great Guns and Stormy Rouge provide the main competition in this sprint for maidens.
Pace Analysis: Early speed should be crucial in this short dirt sprint, with little time for late rallies.
Race 8: Autumn Miss Stakes (Grade III) (1 Mile Turf)
The $100,000 Grade III Autumn Miss Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at one mile on turf serves as the featured race on Santa Anita’s closing day card. This competitive nine-horse field lacks a dominant favorite, creating excellent wagering opportunities in the day’s marquee event.
Key Contenders
Slick (IRE) emerges as the 2-1 morning line favorite for trainer Philip D’Amato with jockey Umberto Rispoli. The gray daughter of Oasis Dream broke her maiden over this exact course and distance on December 26, 2024, demonstrating proven ability at Santa Anita’s mile turf configuration. After a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Del Mar Oaks behind Velocity, she rebounded with a convincing one-length allowance victory at this track on September 26, showing her return to form. Her tactical speed and proven track record make her the horse to beat.
Warming offers excellent value at 3-1 odds for trainer H. Graham Motion with Juan Hernandez aboard. The Global Campaign filly finished a strong third in the John C. Harris Stakes on September 27, beaten only a half-length behind winner Innovative. Her consistent form pattern and the step up to a full mile should favor her late-running style, making her a legitimate win threat at attractive odds.
Take A Breath (GB) represents solid European form at 5-1 odds for trainer Mark Glatt with Hector Berrios. The Bated Breath filly won three of seven starts in England, including an impressive victory over males in handicap company at Doncaster. Her U.S. debut in the Del Mar Oaks saw her rally strongly from the back to finish fourth behind subsequent Grade I winner Lush Lips, demonstrating her ability to compete at this level. Though she struggled in her most recent start behind Slick, the European breeding and tactical versatility make her dangerous.
Secondary Contenders
Innovative returns to the scene of her greatest triumph, having won the John C. Harris Stakes down Santa Anita’s hillside turf on September 27. The Complexity filly defeated Lee’s Baby Girl by a neck in that Grade III event, showing her graded stakes credentials. However, stretching back to a full mile after sprint success creates questions about her optimal distance. At 6-1 odds, she offers value for those believing her John C. Harris form will translate.
Lee’s Baby Girl finished second in the John C. Harris Stakes, just a neck behind Innovative. The Malibu Moon filly has shown consistent form but faces a challenging task against this competitive field at 15-1 odds. Her pacesetting tactics in the John C. Harris suggest she may struggle with the tactical demands of a full mile.
Firenze Flavor brings the highest weight at 124 pounds, indicating non-winner allowances from the handicapper. For trainer Patrick Gallagher and jockey Kazushi Kimura, she represents a longshot option at 8-1 odds.
Longshots and Value Plays
Precise Timing offers significant value at 20-1 odds for the powerful John Sadler stable with Antonio Fresu. Sadler’s expertise with turf horses and the mare’s allowance form could produce a surprise at generous odds.
Wink and a Grin represents the lone California-bred in the field at 15-1 odds. The Cal-bred bonus and home-track advantage could provide additional motivation for trainer Carla Gaines.
A Thousand Miles completes the field as the longest shot at 30-1 odds. While her recent form appears modest, the distance and surface combination could unlock improvement.
Pace Analysis
The mile turf distance typically produces moderate early fractions with tactical positioning proving crucial. Slick’s tactical speed gives her positioning advantages, while the European-style runners Take A Breath and Firenze Flavor will likely settle off the pace. The presence of several speed types should create honest early fractions, setting up for a stretch drive that favors horses with tactical versatility.
Key Angles and Insights
The John C. Harris Stakes connection proves significant, with the top three finishers returning for redemption. Innovative’s narrow victory suggests the form between her, Lee’s Baby Girl, and Warming remains close. The step up from the downhill turf to a conventional mile creates different tactical challenges that could shuffle the finishing order.
European breeding often excels on Santa Anita’s turf courses, benefiting Take A Breath and Slick. The presence of proven turf trainer Mark Glatt (Take A Breath) and Philip D’Amato (Slick, Innovative) adds confidence to their respective chances.
Wagering Strategy
The competitive nature and lack of a dominant favorite create excellent exotic wagering opportunities. The 2-1 morning line favorite Slick appears vulnerable enough to consider upset scenarios.
Win Selection: Warming offers the best combination of value and ability at 3-1 odds
Place/Show Value: Take A Breath provides solid European form at attractive 5-1 odds
Longshot Special: Precise Timing at 20-1 for the powerful Sadler barn
Suggested Wagering: Exacta box Warming/Take A Breath/Slick, with Precise Timing as a saver in trifecta combinations. The competitive field and attractive odds throughout make this an ideal race for multi-horse exotic wagers.
Race 9: Starter Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs Dirt)
Key Contenders: Wound Up heads the field at 3-1, showing consistent recent form. Hard to Figure and Doncic provide the main competition in this restricted claiming event.
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs Downhill Turf)
Key Contenders: Queen Sienna (ARG) leads the analysis despite being scratched. Among active runners, Yellow Sun Dress offers the best value at 3-1, while Dare to Fly brings solid form for trainer Philip D’Amato.
Track Notes: The downhill turf course requires horses with proven ability on this unique configuration.
Jockey Analysis
Juan Hernandez continues his dominance at Santa Anita with over 2,400 career wins and multiple meet titles. His combination with trainer Bob Baffert on Midland Money in Race 3 represents a strong betting angle. Umberto Rispoli brings European experience valuable for turf races, while Antonio Fresu offers consistent performance across multiple race types.
Trainer Insights
Bob Baffert maintains his strong Santa Anita record with quality entries throughout the card. Philip D’Amato shows multiple strong contenders, particularly in turf events with Slick (IRE) and Dare to Fly. Tim Yakteen’s Tiz Grace represents solid value in the 2-year-old turf maiden.
Wagering Strategy
The competitive nature of today’s card favors multi-race wagers, particularly focusing on the Autumn Miss Stakes as a key leg. Single-race value appears strongest in Races 2, 4, and 8, while exotic wagering opportunities look promising in the California-bred maiden races.
Best Bets: Midland Money (Race 3), Slick (IRE) (Race 8), Speed Grazy (Race 2).
Value Plays: Warming in the Autumn Miss Stakes, Wildfire Princess in Race 1, and Hard to Figure in Race 9 offer potential overlay opportunities.
