Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Zia Park continues its 2025 fall racing season with a 10-race Monday card featuring a solid mix of maiden races, allowance conditions, and claiming events. The New Mexico track opened its 31-day meet on November 1st and racing continues through December 16th.
Track Conditions and Weather
Current weather conditions in Hobbs show clear skies with temperatures expected to reach the mid-70s by afternoon, with light winds from the southwest. The track surface should be rated Fast with ideal racing conditions throughout the day. Morning temperatures started around 46 degrees with clear conditions, providing excellent visibility for both horses and jockeys.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight Fillies (5 Furlongs)
This 2-year-old filly maiden features seven runners going five furlongs on the dirt. Authentic Charm draws attention as a first-time starter for trainer Joel Marr with Miguel Fuentes Jr. aboard. The filly shows promise in morning line odds and represents solid connections. Dash N Cash makes her debut for trainer Luis Rojero with Tracy Hebert riding, while Miss Madame brings experience from trainer Rafael Barraza.
Coffee Connection rounds out the field as another debut runner for Todd Fincher, who leads the trainer standings with strong statistics this meet. Velvet Billet represents Bradley Bolen with Christian Ramos in the irons.
Top Selection: Authentic Charm offers value at morning line odds with solid connections
Secondary Choice: Coffee Connection for hot trainer Todd Fincher
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight Fillies/Mares (5 1/2 Furlongs)
This race features older maidens at five and one-half furlongs. Native Charmer debuts for Todd Fincher with Ramon Vazquez riding, bringing the meet’s leading trainer into play. Girvinitallshesgot represents another strong barn in Bradley Bolen with Luis Valenzuela aboard.
Brazilian Queen adds class as a 5-year-old mare making her first start for trainer Lillian Silva. The experience factor could prove decisive in this competitive maiden race.
Top Selection: Native Charmer for leading trainer Todd Fincher
Secondary Choice: Girvinitallshesgot with solid jockey-trainer combination
Race 3 – Claiming Race (1 Mile)
This one-mile claiming race for $7,500 claimers features seven older horses. We Need Marketing stretches out to a mile for trainer Filiberto Quiroz, while Sexy Dexy drops down in class for Sherry Armstrong, who ranks among the top trainers at the meet.
Upward Mobility represents the same connections as We Need Marketing with a different jockey assignment. The mile distance should favor horses with tactical speed and stamina.
Top Selection: Sexy Dexy dropping in class
Secondary Choice: We Need Marketing stretching out
Race 4 – Allowance Race Fillies/Mares (5 1/2 Furlongs)
This $50,000 allowance race at 5 1/2 furlongs features eight fillies and mares with the condition for horses that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter or state bred, or which have never won two races. The race presents excellent betting opportunities with competitive runners from top connections.
Key Contenders
Tiz the Spirit emerges as the standout choice in this competitive allowance test. The 3-year-old filly scored an impressive maiden victory on October 5th at Albuquerque, breaking through after several attempts. Trained by Todd Fincher, who leads the current Zia Park trainer standings, she benefits from the meet’s hottest connections. Jockey Aldo Arboleda takes the mount for this barn that has dominated the early season.
The filly shows consistent improvement in her form cycle and the step up to allowance company appears well within her capabilities. Her recent victory came over course and distance, providing valuable experience at the 5 1/2 furlong trip. The Fincher barn has been particularly effective with developing young fillies this meet.
Lucky Vegas brings proven class as a 5-year-old California-bred mare with solid recent form. She captured a state-bred allowance race at Albuquerque on September 11th, scoring by comfortable margins under Luis Valenzuela. The mare has consistently competed at this level throughout her career and the return engagement with Valenzuela provides continuity.
Her breeding suggests she should handle the distance effectively, being by Win the Space out of a Ghostzapper mare. The combination with trainer Dick Cappellucci adds stability to this entry, as the veteran conditioner knows how to place his horses effectively.
R R Bougie represents another strong option from the Todd Fincher stable. The 3-year-old Kentucky-bred filly brings a different profile as a lightly raced runner with potential for improvement. Her connections with jockey Luis Fuentes provide solid guidance for this developing runner.
The dual Fincher entry creates interesting wagering dynamics, as both fillies enter in good form but represent different stages of their careers.
Secondary Choices
Anna B enters as a 5-year-old mare showing recent activity and tactical speed. Trainer Luis Rojero teams with jockey Tracy Hebert for this runner who has experience in similar company. Her recent form suggests competitiveness at this level.
Jillys West brings experience as a 4-year-old filly for trainer Casey Lambert with Alfredo Juarez Jr. riding. Lambert has shown solid form with his female runners this meet and the experienced jockey provides tactical advantage.
Pace Analysis
The race shape appears favorable for horses with tactical speed who can settle behind early pace. Lucky Vegas typically shows early foot while Tiz the Spirit can adapt to different scenarios based on her recent performances. The 5 1/2 furlong distance creates opportunities for both speed and closing types.
Early speed figures to come from Lucky Vegas and potentially Anna B, while Tiz the Spirit and R R Bougie possess the tactical speed to position themselves effectively. The pace should be honest without being destructive.
Track Bias Considerations
Zia Park’s main track typically favors horses with good gate speed who can secure position early in sprints. The inside posts provide advantages in races at this distance, particularly when the track is playing fair to all running styles.
Wagering Analysis
HOLD YOUR HORSES! SUBSCRIBER-ONLY CONTENT
We're sorry, but this content has chosen the exclusive "members only" lifestyle. Must be nice! But you too can access it as a Pick Pony subscriber. Memberships are as low as $3/month and include Expert Picks, AI Picks, Handicapper Reports, exclusive analysis tools, advertisement-free experience, and much more!
Race 5 – New Mexico Bred Allowance (6 Furlongs)
This $77,000 New Mexico bred allowance at six furlongs features seven registered state-breds with preference given to horses with the highest 2025 earnings. The race presents excellent betting opportunities with proven stakes performers and competitive allowance runners.
Key Contender Analysis
Let Him Be stands as the overwhelming choice in this competitive allowance test. The 5-year-old son of Sway Away has compiled an extraordinary record of 12 wins from 15 career starts with earnings exceeding $544,000. Trained by Joel Marr with Miguel Fuentes Jr. aboard, this gelding brings impeccable credentials to today’s assignment.
His recent form proves exceptional, capturing the $90,000 Jamison Memorial Stakes at Sunland Park in February 2025 where he held off a late charge to win by half a length. The victory marked his fourth consecutive win at Sunland Park, maintaining a perfect 4-for-4 record at that venue. Previous major victories include the Zia Sprint Stakes at this track and the $150,000 New Mexico Classics Derby Championship.
Let Him Be demonstrates tactical versatility, showing early speed while maintaining strong finishing ability. His breeding by Sway Away suggests stamina at six furlongs, and his proven ability at this distance makes him the horse to beat.
Diabolical Storm brings legitimate stakes credentials as the secondary choice. The 6-year-old son of Attila’s Storm represents Todd Fincher’s barn with Luis Valenzuela riding, providing strong connections. His resume includes victories in the 2022 New Mexico Breeders’ Derby at Sunland Park and the Duke City Sprint Stakes.
With career earnings exceeding $465,000 from 29 starts, Diabolical Storm recently returned from a seven-month layoff to finish second in the Casey Darnell Stakes at Albuquerque. The race served as his prep for today’s assignment, and the Fincher barn excels with horses returning from brief layoffs.
Secondary Choices
Leave Them Behind enters as a solid contender for trainer Sherry Armstrong with Enrique Gomez riding. The 5-year-old gelding won impressively in his most recent start and brings consistent form to this competitive spot. Armstrong ranks among the leading trainers at the current meet, adding credibility to this entry.
One Mark represents Todd Fincher’s second entry with Ramon Vazquez aboard. The dual Fincher entry creates interesting wagering dynamics, as both horses enter from the meet’s leading barn. One Mark previously competed in stakes company and has shown ability at this level.
Delbert Too deserves respect as a 7-year-old gelding who recently defeated Diabolical Storm in allowance company. Trained by Filiberto Quiroz with Alejandro Medellin riding, this veteran brings proven form at six furlongs.
Longshot Considerations
Flags Finale offers value as a 5-year-old gelding trained by Hermenegildo Aldavaz with Oscar Andrade Jr. riding. The chestnut finished fourth behind Let Him Be in the New Mexico Classic Sprint Stakes, showing he can compete at this level.
Probate rounds out the field as an 8-year-old veteran trained by Alberto Amparan. While facing tough competition, his experience could prove valuable in a competitive race.
Pace Analysis
The race shape favors horses with tactical speed who can press the early pace. Let Him Be typically shows good gate speed and can control the tempo, while Diabolical Storm possesses the tactical speed to position effectively. Leave Them Behind and One Mark both show early foot, creating honest pace dynamics.
The six-furlong distance allows for different tactical approaches, with Let Him Be’s proven ability to lead and sustain his kick providing a significant advantage. The pace should develop honestly without being overly destructive.
Track Bias and Distance Considerations
Zia Park’s main track typically plays fair to different running styles at six furlongs. The distance suits horses with good gate speed who can secure favorable position, particularly important in competitive allowance company.
New Mexico breds often show improvement when restricted to state-bred company, and the $77,000 purse attracts quality runners. The earnings preference condition ensures competitive depth throughout the field.
Wagering Strategy
HOLD YOUR HORSES! SUBSCRIBER-ONLY CONTENT
We're sorry, but this content has chosen the exclusive "members only" lifestyle. Must be nice! But you too can access it as a Pick Pony subscriber. Memberships are as low as $3/month and include Expert Picks, AI Picks, Handicapper Reports, exclusive analysis tools, advertisement-free experience, and much more!
Race 6 – Allowance Fillies/Mares (6 Furlongs)
This $65,000 allowance race at six furlongs features fillies and mares with preference given to horses with the highest 2025 earnings. The competitive field of seven runners presents excellent betting opportunities with proven performers at this class level.
Key Contenders
Pepper Mill emerges as a strong choice with Luis Valenzuela aboard for trainer Bart Hone. The 5-year-old mare brings tactical speed and proven ability at six furlongs, with Valenzuela’s presence providing significant jockey upgrade. Her connections have shown consistent form throughout the meet, and the pairing with the track’s leading rider creates a formidable combination.
The mare has competed effectively in allowance company and should appreciate the return to six furlongs after showing versatility at different distances. Valenzuela’s 32% win rate with Hone-trained horses this season adds credibility to this selection.
Lookinforbargains represents the meet’s leading trainer Todd Fincher with Ramon Vazquez riding. The 5-year-old mare benefits from the Fincher barn’s 17% strike rate and solid earnings record at the current meet. Her connections have dominated the early season, making her a serious threat despite facing competitive allowance company.
Vazquez has shown strong chemistry with Fincher trainees throughout the meet, and their combination provides tactical advantages in competitive spots. The mare’s recent form suggests readiness for this assignment.
Tour Queen brings proven class as a 4-year-old filly with recent success at Canterbury Park. She scored an impressive victory at Canterbury on August 18th, winning a similar allowance optional claiming race by comfortable margins under Luis Fuentes. Her subsequent second-place finish in allowance company confirms her competitiveness at this level.
Now trained by Ty Garrett with Luis Fuentes maintaining the riding assignment, Tour Queen shows tactical versatility and proven ability at six furlongs. Her breeding by Tourist suggests stamina for the distance, while her recent form indicates peak condition.
Secondary Choices
Charlee Mae enters on a winning streak with trainer Jose Gonzalez Jr. and jockey Elvin Gonzalez. The 5-year-old mare captured consecutive victories at Prairie Meadows in September, demonstrating current form and class. Her recent success includes a strong performance in allowance company where she showed improved form.
The mare finished second behind Chesterette at Zia Park in December 2024, proving her effectiveness at this venue. Her consistent connections and improving form make her a legitimate contender in this competitive spot.
Brashanknowit brings stakes experience as a Florida-bred mare trained by Greg Green. She captured an allowance race at Arapahoe Park in November 2024, scoring wire-to-wire in impressive fashion. Her subsequent efforts in New Mexico included a solid third-place finish behind Chesterette at Zia Park.
With career earnings exceeding $101,000 and a record of four wins from 13 starts, Brashanknowit shows consistent ability at the allowance level. Her breeding by Shaman Ghost suggests tactical speed that could prove effective at six furlongs.
Longshot Considerations
Dads Estrella offers value as a California-bred mare with experience at multiple tracks. Trained by Kasey Kemper with Cash Ramey riding, she brings different tactical dimensions to this competitive field. Her recent effort at Arapahoe Park showed competitiveness in allowance company.
Pink Pacific provides the lone 3-year-old presence with a two-pound weight advantage. Trained by Gary Cross with Tracy Hebert aboard, the filly could benefit from the weight concession against older competition.
Pace Analysis
The race setup favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position early. Pepper Mill and Tour Queen both show early foot while maintaining strong finishing ability. Lookinforbargains possesses the tactical speed to position effectively, while Charlee Mae has shown the ability to rate behind pace.
The six-furlong distance allows for different tactical approaches, with speed holding advantages on Zia Park’s main track. The pace should develop honestly without being overly destructive, favoring horses who can secure favorable stalking position.
Track Considerations
Zia Park’s main track typically favors horses with good gate speed at six furlongs, particularly when conditions remain fast. The inside posts provide positional advantages, while horses drawn outside must overcome tactical disadvantages.
The allowance condition attracts competitive runners, making pace dynamics crucial for success. Horses with proven ability to rate behind early pace hold advantages when the speed collapses.
Wagering Strategy
HOLD YOUR HORSES! SUBSCRIBER-ONLY CONTENT
We're sorry, but this content has chosen the exclusive "members only" lifestyle. Must be nice! But you too can access it as a Pick Pony subscriber. Memberships are as low as $3/month and include Expert Picks, AI Picks, Handicapper Reports, exclusive analysis tools, advertisement-free experience, and much more!
Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight Colts/Geldings (6 Furlongs)
This maiden race for older males features eight runners at six furlongs. Honor the Giants debuts for trainer Daniel Hernandez, while Boltless makes his first start for Justin Evans with Luis Valenzuela aboard.
Ilean Right represents Todd Fincher with Ramon Vazquez riding, bringing the leading trainer into consideration. The six-furlong distance suits different running styles.
Top Selection: Ilean Right for leading trainer
Secondary Choice: Boltless with top jockey
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight Colts (5 Furlongs)
This 2-year-old colt maiden features nine runners at five furlongs. Eye for an Eye represents Greg Green’s barn, while Forty Seven debuts for Justin Evans with Luis Valenzuela aboard.
Another Crossbow rounds out the field for Joel Marr with Ken Tohill riding. The juvenile sprint distance favors early speed and class.
Top Selection: Forty Seven with top connections
Secondary Choice: Eye for an Eye for solid trainer
Race 9 – Claiming Race (6 Furlongs)
This $7,500 claiming race features eight older horses at six furlongs. Quarrymen represents Dick Cappellucci with Alfredo Juarez Jr. riding, bringing last season’s leading jockey into play.
Right in Front offers value for trainer Raymond Valerio with solid recent form. The claiming level provides competitive balance throughout the field.
Top Selection: Quarrymen with leading jockey
Secondary Choice: Right in Front with value potential
Race 10 – Allowance Optional Claiming Fillies/Mares (6 Furlongs)
This $64,000 New Mexico bred allowance optional claiming race at six furlongs features registered state-bred fillies and mares with a $20,000 claiming price. The competitive field suffers significant scratches with both Matilda’s Mark and American Cherub removed, leaving eight runners in this final race.
Impact of Scratches
The loss of Matilda’s Mark represents a significant development, as the 3-year-old filly captured the $75,000 Petticoat Stakes at Albuquerque in dominant fashion on August 30th, winning by 12 lengths for Todd Fincher. Her stewards scratch removes the probable favorite and opens opportunities for the remaining field.
American Cherub’s veterinarian scratch further reduces the competitive depth, creating a more wide-open betting race among the remaining eight runners.
Key Contenders
Moonlight Warrior emerges as a leading choice following the scratches. The 5-year-old mare brings proven allowance form for trainer Joel Marr with Luis Fuentes riding. Her recent third-place finish in an allowance optional claiming race at Sunland Park in February demonstrates competitiveness at this class level.
Marr’s career statistics show 794 wins from 6,378 starts with over $12 million in earnings, providing veteran guidance for this competitive spot. The trainer-jockey combination has shown effectiveness throughout 2025, making this a formidable pairing.
Marquis Lights represents solid connections with trainer Arturo Chavez and jockey Christian Ramos. The 7-year-old mare by Marking brings experience at this level, including a victory at Sunland Park in February 2024. Her recent form includes competitive efforts against similar competition, and the Chavez barn knows how to place horses effectively.
Despite being 7 years old, Marquis Lights shows consistent ability when properly placed and the six-furlong distance suits her tactical speed. Her breeding suggests stamina for the distance while maintaining competitive fire.
Secondary Choices
Our Time to Shine brings veteran presence as a 7-year-old mare trained by Timothy Gleason with Francisco Amparan riding. She competed in an allowance optional claiming race at Albuquerque on October 22nd, showing recent activity at this class level. Her experience could prove valuable in this competitive spot.
Right for You represents trainer Gary Cross with Oscar Andrade Jr. aboard. Cross has shown solid form with his female runners, and Andrade Jr. provides capable jockey guidance. The mare brings different tactical dimensions to this competitive field.
Hey Friend enters for trainer Sherry Armstrong with Alejandro Medellin riding. The 6-year-old mare finished seventh in an allowance optional claiming race at Zia Park in December 2024, demonstrating familiarity with the track and conditions. Armstrong ranks among the leading trainers at the current meet, adding credibility to this selection.
Longshot Considerations
Mark It Down provides the lone 4-year-old presence for trainer Dallas Barton with Miguel Fuentes Jr. riding. As one of the younger horses in the field, she could offer improvement potential against older competition.
Queen Hadassah represents trainer Joy Marlin with Tracy Hebert aboard, bringing different connections to this competitive race. The mare could provide value if the pace scenario develops favorably.
Forty Five rounds out the field as a 3-year-old filly with a weight advantage, trained by Dick Cappellucci with Ramon Vazquez riding. The two-pound weight concession could prove significant in a competitive finish.
Pace Analysis
The race setup favors horses with tactical speed who can secure favorable position early. Moonlight Warrior typically shows early foot while maintaining strong finishing ability, while Marquis Lights possesses the tactical speed to position effectively behind pace.
The scratches remove potential pace pressure, creating opportunities for horses who can secure stalking position and finish strongly. The six-furlong distance allows for different tactical approaches on Zia Park’s main track.
Track Considerations
Zia Park’s main track typically favors horses with good gate speed at six furlongs, particularly when conditions remain fast. The allowance optional claiming condition creates competitive balance while the New Mexico bred restriction limits the field to familiar runners.
The $20,000 claiming price provides protection for owners while maintaining competitive quality throughout the field.
Wagering Strategy
HOLD YOUR HORSES! SUBSCRIBER-ONLY CONTENT
We're sorry, but this content has chosen the exclusive "members only" lifestyle. Must be nice! But you too can access it as a Pick Pony subscriber. Memberships are as low as $3/month and include Expert Picks, AI Picks, Handicapper Reports, exclusive analysis tools, advertisement-free experience, and much more!
Jockey Insights
Luis Valenzuela emerges as the premier rider at the meet with multiple mounts throughout the card. His combination with various top trainers provides excellent opportunities. Miguel Fuentes Jr. shows strong early season form with quality mounts for established connections.
Ramon Vazquez brings veteran experience while Alfredo Juarez Jr. returns as last season’s leading rider. Christian Ramos offers value on certain spots with improving form.
Trainer Analysis
Todd Fincher leads the standings with 17 wins from 102 starts and over $1 million in earnings. His horses deserve serious consideration throughout the card. Sherry Armstrong ranks second with 15 wins and solid statistics.
Joel Marr provides consistent runners while Casey Lambert shows improvement with recent form. The trainer standings reflect the quality of barns competing at Zia Park’s meet.
Wagering Strategy
Focus on Todd Fincher trainees throughout the card, especially when paired with Luis Valenzuela. The exacta combinations involving leading riders offer solid value opportunities.
Daily double plays connecting Race 1 through Race 10 provide multiple scoring chances with the competitive nature of each race. Pick 3 combinations using multiple Fincher horses create advantageous sequences.
The claiming races offer the best value opportunities with competitive fields and class drops creating overlay situations.
