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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Keeneland Race Course, October 31, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Keeneland Race Course — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 127 graded races at Keeneland Race Course, 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-24.

0%10%20%30%40%Our top pick: 32.3% from 127 racesOur top pick32.3%Morning-line favourite: 28.3% from 127 racesMorning-line favourite28.3%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick32.3%127
Morning-line favourite28.3%127
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Powerline (8/5)
Place:6You Want Some (12/1)
Show:11Overtime Bonus (12/1)
Other contenders:4Knicks Diamonds (10/1), 2Highwaymen (6/1), 8Supreme Commander (5/1), 9Mahogany Dream (20/1)
Rest of field:12Shock Value (12/1), 7Bourbon Neat (8/1), 1Candor (20/1), 3Tacamo (30/1), 10Baytown Thracian (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5284611
🎯 Longshots: 561198247121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #11, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Right In Time (5/2)
Place:4Harmoniously (5/1)
Show:5Virabhadrasana (7/2)
Other contenders:6She's Toasty (9/2), 8Don't Tell Mom (6/1), 3Master Queen (8/1)
Rest of field:1Betty Sue (15/1), 2Girls Wear Pearls (12/1), 7Fizzypopberrytwist (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 956483
🎯 Longshots: 964583217
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $185,000
Win:11Saudi Crown (5/2)
Place:1Booth (4/1)
Show:5Extra Anejo (8/1)
Other contenders:2Steeze (8/1), 8Tennessee Lamb (12/1), 10Floodlites (12/1), 9Sir Greylind (8/1)
Rest of field:4Lips Say Bliss (15/1), 6Will Take It (12/1), 7Durante (20/1), 12Here Mi Song (15/1), 13Henro (20/1), 3Jimmy Rules (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1115289
🎯 Longshots: 11185210691274313
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:2Ways And Means (7/5)
Place:11Explora (4/1)
Show:4R Disaster (8/1)
Other contenders:12Kilwin (8/1), 9Sweet Azteca (8/1), 7Evanescence (15/1), 1Look Forward (20/1)
Rest of field:6Majestic Oops (15/1), 8Kerry's Kiss (20/1), 5Foie Gras (20/1), 10Simply Joking (30/1), 13Nooni (30/1), 3Praying (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21141297
🎯 Longshots: 24129116718531310
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #4, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:3Bacio (5/2)
Place:10Cy Fair (8/1)
Show:6Yellow Card (8/1)
Other contenders:2Shisospicy (15/1), 7Comanche Brave (3/1), 11Joe Shiesty (10/1), 12Sorrento Sky (12/1), 9In Our Time (20/1)
Rest of field:8Possiblemente (12/1), 16No Nay Hudson (15/1), 17Doncho (20/1), 1John The Beer Man (30/1), 4Roja (30/1), 5Time To Dazzle (20/1), 18Outfielder (30/1), 13Starlust (20/1), 15Big Mojo (20/1), 14Miss Yechance (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31076112
🎯 Longshots: 121063811721816179154141315
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Further Ado (2/1)
Place:7Bracket Buster (7/2)
Show:5Coal Battle (6/1)
Other contenders:10Owen Almighty (10/1), 4Chunk Of Gold (8/1), 3Full Serrano (10/1), 9Forged Steel (15/1)
Rest of field:2T Kraft (15/1), 8Moonlight (15/1), 11Iron Man Cal (12/1), 6Lord Fons (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1751043
🎯 Longshots: 1102793485116
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #5, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 3/16 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Kathynmarissa (5/1)
Place:14Stellify (12/1)
Show:1Gimme A Nother (10/1)
Other contenders:6Thought Process (15/1), 12Blue Bolt (5/2), 13Lush Lips (12/1), 11Precise (7/2)
Rest of field:10Expensive Queen (15/1), 3Classic Q (20/1), 8Jancis (20/1), 7Bless The Broken (20/1), 2Evershed (30/1), 4Red Letter (12/1), 9Eccentric (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 514121116
🎯 Longshots: 1145128613104117329
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #14, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:13Englishman (4/5)
Place:11T O Elvis (7/2)
Show:7Built (10/1)
Other contenders:5Listenupshance (12/1), 9Nakatomi (12/1), 4Hymn (15/1), 12Stradale (20/1)
Rest of field:3Liam Smith (20/1), 1Mad House (30/1), 10Roll On Big Joe (30/1), 8Little Thunder (30/1), 6American Stage (30/1), 2Dark Saffron (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13117594
🎯 Longshots: 13511791243181026
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #11, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Notable Speech (7/5)
Place:1Deterministic (8/1)
Show:2Lake Forest (6/1)
Other contenders:9Rhetorical (8/1), 6Zulu Kingdom (15/1), 11Formidable Man (15/1), 3Facteur Cheval (30/1), 13Brilliant Berti (30/1)
Rest of field:12True Love (8/1), 15Vina Arana (30/1), 15Vina Arana (30/1), 4Cabo Spirit (30/1), 14Puerto Rico (10/1), 5Ask Ikigomi (20/1), 7Qirat (30/1), 10Lugal (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8219611
🎯 Longshots: 81691221151415157133410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Nitrogen (6/5)
Place:4Fully Subscribed (8/5)
Show:8Splendora (9/2)
Other contenders:5Scottish Lassie (15/1), 7Super Corredora (15/1), 3Regaled (20/1)
Rest of field:6Measure (20/1), 1Immersive (30/1), 9Eunomia (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 248573
🎯 Longshots: 482769531
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1 1/2 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $5,000,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Burnham Square (8/1)
Place:1Ethical Diamond (10/1)
Show:10Tiffany (10/1)
Other contenders:12Diamond Necklace (3/1), 3Minaret Station (15/1), 5El Cordobes (15/1), 4Far Bridge (20/1), 11Survie (15/1)
Rest of field:8Test Score (30/1), 13Bay City Roller (5/1), 2Benvenuto Cellini (6/1), 16Telescopic (30/1), 7Hotazhell (15/1), 9Johanna Walsh (12/1), 15Map Of Stars (20/1), 14Deep Monster (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 61211035
🎯 Longshots: 16121093784521513111614
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #10, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 12  1 1/4 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $7,000,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Forever Young (2/1)
Place:2Sovereignty (5/2)
Show:3Golden Tempo (5/1)
Other contenders:6Magnitude (6/1), 7Knightsbridge (9/2), 4The Puma (10/1)
Rest of field:8Napoleon Solo (15/1), 1T O Password (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 523764
🎯 Longshots: 23857461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Keeneland Race Course — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 126 graded races at Keeneland Race Course, 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-24.

0%11%22%33%44%Our top pick: 34.9% from 126 racesOur top pick34.9%Morning-line favourite: 27.8% from 126 racesMorning-line favourite27.8%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick34.9%126
Morning-line favourite27.8%126
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
Win:5Powerline (8/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -50%
Place:6You Want Some (12/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +97%
Show:4Knicks Diamonds (10/1) 13% · fair 7-1 overlay +48%
Other contenders:11Overtime Bonus (12/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +45%, 12Shock Value (12/1) 10% · fair 9-1 overlay +37%, 2Highwaymen (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 8Supreme Commander (5/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -62%
Rest of field:9Mahogany Dream (20/1) 6% · fair 29-2 overlay +38%, 7Bourbon Neat (8/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -62%, 1Candor (20/1) 1% · fair 77-1 underlay -74%, 3Tacamo (30/1) 1% · fair 201-2 underlay -70%, 10Baytown Thracian (30/1) 0% · fair 989-2 underlay -94%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Powerline — 23.6% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Powerline23.6% ◀You Want Some — 14.1% win probability, morning line 12/1You Want Some14.1%Knicks Diamonds — 12.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Knicks Diamonds12.9%Overtime Bonus — 10.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Overtime Bonus10.8%Shock Value — 10.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Shock Value10.2%Highwaymen — 7.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Highwaymen7.7%Supreme Commander — 7.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Supreme Commander7.1%Mahogany Dream — 6.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Mahogany Dream6.4%Bourbon Neat — 4.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Bourbon Neat4.6%Candor — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Candor1.3%Tacamo — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Tacamo1.0%Baytown Thracian — 0.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Baytown Thracian0.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Powerline23.6%1.6/1
You Want Some14.1%12/1
Knicks Diamonds12.9%10/1
Overtime Bonus10.8%12/1
Shock Value10.2%12/1
Highwaymen7.7%6/1
Supreme Commander7.1%5/1
Mahogany Dream6.4%20/1
Bourbon Neat4.6%8/1
Candor1.3%20/1
Tacamo1.0%30/1
Baytown Thracian0.2%30/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPowerline: model 23.6% vs market 29.9% (-6.3 points)Powerline-6.3You Want Some: model 14.1% vs market 6.0% (+8.1 points)You Want Some+8.1Knicks Diamonds: model 12.9% vs market 7.1% (+5.8 points)Knicks Diamonds+5.8Overtime Bonus: model 10.8% vs market 6.0% (+4.8 points)Overtime Bonus+4.8Shock Value: model 10.2% vs market 6.0% (+4.3 points)Shock Value+4.3Highwaymen: model 7.7% vs market 11.1% (-3.4 points)Highwaymen-3.4Supreme Commander: model 7.1% vs market 13.0% (-5.8 points)Supreme Commander-5.8Mahogany Dream: model 6.4% vs market 3.7% (+2.7 points)Mahogany Dream+2.7Bourbon Neat: model 4.6% vs market 8.6% (-4.0 points)Bourbon Neat-4.0Candor: model 1.3% vs market 3.7% (-2.4 points)Candor-2.4Tacamo: model 1.0% vs market 2.5% (-1.5 points)Tacamo-1.5Baytown Thracian: model 0.2% vs market 2.5% (-2.3 points)Baytown Thracian-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Powerline23.6%29.9%-6.3
You Want Some14.1%6.0%+8.1
Knicks Diamonds12.9%7.1%+5.8
Overtime Bonus10.8%6.0%+4.8
Shock Value10.2%6.0%+4.3
Highwaymen7.7%11.1%-3.4
Supreme Commander7.1%13.0%-5.8
Mahogany Dream6.4%3.7%+2.7
Bourbon Neat4.6%8.6%-4.0
Candor1.3%3.7%-2.4
Tacamo1.0%2.5%-1.5
Baytown Thracian0.2%2.5%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 5824611
🎯 Longshots: 561198247121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #4, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:9Right In Time (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -37%
Place:8Don't Tell Mom (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:6She's Toasty (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:4Harmoniously (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1, 5Virabhadrasana (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -45%, 3Master Queen (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%
Rest of field:1Betty Sue (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 2Girls Wear Pearls (12/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -43%, 7Fizzypopberrytwist (30/1) 1% · fair 295-2 underlay -80%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Right In Time — 20.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Right In Time20.1% ◀Don'T Tell Mom — 16.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Don'T Tell Mom16.6%She'S Toasty — 16.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1She'S Toasty16.4%Harmoniously — 16.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Harmoniously16.3%Virabhadrasana — 13.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Virabhadrasana13.5%Master Queen — 6.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Master Queen6.7%Betty Sue — 5.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Betty Sue5.4%Girls Wear Pearls — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Girls Wear Pearls4.5%Fizzypopberrytwist — 0.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Fizzypopberrytwist0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Right In Time20.1%2.5/1
Don'T Tell Mom16.6%6/1
She'S Toasty16.4%4.5/1
Harmoniously16.3%5/1
Virabhadrasana13.5%3.5/1
Master Queen6.7%8/1
Betty Sue5.4%15/1
Girls Wear Pearls4.5%12/1
Fizzypopberrytwist0.7%30/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRight In Time: model 20.1% vs market 22.3% (-2.2 points)Right In Time-2.2Don'T Tell Mom: model 16.6% vs market 11.1% (+5.4 points)Don'T Tell Mom+5.4She'S Toasty: model 16.4% vs market 14.2% (+2.2 points)She'S Toasty+2.2Harmoniously: model 16.3% vs market 13.0% (+3.3 points)Harmoniously+3.3Virabhadrasana: model 13.5% vs market 17.3% (-3.9 points)Virabhadrasana-3.9Master Queen: model 6.7% vs market 8.7% (-2.0 points)Master Queen-2.0Betty Sue: model 5.4% vs market 4.9% (+0.5 points)Betty Sue+0.5Girls Wear Pearls: model 4.5% vs market 6.0% (-1.5 points)Girls Wear Pearls-1.5Fizzypopberrytwist: model 0.7% vs market 2.5% (-1.8 points)Fizzypopberrytwist-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Right In Time20.1%22.3%-2.2
Don'T Tell Mom16.6%11.1%+5.4
She'S Toasty16.4%14.2%+2.2
Harmoniously16.3%13.0%+3.3
Virabhadrasana13.5%17.3%-3.9
Master Queen6.7%8.7%-2.0
Betty Sue5.4%4.9%+0.5
Girls Wear Pearls4.5%6.0%-1.5
Fizzypopberrytwist0.7%2.5%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 965483
🎯 Longshots: 964583217
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #8, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $185,000
Win:11Saudi Crown (5/2) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:1Booth (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%
Show:2Steeze (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%
Other contenders:10Floodlites (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 8Tennessee Lamb (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 9Sir Greylind (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -44%, 5Extra Anejo (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49%
Rest of field:6Will Take It (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -45%, 12Here Mi Song (15/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -42%, 4Lips Say Bliss (15/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -45%, 7Durante (20/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -32%, 13Henro (20/1) 2% · fair 45-1 underlay -56%, 3Jimmy Rules (30/1) 2% · fair 65-1 underlay -54%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Saudi Crown — 32.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Saudi Crown32.9% ◀Booth — 15.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Booth15.0%Steeze — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Steeze7.3%Floodlites — 6.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Floodlites6.7%Tennessee Lamb — 6.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Tennessee Lamb6.7%Sir Greylind — 6.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Sir Greylind6.6%Extra Anejo — 6.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Extra Anejo6.0%Will Take It — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Will Take It4.4%Here Mi Song — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Here Mi Song3.7%Lips Say Bliss — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Lips Say Bliss3.5%Durante — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Durante3.3%Henro — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Henro2.2%Jimmy Rules — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Jimmy Rules1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Saudi Crown32.9%2.5/1
Booth15.0%4/1
Steeze7.3%8/1
Floodlites6.7%12/1
Tennessee Lamb6.7%12/1
Sir Greylind6.6%8/1
Extra Anejo6.0%8/1
Will Take It4.4%12/1
Here Mi Song3.7%15/1
Lips Say Bliss3.5%15/1
Durante3.3%20/1
Henro2.2%20/1
Jimmy Rules1.5%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSaudi Crown: model 32.9% vs market 21.9% (+11.0 points)Saudi Crown+11.0Booth: model 15.0% vs market 15.4% (-0.3 points)Booth-0.3Steeze: model 7.3% vs market 8.5% (-1.2 points)Steeze-1.2Floodlites: model 6.7% vs market 5.9% (+0.8 points)Floodlites+0.8Tennessee Lamb: model 6.7% vs market 5.9% (+0.8 points)Tennessee Lamb+0.8Sir Greylind: model 6.6% vs market 8.5% (-2.0 points)Sir Greylind-2.0Extra Anejo: model 6.0% vs market 8.5% (-2.5 points)Extra Anejo-2.5Will Take It: model 4.4% vs market 5.9% (-1.5 points)Will Take It-1.5Here Mi Song: model 3.7% vs market 4.8% (-1.1 points)Here Mi Song-1.1Lips Say Bliss: model 3.5% vs market 4.8% (-1.3 points)Lips Say Bliss-1.3Durante: model 3.3% vs market 3.7% (-0.4 points)Durante-0.4Henro: model 2.2% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Henro-1.5Jimmy Rules: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)Jimmy Rules-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Saudi Crown32.9%21.9%+11.0
Booth15.0%15.4%-0.3
Steeze7.3%8.5%-1.2
Floodlites6.7%5.9%+0.8
Tennessee Lamb6.7%5.9%+0.8
Sir Greylind6.6%8.5%-2.0
Extra Anejo6.0%8.5%-2.5
Will Take It4.4%5.9%-1.5
Here Mi Song3.7%4.8%-1.1
Lips Say Bliss3.5%4.8%-1.3
Durante3.3%3.7%-0.4
Henro2.2%3.7%-1.5
Jimmy Rules1.5%2.5%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 11129510
🎯 Longshots: 11185210691274313
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:2Ways And Means (7/5) 34% · fair 2-1 underlay -27%
Place:11Explora (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -31%
Show:12Kilwin (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:9Sweet Azteca (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -32%, 4R Disaster (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -39%, 6Majestic Oops (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 7Evanescence (15/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -34%
Rest of field:1Look Forward (20/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -30%, 5Foie Gras (20/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -36%, 8Kerry's Kiss (20/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -45%, 10Simply Joking (30/1) 3% · fair 77-2, 13Nooni (30/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -41%, 3Praying (30/1) 1% · fair 67-1 underlay -55%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ways And Means — 34.4% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Ways And Means34.4% ◀Explora — 14.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Explora14.7%Kilwin — 11.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Kilwin11.2%Sweet Azteca — 7.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Sweet Azteca7.9%R Disaster — 7.1% win probability, morning line 8/1R Disaster7.1%Majestic Oops — 5.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Majestic Oops5.4%Evanescence — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Evanescence4.2%Look Forward — 3.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Look Forward3.4%Foie Gras — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Foie Gras3.1%Kerry'S Kiss — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Kerry'S Kiss2.7%Simply Joking — 2.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Simply Joking2.5%Nooni — 1.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Nooni1.9%Praying — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Praying1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ways And Means34.4%1.4/1
Explora14.7%4/1
Kilwin11.2%8/1
Sweet Azteca7.9%8/1
R Disaster7.1%8/1
Majestic Oops5.4%15/1
Evanescence4.2%15/1
Look Forward3.4%20/1
Foie Gras3.1%20/1
Kerry'S Kiss2.7%20/1
Simply Joking2.5%30/1
Nooni1.9%30/1
Praying1.5%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 21112946
🎯 Longshots: 24129116718531310
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #12, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:10Cy Fair (8/1) 19% · fair 9-2 overlay +88%
Place:6Yellow Card (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Show:11Joe Shiesty (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Other contenders:12Sorrento Sky (12/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 9In Our Time (20/1) 7% · fair 25-2 overlay +62%, 2Shisospicy (15/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 8Possiblemente (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 16No Nay Hudson (15/1) 7% · fair 27-2
Rest of field:3Bacio (5/2) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -90%, 4Roja (30/1) 4% · fair 53-2, 17Doncho (20/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -29%, 1John The Beer Man (30/1) 3% · fair 65-2, 7Comanche Brave (3/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -91%, 18Outfielder (30/1) 3% · fair 38-1, 5Time To Dazzle (20/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -50%, 13Starlust (20/1) 0% · fair 735-2 underlay -95%, 15Big Mojo (20/1) 0% · fair 647-1 underlay -97%, 14Miss Yechance (15/1) 0% · fair 2549-2 underlay -99%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cy Fair — 19.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Cy Fair19.0% ◀Yellow Card — 11.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Yellow Card11.7%Joe Shiesty — 9.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Joe Shiesty9.2%Sorrento Sky — 8.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Sorrento Sky8.9%In Our Time — 7.5% win probability, morning line 20/1In Our Time7.5%Shisospicy — 7.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Shisospicy7.4%Possiblemente — 7.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Possiblemente7.3%No Nay Hudson — 6.8% win probability, morning line 15/1No Nay Hudson6.8%Bacio — 3.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Bacio3.8%Roja — 3.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Roja3.6%Doncho — 3.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Doncho3.4%John The Beer Man — 3.0% win probability, morning line 30/1John The Beer Man3.0%Comanche Brave — 2.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Comanche Brave2.8%Outfielder — 2.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Outfielder2.6%Time To Dazzle — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Time To Dazzle2.4%Starlust — 0.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Starlust0.3%Big Mojo — 0.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Big Mojo0.2%Miss Yechance — 0.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Miss Yechance0.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cy Fair19.0%8/1
Yellow Card11.7%8/1
Joe Shiesty9.2%10/1
Sorrento Sky8.9%12/1
In Our Time7.5%20/1
Shisospicy7.4%15/1
Possiblemente7.3%12/1
No Nay Hudson6.8%15/1
Bacio3.8%2.5/1
Roja3.6%30/1
Doncho3.4%20/1
John The Beer Man3.0%30/1
Comanche Brave2.8%3/1
Outfielder2.6%30/1
Time To Dazzle2.4%20/1
Starlust0.3%20/1
Big Mojo0.2%20/1
Miss Yechance0.1%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCy Fair: model 19.0% vs market 7.3% (+11.7 points)Cy Fair+11.7Yellow Card: model 11.7% vs market 7.3% (+4.4 points)Yellow Card+4.4Joe Shiesty: model 9.2% vs market 6.0% (+3.3 points)Joe Shiesty+3.3Sorrento Sky: model 8.9% vs market 5.0% (+3.9 points)Sorrento Sky+3.9In Our Time: model 7.5% vs market 3.1% (+4.4 points)In Our Time+4.4Shisospicy: model 7.4% vs market 4.1% (+3.3 points)Shisospicy+3.3Possiblemente: model 7.3% vs market 5.0% (+2.3 points)Possiblemente+2.3No Nay Hudson: model 6.8% vs market 4.1% (+2.7 points)No Nay Hudson+2.7Bacio: model 3.8% vs market 18.7% (-15.0 points)Bacio-15.0Roja: model 3.6% vs market 2.1% (+1.5 points)Roja+1.5Doncho: model 3.4% vs market 3.1% (+0.3 points)Doncho+0.3John The Beer Man: model 3.0% vs market 2.1% (+0.9 points)John The Beer Man+0.9Comanche Brave: model 2.8% vs market 16.4% (-13.6 points)Comanche Brave-13.6Outfielder: model 2.6% vs market 2.1% (+0.4 points)Outfielder+0.4Time To Dazzle: model 2.4% vs market 3.1% (-0.7 points)Time To Dazzle-0.7Starlust: model 0.3% vs market 3.1% (-2.9 points)Starlust-2.9Big Mojo: model 0.2% vs market 3.1% (-3.0 points)Big Mojo-3.0Miss Yechance: model 0.1% vs market 4.1% (-4.0 points)Miss Yechance-4.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cy Fair19.0%7.3%+11.7
Yellow Card11.7%7.3%+4.4
Joe Shiesty9.2%6.0%+3.3
Sorrento Sky8.9%5.0%+3.9
In Our Time7.5%3.1%+4.4
Shisospicy7.4%4.1%+3.3
Possiblemente7.3%5.0%+2.3
No Nay Hudson6.8%4.1%+2.7
Bacio3.8%18.7%-15.0
Roja3.6%2.1%+1.5
Doncho3.4%3.1%+0.3
John The Beer Man3.0%2.1%+0.9
Comanche Brave2.8%16.4%-13.6
Outfielder2.6%2.1%+0.4
Time To Dazzle2.4%3.1%-0.7
Starlust0.3%3.1%-2.9
Big Mojo0.2%3.1%-3.0
Miss Yechance0.1%4.1%-4.0
🌧️ Off-track: 103671112
🎯 Longshots: 121063811721816179154141315
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #11, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:1Further Ado (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -25%
Place:7Bracket Buster (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:10Owen Almighty (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Other contenders:5Coal Battle (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -45%, 4Chunk Of Gold (8/1) 8% · fair 25-2 underlay -35%, 9Forged Steel (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 8Moonlight (15/1) 5% · fair 37-2
Rest of field:2T Kraft (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 3Full Serrano (10/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -50%, 11Iron Man Cal (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -40%, 6Lord Fons (15/1) 0% · fair 785-2 underlay -96%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Further Ado — 27.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Further Ado27.1% ◀Bracket Buster — 21.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Bracket Buster21.7%Owen Almighty — 10.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Owen Almighty10.1%Coal Battle — 8.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Coal Battle8.4%Chunk Of Gold — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Chunk Of Gold7.5%Forged Steel — 5.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Forged Steel5.6%Moonlight — 5.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Moonlight5.1%T Kraft — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1T Kraft4.8%Full Serrano — 4.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Full Serrano4.7%Iron Man Cal — 4.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Iron Man Cal4.7%Lord Fons — 0.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Lord Fons0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Further Ado27.1%2/1
Bracket Buster21.7%3.5/1
Owen Almighty10.1%10/1
Coal Battle8.4%6/1
Chunk Of Gold7.5%8/1
Forged Steel5.6%15/1
Moonlight5.1%15/1
T Kraft4.8%15/1
Full Serrano4.7%10/1
Iron Man Cal4.7%12/1
Lord Fons0.3%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFurther Ado: model 27.1% vs market 25.3% (+1.9 points)Further Ado+1.9Bracket Buster: model 21.7% vs market 16.9% (+4.8 points)Bracket Buster+4.8Owen Almighty: model 10.1% vs market 6.9% (+3.2 points)Owen Almighty+3.2Coal Battle: model 8.4% vs market 10.8% (-2.5 points)Coal Battle-2.5Chunk Of Gold: model 7.5% vs market 8.4% (-0.9 points)Chunk Of Gold-0.9Forged Steel: model 5.6% vs market 4.7% (+0.8 points)Forged Steel+0.8Moonlight: model 5.1% vs market 4.7% (+0.3 points)Moonlight+0.3T Kraft: model 4.8% vs market 4.7% (+0.1 points)T Kraft+0.1Full Serrano: model 4.7% vs market 6.9% (-2.2 points)Full Serrano-2.2Iron Man Cal: model 4.7% vs market 5.8% (-1.1 points)Iron Man Cal-1.1Lord Fons: model 0.3% vs market 4.7% (-4.5 points)Lord Fons-4.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Further Ado27.1%25.3%+1.9
Bracket Buster21.7%16.9%+4.8
Owen Almighty10.1%6.9%+3.2
Coal Battle8.4%10.8%-2.5
Chunk Of Gold7.5%8.4%-0.9
Forged Steel5.6%4.7%+0.8
Moonlight5.1%4.7%+0.3
T Kraft4.8%4.7%+0.1
Full Serrano4.7%6.9%-2.2
Iron Man Cal4.7%5.8%-1.1
Lord Fons0.3%4.7%-4.5
🌧️ Off-track: 1754103
🎯 Longshots: 1102793485116
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #10, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 3/16 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:14Stellify (12/1) 27% · fair 3-1 overlay +335%
Place:5Kathynmarissa (5/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +31%
Show:1Gimme A Nother (10/1) 13% · fair 13-2 overlay +54%
Other contenders:6Thought Process (15/1) 11% · fair 17-2 overlay +78%, 13Lush Lips (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 11Precise (7/2) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -82%, 10Expensive Queen (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30%
Rest of field:7Bless The Broken (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -32%, 3Classic Q (20/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -33%, 12Blue Bolt (5/2) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -94%, 8Jancis (20/1) 2% · fair 45-1 underlay -55%, 2Evershed (30/1) 2% · fair 123-2 underlay -51%, 9Eccentric (30/1) 0% · fair 1069-2 underlay -94%, 4Red Letter (12/1) 0% · fair 2683-2 underlay -99%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Stellify — 26.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Stellify26.6% ◀Kathynmarissa — 20.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Kathynmarissa20.8%Gimme A Nother — 13.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Gimme A Nother13.3%Thought Process — 10.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Thought Process10.6%Lush Lips — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Lush Lips6.2%Precise — 5.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Precise5.0%Expensive Queen — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Expensive Queen4.5%Bless The Broken — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Bless The Broken3.3%Classic Q — 3.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Classic Q3.2%Blue Bolt — 2.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Blue Bolt2.5%Jancis — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Jancis2.2%Evershed — 1.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Evershed1.6%Eccentric — 0.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Eccentric0.2%Red Letter — 0.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Red Letter0.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Stellify26.6%12/1
Kathynmarissa20.8%5/1
Gimme A Nother13.3%10/1
Thought Process10.6%15/1
Lush Lips6.2%12/1
Precise5.0%3.5/1
Expensive Queen4.5%15/1
Bless The Broken3.3%20/1
Classic Q3.2%20/1
Blue Bolt2.5%2.5/1
Jancis2.2%20/1
Evershed1.6%30/1
Eccentric0.2%30/1
Red Letter0.1%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherStellify: model 26.6% vs market 5.8% (+20.8 points)Stellify+20.8Kathynmarissa: model 20.8% vs market 12.5% (+8.2 points)Kathynmarissa+8.2Gimme A Nother: model 13.3% vs market 6.8% (+6.5 points)Gimme A Nother+6.5Thought Process: model 10.6% vs market 4.7% (+5.9 points)Thought Process+5.9Lush Lips: model 6.2% vs market 5.8% (+0.4 points)Lush Lips+0.4Precise: model 5.0% vs market 16.7% (-11.7 points)Precise-11.7Expensive Queen: model 4.5% vs market 4.7% (-0.3 points)Expensive Queen-0.3Bless The Broken: model 3.3% vs market 3.6% (-0.3 points)Bless The Broken-0.3Classic Q: model 3.2% vs market 3.6% (-0.4 points)Classic Q-0.4Blue Bolt: model 2.5% vs market 21.5% (-19.0 points)Blue Bolt-19.0Jancis: model 2.2% vs market 3.6% (-1.4 points)Jancis-1.4Evershed: model 1.6% vs market 2.4% (-0.8 points)Evershed-0.8Eccentric: model 0.2% vs market 2.4% (-2.2 points)Eccentric-2.2Red Letter: model 0.1% vs market 5.8% (-5.7 points)Red Letter-5.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Stellify26.6%5.8%+20.8
Kathynmarissa20.8%12.5%+8.2
Gimme A Nother13.3%6.8%+6.5
Thought Process10.6%4.7%+5.9
Lush Lips6.2%5.8%+0.4
Precise5.0%16.7%-11.7
Expensive Queen4.5%4.7%-0.3
Bless The Broken3.3%3.6%-0.3
Classic Q3.2%3.6%-0.4
Blue Bolt2.5%21.5%-19.0
Jancis2.2%3.6%-1.4
Evershed1.6%2.4%-0.8
Eccentric0.2%2.4%-2.2
Red Letter0.1%5.8%-5.7
🌧️ Off-track: 514121116
🎯 Longshots: 1145128613104117329
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #5, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:13Englishman (4/5) 54% · fair 4-5
Place:11T O Elvis (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -42%
Show:7Built (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31%
Other contenders:9Nakatomi (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33%, 5Listenupshance (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -41%, 12Stradale (20/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -36%, 3Liam Smith (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:4Hymn (15/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -57%, 10Roll On Big Joe (30/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -28%, 1Mad House (30/1) 2% · fair 117-2 underlay -49%, 8Little Thunder (30/1) 1% · fair 153-2 underlay -61%, 2Dark Saffron (20/1) 1% · fair 359-2 underlay -89%, 6American Stage (30/1) 0% · fair 469-2 underlay -87%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Englishman — 54.0% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Englishman54.0% ◀T O Elvis — 14.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1T O Elvis14.3%Built — 6.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Built6.4%Nakatomi — 5.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Nakatomi5.3%Listenupshance — 4.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Listenupshance4.7%Stradale — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Stradale3.1%Liam Smith — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Liam Smith3.0%Hymn — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Hymn2.8%Roll On Big Joe — 2.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Roll On Big Joe2.4%Mad House — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Mad House1.7%Little Thunder — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Little Thunder1.3%Dark Saffron — 0.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Dark Saffron0.6%American Stage — 0.4% win probability, morning line 30/1American Stage0.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Englishman54.0%0.8/1
T O Elvis14.3%3.5/1
Built6.4%10/1
Nakatomi5.3%12/1
Listenupshance4.7%12/1
Stradale3.1%20/1
Liam Smith3.0%20/1
Hymn2.8%15/1
Roll On Big Joe2.4%30/1
Mad House1.7%30/1
Little Thunder1.3%30/1
Dark Saffron0.6%20/1
American Stage0.4%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherEnglishman: model 54.0% vs market 40.9% (+13.0 points)Englishman+13.0T O Elvis: model 14.3% vs market 16.4% (-2.1 points)T O Elvis-2.1Built: model 6.4% vs market 6.7% (-0.3 points)Built-0.3Nakatomi: model 5.3% vs market 5.7% (-0.3 points)Nakatomi-0.3Listenupshance: model 4.7% vs market 5.7% (-1.0 points)Listenupshance-1.0Stradale: model 3.1% vs market 3.5% (-0.4 points)Stradale-0.4Liam Smith: model 3.0% vs market 3.5% (-0.5 points)Liam Smith-0.5Hymn: model 2.8% vs market 4.6% (-1.8 points)Hymn-1.8Roll On Big Joe: model 2.4% vs market 2.4% (-0.0 points)Roll On Big Joe-0.0Mad House: model 1.7% vs market 2.4% (-0.7 points)Mad House-0.7Little Thunder: model 1.3% vs market 2.4% (-1.1 points)Little Thunder-1.1Dark Saffron: model 0.6% vs market 3.5% (-3.0 points)Dark Saffron-3.0American Stage: model 0.4% vs market 2.4% (-2.0 points)American Stage-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Englishman54.0%40.9%+13.0
T O Elvis14.3%16.4%-2.1
Built6.4%6.7%-0.3
Nakatomi5.3%5.7%-0.3
Listenupshance4.7%5.7%-1.0
Stradale3.1%3.5%-0.4
Liam Smith3.0%3.5%-0.5
Hymn2.8%4.6%-1.8
Roll On Big Joe2.4%2.4%-0.0
Mad House1.7%2.4%-0.7
Little Thunder1.3%2.4%-1.1
Dark Saffron0.6%3.5%-3.0
American Stage0.4%2.4%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 13117954
🎯 Longshots: 13511791243181026
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #11, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:8Notable Speech (7/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -50%
Place:2Lake Forest (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Show:1Deterministic (8/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +25%
Other contenders:9Rhetorical (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 6Zulu Kingdom (15/1) 8% · fair 11-1 overlay +38%, 11Formidable Man (15/1) 8% · fair 12-1 overlay +27%, 3Facteur Cheval (30/1) 3% · fair 73-2, 13Brilliant Berti (30/1) 3% · fair 75-2
Rest of field:15Vina Arana (30/1) 2% · fair 91-2 underlay -34%, 15Vina Arana (30/1) 2% · fair 91-2 underlay -34%, 4Cabo Spirit (30/1) 2% · fair 46-1 underlay -35%, 5Ask Ikigomi (20/1) 1% · fair 149-2 underlay -73%, 14Puerto Rico (10/1) 1% · fair 118-1 underlay -92%, 12True Love (8/1) 1% · fair 331-2 underlay -95%, 7Qirat (30/1) 0% · fair 505-2 underlay -88%, 10Lugal (30/1) 0% · fair 281-1 underlay -89%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Notable Speech — 26.3% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Notable Speech26.3% ◀Lake Forest — 15.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Lake Forest15.2%Deterministic — 13.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Deterministic13.6%Rhetorical — 13.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Rhetorical13.5%Zulu Kingdom — 8.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Zulu Kingdom8.4%Formidable Man — 7.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Formidable Man7.8%Facteur Cheval — 2.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Facteur Cheval2.7%Brilliant Berti — 2.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Brilliant Berti2.6%Vina Arana — 2.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Vina Arana2.2%Vina Arana — 2.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Vina Arana2.2%Cabo Spirit — 2.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Cabo Spirit2.1%Ask Ikigomi — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Ask Ikigomi1.3%Puerto Rico — 0.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Puerto Rico0.8%True Love — 0.6% win probability, morning line 8/1True Love0.6%Qirat — 0.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Qirat0.4%Lugal — 0.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Lugal0.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Notable Speech26.3%1.4/1
Lake Forest15.2%6/1
Deterministic13.6%8/1
Rhetorical13.5%8/1
Zulu Kingdom8.4%15/1
Formidable Man7.8%15/1
Facteur Cheval2.7%30/1
Brilliant Berti2.6%30/1
Vina Arana2.2%30/1
Vina Arana2.2%30/1
Cabo Spirit2.1%30/1
Ask Ikigomi1.3%20/1
Puerto Rico0.8%10/1
True Love0.6%8/1
Qirat0.4%30/1
Lugal0.4%30/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNotable Speech: model 26.3% vs market 30.1% (-3.9 points)Notable Speech-3.9Lake Forest: model 15.2% vs market 10.3% (+4.9 points)Lake Forest+4.9Deterministic: model 13.6% vs market 8.0% (+5.5 points)Deterministic+5.5Rhetorical: model 13.5% vs market 8.0% (+5.4 points)Rhetorical+5.4Zulu Kingdom: model 8.4% vs market 4.5% (+3.9 points)Zulu Kingdom+3.9Formidable Man: model 7.8% vs market 4.5% (+3.3 points)Formidable Man+3.3Facteur Cheval: model 2.7% vs market 2.3% (+0.3 points)Facteur Cheval+0.3Brilliant Berti: model 2.6% vs market 2.3% (+0.3 points)Brilliant Berti+0.3Vina Arana: model 2.2% vs market 2.3% (-0.2 points)Vina Arana-0.2Vina Arana: model 2.2% vs market 2.3% (-0.2 points)Vina Arana-0.2Cabo Spirit: model 2.1% vs market 2.3% (-0.2 points)Cabo Spirit-0.2Ask Ikigomi: model 1.3% vs market 3.4% (-2.1 points)Ask Ikigomi-2.1Puerto Rico: model 0.8% vs market 6.6% (-5.7 points)Puerto Rico-5.7True Love: model 0.6% vs market 8.0% (-7.4 points)True Love-7.4Qirat: model 0.4% vs market 2.3% (-1.9 points)Qirat-1.9Lugal: model 0.4% vs market 2.3% (-2.0 points)Lugal-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Notable Speech26.3%30.1%-3.9
Lake Forest15.2%10.3%+4.9
Deterministic13.6%8.0%+5.5
Rhetorical13.5%8.0%+5.4
Zulu Kingdom8.4%4.5%+3.9
Formidable Man7.8%4.5%+3.3
Facteur Cheval2.7%2.3%+0.3
Brilliant Berti2.6%2.3%+0.3
Vina Arana2.2%2.3%-0.2
Vina Arana2.2%2.3%-0.2
Cabo Spirit2.1%2.3%-0.2
Ask Ikigomi1.3%3.4%-2.1
Puerto Rico0.8%6.6%-5.7
True Love0.6%8.0%-7.4
Qirat0.4%2.3%-1.9
Lugal0.4%2.3%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 8219126
🎯 Longshots: 81691221151415157133410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:2Nitrogen (6/5) 35% · fair 2-1 underlay -36%
Place:8Splendora (9/2) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +54%
Show:4Fully Subscribed (8/5) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -51%
Other contenders:5Scottish Lassie (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -29%, 3Regaled (20/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 7Super Corredora (15/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -52%
Rest of field:6Measure (20/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -51%, 1Immersive (30/1) 2% · fair 129-2 underlay -53%, 9Eunomia (30/1) 1% · fair 161-2 underlay -63%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Nitrogen — 34.7% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Nitrogen34.7% ◀Splendora — 25.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Splendora25.5%Fully Subscribed — 23.3% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Fully Subscribed23.3%Scottish Lassie — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Scottish Lassie4.5%Regaled — 3.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Regaled3.7%Super Corredora — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Super Corredora3.1%Measure — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Measure2.4%Immersive — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Immersive1.5%Eunomia — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Eunomia1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Nitrogen34.7%1.2/1
Splendora25.5%4.5/1
Fully Subscribed23.3%1.6/1
Scottish Lassie4.5%15/1
Regaled3.7%20/1
Super Corredora3.1%15/1
Measure2.4%20/1
Immersive1.5%30/1
Eunomia1.2%30/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNitrogen: model 34.7% vs market 34.8% (-0.1 points)Nitrogen-0.1Splendora: model 25.5% vs market 13.9% (+11.6 points)Splendora+11.6Fully Subscribed: model 23.3% vs market 29.5% (-6.2 points)Fully Subscribed-6.2Scottish Lassie: model 4.5% vs market 4.8% (-0.2 points)Scottish Lassie-0.2Regaled: model 3.7% vs market 3.6% (+0.1 points)Regaled+0.1Super Corredora: model 3.1% vs market 4.8% (-1.7 points)Super Corredora-1.7Measure: model 2.4% vs market 3.6% (-1.2 points)Measure-1.2Immersive: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-0.9 points)Immersive-0.9Eunomia: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.2 points)Eunomia-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Nitrogen34.7%34.8%-0.1
Splendora25.5%13.9%+11.6
Fully Subscribed23.3%29.5%-6.2
Scottish Lassie4.5%4.8%-0.2
Regaled3.7%3.6%+0.1
Super Corredora3.1%4.8%-1.7
Measure2.4%3.6%-1.2
Immersive1.5%2.5%-0.9
Eunomia1.2%2.5%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 248573
🎯 Longshots: 482769531
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1 1/2 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $5,000,000
Win:10Tiffany (10/1) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +230%
Place:6Burnham Square (8/1) 22% · fair 7-2 overlay +127%
Show:1Ethical Diamond (10/1) 13% · fair 13-2 overlay +53%
Other contenders:11Survie (15/1) 7% · fair 29-2, 3Minaret Station (15/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 12Diamond Necklace (3/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -81%, 2Benvenuto Cellini (6/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -75%, 5El Cordobes (15/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -38%
Rest of field:4Far Bridge (20/1) 4% · fair 49-2, 8Test Score (30/1) 4% · fair 27-1, 16Telescopic (30/1) 2% · fair 45-1 underlay -33%, 13Bay City Roller (5/1) 2% · fair 64-1 underlay -92%, 9Johanna Walsh (12/1) 1% · fair 295-2 underlay -92%, 7Hotazhell (15/1) 1% · fair 152-1 underlay -90%, 14Deep Monster (30/1) 0% · fair 791-2 underlay -92%, 15Map Of Stars (20/1) 0% · fair 695-1 underlay -97%
Race 11 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tiffany — 24.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Tiffany24.8% ◀Burnham Square — 22.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Burnham Square22.1%Ethical Diamond — 13.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Ethical Diamond13.3%Survie — 6.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Survie6.5%Minaret Station — 6.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Minaret Station6.5%Diamond Necklace — 5.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Diamond Necklace5.9%Benvenuto Cellini — 4.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Benvenuto Cellini4.1%El Cordobes — 4.0% win probability, morning line 15/1El Cordobes4.0%Far Bridge — 3.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Far Bridge3.9%Test Score — 3.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Test Score3.6%Telescopic — 2.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Telescopic2.2%Bay City Roller — 1.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Bay City Roller1.5%Johanna Walsh — 0.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Johanna Walsh0.7%Hotazhell — 0.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Hotazhell0.7%Deep Monster — 0.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Deep Monster0.3%Map Of Stars — 0.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Map Of Stars0.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tiffany24.8%10/1
Burnham Square22.1%8/1
Ethical Diamond13.3%10/1
Survie6.5%15/1
Minaret Station6.5%15/1
Diamond Necklace5.9%3/1
Benvenuto Cellini4.1%6/1
El Cordobes4.0%15/1
Far Bridge3.9%20/1
Test Score3.6%30/1
Telescopic2.2%30/1
Bay City Roller1.5%5/1
Johanna Walsh0.7%12/1
Hotazhell0.7%15/1
Deep Monster0.3%30/1
Map Of Stars0.1%20/1
Race 11 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTiffany: model 24.8% vs market 6.6% (+18.2 points)Tiffany+18.2Burnham Square: model 22.1% vs market 8.1% (+14.0 points)Burnham Square+14.0Ethical Diamond: model 13.3% vs market 6.6% (+6.6 points)Ethical Diamond+6.6Survie: model 6.5% vs market 4.6% (+2.0 points)Survie+2.0Minaret Station: model 6.5% vs market 4.6% (+1.9 points)Minaret Station+1.9Diamond Necklace: model 5.9% vs market 18.2% (-12.3 points)Diamond Necklace-12.3Benvenuto Cellini: model 4.1% vs market 10.4% (-6.4 points)Benvenuto Cellini-6.4El Cordobes: model 4.0% vs market 4.6% (-0.6 points)El Cordobes-0.6Far Bridge: model 3.9% vs market 3.5% (+0.4 points)Far Bridge+0.4Test Score: model 3.6% vs market 2.4% (+1.2 points)Test Score+1.2Telescopic: model 2.2% vs market 2.4% (-0.2 points)Telescopic-0.2Bay City Roller: model 1.5% vs market 12.2% (-10.6 points)Bay City Roller-10.6Johanna Walsh: model 0.7% vs market 5.6% (-4.9 points)Johanna Walsh-4.9Hotazhell: model 0.7% vs market 4.6% (-3.9 points)Hotazhell-3.9Deep Monster: model 0.3% vs market 2.4% (-2.1 points)Deep Monster-2.1Map Of Stars: model 0.1% vs market 3.5% (-3.3 points)Map Of Stars-3.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tiffany24.8%6.6%+18.2
Burnham Square22.1%8.1%+14.0
Ethical Diamond13.3%6.6%+6.6
Survie6.5%4.6%+2.0
Minaret Station6.5%4.6%+1.9
Diamond Necklace5.9%18.2%-12.3
Benvenuto Cellini4.1%10.4%-6.4
El Cordobes4.0%4.6%-0.6
Far Bridge3.9%3.5%+0.4
Test Score3.6%2.4%+1.2
Telescopic2.2%2.4%-0.2
Bay City Roller1.5%12.2%-10.6
Johanna Walsh0.7%5.6%-4.9
Hotazhell0.7%4.6%-3.9
Deep Monster0.3%2.4%-2.1
Map Of Stars0.1%3.5%-3.3
🌧️ Off-track: 610121213
🎯 Longshots: 16121093784521513111614
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #1, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 12  1 1/4 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $7,000,000
Win:5Forever Young (2/1) 99% · fair 1-5 overlay +36675%
Place:3Golden Tempo (5/1) 0% · fair 1123-2 underlay -99%
Show:6Magnitude (6/1) 0% · fair 881-1 underlay -99%
Other contenders:7Knightsbridge (9/2) 0% · fair 1819-2 underlay -100%, 2Sovereignty (5/2) 0% · fair 1953-2 underlay -100%, 4The Puma (10/1) 0% · fair 4672-1 underlay -100%
Rest of field:8Napoleon Solo (15/1) 0% · fair 13697-2 underlay -100%, 1T O Password (30/1) 0% · fair 62499-1 underlay -100%
Race 12 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Forever Young — 99.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Forever Young99.5% ◀Golden Tempo — 0.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Golden Tempo0.2%Magnitude — 0.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Magnitude0.1%Knightsbridge — 0.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Knightsbridge0.1%Sovereignty — 0.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sovereignty0.1%The Puma — 0.0% win probability, morning line 10/1The Puma0.0%Napoleon Solo — 0.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Napoleon Solo0.0%T O Password — 0.0% win probability, morning line 30/1T O Password0.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Forever Young99.5%2/1
Golden Tempo0.2%5/1
Magnitude0.1%6/1
Knightsbridge0.1%4.5/1
Sovereignty0.1%2.5/1
The Puma0.0%10/1
Napoleon Solo0.0%15/1
T O Password0.0%30/1
Race 12 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherForever Young: model 99.5% vs market 25.7% (+73.7 points)Forever Young+73.7Golden Tempo: model 0.2% vs market 12.9% (-12.7 points)Golden Tempo-12.7Magnitude: model 0.1% vs market 11.0% (-10.9 points)Magnitude-10.9Knightsbridge: model 0.1% vs market 14.0% (-13.9 points)Knightsbridge-13.9Sovereignty: model 0.1% vs market 22.0% (-21.9 points)Sovereignty-21.9The Puma: model 0.0% vs market 7.0% (-7.0 points)The Puma-7.0Napoleon Solo: model 0.0% vs market 4.8% (-4.8 points)Napoleon Solo-4.8T O Password: model 0.0% vs market 2.5% (-2.5 points)T O Password-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Forever Young99.5%25.7%+73.7
Golden Tempo0.2%12.9%-12.7
Magnitude0.1%11.0%-10.9
Knightsbridge0.1%14.0%-13.9
Sovereignty0.1%22.0%-21.9
The Puma0.0%7.0%-7.0
Napoleon Solo0.0%4.8%-4.8
T O Password0.0%2.5%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 527364
🎯 Longshots: 23857461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Keeneland Race Course — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 225 graded races at Keeneland Race Course, 2026-04-03 to 2026-10-24.

$0$2$4$6$7Our top pick: $5.99 from 64 racesOur top pick$5.99Morning-line favourite: $5.44 from 61 racesMorning-line favourite$5.44

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.9964
Morning-line favourite$5.4461
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
Win:5Powerline (8/5)
Place:6You Want Some (12/1)
Show:11Overtime Bonus (12/1)
Other contenders:4Knicks Diamonds (10/1), 9Mahogany Dream (20/1), 12Shock Value (12/1), 2Highwaymen (6/1)
Rest of field:8Supreme Commander (5/1), 7Bourbon Neat (8/1), 3Tacamo (30/1), 1Candor (20/1), 10Baytown Thracian (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 582467
🎯 Longshots: 561198247121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #11, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:9Right In Time (5/2)
Place:4Harmoniously (5/1)
Show:5Virabhadrasana (7/2)
Other contenders:8Don't Tell Mom (6/1), 6She's Toasty (9/2), 3Master Queen (8/1)
Rest of field:2Girls Wear Pearls (12/1), 1Betty Sue (15/1), 7Fizzypopberrytwist (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 954683
🎯 Longshots: 964583217
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $185,000
Win:1Booth (4/1)
Place:11Saudi Crown (5/2)
Show:5Extra Anejo (8/1)
Other contenders:2Steeze (8/1), 8Tennessee Lamb (12/1), 6Will Take It (12/1), 9Sir Greylind (8/1)
Rest of field:7Durante (20/1), 10Floodlites (12/1), 12Here Mi Song (15/1), 4Lips Say Bliss (15/1), 3Jimmy Rules (30/1), 13Henro (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1115298
🎯 Longshots: 11185210691274313
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:2Ways And Means (7/5)
Place:11Explora (4/1)
Show:4R Disaster (8/1)
Other contenders:12Kilwin (8/1), 9Sweet Azteca (8/1), 6Majestic Oops (15/1), 1Look Forward (20/1)
Rest of field:7Evanescence (15/1), 8Kerry's Kiss (20/1), 5Foie Gras (20/1), 10Simply Joking (30/1), 3Praying (30/1), 13Nooni (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21141296
🎯 Longshots: 24129116718531310
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #4, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:3Bacio (5/2)
Place:10Cy Fair (8/1)
Show:2Shisospicy (15/1)
Other contenders:9In Our Time (20/1), 11Joe Shiesty (10/1), 6Yellow Card (8/1), 1John The Beer Man (30/1), 8Possiblemente (12/1)
Rest of field:16No Nay Hudson (15/1), 4Roja (30/1), 7Comanche Brave (3/1), 12Sorrento Sky (12/1), 17Doncho (20/1), 18Outfielder (30/1), 5Time To Dazzle (20/1), 15Big Mojo (20/1), 13Starlust (20/1), 14Miss Yechance (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 37106118
🎯 Longshots: 121063811721816179154141315
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:1Further Ado (2/1)
Place:7Bracket Buster (7/2)
Show:10Owen Almighty (10/1)
Other contenders:5Coal Battle (6/1), 4Chunk Of Gold (8/1), 9Forged Steel (15/1), 3Full Serrano (10/1)
Rest of field:2T Kraft (15/1), 8Moonlight (15/1), 11Iron Man Cal (12/1), 6Lord Fons (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1754103
🎯 Longshots: 1102793485116
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #10, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 3/16 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:14Stellify (12/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:5Kathynmarissa (5/1)
Show:6Thought Process (15/1)
Other contenders:10Expensive Queen (15/1), 1Gimme A Nother (10/1), 13Lush Lips (12/1), 3Classic Q (20/1)
Rest of field:12Blue Bolt (5/2), 11Precise (7/2), 7Bless The Broken (20/1), 8Jancis (20/1), 2Evershed (30/1), 4Red Letter (12/1), 9Eccentric (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1251114113
🎯 Longshots: 1145128613104117329
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #5, #6, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:13Englishman (4/5)
Place:11T O Elvis (7/2)
Show:7Built (10/1)
Other contenders:5Listenupshance (12/1), 9Nakatomi (12/1), 6American Stage (30/1), 3Liam Smith (20/1)
Rest of field:12Stradale (20/1), 4Hymn (15/1), 1Mad House (30/1), 10Roll On Big Joe (30/1), 8Little Thunder (30/1), 2Dark Saffron (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13117594
🎯 Longshots: 13511791243181026
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #11, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:8Notable Speech (7/5)
Place:1Deterministic (8/1)
Show:9Rhetorical (8/1)
Other contenders:2Lake Forest (6/1), 6Zulu Kingdom (15/1), 11Formidable Man (15/1), 13Brilliant Berti (30/1), 3Facteur Cheval (30/1)
Rest of field:4Cabo Spirit (30/1), 12True Love (8/1), 15Vina Arana (30/1), 15Vina Arana (30/1), 10Lugal (30/1), 5Ask Ikigomi (20/1), 14Puerto Rico (10/1), 7Qirat (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8219126
🎯 Longshots: 81691221151415157133410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:2Nitrogen (6/5)
Place:4Fully Subscribed (8/5)
Show:8Splendora (9/2)
Other contenders:7Super Corredora (15/1), 1Immersive (30/1), 5Scottish Lassie (15/1)
Rest of field:9Eunomia (30/1), 6Measure (20/1), 3Regaled (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 248756
🎯 Longshots: 482769531
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1 1/2 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $5,000,000
Win:1Ethical Diamond (10/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:6Burnham Square (8/1)
Show:12Diamond Necklace (3/1)
Other contenders:5El Cordobes (15/1), 3Minaret Station (15/1), 8Test Score (30/1), 4Far Bridge (20/1), 10Tiffany (10/1)
Rest of field:11Survie (15/1), 2Benvenuto Cellini (6/1), 16Telescopic (30/1), 13Bay City Roller (5/1), 7Hotazhell (15/1), 9Johanna Walsh (12/1), 15Map Of Stars (20/1), 14Deep Monster (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 126131210
🎯 Longshots: 16121093784521513111614
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #12, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 12  1 1/4 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $7,000,000
Win:5Forever Young (2/1)
Place:2Sovereignty (5/2)
Show:3Golden Tempo (5/1)
Other contenders:6Magnitude (6/1), 7Knightsbridge (9/2), 8Napoleon Solo (15/1)
Rest of field:4The Puma (10/1), 1T O Password (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 523764
🎯 Longshots: 23857461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #5 over #8 ($1 straight; box #5-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #11, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #9 over #5 ($1 straight; box #9-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #4, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #11 over #1 ($1 straight; box #11-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #11 over #1, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #2 over #11 ($1 straight; box #2-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #11, #12, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #10, #3, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #1 over #7 ($1 straight; box #1-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #7, #5, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #5 over #14 ($1 straight; box #5-#14 for cover)
Trifecta: #14 over #5, #13, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #13 over #11 ($1 straight; box #13-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #13 over #7, #11, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #8 over #1 ($1 straight; box #8-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #1, #9, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #8, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 11AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #8, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 12AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.39 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
714Stellify12/1—15.2%+89.4%1.86%$1.86
52Shisospicy15/1—8.7%+36.5%0.61%$0.61
38Tennessee Lamb12/1—9.8%+25.2%0.52%$0.52
516No Nay Hudson15/1—7.9%+24.2%0.40%$0.40
96Zulu Kingdom15/1—7.9%+23.8%0.40%$0.40
113Minaret Station15/1—7.6%+19.8%0.33%$0.33
111Overtime Bonus12/1—9.0%+16.2%0.34%$0.34
16You Want Some12/1—8.9%+14.5%0.30%$0.30
115El Cordobes15/1—7.2%+13.9%0.23%$0.23
511Joe Shiesty10/1—10.1%+10.6%0.26%$0.26
1110Tiffany10/1—10.1%+10.0%0.25%$0.25
118Test Score ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—3.6%+9.8%0.08%$0.08
114Far Bridge ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—5.1%+6.5%0.08%$0.08
913Brilliant Berti ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—3.3%+3.2%0.03%$0.03
59In Our Time ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—4.6%+-2.5%0.00%$0.00
518Outfielder ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—3.1%+-3.0%0.00%$0.00
93Facteur Cheval ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—3.1%+-3.9%0.00%$0.00
81Mad House ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.9%+-8.2%0.00%$0.00
88Little Thunder ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.9%+-8.8%0.00%$0.00
1116Telescopic ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-18.2%0.00%$0.00
915Vina Arana ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-18.7%0.00%$0.00
915Vina Arana ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-18.7%0.00%$0.00
94Cabo Spirit ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-18.8%0.00%$0.00
810Roll On Big Joe ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.5%+-19.7%0.00%$0.00
51John The Beer Man ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.5%+-20.3%0.00%$0.00
19Mahogany Dream ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.6%+-22.3%0.00%$0.00
413Nooni ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.4%+-25.0%0.00%$0.00
517Doncho ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.3%+-27.5%0.00%$0.00
812Stradale ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.3%+-28.3%0.00%$0.00
54Roja ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.2%+-29.8%0.00%$0.00
95Ask Ikigomi ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.2%+-30.8%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 31 plays:5.7%$5.70
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
Win:5Powerline (8/5)
Place:6You Want Some (12/1)
Show:4Knicks Diamonds (10/1)
Other contenders:8Supreme Commander (5/1), 2Highwaymen (6/1), 11Overtime Bonus (12/1), 12Shock Value (12/1)
Rest of field:7Bourbon Neat (8/1), 9Mahogany Dream (20/1), 1Candor (20/1), 3Tacamo (30/1), 10Baytown Thracian (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 582476
🎯 Longshots: 561198247121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:9Right In Time (5/2)
Place:4Harmoniously (5/1)
Show:5Virabhadrasana (7/2)
Other contenders:8Don't Tell Mom (6/1), 6She's Toasty (9/2), 3Master Queen (8/1)
Rest of field:1Betty Sue (15/1), 2Girls Wear Pearls (12/1), 7Fizzypopberrytwist (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 954683
🎯 Longshots: 964583217
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $185,000
Win:1Booth (4/1)
Place:11Saudi Crown (5/2)
Show:8Tennessee Lamb (12/1)
Other contenders:2Steeze (8/1), 10Floodlites (12/1), 5Extra Anejo (8/1), 6Will Take It (12/1)
Rest of field:7Durante (20/1), 9Sir Greylind (8/1), 4Lips Say Bliss (15/1), 3Jimmy Rules (30/1), 12Here Mi Song (15/1), 13Henro (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1112589
🎯 Longshots: 11185210691274313
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:2Ways And Means (7/5)
Place:12Kilwin (8/1)
Show:11Explora (4/1)
Other contenders:9Sweet Azteca (8/1), 4R Disaster (8/1), 6Majestic Oops (15/1), 7Evanescence (15/1)
Rest of field:5Foie Gras (20/1), 1Look Forward (20/1), 8Kerry's Kiss (20/1), 13Nooni (30/1), 3Praying (30/1), 10Simply Joking (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21112946
🎯 Longshots: 24129116718531310
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #12, #11, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:3Bacio (5/2)
Place:7Comanche Brave (3/1)
Show:10Cy Fair (8/1)
Other contenders:1John The Beer Man (30/1), 11Joe Shiesty (10/1), 6Yellow Card (8/1), 18Outfielder (30/1), 16No Nay Hudson (15/1)
Rest of field:2Shisospicy (15/1), 8Possiblemente (12/1), 9In Our Time (20/1), 12Sorrento Sky (12/1), 17Doncho (20/1), 4Roja (30/1), 5Time To Dazzle (20/1), 14Miss Yechance (15/1), 15Big Mojo (20/1), 13Starlust (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 37106118
🎯 Longshots: 121063811721816179154141315
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #10, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:1Further Ado (2/1)
Place:7Bracket Buster (7/2)
Show:10Owen Almighty (10/1)
Other contenders:5Coal Battle (6/1), 3Full Serrano (10/1), 9Forged Steel (15/1), 4Chunk Of Gold (8/1)
Rest of field:2T Kraft (15/1), 11Iron Man Cal (12/1), 8Moonlight (15/1), 6Lord Fons (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1751043
🎯 Longshots: 1102793485116
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #10, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 3/16 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:12Blue Bolt (5/2)
Place:11Precise (7/2)
Show:5Kathynmarissa (5/1)
Other contenders:4Red Letter (12/1), 14Stellify (12/1), 13Lush Lips (12/1), 1Gimme A Nother (10/1)
Rest of field:6Thought Process (15/1), 10Expensive Queen (15/1), 3Classic Q (20/1), 7Bless The Broken (20/1), 8Jancis (20/1), 9Eccentric (30/1), 2Evershed (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 121154141
🎯 Longshots: 1145128613104117329
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #11, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:13Englishman (4/5)
Place:7Built (10/1)
Show:11T O Elvis (7/2)
Other contenders:5Listenupshance (12/1), 2Dark Saffron (20/1), 9Nakatomi (12/1), 4Hymn (15/1)
Rest of field:3Liam Smith (20/1), 12Stradale (20/1), 6American Stage (30/1), 1Mad House (30/1), 10Roll On Big Joe (30/1), 8Little Thunder (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13117594
🎯 Longshots: 13511791243181026
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #11, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:8Notable Speech (7/5)
Place:2Lake Forest (6/1)
Show:1Deterministic (8/1)
Other contenders:9Rhetorical (8/1), 6Zulu Kingdom (15/1), 14Puerto Rico (10/1), 13Brilliant Berti (30/1), 3Facteur Cheval (30/1)
Rest of field:12True Love (8/1), 11Formidable Man (15/1), 5Ask Ikigomi (20/1), 4Cabo Spirit (30/1), 10Lugal (30/1), 15Vina Arana (30/1), 15Vina Arana (30/1), 7Qirat (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 82191214
🎯 Longshots: 81691221151415157133410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:8Splendora (9/2)
Place:2Nitrogen (6/5)
Show:4Fully Subscribed (8/5)
Other contenders:6Measure (20/1), 7Super Corredora (15/1), 1Immersive (30/1)
Rest of field:9Eunomia (30/1), 5Scottish Lassie (15/1), 3Regaled (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 248756
🎯 Longshots: 482769531
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1 1/2 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $5,000,000
Win:12Diamond Necklace (3/1)
Place:6Burnham Square (8/1)
Show:2Benvenuto Cellini (6/1)
Other contenders:13Bay City Roller (5/1), 9Johanna Walsh (12/1), 1Ethical Diamond (10/1), 5El Cordobes (15/1), 10Tiffany (10/1)
Rest of field:4Far Bridge (20/1), 3Minaret Station (15/1), 11Survie (15/1), 8Test Score (30/1), 7Hotazhell (15/1), 15Map Of Stars (20/1), 16Telescopic (30/1), 14Deep Monster (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12132619
🎯 Longshots: 16121093784521513111614
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #6, #2, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 12  1 1/4 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $7,000,000
Win:5Forever Young (2/1)
Place:6Magnitude (6/1)
Show:7Knightsbridge (9/2)
Other contenders:2Sovereignty (5/2), 3Golden Tempo (5/1), 8Napoleon Solo (15/1)
Rest of field:4The Puma (10/1), 1T O Password (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 527364
🎯 Longshots: 23857461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
Win:5Powerline (8/5)
Place:11Overtime Bonus (12/1)
Show:4Knicks Diamonds (10/1)
Other contenders:9Mahogany Dream (20/1), 6You Want Some (12/1), 12Shock Value (12/1), 2Highwaymen (6/1)
Rest of field:8Supreme Commander (5/1), 7Bourbon Neat (8/1), 3Tacamo (30/1), 1Candor (20/1), 10Baytown Thracian (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5824117
🎯 Longshots: 561198247121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:9Right In Time (5/2)
Place:4Harmoniously (5/1)
Show:5Virabhadrasana (7/2)
Other contenders:8Don't Tell Mom (6/1), 6She's Toasty (9/2), 2Girls Wear Pearls (12/1)
Rest of field:1Betty Sue (15/1), 3Master Queen (8/1), 7Fizzypopberrytwist (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 954683
🎯 Longshots: 964583217
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $185,000
Win:11Saudi Crown (5/2)
Place:1Booth (4/1)
Show:6Will Take It (12/1)
Other contenders:5Extra Anejo (8/1), 8Tennessee Lamb (12/1), 10Floodlites (12/1), 7Durante (20/1)
Rest of field:2Steeze (8/1), 9Sir Greylind (8/1), 4Lips Say Bliss (15/1), 12Here Mi Song (15/1), 3Jimmy Rules (30/1), 13Henro (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1115296
🎯 Longshots: 11185210691274313
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:2Ways And Means (7/5)
Place:11Explora (4/1)
Show:12Kilwin (8/1)
Other contenders:4R Disaster (8/1), 9Sweet Azteca (8/1), 6Majestic Oops (15/1), 8Kerry's Kiss (20/1)
Rest of field:1Look Forward (20/1), 7Evanescence (15/1), 5Foie Gras (20/1), 10Simply Joking (30/1), 3Praying (30/1), 13Nooni (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21112496
🎯 Longshots: 24129116718531310
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #12, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:2Shisospicy (15/1)
Place:10Cy Fair (8/1)
Show:3Bacio (5/2)
Other contenders:9In Our Time (20/1), 8Possiblemente (12/1), 11Joe Shiesty (10/1), 6Yellow Card (8/1), 1John The Beer Man (30/1)
Rest of field:16No Nay Hudson (15/1), 12Sorrento Sky (12/1), 5Time To Dazzle (20/1), 17Doncho (20/1), 7Comanche Brave (3/1), 4Roja (30/1), 18Outfielder (30/1), 15Big Mojo (20/1), 13Starlust (20/1), 14Miss Yechance (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 37106112
🎯 Longshots: 121063811721816179154141315
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #10, #3, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:1Further Ado (2/1)
Place:7Bracket Buster (7/2)
Show:5Coal Battle (6/1)
Other contenders:10Owen Almighty (10/1), 3Full Serrano (10/1), 4Chunk Of Gold (8/1), 9Forged Steel (15/1)
Rest of field:11Iron Man Cal (12/1), 2T Kraft (15/1), 8Moonlight (15/1), 6Lord Fons (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1754103
🎯 Longshots: 1102793485116
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #5, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 3/16 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:14Stellify (12/1)
Place:5Kathynmarissa (5/1)
Show:13Lush Lips (12/1)
Other contenders:3Classic Q (20/1), 7Bless The Broken (20/1), 6Thought Process (15/1), 10Expensive Queen (15/1)
Rest of field:1Gimme A Nother (10/1), 12Blue Bolt (5/2), 11Precise (7/2), 2Evershed (30/1), 8Jancis (20/1), 4Red Letter (12/1), 9Eccentric (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5121114113
🎯 Longshots: 1145128613104117329
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #5, #13, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:13Englishman (4/5)
Place:7Built (10/1)
Show:11T O Elvis (7/2)
Other contenders:5Listenupshance (12/1), 9Nakatomi (12/1), 12Stradale (20/1), 4Hymn (15/1)
Rest of field:3Liam Smith (20/1), 1Mad House (30/1), 8Little Thunder (30/1), 2Dark Saffron (20/1), 10Roll On Big Joe (30/1), 6American Stage (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13117594
🎯 Longshots: 13511791243181026
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #11, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:8Notable Speech (7/5)
Place:1Deterministic (8/1)
Show:9Rhetorical (8/1)
Other contenders:3Facteur Cheval (30/1), 2Lake Forest (6/1), 13Brilliant Berti (30/1), 11Formidable Man (15/1), 6Zulu Kingdom (15/1)
Rest of field:4Cabo Spirit (30/1), 15Vina Arana (30/1), 15Vina Arana (30/1), 12True Love (8/1), 5Ask Ikigomi (20/1), 10Lugal (30/1), 14Puerto Rico (10/1), 7Qirat (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 82191211
🎯 Longshots: 81691221151415157133410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #9, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:2Nitrogen (6/5)
Place:8Splendora (9/2)
Show:4Fully Subscribed (8/5)
Other contenders:7Super Corredora (15/1), 1Immersive (30/1), 5Scottish Lassie (15/1)
Rest of field:3Regaled (20/1), 9Eunomia (30/1), 6Measure (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 248753
🎯 Longshots: 482769531
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1 1/2 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $5,000,000
Win:6Burnham Square (8/1)
Place:1Ethical Diamond (10/1)
Show:8Test Score (30/1)
Other contenders:4Far Bridge (20/1), 12Diamond Necklace (3/1), 3Minaret Station (15/1), 5El Cordobes (15/1), 10Tiffany (10/1)
Rest of field:16Telescopic (30/1), 11Survie (15/1), 13Bay City Roller (5/1), 2Benvenuto Cellini (6/1), 7Hotazhell (15/1), 9Johanna Walsh (12/1), 14Deep Monster (30/1), 15Map Of Stars (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 126113210
🎯 Longshots: 16121093784521513111614
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 12  1 1/4 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $7,000,000
Win:5Forever Young (2/1)
Place:6Magnitude (6/1)
Show:2Sovereignty (5/2)
Other contenders:3Golden Tempo (5/1), 7Knightsbridge (9/2), 8Napoleon Solo (15/1)
Rest of field:4The Puma (10/1), 1T O Password (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 523674
🎯 Longshots: 23857461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R6-8R6: #1,#7,#10 (59%) / R7: #14,#5,#1 (61%) / R8: #13,#11 (68%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #14,#5,#1 (61%) / R8: #13,#11 (68%) / R9: #8,#2,#1 (55%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 3 R8-10R8: #13,#11 (68%) / R9: #8,#2,#1 (55%) / R10: #2,#8 (60%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 3 R10-12R10: #2,#8 (60%) / R11: #10,#6,#1 (60%) / R12: #5 (99%)
$6 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 4 R7-10R7: #14,#5,#1 (61%) / R8: #13,#11 (68%) / R9: #8,#2,#1 (55%) / R10: #2,#8 (60%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Pick 4 R9-12R9: #8,#2,#1 (55%) / R10: #2,#8 (60%) / R11: #10,#6,#1 (60%) / R12: #5 (99%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AMERICAN STAGEASK IKIGOMIBACIOBAY CITY ROLLERBAYTOWN THRACIAN
BETTY SUEBIG MOJOBLESS THE BROKENBLUE BOLTBOOTH
BRACKET BUSTERBRILLIANT BERTIBUILTBURNHAM SQUARECABO SPIRIT
CHUNK OF GOLDCLASSIC QCOAL BATTLECOMANCHE BRAVECY FAIR
DEEP MONSTERDETERMINISTICDIAMOND NECKLACEDON'T TELL MOMDONCHO
ECCENTRICEL CORDOBESENGLISHMANETHICAL DIAMONDEUNOMIA
EVERSHEDEXPENSIVE QUEENEXPLORAEXTRA ANEJOFACTEUR CHEVAL
FIZZYPOPBERRYTWISTFLOODLITESFOIE GRASFOREVER YOUNGFORGED STEEL
FULL SERRANOFULLY SUBSCRIBEDFURTHER ADOGIMME A NOTHERGIRLS WEAR PEARLS
HARMONIOUSLYHENROHERE MI SONGHIGHWAYMENHOTAZHELL
IMMERSIVEIN OUR TIMEIRON MAN CALJANCISJIMMY RULES
JOHANNA WALSHJOHN THE BEER MANKATHYNMARISSAKERRY'S KISSKILWIN
KNIGHTSBRIDGELAKE FORESTLIAM SMITHLIPS SAY BLISSLISTENUPSHANCE
LOOK FORWARDLORD FONSLUGALLUSH LIPSMAD HOUSE
MAHOGANY DREAMMAJESTIC OOPSMAP OF STARSMASTER QUEENMEASURE
MISS YECHANCEMOONLIGHTNAKATOMINAPOLEON SOLONITROGEN
NOONINOTABLE SPEECHOUTFIELDEROVERTIME BONUSOWEN ALMIGHTY
POWERLINEPRAYINGPRECISEPUERTO RICOQIRAT
RED LETTERREGALEDRHETORICALRIGHT IN TIMEROJA
SAUDI CROWNSCOTTISH LASSIESHE'S TOASTYSHISOSPICYSHOCK VALUE
SIR GREYLINDSORRENTO SKYSOVEREIGNTYSPLENDORASTARLUST
STELLIFYSTRADALESUPER CORREDORASUPREME COMMANDERSURVIE
T KRAFTT O ELVIST O PASSWORDTACAMOTELESCOPIC
TEST SCORETHE PUMATHOUGHT PROCESSTIFFANYTIME TO DAZZLE
VINA ARANAVINA ARANAVIRABHADRASANAWAYS AND MEANSWILL TAKE IT
YOU WANT SOMEZULU KINGDOM

 


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