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Churchill Downs hosts a competitive nine-race card today featuring a solid mix of claiming races, allowance conditions, and a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. The track is listing fast conditions for the main surface with racing beginning at 1:00 PM EST.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Today’s weather forecast shows sunny conditions with temperatures reaching the high 50s to low 60s, with light easterly winds at 2-6 mph. The main dirt track is listed as fast, providing ideal racing conditions. The turf course should be in excellent condition for the two turf races on the card, with the rail positioned at 36 feet.​

Race 1 – $63,000 Claiming Race (1 1/16 Miles)

This opener features five three-year-olds in a $30,000 claiming race at the demanding two-turn distance. Right On Right On enters as the likely favorite for trainer Thomas Amoss with Jose Ortiz aboard. The Amoss barn has shown consistent form this meet, and Ortiz provides veteran guidance for the stretch-out to two turns.​

Conquering Cat presents the strongest pace threat under Luis Saez for Christopher Davis. His early speed figures suggest he can control the tempo if allowed to establish position. Mintastic represents the powerful Steven Asmussen stable with Keith Asmussen riding, bringing familiarity with the barn’s aggressive tactics.

Barricade debuts for the Sharp barn with Tyler Gaffalione, while Batter Up completes the field for Niccolo Troiani. The pace appears moderate with only Conquering Cat showing significant early speed.

Selections: Right On Right On to win, Conquering Cat second, Mintastic third

Race 2 – $60,000 Claiming Fillies and Mares (1 Mile)

Six older fillies and mares contest this $20,000 claiming event. Minnesota Munny enters off a promising effort for Kelsey Danner with Luis Saez taking over the reins. The three-year-old filly drops in class and gets the benefit of the weight allowance.

Princess Kalamoh brings tactical speed for Randy Matthews with Luan Machado aboard, while Miranda’s Rocky provides stretch-running punch for Robert Cline with Gabriel Saez. The experienced mare Crushed Ice represents Anthony Quartarolo with Julien Leparoux, bringing proven form at the level.

The pace sets up moderately with Princess Kalamoh likely to establish early position. The stretch-runners should benefit from the projected setup.

Selections: Minnesota Munny to win, Miranda’s Rocky second, Princess Kalamoh third

Race 3 – $72,000 Maiden Claiming Fillies (6 Furlongs)

Seven maiden fillies compete in this $100,000 claiming sprint. Hampton’s Affair brings the strongest credentials for Mark Casse with Tyler Gaffalione, showing promise in previous efforts. The Casse barn excels with maiden fillies at Churchill Downs.

Merry Madison represents Philip Bauer with Irad Ortiz Jr., combining proven trainer success with elite jockey skills. Mimi’s Grace enters for Matt Shirer with Luis Saez providing tactical advantages from her inside draw.

The pace appears contested with multiple fillies showing early speed tendencies. The six-furlong distance should favor horses with natural gate speed.

Selections: Hampton’s Affair to win, Merry Madison second, Mimi’s Grace third

Race 4 – $45,000 Lower-Level Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs)

This competitive $12,500 claiming sprint features twelve older horses. Shipman represents Joe Sharp with Tyler Gaffalione, bringing proven form at the claiming level. The Sharp barn shows consistent success in these competitive claiming events.

Xander enters for Christopher Davis with Luis Saez, offering tactical speed and proven durability. High Strike provides stretch-running ability for Aaron West with Axel Concepcion guiding the seven-year-old.

The large field creates pace pressure with multiple early speed types. Late-runners should benefit from the projected honest tempo.

Selections: Shipman to win, Xander second, High Strike third

Race 5 – $120,000 Maiden Special Weight Two-Year-Old Fillies (1 1/16 Miles)

This $120,000 maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles presents a competitive field of eight fillies, with preference given to horses that have not started for less than $50,000. The two-turn mile and a sixteenth distance will test both class and stamina for these developing fillies.​

Top Contenders

Tam Tam enters as the likely morning line favorite for Philip Bauer with Jose Ortiz aboard. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro showed promise in her debut at Saratoga, finishing third as the 8-5 favorite going 6 1/2 furlongs on Travers Day. Trainer Bauer noted that “she did everything right, except win” and praised her ability level despite the debut loss. She worked five furlongs in 1:02.40 at Churchill Downs on September 11, suggesting she has taken the race well. Her pedigree suggests the distance stretch should suit her well, being out of Princess Julia by Distorted Humor, a daughter of champion two-year-old filly.​

Elegant Miss represents the powerful Brad Cox stable with Florent Geroux riding. Cox has established himself as one of the premier trainers of fillies, having recently trained champions like Good Cheer and Immersive. The Cox barn shows exceptional statistics with maiden special weights, and his two-year-old fillies consistently show improvement from their debuts. Geroux provides tactical expertise and proven success with the Cox barn.​

Honfleur brings proven form for Chad Brown with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. The daughter of an accomplished sire showed ability in a previous start, finishing third at Churchill Downs on September 25. Brown’s statistics with maiden fillies at Churchill Downs support strong consideration, and Gaffalione provides tactical advantages with his track knowledge. The combination represents elite East Coast connections with proven success at the venue.​

Measure enters for Mark Casse with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding. Casse has enjoyed tremendous success with two-year-olds throughout 2025, with multiple winners at the current meet. His fillies consistently show improvement patterns, and the addition of Ortiz Jr. provides championship-level riding. The Casse barn excels at developing young fillies for distance racing.​

Secondary Contenders

Maximum Offer and Holly’s Holiday both represent Kenneth McPeek, creating an interesting barn angle. McPeek splits his stable between Emmanuel Esquivel on Maximum Offer and Luis Saez on Holly’s Holiday. Holly’s Holiday is a daughter of Maxfield out of Blast by Harlan’s Holiday, suggesting stamina for the distance. McPeek’s dual entry strategy indicates confidence in both fillies’ chances.​

Inkling represents Eoin Harty with Vincent Cheminaud, bringing a different tactical approach to the race. Rockin Robin provides additional Casse representation with Axel Concepcion aboard, suggesting the trainer has multiple chances in this competitive field.

Pace Analysis

The pace appears moderate for the two-turn distance, with no overwhelming early speed types in the field. Tam Tam showed early tactical speed in her debut, while Honfleur demonstrated the ability to rate behind pace. The stretch to 1 1/16 miles should favor fillies with stamina and tactical ability rather than pure speed.​

Key Angles

The trainer statistics strongly favor Elegant Miss with Cox’s proven success at the venue and with juvenile fillies. Tam Tam brings the most race experience and showed ability despite her debut loss. The Brown-Gaffalione combination with Honfleur represents proven success patterns at Churchill Downs.​

The distance stretch from shorter races should benefit fillies with stamina-oriented pedigrees, particularly Tam Tam and Holly’s Holiday. First-time starters from proven barns like Cox and Casse command respect in maiden special weights.​

Wagering Analysis

Elegant Miss offers the strongest combination of trainer success and jockey expertise, making her the logical win bet despite likely being favored. Tam Tam provides exacta value with her proven ability and experience advantage. Honfleur and Measure round out the superfecta as proven connections with tactical advantages.

The pace setup favors horses with tactical speed and stamina, suggesting the top choices should dominate the finish. Consider keying Elegant Miss over Tam Tam, Honfleur, and Measure in exacta and trifecta combinations.

Selections: Elegant Miss to win, Tam Tam second, Honfleur third, Measure fourth

Best Bet: Elegant Miss represents the strongest combination of trainer success, jockey expertise, and barn confidence in this competitive maiden special weightcial weight.

Race 6 – $127,000 Allowance Turf Sprint (5 Furlongs)

This $127,000 allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares presents an intriguing field of eleven competitors at five furlongs with the rail positioned at 36 feet. The conditions favor fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming or starter, or which have never won two races, creating a competitive field of developing horses.​

Top Contenders

Laurice enters as a leading contender for George Weaver with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. The combination showed “promise last time out at this level” and represents elite East Coast connections with proven success on Churchill Downs turf. Weaver maintains strong statistics with turf runners, and Ortiz Jr. provides championship-level tactical expertise. The filly’s recent form suggests she is ready to break through at the allowance level.​

She’z the Law brings proven turf form for Gregory Foley with Tyler Gaffalione riding. The four-year-old filly demonstrates “consistent turf form” and scored an impressive victory at Ellis Park, paying $18.74 while showing “great strides in the final furlong to get up in time to win the turf dash”. Her tactical speed and proven ability to close strongly make her dangerous in this competitive field.​

Lost and Found represents William Walden with Axel Concepcion aboard and enters with “strong recent form” that positions her well for success. The combination offers value with proven ability at the allowance level and tactical advantages from her post position.​

Secondary Contenders

Bunratty Manor (IRE) brings international breeding for George Arnold II with Cristian Torres riding. The Irish-bred filly has experience at Churchill Downs, having previously competed at the venue behind quality fillies like Shisospicy. Her European pedigree suggests stamina for the turf course conditions.​

Mila Candy represents Mertkan Kantarmaci with Luis Saez aboard. The daughter of Twirling Candy has been competing in allowance company and brings tactical speed with proven jockey guidance. Her breeding suggests natural affinity for turf surfaces.​

Saphira and Malibu Muse both represent Riley Mott with different jockeys. Riley Mott, son of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, has established himself as a capable conditioner with 98 career victories. Saphira carries Jaime Torres while Malibu Muse draws into the race as an also-eligible. The dual representation suggests barn confidence in the race conditions.​

Flirting With Time enters for Joe Sharp with Jose Ortiz guiding the tactical approach. The Sharp barn shows consistent success with turf runners, and Ortiz provides veteran leadership in competitive allowance events.​

Pace Analysis

The five-furlong turf distance typically produces honest early fractions with limited tactical maneuvering. She’z the Law brings proven early speed with closing ability, while Laurice offers tactical versatility from her favorable draw. The rail position at 36 feet provides multiple paths for closers, favoring horses with tactical flexibility.​

The pace scenario appears moderate with several fillies showing early speed tendencies. The short distance should favor horses with natural gate speed and the ability to sustain their efforts throughout the final furlong.​

Key Angles

The trainer statistics strongly favor Laurice with Weaver’s proven success on Churchill Downs turf and Ortiz Jr.’s tactical expertise. She’z the Law brings the strongest recent form with her Ellis Park victory demonstrating improved fitness and tactical speed.​

The allowance conditions create opportunities for developing fillies to break through, particularly those with proven turf form and tactical advantages. The Mott barn representation with both Saphira and Malibu Muse suggests confidence in the race setup.​

Wagering Analysis

Race 7 – $57,000 Claiming Fillies and Mares (7 Furlongs)

Fifteen fillies and mares create a challenging handicapping puzzle in this $20,000 claiming event. Volatile Market enters for Steven Asmussen with Tyler Gaffalione, bringing proven class and tactical advantages. The Asmussen barn maintains strong form throughout the current meet.

Vanished represents William Cowans with Jose Ortiz, offering proven ability at the claiming level with tactical riding guidance. Royalewithcheese brings early speed for Jeff Hiles with Corey Lanerie providing veteran guidance.

The large field creates significant pace pressure with multiple speed types entered. Late-runners should benefit from the projected honest tempo.

Selections: Volatile Market to win, Vanished second, Royalewithcheese third

Race 8 – $141,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs)

This $141,000 allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward at six furlongs presents a competitive field of seven horses with excellent early betting line value. The conditions favor horses which have never won $18,000 three times other than maiden, claiming, starter, restricted, or state bred, or which have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter, restricted, or state bred since December 25, with a $100,000 claiming price option.​

Top Contenders

Harrodsburg enters as the early 2/1 morning line favorite for Michael Tomlinson with Jaime Torres aboard. The five-year-old gelding finished second over course and distance recently in a similar allowance optional claiming event on September 12, demonstrating fitness and form at the conditions. His consistent record in these competitive allowance events positions him well, having earned $88,830 for second place in his last Churchill Downs appearance. The Tomlinson barn shows solid success in allowance company, and Torres provides tactical expertise from his favorable post position.​

Alder represents David Jacobson with Jose Ortiz riding and enters at attractive 3/1 odds. The formscan notes that “Alder won impressively last time out and could follow up here,” suggesting strong current form and fitness. The four-year-old gelding carries 122 pounds but gets veteran guidance from Ortiz, who provides tactical advantages in competitive allowance events. The Jacobson barn shows confidence by running two horses in this event.​

Bango brings exceptional Churchill Downs credentials as the track record holder with 13 wins beneath the twin spires. The eight-year-old horse has established himself as a Churchill Downs legend, having surpassed the previous record of 11 wins during recent meets. Trainer Gregory Foley has developed Bango into a consistent performer at the venue, and Luis Saez provides tactical expertise for the veteran campaigner. His local success record at 4/1 odds offers solid value.​

Secondary Contenders

Happy American provides additional Jacobson representation with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard at 5/1 odds. The seven-year-old gelding won his maiden race at Churchill Downs in 2021 going 1 1/4 miles, demonstrating ability at the venue. Recent analysis notes he “hasn’t raced since May but was running then like a horse who needed a break, and at his best can swoop with one big run from last”. The layoff may have benefited his conditioning, and Ortiz Jr. provides championship-level tactical guidance.​

Billal enters for Hall of Fame trainer William Mott with Tyler Gaffalione riding at 5/1 odds. The four-year-old colt represents elite East Coast connections with proven success in allowance company. Mott maintains exceptional statistics with allowance horses, showing 41% win percentage in similar conditions. The combination with Gaffalione provides tactical advantages and proven success patterns.​

Lofty Adjudicator completes the field as the longest shot at 6/1 odds for Anna Navarrete with Walter Rodriguez aboard. The eight-year-old gelding brings veteran experience and has earned $9,209 per start with a best E Speed Figure of 101. His longshot odds may provide value in exotic wagers.​

Spankster enters at 20/1 odds for S. Jade Cunningham with Francisco Arrieta riding. The six-year-old horse represents the longest odds in the field but could provide exotic value if the pace sets up favorably for closers.​

Pace Analysis

The six-furlong distance typically produces honest early fractions at Churchill Downs, favoring horses with early tactical speed and sustained sprint ability. Harrodsburg brings proven gate speed with the ability to rate behind pace, while Bango demonstrates tactical versatility from his extensive track experience.​

The pace scenario appears moderate with multiple horses showing similar tactical approaches. The presence of proven speed horses like Harrodsburg and the tactical flexibility of Bango should create honest fractions without excessive early pressure.

Key Angles

Bango’s Churchill Downs record provides the strongest venue-specific angle with his unprecedented 13 wins at the track. His local dominance and proven ability in sprint races create compelling betting value at 4/1 odds.​

The Jacobson barn’s dual representation with both Alder and Happy American suggests strong confidence in the race setup and conditions. Alder’s recent impressive victory combined with Ortiz’s tactical skills offers solid win potential.​

The William Mott factor with Billal represents proven class and training expertise, with Mott’s 41% win rate in allowance conditions supporting strong consideration.​

Wagering Analysis

Race 9 – $71,000 Claiming Turf Mile (1 Mile)

Eleven fillies and mares conclude the card in this $32,000 claiming turf route. Love Her Lots brings proven turf form for Michael Maker with Tyler Gaffalione, combining grass expertise with tactical riding skills. The Maker barn excels on the Churchill Downs turf course.

Steampunk represents Christopher Davis with Luis Saez, offering proven versatility and tactical advantages. Morning Miracle provides consistent form for Jordan Blair with Jaime Torres guiding the tactical approach.

The mile distance on turf allows for varied tactical approaches with the rail positioned at 36 feet creating multiple racing paths.

Selections: Love Her Lots to win, Steampunk second, Morning Miracle third

Jockey Analysis

Tyler Gaffalione leads today’s riding assignments with six mounts, demonstrating strong barn confidence across multiple races. His combination with proven trainers like Mark Casse, Joe Sharp, and Michael Maker provides significant advantages.​

Luis Saez rides five races, bringing tactical expertise and strong form throughout the current meet. His association with successful barns creates multiple winning opportunities.

Jose Ortiz handles four assignments, combining championship-level skills with proven success at Churchill Downs. Irad Ortiz Jr. provides elite riding on three selected mounts.

Trainer Insights

Steven Asmussen brings multiple runners with proven success at the claiming level. His aggressive tactical approach suits today’s competitive claiming conditions.​

Brad Cox leads the current trainer standings at Churchill Downs with exceptional statistics. His entries command respect across all conditions.​

Mark Casse shows consistent success with developing horses, particularly fillies in maiden and allowance conditions. His tactical approach produces steady improvement patterns.

Wagering Strategy

The Pick Five covering races 1-5 offers value with the carryover creating enhanced payouts. Focus on Elegant Miss as a single in Race 5 while spreading in the competitive claiming events.

The Derby City Six Jackpot shows a significant carryover of $135,547 beginning in Race 4. Target the maiden special weight and allowance races for singles while spreading in claiming events.​

Late Pick Three covering races 7-9 provides attractive payouts with competitive field sizes creating multiple winning combinations. Focus on proven connections while considering pace scenarios in the larger fields.

Best Bets: Elegant Miss (Race 5), Billal (Race 8), Love Her Lots (Race 9)

Value Plays: Right On Right On (Race 1), Hampton’s Affair (Race 3), Volatile Market (Race 7et (Race 7)