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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
| Race 1 Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 4Awesome Strike () |
| Place: | 5Idoneo () |
| Show: | 2Lucky Prince () |
| Other contenders: | 3Lightning Ridge (), 1Vadavvero () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 25431 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 43125 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 1Total Joy () |
| Place: | 8Ice Bar () |
| Show: | 2Kiyomori () |
| Other contenders: | 7Old Style Humor (), 6Ruthenian (), 3Recoup () |
| Rest of field: | 4Paddy'S Crown (), 5Hero'S Return () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 127634 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 17823645 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 4Pavoni () |
| Place: | 1Track And Trace () |
| Show: | 2The Butler Yates () |
| Other contenders: | 3Withoutmoreado () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4123 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1243 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 1 Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 5Idoneo () 32% · fair 2-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 4Awesome Strike () 25% · fair 3-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 3Lightning Ridge () 21% · fair 7-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Lucky Prince () 12% · fair 15-2, 1Vadavvero () 10% · fair 9-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 1 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 25431 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 43125 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 2 Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 1Total Joy () 25% · fair 3-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 8Ice Bar () 17% · fair 5-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 2Kiyomori () 12% · fair 15-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 5Hero'S Return () 11% · fair 8-1, 6Ruthenian () 11% · fair 17-2, 4Paddy'S Crown () 9% · fair 11-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 7Old Style Humor () 8% · fair 23-2, 3Recoup () 7% · fair 13-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 2 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 125647 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 17823645 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 3 Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 4Pavoni () 44% · fair 3-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 3Withoutmoreado () 25% · fair 3-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 1Track And Trace () 17% · fair 5-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2The Butler Yates () 13% · fair 13-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 3 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 4312 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 1243 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 1 Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 4Awesome Strike () |
| Place: | 5Idoneo () |
| Show: | 2Lucky Prince () |
| Other contenders: | 3Lightning Ridge (), 1Vadavvero () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 24531 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 43125 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 8Ice Bar () |
| Place: | 2Kiyomori () |
| Show: | 1Total Joy () |
| Other contenders: | 6Ruthenian (), 5Hero'S Return (), 4Paddy'S Crown () |
| Rest of field: | 7Old Style Humor (), 3Recoup () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 281654 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 17823645 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 4Pavoni () |
| Place: | 1Track And Trace () |
| Show: | 2The Butler Yates () |
| Other contenders: | 3Withoutmoreado () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4123 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1243 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #5, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #1 over #8 ($1 straight; box #1-#8 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 1 Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 3Lightning Ridge () |
| Place: | 4Awesome Strike () |
| Show: | 5Idoneo () |
| Other contenders: | 2Lucky Prince (), 1Vadavvero () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 32451 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 43125 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 2Kiyomori () |
| Place: | 4Paddy'S Crown () |
| Show: | 8Ice Bar () |
| Other contenders: | 1Total Joy (), 6Ruthenian (), 7Old Style Humor () |
| Rest of field: | 3Recoup (), 5Hero'S Return () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 241678 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 17823645 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 1Track And Trace () |
| Place: | 4Pavoni () |
| Show: | 2The Butler Yates () |
| Other contenders: | 3Withoutmoreado () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1423 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1243 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
| Race 1 Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 4Awesome Strike () |
| Place: | 5Idoneo () |
| Show: | 3Lightning Ridge () |
| Other contenders: | 2Lucky Prince (), 1Vadavvero () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 42531 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 43125 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 8Ice Bar () |
| Place: | 2Kiyomori () |
| Show: | 1Total Joy () |
| Other contenders: | 6Ruthenian (), 4Paddy'S Crown (), 7Old Style Humor () |
| Rest of field: | 3Recoup (), 5Hero'S Return () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 821647 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 17823645 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 4Pavoni () |
| Place: | 1Track And Trace () |
| Show: | 2The Butler Yates () |
| Other contenders: | 3Withoutmoreado () |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4123 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1243 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #5,#4,#3 (78%) / R2: #1,#8,#2 (54%) / R3: #4,#3 (70%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30% |
| AWESOME STRIKE | HERO'S RETURN | ICE BAR | IDONEO | KIYOMORI |
| LUCKY PRINCE | OLD STYLE HUMOR | PADDY'S CROWN | PAVONI | RECOUP |
| THE BUTLER YATES | TOTAL JOY | TRACK AND TRACE | VADAVVERO | WITHOUTMOREADO |
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