See how we did! Pick Pony Picks Weekly Recap – Week of November 1, 2026

 

TL;DR

Pick Pony Weekly Picks Recap — November 1, 2026

AI Picks Performance This Week

What a week to be a Pick Pony subscriber! Our AI systems delivered impressive results across the board from October 25–30, with nearly every algorithm beating the morning-line chalk baseline of 32.8%. Leading the charge was Algorithm Ens Video, which posted a jaw-dropping 42.4% win rate on settled races — a full ten points above chalk — while also delivering a stellar 75.8% in-the-money rate. Not far behind, Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and its morning update combined for 149 wins across 434 settled races (34.3% win rate), topping the chalk benchmark and adding 36 straight exactas, 10 trifectas, and 47 boxed trifectas to the ticket pile. Our flagship AI Best Bets model checked in with a remarkable 70.4% ITM rate on its top picks, while the AI Best Bets A2 series pushed even higher at 74.3% ITM — meaning nearly three out of every four top selections hit the board. Across all models, hundreds of races are still settling, so those pending results will only add to an already outstanding weekly total.

Standout Wins

The highlight reel this week is loaded with gems. On the longshot front, Experimental Weight Set 2 unearthed MOTHER GREEN at 12-1 (Oct 28, IND R8) and AYE AYE SIR at 10-1 (Oct 27, MVR R6) — the kind of prices that turn a good day into a great one. Algo 1's morning update nailed OENOPHILIA at 9-1 (Oct 25, MNR R1), a gorgeous overlay that rewarded subscribers who trusted the model over the morning line. The AI Exacta model delivered DUKE OF SUGGINS at 6-1 (Oct 27, PRX R1), contributing to its 30 straight exacta hits and 37 boxed trifectas on the week. Meanwhile, KING BAROU (5-1) appeared as a consensus winner across multiple models — AI Best Bets, AI Exacta, Algo 1, Algo 3, Algorithm Ens Refit, and Algo 2 all had it on top at PRX R5 on Oct 25, a powerful cross-model signal that paid off in a big way. The Ai Labs Longshot model lived up to its name with wins like LIBERTY SIMONE (5-1), ZEUS'S ECHO (5-1), and RAVEL (5-1) all landing on Oct 30 alone — a spectacular single-day performance.

Key Insights

Several clear themes emerged from this week's data. First, cross-model consensus was a reliable strength indicator — horses like KING BAROU, UNBRIDLED JUSTICE, REAL GOODBAR, and HONOR AND OBAY appeared as top picks across four or more systems simultaneously, and all won. When our algorithms agree, it pays to listen. Second, the morning update models consistently added value over their overnight counterparts, with Algo 2's morning update reaching 149 wins vs. 141 for the overnight version, and Algo 3's morning update climbing to 142 wins — demonstrating that our live scratch-replacement logic is working exactly as designed. Third, Algorithm Ens Video continued to show elite precision on its focused race pool, reinforcing that video-integrated pattern recognition is a differentiator worth watching as we expand its coverage. Finally, the Ai Labs Longshot model's 70.3% ITM rate proves you don't have to sacrifice board presence when hunting for big prices — a truly best-of-both-worlds result this week.

Looking Ahead

With dozens of pending races still to settle, this week's numbers have only room to grow — and our models head into the next card in excellent form. Keep an eye on the morning updates for all major algorithms, stay alert for those powerful multi-model consensus signals, and let Pick Pony's AI do the heavy lifting. The horses are loading into the gate — let's make it another winning week! 🏇

Weekly Performance Summary

How each pick source's top selection finished across every graded race this week.

Where our AI Ensemble picks finished this week

All 404 graded races the Algo 2 top pick ran in.

0%22%43%65%86%Won the race: 34.9% from 404 racesWon the race34.9%Finished 2nd: 19.1% from 404 racesFinished 2nd19.1%Finished 3rd: 14.9% from 404 racesFinished 3rd14.9%In the money: 68.8% from 404 racesIn the money68.8%

The bottom bar adds the first three together.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Won the race34.9%404
Finished 2nd19.1%404
Finished 3rd14.9%404
In the money68.8%404

Pick Pony's AI Winner models rank every horse in each race using a weighted combination of speed figures, pace analysis, trainer/jockey statistics, track bias, and dozens of other handicapping factors. Each algorithm uses a different set of optimized weights to capture different angles on the same race data. Top Pick Wins measures how often the model's #1 ranked horse won the race outright. Places and Shows count 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively. ITM (In The Money) is the combined total of Win + Place + Show. Rates are calculated against settled races only (pending results excluded). The Exotic Wager Hits table shows how often the model's top 3 picks finished in the correct order (Exacta/Trifecta) or in any order within the top positions (Boxed Exacta/Boxed Trifecta). Morning Update rows are the same picks re-ranked after the official scratches and surface changes were applied that morning.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)

Several independent AI models each rank the race; the horse they agree on most is the pick.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)14134.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7719.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6014.9%
Top Pick ITM27868.8%
Pending124

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta31 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta36 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta9 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta39 (12%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)14934.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)8319.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6515.0%
Top Pick ITM29768.4%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick30 races, 8 won26.7%
Pending124

The morning update found a new pick in 30 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 8 of them won. Without the morning update those 30 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta36 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta39 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta10 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta47 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)

An AI estimate of each horse's chance of winning, blended with the morning line; the most likely winner is the pick.

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)13433.4%
Top Pick Places (2nd)8420.9%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)5614.0%
Top Pick ITM27468.3%
Pending124

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta32 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta39 (12%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta7 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta40 (12%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)14232.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)9221.3%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)5813.5%
Top Pick ITM29267.7%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick30 races, 8 won26.7%
Pending124

The morning update found a new pick in 30 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 8 of them won. Without the morning update those 30 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta39 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta39 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta10 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta49 (12%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1

Our weighted rating: every horse is scored on speed, pace, class, form and connections, and the top score is the pick.

Algo 1 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)12431.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7819.7%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)5914.9%
Top Pick ITM26165.9%
Pending124

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta30 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta32 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta6 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta26 (8%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)13531.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)8519.7%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6314.6%
Top Pick ITM28365.5%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick36 races, 11 won30.6%
Pending124

The morning update found a new pick in 36 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 11 of them won. Without the morning update those 36 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta34 (8%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta37 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta7 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta33 (8%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

AI Exacta

The top two horses in our exotics ordering, played as a $1 straight exacta.

AI Exacta Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)13834.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7719.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6014.9%
Top Pick ITM27568.4%
Pending124

Exotic Wager Hits (AI Exacta Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta30 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta35 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta11 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta37 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)11830.5%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7519.4%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)5514.2%
Top Pick ITM24864.1%
Pending124

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta24 (7%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta34 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta5 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta32 (10%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)12930.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)8018.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6615.4%
Top Pick ITM27564.1%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick42 races, 11 won26.2%
Pending124

The morning update found a new pick in 42 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 11 of them won. Without the morning update those 42 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta31 (7%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta37 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta9 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta42 (10%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)11829.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)8822.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6215.5%
Top Pick ITM26867.2%
Pending124

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta29 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta35 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta7 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta29 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)12629.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)9321.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6515.0%
Top Pick ITM28465.7%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick33 races, 8 won24.2%
Pending124

The morning update found a new pick in 33 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 8 of them won. Without the morning update those 33 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta31 (7%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta38 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta10 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta36 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Best Bets

Ai Best Bets Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races380
Top Pick Wins (1st)9835.8%
Top Pick Places (2nd)5319.3%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)4215.3%
Top Pick ITM19370.4%
Pending79

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Best Bets Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta0 (—)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta0 (—)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta0 (—)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta0 (—)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Best Bets A2

Ai Best Bets A2 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races183
Top Pick Wins (1st)3733.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)2724.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)1715.6%
Top Pick ITM8174.3%
Pending69

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Best Bets A2 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta0 (—)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta0 (—)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta0 (—)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta0 (—)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Labs Longshot

The horses listed in each day's Kelly Edge Plays section: 10-1 or higher on the morning line and rated a value play by our models; counted per horse, not per race.

Ai Labs Longshot Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races230
Top Pick Wins (1st)2625.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)2423.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)2120.8%
Top Pick ITM7170.3%
Pending123

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Labs Longshot Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta6 (7%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta15 (18%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta3 (4%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta7 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Labs Winchance

Ai Labs Winchance Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races230
Top Pick Wins (1st)2928.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)2221.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)1615.8%
Top Pick ITM6766.3%
Pending123

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Labs Winchance Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta9 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta15 (17%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta4 (4%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta11 (12%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Ens Refit

Algorithm Ens Refit Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)13834.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7719.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)5914.6%
Top Pick ITM27468.0%
Pending124

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Ens Refit Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta28 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta35 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta9 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta37 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Ens Signals

Algorithm Ens Signals Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races230
Top Pick Wins (1st)2726.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)2524.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)1312.9%
Top Pick ITM6564.4%
Pending123

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Ens Signals Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta6 (7%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta18 (21%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta2 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta13 (15%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Ens Video

Algorithm Ens Video Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races49
Top Pick Wins (1st)1442.4%
Top Pick Places (2nd)26.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)927.3%
Top Pick ITM2575.8%
Pending16

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Ens Video Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta3 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta1 (3%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta1 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta2 (6%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Keepers

Algorithm Keepers Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races396
Top Pick Wins (1st)8834.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)5621.7%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)3614.0%
Top Pick ITM18069.8%
Pending123

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Keepers Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta23 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta31 (14%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta10 (5%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta23 (10%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Offtrk Ens

Algorithm Offtrk Ens Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races563
Top Pick Wins (1st)13734.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7719.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)5714.2%
Top Pick ITM27167.4%
Pending124

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Offtrk Ens Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta27 (8%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta35 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta7 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta35 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Today’s Best Bets (AI × Expert Alignment)

The horses published in each day's Today's Best Bets post: races where the AI top pick and the expert consensus top pick were the same horse, split by how many AI models agreed.

AgreementRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
All 3 AI models + experts15960302237.7%
2 of 3 AI models + experts7228121238.9%
1 of 3 AI models + experts421011723.8%
All Best Bets27398534135.9%
Pending107

AI Longshot Picks (Kelly Edge Plays)

Longshot picks are individual horses flagged at publication time: their morning-line odds were 8-1 or greater — prices the betting public considers unlikely to win — and the model's calibrated win probability said the price overpaid. Unlike the winner models above, a longshot is not a race's top-ranked horse, so these tables count selections, not races: every flagged horse is one bet, graded on its own finish, and a single race can contribute more than one. (For the same reason there is no exotic-hits table here — an exacta or trifecta needs a ranked 1-2-3 ticket, which a set of longshot flags does not define.) There is also one longshot table rather than one per algorithm: the flag depends only on the horse's price and its calibrated edge, never on where an algorithm ranked it, so all three models publish exactly the same longshot list. Because longshots win far less frequently by definition, win rates in this section are expected to be substantially lower than the winner models above. That is normal and by design — even a modest longshot win rate of 5-10% can be highly profitable because the payoffs are dramatically larger. A $2 win bet on an 8-1 longshot returns $18. Focus on ITM rate and on the realised ROI in the Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator below rather than on raw win percentage when evaluating longshot model performance.

The horses listed in each day's Kelly Edge Plays section: 10-1 or higher on the morning line and rated a value play by our models; counted per horse, not per race.

MetricCountRate
Longshot Selections189
Races Covered101
Wins (1st)43.6%
Places (2nd)1110.0%
Shows (3rd)1110.0%
ITM2623.6%
Pending53

Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator

What a flat win bet on every flagged longshot would have returned this week at each minimum-edge threshold.

Each strategy below replays the past 60 days of AI longshot picks as actual $2 mutuel bets and reports the realised return. A longer window than the rest of this report is used here on purpose: longshots are rare and extremely high-variance, so a single week's results are dominated by luck — only over a larger sample do the calibrated edge strategies separate from simply betting every longshot. Bets are deduplicated by (track, race, horse) so a horse picked by all three algorithms generates one bet, not three. Edge strategies use a calibrated win probability (from the longshot meta-learner) and bet only when P(win) × decimal odds − 1 exceeds the listed threshold — these target overlays rather than long prices for their own sake. Hit% is the share of tickets that cashed any leg. Published longshots graded: 1844; wider 10/1-and-longer universe available to the edge rows: 14423, of which 14423 could be assigned a calibrated edge. Calibrator: out-of-sample tiered calibrator on the cross-race win probability (lgbm_win_prob_fwd), trained through 2026-09-01; edge rows replay only the 60 days after that date, so no graded race was ever seen by the calibrator. The edge filters use only leak-free forward scores (lgbm_win_prob_fwd — captured before each race ran), so the ROIs are a genuine out-of-sample estimate — never the in-sample re-scored values that previously inflated this section. The two families are measured differently — read them separately. The raw-filter rows grade the longshots we actually published, over the full 60 days. The edge rows sweep a different population: every thoroughbred runner priced at 10/1 or longer, published or not. That matters, because being published as a longshot already requires passing an edge test — so re-applying an edge threshold to the published picks would just re-filter an already-filtered group and tell you nothing. The edge rows also cover only the most recent 60 days (14423 runners), because everything before 2026-09-01 was needed to fit the calibrator and grading it would be marking its own homework. That window widens on its own as forward scores accumulate.

StrategyBetsTickets CashedStakePayout
$2 WIN — all longshots184492 (5.0%)$3688.00$2021.16
$2 PLACE — all longshots1844245 (13.3%)$3688.00$2359.82
$2 SHOW — all longshots1844400 (21.7%)$3688.00$2314.60
$2 WIN + $2 PLACE1844245 (13.3%)$7376.00$4380.98
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 15/1151664 (4.2%)$3032.00$1715.96
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 20/1118035 (3.0%)$2360.00$1172.94
$2 WIN — field ≥ 8154673 (4.7%)$3092.00$1763.30
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 5%6025371 (6.2%)$12050.00$8174.96
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10%2789197 (7.1%)$5578.00$4191.06
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 20%104051 (4.9%)$2080.00$1000.24
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 30%82948 (5.8%)$1658.00$824.44
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 40%57534 (5.9%)$1150.00$562.72
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 50%38420 (5.2%)$768.00$320.94
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 60%28714 (4.9%)$574.00$241.84
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 70%1136 (5.3%)$226.00$128.72
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 80%501 (2.0%)$100.00$10.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 90%451 (2.2%)$90.00$10.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 100%451 (2.2%)$90.00$10.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10% AND field ≥ 81814116 (6.4%)$3628.00$2907.08

Trifecta Structure Plays (AI Exotics)

The Trifecta line from each day's AI Exotics section: key the top pick to win over the next three horses (six combinations per race); the tag shows whether the race shape looked playable.

Each AI Predictions post suggests one trifecta structure per race: the Algo 3 top pick to win, with its next three ranked horses boxed for 2nd and 3rd (6 combinations). Races our race-shape model rates most favorable are tagged ⭐ Best Bet in the post. This table grades last week's published plays against the actual trifecta payoffs at each track's real wager minimum — no assumptions, no hindsight.

Plays graded275
Trifectas hit40 (14.5%)
Total staked$969.00
Total returned$1,044.31

285 race(s) skipped for scratches inside the top four; 3 skipped where the track's trifecta minimum wasn't recorded. Per-race wager minimums have been captured since July 4, 2026, so this ledger grows more complete each week.

Benchmark: The Morning-Line Favorite

What betting the morning-line favorite in every race would have returned: the baseline every pick source has to beat.

The simplest possible strategy is to always bet the morning-line favorite — the "chalk." This table shows how that baseline performed across the same thoroughbred races this week, so you can judge the AI's win rates against what the public's top choice delivered. Beating the chalk consistently is the real test of any handicapping model.

MetricCountRate
Settled Races439
Favorite Wins (1st)14432.8%
Favorite Places (2nd)8519.4%
Favorite Shows (3rd)5913.4%
Favorite ITM28865.6%

Consensus Expert Picks

Picks from more than twenty-five published handicappers, weighted into one consensus selection per race.

Consensus Expert Picks are derived from multiple independent handicapping sources. Each source submits their top picks per race, and the consensus ranking is built by scoring each horse: 4 points for a 1st-place pick, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th. The horse with the highest total score becomes the consensus top pick. Agreement % measures what share of experts included a horse in their picks — higher agreement signals stronger conviction across sources. The Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic stats below measure how the consensus top pick actually performed on race day.

MetricCountRate
Total Races671
Top Pick Wins (1st)16334.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)8618.3%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6814.5%
Top Pick ITM31767.4%
Pending201

Exotic Wager Hits (Consensus Top 3 Picks)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta42 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta32 (8%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta13 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta42 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Performance by Breed

The same results split by thoroughbred and quarter horse races, which are handicapped differently.

Top-pick win rates vary dramatically by breed. Thoroughbred (TB) racing is the most form-driven and predictable, while Quarter Horse (QH) and Arabian (AR) sprints are decided in a few hundred yards and are far more chaotic — they naturally produce lower win rates. Because the summary above blends all breeds together, this table separates them so each breed's true performance is visible. W/P/S are wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd), with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the In-The-Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX/BEX/TRI/BTRI are exacta, boxed-exacta, trifecta, and boxed-trifecta hits on the top picks. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one), and show dashes for the exotic columns because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket.

Thoroughbred

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner563141 (35%)77 (19%)60 (15%)278 (69%)31 (9%)36 (11%)9 (3%)39 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner563134 (33%)84 (21%)56 (14%)274 (68%)32 (10%)39 (12%)7 (2%)40 (12%)
Algo 1 Winner563124 (31%)78 (20%)59 (15%)261 (66%)30 (9%)32 (10%)6 (2%)26 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner563118 (30%)75 (19%)55 (14%)248 (64%)24 (7%)34 (10%)5 (2%)32 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner563118 (30%)88 (22%)62 (16%)268 (67%)29 (9%)35 (11%)7 (2%)29 (9%)
AI Longshot1894 (4%)11 (10%)11 (10%)26 (24%)————

Performance by Track

The same results split by track, to show where each source is strongest and weakest.

The tables below break down each pick source's performance at individual tracks. W/P/S show the number of wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd) with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the combined In The Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX (Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks finished 1st and 2nd in exact order. BEX (Boxed Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks both finished in the top 2 in either order. TRI (Trifecta) and BTRI (Boxed Trifecta) apply the same logic to the top 3 picks finishing in the top 3 positions. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one) and show dashes in the exotic columns, because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket that a per-horse longshot flag does not define. Algo 1 is the weighted rating, Algo 2 the AI Ensemble and Algo 3 the AI Win Probability model — ordered by measured performance, so a higher number should be the stronger source; the Weight Set rows are experimental profiles graded as shadows. Comparing sources at a specific track helps identify which is strongest for that venue. The ML Favorite (chalk) row shows how the morning-line favorite performed in that track's thoroughbred races — the baseline any pick source needs to beat to be adding value at that venue.

AIK

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Algo 3 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Algo 1 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)

ALB

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner40 (0%)0 (0%)2 (50%)2 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)
Algo 3 Winner41 (25%)0 (0%)2 (50%)3 (75%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)
Algo 1 Winner41 (33%)1 (33%)0 (0%)2 (67%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner40 (0%)1 (25%)2 (50%)3 (75%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (25%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner41 (25%)1 (25%)2 (50%)4 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (25%)
Expert Consensus91 (14%)0 (0%)2 (29%)3 (43%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (29%)
ML Favorite (chalk)40 (0%)0 (0%)2 (50%)2 (50%)————

BEL

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner4611 (34%)5 (16%)4 (12%)20 (62%)3 (12%)1 (4%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner4610 (30%)6 (18%)7 (21%)23 (70%)3 (11%)2 (7%)0 (0%)2 (7%)
Algo 1 Winner4610 (30%)4 (12%)7 (21%)21 (64%)4 (16%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner4612 (38%)4 (12%)4 (12%)20 (62%)2 (8%)1 (4%)0 (0%)1 (4%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner4610 (30%)5 (15%)6 (18%)21 (64%)3 (12%)1 (4%)0 (0%)1 (4%)
AI Longshot121 (11%)1 (11%)2 (22%)4 (44%)————
Expert Consensus468 (25%)6 (19%)8 (25%)22 (69%)3 (9%)2 (6%)0 (0%)1 (3%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3512 (34%)4 (11%)4 (11%)20 (57%)————

CDX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner194 (24%)4 (24%)2 (12%)10 (59%)0 (0%)2 (15%)0 (0%)4 (31%)
Algo 3 Winner196 (35%)6 (35%)0 (0%)12 (71%)1 (7%)3 (20%)0 (0%)3 (20%)
Algo 1 Winner195 (31%)4 (25%)1 (6%)10 (62%)2 (15%)1 (8%)1 (8%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner194 (25%)4 (25%)1 (6%)9 (56%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner192 (12%)4 (24%)2 (12%)8 (47%)2 (15%)0 (0%)1 (8%)1 (8%)
AI Longshot50 (0%)1 (25%)1 (25%)2 (50%)————
Expert Consensus309 (33%)3 (11%)5 (19%)17 (63%)2 (7%)0 (0%)1 (4%)1 (4%)
ML Favorite (chalk)194 (21%)4 (21%)2 (11%)10 (53%)————

CTD

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner172 (25%)4 (50%)1 (12%)7 (88%)0 (0%)1 (12%)0 (0%)1 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner172 (25%)3 (38%)1 (12%)6 (75%)0 (0%)2 (25%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner171 (12%)3 (38%)2 (25%)6 (75%)0 (0%)1 (12%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner172 (25%)3 (38%)1 (12%)6 (75%)0 (0%)1 (12%)0 (0%)1 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner171 (12%)2 (25%)0 (0%)3 (38%)0 (0%)1 (12%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot50 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)————
ML Favorite (chalk)82 (25%)3 (38%)1 (12%)6 (75%)————

CTX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3210 (42%)7 (29%)3 (12%)20 (83%)5 (22%)5 (22%)3 (13%)4 (17%)
Algo 3 Winner3211 (46%)8 (33%)3 (12%)22 (92%)7 (30%)5 (22%)3 (13%)4 (17%)
Algo 1 Winner3210 (42%)7 (29%)2 (8%)19 (79%)5 (22%)3 (13%)1 (4%)4 (17%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner327 (29%)9 (38%)2 (8%)18 (75%)2 (10%)6 (30%)1 (5%)5 (25%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner328 (33%)8 (33%)3 (12%)19 (79%)5 (22%)4 (17%)2 (9%)4 (17%)
Expert Consensus329 (38%)7 (29%)2 (8%)18 (75%)5 (21%)4 (17%)2 (8%)6 (25%)
ML Favorite (chalk)248 (33%)9 (38%)1 (4%)18 (75%)————

DED

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3411 (46%)4 (17%)5 (21%)20 (83%)1 (6%)2 (12%)0 (0%)3 (19%)
Algo 3 Winner3410 (45%)1 (5%)5 (23%)16 (73%)2 (13%)1 (7%)0 (0%)3 (20%)
Algo 1 Winner346 (25%)4 (17%)4 (17%)14 (58%)1 (6%)3 (19%)0 (0%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner343 (16%)5 (26%)4 (21%)12 (63%)1 (6%)3 (19%)0 (0%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner347 (30%)4 (17%)5 (22%)16 (70%)2 (10%)3 (15%)1 (5%)1 (5%)
AI Longshot60 (0%)0 (0%)1 (20%)1 (20%)————
Expert Consensus346 (25%)3 (12%)4 (17%)13 (54%)1 (4%)2 (8%)0 (0%)1 (4%)
ML Favorite (chalk)2511 (44%)5 (20%)3 (12%)19 (76%)————

EUR

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner80 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)1 (33%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)
Algo 3 Winner80 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)1 (33%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)
Algo 1 Winner80 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)1 (33%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner80 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)1 (33%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner80 (0%)0 (0%)2 (67%)2 (67%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (33%)
Expert Consensus91 (25%)0 (0%)2 (50%)3 (75%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)31 (33%)0 (0%)1 (33%)2 (67%)————

EVD

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Expert Consensus284 (20%)6 (30%)2 (10%)12 (60%)2 (10%)2 (10%)1 (5%)0 (0%)

FLX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 10/26 · Tue 10/27 · Wed 10/28

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner248 (35%)5 (22%)6 (26%)19 (83%)2 (10%)3 (14%)1 (5%)2 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner248 (35%)6 (26%)4 (17%)18 (78%)1 (5%)4 (19%)1 (5%)3 (14%)
Algo 1 Winner249 (39%)7 (30%)5 (22%)21 (91%)1 (5%)5 (23%)1 (5%)3 (14%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner246 (26%)7 (30%)3 (13%)16 (70%)1 (5%)5 (24%)0 (0%)2 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner249 (39%)6 (26%)5 (22%)20 (87%)1 (5%)3 (14%)1 (5%)2 (10%)
Expert Consensus2413 (57%)2 (9%)3 (13%)18 (78%)5 (22%)1 (4%)2 (9%)3 (13%)
ML Favorite (chalk)249 (38%)5 (21%)6 (25%)20 (83%)————

FPK

AI Picks posts graded here: Tue 10/27

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner102 (22%)3 (33%)0 (0%)5 (56%)1 (20%)1 (20%)0 (0%)1 (20%)
Algo 3 Winner101 (12%)4 (50%)0 (0%)5 (62%)1 (25%)1 (25%)0 (0%)1 (25%)
Algo 1 Winner102 (25%)3 (38%)0 (0%)5 (62%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (33%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner103 (33%)3 (33%)1 (11%)7 (78%)2 (33%)2 (33%)0 (0%)2 (33%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner101 (11%)3 (33%)0 (0%)4 (44%)1 (20%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot20 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)————
Expert Consensus100 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
ML Favorite (chalk)102 (20%)5 (50%)0 (0%)7 (70%)————

GPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner314 (21%)3 (16%)3 (16%)10 (53%)1 (6%)2 (12%)1 (6%)0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner314 (21%)3 (16%)2 (11%)9 (47%)1 (6%)2 (12%)1 (6%)1 (6%)
Algo 1 Winner314 (21%)3 (16%)3 (16%)10 (53%)1 (6%)3 (17%)1 (6%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner315 (26%)3 (16%)2 (11%)10 (53%)2 (11%)1 (6%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner314 (21%)3 (16%)0 (0%)7 (37%)0 (0%)2 (11%)0 (0%)2 (11%)
AI Longshot51 (25%)1 (25%)0 (0%)2 (50%)————
Expert Consensus343 (15%)3 (15%)1 (5%)7 (35%)0 (0%)2 (10%)0 (0%)1 (5%)
ML Favorite (chalk)206 (30%)2 (10%)3 (15%)11 (55%)————

IND

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 10/26 · Tue 10/27 · Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner4012 (34%)8 (23%)5 (14%)25 (71%)2 (8%)2 (8%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner407 (21%)7 (21%)6 (18%)20 (61%)1 (4%)2 (8%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Algo 1 Winner4010 (29%)5 (14%)5 (14%)20 (57%)2 (9%)2 (9%)0 (0%)2 (9%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner4010 (30%)8 (24%)5 (15%)23 (70%)0 (0%)3 (12%)0 (0%)4 (15%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner409 (27%)7 (21%)6 (18%)22 (67%)1 (4%)2 (9%)0 (0%)2 (9%)
AI Longshot161 (7%)2 (14%)2 (14%)5 (36%)————
Expert Consensus4515 (38%)8 (20%)8 (20%)31 (78%)1 (2%)2 (5%)1 (2%)7 (18%)
ML Favorite (chalk)4010 (25%)9 (22%)5 (12%)24 (60%)————

KEE

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner224 (40%)1 (10%)0 (0%)5 (50%)2 (25%)0 (0%)1 (12%)0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner223 (30%)2 (20%)0 (0%)5 (50%)1 (14%)1 (14%)0 (0%)1 (14%)
Algo 1 Winner223 (33%)2 (22%)0 (0%)5 (56%)1 (17%)1 (17%)0 (0%)1 (17%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner225 (56%)1 (11%)0 (0%)6 (67%)1 (12%)0 (0%)1 (12%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner222 (22%)3 (33%)0 (0%)5 (56%)0 (0%)2 (29%)0 (0%)1 (14%)
AI Longshot510 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)————
Expert Consensus224 (44%)1 (11%)1 (11%)6 (67%)1 (11%)0 (0%)1 (11%)0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)106 (60%)1 (10%)0 (0%)7 (70%)————

LAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner60 (0%)0 (0%)1 (100%)1 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner60 (0%)1 (100%)0 (0%)1 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner60 (0%)0 (0%)1 (100%)1 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner60 (0%)0 (0%)1 (100%)1 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner60 (0%)0 (0%)1 (100%)1 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot10 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)————
ML Favorite (chalk)20 (0%)0 (0%)1 (50%)1 (50%)————

LRL

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner408 (32%)5 (20%)8 (32%)21 (84%)2 (11%)2 (11%)1 (5%)0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner406 (24%)6 (24%)7 (28%)19 (76%)1 (6%)4 (25%)1 (6%)0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner405 (22%)4 (17%)8 (35%)17 (74%)1 (5%)3 (16%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner4010 (45%)2 (9%)5 (23%)17 (77%)3 (19%)0 (0%)2 (12%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner407 (28%)5 (20%)9 (36%)21 (84%)3 (18%)1 (6%)1 (6%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot441 (3%)2 (6%)2 (6%)5 (16%)————
Expert Consensus525 (23%)4 (18%)7 (32%)16 (73%)1 (5%)3 (14%)0 (0%)2 (9%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3010 (33%)6 (20%)7 (23%)23 (77%)————

LSX

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Expert Consensus3511 (50%)5 (23%)2 (9%)18 (82%)3 (14%)2 (9%)1 (5%)0 (0%)

MNR

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Mon 10/26 · Tue 10/27

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner246 (33%)4 (22%)1 (6%)11 (61%)1 (11%)1 (11%)0 (0%)3 (33%)
Algo 3 Winner248 (44%)4 (22%)2 (11%)14 (78%)2 (20%)1 (10%)0 (0%)4 (40%)
Algo 1 Winner247 (41%)4 (24%)1 (6%)12 (71%)2 (25%)1 (12%)1 (12%)1 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner245 (29%)3 (18%)3 (18%)11 (65%)1 (11%)2 (22%)0 (0%)1 (11%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner248 (44%)4 (22%)1 (6%)13 (72%)2 (17%)1 (8%)0 (0%)1 (8%)
AI Longshot60 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)————
Expert Consensus244 (22%)5 (28%)1 (6%)10 (56%)1 (6%)1 (6%)1 (6%)2 (11%)
ML Favorite (chalk)245 (21%)4 (17%)2 (8%)11 (46%)————

MVR

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 10/26 · Tue 10/27 · Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3212 (40%)5 (17%)2 (7%)19 (63%)4 (16%)1 (4%)0 (0%)1 (4%)
Algo 3 Winner3213 (43%)5 (17%)2 (7%)20 (67%)3 (12%)1 (4%)0 (0%)1 (4%)
Algo 1 Winner3210 (33%)3 (10%)3 (10%)16 (53%)3 (12%)1 (4%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner3212 (39%)1 (3%)2 (6%)15 (48%)3 (12%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner3210 (33%)4 (13%)4 (13%)18 (60%)3 (12%)1 (4%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot20 (0%)1 (50%)0 (0%)1 (50%)————
Expert Consensus3210 (32%)10 (32%)2 (6%)22 (71%)2 (6%)4 (13%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3211 (34%)3 (9%)6 (19%)20 (62%)————

PEN

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner216 (30%)6 (30%)4 (20%)16 (80%)3 (18%)3 (18%)0 (0%)5 (29%)
Algo 3 Winner216 (29%)7 (33%)3 (14%)16 (76%)3 (17%)2 (11%)1 (6%)1 (6%)
Algo 1 Winner215 (28%)7 (39%)2 (11%)14 (78%)3 (18%)2 (12%)0 (0%)3 (18%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner215 (29%)6 (35%)2 (12%)13 (76%)3 (19%)3 (19%)1 (6%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner215 (25%)9 (45%)2 (10%)16 (80%)2 (12%)6 (35%)0 (0%)3 (18%)
Expert Consensus216 (32%)7 (37%)2 (11%)15 (79%)1 (5%)3 (16%)0 (0%)2 (11%)
ML Favorite (chalk)216 (29%)6 (29%)3 (14%)15 (71%)————

PRX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Mon 10/26 · Tue 10/27 · Wed 10/28 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner4513 (39%)3 (9%)6 (18%)22 (67%)1 (3%)2 (6%)0 (0%)3 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner4516 (48%)3 (9%)4 (12%)23 (70%)1 (3%)2 (7%)0 (0%)4 (13%)
Algo 1 Winner4514 (42%)4 (12%)5 (15%)23 (70%)1 (3%)0 (0%)0 (0%)3 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner4511 (34%)3 (9%)7 (22%)21 (66%)0 (0%)1 (4%)0 (0%)5 (18%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner4513 (41%)3 (9%)6 (19%)22 (69%)1 (3%)2 (7%)0 (0%)3 (10%)
AI Longshot20 (0%)1 (50%)0 (0%)1 (50%)————
Expert Consensus4517 (50%)4 (12%)5 (15%)26 (76%)4 (12%)0 (0%)0 (0%)6 (18%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3614 (39%)6 (17%)4 (11%)24 (67%)————

RPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3610 (37%)5 (19%)3 (11%)18 (67%)1 (5%)5 (25%)1 (5%)2 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner369 (33%)6 (22%)3 (11%)18 (67%)3 (15%)4 (20%)0 (0%)3 (15%)
Algo 1 Winner368 (30%)5 (19%)5 (19%)18 (67%)1 (5%)2 (10%)1 (5%)1 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner367 (26%)5 (19%)5 (19%)17 (63%)2 (9%)3 (13%)0 (0%)2 (9%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner368 (30%)5 (19%)5 (19%)18 (67%)2 (9%)2 (9%)1 (5%)1 (5%)
AI Longshot30 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)————
Expert Consensus368 (32%)3 (12%)3 (12%)14 (56%)3 (12%)0 (0%)1 (4%)1 (4%)
ML Favorite (chalk)278 (30%)7 (26%)4 (15%)19 (70%)————

SAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner288 (47%)2 (12%)2 (12%)12 (71%)1 (6%)1 (6%)1 (6%)2 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner287 (41%)3 (18%)2 (12%)12 (71%)1 (6%)1 (6%)0 (0%)3 (19%)
Algo 1 Winner286 (35%)3 (18%)2 (12%)11 (65%)1 (6%)1 (6%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner285 (29%)3 (18%)3 (18%)11 (65%)0 (0%)2 (12%)0 (0%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner288 (47%)3 (18%)2 (12%)13 (76%)1 (6%)1 (6%)0 (0%)3 (19%)
AI Longshot280 (0%)1 (6%)3 (18%)4 (24%)————
Expert Consensus2810 (59%)1 (6%)2 (12%)13 (76%)3 (18%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (12%)
ML Favorite (chalk)186 (33%)2 (11%)3 (17%)11 (61%)————

WOX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/25 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3810 (40%)3 (12%)1 (4%)14 (56%)1 (5%)2 (9%)0 (0%)2 (9%)
Algo 3 Winner386 (24%)3 (12%)2 (8%)11 (44%)0 (0%)1 (4%)0 (0%)2 (9%)
Algo 1 Winner388 (32%)5 (20%)2 (8%)15 (60%)1 (5%)3 (14%)0 (0%)3 (14%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner386 (25%)4 (17%)1 (4%)11 (46%)1 (4%)1 (4%)0 (0%)2 (9%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner385 (21%)9 (38%)1 (4%)15 (62%)0 (0%)3 (13%)0 (0%)2 (9%)
AI Longshot10 (0%)1 (100%)0 (0%)1 (100%)————
Expert Consensus3810 (38%)4 (15%)1 (4%)15 (58%)2 (8%)2 (8%)1 (4%)2 (8%)
ML Favorite (chalk)2713 (48%)4 (15%)1 (4%)18 (67%)————

WRD

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Expert Consensus269 (35%)4 (15%)5 (19%)18 (69%)2 (8%)2 (8%)1 (4%)3 (12%)

ZIA

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Expert Consensus110 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)

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