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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Grants Pass, September 21, 2026

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How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 8:18 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1630050%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)640067%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)622033%
Experimental Weight Set 2650083%
Experimental Weight Set 3650083%


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:5 – Peter Flies (2/1)
Place:3 – Double Perfection (5/2)
Show:1 – Y Vee R (3/1)
Other contenders:2 – Polacco (3/1), 4 – Workday (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-5-4-2
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-2-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:1 – Mischiefs Causeway (8/5)
Place:6 – Convey To Me (5/2)
Show:2 – Murloc Bay (9/2)
Other contenders:4 – Western Sierra (4/1), 5 – Ford Flyer (6/1)
Rest of field:3 – Quick Buck (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-2-4-5-3
🎯 Longshots: 1-6-2-3-4-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:6 – Bacalar (5/2)
Place:3 – Here's The Thing (9/2)
Show:7 – Standforgrit (3/1)
Other contenders:5 – Tenacious Candy (4/1), 2 – Roses R Blue (6/1)
Rest of field:1 – Hey Wilmaaa (8/1), 4 – Blursday (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-7-5-3-1
🎯 Longshots: 6-7-3-1-4-2-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:3 – Social Status (3/1)
Place:4 – Zippin Sevenz (7/2)
Show:6 – Coiffeur (9/2)
Other contenders:5 – Monarca De Oro (4/1), 1 – Chatty Leroybrown (8/1)
Rest of field:7 – Bells And Whistles (6/1), 2 – Dandy Day (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-2-1-7-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-6-1-4-5-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:8 – Ima Margarita Girl (5/2)
Place:1 – Exington (4/1)
Show:6 – A Fleet Ride (6/1)
Other contenders:3 – Cut N Curl (9/2), 7 – Bumping River (6/1), 4 – River Dance (5/1)
Rest of field:5 – Galesville (12/1), 2 – Escapefromparadise (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-3-6-7-4-2
🎯 Longshots: 8-6-7-5-1-3-4-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:5 – Raven Rendezvous (3/1)
Place:3 – Rise Up And Go (7/2)
Show:7 – Tiger Passion (4/1)
Other contenders:4 – Point Maker (6/1), 1 – R D Stimulus (9/2), 6 – Circle Of Fire (8/1)
Rest of field:2 – Miz Imogee (10/1), 8 – Midnight Zee (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-7-5-1-6
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-6-2-7-8-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:3 – Double Perfection (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:5 – Peter Flies (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -30%
Show:2 – Polacco (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -42%
Other contenders:1 – Y Vee R (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -45%, 4 – Workday (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Double Perfection — 29.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Double Perfection29.8% ◀Peter Flies — 26.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Peter Flies26.0%Polacco — 16.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Polacco16.2%Y Vee R — 15.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Y Vee R15.5%Workday — 12.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Workday12.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Double Perfection29.8%2.5/1
Peter Flies26.0%2/1
Polacco16.2%3/1
Y Vee R15.5%3/1
Workday12.5%6/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDouble Perfection: model 29.8% vs market 22.6% (+7.1 points)Double Perfection+7.1Peter Flies: model 26.0% vs market 26.4% (-0.4 points)Peter Flies-0.4Polacco: model 16.2% vs market 19.8% (-3.6 points)Polacco-3.6Y Vee R: model 15.5% vs market 19.8% (-4.3 points)Y Vee R-4.3Workday: model 12.5% vs market 11.3% (+1.2 points)Workday+1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Double Perfection29.8%22.6%+7.1
Peter Flies26.0%26.4%-0.4
Polacco16.2%19.8%-3.6
Y Vee R15.5%19.8%-4.3
Workday12.5%11.3%+1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-4-5-2
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-2-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:1 – Mischiefs Causeway (8/5) 31% · fair 2-1 underlay -27%
Place:6 – Convey To Me (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -29%
Show:4 – Western Sierra (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -32%
Other contenders:5 – Ford Flyer (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 2 – Murloc Bay (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -42%
Rest of field:3 – Quick Buck (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -32%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mischiefs Causeway — 31.3% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Mischiefs Causeway31.3% ◀Convey To Me — 22.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Convey To Me22.1%Western Sierra — 14.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Western Sierra14.5%Ford Flyer — 14.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Ford Flyer14.5%Murloc Bay — 11.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Murloc Bay11.3%Quick Buck — 6.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Quick Buck6.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mischiefs Causeway31.3%1.6/1
Convey To Me22.1%2.5/1
Western Sierra14.5%4/1
Ford Flyer14.5%6/1
Murloc Bay11.3%4.5/1
Quick Buck6.3%10/1
🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-2-6-5-3
🎯 Longshots: 1-6-2-3-4-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:3 – Here's The Thing (9/2) 23% · fair 7-2 overlay +34%
Place:6 – Bacalar (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -51%
Show:7 – Standforgrit (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -47%
Other contenders:5 – Tenacious Candy (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -32%, 2 – Roses R Blue (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%
Rest of field:1 – Hey Wilmaaa (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 4 – Blursday (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Here'S The Thing — 22.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Here'S The Thing22.9% ◀Bacalar — 16.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Bacalar16.5%Standforgrit — 14.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Standforgrit14.9%Tenacious Candy — 14.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Tenacious Candy14.5%Roses R Blue — 10.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Roses R Blue10.6%Hey Wilmaaa — 10.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Hey Wilmaaa10.4%Blursday — 10.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Blursday10.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Here'S The Thing22.9%4.5/1
Bacalar16.5%2.5/1
Standforgrit14.9%3/1
Tenacious Candy14.5%4/1
Roses R Blue10.6%6/1
Hey Wilmaaa10.4%8/1
Blursday10.0%8/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHere'S The Thing: model 22.9% vs market 14.2% (+8.7 points)Here'S The Thing+8.7Bacalar: model 16.5% vs market 22.3% (-5.8 points)Bacalar-5.8Standforgrit: model 14.9% vs market 19.5% (-4.6 points)Standforgrit-4.6Tenacious Candy: model 14.5% vs market 15.6% (-1.0 points)Tenacious Candy-1.0Roses R Blue: model 10.6% vs market 11.1% (-0.5 points)Roses R Blue-0.5Hey Wilmaaa: model 10.4% vs market 8.7% (+1.8 points)Hey Wilmaaa+1.8Blursday: model 10.0% vs market 8.7% (+1.3 points)Blursday+1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Here'S The Thing22.9%14.2%+8.7
Bacalar16.5%22.3%-5.8
Standforgrit14.9%19.5%-4.6
Tenacious Candy14.5%15.6%-1.0
Roses R Blue10.6%11.1%-0.5
Hey Wilmaaa10.4%8.7%+1.8
Blursday10.0%8.7%+1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-7-5-1-4
🎯 Longshots: 6-7-3-1-4-2-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:5 – Monarca De Oro (4/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Place:7 – Bells And Whistles (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:6 – Coiffeur (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:3 – Social Status (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -42%, 4 – Zippin Sevenz (7/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -52%
Rest of field:1 – Chatty Leroybrown (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 2 – Dandy Day (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -29%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Monarca De Oro — 19.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Monarca De Oro19.1% ◀Bells And Whistles — 17.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Bells And Whistles17.2%Coiffeur — 16.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Coiffeur16.3%Social Status — 16.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Social Status16.3%Zippin Sevenz — 12.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Zippin Sevenz12.1%Chatty Leroybrown — 10.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Chatty Leroybrown10.9%Dandy Day — 8.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Dandy Day8.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Monarca De Oro19.1%4/1
Bells And Whistles17.2%6/1
Coiffeur16.3%4.5/1
Social Status16.3%3/1
Zippin Sevenz12.1%3.5/1
Chatty Leroybrown10.9%8/1
Dandy Day8.1%8/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMonarca De Oro: model 19.1% vs market 16.4% (+2.7 points)Monarca De Oro+2.7Bells And Whistles: model 17.2% vs market 11.7% (+5.5 points)Bells And Whistles+5.5Coiffeur: model 16.3% vs market 14.9% (+1.4 points)Coiffeur+1.4Social Status: model 16.3% vs market 20.5% (-4.2 points)Social Status-4.2Zippin Sevenz: model 12.1% vs market 18.2% (-6.1 points)Zippin Sevenz-6.1Chatty Leroybrown: model 10.9% vs market 9.1% (+1.7 points)Chatty Leroybrown+1.7Dandy Day: model 8.1% vs market 9.1% (-1.0 points)Dandy Day-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Monarca De Oro19.1%16.4%+2.7
Bells And Whistles17.2%11.7%+5.5
Coiffeur16.3%14.9%+1.4
Social Status16.3%20.5%-4.2
Zippin Sevenz12.1%18.2%-6.1
Chatty Leroybrown10.9%9.1%+1.7
Dandy Day8.1%9.1%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-7-3-1-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-6-1-4-5-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:6 – A Fleet Ride (6/1) 17% · fair 9-2 overlay +26%
Place:3 – Cut N Curl (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:8 – Ima Margarita Girl (5/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -54%
Other contenders:1 – Exington (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -27%, 7 – Bumping River (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 4 – River Dance (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -33%
Rest of field:5 – Galesville (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 2 – Escapefromparadise (15/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -27%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

A Fleet Ride — 17.4% win probability, morning line 6/1A Fleet Ride17.4% ◀Cut N Curl — 16.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Cut N Curl16.8%Ima Margarita Girl — 15.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Ima Margarita Girl15.4%Exington — 15.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Exington15.4%Bumping River — 11.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Bumping River11.9%River Dance — 11.8% win probability, morning line 5/1River Dance11.8%Galesville — 6.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Galesville6.6%Escapefromparadise — 4.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Escapefromparadise4.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
A Fleet Ride17.4%6/1
Cut N Curl16.8%4.5/1
Ima Margarita Girl15.4%2.5/1
Exington15.4%4/1
Bumping River11.9%6/1
River Dance11.8%5/1
Galesville6.6%12/1
Escapefromparadise4.7%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherA Fleet Ride: model 17.4% vs market 11.3% (+6.1 points)A Fleet Ride+6.1Cut N Curl: model 16.8% vs market 14.4% (+2.3 points)Cut N Curl+2.3Ima Margarita Girl: model 15.4% vs market 22.7% (-7.2 points)Ima Margarita Girl-7.2Exington: model 15.4% vs market 15.9% (-0.5 points)Exington-0.5Bumping River: model 11.9% vs market 11.3% (+0.6 points)Bumping River+0.6River Dance: model 11.8% vs market 13.2% (-1.5 points)River Dance-1.5Galesville: model 6.6% vs market 6.1% (+0.5 points)Galesville+0.5Escapefromparadise: model 4.7% vs market 5.0% (-0.3 points)Escapefromparadise-0.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
A Fleet Ride17.4%11.3%+6.1
Cut N Curl16.8%14.4%+2.3
Ima Margarita Girl15.4%22.7%-7.2
Exington15.4%15.9%-0.5
Bumping River11.9%11.3%+0.6
River Dance11.8%13.2%-1.5
Galesville6.6%6.1%+0.5
Escapefromparadise4.7%5.0%-0.3
🌧️ Off-track: 7-3-8-6-2-4
🎯 Longshots: 8-6-7-5-1-3-4-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:3 – Rise Up And Go (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Place:7 – Tiger Passion (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:5 – Raven Rendezvous (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -44%
Other contenders:4 – Point Maker (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 6 – Circle Of Fire (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1 – R D Stimulus (9/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -57%
Rest of field:2 – Miz Imogee (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 8 – Midnight Zee (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Rise Up And Go — 20.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Rise Up And Go20.3% ◀Tiger Passion — 17.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Tiger Passion17.3%Raven Rendezvous — 15.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Raven Rendezvous15.7%Point Maker — 14.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Point Maker14.3%Circle Of Fire — 11.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Circle Of Fire11.6%R D Stimulus — 8.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1R D Stimulus8.7%Miz Imogee — 7.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Miz Imogee7.2%Midnight Zee — 4.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Midnight Zee4.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Rise Up And Go20.3%3.5/1
Tiger Passion17.3%4/1
Raven Rendezvous15.7%3/1
Point Maker14.3%6/1
Circle Of Fire11.6%8/1
R D Stimulus8.7%4.5/1
Miz Imogee7.2%10/1
Midnight Zee4.9%15/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRise Up And Go: model 20.3% vs market 17.6% (+2.7 points)Rise Up And Go+2.7Tiger Passion: model 17.3% vs market 15.9% (+1.4 points)Tiger Passion+1.4Raven Rendezvous: model 15.7% vs market 19.8% (-4.1 points)Raven Rendezvous-4.1Point Maker: model 14.3% vs market 11.3% (+3.0 points)Point Maker+3.0Circle Of Fire: model 11.6% vs market 8.8% (+2.8 points)Circle Of Fire+2.8R D Stimulus: model 8.7% vs market 14.4% (-5.8 points)R D Stimulus-5.8Miz Imogee: model 7.2% vs market 7.2% (-0.1 points)Miz Imogee-0.1Midnight Zee: model 4.9% vs market 5.0% (-0.0 points)Midnight Zee-0.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Rise Up And Go20.3%17.6%+2.7
Tiger Passion17.3%15.9%+1.4
Raven Rendezvous15.7%19.8%-4.1
Point Maker14.3%11.3%+3.0
Circle Of Fire11.6%8.8%+2.8
R D Stimulus8.7%14.4%-5.8
Miz Imogee7.2%7.2%-0.1
Midnight Zee4.9%5.0%-0.0
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-7-6-1-2
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-6-2-7-8-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:5 – Peter Flies (2/1)
Place:3 – Double Perfection (5/2)
Show:1 – Y Vee R (3/1)
Other contenders:2 – Polacco (3/1), 4 – Workday (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-1-2-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-2-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:1 – Mischiefs Causeway (8/5)
Place:6 – Convey To Me (5/2)
Show:4 – Western Sierra (4/1)
Other contenders:5 – Ford Flyer (6/1), 2 – Murloc Bay (9/2)
Rest of field:3 – Quick Buck (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-4-2-5-3
🎯 Longshots: 1-6-2-3-4-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:6 – Bacalar (5/2)
Place:3 – Here's The Thing (9/2)
Show:7 – Standforgrit (3/1)
Other contenders:5 – Tenacious Candy (4/1), 2 – Roses R Blue (6/1)
Rest of field:4 – Blursday (8/1), 1 – Hey Wilmaaa (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-7-2-5-4
🎯 Longshots: 6-7-3-1-4-2-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:3 – Social Status (3/1)
Place:5 – Monarca De Oro (4/1)
Show:4 – Zippin Sevenz (7/2)
Other contenders:7 – Bells And Whistles (6/1), 6 – Coiffeur (9/2)
Rest of field:1 – Chatty Leroybrown (8/1), 2 – Dandy Day (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-7-6-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-6-1-4-5-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:6 – A Fleet Ride (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:8 – Ima Margarita Girl (5/2)
Show:1 – Exington (4/1)
Other contenders:7 – Bumping River (6/1), 3 – Cut N Curl (9/2), 4 – River Dance (5/1)
Rest of field:5 – Galesville (12/1), 2 – Escapefromparadise (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-8-7-3-1-4
🎯 Longshots: 8-6-7-5-1-3-4-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:5 – Raven Rendezvous (3/1)
Place:3 – Rise Up And Go (7/2)
Show:7 – Tiger Passion (4/1)
Other contenders:4 – Point Maker (6/1), 1 – R D Stimulus (9/2), 6 – Circle Of Fire (8/1)
Rest of field:2 – Miz Imogee (10/1), 8 – Midnight Zee (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-4-7-1-6
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-6-2-7-8-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #3, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #8 over #6 ($1 straight; box #8-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #6, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #5 over #3 ($1 straight; box #5-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #3, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:5 – Peter Flies (2/1)
Place:3 – Double Perfection (5/2)
Show:2 – Polacco (3/1)
Other contenders:4 – Workday (6/1), 1 – Y Vee R (3/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-4-1
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-2-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:1 – Mischiefs Causeway (8/5)
Place:6 – Convey To Me (5/2)
Show:4 – Western Sierra (4/1)
Other contenders:5 – Ford Flyer (6/1), 2 – Murloc Bay (9/2)
Rest of field:3 – Quick Buck (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-4-2-5-3
🎯 Longshots: 1-6-2-3-4-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:6 – Bacalar (5/2)
Place:3 – Here's The Thing (9/2)
Show:2 – Roses R Blue (6/1)
Other contenders:7 – Standforgrit (3/1), 5 – Tenacious Candy (4/1)
Rest of field:1 – Hey Wilmaaa (8/1), 4 – Blursday (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-2-7-5-1
🎯 Longshots: 6-7-3-1-4-2-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:4 – Zippin Sevenz (7/2)
Place:3 – Social Status (3/1)
Show:1 – Chatty Leroybrown (8/1)
Other contenders:5 – Monarca De Oro (4/1), 6 – Coiffeur (9/2)
Rest of field:7 – Bells And Whistles (6/1), 2 – Dandy Day (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-1-6-7-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-6-1-4-5-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:8 – Ima Margarita Girl (5/2)
Place:6 – A Fleet Ride (6/1)
Show:3 – Cut N Curl (9/2)
Other contenders:4 – River Dance (5/1), 1 – Exington (4/1), 7 – Bumping River (6/1)
Rest of field:5 – Galesville (12/1), 2 – Escapefromparadise (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-6-3-4-7-1
🎯 Longshots: 8-6-7-5-1-3-4-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:5 – Raven Rendezvous (3/1)
Place:3 – Rise Up And Go (7/2)
Show:7 – Tiger Passion (4/1)
Other contenders:1 – R D Stimulus (9/2), 4 – Point Maker (6/1), 2 – Miz Imogee (10/1)
Rest of field:6 – Circle Of Fire (8/1), 8 – Midnight Zee (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-7-1-4-2
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-6-2-7-8-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:5 – Peter Flies (2/1)
Place:3 – Double Perfection (5/2)
Show:1 – Y Vee R (3/1)
Other contenders:2 – Polacco (3/1), 4 – Workday (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-1-2-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-2-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,200
Win:1 – Mischiefs Causeway (8/5)
Place:6 – Convey To Me (5/2)
Show:2 – Murloc Bay (9/2)
Other contenders:4 – Western Sierra (4/1), 5 – Ford Flyer (6/1)
Rest of field:3 – Quick Buck (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-2-4-5-3
🎯 Longshots: 1-6-2-3-4-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:6 – Bacalar (5/2)
Place:3 – Here's The Thing (9/2)
Show:2 – Roses R Blue (6/1)
Other contenders:7 – Standforgrit (3/1), 5 – Tenacious Candy (4/1)
Rest of field:1 – Hey Wilmaaa (8/1), 4 – Blursday (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-3-7-5-1
🎯 Longshots: 6-7-3-1-4-2-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:4 – Zippin Sevenz (7/2)
Place:3 – Social Status (3/1)
Show:6 – Coiffeur (9/2)
Other contenders:5 – Monarca De Oro (4/1), 7 – Bells And Whistles (6/1)
Rest of field:1 – Chatty Leroybrown (8/1), 2 – Dandy Day (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-6-7-1-2
🎯 Longshots: 3-6-1-4-5-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:8 – Ima Margarita Girl (5/2)
Place:6 – A Fleet Ride (6/1)
Show:4 – River Dance (5/1)
Other contenders:1 – Exington (4/1), 3 – Cut N Curl (9/2), 7 – Bumping River (6/1)
Rest of field:5 – Galesville (12/1), 2 – Escapefromparadise (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-6-4-3-7-1
🎯 Longshots: 8-6-7-5-1-3-4-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $6,500
Win:5 – Raven Rendezvous (3/1)
Place:3 – Rise Up And Go (7/2)
Show:1 – R D Stimulus (9/2)
Other contenders:7 – Tiger Passion (4/1), 4 – Point Maker (6/1), 6 – Circle Of Fire (8/1)
Rest of field:2 – Miz Imogee (10/1), 8 – Midnight Zee (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-1-7-4-6
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-1-6-2-7-8-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R5-7R5: #3,#6,#7 (54%) / R6: #5,#7,#6 (53%) / R7: #6,#3,#8 (50%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #5,#7,#6 (53%) / R7: #6,#3,#8 (50%) / R8: #3,#7,#5 (53%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #3,#6,#7 (54%) / R6: #5,#7,#6 (53%) / R7: #6,#3,#8 (50%) / R8: #3,#7,#5 (53%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 8%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
A FLEET RIDEBACALARBELLS AND WHISTLESBLURSDAYBUMPING RIVER
CHATTY LEROYBROWNCIRCLE OF FIRECOIFFEURCONVEY TO MECPR A AMERICAN EAGLE
DA BROS CARTELDANDY DAYDC LADYS DASHN EAGLEDOUBLE PERFECTIONDYNASTIES FAVORITE
EXINGTONFAST MOVIN FREIGHTFIRST HUMMINGBIRDFIVE BARS BLAZINFORD FLYER
HERE'S THE THINGHEY WILMAAAHEZZA CORONAIMA MARGARITA GIRLJALAPENO
MIDNIGHT ZEEMISCHIEFS CAUSEWAYMIZ IMOGEEMONARCA DE OROMOON SHADOW 12
MR ROYAL CARTELMURLOC BAYNOWHERE TOO RUNPETER FLIESPOINT MAKER
QUICK BUCKR D STIMULUSRAVEN RENDEZVOUSRISE UP AND GORIVER DANCE
SHEZ SNOW WHITESOCIAL STATUSSTANDFORGRITTENACIOUS CANDYTIGER PASSION
TS JESS ATTACKWESTERN SIERRAWORKDAYY VEE RZIPPIN SEVENZ

 


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