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Del Mar Racetrack – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 5, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Race Day Overview

Del Mar's Saturday, September 5, 2026 card is a deep, stakes-laden program built around quality 2-year-old races and solid supporting allowances and maidens, typical of the closing weeks of the summer meet. The Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf (Race 7) brings together a well-regarded group of colts led by Shadow Nation (5) and Observed (3), both coming off sharp debut wins and viewed as the main local prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. The Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante (Race 10) is the traditional championship race for juvenile fillies at Del Mar, and handicappers broadly agree that Bob Baffert's Miss Monica (9) is the filly to beat, with a deep supporting cast that includes Panda Listen (1), Dear Diary (2), and Free Closer (5).

Supporting the stakes are several competitive maiden special weight races and allowance optional claiming events, most featuring well-bred 2-year-olds and lightly raced turf routers that fit Del Mar's boutique summer profile. With Baffert's 2-year-olds continuing to exert strong influence in the juvenile division and several other top barns pointing horses to this weekend's stakes, wagering interest should be strong and horizontal pools particularly attractive.

Weather and Track Conditions

Local coverage of the weekend stakes at Del Mar does not raise any weather-related concerns, and the meet through late August has predominantly featured a fast main track and firm turf. The Del Mar Juvenile Turf (Race 7) is scheduled for one mile on the turf with no indication of a surface change, and the Tranquility Lake Stakes (Race 8) and Del Mar Debutante (Race 10) are expected to be contested on a fast dirt track, consistent with the typical late-summer pattern at Del Mar.

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Meet summary information through August 31 indicates a modest preference for horses with tactical speed in Del Mar dirt sprints, with front-end and pace-pressing types performing slightly better than deep closers. Dirt routes have played more evenly, but forward placement remains an advantage when the pace is not overly contested. On the turf, particularly at one mile and 1 1/16 miles, stalkers and mid-pack runners have done well, often capitalizing on pace pressure among front runners without needing to come from too far back.

Inside and middle posts have been slightly preferred in dirt sprints, while on the turf at one mile the draw is generally fair, with only a mild historical concern for extreme wide posts when the rail settings tighten. These tendencies should inform pace projections and trip expectations, particularly in the stakes races where field sizes are larger and pace scenarios more complex.

RACE 1 — Post 4:30/3:30/2:30/(1:30) — 1320f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $80,000

Pace Analysis

Race 1 is a six-furlong maiden special weight for state-breds, and on paper it features multiple potential pace players. Smashing Machine (3) from Bob Baffert's barn is the obvious pace focal point; Baffert typically equips his debuting or lightly raced sprinting 2-year-olds to show sharp early speed, and Smashing Machine (3) is likely to be asked to secure a prominent position from the break. Mark Glatt has two entries, Cheever (4) and Strike A Match (5), and Glatt's sprint maidens often show tactical speed with the ability to stalk and pounce rather than having to set the pace; Cheever (4) and Strike A Match (5) both project to sit close, just off any early duel.

On The Burner (2) with Joel Rosario tends to benefit from a stalking or mid-pack trip, and Rosario is adept at keeping horses in the clear while saving just enough ground, suggesting On The Burner (2) could sit just behind the top flight and try to finish late. Practical Jack (6) and Charisma (1) appear more likely to be tracking types or mid-pack runners, depending on how aggressively they break. Overall, the race projects a solid, but not suicidal, pace with Smashing Machine (3) and Strike A Match (5) as primary pace engines and Cheever (4) close up.

Key Contenders

Smashing Machine (3) is a key contender by virtue of trainer profile and likely pace advantage. Baffert has dominated juvenile sprint divisions at Del Mar, and his first-time starters and second-time starters routinely show strong speed and professionalism. With Drayden Van Dyke aboard, Smashing Machine (3) should be sent to assert position and take advantage of any rail bias toward speed that may manifest.

Strike A Match (5) for Mark Glatt looks like a major player. Glatt has been effective with maiden sprinters and paired with a capable rider like Jaramillo, Strike A Match (5) has the profile of a horse that can sit just off Smashing Machine (3) and finish strongly. Cheever (4), also from Glatt, must be respected as a stablemate with similar style; the barn-entry angle, where either horse could be live, increases the chance that one of the Glatt runners is heavily involved in the outcome.

On The Burner (2) with Rosario looks like the primary off-the-pace threat. Rosario often excels in maiden races where he can time a late run, and if the two Glatt horses and Smashing Machine (3) press each other early, On The Burner (2) could be poised to capitalize.

Secondary Choices

Practical Jack (6) for Val Brinkerhoff has a profile of a grinding type that can pick up pieces if the pace moderates or if one or more of the primary contenders fail to fire. Brinkerhoff's maidens can be overlooked at the windows but occasionally outrun their odds at Del Mar, especially when they can establish or sit behind a moderate pace.

Charisma (1) may benefit from the rail draw if he can break cleanly and hold position. If inside speed is not overly advantaged, Charisma (1) might still need improvement to challenge the top group, but the ground-saving trip in a sprint always holds some appeal.

Longshots

Charisma (1) and Practical Jack (6) both qualify as longshots with plausible upside if they improve on any prior performances or stepping-up works, but they appear a notch below the top quartet based on trainer patterns and likely trip. Charisma (1) needs to avoid getting shuffled back along the inside, while Practical Jack (6) must show the ability to quicken.

Selections

Win: Smashing Machine (3)

Place: Strike A Match (5)

Show: On The Burner (2)

Wagering approach: Use Smashing Machine (3) and Strike A Match (5) as A-level horses in early Pick 5 constructions, with On The Burner (2) as a backup. In the verticals, a simple exacta box Smashing Machine (3) and Strike A Match (5), along with a trifecta using Smashing Machine (3), Strike A Match (5), On The Burner (2) over those three plus Cheever (4) and Practical Jack (6), is a logical structure.

RACE 2 — Post 5:00/4:00/3:00/(2:00) — 2420f | T | AO | OClm 50000n1x | BUN | Purse $81,000

Pace Analysis

Race 2 is a long turf route at approximately 1 1/2 miles, optional claiming with n1x conditions, and pace in these races is often moderate to slow, with tactics playing a significant role. None Above The Law (6) has shown the ability to sit close to the pace in prior routes, and from Peter Miller's barn with Berrios aboard, None Above The Law (6) may be placed forwardly without necessarily being hard-sent.

Balladeer (3) has route experience and could be asked to show speed from a mid-gate draw, while Balnikhov (5) and Path To Power (7) for Phil D'Amato are more likely to be mid-pack closers, using the stretch run to finish strongly. Factor Analysis (1) and Amplitude (2) could contribute to pace if sent, but their optimal role may be in stalking positions. Stamp My Passport (4) has some tactical speed but figures to be around mid-pack early.

Expect a controlled pace with one or two mild pace setters, making turn-of-foot and stamina more important than early speed.

Key Contenders

None Above The Law (6) stands out as a key contender, combining tactical speed, proven turf route ability, and a trainer-jockey combination highly effective in California routes. With Peter Miller often placing his turf runners in advantageous spots, None Above The Law (6) should work out a ground-saving, forwardly placed trip.

Balnikhov (5) for D'Amato is a serious player. D'Amato is one of the premier turf trainers in California, and Balnikhov (5) projects as the type of horse who can settle mid-pack and produce a sustained rally if the pace is honest enough. The presence of Umberto Rispoli, an excellent turf rider, further boosts confidence in Balnikhov (5).

Path To Power (7), also from D'Amato, is another key contender with a similar profile. Juan Hernandez is highly adept at judging turf pace and should give Path To Power (7) every chance to launch a well-timed move.

Secondary Choices

Balladeer (3) may be the most interesting secondary contender, especially if he is allowed to control a moderate pace. For a long turf route, a lone or relaxed front-runner can become dangerous, and the connections may opt to use his stamina to their advantage.

Stamp My Passport (4) for Leonard Powell fits as an under-the-radar type that could sneak into the exotics if he settles and relaxes early. Amplitude (2) for John Sadler and Factor Analysis (1) for Hess Jr. both have the potential to outperform their morning line odds if they show improvement or relish the extra distance.

Longshots

Factor Analysis (1) on the rail, and Amplitude (2) from the inside, could be classified as longshots with inside-trip potential. Stamp My Passport (4) is similarly a longshot whose chances improve if he can latch on to a favorable pace scenario. All three will require either a pace meltdown or significant step forward to threaten the top tier but are live for minor awards.

Selections

Win: None Above The Law (6)

Place: Balnikhov (5)

Show: Path To Power (7)

Wagering approach: In multi-race bets, anchor None Above The Law (6) and Balnikhov (5) as A-level, with Path To Power (7) as strong backup. Use Balladeer (3) and Stamp My Passport (4) as C-level coverage. For verticals, key None Above The Law (6) and Balnikhov (5) in exactas and trifectas over Path To Power (7), Balladeer (3), and Stamp My Passport (4).

RACE 3 — Post 5:32/4:32/3:32/(2:32) — 1320f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $80,000

Pace Analysis

Race 3 is another six-furlong maiden special weight for state-breds, featuring several high-profile connections. First Or Last (4) from Doug O'Neill's barn projects to show speed, and O'Neill's sharp maidens often break running, particularly when drawn toward the middle. Cherry Cider (3) for Baffert and High Society U (2) for McCarthy also have profiles suggesting early speed or pressing tactics.

Street Swindler (1) from Glatt and Convo (7) for Sadler may sit just off the lead, while Banzai Betty (5) and Slice (6) appear more like mid-pack or off-the-pace types. Pace should be lively, with First Or Last (4), Cherry Cider (3), and High Society U (2) forming the early vanguard.

Key Contenders

First Or Last (4) appears to be the key contender. O'Neill has a strong record with state-bred maidens at Del Mar, and with Kazushi Kimura riding, First Or Last (4) is likely to show speed and resilience. Cherry Cider (3), representing Baffert, commands respect; the barn's juveniles are typically ready for top effort at Del Mar, and Juan Hernandez is one of the most trusted riders for aggressive placement.

High Society U (2) from McCarthy offers a blend of speed and finishing power. McCarthy has done well with young horses in California, and a favorable trip from the inside plus tactical speed makes High Society U (2) a serious win candidate.

Secondary Choices

Street Swindler (1) with Jaramillo and Convo (7) with Rosario are logical secondary contenders. Street Swindler (1) may secure a rail-hugging stalking trip, while Convo (7) has the benefit of Rosario's patient strength, which can be especially valuable if the pace collapses late.

Banzai Betty (5) for Papaprodromou could pick up a minor share with a well-timed rally. Slice (6) for McCarthy rounds out the plausible mid-pack type, possibly benefiting if stablemate High Society U (2) softens the pace but still falters late.

Longshots

Banzai Betty (5) and Slice (6) are longshots that can fill out exotics if they improve. Banzai Betty (5) might be overlooked due to perceived barn form, but Papaprodromou has sprung upsets in Del Mar maiden races. Slice (6) must demonstrate more tactical speed but has the benefit of Ricardo Gonzalez, who can sometimes coax an underrated performance in sprints.

Selections

Win: First Or Last (4)

Place: Cherry Cider (3)

Show: High Society U (2)

Wagering approach: Construct early Pick 4/5 tickets including First Or Last (4) and Cherry Cider (3) as primary A's, with High Society U (2) and Convo (7) as backups. For vertical wagers, consider exactas First Or Last (4) over Cherry Cider (3), High Society U (2), and Convo (7), and trifectas keying First Or Last (4) on top with those rivals and Street Swindler (1) underneath.

RACE 4 — Post 6:02/5:02/4:02/(3:02) — 1870f | T | AO | OClm 50000n1x | BUN | Purse $81,000

Pace Analysis

Race 4 is a 1 1/16-mile turf optional claiming event. On The Whim (7) for Dean Pederson appears to be one of the more likely pace influences, with Pederson's turf routers often showing tactical speed and Tiago Pereira capable of putting them in the race early. Knight To King (3), from Doug O'Neill, and El Rey Rey (5) could press the pace from just behind.

Shamrock Glitter (1) and Irish Prophet (4), both trained by Neil Drysdale, fit more as stalking to mid-pack types, conserving energy early before launching a stretch bid. Sir Percival (6) may drop out toward the rear, looking for a late run, while Lyle The Crocodile (2) for D'Amato figures to adopt a mid-pack stalking style. Pace should be honest but not overly hot, leaving room for tactical types to flourish.

Key Contenders

On The Whim (7) is a major contender. Pederson has done well at times with turf runners, and a forward trip from the outside, if controlled, can be highly effective. On The Whim (7) has the right kind of tactical speed to either control or sit just off the pace, and current allowance form is critical at this level.

Lyle The Crocodile (2) for D'Amato is a key contender with a strong turf trainer behind him. Pairing with Rispoli would normally be ideal, but here he is ridden by Rispoli on Lyle The Crocodile (2) only if that pairing is confirmed; regardless, D'Amato's turf conditioning suggests Lyle The Crocodile (2) will be well-placed and capable of a strong finish.

Shamrock Glitter (1) and Irish Prophet (4) from Drysdale form a strong stable pairing. Drysdale's runners often improve with distance and experience, and a patient approach from the rail for Shamrock Glitter (1), plus a mid-gate stalking trip for Irish Prophet (4), makes both live.

Secondary Choices

Knight To King (3) with Berrios and El Rey Rey (5) with Kimura are secondary contenders. Knight To King (3) can sit in the first flight and get first run on the deeper closers, while El Rey Rey (5), for Hector Palma, could offer value if he drifts above his morning line.

Sir Percival (6) is a deep closer type whose path to success depends on pace pressure and trip. If the pace is more contested than expected, Sir Percival (6) could be passing tired horses late.

Longshots

Sir Percival (6) qualifies as a longshot with upside if the race devolves into a more demanding stamina test than anticipated. If ridden aggressively early, some of the pace players could soften one another up, allowing Sir Percival (6) to run late. El Rey Rey (5) could also be considered a longshot in broader multi-race sequences, providing a bit of coverage against chalk.

Selections

Win: On The Whim (7)

Place: Lyle The Crocodile (2)

Show: Shamrock Glitter (1)

Wagering approach: Emphasize On The Whim (7) and Lyle The Crocodile (2) in horizontal wagers. In exactas and trifectas, use On The Whim (7) and Lyle The Crocodile (2) over Shamrock Glitter (1), Irish Prophet (4), Knight To King (3), and El Rey Rey (5). Consider a saver bet including Sir Percival (6) underneath in tris and supers.

RACE 5 — Post 6:32/5:32/4:32/(3:32) — 1320f | D | MO | Moc 150000 | AON | Purse $70,000

Pace Analysis

Race 5 is a six-furlong maiden optional claimer at a rich 150,000 tag, often attracting high-quality yet slightly outclassed or tricky types. Character (7) from Peter Miller and Another Warrior (11), also from Miller, both look like speed or pressing types. Miller's sprinters are frequently aggressive early, and with Hernandez on Character (7) and Rosario on Another Warrior (11), both could be near the front.

Cigar And Espresso (5) for Victor Garcia should show some tactical speed, and High Ambition (10) for Jose D'Angelo could be in the early mix. Fractions should be brisk, with Character (7) and Another Warrior (11) expected to vie for the lead, while several others try to sit just behind and strike.

Key Contenders

Character (7) is a key contender in this spot. Miller's record with high-priced maiden claimers is strong, and with Juan Hernandez, Character (7) likely secures a prominent position and has the ability to see out the trip. Another Warrior (11), as a stablemate, is also a major player; the fact that Miller runs two suggests intention to win this race, and Rosario's presence on Another Warrior (11) is notable.

Cigar And Espresso (5) for Garcia and Rispoli is an important contender. The combination of Rispoli's patient strength with Garcia's ability to spot competitive maidens can be potent, especially if the Miller pair hook up and soften one another.

High Ambition (10) with Berrios for D'Angelo also merits serious respect. This barn can be aggressive with placement, and High Ambition (10) may show more speed than expected.

Secondary Choices

Free Lunch (4) for O'Neill, Magic Wave (6) for Palma, Liberty N Justice (8) for Papaprodromou, and Grand Indian (9) for Kitchingman all qualify as secondary contenders with outside chance to upset or hit the board. Free Lunch (4) may sit off the speed and make one run; Magic Wave (6) could be pace-adjacent and in a good spot if inside speed falters.

Double D Lite (2) with Mike Smith and Warrior Saint (3) with Kimura are more speculative types but still have potential to improve. Fractions and trip will dictate their fate.

Longshots

Fractions and trip could tilt this race, making some longshots attractive underneath. Fractions that are too hot could set things up for off-the-pace runners such as Liberty N Justice (8) and Grand Indian (9), both of whom can rally if the leaders tire.

Fractious (1) is a longshot from the rail, needing a clean break and pace meltdown to exceed expectations. Warrior Saint (3) and Double D Lite (2) require step forward and racing luck.

Selections

Win: Character (7)

Place: Another Warrior (11)

Show: Cigar And Espresso (5)

Wagering approach: In the mid-card Pick 4, consider leaning on Character (7) and Another Warrior (11) as A's, with Cigar And Espresso (5) and High Ambition (10) as backups. Exacta players can box Character (7) and Another Warrior (11), and add Cigar And Espresso (5) in trifectas.

RACE 6 — Post 7:02/6:02/5:02/(4:02) — 1430f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $80,000

Pace Analysis

Race 6 is a seven-furlong state-bred maiden special, a tricky distance that tests both speed and stamina. Mickey (1) from Brinkerhoff, Hemet Gold (4) from Palma, Cornealeusthegreat (7) from D'Amato, and Zakiel (8) from Eurton are all candidates to show speed or pressing style.

Mickey (1) with Rosario likely breaks sharply and either goes to the lead or sits in the pocket, depending on the early tempo. Hemet Gold (4) and Cornealeusthegreat (7) appear like pace-pressers, while Zakiel (8) may prefer a stalking role with Hernandez timing the move.

Wicked Spud (9) and Miguelito (3) seem more like deep closers, and Big Vengeance (10) could track mid-pack. Pace should be honest, possibly faster than average if multiple riders choose aggressive tactics.

Key Contenders

Zakiel (8) stands out as a key contender. Eurton's maidens at Del Mar can be very live, and pairing with Juan Hernandez at seven furlongs is a strong angle. Zakiel (8) likely sits just behind the speed and makes a strong, sustained bid.

Mickey (1) with Rosario is another main threat. Inside draw, Rosario's hands, and Brinkerhoff's willingness to take a shot with state-bred maidens all suggest Mickey (1) will be forwardly placed and dangerous if the pace is controlled.

Cornealeusthegreat (7) for D'Amato and Rispoli should be included among key contenders as well. D'Amato's conditioning could help Cornealeusthegreat (7) finish strongly, and Rispoli's patience can allow him to avoid getting caught up in an early duel.

Secondary Choices

Hemet Gold (4) for Palma and Strike It Solo (5) for Bill McLean provide secondary layers of depth. Hemet Gold (4) might have the speed to challenge for the lead, and if the track is favoring speed, he could be very dangerous. Strike It Solo (5) with Frey could sit mid-pack and launch a late run.

Blindly Loyal (2) for Simon Callaghan and Henie In Black (6) for Galvin are mid-level threats whose chances improve if the leaders tire. Callaghan is capable with young horses, and Blindly Loyal (2) could show more than the morning line suggests.

Longshots

Miguelito (3), Wicked Spud (9), and Big Vengeance (10) are longshots. Miguelito (3) with Herrera could be outrun early but pass tired horses late. Wicked Spud (9) and Big Vengeance (10), both with riders capable of aggressive tactics, may need a perfect trip to become involved in the outcome but can add value beneath.

Selections

Win: Zakiel (8)

Place: Mickey (1)

Show: Cornealeusthegreat (7)

Wagering approach: In horizontals, treat Zakiel (8) as a primary single candidate if you have strong convictions elsewhere, or pair Zakiel (8) and Mickey (1) together as A's. In exactas, focus on Zakiel (8) over Mickey (1), Cornealeusthegreat (7), and Hemet Gold (4), and include Strike It Solo (5) in trifecta combinations.

RACE 7 — Post 7:33/6:33/5:33/(4:33) — 1760f | T | G3 | DMRJvTrf-G3 | AON | Purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

The Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf (Race 7) is a one-mile turf test for 2-year-olds and has been highlighted in multiple racing outlets as a key juvenile turf prep. Observed (3) and Golden Sentry (4) have tactical speed, while Shadow Nation (5) and Hoaxer (6) can sit close or just off the pace. Off In The Corner (7) and Automatic Press (8) from Peter Miller, plus Cosmic Charlie (1) and Itinerary (2), offer varying degrees of pace and mid-pack presence.

Given juvenile tendencies, the pace should be honest. Cosmic Charlie (1) from the rail may be urged to secure position, Observed (3) and Golden Sentry (4) could press, and Shadow Nation (5) might be content to track in the two- or three-path. Hoaxer (6) has enough speed to avoid traffic while not being committed to a front-running trip.

Key Contenders

Consensus among handicappers strongly points to Shadow Nation (5) as the horse to beat, with several ranking him as the top pick, followed by Hoaxer (6) and Golden Sentry (4). Shadow Nation (5) enters off a sharp debut win and has been established as the early favorite at around 5-2 on some lines, reflecting confidence in his ability to stretch out to a mile.

Hoaxer (6), from Bob Baffert's barn, is a major contender. Despite Baffert being best known for dirt runners, his juveniles can be effective on turf, and Hoaxer (6) has drawn positive attention in pre-race analysis as a key challenger to Shadow Nation (5). Golden Sentry (4), for Carla Gaines, is another top contender, combining tactical speed and perceived turf aptitude. Gaines has had success placing turf runners in graded stakes spots, and Golden Sentry (4) appears poised for a strong effort.

Observed (3) for Jonathan Thomas is regarded as a principal threat as well. Thomas excels with turf horses, and Observed (3) arrives off an impressive win that suggests he belongs with this caliber. With Juan Hernandez aboard, Observed (3) should get a well-judged trip.

Secondary Choices

Itinerary (2) for McCarthy, Cosmic Charlie (1) for Mullins, and Off In The Corner (7) and Automatic Press (8) for Miller are secondary contenders with legitimate upset potential. Itinerary (2) has drawn attention as a nicely-bred colt capable of improvement, and Rispoli's turf acumen enhances his chances. Cosmic Charlie (1) with Leparoux may save ground and could slip into the exotics if the pace is fair.

Off In The Corner (7) and Automatic Press (8) form a Miller duo that could be dangerous if the pace scenario tilts in their favor. Miller's turf juveniles often outrun their odds when they receive favorable trips.

Missed Fortune (9) for Papaprodromou completes the field, and though morning lines make him a longshot, his inclusion in graded stakes suggests some internal confidence.

Longshots

Cosmic Charlie (1), Itinerary (2), Off In The Corner (7), Automatic Press (8), and Missed Fortune (9) are all longshots relative to the top four, though their chances to hit the board vary. Itinerary (2) and Cosmic Charlie (1) have the best profiles to sneak into the trifecta, while Off In The Corner (7), Automatic Press (8), and Missed Fortune (9) may be most useful underneath in supers.

Selections

Win: Shadow Nation (5)

Place: Hoaxer (6)

Show: Golden Sentry (4)

Wagering approach: Structure horizontals around Shadow Nation (5) and Hoaxer (6) as A-level options, with Golden Sentry (4) and Observed (3) as backups. For vertical wagers, consider exactas Shadow Nation (5) over Hoaxer (6), Golden Sentry (4), and Observed (3), and trifectas keying Shadow Nation (5) and Hoaxer (6) on top with Golden Sentry (4), Observed (3), and Itinerary (2) underneath.

RACE 8 — Post 8:03/7:03/6:03/(5:03) — 1760f | D | N | TranqLakeL100k | BUM | Purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

Race 8 is the Tranquility Lake Stakes, a one-mile dirt event for older fillies and mares, and often serves as a useful stepping-stone for fall campaigns. Howin (6) from Baffert projects to be part of the early pace mix, with Baffert's older stakes mares frequently showing tactical to front-running speed. So There She Was (1) for O'Neill could show speed from the rail; Magnificat (2) and Amorita (8) for Mandella may take stalking or pressing roles, while Catalina Cocktail (4) and Surf Song (5) could be mid-pack closers.

Our Moonlight (7) for Pederson and Rosie Jeeks (9) for Drysdale lean more toward off-the-pace styles, as does Lavender Love (10) for Baltas. The pace should be genuine, dictated by Howin (6), So There She Was (1), and potentially Magnificat (2), with others sorting themselves behind.

Key Contenders

Howin (6) is the likely key contender and potential pace controller. Baffert's older fillies often combine speed with class, and with Juan Hernandez aboard, Howin (6) could either make the lead or sit just off and take over on the far turn.

Magnificat (2) and Amorita (8), both from Mandella, are strong contenders. Mandella's approach to stakes mares emphasizes fitness and finishing strength, and Magnificat (2) paired with Rosario, plus Amorita (8) with Kimura, gives the barn a potent one-two punch. Magnificat (2) may sit just behind Howin (6), while Amorita (8) could be placed slightly farther back and make a more sustained run.

Lavender Love (10) for Baltas is another important contender. Baltas is capable with route mares, and Lavender Love (10) may enjoy a stalking, outside trip that keeps her out of trouble. If pace is contested, Lavender Love (10) could be first to pounce.

Secondary Choices

So There She Was (1) from O'Neill can be considered a secondary contender with rail speed and potential to hang around for a share. Catalina Cocktail (4) for Sadler and Surf Song (5) for Powell add depth; both barns know how to spot stakes-level mares, and each could find a way into the exotics with the right trip.

Our Moonlight (7) and Rosie Jeeks (9) are secondary closers whose chances rise if the top-tier speed players go too fast early.

Longshots

So There She Was (1), Catalina Cocktail (4), Surf Song (5), Our Moonlight (7), Rosie Jeeks (9), and even Lavender Love (10), depending on the betting, could be longshots in the win pool but have realistic chances underneath. Given the likely contested pace, closers and stalkers like Lavender Love (10), Our Moonlight (7), and Rosie Jeeks (9) may be best used in trifectas and superfectas.

Selections

Win: Howin (6)

Place: Magnificat (2)

Show: Amorita (8)

Wagering approach: In late multi-race wagers, treat Howin (6) and Magnificat (2) as A's, with Amorita (8) and Lavender Love (10) as backups. For vertical betting, exactas featuring Howin (6) over Magnificat (2), Amorita (8), and Lavender Love (10) make sense, with trifectas including So There She Was (1), Surf Song (5), and Our Moonlight (7) underneath.

RACE 9 — Post 8:33/7:33/6:33/(5:33) — 1760f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | AOF | Purse $80,000

Pace Analysis

Race 9 is a state-bred one-mile turf maiden special. Candy Cole (1) and Domain Expansion (2) from inside draws may show some early speed, while Starfinder (4) for Miller and Graduation Day (6) for D'Amato project as pace or pressing types. D'yquem (7), Dash (8), and Forewarn (9) from Mandella, plus Vendetta (11), are likely mid-pack or off-the-pace runners.

Given turf bias toward stalkers and tactical closers, the most effective style may be to sit third or fourth early, then finish strongly. Starfinder (4) and Graduation Day (6) can apply pressure to Candy Cole (1) and Domain Expansion (2), setting up a battle that may benefit horses like D'yquem (7), Dash (8), and Forewarn (9).

Key Contenders

Graduation Day (6) for D'Amato and Hernandez stands out among the key contenders. D'Amato's turf maidens often show strong finishing ability, and Graduation Day (6) appears tailored for this one-mile configuration. Forewarn (9) for Mandella and Rispoli is another top threat, combining a patient training style and a rider who excels with late-running turf horses.

Dash (8) for McCarthy and Gonzalez adds to the quality at the top. McCarthy's turf maidens have drawn positive attention at Del Mar recently, and Dash (8) can sit mid-pack and launch a decisive kick.

Vendetta (11) for Mandella and Kimura is a key contender from the outside. While wide posts can be tricky, Kimura's timing and Mandella's conditioning can offset some of the draw disadvantage.

Secondary Choices

Candy Cole (1) on the rail and Starfinder (4) for Miller can be secondary contenders, particularly if inside speed is holding. Candy Cole (1) might enjoy a ground-saving trip, and Starfinder (4) may get first run on the deeper closers.

Blue Sky Rain (5) for Blacker and Domain Expansion (2) for Powell are mid-level threats. Both trainers have had turf maiden success, and a well-timed move could earn them minor awards.

Mysweetvalentine (3) and Miyako Pauma (10) are more speculative but could be used underneath if you expect a chaotic race.

Longshots

Mysweetvalentine (3), Domain Expansion (2), Candy Cole (1), Blue Sky Rain (5), Miyako Pauma (10), and Starfinder (4) are all capable of filling out exotics at prices if the race becomes trip-dependent, as turf maidens often do. Candy Cole (1) and Starfinder (4) have the best chance among these to step forward if they secure favorable trips.

Selections

Win: Graduation Day (6)

Place: Forewarn (9)

Show: Dash (8)

Wagering approach: In horizontals, use Graduation Day (6) and Forewarn (9) as A's, with Dash (8) and Vendetta (11) as backups. For vertical wagers, structure exactas Graduation Day (6) and Forewarn (9) over Dash (8), Vendetta (11), Candy Cole (1), and Starfinder (4), and use Blue Sky Rain (5) and D'yquem (7) in deeper trifecta and superfecta tickets.

RACE 10 — Post 9:03/8:03/7:03/(6:03) — 1540f | D | G1 | DMrDeb-G1 | AOF | Purse $300,000

Pace Analysis

The Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante is a seven-furlong dirt stakes for 2-year-old fillies and is the marquee event of the day. Miss Monica (9) from Baffert, Holmby (8) also from Baffert, and Fast Amy (10) from Walsh are all candidates to show strong early speed. Miss Monica (9) has been widely noted as the early favorite and likely pace player, fitting Baffert's profile of fast juvenile fillies.

Panda Listen (1) from Walsh, Dear Diary (2) and Well Versed (7) from Mandella, Avalon Rose (3) from Hess Jr., Crazy Hot Mess (4) from Miller, and Free Closer (5) from McCarthy all have varied styles, but several, particularly Crazy Hot Mess (4) and Free Closer (5), could press the pace. For The Win (6) from Weaver may sit mid-pack and hope to make one strong run.

The pace should be swift and contested, with Miss Monica (9), Holmby (8), Crazy Hot Mess (4), and Fast Amy (10) all potentially vying for early control. Stalkers and off-the-pace types could capitalize if the leaders overdo it.

Key Contenders

Miss Monica (9) is the clear key contender and filly to beat according to multiple handicappers and previews. She is regarded as Baffert's primary bullet, with speed, pedigree, and talent aligning for this seven-furlong trip. With Juan Hernandez aboard, Miss Monica (9) is expected to be prominently placed and difficult to pass if she handles the distance and turns with maturity.

Holmby (8), also from Baffert, is a major contender as the barnmate that could either press or sit just outside Miss Monica (9). Baffert's historical dominance in the Del Mar Debutante has been documented, and his fillies often run huge in this spot.

Dear Diary (2) for Mandella and Mike Smith is a key contender with a more measured style. Mandella's fillies often improve with experience, and Dear Diary (2) could sit just behind the leaders, providing a classy alternative if the pace is too hot. Panda Listen (1) for Walsh and Kimura and Free Closer (5) for McCarthy and Rispoli are also highly regarded fillies, both featured prominently in pre-race analysis. Panda Listen (1) may be best suited to a stalking trip, while Free Closer (5) could be a dangerous mid-pack closer.

Secondary Choices

Avalon Rose (3) for Hess Jr., Crazy Hot Mess (4) for Miller, and For The Win (6) for Weaver are secondary contenders with upset potential. Avalon Rose (3) might improve with added distance and experience; Crazy Hot Mess (4) could significantly affect the pace scenario; For The Win (6) seems poised for a strong late run if she gets the right setup.

Well Versed (7) for Mandella and Baze is another secondary threat, possibly overlooked in wagering but possessing the potential to make a late charge if Mandella's conditioning shines through.

Fast Amy (10) for Walsh and Berrios must be respected as part of the pace mix and a barn capable of producing graded stakes winners. She could either be a key pace element or survive the early duel and hold a share of the exotics.

Longshots

Avalon Rose (3), Crazy Hot Mess (4), For The Win (6), Well Versed (7), and Fast Amy (10) may all be longshots relative to Miss Monica (9), but their upside in a dynamic, pace-driven race is considerable. Much will depend on how hard Miss Monica (9) and Holmby (8) are pressured early and whether any of these secondary contenders can finish strongly enough to upset or at least crash the trifecta.

Selections

Win: Miss Monica (9)

Place: Panda Listen (1)

Show: Dear Diary (2)

Wagering approach: In the late Pick 4 and Pick 5, many players will center tickets around Miss Monica (9) as a strong single. More conservative bettors may use Miss Monica (9) and Holmby (8) as A's with Panda Listen (1), Dear Diary (2), and Free Closer (5) as backups. For verticals, exactas keying Miss Monica (9) over Panda Listen (1), Dear Diary (2), and Holmby (8) are logical, with deeper trifectas including Free Closer (5), Crazy Hot Mess (4), and Fast Amy (10).

RACE 11 — Post 9:33/8:33/7:33/(6:33) — 1100f | T | AO | OClm 20000n1x | BUN | Purse $81,000

Pace Analysis

Race 11 is a five-and-a-half furlong turf optional claiming sprint, a division at Del Mar that often favors speed and tactical positioning. Jetovator (10) from Eurton, King's Ride (5) from Lewis, and Ballyvaughan Gig (8) from Tamayo all carry pace-forward profiles. Jetovator (10) with Jaramillo may blast away from the gate, aiming to clear and cross, while King's Ride (5) with Hernandez and Ballyvaughan Gig (8) with Frey likely press just behind.

Jack Fish (1) from Garcia and Owl (6) from Drysdale might sit stalking inside trips. Courtside Action (7) from Mathis and Jaguar Jon (3) from the same barn, plus Infinite Spirit (4), Piper's Causeway (9), Speed Of Elon (2), and Tom Seaver (11), each bring varying degrees of speed and off-the-pace ability. Expect a hot pace with multiple horses vying for position into the turn.

Key Contenders

Jetovator (10) appears as a key contender, with Eurton's turf sprinters often performing well when allowed to dictate or sit right off a contested pace. Jaramillo's aggressive style suits Jetovator (10), and if he clears, he becomes difficult to reel in.

Ballyvaughan Gig (8) for Tamayo is a strong contender. Tamayo's turf sprinters can be very live, and Ballyvaughan Gig (8) with Frey should get a stalking, outside trip that sets up a strong late kick.

Owl (6) for Drysdale and Rosario is another major player. Drysdale's turf conditioning, combined with Rosario's ability to time a run, makes Owl (6) very dangerous from a mid-pack spot, especially if the pace is as heated as expected.

King's Ride (5) with Hernandez is a key contender as well, blending pace and finishing ability. Hernandez has been particularly effective in turf sprints at Del Mar, and King's Ride (5) may be perfectly positioned to strike at just the right time.

Secondary Choices

Jack Fish (1) from the rail, Courtside Action (7), Jaguar Jon (3), and Tom Seaver (11) for Mathis and Miyadi are secondary contenders. Jack Fish (1) might save ground and get a good trip if the inside is kind. Courtside Action (7) and Jaguar Jon (3) as barnmates add depth, and Tom Seaver (11) with Van Dyke can be very effective if he secures a clean outside run.

Infinite Spirit (4) and Piper's Causeway (9) align as mid-tier threats who would benefit from a pace meltdown, while Speed Of Elon (2) is more of a speculative type given the high morning line.

Longshots

Infinite Spirit (4), Piper's Causeway (9), Speed Of Elon (2), and even Jaguar Jon (3) and Tom Seaver (11) may be longshots capable of hitting the board at prices. Because turf sprints can produce chaotic results, it is prudent to use a spread approach underneath in trifectas and superfectas.

Selections

Win: Jetovator (10)

Place: Owl (6)

Show: Ballyvaughan Gig (8)

Wagering approach: In the closing leg of the late Pick 4/5, use Jetovator (10), Owl (6), Ballyvaughan Gig (8), and King's Ride (5) as primary coverage. For verticals, exacta combinations Jetovator (10) over Owl (6), Ballyvaughan Gig (8), and King's Ride (5), plus trifectas including Jack Fish (1), Courtside Action (7), and Tom Seaver (11), can provide strong value.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Joel Rosario's mounts, including On The Burner (2) in Race 1, Amplitude (2) in Race 2, Convo (7) in Race 3, Mickey (1) in Race 6, Shadow Nation (5) in Race 7, Magnificat (2) in Race 8, Starfinder (4) in Race 9, Crazy Hot Mess (4) in Race 10, and Owl (6) in Race 11, deserve close attention given his established class and ability to time runs on both dirt and turf.

Juan Hernandez, riding Cherry Cider (3), Path To Power (7), Knight To King (3), Character (7), Zakiel (8), Observed (3), Howin (6), Graduation Day (6), Miss Monica (9), and King's Ride (5), is one of the most reliable Del Mar pilots, often excelling with tactical pace horses and Baffert runners.

Umberto Rispoli, aboard High Society U (2), Balnikhov (5), Cornealeusthegreat (7), Itinerary (2), Mi Confesion (3), Forewarn (9), and Free Closer (5), is a specialist in turf and route races, making his mounts especially attractive in Races 2, 7, 8, 9, and 10.

Kazushi Kimura's presence on Lyle The Crocodile (2), Warrior Saint (3), Golden Sentry (4), Amorita (8), Panda Listen (1), and Jack Fish (1) signals aggressive, yet efficient riding, particularly in races where inside trip management is vital.

Other notable riders include Mike Smith on Double D Lite (2) and Dear Diary (2), Tyler Baze on Well Versed (7), Julien Leparoux on Balladeer (3), Cosmic Charlie (1), Surf Song (5), and Avalon Rose (3), and Hector Berrios on None Above The Law (6), Off In The Corner (7), High Ambition (10), and Fast Amy (10). Their mounts deserve attention in the context of their proven stakes and turf abilities.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Bob Baffert's runners, including Smashing Machine (3), Cherry Cider (3), Hoaxer (6), Howin (6), Holmby (8), and Miss Monica (9), carry strong reputations, particularly in juvenile and stakes company. Baffert's track record in the Del Mar Debutante and juvenile races at Del Mar is well documented, making his horses frequent anchors in vertical and horizontal wagers.

Richard Mandella's entries, Magnificat (2), Amorita (8), Dear Diary (2), Well Versed (7), Forewarn (9), and Vendetta (11), are typically well-prepared and capable of improvement with experience. Mandella's patient conditioning often leads to strong second- and third-start efforts, especially in stakes and turf races.

Peter Miller's runners such as None Above The Law (6), Character (7), Another Warrior (11), Off In The Corner (7), Automatic Press (8), Crazy Hot Mess (4), and King's Ride (5) should never be ignored at Del Mar, where Miller has long had success, particularly with claimers and turf sprinters.

Phil D'Amato's turf and route horses, including Balnikhov (5), Path To Power (7), Lyle The Crocodile (2), Cornealeusthegreat (7), Graduation Day (6), and possibly others, offer strong value in turf races and are key components of exotic bets.

Other notable barns include Doug O'Neill with First

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