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Santa Anita Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the October 23, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%14%28%42%55%3%7%12%18%26%39%What we said — 3.1%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.4%What we said — 18.1%What we said — 25.9%What we said — 38.7%What we saidWhat happened — 3.5%What happened — 8.3%What happened — 13.6%What happened — 21.0%What happened — 30.1%What happened — 45.0%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.1%3.5%
7%7.4%8.3%
12%12.4%13.6%
18%18.1%21.0%
26%25.9%30.1%
39%38.7%45.0%

Race Day Overview

Santa Anita's Friday, October 23, 2026 program consists of nine races, with four turf races and five dirt races. The card offers maiden claiming, starter optional claiming, and claiming events, with purses ranging from $18,000 to $36,000. The first race is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. local time, and the final race is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. local time. The published track profile is a one-mile dirt oval with a seven-eighths-mile turf course.

The principal published change is the scratch of Fumo Grigio in Race 2. Cameron Slough is listed as an also-eligible in Race 9 rather than a confirmed starter. No other scratches or rider changes were shown in the available current entry information.

The strongest morning-line favorite on the card is Mighty Toro (POST 2) in Race 1 at 1-2. Other prominent favorites are Hankering (POST 8) in Race 4, Hoosick Falls (POST 2) in Race 6, Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) in Race 7, Miz Clubcali (POST 4) in Race 8, and Issa Court (POST 6) in Race 9.

The day also has a significant jockey-title subplot. Juan Hernandez, Emisael Jaramillo, Joel Rosario, and Kazushi Kimura were separated by only two wins entering the final portion of the autumn meet, making their mounts particularly important to monitor in the live pools.

Weather and Track Conditions

The available regional forecast calls for a return to dry, mostly sunny conditions on Friday after a Southern California storm system moves through the area. Temperatures should be comfortable, with nearby forecasts generally placing the afternoon high in the low-to-mid 70s.

No official morning track-condition report or maintenance bulletin was available in the current entry information. The most reasonable pre-race expectation is a dry dirt track and a usable turf course, but the turf condition should be confirmed before wagering because the preceding storm could affect moisture, footing, and rail placement.

The card contains four turf races: Races 1, 3, 5, and 9. If the turf course is listed firm, tactical speed and inside-saving trips should be given additional weight. If it is listed yielding or softer, proven turf stamina and late-running ability become more important, particularly in Races 1, 3, and 9.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

There is no verified same-day bias report or official maintenance note. Consequently, no fixed inside or outside bias should be assumed before the first dirt races are run.

Santa Anita's one-mile dirt course generally rewards horses that establish position without using excessive energy. Six-furlong races can favor speed, while one-mile races offer more opportunity for a stalker to secure a useful position before the first turn. The outside posts are not automatically disadvantageous, but a horse drawn wide must avoid being forced into a long first turn.

On turf, the principal issue is trip efficiency. Inside posts can save ground, but an inside horse may need racing luck if the pace collapses or the field compresses. Horses with tactical speed are preferable to deep closers unless the pace appears unusually strong.

The first two dirt races should be watched closely for evidence of a speed or inside-track bias. If front-runners are holding well, horses such as Amador (POST 7), Hankering (POST 8), Hoosick Falls (POST 2), and Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) become more attractive. If the track is tiring or closers are making sustained progress, the analysis should shift toward Redial (POST 3), Gairloch (POST 7), and Thirst For Faith (POST 8).

RACE 1 — Post 4:00/3:00/2:00/(1:00) — 1760f | T | M | Md 50000 | BUN | Purse $35,000

Pace Analysis

This one-mile turf maiden-claiming event appears to have a moderate pace rather than a true speed duel. Mighty Toro (POST 2) should secure a favorable forward position from the inside, while Fausto (POST 4) is the most likely rival to apply pressure. Corkscrew Andy (POST 1) should be able to save ground, and Marion Magic (POST 3) should receive a stalking trip.

The projected pace favors a horse that can settle within two or three lengths of the lead. A slow or moderate tempo would make the inside and tactical positions especially valuable.

Key Contenders

Mighty Toro (POST 2) is the clear class and speed-selection centerpiece. He is the morning-line favorite at 1-2 and owns the strongest overall profile according to the available ratings. Joel Rosario is an important positive, and the inside draw should allow Mighty Toro (POST 2) to establish position without spending much energy. The main concern is price: at 1-2, the horse must win at a very high rate to justify a straight wager.

Fausto (POST 4) is the principal danger. The 7-2 morning line is considerably more attractive than the favorite's price, and the post gives Fausto (POST 4) room to secure a clean stalking trip. If Mighty Toro (POST 2) fails to finish his work or encounters traffic, Fausto (POST 4) is the horse most likely to capitalize.

Secondary Choices

Corkscrew Andy (POST 1) has not hit the board in three prior turf-route starts, but the first-time claiming placement and second-start profile make him more interesting than the raw form suggests. The inside post should produce a ground-saving trip, and a contested stretch could help Corkscrew Andy (POST 1) remain involved.

Marion Magic (POST 3) has enough tactical ability to remain within range. The 6-1 morning line is fair, but Marion Magic (POST 3) needs improvement against the two primary contenders.

Longshots

Black Pearl (POST 5) is the outsider at 20-1. The wide post is not ideal in a short five-horse field, and Black Pearl (POST 5) needs a significant form reversal. The horse is usable only as a deep exotic inclusion.

Selections

Win: Fausto (POST 4)

Place: Mighty Toro (POST 2)

Show: Corkscrew Andy (POST 1)

The preferred value approach is to oppose Mighty Toro (POST 2) in the win pool if Fausto (POST 4) remains near the morning-line price. The exacta should emphasize Fausto (POST 4) and Mighty Toro (POST 2), with Corkscrew Andy (POST 1) underneath. A small saver exacta using Mighty Toro (POST 2) over Fausto (POST 4) is appropriate.

RACE 2 — Post 4:29/3:29/2:29/(1:29) — 1760f | D | M | Md 20000 | AON | Purse $21,000

Pace Analysis

The field is reduced to five active runners after the scratch of Fumo Grigio. Johnny B (POST 3) should be the controlling speed or closest presser, while Big Time Coach (POST 2) and Inca (POST 4) are likely to race within striking range. Romanticon (POST 1) and Spider John (POST 5) may be dependent on a pace collapse.

With only five starters, post position and tactical placement are more important than usual. Johnny B (POST 3) should get the cleanest trip.

Key Contenders

Johnny B (POST 3) is the published top selection and the 2-1 morning-line favorite. The current profile suggests upside and competitive speed figures, and the central post is ideal for a one-mile dirt maiden race. Johnny B (POST 3) should not need to commit too early, which is an advantage over this distance.

Big Time Coach (POST 2) is the logical alternative at 4-1. Joel Rosario gives Big Time Coach (POST 2) a significant rider upgrade on paper, and the inside draw should provide a stalking trip. The main question is whether Big Time Coach (POST 2) can finish the final furlong as strongly as Johnny B (POST 3).

Secondary Choices

Inca (POST 4) is a usable secondary horse at 6-1. The outside of the main pace group may allow Inca (POST 4) to avoid being shuffled back, although the rider will need to avoid making a premature move.

Romanticon (POST 1) is an underneath candidate. The inside post can help, but Romanticon (POST 1) needs a forward move in the second half of the race rather than simply saving ground.

Longshots

Spider John (POST 5) is 10-1 and must improve against more favorably positioned rivals. The scratch of Fumo Grigio reduces the field size but does not materially improve Spider John (POST 5) unless the horse can secure an uncontested outside stalking position.

Selections

Win: Johnny B (POST 3)

Place: Big Time Coach (POST 2)

Show: Inca (POST 4)

The best wager is Johnny B (POST 3) to win at 2-1 or higher. Use Johnny B (POST 3) and Big Time Coach (POST 2) in exactas, with Inca (POST 4) and Romanticon (POST 1) underneath. The race is also suitable for a modest early Pick 4 single on Johnny B (POST 3) if the price remains reasonable.

RACE 3 — Post 4:59/3:59/2:59/(1:59) — 1430f | T | C | Clm 30000n3l | BUN | Purse $27,000

Pace Analysis

Burning Rubber (POST 3) appears to have the most natural early speed and should be able to dictate or sit just off the lead. Mio Bambino (POST 4) is the main pace threat, with Sammy Davis (POST 2) positioned to obtain a ground-saving stalking trip. Gazon (POST 6) could be the late participant if the top two engage too soon.

The likely pace is moderate. That puts the race in the hands of Burning Rubber (POST 3) and Mio Bambino (POST 4), while making it difficult for the deeper outsiders to rally.

Key Contenders

Burning Rubber (POST 3) is the preferred selection. The projected pace profile gives Burning Rubber (POST 3) control, and the horse has been assigned the strongest available speed assessment among the principal contenders. Juan Hernandez is also in excellent position in the meet standings, adding confidence to the selection.

Mio Bambino (POST 4) is the most serious threat. The horse owns the highest listed recent rating in the field and has Joel Rosario aboard. Mio Bambino (POST 4) may be more effective if allowed to sit just off Burning Rubber (POST 3), rather than engaging in an extended duel.

Secondary Choices

Sammy Davis (POST 2) is the best value of the shorter-priced alternatives. The inside post and projected moderate pace should help Sammy Davis (POST 2) remain in contention. A clean inside trip could put Sammy Davis (POST 2) into the exacta at a useful price.

Gazon (POST 6) is a late-use horse. The outside post is manageable in a six-horse field, but Gazon (POST 6) needs the pace to become more demanding than expected.

Longshots

Amigo G A (POST 1) is 10-1 and could benefit from an inside trip if the leaders weaken. Straight Buzzin (POST 5) is the 12-1 outsider and needs a substantial improvement, but the horse can be included on the bottom of a large trifecta.

Selections

Win: Burning Rubber (POST 3)

Place: Mio Bambino (POST 4)

Show: Sammy Davis (POST 2)

Burning Rubber (POST 3) is a potential single in rolling Pick 3 and Pick 4 play. Exactas should use Burning Rubber (POST 3) and Mio Bambino (POST 4) on top, with Sammy Davis (POST 2) and Gazon (POST 6) underneath. A small trifecta using Amigo G A (POST 1) and Straight Buzzin (POST 5) in third can add value.

RACE 4 — Post 5:30/4:30/3:30/(2:30) — 1320f | D | C | Clm 12500n2l | BUN | Purse $20,000

Pace Analysis

Hankering (POST 8) and Amador (POST 7) are the key speed horses. Hankering (POST 8) may attempt to cross over from the outside, while Amador (POST 7) can press or stalk. Twilight Time (POST 3) should be positioned behind the primary pace group, and Precision (POST 6) is a possible late factor.

The pace could be honest but not excessive. The outside pair have the most apparent ability, but a wide trip could make Hankering (POST 8) vulnerable.

Key Contenders

Amador (POST 7) is the preferred betting choice despite being listed at 5-2. Jeff Mullins is having a strong autumn meet, and Amador (POST 7) has the profile of a horse capable of sitting just behind the speed before producing a sustained finish. The post is wide enough to provide options without forcing an immediate commitment.

Hankering (POST 8) is the morning-line favorite at even money. The horse possesses the strongest apparent speed profile, but the price is short and the outside draw introduces some risk. Hankering (POST 8) is more attractive as an exacta key than as a straight win bet unless the horse drifts above even money.

Secondary Choices

Twilight Time (POST 3) is the most appealing underneath horse. The inside-middle draw should produce an economical trip, and Twilight Time (POST 3) could receive the first opportunity if the two favorites tire.

Precision (POST 6) is an interesting 10-1 alternative. The horse needs to reproduce a competitive effort, but the outside stalking position may be advantageous if the track favors forward runners.

Longshots

Noble Minded (POST 5) is 12-1 and can be used sparingly in trifectas. Crucible (POST 1), Highland Echo (POST 2), and Kiddo Light (POST 4) are the remaining longshots and each needs significant improvement. Crucible (POST 1) at least has the benefit of the inside post, while Highland Echo (POST 2) and Kiddo Light (POST 4) appear dependent on a sharp form reversal.

Selections

Win: Amador (POST 7)

Place: Hankering (POST 8)

Show: Twilight Time (POST 3)

The preferred wager is Amador (POST 7) to win if the price reaches 2-1 or higher. Use Amador (POST 7) and Hankering (POST 8) in exactas, with Twilight Time (POST 3) and Precision (POST 6) underneath. If the track is strongly favoring speed, Hankering (POST 8) becomes more attractive; if outside horses are struggling, Amador (POST 7) should be downgraded slightly.

RACE 5 — Post 6:00/5:00/4:00/(3:00) — 1430f | T | CO | OClm 50000 | BUM | Purse $36,000

Pace Analysis

Winika (POST 1), Hey Lil Lady (POST 2), and Empress Matilda (POST 3) should establish the early complexion. Camila Catalina (POST 6) can settle just behind them, while Princess Snow (POST 5) appears suited to a stalking or closing trip. The pace should be fair rather than fast.

The race favors a horse with tactical speed and the ability to finish. Winika (POST 1) should receive the most economical trip, while Princess Snow (POST 5) is the principal pace-collapse candidate.

Key Contenders

Winika (POST 1) is the preferred selection. The horse owns a competitive recent rating, has Juan Hernandez aboard, and draws the rail in a short turf field. Winika (POST 1) should either control the pace or sit directly behind Hey Lil Lady (POST 2), giving the horse multiple tactical options.

Hey Lil Lady (POST 2) is the morning-line favorite at 9-5. The post is excellent, and the horse should be prominent from the start. The concern is that Hey Lil Lady (POST 2) may have to work harder than expected if Winika (POST 1) refuses to concede the lead.

Secondary Choices

Princess Snow (POST 5) is the most attractive secondary horse. The recent rating is competitive, and the horse should benefit if the first three runners overdo the early pace. Princess Snow (POST 5) is preferable to Camila Catalina (POST 6) at comparable odds.

Camila Catalina (POST 6) has a useful recent rating and the services of Joel Rosario. The outside post is not a major problem in a six-horse field, but Camila Catalina (POST 6) must avoid being left too far behind.

Longshots

Empress Matilda (POST 3) is 3-1 and is more of a secondary contender than a true longshot. The horse has enough pace to remain involved but must prove capable of finishing with the top two.

Llamp (POST 4) is 15-1 and needs a substantial improvement. Llamp (POST 4) is best used only in the third or fourth slots of larger exotic tickets.

Selections

Win: Winika (POST 1)

Place: Princess Snow (POST 5)

Show: Hey Lil Lady (POST 2)

Winika (POST 1) is a useful anchor in the late Pick 5, but the race should not be treated as a completely automatic single because Hey Lil Lady (POST 2) owns a similar pace profile. Use Winika (POST 1), Hey Lil Lady (POST 2), and Princess Snow (POST 5) in exactas. Camila Catalina (POST 6) is a reasonable saver underneath.

RACE 6 — Post 6:30/5:30/4:30/(3:30) — 1760f | D | C | Clm 25000n2l | BUN | Purse $27,000

Pace Analysis

Hoosick Falls (POST 2) should be forwardly placed, with Hurricane Way (POST 6), Gairloch (POST 7), and Farmer Tom (POST 1) supplying the main opposition. Redial (POST 3) has the best raw recent rating and could be the strongest closer in the field.

The pace should be honest. A one-mile dirt race with several forward runners can set up for a horse capable of sustaining a move from the far turn, which points toward Redial (POST 3) and Gairloch (POST 7).

Key Contenders

Redial (POST 3) is the top win selection. The horse has the highest listed recent rating by a wide margin and draws a favorable central post. Redial (POST 3) should be able to track the pace without losing ground and begin the main move entering the second turn.

Hoosick Falls (POST 2) is the 7-5 favorite and remains a major threat. The inside post and Jeff Mullins-Kyle Frey combination make Hoosick Falls (POST 2) a logical contender, but the short price leaves little margin for a wide or premature move.

Secondary Choices

Gairloch (POST 7) is the most attractive alternative. Joel Rosario takes the mount, and the outside post gives Gairloch (POST 7) room to avoid traffic. The horse is particularly dangerous if the pace becomes contested.

Hurricane Way (POST 6) is another serious exacta candidate. Juan Hernandez can place Hurricane Way (POST 6) close to the leaders, but the horse must show greater finishing strength than the morning-line price suggests.

Longshots

Farmer Tom (POST 1) is 8-1 and has enough tactical speed to stay involved. The rail could help Farmer Tom (POST 1) save ground, although the horse needs to improve against the top three.

Mr. Tariff (POST 5), Nineteenth Hole (POST 4), and Maximum Gladiator (POST 8) are the longshots. Mr. Tariff (POST 5) is the most usable of the group because of the 15-1 price and potential pace advantage. Nineteenth Hole (POST 4) and Maximum Gladiator (POST 8) require major improvement.

Selections

Win: Redial (POST 3)

Place: Hoosick Falls (POST 2)

Show: Gairloch (POST 7)

Redial (POST 3) is the best value horse on the card if the market holds near the 7-2 morning line. Use Redial (POST 3) over Hoosick Falls (POST 2) and Gairloch (POST 7) in exactas. Hurricane Way (POST 6) and Farmer Tom (POST 1) can be added to trifecta tickets.

RACE 7 — Post 7:00/6:00/5:00/(4:00) — 1210f | D | M | Md 50000 | BUM | Purse $35,000

Pace Analysis

Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) has the strongest apparent speed, with Mustang Knicky (POST 5), Adia (POST 4), and Thirst For Faith (POST 8) likely to remain close. Imnotvanillasky (POST 3) should be able to stalk, while the inside runners may need to improve to stay involved.

The pace should be solid but manageable. Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) has the best chance to control the race without facing an unsustainable duel.

Key Contenders

Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) is the logical top choice. The horse has the best listed rating among the primary contenders and is the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) should obtain a stalking position outside the speed and have first run turning for home.

Mustang Knicky (POST 5) is the main danger at 3-1. The horse has enough speed to stay close, and the middle post is ideal. Mustang Knicky (POST 5) is particularly dangerous if Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) fails to secure the lead or is forced wide.

Secondary Choices

Adia (POST 4) is a useful 9-2 alternative. The horse owns a competitive recent rating and should get a clean trip in the middle of the field. Adia (POST 4) needs to produce a stronger finishing response, but the price is fair.

Thirst For Faith (POST 8) is a legitimate outside contender at 5-1. The post is wide, but the horse can avoid traffic and make one sustained move. Thirst For Faith (POST 8) becomes more attractive if the first two dirt races indicate that outside speed is holding.

Longshots

Imnotvanillasky (POST 3) is 6-1 and should be included in exactas. The horse has enough speed to sit in the right position, but the finish must improve.

Godbless Her (POST 7), Hayley Amber (POST 2), and Quick Sip (POST 1) are the longer-priced runners. Godbless Her (POST 7) is the most usable at 8-1, while Hayley Amber (POST 2) and Quick Sip (POST 1) need significant improvement.

Selections

Win: Queen Of Bantry (POST 6)

Place: Mustang Knicky (POST 5)

Show: Thirst For Faith (POST 8)

The best strategy is to use Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) and Mustang Knicky (POST 5) as the primary late Pick 3 horses. Exactas should emphasize Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) over Mustang Knicky (POST 5), Thirst For Faith (POST 8), and Adia (POST 4). Godbless Her (POST 7) is the preferred price horse for trifecta purposes.

RACE 8 — Post 7:30/6:30/5:30/(4:30) — 1320f | D | C | Clm 8000 | BUM | Purse $18,000

Pace Analysis

Miz Clubcali (POST 4) should be prominent, with Harney Lane (POST 7), Chasing Kat (POST 6), and Giant Kid (POST 9) providing the principal pace pressure. Rythem Girl (POST 8) may be the best late-running alternative.

The pace is likely to be honest, which gives Miz Clubcali (POST 4) a tactical advantage if the horse can secure position without engaging in a prolonged duel.

Key Contenders

Miz Clubcali (POST 4) is the 9-5 favorite and the top selection. The central post is favorable, and the horse should be able to track the pace rather than become trapped behind slower runners. Miz Clubcali (POST 4) is the most likely winner, but the short price makes the exacta more appealing than a win wager.

Harney Lane (POST 7) is the principal challenger at 3-1. The horse has a good recent rating and should be in the first flight. Harney Lane (POST 7) is dangerous if the favorite is forced into a premature move.

Secondary Choices

Rythem Girl (POST 8) is an interesting 10-1 horse. The recent rating is competitive, and the outside post could allow Rythem Girl (POST 8) to avoid traffic. This is the preferred value horse in the race.

Chasing Kat (POST 6) is 6-1 and can finish underneath. The horse needs a better late response than the recent rating suggests, but the pace setup is not unfavorable.

Longshots

Buds N Suds (POST 2) and Roman Empress (POST 5) are both 10-1 or higher. Buds N Suds (POST 2) benefits from the inside draw, while Roman Empress (POST 5) is more dependent on a pace collapse.

Alix (POST 1) and Cheeky Gal (POST 3) are the remaining outsiders. Alix (POST 1) has the better trip profile of the two, while Cheeky Gal (POST 3) needs a marked form improvement. Giant Kid (POST 9) is a 6-1 contender with speed but may be compromised by the outside post.

Selections

Win: Miz Clubcali (POST 4)

Place: Rythem Girl (POST 8)

Show: Harney Lane (POST 7)

The value wager is Rythem Girl (POST 8) to place or show and in exactas with Miz Clubcali (POST 4). Use Miz Clubcali (POST 4) and Harney Lane (POST 7) on top, with Rythem Girl (POST 8), Chasing Kat (POST 6), and Giant Kid (POST 9) underneath. Because this is the final leg of the late double, avoid singling Miz Clubcali (POST 4) in every ticket.

RACE 9 — Post 8:00/7:00/6:00/(5:00) — 1430f | T | C | Clm 25000n1y | BUM | Purse $35,000

Pace Analysis

Danzingwith Maxine (POST 5) and Issa Court (POST 6) should be forwardly placed. Five O Cocktail (POST 7) can press from the outside, while Saariselka (POST 2) and Oveta's Hobby (POST 1) are more likely to settle and make one run. Tavolara (POST 4) is the intriguing closer if the race develops an honest pace.

The pace should be more demanding than the morning line may indicate because the two shortest-priced horses have similar forward profiles. That could produce an opportunity for a closer at a double-digit price.

Key Contenders

Tavolara (POST 4) is the preferred value selection. The horse is listed at 12-1, but the central post is favorable and the projected pace should give Tavolara (POST 4) a chance to make one sustained move. The horse does not need to be sent early and can wait for the leaders to soften.

Issa Court (POST 6) is the morning-line favorite at 7-5 and remains the most likely winner on paper. Joel Rosario is a strong fit, and Issa Court (POST 6) has a competitive recent rating. The concern is that the horse may have to do the dirty work while Danzingwith Maxine (POST 5) applies pressure.

Secondary Choices

Danzingwith Maxine (POST 5) is the most important alternative. The horse has tactical speed and should receive an ideal stalking trip. Danzingwith Maxine (POST 5) is more attractive if the pace is slower than expected, but the 2-1 morning line leaves limited value.

Saariselka (POST 2) is a major underneath threat at 12-1. The horse owns one of the strongest listed recent ratings in the field and draws an advantageous inside post. Saariselka (POST 2) is a particularly appealing exacta and trifecta horse.

Longshots

Oveta's Hobby (POST 1) is 8-1 and can benefit from saving ground. The horse needs a clean stretch run, but the inside post makes Oveta's Hobby (POST 1) usable.

Lady Maryann (POST 3) is 15-1 and requires improvement. Five O Cocktail (POST 7) is 6-1 and has enough speed to remain involved, although the outside post may force a wide trip. Strange Addiction (POST 8) is 20-1 and is the least likely winner, but the horse can be included in the bottom of a superfecta.

Cameron Slough (POST 9) is listed as an also-eligible rather than a confirmed starter. If Cameron Slough (POST 9) draws in, the horse should be considered for the lower rungs because the recent rating is competitive, but the outside post would make the trip difficult.

Selections

Win: Tavolara (POST 4)

Place: Issa Court (POST 6)

Show: Saariselka (POST 2)

Tavolara (POST 4) is the strongest value play on the card if the horse starts and remains near 10-1 or higher. Use Tavolara (POST 4), Issa Court (POST 6), and Danzingwith Maxine (POST 5) in exactas. Saariselka (POST 2), Oveta's Hobby (POST 1), and Five O Cocktail (POST 7) should be included in trifecta tickets. The available published analysis also identified Tavolara (POST 4) as the best bet of the card.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Joel Rosario has mounts on Mighty Toro (POST 2), Big Time Coach (POST 2), Mio Bambino (POST 4), Camila Catalina (POST 6), Gairloch (POST 7), Buds N Suds (POST 2), and Issa Court (POST 6). His most favorable assignments appear to be Mighty Toro (POST 2), Mio Bambino (POST 4), Gairloch (POST 7), and Issa Court (POST 6). Rosario is especially valuable on horses needing patient positioning in turf routes and one-mile dirt races.

Juan Hernandez rides Burning Rubber (POST 3), Winika (POST 1), and Hurricane Way (POST 6). Hernandez's mounts are all prominent contenders, and his position in the meet standings makes this a particularly important card for him.

Kazushi Kimura rides Corkscrew Andy (POST 1), Twilight Time (POST 3), Five O Cocktail (POST 7), and Strange Addiction (POST 8). Corkscrew Andy (POST 1) and Twilight Time (POST 3) are his best opportunities, while Five O Cocktail (POST 7) is a useful pace-oriented horse.

Emisael Jaramillo rides Sammy Davis (POST 2), Oveta's Hobby (POST 1), and Giant Kid (POST 9). Sammy Davis (POST 2) is the best of the group on pace and post position, while Oveta's Hobby (POST 1) and Giant Kid (POST 9) are primarily exotic candidates.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jeff Mullins sends out Amador (POST 7), Winika (POST 1), and Hoosick Falls (POST 2). This is one of the strongest trainer groups on the card. Amador (POST 7) and Winika (POST 1) are preferred as value horses, while Hoosick Falls (POST 2) is a logical but short-priced favorite.

John Sadler has Mighty Toro (POST 2) and Sammy Davis (POST 2). Mighty Toro (POST 2) has the most obvious winning profile, while Sammy Davis (POST 2) is a useful exacta alternative in Race 3.

Ian Kruljac has Johnny B (POST 3), Redial (POST 3), and Miz Clubcali (POST 4). Johnny B (POST 3) and Redial (POST 3) are the more attractive win candidates because their speed and pace profiles fit their races. Miz Clubcali (POST 4) is reliable but offers less value at the morning-line price.

Robert Hess Jr. has Fausto (POST 4), Camila Catalina (POST 6), Issa Court (POST 6), and Alix (POST 1). Fausto (POST 4) and Camila Catalina (POST 6) are the best price-sensitive horses from the group, while Issa Court (POST 6) is the principal favorite.

The leading trainer angles are centered on class placement and trip rather than obvious equipment or workout changes. No current workout report, equipment change, or trainer-statistic sheet was available in the current race-day material.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The best straight win value is Redial (POST 3) in Race 6 if the horse holds near the 7-2 morning line. The highest-upside price horse is Tavolara (POST 4) in Race 9 at 12-1. Fausto (POST 4) in Race 1, Amador (POST 7) in Race 4, Princess Snow (POST 5) in Race 5, and Rythem Girl (POST 8) in Race 8 are the other preferred value runners.

The most likely single is Burning Rubber (POST 3) in Race 3, although the price may be short. Queen Of Bantry (POST 6) is a reasonable late Pick 3 anchor, but the presence of Mustang Knicky (POST 5) and Thirst For Faith (POST 8) makes a spread preferable in larger wagers.

A practical early Pick 5 structure is:

Race 1: Mighty Toro (POST 2), Fausto (POST 4)

Race 2: Johnny B (POST 3), Big Time Coach (POST 2)

Race 3: Burning Rubber (POST 3), Mio Bambino (POST 4), Sammy Davis (POST 2)

Race 4: Amador (POST 7), Hankering (POST 8), Twilight Time (POST 3)

Race 5: Winika (POST 1), Hey Lil Lady (POST 2), Princess Snow (POST 5)

A more aggressive late Pick 5 structure is:

Race 5: Winika (POST 1), Hey Lil Lady (POST 2), Princess Snow (POST 5)

Race 6: Redial (POST 3), Hoosick Falls (POST 2), Gairloch (POST 7)

Race 7: Queen Of Bantry (POST 6), Mustang Knicky (POST 5), Thirst For Faith (POST 8)

Race 8: Miz Clubcali (POST 4), Harney Lane (POST 7), Rythem Girl (POST 8)

Race 9: Tavolara (POST 4), Issa Court (POST 6), Danzingwith Maxine (POST 5), Saariselka (POST 2)

The most efficient exacta strategy is to key Redial (POST 3) over Hoosick Falls (POST 2), Gairloch (POST 7), and Hurricane Way (POST 6) in Race 6. In Race 9, use Tavolara (POST 4) and Issa Court (POST 6) on top of Danzingwith Maxine (POST 5), Saariselka (POST 2), and Oveta's Hobby (POST 1).

The strongest overall card opinion is to oppose short prices when a comparable alternative offers value. Mighty Toro (POST 2), Hankering (POST 8), Hoosick Falls (POST 2), and Miz Clubcali (POST 4) are legitimate favorites, but their prices are vulnerable to modest trip trouble. The preferred approach is to use those horses defensively in multi-race wagers while concentrating straight win money on Fausto (POST 4), Redial (POST 3), and Tavolara (POST 4).

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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