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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Mahoning Valley, November 4, 2026

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AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
MVR5Model Algo 1#5 – Right Trappe3 scratch(es)
MVR5Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#5 – Right Trappe3 scratch(es)
MVR5Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#5 – Right Trappe3 scratch(es)
MVR5Model Weight set 2#5 – Right Trappe3 scratch(es)
MVR5Model Weight set 3#5 – Right Trappe3 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 4 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (4,071 graded races), the races where they agreed won 38.2% of the time against 29.9% where they did not.

Today's agreement races — MVR 1, 2, 6, 8.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Mahoning Valley — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 71 graded races at Mahoning Valley, 2026-10-19 to 2026-11-02.

0%11%23%34%46%Our top pick: 36.6% from 71 racesOur top pick36.6%Morning-line favourite: 33.8% from 71 racesMorning-line favourite33.8%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick36.6%71
Morning-line favourite33.8%71
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,100
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Polizon (9/5)
Place:5Handsome Fox (5/2)
Show:2He's A Pisces (6/1)
Other contenders:6C C's Clear Creek (3/1), 3Lao Way (10/1)
Rest of field:1Grits N Gravy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452613
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $12,200
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Kukuk (3/1)
Place:6Halley's Comet (7/2)
Show:5Hot Ice (5/2)
Other contenders:1Divineness (9/2), 4Moore Gold (6/1)
Rest of field:2Against The Time (8/1), 7Enzito (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 356142
🎯 Longshots: 3561247
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Total Silence (5/2)
Place:5Forum (2/1)
Show:1Fanti (3/1)
Other contenders:4Out Flat (7/2), 6Captain Carney (8/1)
Rest of field:2Gucci Vision (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531462
🎯 Longshots: 531462
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,400
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Renewed (7/2)
Place:7Fortheloveofbonnie (5/1)
Show:2Holiday Musical (3/1)
Other contenders:6Moody River (4/1), 8Tier Ones Legacy (6/1), 5Smartasset (8/1)
Rest of field:1Pop's Girl (10/1), 4Emerald Eyes (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372685
🎯 Longshots: 37518246
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Too Much Tuesday (5/2)
Place:5Right Trappe (3/1)
Show:9Crackle (7/2)
Other contenders:3Wicca Wisdom (6/1), 8Mali Bali (8/1), 6Sacred Connection (12/1)
Rest of field:1Lubu (20/1), 7Blazing Zenna (10/1), 2Magic Palace (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 459386
🎯 Longshots: 458916327
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #9, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Big Prankster (7/2)
Place:2Big Bucksalot (3/1)
Show:3Skyler (4/1)
Other contenders:7Tonight (8/1), 1Doctor Wu (5/1), 5Classic Richie (6/1)
Rest of field:8All Jokes Aside (10/1), 4My Dominator (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 623715
🎯 Longshots: 76283514
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Tipsy Tulip (5/2)
Place:3Illuminate (4/1)
Show:5Coloryoureggs (3/1)
Other contenders:2Cinderbella (7/2), 7Hot Cocoa (10/1), 1Striking Lady (8/1)
Rest of field:6My Kinda Party (12/1), 8Sushi Q (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 435217
🎯 Longshots: 42317568
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:6Ripman (5/2)
Place:10Watch And Wager (7/2)
Show:3Questionable Event (6/1)
Other contenders:8Dynamic Gift (9/2), 4Stanley's Stars (12/1), 11My Paisan (10/1), 2Lucky Juulz (15/1)
Rest of field:5Rivers Of Wealth (8/1), 7El Mexicano (20/1), 1Buckeye Mike (20/1), 9Mobil Dream Star (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 61083411
🎯 Longshots: 6111024387591
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Mahoning Valley — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 71 graded races at Mahoning Valley, 2026-10-19 to 2026-11-02.

0%12%25%37%49%Our top pick: 39.4% from 71 racesOur top pick39.4%Morning-line favourite: 33.8% from 71 racesMorning-line favourite33.8%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick39.4%71
Morning-line favourite33.8%71
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,100
Win:4Polizon (9/5) 48% · fair 1-1 overlay +65%
Place:5Handsome Fox (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:2He's A Pisces (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -32%
Other contenders:3Lao Way (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36%, 6C C's Clear Creek (3/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -82%
Rest of field:1Grits N Gravy (8/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -54%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Polizon — 47.8% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Polizon47.8% ◀Handsome Fox — 24.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Handsome Fox24.9%He'S A Pisces — 10.1% win probability, morning line 6/1He'S A Pisces10.1%Lao Way — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Lao Way6.1%C C'S Clear Creek — 5.7% win probability, morning line 3/1C C'S Clear Creek5.7%Grits N Gravy — 5.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Grits N Gravy5.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Polizon47.8%1.8/1
Handsome Fox24.9%2.5/1
He'S A Pisces10.1%6/1
Lao Way6.1%10/1
C C'S Clear Creek5.7%3/1
Grits N Gravy5.4%8/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPolizon: model 47.8% vs market 28.9% (+18.9 points)Polizon+18.9Handsome Fox: model 24.9% vs market 23.1% (+1.8 points)Handsome Fox+1.8He'S A Pisces: model 10.1% vs market 11.5% (-1.4 points)He'S A Pisces-1.4Lao Way: model 6.1% vs market 7.3% (-1.3 points)Lao Way-1.3C C'S Clear Creek: model 5.7% vs market 20.2% (-14.5 points)C C'S Clear Creek-14.5Grits N Gravy: model 5.4% vs market 9.0% (-3.5 points)Grits N Gravy-3.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Polizon47.8%28.9%+18.9
Handsome Fox24.9%23.1%+1.8
He'S A Pisces10.1%11.5%-1.4
Lao Way6.1%7.3%-1.3
C C'S Clear Creek5.7%20.2%-14.5
Grits N Gravy5.4%9.0%-3.5
🌧️ Off-track: 456213
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $12,200
Win:6Halley's Comet (7/2) 27% · fair 5-2 overlay +30%
Place:3Kukuk (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:5Hot Ice (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -34%
Other contenders:1Divineness (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -37%, 4Moore Gold (6/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -53%
Rest of field:2Against The Time (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49%, 7Enzito (15/1) 3% · fair 39-1 underlay -61%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Halley'S Comet — 27.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Halley'S Comet27.1% ◀Kukuk — 23.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Kukuk23.9%Hot Ice — 21.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Hot Ice21.0%Divineness — 12.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Divineness12.2%Moore Gold — 7.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Moore Gold7.3%Against The Time — 6.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Against The Time6.0%Enzito — 2.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Enzito2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Halley'S Comet27.1%3.5/1
Kukuk23.9%3/1
Hot Ice21.0%2.5/1
Divineness12.2%4.5/1
Moore Gold7.3%6/1
Against The Time6.0%8/1
Enzito2.5%15/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHalley'S Comet: model 27.1% vs market 17.7% (+9.4 points)Halley'S Comet+9.4Kukuk: model 23.9% vs market 19.9% (+4.0 points)Kukuk+4.0Hot Ice: model 21.0% vs market 22.7% (-1.8 points)Hot Ice-1.8Divineness: model 12.2% vs market 14.5% (-2.3 points)Divineness-2.3Moore Gold: model 7.3% vs market 11.4% (-4.0 points)Moore Gold-4.0Against The Time: model 6.0% vs market 8.8% (-2.8 points)Against The Time-2.8Enzito: model 2.5% vs market 5.0% (-2.5 points)Enzito-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Halley'S Comet27.1%17.7%+9.4
Kukuk23.9%19.9%+4.0
Hot Ice21.0%22.7%-1.8
Divineness12.2%14.5%-2.3
Moore Gold7.3%11.4%-4.0
Against The Time6.0%8.8%-2.8
Enzito2.5%5.0%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 635142
🎯 Longshots: 3561247
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:5Forum (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:3Total Silence (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Show:1Fanti (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Other contenders:4Out Flat (7/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -58%, 6Captain Carney (8/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -63%
Rest of field:2Gucci Vision (20/1) 1% · fair 80-1 underlay -75%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Forum — 30.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Forum30.0% ◀Total Silence — 29.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Total Silence29.9%Fanti — 23.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Fanti23.8%Out Flat — 10.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Out Flat10.6%Captain Carney — 4.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Captain Carney4.4%Gucci Vision — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Gucci Vision1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Forum30.0%2/1
Total Silence29.9%2.5/1
Fanti23.8%3/1
Out Flat10.6%3.5/1
Captain Carney4.4%8/1
Gucci Vision1.2%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherForum: model 30.0% vs market 26.7% (+3.4 points)Forum+3.4Total Silence: model 29.9% vs market 22.9% (+7.1 points)Total Silence+7.1Fanti: model 23.8% vs market 20.0% (+3.8 points)Fanti+3.8Out Flat: model 10.6% vs market 17.8% (-7.1 points)Out Flat-7.1Captain Carney: model 4.4% vs market 8.9% (-4.5 points)Captain Carney-4.5Gucci Vision: model 1.2% vs market 3.8% (-2.6 points)Gucci Vision-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Forum30.0%26.7%+3.4
Total Silence29.9%22.9%+7.1
Fanti23.8%20.0%+3.8
Out Flat10.6%17.8%-7.1
Captain Carney4.4%8.9%-4.5
Gucci Vision1.2%3.8%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 531462
🎯 Longshots: 531462
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,400
Win:3Renewed (7/2) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +26%
Place:7Fortheloveofbonnie (5/1) 24% · fair 3-1 overlay +61%
Show:8Tier Ones Legacy (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:6Moody River (4/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -57%, 5Smartasset (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 2Holiday Musical (3/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -70%
Rest of field:1Pop's Girl (10/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -55%, 4Emerald Eyes (10/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -59%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Renewed — 26.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Renewed26.5% ◀Fortheloveofbonnie — 24.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Fortheloveofbonnie24.3%Tier Ones Legacy — 12.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Tier Ones Legacy12.7%Moody River — 9.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Moody River9.8%Smartasset — 9.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Smartasset9.4%Holiday Musical — 9.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Holiday Musical9.1%Pop'S Girl — 4.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Pop'S Girl4.3%Emerald Eyes — 3.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Emerald Eyes3.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Renewed26.5%3.5/1
Fortheloveofbonnie24.3%5/1
Tier Ones Legacy12.7%6/1
Moody River9.8%4/1
Smartasset9.4%8/1
Holiday Musical9.1%3/1
Pop'S Girl4.3%10/1
Emerald Eyes3.9%10/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRenewed: model 26.5% vs market 17.4% (+9.0 points)Renewed+9.0Fortheloveofbonnie: model 24.3% vs market 13.1% (+11.3 points)Fortheloveofbonnie+11.3Tier Ones Legacy: model 12.7% vs market 11.2% (+1.5 points)Tier Ones Legacy+1.5Moody River: model 9.8% vs market 15.7% (-5.9 points)Moody River-5.9Smartasset: model 9.4% vs market 8.7% (+0.6 points)Smartasset+0.6Holiday Musical: model 9.1% vs market 19.6% (-10.5 points)Holiday Musical-10.5Pop'S Girl: model 4.3% vs market 7.1% (-2.9 points)Pop'S Girl-2.9Emerald Eyes: model 3.9% vs market 7.1% (-3.2 points)Emerald Eyes-3.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Renewed26.5%17.4%+9.0
Fortheloveofbonnie24.3%13.1%+11.3
Tier Ones Legacy12.7%11.2%+1.5
Moody River9.8%15.7%-5.9
Smartasset9.4%8.7%+0.6
Holiday Musical9.1%19.6%-10.5
Pop'S Girl4.3%7.1%-2.9
Emerald Eyes3.9%7.1%-3.2
🌧️ Off-track: 372685
🎯 Longshots: 37518246
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,800
Win:4Too Much Tuesday (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:5Right Trappe (3/1) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:9Crackle (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -36%
Other contenders:3Wicca Wisdom (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 8Mali Bali (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 1Lubu (20/1) 4% · fair 45-2
Rest of field:7Blazing Zenna (10/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -61%, 6Sacred Connection (12/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -55%, 2Magic Palace (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -57%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Too Much Tuesday — 26.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Too Much Tuesday26.8% ◀Right Trappe — 24.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Right Trappe24.7%Crackle — 15.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Crackle15.4%Wicca Wisdom — 11.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Wicca Wisdom11.2%Mali Bali — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Mali Bali7.6%Lubu — 4.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Lubu4.2%Blazing Zenna — 3.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Blazing Zenna3.8%Sacred Connection — 3.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Sacred Connection3.6%Magic Palace — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Magic Palace2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Too Much Tuesday26.8%2.5/1
Right Trappe24.7%3/1
Crackle15.4%3.5/1
Wicca Wisdom11.2%6/1
Mali Bali7.6%8/1
Lubu4.2%20/1
Blazing Zenna3.8%10/1
Sacred Connection3.6%12/1
Magic Palace2.8%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherToo Much Tuesday: model 26.8% vs market 22.2% (+4.6 points)Too Much Tuesday+4.6Right Trappe: model 24.7% vs market 19.4% (+5.3 points)Right Trappe+5.3Crackle: model 15.4% vs market 17.2% (-1.9 points)Crackle-1.9Wicca Wisdom: model 11.2% vs market 11.1% (+0.1 points)Wicca Wisdom+0.1Mali Bali: model 7.6% vs market 8.6% (-1.0 points)Mali Bali-1.0Lubu: model 4.2% vs market 3.7% (+0.5 points)Lubu+0.5Blazing Zenna: model 3.8% vs market 7.0% (-3.3 points)Blazing Zenna-3.3Sacred Connection: model 3.6% vs market 6.0% (-2.3 points)Sacred Connection-2.3Magic Palace: model 2.8% vs market 4.8% (-2.0 points)Magic Palace-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Too Much Tuesday26.8%22.2%+4.6
Right Trappe24.7%19.4%+5.3
Crackle15.4%17.2%-1.9
Wicca Wisdom11.2%11.1%+0.1
Mali Bali7.6%8.6%-1.0
Lubu4.2%3.7%+0.5
Blazing Zenna3.8%7.0%-3.3
Sacred Connection3.6%6.0%-2.3
Magic Palace2.8%4.8%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 459387
🎯 Longshots: 458916327
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #9, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
Win:6Big Prankster (7/2) 27% · fair 5-2 overlay +30%
Place:2Big Bucksalot (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30%
Show:3Skyler (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -33%
Other contenders:7Tonight (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1Doctor Wu (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -41%, 5Classic Richie (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%
Rest of field:8All Jokes Aside (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%, 4My Dominator (10/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -69%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Big Prankster — 27.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Big Prankster27.1% ◀Big Bucksalot — 19.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Big Bucksalot19.0%Skyler — 14.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Skyler14.3%Tonight — 11.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Tonight11.8%Doctor Wu — 10.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Doctor Wu10.6%Classic Richie — 8.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Classic Richie8.0%All Jokes Aside — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1All Jokes Aside6.1%My Dominator — 3.0% win probability, morning line 10/1My Dominator3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Big Prankster27.1%3.5/1
Big Bucksalot19.0%3/1
Skyler14.3%4/1
Tonight11.8%8/1
Doctor Wu10.6%5/1
Classic Richie8.0%6/1
All Jokes Aside6.1%10/1
My Dominator3.0%10/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBig Prankster: model 27.1% vs market 17.4% (+9.7 points)Big Prankster+9.7Big Bucksalot: model 19.0% vs market 19.6% (-0.6 points)Big Bucksalot-0.6Skyler: model 14.3% vs market 15.7% (-1.4 points)Skyler-1.4Tonight: model 11.8% vs market 8.7% (+3.1 points)Tonight+3.1Doctor Wu: model 10.6% vs market 13.1% (-2.5 points)Doctor Wu-2.5Classic Richie: model 8.0% vs market 11.2% (-3.2 points)Classic Richie-3.2All Jokes Aside: model 6.1% vs market 7.1% (-1.0 points)All Jokes Aside-1.0My Dominator: model 3.0% vs market 7.1% (-4.1 points)My Dominator-4.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Big Prankster27.1%17.4%+9.7
Big Bucksalot19.0%19.6%-0.6
Skyler14.3%15.7%-1.4
Tonight11.8%8.7%+3.1
Doctor Wu10.6%13.1%-2.5
Classic Richie8.0%11.2%-3.2
All Jokes Aside6.1%7.1%-1.0
My Dominator3.0%7.1%-4.1
🌧️ Off-track: 623175
🎯 Longshots: 76283514
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:4Tipsy Tulip (5/2) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:3Illuminate (4/1) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +43%
Show:5Coloryoureggs (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -44%
Other contenders:2Cinderbella (7/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -56%, 7Hot Cocoa (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%, 1Striking Lady (8/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -54%
Rest of field:6My Kinda Party (12/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -37%, 8Sushi Q (20/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -59%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tipsy Tulip — 28.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Tipsy Tulip28.4% ◀Illuminate — 26.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Illuminate26.3%Coloryoureggs — 15.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Coloryoureggs15.7%Cinderbella — 11.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Cinderbella11.1%Hot Cocoa — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Hot Cocoa6.1%Striking Lady — 5.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Striking Lady5.4%My Kinda Party — 5.0% win probability, morning line 12/1My Kinda Party5.0%Sushi Q — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Sushi Q2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tipsy Tulip28.4%2.5/1
Illuminate26.3%4/1
Coloryoureggs15.7%3/1
Cinderbella11.1%3.5/1
Hot Cocoa6.1%10/1
Striking Lady5.4%8/1
My Kinda Party5.0%12/1
Sushi Q2.0%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTipsy Tulip: model 28.4% vs market 22.2% (+6.1 points)Tipsy Tulip+6.1Illuminate: model 26.3% vs market 15.6% (+10.7 points)Illuminate+10.7Coloryoureggs: model 15.7% vs market 19.5% (-3.7 points)Coloryoureggs-3.7Cinderbella: model 11.1% vs market 17.3% (-6.2 points)Cinderbella-6.2Hot Cocoa: model 6.1% vs market 7.1% (-1.0 points)Hot Cocoa-1.0Striking Lady: model 5.4% vs market 8.7% (-3.2 points)Striking Lady-3.2My Kinda Party: model 5.0% vs market 6.0% (-1.0 points)My Kinda Party-1.0Sushi Q: model 2.0% vs market 3.7% (-1.7 points)Sushi Q-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tipsy Tulip28.4%22.2%+6.1
Illuminate26.3%15.6%+10.7
Coloryoureggs15.7%19.5%-3.7
Cinderbella11.1%17.3%-6.2
Hot Cocoa6.1%7.1%-1.0
Striking Lady5.4%8.7%-3.2
My Kinda Party5.0%6.0%-1.0
Sushi Q2.0%3.7%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 435217
🎯 Longshots: 42317568
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:6Ripman (5/2) 31% · fair 5-2
Place:10Watch And Wager (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -35%
Show:3Questionable Event (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:4Stanley's Stars (12/1) 11% · fair 17-2 overlay +44%, 8Dynamic Gift (9/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%, 11My Paisan (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 2Lucky Juulz (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -48%
Rest of field:5Rivers Of Wealth (8/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -76%, 7El Mexicano (20/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -42%, 9Mobil Dream Star (20/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -60%, 1Buckeye Mike (20/1) 2% · fair 109-2 underlay -63%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ripman — 30.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Ripman30.8% ◀Watch And Wager — 15.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Watch And Wager15.7%Questionable Event — 13.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Questionable Event13.7%Stanley'S Stars — 10.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Stanley'S Stars10.7%Dynamic Gift — 10.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Dynamic Gift10.6%My Paisan — 5.8% win probability, morning line 10/1My Paisan5.8%Lucky Juulz — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Lucky Juulz3.3%Rivers Of Wealth — 2.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Rivers Of Wealth2.9%El Mexicano — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1El Mexicano2.8%Mobil Dream Star — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Mobil Dream Star2.0%Buckeye Mike — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Buckeye Mike1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ripman30.8%2.5/1
Watch And Wager15.7%3.5/1
Questionable Event13.7%6/1
Stanley'S Stars10.7%12/1
Dynamic Gift10.6%4.5/1
My Paisan5.8%10/1
Lucky Juulz3.3%15/1
Rivers Of Wealth2.9%8/1
El Mexicano2.8%20/1
Mobil Dream Star2.0%20/1
Buckeye Mike1.8%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRipman: model 30.8% vs market 21.7% (+9.1 points)Ripman+9.1Watch And Wager: model 15.7% vs market 16.9% (-1.1 points)Watch And Wager-1.1Questionable Event: model 13.7% vs market 10.8% (+2.8 points)Questionable Event+2.8Stanley'S Stars: model 10.7% vs market 5.8% (+4.9 points)Stanley'S Stars+4.9Dynamic Gift: model 10.6% vs market 13.8% (-3.2 points)Dynamic Gift-3.2My Paisan: model 5.8% vs market 6.9% (-1.1 points)My Paisan-1.1Lucky Juulz: model 3.3% vs market 4.7% (-1.4 points)Lucky Juulz-1.4Rivers Of Wealth: model 2.9% vs market 8.4% (-5.6 points)Rivers Of Wealth-5.6El Mexicano: model 2.8% vs market 3.6% (-0.8 points)El Mexicano-0.8Mobil Dream Star: model 2.0% vs market 3.6% (-1.6 points)Mobil Dream Star-1.6Buckeye Mike: model 1.8% vs market 3.6% (-1.8 points)Buckeye Mike-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ripman30.8%21.7%+9.1
Watch And Wager15.7%16.9%-1.1
Questionable Event13.7%10.8%+2.8
Stanley'S Stars10.7%5.8%+4.9
Dynamic Gift10.6%13.8%-3.2
My Paisan5.8%6.9%-1.1
Lucky Juulz3.3%4.7%-1.4
Rivers Of Wealth2.9%8.4%-5.6
El Mexicano2.8%3.6%-0.8
Mobil Dream Star2.0%3.6%-1.6
Buckeye Mike1.8%3.6%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 6108345
🎯 Longshots: 6111024387591
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,100
Win:5Handsome Fox (5/2)
Place:4Polizon (9/5)
Show:2He's A Pisces (6/1)
Other contenders:6C C's Clear Creek (3/1), 1Grits N Gravy (8/1)
Rest of field:3Lao Way (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 456213
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $12,200
Win:6Halley's Comet (7/2)
Place:3Kukuk (3/1)
Show:5Hot Ice (5/2)
Other contenders:1Divineness (9/2), 4Moore Gold (6/1)
Rest of field:2Against The Time (8/1), 7Enzito (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 536142
🎯 Longshots: 3561247
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:5Forum (2/1)
Place:3Total Silence (5/2)
Show:1Fanti (3/1)
Other contenders:4Out Flat (7/2), 6Captain Carney (8/1)
Rest of field:2Gucci Vision (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531462
🎯 Longshots: 531462
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,400
Win:3Renewed (7/2)
Place:7Fortheloveofbonnie (5/1)
Show:8Tier Ones Legacy (6/1)
Other contenders:6Moody River (4/1), 2Holiday Musical (3/1), 5Smartasset (8/1)
Rest of field:1Pop's Girl (10/1), 4Emerald Eyes (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 327685
🎯 Longshots: 37518246
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,800
Win:4Too Much Tuesday (5/2)
Place:5Right Trappe (3/1)
Show:9Crackle (7/2)
Other contenders:3Wicca Wisdom (6/1), 8Mali Bali (8/1), 1Lubu (20/1)
Rest of field:6Sacred Connection (12/1), 7Blazing Zenna (10/1), 2Magic Palace (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 459387
🎯 Longshots: 458916327
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #9, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
Win:6Big Prankster (7/2)
Place:7Tonight (8/1)
Show:2Big Bucksalot (3/1)
Other contenders:3Skyler (4/1), 1Doctor Wu (5/1), 5Classic Richie (6/1)
Rest of field:8All Jokes Aside (10/1), 4My Dominator (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 623157
🎯 Longshots: 76283514
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:4Tipsy Tulip (5/2)
Place:3Illuminate (4/1)
Show:2Cinderbella (7/2)
Other contenders:5Coloryoureggs (3/1), 6My Kinda Party (12/1), 1Striking Lady (8/1)
Rest of field:7Hot Cocoa (10/1), 8Sushi Q (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453217
🎯 Longshots: 42317568
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:6Ripman (5/2)
Place:8Dynamic Gift (9/2)
Show:10Watch And Wager (7/2)
Other contenders:11My Paisan (10/1), 3Questionable Event (6/1), 2Lucky Juulz (15/1), 7El Mexicano (20/1)
Rest of field:4Stanley's Stars (12/1), 5Rivers Of Wealth (8/1), 1Buckeye Mike (20/1), 9Mobil Dream Star (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 61083115
🎯 Longshots: 6111024387591
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #10, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #5 over #3 ($1 straight; box #5-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #3, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #9, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #7, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #6 over #10 ($1 straight; box #6-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #6, #3, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,100
Win:4Polizon (9/5)
Place:5Handsome Fox (5/2)
Show:2He's A Pisces (6/1)
Other contenders:6C C's Clear Creek (3/1), 1Grits N Gravy (8/1)
Rest of field:3Lao Way (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 456213
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $12,200
Win:6Halley's Comet (7/2)
Place:3Kukuk (3/1)
Show:5Hot Ice (5/2)
Other contenders:4Moore Gold (6/1), 1Divineness (9/2)
Rest of field:2Against The Time (8/1), 7Enzito (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 536142
🎯 Longshots: 3561247
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:3Total Silence (5/2)
Place:5Forum (2/1)
Show:1Fanti (3/1)
Other contenders:4Out Flat (7/2), 6Captain Carney (8/1)
Rest of field:2Gucci Vision (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 351462
🎯 Longshots: 531462
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,400
Win:7Fortheloveofbonnie (5/1)
Place:3Renewed (7/2)
Show:8Tier Ones Legacy (6/1)
Other contenders:6Moody River (4/1), 2Holiday Musical (3/1), 5Smartasset (8/1)
Rest of field:1Pop's Girl (10/1), 4Emerald Eyes (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372685
🎯 Longshots: 37518246
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,800
Win:9Crackle (7/2)
Place:4Too Much Tuesday (5/2)
Show:5Right Trappe (3/1)
Other contenders:3Wicca Wisdom (6/1), 8Mali Bali (8/1), 1Lubu (20/1)
Rest of field:2Magic Palace (15/1), 7Blazing Zenna (10/1), 6Sacred Connection (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 495387
🎯 Longshots: 458916327
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #4, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
Win:7Tonight (8/1)
Place:6Big Prankster (7/2)
Show:3Skyler (4/1)
Other contenders:2Big Bucksalot (3/1), 1Doctor Wu (5/1), 5Classic Richie (6/1)
Rest of field:8All Jokes Aside (10/1), 4My Dominator (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 623715
🎯 Longshots: 76283514
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:4Tipsy Tulip (5/2)
Place:3Illuminate (4/1)
Show:5Coloryoureggs (3/1)
Other contenders:2Cinderbella (7/2), 7Hot Cocoa (10/1), 6My Kinda Party (12/1)
Rest of field:1Striking Lady (8/1), 8Sushi Q (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 452371
🎯 Longshots: 42317568
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:11My Paisan (10/1)
Place:6Ripman (5/2)
Show:2Lucky Juulz (15/1)
Other contenders:10Watch And Wager (7/2), 8Dynamic Gift (9/2), 3Questionable Event (6/1), 7El Mexicano (20/1)
Rest of field:4Stanley's Stars (12/1), 5Rivers Of Wealth (8/1), 1Buckeye Mike (20/1), 9Mobil Dream Star (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 61083112
🎯 Longshots: 6111024387591
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #6, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,100
Win:4Polizon (9/5)
Place:5Handsome Fox (5/2)
Show:2He's A Pisces (6/1)
Other contenders:3Lao Way (10/1), 6C C's Clear Creek (3/1)
Rest of field:1Grits N Gravy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 456213
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $12,200
Win:5Hot Ice (5/2)
Place:6Halley's Comet (7/2)
Show:3Kukuk (3/1)
Other contenders:1Divineness (9/2), 4Moore Gold (6/1)
Rest of field:7Enzito (15/1), 2Against The Time (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 536142
🎯 Longshots: 3561247
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:3Total Silence (5/2)
Place:5Forum (2/1)
Show:1Fanti (3/1)
Other contenders:4Out Flat (7/2), 6Captain Carney (8/1)
Rest of field:2Gucci Vision (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531462
🎯 Longshots: 531462
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,400
Win:7Fortheloveofbonnie (5/1)
Place:3Renewed (7/2)
Show:2Holiday Musical (3/1)
Other contenders:5Smartasset (8/1), 6Moody River (4/1), 8Tier Ones Legacy (6/1)
Rest of field:4Emerald Eyes (10/1), 1Pop's Girl (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 327685
🎯 Longshots: 37518246
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,800
Win:4Too Much Tuesday (5/2)
Place:5Right Trappe (3/1)
Show:9Crackle (7/2)
Other contenders:3Wicca Wisdom (6/1), 8Mali Bali (8/1), 1Lubu (20/1)
Rest of field:2Magic Palace (15/1), 6Sacred Connection (12/1), 7Blazing Zenna (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 459387
🎯 Longshots: 458916327
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #9, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $18,400
Win:6Big Prankster (7/2)
Place:7Tonight (8/1)
Show:2Big Bucksalot (3/1)
Other contenders:1Doctor Wu (5/1), 3Skyler (4/1), 5Classic Richie (6/1)
Rest of field:8All Jokes Aside (10/1), 4My Dominator (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 623175
🎯 Longshots: 76283514
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $25,900
Win:4Tipsy Tulip (5/2)
Place:3Illuminate (4/1)
Show:5Coloryoureggs (3/1)
Other contenders:2Cinderbella (7/2), 7Hot Cocoa (10/1), 6My Kinda Party (12/1)
Rest of field:1Striking Lady (8/1), 8Sushi Q (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453217
🎯 Longshots: 42317568
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $33,700
Win:8Dynamic Gift (9/2)
Place:6Ripman (5/2)
Show:3Questionable Event (6/1)
Other contenders:10Watch And Wager (7/2), 11My Paisan (10/1), 4Stanley's Stars (12/1), 2Lucky Juulz (15/1)
Rest of field:7El Mexicano (20/1), 5Rivers Of Wealth (8/1), 1Buckeye Mike (20/1), 9Mobil Dream Star (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 68103114
🎯 Longshots: 6111024387591
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #4,#5 (73%) / R2: #6,#3,#5 (72%) / R3: #5,#3,#1 (84%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 44%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #6,#3,#5 (72%) / R3: #5,#3,#1 (84%) / R4: #3,#7,#8 (63%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 38%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #5,#3,#1 (84%) / R4: #3,#7,#8 (63%) / R5: #4,#5,#9 (67%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #4,#5,#9 (67%) / R6: #6,#2,#3 (60%) / R7: #4,#3,#5 (70%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #4,#5 (73%) / R2: #6,#3,#5 (72%) / R3: #5,#3,#1 (84%) / R4: #3,#7,#8 (63%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #6,#3,#5 (72%) / R3: #5,#3,#1 (84%) / R4: #3,#7,#8 (63%) / R5: #4,#5,#9 (67%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AGAINST THE TIMEALL JOKES ASIDEBIG BUCKSALOTBIG PRANKSTERBLAZING ZENNA
C C'S CLEAR CREEKCAPTAIN CARNEYCINDERBELLACLASSIC RICHIECOLORYOUREGGS
DIVINENESSDOCTOR WUDYNAMIC GIFTEL MEXICANOEMERALD EYES
FANTIFORTHELOVEOFBONNIEFORUMGRITS N GRAVYGUCCI VISION
HANDSOME FOXHE'S A PISCESHOLIDAY MUSICALHOT COCOAHOT ICE
KUKUKLAO WAYLUBULUCKY JUULZMAGIC PALACE
MOBIL DREAM STARMOODY RIVERMOORE GOLDMY DOMINATORMY KINDA PARTY
OUT FLATPOLIZONPOP'S GIRLQUESTIONABLE EVENTRENEWED
RIPMANRIVERS OF WEALTHSACRED CONNECTIONSKYLERSMARTASSET
STRIKING LADYSUSHI QTIER ONES LEGACYTIPSY TULIPTONIGHT
TOTAL SILENCEWATCH AND WAGERWICCA WISDOM

 


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