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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. The report is prepared by one of our Pick Pony analysts, so selections may differ from , which are based on the consensus of all analysts.
Perfect racing conditions are forecast for today’s nine-race card at Finger Lakes Gaming & Racetrack. The weather outlook shows sunny skies with temperatures reaching 53°F and a low of 28°F, accompanied by light northeast winds at 8 mph and minimal humidity at 49%. The dirt track is rated as fast, providing ideal conditions for competitive racing.
Track Conditions and Weather
Morning temperatures started at 32°F with clear skies, warming to the mid-50s by post time. The track surface remains in excellent condition after yesterday’s racing, with no precipitation expected throughout the afternoon. Light northeast winds should have minimal impact on racing, creating fair conditions for all runners across the diverse distance spectrum from 5.5 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles.
Race 1: Starter Optional Claiming – 1 1/8 Miles
Post Time: 1:00 PM – Purse: $20,000
Key Contenders: Olazabal emerges as the logical choice after racing too aggressively early in recent outings. The veteran campaigner by Algorithms shows class advantage in this restricted company and should settle better with tactical riding from Jeremias Flores. Fort Charles presents the primary threat with patient handling from Christian Navarro, showing consistent efforts in similar company.
Secondary Choices: Wild Banker enters off a victory at this track on October 14th, earning $6.42 for the win. The eight-year-old gelding drops significantly in distance from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/8 miles, which may favor his tactical speed. Allure of Money has been competitive since being claimed and shows improvement under new connections.
Pace Analysis: Fort Charles and Wild Banker figure to contest the early pace, with Allure of Money pressing from the outside. This setup should benefit Olazabal’s late-running style, particularly if the pace becomes honest through the long Finger Lakes stretch.
Race 2: Claiming – 6 Furlongs
Post Time: 1:29 PM – Purse: $18,100
Key Contenders: Keigs has maintained sharp form throughout the season for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, who shows excellent statistics with this barn. The four-year-old gelding demonstrates tactical speed suitable for the six-furlong distance. Double Shot offers upset potential if early pace develops favorably.
Secondary Choices: Almendro can factor from the rail with jockey Joel Cruz, who leads the Finger Lakes rider colony with 56 wins from 343 starts and strong earnings of over $1.1 million. The veteran gelding shows consistency in this claiming level.
Longshot Consideration: Fighter Kite with Carlos Camilo represents value at longer odds, particularly if the pace collapses late.
Race 3: Claiming Fillies & Mares – 5.5 Furlongs
Post Time: 1:58 PM – Purse: $13,800
Key Contenders: Five to Two receives top billing from track handicappers for her ability to close strongly in the sprint distance. The four-year-old filly shows tactical speed and finishing kick ideal for the 5.5-furlong trip. Je T’adore seeks her third consecutive victory at this venue, demonstrating excellent local form.
Secondary Choices: Red Butterfly shows consistent form under trainer Michael Ferraro and figures for another top-three finish. The mare’s versatility at various distances makes her a logical contender.
Pace Analysis: The sprint distance should favor horses with tactical speed and finishing ability. Five to Two’s running style appears ideally suited for the distance and competitive level.
Race 4: Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles
Post Time: 2:27 PM – Purse: $13,800
Key Contenders: Good as He Gets receives strong endorsement from track experts based on exceptional current form. The four-year-old gelding shows improvement in recent outings and appears well-suited for the route distance. Neptune Beach provides tactical speed for the longer journey with jockey Christian Navarro.
Secondary Choices: H B Plaisance offers youth advantage as a three-year-old receiving weight allowances. Break the Fall shows consistency for trainer Michael Ferraro’s operation.
Pace Analysis: The 1 1/16-mile distance should allow for tactical development, favoring horses with proven route experience and finishing ability.
Race 5: Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles
Post Time: 2:56 PM – Purse: $13,700
Key Contenders: This competitive field features multiple logical contenders with similar form profiles. Sharpoon shows tactical ability for the route distance, while Skellig Island demonstrates consistency under trainer Stacy Torelli.
Secondary Choices: I Love Cara returns from recent scratches and may offer value if fully recovered. Percy and I’m Solo N in Love provide three-year-old upside with weight allowances.
Longshot Consideration: Eight Sunset Drive with Juan Negron represents potential value at longer odds.
Race 6: Allowance – 5.5 Furlongs
This restricted New York-bred allowance represents a competitive sprint featuring horses that have not won a state-bred race beyond maiden, claiming, or starter company. The 5.5-furlong distance on the fast track favors horses with tactical speed and finishing ability.
Key Contenders
Apollo Code (5/2 ML) emerges as the logical favorite based on recent form and morning line position. The four-year-old gelding by Palace Malice “narrowly missed out last time and looks well-placed to go one better” according to expert handicappers. Equibase Smart Pick specifically recommends a place bet on Apollo Code, indicating strong analytical support. Jockey Jeremias Flores has been riding well recently with 40 wins from 244 starts. Trainer Paul Barrow maintains the gelding in sharp condition for this allowance test.
Puckish (3/1 ML) presents the primary challenge with consistent recent form in similar company. The three-year-old gelding receives a significant weight advantage at 119 pounds compared to older rivals carrying 122. Joel Cruz, the track’s leading rider with 56 wins from 343 starts and over $1.18 million in earnings, provides tactical expertise. The combination of youth, weight relief, and Cruz’s colony-leading skills makes Puckish a formidable threat.
Stars N Stones (4/1 ML) shows consistent form and represents trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, who demonstrates exceptional recent statistics with multiple runners on today’s card. The four-year-old gelding has been “consistent at this level and could challenge” based on recent performances. Luis Perez provides experienced handling for this competitive allowance field.
Secondary Choices
Skyler’s Starship (6/1 ML) offers value potential with Keiber Coa, who ranks among the track’s top jockeys with 57 wins from 329 starts and earnings exceeding $1.24 million. The gelding represents the same Ferraro barn as Stars N Stones, providing solid training foundation for the allowance level.
Pandemic Hero (8/1 ML) brings three-year-old upside with weight allowances and fresh legs for trainer Jose Jimenez. The gelding’s limited experience could work favorably if the pace develops properly in the sprint distance.
Longshot Consideration
Max Foster (12/1 ML) represents potential value for trainer David Oyola with veteran jockey Kevin Navarro, who shows 46 wins from 258 starts. The five-year-old gelding may benefit if the pace collapses late in the sprint.
Pace Analysis
The 5.5-furlong distance should develop into a typical Finger Lakes sprint with early speed horses establishing position while closers attempt late rallies. Puckish and Apollo Code figure to contest the early pace, with Stars N Stones and Skyler’s Starship pressing from secondary positions. This setup may favor horses with tactical speed and finishing ability over pure front-runners.
Key Angles
The New York-bred restriction narrows the competitive field to regional horses familiar with Finger Lakes conditions. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro’s double entry (Stars N Stones and Skyler’s Starship) indicates barn confidence, while the combination represents 16% recent win rate success. Joel Cruz’s colony-leading statistics provide significant edge for Puckish, particularly with the three-year-old’s weight advantage.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Apollo Code represents the logical choice based on recent near-miss performance and expert handicapping support.
Value Play: Puckish offers excellent value at 3/1 morning line with Cruz’s riding and weight advantages creating multiple winning angles.
Exacta Strategy: Box Apollo Code and Puckish for the top two spots, adding Stars N Stones for broader coverage in a competitive allowance field.
Trifecta Angle: Use Apollo Code and Puckish on top with Stars N Stones, Skyler’s Starship, and Pandemic Hero underneath for enhanced payouts in this eight-horse field.
Race 7: Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile 70 Yards
Post Time: 3:54 PM – Purse: $13,500
Competitive maiden field with multiple first-time starters. Ex Machina and Renaissance Man show training indicators, while High Water Mark demonstrates consistent effort in previous attempts.
Race 8: Allowance – 1 Mile 70 Yards
The day’s richest allowance race brings together three-year-olds and upward that have never won two races, creating a competitive field of developing horses and lightly raced campaigners. The 1 mile 70-yard distance on Finger Lakes’ fast track should favor horses with proven route ability and tactical speed.
Key Contenders
Sanzio (3/1 ML) emerges as the logical favorite based on morning line positioning and represents trainer Michael S. Ferraro, who ranks third among track trainers with 34 wins from 138 starts. The three-year-old gelding carries the backing of Luis E. Perez, a reliable rider who shows consistency in route races. Ferraro’s 25% win rate provides strong training foundation for this allowance test.
Kings and Queens (4/1 ML) shows the most impressive recent form analysis, having “won once this prep at Finger Lakes three runs back and finished four lengths off the winner last start at the track”. The three-year-old gelding’s detailed form shows consistent improvement at Finger Lakes, including a September 15th victory where he finished second behind Burn Notice in allowance company. Emanuel De Diego provides tactical riding for trainer James S. Acquilano, whose operation shows steady production throughout the meet.
Corvus (9/2 ML) represents excellent value as a three-year-old colt with upside for trainer Jose M. Jimenez. Jockey Reylu Gutierrez brings experience in competitive allowance races, and the morning line suggests potential overlay opportunities. The colt’s breeding and development pattern indicate room for improvement at this level.
Secondary Choices
Incantation (5/1 ML) brings seasoned experience as a five-year-old horse carrying 124 pounds against younger three-year-olds at 121. Christopher Elliott provides veteran handling for trainer H. James Bond. The gelding’s maturity advantage could prove decisive if pace develops favorably in the route distance.
Lucas’s Mischief (8/1 ML) shows intriguing Equibase Smart Pick support with earnings averaging $3,956 per start and a top E speed figure of 82. The three-year-old colt by Into Mischief carries breeding credentials and recent form improvements for trainer Leandro Moreno-Barban. Inoel Beato provides tactical speed suitable for the distance.
Jake’s Orchard (12/1 ML) offers potential value as a four-year-old gelding with weight advantage and tactical speed for trainer Stacy Torelli. Heman K. Harkie brings experience in competitive allowance company, making this gelding a logical longshot consideration.
Longshot Considerations
One Morerep (15/1 ML) represents trainer Paul W. Barrow, who leads the colony with 37 wins from 242 starts, demonstrating exceptional consistency. The three-year-old gelding with Andre Shivnarine Worrie provides significant value potential if the pace sets up favorably.
Mr. Sugar Daddy (15/1 ML) also represents the leading Barrow barn with jockey Jeremias Flores, creating potential value at longer odds. The three-year-old’s breeding and barn support warrant consideration in multi-race wagers.
Pace Analysis
The 1 mile 70-yard distance should allow for tactical development with early pace likely contested by Sanzio and Kings and Queens. Corvus and Incantation figure to track the early leaders, while Lucas’s Mischief and the longshots may sit further back awaiting late opportunities. The route distance favors horses with proven stamina and finishing ability over pure speed types.
Key Angles
Trainer statistics strongly favor Michael S. Ferraro (Sanzio) with his 34 wins from 138 starts and Paul W. Barrow’s colony-leading success rate. The three-year-old weight advantage of 121 pounds versus older horses at 124 creates significant handicapping angles, particularly for Kings and Queens, Corvus, and Lucas’s Mischief.
Expert analysis identifies Kings and Queens as showing the most consistent local form with his recent Finger Lakes victory and competitive efforts in similar company. The gelding’s familiarity with track conditions and distance represents a key advantage.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Kings and Queens offers excellent value at 4/1 with proven local form and tactical advantages.
Value Play: Corvus at 9/2 represents strong overlay potential with three-year-old upside and quality connections.
Exacta Strategy: Box Kings and Queens with Sanzio and Corvus for coverage of the top three choices with different running styles.
Trifecta Approach: Use Kings and Queens and Corvus on top with Sanzio, Incantation, and Lucas’s Mischief underneath for broader coverage in this competitive allowance field.
Longshot Special: One Morerep at 15/1 with leading trainer Paul Barrow creates exceptional value opportunity for multi-race wagers and win betting at generous odds.
Race 9: Claiming Fillies & Mares – 6 Furlongs
Post Time: 4:52 PM – Purse: $14,000
Competitive field of older fillies and mares. Ace Up Her Sleeve returns from scratches, while Luna Loca and Imalottalady provide consistent effort in similar company.
Jockey Notes
Joel Cruz leads the colony with impressive statistics: 56 wins from 343 starts with earnings exceeding $1.18 million. His 16% win rate and strong in-the-money percentage make him a key factor in multiple races today.
Christian Navarro shows solid form with 46 wins from 258 starts and strong earnings. His tactical riding style suits the route races on today’s card.
Keiber Coa provides veteran experience with multiple mounts, showing particular effectiveness with trainer M. Anthony Ferraro.
Trainer Notes
M. Anthony Ferraro demonstrates exceptional form with 7 wins from 43 recent starts, representing a 16% win rate. His stable shows consistent competitiveness across multiple races today.
James Acquilano maintains steady production with solid win percentages and strong recent form indicators.
Samuel Morales shows improvement with recent training adjustments and tactical changes.
Best Wagering Strategies
Focus on win bets for races with clear standouts: Olazabal in Race 1, Keigs in Race 2, Five to Two in Race 3, and Good as He Gets in Race 4. These selections represent the strongest handicapping angles based on form, connections, and track expert analysis.
For broader coverage, utilize exacta boxes in competitive races where multiple horses show winning chances. The allowance races (6 and 8) offer opportunities for higher payouts with careful selection of improving horses under strong connections.
Daily double combinations linking the strongest selections provide enhanced value opportunities, particularly connecting Race 1 (Olazabal) with Race 2 (Keigs) for the early double.
