Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – GV, October 10, 2026


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Awesome Strike ()
Place:5Idoneo ()
Show:2Lucky Prince ()
Other contenders:3Lightning Ridge (), 1Vadavvero ()
🌧️ Off-track: 25431
🎯 Longshots: 43125
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Total Joy ()
Place:8Ice Bar ()
Show:2Kiyomori ()
Other contenders:7Old Style Humor (), 6Ruthenian (), 3Recoup ()
Rest of field:4Paddy'S Crown (), 5Hero'S Return ()
🌧️ Off-track: 127634
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Pavoni ()
Place:1Track And Trace ()
Show:2The Butler Yates ()
Other contenders:3Withoutmoreado ()
🌧️ Off-track: 4123
🎯 Longshots: 1243
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000
Win:5Idoneo () 32% · fair 2-1
Place:4Awesome Strike () 25% · fair 3-1
Show:3Lightning Ridge () 21% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:2Lucky Prince () 12% · fair 15-2, 1Vadavvero () 10% · fair 9-1
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Idoneo — 31.8% win probability, morning line 0/1Idoneo31.8% ◀Awesome Strike — 25.1% win probability, morning line 0/1Awesome Strike25.1%Lightning Ridge — 21.3% win probability, morning line 0/1Lightning Ridge21.3%Lucky Prince — 11.7% win probability, morning line 0/1Lucky Prince11.7%Vadavvero — 10.1% win probability, morning line 0/1Vadavvero10.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Idoneo31.8%0/1
Awesome Strike25.1%0/1
Lightning Ridge21.3%0/1
Lucky Prince11.7%0/1
Vadavvero10.1%0/1
🌧️ Off-track: 25431
🎯 Longshots: 43125
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000
Win:1Total Joy () 25% · fair 3-1
Place:8Ice Bar () 17% · fair 5-1
Show:2Kiyomori () 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:5Hero'S Return () 11% · fair 8-1, 6Ruthenian () 11% · fair 17-2, 4Paddy'S Crown () 9% · fair 11-1
Rest of field:7Old Style Humor () 8% · fair 23-2, 3Recoup () 7% · fair 13-1
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Total Joy — 25.1% win probability, morning line 0/1Total Joy25.1% ◀Ice Bar — 17.1% win probability, morning line 0/1Ice Bar17.1%Kiyomori — 11.9% win probability, morning line 0/1Kiyomori11.9%Hero'S Return — 11.4% win probability, morning line 0/1Hero'S Return11.4%Ruthenian — 10.8% win probability, morning line 0/1Ruthenian10.8%Paddy'S Crown — 8.5% win probability, morning line 0/1Paddy'S Crown8.5%Old Style Humor — 8.0% win probability, morning line 0/1Old Style Humor8.0%Recoup — 7.2% win probability, morning line 0/1Recoup7.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Total Joy25.1%0/1
Ice Bar17.1%0/1
Kiyomori11.9%0/1
Hero'S Return11.4%0/1
Ruthenian10.8%0/1
Paddy'S Crown8.5%0/1
Old Style Humor8.0%0/1
Recoup7.2%0/1
🌧️ Off-track: 125647
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000
Win:4Pavoni () 44% · fair 3-2
Place:3Withoutmoreado () 25% · fair 3-1
Show:1Track And Trace () 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:2The Butler Yates () 13% · fair 13-2
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Pavoni — 44.4% win probability, morning line 0/1Pavoni44.4% ◀Withoutmoreado — 25.3% win probability, morning line 0/1Withoutmoreado25.3%Track And Trace — 17.0% win probability, morning line 0/1Track And Trace17.0%The Butler Yates — 13.3% win probability, morning line 0/1The Butler Yates13.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Pavoni44.4%0/1
Withoutmoreado25.3%0/1
Track And Trace17.0%0/1
The Butler Yates13.3%0/1
🌧️ Off-track: 4312
🎯 Longshots: 1243
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000
Win:4Awesome Strike ()
Place:5Idoneo ()
Show:2Lucky Prince ()
Other contenders:3Lightning Ridge (), 1Vadavvero ()
🌧️ Off-track: 24531
🎯 Longshots: 43125
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000
Win:8Ice Bar ()
Place:2Kiyomori ()
Show:1Total Joy ()
Other contenders:6Ruthenian (), 5Hero'S Return (), 4Paddy'S Crown ()
Rest of field:7Old Style Humor (), 3Recoup ()
🌧️ Off-track: 281654
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000
Win:4Pavoni ()
Place:1Track And Trace ()
Show:2The Butler Yates ()
Other contenders:3Withoutmoreado ()
🌧️ Off-track: 4123
🎯 Longshots: 1243
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #8 ($1 straight; box #1-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000
Win:3Lightning Ridge ()
Place:4Awesome Strike ()
Show:5Idoneo ()
Other contenders:2Lucky Prince (), 1Vadavvero ()
🌧️ Off-track: 32451
🎯 Longshots: 43125
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000
Win:2Kiyomori ()
Place:4Paddy'S Crown ()
Show:8Ice Bar ()
Other contenders:1Total Joy (), 6Ruthenian (), 7Old Style Humor ()
Rest of field:3Recoup (), 5Hero'S Return ()
🌧️ Off-track: 241678
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000
Win:1Track And Trace ()
Place:4Pavoni ()
Show:2The Butler Yates ()
Other contenders:3Withoutmoreado ()
🌧️ Off-track: 1423
🎯 Longshots: 1243
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $15,000
Win:4Awesome Strike ()
Place:5Idoneo ()
Show:3Lightning Ridge ()
Other contenders:2Lucky Prince (), 1Vadavvero ()
🌧️ Off-track: 42531
🎯 Longshots: 43125
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  Turf · Allowance · Purse $15,000
Win:8Ice Bar ()
Place:2Kiyomori ()
Show:1Total Joy ()
Other contenders:6Ruthenian (), 4Paddy'S Crown (), 7Old Style Humor ()
Rest of field:3Recoup (), 5Hero'S Return ()
🌧️ Off-track: 821647
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $25,000
Win:4Pavoni ()
Place:1Track And Trace ()
Show:2The Butler Yates ()
Other contenders:3Withoutmoreado ()
🌧️ Off-track: 4123
🎯 Longshots: 1243
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #5,#4,#3 (78%) / R2: #1,#8,#2 (54%) / R3: #4,#3 (70%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AWESOME STRIKEHERO'S RETURNICE BARIDONEOKIYOMORI
LUCKY PRINCEOLD STYLE HUMORPADDY'S CROWNPAVONIRECOUP
THE BUTLER YATESTOTAL JOYTRACK AND TRACEVADAVVEROWITHOUTMOREADO

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback