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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Penn National, November 6, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Penn National — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 131 graded races at Penn National, 2026-08-18 to 2026-11-04.

0%24%47%71%94%Our top pick: 75.6% from 131 racesOur top pick75.6%Morning-line favourite: 71.0% from 131 racesMorning-line favourite71.0%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick75.6%131
Morning-line favourite71.0%131
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $22,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1My Lizzy Lou (8/5)
Place:2Smart Philly (5/2)
Show:3Inanoceanoflove (7/2)
Other contenders:5Pasoria (5/1), 4Bidibidibombom (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12354
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $27,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Sassy Princess (9/5)
Place:2Joyous Song (5/2)
Show:4Sheherhers (7/2)
Other contenders:5Sadie's Grace (5/1), 1Song To Remember (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32451
🎯 Longshots: 32451
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Bruder (2/1)
Place:3The Judge And Jury (3/1)
Show:6Inter Miami (4/1)
Other contenders:1Patton's Tizzy (6/1), 7Spinning Musician (6/1)
Rest of field:5My Detroit City (8/1), 2Mogalu (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436175
🎯 Longshots: 4351267
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1The Feisty One (3/1)
Place:3Tempting Lady (4/1)
Show:4Sonadora Girl (9/2)
Other contenders:5Calvary Kat (5/1), 2Maggie K (5/2)
Rest of field:6Warrior's Miss (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 134256
🎯 Longshots: 134256
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Youbetterbejoking (2/1)
Place:4Fiddling Felix (4/1)
Show:6Tims (3/1)
Other contenders:5Run Happy Pappy (9/2), 2Freedom Maker (9/2)
Rest of field:3Bronx Boys (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146523
🎯 Longshots: 134652
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · HR · Purse $17,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Alder (2/1)
Place:5Mugatu (4/1)
Show:4Kalahari Not Sorry (3/1)
Other contenders:6Preach It Warrior (6/1), 1Capo (9/2)
Rest of field:2Guitar Money (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345612
🎯 Longshots: 325416
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Bigdaddysboy (5/2)
Place:8Into It (4/1)
Show:2Tallahatchiebridge (6/1)
Other contenders:6Tactical Humor (5/1), 3Agarramesipuedes (8/1), 7Makabim (8/1)
Rest of field:4Bangkok Bob (8/1), 5Cove Bay Boy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 182637
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Penn National — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 79 graded races at Penn National, 2026-10-07 to 2026-11-04.

0%24%48%72%97%Our top pick: 77.2% from 79 racesOur top pick77.2%Morning-line favourite: 72.2% from 79 racesMorning-line favourite72.2%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick77.2%79
Morning-line favourite72.2%79
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:1My Lizzy Lou (8/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -36%
Place:3Inanoceanoflove (7/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:2Smart Philly (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -31%
Other contenders:5Pasoria (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1, 4Bidibidibombom (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -38%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

My Lizzy Lou — 28.5% win probability, morning line 1.6/1My Lizzy Lou28.5% ◀Inanoceanoflove — 22.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Inanoceanoflove22.7%Smart Philly — 21.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Smart Philly21.6%Pasoria — 16.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Pasoria16.2%Bidibidibombom — 11.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Bidibidibombom11.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
My Lizzy Lou28.5%1.6/1
Inanoceanoflove22.7%3.5/1
Smart Philly21.6%2.5/1
Pasoria16.2%5/1
Bidibidibombom11.0%5/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMy Lizzy Lou: model 28.5% vs market 31.4% (-2.9 points)My Lizzy Lou-2.9Inanoceanoflove: model 22.7% vs market 18.1% (+4.6 points)Inanoceanoflove+4.6Smart Philly: model 21.6% vs market 23.3% (-1.7 points)Smart Philly-1.7Pasoria: model 16.2% vs market 13.6% (+2.6 points)Pasoria+2.6Bidibidibombom: model 11.0% vs market 13.6% (-2.6 points)Bidibidibombom-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
My Lizzy Lou28.5%31.4%-2.9
Inanoceanoflove22.7%18.1%+4.6
Smart Philly21.6%23.3%-1.7
Pasoria16.2%13.6%+2.6
Bidibidibombom11.0%13.6%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 12354
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $27,000
Win:3Sassy Princess (9/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:2Joyous Song (5/2) 28% · fair 5-2
Show:4Sheherhers (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29%
Other contenders:5Sadie's Grace (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1, 1Song To Remember (4/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -73%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sassy Princess — 34.3% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Sassy Princess34.3% ◀Joyous Song — 27.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Joyous Song27.8%Sheherhers — 16.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Sheherhers16.9%Sadie'S Grace — 14.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Sadie'S Grace14.7%Song To Remember — 6.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Song To Remember6.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sassy Princess34.3%1.8/1
Joyous Song27.8%2.5/1
Sheherhers16.9%3.5/1
Sadie'S Grace14.7%5/1
Song To Remember6.3%4/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSassy Princess: model 34.3% vs market 29.0% (+5.3 points)Sassy Princess+5.3Joyous Song: model 27.8% vs market 23.2% (+4.6 points)Joyous Song+4.6Sheherhers: model 16.9% vs market 18.0% (-1.1 points)Sheherhers-1.1Sadie'S Grace: model 14.7% vs market 13.5% (+1.1 points)Sadie'S Grace+1.1Song To Remember: model 6.3% vs market 16.2% (-9.9 points)Song To Remember-9.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sassy Princess34.3%29.0%+5.3
Joyous Song27.8%23.2%+4.6
Sheherhers16.9%18.0%-1.1
Sadie'S Grace14.7%13.5%+1.1
Song To Remember6.3%16.2%-9.9
🌧️ Off-track: 32451
🎯 Longshots: 32451
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:4Bruder (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -26%
Place:3The Judge And Jury (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:6Inter Miami (4/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -27%
Other contenders:7Spinning Musician (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 1Patton's Tizzy (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%
Rest of field:5My Detroit City (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -31%, 2Mogalu (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -46%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bruder — 26.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Bruder26.9% ◀The Judge And Jury — 21.7% win probability, morning line 3/1The Judge And Jury21.7%Inter Miami — 15.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Inter Miami15.5%Spinning Musician — 13.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Spinning Musician13.1%Patton'S Tizzy — 9.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Patton'S Tizzy9.7%My Detroit City — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1My Detroit City8.0%Mogalu — 5.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Mogalu5.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bruder26.9%2/1
The Judge And Jury21.7%3/1
Inter Miami15.5%4/1
Spinning Musician13.1%6/1
Patton'S Tizzy9.7%6/1
My Detroit City8.0%8/1
Mogalu5.1%10/1
🌧️ Off-track: 436715
🎯 Longshots: 4351267
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:3Tempting Lady (4/1) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +32%
Place:1The Feisty One (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:5Calvary Kat (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:4Sonadora Girl (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1, 2Maggie K (5/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -67%
Rest of field:6Warrior's Miss (6/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -63%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tempting Lady — 24.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Tempting Lady24.8% ◀The Feisty One — 24.4% win probability, morning line 3/1The Feisty One24.4%Calvary Kat — 16.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Calvary Kat16.6%Sonadora Girl — 16.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Sonadora Girl16.6%Maggie K — 11.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Maggie K11.7%Warrior'S Miss — 5.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Warrior'S Miss5.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tempting Lady24.8%4/1
The Feisty One24.4%3/1
Calvary Kat16.6%5/1
Sonadora Girl16.6%4.5/1
Maggie K11.7%2.5/1
Warrior'S Miss5.9%6/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTempting Lady: model 24.8% vs market 16.3% (+8.5 points)Tempting Lady+8.5The Feisty One: model 24.4% vs market 20.4% (+4.0 points)The Feisty One+4.0Calvary Kat: model 16.6% vs market 13.6% (+3.1 points)Calvary Kat+3.1Sonadora Girl: model 16.6% vs market 14.8% (+1.8 points)Sonadora Girl+1.8Maggie K: model 11.7% vs market 23.3% (-11.6 points)Maggie K-11.6Warrior'S Miss: model 5.9% vs market 11.6% (-5.8 points)Warrior'S Miss-5.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tempting Lady24.8%16.3%+8.5
The Feisty One24.4%20.4%+4.0
Calvary Kat16.6%13.6%+3.1
Sonadora Girl16.6%14.8%+1.8
Maggie K11.7%23.3%-11.6
Warrior'S Miss5.9%11.6%-5.8
🌧️ Off-track: 132456
🎯 Longshots: 134256
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
Win:4Fiddling Felix (4/1) 28% · fair 5-2 overlay +53%
Place:1Youbetterbejoking (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -26%
Show:5Run Happy Pappy (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -27%
Other contenders:2Freedom Maker (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -38%, 6Tims (3/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -63%
Rest of field:3Bronx Boys (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -29%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fiddling Felix — 27.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Fiddling Felix27.6% ◀Youbetterbejoking — 27.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Youbetterbejoking27.1%Run Happy Pappy — 14.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Run Happy Pappy14.0%Freedom Maker — 12.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Freedom Maker12.0%Tims — 11.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Tims11.1%Bronx Boys — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Bronx Boys8.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fiddling Felix27.6%4/1
Youbetterbejoking27.1%2/1
Run Happy Pappy14.0%4.5/1
Freedom Maker12.0%4.5/1
Tims11.1%3/1
Bronx Boys8.2%8/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFiddling Felix: model 27.6% vs market 15.9% (+11.7 points)Fiddling Felix+11.7Youbetterbejoking: model 27.1% vs market 26.5% (+0.6 points)Youbetterbejoking+0.6Run Happy Pappy: model 14.0% vs market 14.5% (-0.5 points)Run Happy Pappy-0.5Freedom Maker: model 12.0% vs market 14.5% (-2.4 points)Freedom Maker-2.4Tims: model 11.1% vs market 19.9% (-8.8 points)Tims-8.8Bronx Boys: model 8.2% vs market 8.8% (-0.7 points)Bronx Boys-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fiddling Felix27.6%15.9%+11.7
Youbetterbejoking27.1%26.5%+0.6
Run Happy Pappy14.0%14.5%-0.5
Freedom Maker12.0%14.5%-2.4
Tims11.1%19.9%-8.8
Bronx Boys8.2%8.8%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 146523
🎯 Longshots: 134652
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · HR · Purse $17,000
Win:3Alder (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:5Mugatu (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:6Preach It Warrior (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:4Kalahari Not Sorry (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -45%, 1Capo (9/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:2Guitar Money (8/1) 9% · fair 11-1 underlay -26%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Alder — 27.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Alder27.5% ◀Mugatu — 20.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Mugatu20.0%Preach It Warrior — 15.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Preach It Warrior15.6%Kalahari Not Sorry — 15.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Kalahari Not Sorry15.6%Capo — 12.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Capo12.8%Guitar Money — 8.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Guitar Money8.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Alder27.5%2/1
Mugatu20.0%4/1
Preach It Warrior15.6%6/1
Kalahari Not Sorry15.6%3/1
Capo12.8%4.5/1
Guitar Money8.5%8/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAlder: model 27.5% vs market 27.3% (+0.2 points)Alder+0.2Mugatu: model 20.0% vs market 16.4% (+3.6 points)Mugatu+3.6Preach It Warrior: model 15.6% vs market 11.7% (+3.9 points)Preach It Warrior+3.9Kalahari Not Sorry: model 15.6% vs market 20.5% (-4.9 points)Kalahari Not Sorry-4.9Capo: model 12.8% vs market 14.9% (-2.1 points)Capo-2.1Guitar Money: model 8.5% vs market 9.1% (-0.6 points)Guitar Money-0.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Alder27.5%27.3%+0.2
Mugatu20.0%16.4%+3.6
Preach It Warrior15.6%11.7%+3.9
Kalahari Not Sorry15.6%20.5%-4.9
Capo12.8%14.9%-2.1
Guitar Money8.5%9.1%-0.6
🌧️ Off-track: 354612
🎯 Longshots: 325416
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:1Bigdaddysboy (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:8Into It (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:2Tallahatchiebridge (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:6Tactical Humor (5/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -30%, 7Makabim (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 3Agarramesipuedes (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -47%
Rest of field:4Bangkok Bob (8/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -54%, 5Cove Bay Boy (8/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -66%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bigdaddysboy — 29.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Bigdaddysboy29.6% ◀Into It — 16.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Into It16.5%Tallahatchiebridge — 15.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Tallahatchiebridge15.4%Tactical Humor — 12.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Tactical Humor12.3%Makabim — 10.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Makabim10.6%Agarramesipuedes — 6.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Agarramesipuedes6.2%Bangkok Bob — 5.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Bangkok Bob5.5%Cove Bay Boy — 4.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Cove Bay Boy4.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bigdaddysboy29.6%2.5/1
Into It16.5%4/1
Tallahatchiebridge15.4%6/1
Tactical Humor12.3%5/1
Makabim10.6%8/1
Agarramesipuedes6.2%8/1
Bangkok Bob5.5%8/1
Cove Bay Boy4.0%8/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBigdaddysboy: model 29.6% vs market 23.0% (+6.5 points)Bigdaddysboy+6.5Into It: model 16.5% vs market 16.1% (+0.3 points)Into It+0.3Tallahatchiebridge: model 15.4% vs market 11.5% (+3.9 points)Tallahatchiebridge+3.9Tactical Humor: model 12.3% vs market 13.4% (-1.2 points)Tactical Humor-1.2Makabim: model 10.6% vs market 9.0% (+1.6 points)Makabim+1.6Agarramesipuedes: model 6.2% vs market 9.0% (-2.8 points)Agarramesipuedes-2.8Bangkok Bob: model 5.5% vs market 9.0% (-3.5 points)Bangkok Bob-3.5Cove Bay Boy: model 4.0% vs market 9.0% (-4.9 points)Cove Bay Boy-4.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bigdaddysboy29.6%23.0%+6.5
Into It16.5%16.1%+0.3
Tallahatchiebridge15.4%11.5%+3.9
Tactical Humor12.3%13.4%-1.2
Makabim10.6%9.0%+1.6
Agarramesipuedes6.2%9.0%-2.8
Bangkok Bob5.5%9.0%-3.5
Cove Bay Boy4.0%9.0%-4.9
🌧️ Off-track: 182673
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:1My Lizzy Lou (8/5)
Place:3Inanoceanoflove (7/2)
Show:2Smart Philly (5/2)
Other contenders:5Pasoria (5/1), 4Bidibidibombom (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12354
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $27,000
Win:2Joyous Song (5/2)
Place:3Sassy Princess (9/5)
Show:5Sadie's Grace (5/1)
Other contenders:4Sheherhers (7/2), 1Song To Remember (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32451
🎯 Longshots: 32451
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:4Bruder (2/1)
Place:3The Judge And Jury (3/1)
Show:6Inter Miami (4/1)
Other contenders:1Patton's Tizzy (6/1), 7Spinning Musician (6/1)
Rest of field:5My Detroit City (8/1), 2Mogalu (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436175
🎯 Longshots: 4351267
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:1The Feisty One (3/1)
Place:4Sonadora Girl (9/2)
Show:3Tempting Lady (4/1)
Other contenders:5Calvary Kat (5/1), 2Maggie K (5/2)
Rest of field:6Warrior's Miss (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 143256
🎯 Longshots: 134256
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
Win:1Youbetterbejoking (2/1)
Place:4Fiddling Felix (4/1)
Show:5Run Happy Pappy (9/2)
Other contenders:6Tims (3/1), 2Freedom Maker (9/2)
Rest of field:3Bronx Boys (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146523
🎯 Longshots: 134652
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · HR · Purse $17,000
Win:3Alder (2/1)
Place:4Kalahari Not Sorry (3/1)
Show:5Mugatu (4/1)
Other contenders:1Capo (9/2), 6Preach It Warrior (6/1)
Rest of field:2Guitar Money (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345162
🎯 Longshots: 325416
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:1Bigdaddysboy (5/2)
Place:8Into It (4/1)
Show:2Tallahatchiebridge (6/1)
Other contenders:6Tactical Humor (5/1), 7Makabim (8/1), 3Agarramesipuedes (8/1)
Rest of field:4Bangkok Bob (8/1), 5Cove Bay Boy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 182673
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #1 over #8 ($1 straight; box #1-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #8, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:1My Lizzy Lou (8/5)
Place:3Inanoceanoflove (7/2)
Show:2Smart Philly (5/2)
Other contenders:5Pasoria (5/1), 4Bidibidibombom (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12354
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $27,000
Win:2Joyous Song (5/2)
Place:5Sadie's Grace (5/1)
Show:3Sassy Princess (9/5)
Other contenders:4Sheherhers (7/2), 1Song To Remember (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 23541
🎯 Longshots: 32451
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:4Bruder (2/1)
Place:3The Judge And Jury (3/1)
Show:1Patton's Tizzy (6/1)
Other contenders:5My Detroit City (8/1), 7Spinning Musician (6/1)
Rest of field:6Inter Miami (4/1), 2Mogalu (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436175
🎯 Longshots: 4351267
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:4Sonadora Girl (9/2)
Place:5Calvary Kat (5/1)
Show:1The Feisty One (3/1)
Other contenders:2Maggie K (5/2), 3Tempting Lady (4/1)
Rest of field:6Warrior's Miss (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 421356
🎯 Longshots: 134256
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
Win:4Fiddling Felix (4/1)
Place:3Bronx Boys (8/1)
Show:1Youbetterbejoking (2/1)
Other contenders:5Run Happy Pappy (9/2), 6Tims (3/1)
Rest of field:2Freedom Maker (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 146532
🎯 Longshots: 134652
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · HR · Purse $17,000
Win:4Kalahari Not Sorry (3/1)
Place:3Alder (2/1)
Show:5Mugatu (4/1)
Other contenders:2Guitar Money (8/1), 1Capo (9/2)
Rest of field:6Preach It Warrior (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 435126
🎯 Longshots: 325416
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:1Bigdaddysboy (5/2)
Place:6Tactical Humor (5/1)
Show:2Tallahatchiebridge (6/1)
Other contenders:8Into It (4/1), 7Makabim (8/1), 4Bangkok Bob (8/1)
Rest of field:5Cove Bay Boy (8/1), 3Agarramesipuedes (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 186274
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:1My Lizzy Lou (8/5)
Place:3Inanoceanoflove (7/2)
Show:2Smart Philly (5/2)
Other contenders:5Pasoria (5/1), 4Bidibidibombom (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12354
🎯 Longshots: 12354
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $27,000
Win:2Joyous Song (5/2)
Place:3Sassy Princess (9/5)
Show:5Sadie's Grace (5/1)
Other contenders:4Sheherhers (7/2), 1Song To Remember (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32451
🎯 Longshots: 32451
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:4Bruder (2/1)
Place:3The Judge And Jury (3/1)
Show:1Patton's Tizzy (6/1)
Other contenders:6Inter Miami (4/1), 7Spinning Musician (6/1)
Rest of field:5My Detroit City (8/1), 2Mogalu (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436175
🎯 Longshots: 4351267
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:1The Feisty One (3/1)
Place:4Sonadora Girl (9/2)
Show:3Tempting Lady (4/1)
Other contenders:5Calvary Kat (5/1), 2Maggie K (5/2)
Rest of field:6Warrior's Miss (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 134256
🎯 Longshots: 134256
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $37,000
Win:4Fiddling Felix (4/1)
Place:1Youbetterbejoking (2/1)
Show:5Run Happy Pappy (9/2)
Other contenders:3Bronx Boys (8/1), 2Freedom Maker (9/2)
Rest of field:6Tims (3/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 145623
🎯 Longshots: 134652
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · HR · Purse $17,000
Win:3Alder (2/1)
Place:5Mugatu (4/1)
Show:4Kalahari Not Sorry (3/1)
Other contenders:1Capo (9/2), 6Preach It Warrior (6/1)
Rest of field:2Guitar Money (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345162
🎯 Longshots: 325416
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:1Bigdaddysboy (5/2)
Place:2Tallahatchiebridge (6/1)
Show:8Into It (4/1)
Other contenders:6Tactical Humor (5/1), 7Makabim (8/1), 3Agarramesipuedes (8/1)
Rest of field:4Bangkok Bob (8/1), 5Cove Bay Boy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 182673
🎯 Longshots: 17823645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #1,#3,#2 (73%) / R2: #3,#2 (62%) / R3: #4,#3,#6 (64%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#2 (62%) / R3: #4,#3,#6 (64%) / R4: #3,#1,#5 (66%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #4,#3,#6 (64%) / R4: #3,#1,#5 (66%) / R5: #4,#1,#5 (69%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #3,#1,#5 (66%) / R5: #4,#1,#5 (69%) / R6: #3,#5,#6 (63%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #1,#3,#2 (73%) / R2: #3,#2 (62%) / R3: #4,#3,#6 (64%) / R4: #3,#1,#5 (66%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#2 (62%) / R3: #4,#3,#6 (64%) / R4: #3,#1,#5 (66%) / R5: #4,#1,#5 (69%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AGARRAMESIPUEDESALDERBANGKOK BOBBIDIBIDIBOMBOMBIGDADDYSBOY
BRUDERCALVARY KATCAPOCOVE BAY BOYFIDDLING FELIX
GUITAR MONEYINANOCEANOFLOVEINTER MIAMIINTO ITJOYOUS SONG
MAGGIE KMAKABIMMOGALUMUGATUMY DETROIT CITY
PASORIAPATTON'S TIZZYPREACH IT WARRIORRUN HAPPY PAPPYSADIE'S GRACE
SHEHERHERSSMART PHILLYSONADORA GIRLSONG TO REMEMBERSPINNING MUSICIAN
TALLAHATCHIEBRIDGETEMPTING LADYTHE FEISTY ONETHE JUDGE AND JURYTIMS
YOUBETTERBEJOKING

 


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