Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Finger Lakes Racetrack, October 6, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Trew Violence (5/2)
Place:5Solo Dancing (3/1)
Show:7I'm Solo N In Love (7/2)
Other contenders:2Notfanutin (5/1), 3Instant Success (8/1)
Rest of field:6Bolt To Run (12/1), 1Going Home Now (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 735614
🎯 Longshots: 4365712
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Cinnamon Sugar (5/2)
Place:5Big Advantage (2/1)
Show:6Lollipops (4/1)
Other contenders:2Only In My Dreams (5/1), 3Jessica's Race (6/1), 1Classiwest (15/1)
Rest of field:4Cue The Music (15/1), 7Change Order (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 536214
🎯 Longshots: 81564273
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3He Has It All (7/2)
Place:2Father Walsh (3/1)
Show:5Heads Or Tails (6/1)
Other contenders:4Allo Enry (4/1), 7Max Foster (5/1), 1Mister J T (6/1)
Rest of field:6Invaluable Will (15/1), 8Smokin' Alone (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 251768
🎯 Longshots: 63251748
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Gresham's Law (3/1)
Place:6Honorable Becky (7/2)
Show:3Mermaid Magic (4/1)
Other contenders:1Playingon Broadway (5/1), 5Tenacious Child (8/1), 4Gramma G G (6/1)
Rest of field:7Light The Mira (10/1), 8Kozy Bee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256348
🎯 Longshots: 56273184
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:6Always Packen (5/2)
Place:1Gitole (7/2)
Show:2Wingo Starr (5/1)
Other contenders:3Big Ego (8/1), 7Sunshine Bobalou (6/1), 9Tony Hooks (5/1)
Rest of field:4Mr. Pools (12/1), 5Baracudabobbi (15/1), 8Taqueeto Jones (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345671
🎯 Longshots: 634152978
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Keigs (5/2)
Place:2Morning Cup (7/2)
Show:7Emerald Forest (4/1)
Other contenders:1Limit Up (5/1), 8Sharpaz (5/1), 3Monomoy Beach (8/1)
Rest of field:4Muazarah (15/1), 6Paint The Line (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 427153
🎯 Longshots: 54632718
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Rumblyoungmanrumbl (4/1)
Place:4Isola D'oro (7/2)
Show:2Poppy's Ticket (8/1)
Other contenders:7Start The Day (6/1), 9By Mink Standards (5/1), 3Magic Beach (10/1), 10Followill (15/1)
Rest of field:8Arch's Assault (12/1), 11Jake's Orchard (12/1), 6Sunday's Currency (20/1), 5Call Saul (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8111532
🎯 Longshots: 2103811146975
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6La Dinamita (3/1)
Place:3Immortal Poet (7/2)
Show:2Wildcat Annie (4/1)
Other contenders:4Bluesette (5/1), 7Funny Forecast (6/1), 9Volamo (8/1)
Rest of field:8Candy Is Dandy (15/1), 5Honey In The Bank (20/1), 1Bounty Killah (25/1), 10Outta The Cloud (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 675982
🎯 Longshots: 68329475110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Finger Lakes Racetrack — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 98 graded races at Finger Lakes Racetrack, 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-05.

0%10%20%31%41%Our top pick: 32.7% from 98 racesOur top pick32.7%Expert consensus pick: 26.5% from 98 racesExpert consensus pick26.5%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick32.7%98
Expert consensus pick26.5%98
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
Win:4Trew Violence (5/2) 37% · fair 3-2 overlay +50%
Place:5Solo Dancing (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -37%
Show:7I'm Solo N In Love (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -27%
Other contenders:2Notfanutin (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 3Instant Success (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:6Bolt To Run (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%, 1Going Home Now (8/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -78%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Trew Violence — 37.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Trew Violence37.5% ◀Solo Dancing — 17.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Solo Dancing17.3%I'M Solo N In Love — 17.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1I'M Solo N In Love17.2%Notfanutin — 13.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Notfanutin13.3%Instant Success — 7.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Instant Success7.9%Bolt To Run — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Bolt To Run4.2%Going Home Now — 2.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Going Home Now2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Trew Violence37.5%2.5/1
Solo Dancing17.3%3/1
I'M Solo N In Love17.2%3.5/1
Notfanutin13.3%5/1
Instant Success7.9%8/1
Bolt To Run4.2%12/1
Going Home Now2.7%8/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTrew Violence: model 37.5% vs market 23.3% (+14.2 points)Trew Violence+14.2Solo Dancing: model 17.3% vs market 20.4% (-3.2 points)Solo Dancing-3.2I'M Solo N In Love: model 17.2% vs market 18.2% (-1.0 points)I'M Solo N In Love-1.0Notfanutin: model 13.3% vs market 13.6% (-0.3 points)Notfanutin-0.3Instant Success: model 7.9% vs market 9.1% (-1.2 points)Instant Success-1.2Bolt To Run: model 4.2% vs market 6.3% (-2.1 points)Bolt To Run-2.1Going Home Now: model 2.7% vs market 9.1% (-6.4 points)Going Home Now-6.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Trew Violence37.5%23.3%+14.2
Solo Dancing17.3%20.4%-3.2
I'M Solo N In Love17.2%18.2%-1.0
Notfanutin13.3%13.6%-0.3
Instant Success7.9%9.1%-1.2
Bolt To Run4.2%6.3%-2.1
Going Home Now2.7%9.1%-6.4
🌧️ Off-track: 736514
🎯 Longshots: 4365712
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:8Cinnamon Sugar (5/2) 34% · fair 2-1 overlay +28%
Place:6Lollipops (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:5Big Advantage (2/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -63%
Other contenders:2Only In My Dreams (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%, 3Jessica's Race (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 1Classiwest (15/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:7Change Order (20/1) 3% · fair 39-1 underlay -49%, 4Cue The Music (15/1) 2% · fair 95-2 underlay -68%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cinnamon Sugar — 33.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Cinnamon Sugar33.9% ◀Lollipops — 21.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Lollipops21.6%Big Advantage — 15.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Big Advantage15.5%Only In My Dreams — 11.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Only In My Dreams11.5%Jessica'S Race — 8.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Jessica'S Race8.7%Classiwest — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Classiwest4.2%Change Order — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Change Order2.5%Cue The Music — 2.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Cue The Music2.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cinnamon Sugar33.9%2.5/1
Lollipops21.6%4/1
Big Advantage15.5%2/1
Only In My Dreams11.5%5/1
Jessica'S Race8.7%6/1
Classiwest4.2%15/1
Change Order2.5%20/1
Cue The Music2.1%15/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCinnamon Sugar: model 33.9% vs market 22.0% (+11.9 points)Cinnamon Sugar+11.9Lollipops: model 21.6% vs market 15.4% (+6.3 points)Lollipops+6.3Big Advantage: model 15.5% vs market 25.6% (-10.1 points)Big Advantage-10.1Only In My Dreams: model 11.5% vs market 12.8% (-1.3 points)Only In My Dreams-1.3Jessica'S Race: model 8.7% vs market 11.0% (-2.3 points)Jessica'S Race-2.3Classiwest: model 4.2% vs market 4.8% (-0.6 points)Classiwest-0.6Change Order: model 2.5% vs market 3.7% (-1.2 points)Change Order-1.2Cue The Music: model 2.1% vs market 4.8% (-2.7 points)Cue The Music-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cinnamon Sugar33.9%22.0%+11.9
Lollipops21.6%15.4%+6.3
Big Advantage15.5%25.6%-10.1
Only In My Dreams11.5%12.8%-1.3
Jessica'S Race8.7%11.0%-2.3
Classiwest4.2%4.8%-0.6
Change Order2.5%3.7%-1.2
Cue The Music2.1%4.8%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 531624
🎯 Longshots: 81564273
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
Win:5Heads Or Tails (6/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +48%
Place:3He Has It All (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:2Father Walsh (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -42%
Other contenders:4Allo Enry (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -31%, 7Max Foster (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1, 1Mister J T (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%
Rest of field:6Invaluable Will (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -43%, 8Smokin' Alone (20/1) 3% · fair 77-2 underlay -48%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Heads Or Tails — 19.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Heads Or Tails19.8% ◀He Has It All — 18.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1He Has It All18.0%Father Walsh — 16.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Father Walsh16.2%Allo Enry — 14.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Allo Enry14.8%Max Foster — 14.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Max Foster14.5%Mister J T — 10.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Mister J T10.5%Invaluable Will — 3.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Invaluable Will3.6%Smokin' Alone — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Smokin' Alone2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Heads Or Tails19.8%6/1
He Has It All18.0%3.5/1
Father Walsh16.2%3/1
Allo Enry14.8%4/1
Max Foster14.5%5/1
Mister J T10.5%6/1
Invaluable Will3.6%15/1
Smokin' Alone2.5%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHeads Or Tails: model 19.8% vs market 11.6% (+8.2 points)Heads Or Tails+8.2He Has It All: model 18.0% vs market 18.0% (-0.0 points)He Has It All-0.0Father Walsh: model 16.2% vs market 20.2% (-4.0 points)Father Walsh-4.0Allo Enry: model 14.8% vs market 16.2% (-1.4 points)Allo Enry-1.4Max Foster: model 14.5% vs market 13.5% (+1.0 points)Max Foster+1.0Mister J T: model 10.5% vs market 11.6% (-1.0 points)Mister J T-1.0Invaluable Will: model 3.6% vs market 5.1% (-1.4 points)Invaluable Will-1.4Smokin' Alone: model 2.5% vs market 3.9% (-1.3 points)Smokin' Alone-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Heads Or Tails19.8%11.6%+8.2
He Has It All18.0%18.0%-0.0
Father Walsh16.2%20.2%-4.0
Allo Enry14.8%16.2%-1.4
Max Foster14.5%13.5%+1.0
Mister J T10.5%11.6%-1.0
Invaluable Will3.6%5.1%-1.4
Smokin' Alone2.5%3.9%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 251687
🎯 Longshots: 63251748
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:7Light The Mira (10/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +127%
Place:6Honorable Becky (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29%
Show:2Gresham's Law (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -48%
Other contenders:1Playingon Broadway (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -33%, 3Mermaid Magic (4/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -51%, 5Tenacious Child (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Rest of field:4Gramma G G (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -35%, 8Kozy Bee (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Light The Mira — 18.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Light The Mira18.5% ◀Honorable Becky — 16.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Honorable Becky16.8%Gresham'S Law — 14.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Gresham'S Law14.9%Playingon Broadway — 11.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Playingon Broadway11.9%Mermaid Magic — 10.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Mermaid Magic10.9%Tenacious Child — 10.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Tenacious Child10.2%Gramma G G — 9.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Gramma G G9.8%Kozy Bee — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Kozy Bee7.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Light The Mira18.5%10/1
Honorable Becky16.8%3.5/1
Gresham'S Law14.9%3/1
Playingon Broadway11.9%5/1
Mermaid Magic10.9%4/1
Tenacious Child10.2%8/1
Gramma G G9.8%6/1
Kozy Bee7.1%10/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLight The Mira: model 18.5% vs market 7.1% (+11.4 points)Light The Mira+11.4Honorable Becky: model 16.8% vs market 17.4% (-0.6 points)Honorable Becky-0.6Gresham'S Law: model 14.9% vs market 19.6% (-4.7 points)Gresham'S Law-4.7Playingon Broadway: model 11.9% vs market 13.1% (-1.2 points)Playingon Broadway-1.2Mermaid Magic: model 10.9% vs market 15.7% (-4.8 points)Mermaid Magic-4.8Tenacious Child: model 10.2% vs market 8.7% (+1.5 points)Tenacious Child+1.5Gramma G G: model 9.8% vs market 11.2% (-1.4 points)Gramma G G-1.4Kozy Bee: model 7.1% vs market 7.1% (-0.1 points)Kozy Bee-0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Light The Mira18.5%7.1%+11.4
Honorable Becky16.8%17.4%-0.6
Gresham'S Law14.9%19.6%-4.7
Playingon Broadway11.9%13.1%-1.2
Mermaid Magic10.9%15.7%-4.8
Tenacious Child10.2%8.7%+1.5
Gramma G G9.8%11.2%-1.4
Kozy Bee7.1%7.1%-0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 256348
🎯 Longshots: 56273184
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:1Gitole (7/2) 27% · fair 5-2 overlay +30%
Place:6Always Packen (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -29%
Show:7Sunshine Bobalou (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:2Wingo Starr (5/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -43%, 9Tony Hooks (5/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -46%, 3Big Ego (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -26%
Rest of field:4Mr. Pools (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -25%, 5Baracudabobbi (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -48%, 8Taqueeto Jones (20/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -46%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Gitole — 27.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Gitole27.1% ◀Always Packen — 22.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Always Packen22.2%Sunshine Bobalou — 10.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Sunshine Bobalou10.4%Wingo Starr — 10.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Wingo Starr10.3%Tony Hooks — 9.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Tony Hooks9.7%Big Ego — 8.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Big Ego8.5%Mr. Pools — 5.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Mr. Pools5.9%Baracudabobbi — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Baracudabobbi3.4%Taqueeto Jones — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Taqueeto Jones2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Gitole27.1%3.5/1
Always Packen22.2%2.5/1
Sunshine Bobalou10.4%6/1
Wingo Starr10.3%5/1
Tony Hooks9.7%5/1
Big Ego8.5%8/1
Mr. Pools5.9%12/1
Baracudabobbi3.4%15/1
Taqueeto Jones2.6%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGitole: model 27.1% vs market 17.3% (+9.7 points)Gitole+9.7Always Packen: model 22.2% vs market 22.3% (-0.1 points)Always Packen-0.1Sunshine Bobalou: model 10.4% vs market 11.1% (-0.7 points)Sunshine Bobalou-0.7Wingo Starr: model 10.3% vs market 13.0% (-2.7 points)Wingo Starr-2.7Tony Hooks: model 9.7% vs market 13.0% (-3.3 points)Tony Hooks-3.3Big Ego: model 8.5% vs market 8.7% (-0.2 points)Big Ego-0.2Mr. Pools: model 5.9% vs market 6.0% (-0.1 points)Mr. Pools-0.1Baracudabobbi: model 3.4% vs market 4.9% (-1.5 points)Baracudabobbi-1.5Taqueeto Jones: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Taqueeto Jones-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Gitole27.1%17.3%+9.7
Always Packen22.2%22.3%-0.1
Sunshine Bobalou10.4%11.1%-0.7
Wingo Starr10.3%13.0%-2.7
Tony Hooks9.7%13.0%-3.3
Big Ego8.5%8.7%-0.2
Mr. Pools5.9%6.0%-0.1
Baracudabobbi3.4%4.9%-1.5
Taqueeto Jones2.6%3.7%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 345671
🎯 Longshots: 634152978
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:5Keigs (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -35%
Place:7Emerald Forest (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:1Limit Up (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:2Morning Cup (7/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -44%, 3Monomoy Beach (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 8Sharpaz (5/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -56%
Rest of field:4Muazarah (15/1) 8% · fair 25-2, 6Paint The Line (12/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -58%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Keigs — 20.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Keigs20.6% ◀Emerald Forest — 20.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Emerald Forest20.4%Limit Up — 14.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Limit Up14.7%Morning Cup — 13.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Morning Cup13.7%Monomoy Beach — 11.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Monomoy Beach11.6%Sharpaz — 8.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Sharpaz8.0%Muazarah — 7.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Muazarah7.5%Paint The Line — 3.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Paint The Line3.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Keigs20.6%2.5/1
Emerald Forest20.4%4/1
Limit Up14.7%5/1
Morning Cup13.7%3.5/1
Monomoy Beach11.6%8/1
Sharpaz8.0%5/1
Muazarah7.5%15/1
Paint The Line3.4%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKeigs: model 20.6% vs market 22.1% (-1.5 points)Keigs-1.5Emerald Forest: model 20.4% vs market 15.5% (+5.0 points)Emerald Forest+5.0Limit Up: model 14.7% vs market 12.9% (+1.8 points)Limit Up+1.8Morning Cup: model 13.7% vs market 17.2% (-3.5 points)Morning Cup-3.5Monomoy Beach: model 11.6% vs market 8.6% (+3.0 points)Monomoy Beach+3.0Sharpaz: model 8.0% vs market 12.9% (-4.9 points)Sharpaz-4.9Muazarah: model 7.5% vs market 4.8% (+2.7 points)Muazarah+2.7Paint The Line: model 3.4% vs market 6.0% (-2.6 points)Paint The Line-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Keigs20.6%22.1%-1.5
Emerald Forest20.4%15.5%+5.0
Limit Up14.7%12.9%+1.8
Morning Cup13.7%17.2%-3.5
Monomoy Beach11.6%8.6%+3.0
Sharpaz8.0%12.9%-4.9
Muazarah7.5%4.8%+2.7
Paint The Line3.4%6.0%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 471253
🎯 Longshots: 54632718
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:4Isola D'oro (7/2) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +49%
Place:1Rumblyoungmanrumbl (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -33%
Show:7Start The Day (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:2Poppy's Ticket (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 9By Mink Standards (5/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -49%, 10Followill (15/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 3Magic Beach (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:8Arch's Assault (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -38%, 11Jake's Orchard (12/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -51%, 5Call Saul (20/1) 2% · fair 48-1 underlay -58%, 6Sunday's Currency (20/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -60%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Isola D'Oro — 29.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Isola D'Oro29.9% ◀Rumblyoungmanrumbl — 14.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Rumblyoungmanrumbl14.3%Start The Day — 11.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Start The Day11.6%Poppy'S Ticket — 9.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Poppy'S Ticket9.3%By Mink Standards — 9.3% win probability, morning line 5/1By Mink Standards9.3%Followill — 6.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Followill6.7%Magic Beach — 6.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Magic Beach6.2%Arch'S Assault — 4.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Arch'S Assault4.9%Jake'S Orchard — 3.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Jake'S Orchard3.9%Call Saul — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Call Saul2.0%Sunday'S Currency — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Sunday'S Currency1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Isola D'Oro29.9%3.5/1
Rumblyoungmanrumbl14.3%4/1
Start The Day11.6%6/1
Poppy'S Ticket9.3%8/1
By Mink Standards9.3%5/1
Followill6.7%15/1
Magic Beach6.2%10/1
Arch'S Assault4.9%12/1
Jake'S Orchard3.9%12/1
Call Saul2.0%20/1
Sunday'S Currency1.9%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherIsola D'Oro: model 29.9% vs market 17.8% (+12.0 points)Isola D'Oro+12.0Rumblyoungmanrumbl: model 14.3% vs market 16.1% (-1.8 points)Rumblyoungmanrumbl-1.8Start The Day: model 11.6% vs market 11.5% (+0.2 points)Start The Day+0.2Poppy'S Ticket: model 9.3% vs market 8.9% (+0.4 points)Poppy'S Ticket+0.4By Mink Standards: model 9.3% vs market 13.4% (-4.1 points)By Mink Standards-4.1Followill: model 6.7% vs market 5.0% (+1.6 points)Followill+1.6Magic Beach: model 6.2% vs market 7.3% (-1.1 points)Magic Beach-1.1Arch'S Assault: model 4.9% vs market 6.2% (-1.2 points)Arch'S Assault-1.2Jake'S Orchard: model 3.9% vs market 6.2% (-2.3 points)Jake'S Orchard-2.3Call Saul: model 2.0% vs market 3.8% (-1.8 points)Call Saul-1.8Sunday'S Currency: model 1.9% vs market 3.8% (-1.9 points)Sunday'S Currency-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Isola D'Oro29.9%17.8%+12.0
Rumblyoungmanrumbl14.3%16.1%-1.8
Start The Day11.6%11.5%+0.2
Poppy'S Ticket9.3%8.9%+0.4
By Mink Standards9.3%13.4%-4.1
Followill6.7%5.0%+1.6
Magic Beach6.2%7.3%-1.1
Arch'S Assault4.9%6.2%-1.2
Jake'S Orchard3.9%6.2%-2.3
Call Saul2.0%3.8%-1.8
Sunday'S Currency1.9%3.8%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 8151132
🎯 Longshots: 2103811146975
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
Win:6La Dinamita (3/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:7Funny Forecast (6/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +58%
Show:4Bluesette (5/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:2Wildcat Annie (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -48%, 9Volamo (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 3Immortal Poet (7/2) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -75%
Rest of field:8Candy Is Dandy (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 5Honey In The Bank (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%, 1Bounty Killah (25/1) 2% · fair 95-2 underlay -47%, 10Outta The Cloud (20/1) 1% · fair 76-1 underlay -74%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

La Dinamita — 29.0% win probability, morning line 3/1La Dinamita29.0% ◀Funny Forecast — 20.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Funny Forecast20.8%Bluesette — 13.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Bluesette13.5%Wildcat Annie — 11.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Wildcat Annie11.6%Volamo — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Volamo7.6%Immortal Poet — 6.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Immortal Poet6.8%Candy Is Dandy — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Candy Is Dandy4.8%Honey In The Bank — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Honey In The Bank2.6%Bounty Killah — 2.1% win probability, morning line 25/1Bounty Killah2.1%Outta The Cloud — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Outta The Cloud1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
La Dinamita29.0%3/1
Funny Forecast20.8%6/1
Bluesette13.5%5/1
Wildcat Annie11.6%4/1
Volamo7.6%8/1
Immortal Poet6.8%3.5/1
Candy Is Dandy4.8%15/1
Honey In The Bank2.6%20/1
Bounty Killah2.1%25/1
Outta The Cloud1.3%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLa Dinamita: model 29.0% vs market 19.4% (+9.6 points)La Dinamita+9.6Funny Forecast: model 20.8% vs market 11.1% (+9.7 points)Funny Forecast+9.7Bluesette: model 13.5% vs market 12.9% (+0.6 points)Bluesette+0.6Wildcat Annie: model 11.6% vs market 15.5% (-3.9 points)Wildcat Annie-3.9Volamo: model 7.6% vs market 8.6% (-1.0 points)Volamo-1.0Immortal Poet: model 6.8% vs market 17.2% (-10.5 points)Immortal Poet-10.5Candy Is Dandy: model 4.8% vs market 4.8% (-0.1 points)Candy Is Dandy-0.1Honey In The Bank: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Honey In The Bank-1.1Bounty Killah: model 2.1% vs market 3.0% (-0.9 points)Bounty Killah-0.9Outta The Cloud: model 1.3% vs market 3.7% (-2.4 points)Outta The Cloud-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
La Dinamita29.0%19.4%+9.6
Funny Forecast20.8%11.1%+9.7
Bluesette13.5%12.9%+0.6
Wildcat Annie11.6%15.5%-3.9
Volamo7.6%8.6%-1.0
Immortal Poet6.8%17.2%-10.5
Candy Is Dandy4.8%4.8%-0.1
Honey In The Bank2.6%3.7%-1.1
Bounty Killah2.1%3.0%-0.9
Outta The Cloud1.3%3.7%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 675982
🎯 Longshots: 68329475110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
Win:4Trew Violence (5/2)
Place:5Solo Dancing (3/1)
Show:3Instant Success (8/1)
Other contenders:7I'm Solo N In Love (7/2), 2Notfanutin (5/1)
Rest of field:6Bolt To Run (12/1), 1Going Home Now (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 537461
🎯 Longshots: 4365712
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:8Cinnamon Sugar (5/2)
Place:5Big Advantage (2/1)
Show:6Lollipops (4/1)
Other contenders:2Only In My Dreams (5/1), 3Jessica's Race (6/1), 1Classiwest (15/1)
Rest of field:4Cue The Music (15/1), 7Change Order (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 538621
🎯 Longshots: 81564273
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
Win:4Allo Enry (4/1)
Place:5Heads Or Tails (6/1)
Show:3He Has It All (7/2)
Other contenders:7Max Foster (5/1), 2Father Walsh (3/1), 1Mister J T (6/1)
Rest of field:6Invaluable Will (15/1), 8Smokin' Alone (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524716
🎯 Longshots: 63251748
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:2Gresham's Law (3/1)
Place:6Honorable Becky (7/2)
Show:5Tenacious Child (8/1)
Other contenders:1Playingon Broadway (5/1), 3Mermaid Magic (4/1), 7Light The Mira (10/1)
Rest of field:4Gramma G G (6/1), 8Kozy Bee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256341
🎯 Longshots: 56273184
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:6Always Packen (5/2)
Place:1Gitole (7/2)
Show:4Mr. Pools (12/1)
Other contenders:7Sunshine Bobalou (6/1), 2Wingo Starr (5/1), 3Big Ego (8/1)
Rest of field:9Tony Hooks (5/1), 5Baracudabobbi (15/1), 8Taqueeto Jones (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436157
🎯 Longshots: 634152978
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:5Keigs (5/2)
Place:2Morning Cup (7/2)
Show:8Sharpaz (5/1)
Other contenders:1Limit Up (5/1), 7Emerald Forest (4/1), 6Paint The Line (12/1)
Rest of field:4Muazarah (15/1), 3Monomoy Beach (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524178
🎯 Longshots: 54632718
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:1Rumblyoungmanrumbl (4/1)
Place:4Isola D'oro (7/2)
Show:2Poppy's Ticket (8/1)
Other contenders:10Followill (15/1), 9By Mink Standards (5/1), 3Magic Beach (10/1), 8Arch's Assault (12/1)
Rest of field:7Start The Day (6/1), 11Jake's Orchard (12/1), 6Sunday's Currency (20/1), 5Call Saul (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8123114
🎯 Longshots: 2103811146975
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
Win:6La Dinamita (3/1)
Place:4Bluesette (5/1)
Show:2Wildcat Annie (4/1)
Other contenders:7Funny Forecast (6/1), 8Candy Is Dandy (15/1), 3Immortal Poet (7/2)
Rest of field:9Volamo (8/1), 5Honey In The Bank (20/1), 1Bounty Killah (25/1), 10Outta The Cloud (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 672895
🎯 Longshots: 68329475110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #8 over #5 ($1 straight; box #8-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #5, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #7, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.41 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
710Followill15/1—8.2%+33.5%0.56%$0.56
88Candy Is Dandy15/1—7.1%+14.7%0.24%$0.24
TOTAL across 2 plays:0.8%$0.80
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
Win:4Trew Violence (5/2)
Place:5Solo Dancing (3/1)
Show:2Notfanutin (5/1)
Other contenders:3Instant Success (8/1), 7I'm Solo N In Love (7/2)
Rest of field:6Bolt To Run (12/1), 1Going Home Now (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453761
🎯 Longshots: 4365712
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:8Cinnamon Sugar (5/2)
Place:5Big Advantage (2/1)
Show:2Only In My Dreams (5/1)
Other contenders:6Lollipops (4/1), 1Classiwest (15/1), 3Jessica's Race (6/1)
Rest of field:4Cue The Music (15/1), 7Change Order (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 582631
🎯 Longshots: 81564273
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
Win:4Allo Enry (4/1)
Place:3He Has It All (7/2)
Show:5Heads Or Tails (6/1)
Other contenders:6Invaluable Will (15/1), 7Max Foster (5/1), 2Father Walsh (3/1)
Rest of field:1Mister J T (6/1), 8Smokin' Alone (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453627
🎯 Longshots: 63251748
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:2Gresham's Law (3/1)
Place:1Playingon Broadway (5/1)
Show:5Tenacious Child (8/1)
Other contenders:6Honorable Becky (7/2), 7Light The Mira (10/1), 4Gramma G G (6/1)
Rest of field:3Mermaid Magic (4/1), 8Kozy Bee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256413
🎯 Longshots: 56273184
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:6Always Packen (5/2)
Place:1Gitole (7/2)
Show:4Mr. Pools (12/1)
Other contenders:3Big Ego (8/1), 7Sunshine Bobalou (6/1), 2Wingo Starr (5/1)
Rest of field:5Baracudabobbi (15/1), 9Tony Hooks (5/1), 8Taqueeto Jones (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 643157
🎯 Longshots: 634152978
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:5Keigs (5/2)
Place:2Morning Cup (7/2)
Show:1Limit Up (5/1)
Other contenders:8Sharpaz (5/1), 7Emerald Forest (4/1), 4Muazarah (15/1)
Rest of field:6Paint The Line (12/1), 3Monomoy Beach (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 542178
🎯 Longshots: 54632718
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:2Poppy's Ticket (8/1)
Place:10Followill (15/1)
Show:4Isola D'oro (7/2)
Other contenders:1Rumblyoungmanrumbl (4/1), 7Start The Day (6/1), 9By Mink Standards (5/1), 3Magic Beach (10/1)
Rest of field:8Arch's Assault (12/1), 11Jake's Orchard (12/1), 6Sunday's Currency (20/1), 5Call Saul (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1824311
🎯 Longshots: 2103811146975
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #10, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
Win:6La Dinamita (3/1)
Place:3Immortal Poet (7/2)
Show:2Wildcat Annie (4/1)
Other contenders:4Bluesette (5/1), 7Funny Forecast (6/1), 9Volamo (8/1)
Rest of field:8Candy Is Dandy (15/1), 5Honey In The Bank (20/1), 10Outta The Cloud (20/1), 1Bounty Killah (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 673298
🎯 Longshots: 68329475110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
Win:4Trew Violence (5/2)
Place:5Solo Dancing (3/1)
Show:3Instant Success (8/1)
Other contenders:2Notfanutin (5/1), 7I'm Solo N In Love (7/2)
Rest of field:6Bolt To Run (12/1), 1Going Home Now (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453761
🎯 Longshots: 4365712
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:8Cinnamon Sugar (5/2)
Place:5Big Advantage (2/1)
Show:6Lollipops (4/1)
Other contenders:2Only In My Dreams (5/1), 1Classiwest (15/1), 3Jessica's Race (6/1)
Rest of field:4Cue The Music (15/1), 7Change Order (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 586231
🎯 Longshots: 81564273
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
Win:2Father Walsh (3/1)
Place:3He Has It All (7/2)
Show:5Heads Or Tails (6/1)
Other contenders:1Mister J T (6/1), 7Max Foster (5/1), 4Allo Enry (4/1)
Rest of field:6Invaluable Will (15/1), 8Smokin' Alone (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 251736
🎯 Longshots: 63251748
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:2Gresham's Law (3/1)
Place:6Honorable Becky (7/2)
Show:1Playingon Broadway (5/1)
Other contenders:5Tenacious Child (8/1), 7Light The Mira (10/1), 3Mermaid Magic (4/1)
Rest of field:4Gramma G G (6/1), 8Kozy Bee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 256314
🎯 Longshots: 56273184
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:1Gitole (7/2)
Place:6Always Packen (5/2)
Show:2Wingo Starr (5/1)
Other contenders:4Mr. Pools (12/1), 3Big Ego (8/1), 9Tony Hooks (5/1)
Rest of field:7Sunshine Bobalou (6/1), 5Baracudabobbi (15/1), 8Taqueeto Jones (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364157
🎯 Longshots: 634152978
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:5Keigs (5/2)
Place:1Limit Up (5/1)
Show:2Morning Cup (7/2)
Other contenders:7Emerald Forest (4/1), 8Sharpaz (5/1), 3Monomoy Beach (8/1)
Rest of field:4Muazarah (15/1), 6Paint The Line (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 512748
🎯 Longshots: 54632718
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:4Isola D'oro (7/2)
Place:1Rumblyoungmanrumbl (4/1)
Show:2Poppy's Ticket (8/1)
Other contenders:7Start The Day (6/1), 9By Mink Standards (5/1), 10Followill (15/1), 3Magic Beach (10/1)
Rest of field:11Jake's Orchard (12/1), 8Arch's Assault (12/1), 6Sunday's Currency (20/1), 5Call Saul (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1824311
🎯 Longshots: 2103811146975
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
Win:6La Dinamita (3/1)
Place:7Funny Forecast (6/1)
Show:2Wildcat Annie (4/1)
Other contenders:3Immortal Poet (7/2), 4Bluesette (5/1), 8Candy Is Dandy (15/1)
Rest of field:9Volamo (8/1), 5Honey In The Bank (20/1), 1Bounty Killah (25/1), 10Outta The Cloud (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 672389
🎯 Longshots: 68329475110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #4,#5,#7 (72%) / R2: #8,#6,#5 (71%) / R3: #5,#3,#2 (54%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #8,#6,#5 (71%) / R3: #5,#3,#2 (54%) / R4: #7,#6,#2 (50%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #1,#6,#7 (60%) / R6: #5,#7,#1 (56%) / R7: #4,#1,#7 (56%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #5,#7,#1 (56%) / R7: #4,#1,#7 (56%) / R8: #6,#7,#4 (63%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #4,#5,#7 (72%) / R2: #8,#6,#5 (71%) / R3: #5,#3,#2 (54%) / R4: #7,#6,#2 (50%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #1,#6,#7 (60%) / R6: #5,#7,#1 (56%) / R7: #4,#1,#7 (56%) / R8: #6,#7,#4 (63%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALLO ENRYALWAYS PACKENARCH'S ASSAULTBARACUDABOBBIBIG ADVANTAGE
BLUESETTEBOLT TO RUNBOUNTY KILLAHBY MINK STANDARDSCALL SAUL
CHANGE ORDERCINNAMON SUGARCLASSIWESTCUE THE MUSICEMERALD FOREST
FOLLOWILLFUNNY FORECASTGITOLEGOING HOME NOWGRAMMA G G
HE HAS IT ALLHEADS OR TAILSHONEY IN THE BANKHONORABLE BECKYI'M SOLO N IN LOVE
INSTANT SUCCESSINVALUABLE WILLISOLA D'OROJAKE'S ORCHARDJESSICA'S RACE
KOZY BEELA DINAMITALIGHT THE MIRALIMIT UPLOLLIPOPS
MAX FOSTERMERMAID MAGICMISTER J TMONOMOY BEACHMORNING CUP
MUAZARAHNOTFANUTINONLY IN MY DREAMSOUTTA THE CLOUDPAINT THE LINE
POPPY'S TICKETRUMBLYOUNGMANRUMBLSHARPAZSMOKIN' ALONESOLO DANCING
SUNDAY'S CURRENCYSUNSHINE BOBALOUTAQUEETO JONESTENACIOUS CHILDTONY HOOKS
VOLAMOWILDCAT ANNIEWINGO STARR

 


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