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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Horseshoe Indianapolis, November 10, 2026

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AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
IND7Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#7 – Tiz Wine Time4 scratch(es)

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 6 of today's 9 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (4,492 graded races), the races where they agreed won 37.3% of the time against 29.4% where they did not.

Today's agreement races — IND 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 347 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-08-18 to 2026-11-06.

0%10%20%29%39%Our top pick: 31.4% from 347 racesOur top pick31.4%Morning-line favourite: 28.0% from 347 racesMorning-line favourite28.0%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.4%347
Morning-line favourite28.0%347
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Hitherto (9/5)
Place:6Amani's Music (3/1)
Show:7Italianvisa (3/1)
Other contenders:3Simone (9/2), 5Heaven's Hope (12/1)
Rest of field:1Missys Maybaby (12/1), 4Alqab (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 267354
🎯 Longshots: 2765341
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Blazing Freedom (9/5)
Place:3Jordans Deal (4/1)
Show:4More Sweets (7/2)
Other contenders:7Cavatelli (9/2), 6B On The Loose (6/1)
Rest of field:2High Dollar Dolly (10/1), 5What About Now (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 134762
🎯 Longshots: 1352476
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Tiz Eddie (6/5)
Place:4Sleepy (7/2)
Show:6Goldwyn (4/1)
Other contenders:5Molly's Town (6/1), 1Illegal Contact (5/1)
Rest of field:2Win Me Over (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346512
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:13She Ran (9/5)
Place:7Velvet Crown (5/1)
Show:5Hot Dawg (4/1)
Other contenders:10Ninetales (4/1), 8Underestimated (6/1), 1Miss Byerley (6/1), 12Furious Angel (8/1)
Rest of field:9Delightful Beauty (20/1), 11Tigra (12/1), 3Mesdemon (25/1), 2Sovereign Stride (20/1), 6Oh Bonita (25/1), 4Murasaki (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13571081
🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #5, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:4Fancy Fairlane (6/5)
Place:1Monster Max (7/2)
Show:7Chocolate Moose (4/1)
Other contenders:2Stranger's Church (5/1), 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1)
Rest of field:3Texas Free (10/1), 5Gdoubleyou (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 417236
🎯 Longshots: 4613725
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:12Culture War (3/1)
Place:7Mi Compadre (9/2)
Show:2Midnite In Finley (5/1)
Other contenders:4Moral Man (9/2), 5Playonwords (6/1), 10Knicks N Stones (6/1), 9Garryowen (10/1)
Rest of field:3Somethintobelieven (12/1), 6Winery (20/1), 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1), 8Adam Five Oh (25/1), 1Only Frank Knows (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12724510
🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Spooky Ridge (9/2)
Place:7Tiz Wine Time (9/2)
Show:4Jack's Summer (5/1)
Other contenders:2Instilled Zip (6/1), 3Country Embrace (8/1), 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1), 12Kaboom (8/1)
Rest of field:13Pay Me Later (15/1), 8Swiss Meringue (6/1), 5Innisfree Lass (15/1), 10Pink Picture (12/1), 1I Forgot It (12/1), 11Goody Two Socks (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6742312
🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Master Munnings (7/2)
Place:12Follow The Money (5/1)
Show:4Gettysburg Address (8/1)
Other contenders:5Moonrise Drive (4/1), 7Cheesesteak (5/1), 11Fervent Prayer (8/1), 13Stronger Together (8/1)
Rest of field:8Handsoffthegoods (20/1), 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1), 6Vaccinator (15/1), 3Halter Boy (25/1), 2Franchuchie (25/1), 1Parker (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91257411
🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:2Sir Gallivant (5/2)
Place:6Scotty's On Edge (3/1)
Show:8Sweet La Crema (8/1)
Other contenders:1Gin And Whiskey (5/1), 7Juilliard (10/1), 3Healing Waters (5/1)
Rest of field:4Bureau (10/1), 5Tazzy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261837
🎯 Longshots: 28764513
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 254 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-09-08 to 2026-11-06.

0%9%17%26%34%Our top pick: 27.6% from 254 racesOur top pick27.6%Morning-line favourite: 25.2% from 254 racesMorning-line favourite25.2%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick27.6%254
Morning-line favourite25.2%254
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:6Amani's Music (3/1) 29% · fair 5-2 overlay +25%
Place:3Simone (9/2) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:2Hitherto (9/5) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -68%
Other contenders:7Italianvisa (3/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -57%, 4Alqab (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:5Heaven's Hope (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 1Missys Maybaby (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -35%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Amani'S Music — 29.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Amani'S Music29.5% ◀Simone — 20.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Simone20.7%Hitherto — 15.0% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Hitherto15.0%Italianvisa — 12.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Italianvisa12.6%Alqab — 8.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Alqab8.9%Heaven'S Hope — 8.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Heaven'S Hope8.1%Missys Maybaby — 5.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Missys Maybaby5.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Amani'S Music29.5%3/1
Simone20.7%4.5/1
Hitherto15.0%1.8/1
Italianvisa12.6%3/1
Alqab8.9%10/1
Heaven'S Hope8.1%12/1
Missys Maybaby5.1%12/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAmani'S Music: model 29.5% vs market 19.5% (+10.0 points)Amani'S Music+10.0Simone: model 20.7% vs market 14.2% (+6.6 points)Simone+6.6Hitherto: model 15.0% vs market 27.8% (-12.8 points)Hitherto-12.8Italianvisa: model 12.6% vs market 19.5% (-6.8 points)Italianvisa-6.8Alqab: model 8.9% vs market 7.1% (+1.9 points)Alqab+1.9Heaven'S Hope: model 8.1% vs market 6.0% (+2.1 points)Heaven'S Hope+2.1Missys Maybaby: model 5.1% vs market 6.0% (-0.9 points)Missys Maybaby-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Amani'S Music29.5%19.5%+10.0
Simone20.7%14.2%+6.6
Hitherto15.0%27.8%-12.8
Italianvisa12.6%19.5%-6.8
Alqab8.9%7.1%+1.9
Heaven'S Hope8.1%6.0%+2.1
Missys Maybaby5.1%6.0%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 623745
🎯 Longshots: 2765341
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:3Jordans Deal (4/1) 31% · fair 2-1 overlay +82%
Place:1Blazing Freedom (9/5) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -49%
Show:7Cavatelli (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:4More Sweets (7/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -49%, 6B On The Loose (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%
Rest of field:2High Dollar Dolly (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36%, 5What About Now (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Jordans Deal — 31.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Jordans Deal31.2% ◀Blazing Freedom — 22.1% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Blazing Freedom22.1%Cavatelli — 13.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Cavatelli13.5%More Sweets — 12.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1More Sweets12.7%B On The Loose — 9.2% win probability, morning line 6/1B On The Loose9.2%High Dollar Dolly — 6.0% win probability, morning line 10/1High Dollar Dolly6.0%What About Now — 5.3% win probability, morning line 12/1What About Now5.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Jordans Deal31.2%4/1
Blazing Freedom22.1%1.8/1
Cavatelli13.5%4.5/1
More Sweets12.7%3.5/1
B On The Loose9.2%6/1
High Dollar Dolly6.0%10/1
What About Now5.3%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJordans Deal: model 31.2% vs market 15.7% (+15.5 points)Jordans Deal+15.5Blazing Freedom: model 22.1% vs market 28.1% (-5.9 points)Blazing Freedom-5.9Cavatelli: model 13.5% vs market 14.3% (-0.8 points)Cavatelli-0.8More Sweets: model 12.7% vs market 17.5% (-4.8 points)More Sweets-4.8B On The Loose: model 9.2% vs market 11.2% (-2.0 points)B On The Loose-2.0High Dollar Dolly: model 6.0% vs market 7.1% (-1.1 points)High Dollar Dolly-1.1What About Now: model 5.3% vs market 6.0% (-0.8 points)What About Now-0.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Jordans Deal31.2%15.7%+15.5
Blazing Freedom22.1%28.1%-5.9
Cavatelli13.5%14.3%-0.8
More Sweets12.7%17.5%-4.8
B On The Loose9.2%11.2%-2.0
High Dollar Dolly6.0%7.1%-1.1
What About Now5.3%6.0%-0.8
🌧️ Off-track: 134762
🎯 Longshots: 1352476
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Tiz Eddie (6/5) 38% · fair 3-2 underlay -27%
Place:4Sleepy (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:6Goldwyn (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -39%
Other contenders:5Molly's Town (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 1Illegal Contact (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -44%
Rest of field:2Win Me Over (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -32%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tiz Eddie — 38.0% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Tiz Eddie38.0% ◀Sleepy — 18.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Sleepy18.2%Goldwyn — 13.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Goldwyn13.3%Molly'S Town — 12.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Molly'S Town12.6%Illegal Contact — 10.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Illegal Contact10.1%Win Me Over — 7.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Win Me Over7.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tiz Eddie38.0%1.2/1
Sleepy18.2%3.5/1
Goldwyn13.3%4/1
Molly'S Town12.6%6/1
Illegal Contact10.1%5/1
Win Me Over7.8%8/1
🌧️ Off-track: 346152
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:7Velvet Crown (5/1) 27% · fair 5-2 overlay +86%
Place:13She Ran (9/5) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -50%
Show:5Hot Dawg (4/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -36%
Other contenders:10Ninetales (4/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -58%, 8Underestimated (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 1Miss Byerley (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%, 12Furious Angel (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -46%
Rest of field:11Tigra (12/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -75%, 9Delightful Beauty (20/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -61%, 3Mesdemon (25/1) 1% · fair 181-2 underlay -72%, 6Oh Bonita (25/1) 1% · fair 203-2 underlay -75%, 2Sovereign Stride (20/1) 0% · fair 435-2 underlay -91%, 4Murasaki (25/1) 0% · fair 615-2 underlay -92%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Velvet Crown — 27.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Velvet Crown27.1% ◀She Ran — 21.8% win probability, morning line 1.8/1She Ran21.8%Hot Dawg — 13.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Hot Dawg13.8%Ninetales — 9.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Ninetales9.5%Underestimated — 7.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Underestimated7.7%Miss Byerley — 6.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Miss Byerley6.9%Furious Angel — 6.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Furious Angel6.3%Tigra — 2.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Tigra2.1%Delightful Beauty — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Delightful Beauty1.9%Mesdemon — 1.1% win probability, morning line 25/1Mesdemon1.1%Oh Bonita — 1.0% win probability, morning line 25/1Oh Bonita1.0%Sovereign Stride — 0.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Sovereign Stride0.5%Murasaki — 0.3% win probability, morning line 25/1Murasaki0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Velvet Crown27.1%5/1
She Ran21.8%1.8/1
Hot Dawg13.8%4/1
Ninetales9.5%4/1
Underestimated7.7%6/1
Miss Byerley6.9%6/1
Furious Angel6.3%8/1
Tigra2.1%12/1
Delightful Beauty1.9%20/1
Mesdemon1.1%25/1
Oh Bonita1.0%25/1
Sovereign Stride0.5%20/1
Murasaki0.3%25/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVelvet Crown: model 27.1% vs market 10.4% (+16.8 points)Velvet Crown+16.8She Ran: model 21.8% vs market 22.2% (-0.4 points)She Ran-0.4Hot Dawg: model 13.8% vs market 12.4% (+1.3 points)Hot Dawg+1.3Ninetales: model 9.5% vs market 12.4% (-3.0 points)Ninetales-3.0Underestimated: model 7.7% vs market 8.9% (-1.2 points)Underestimated-1.2Miss Byerley: model 6.9% vs market 8.9% (-1.9 points)Miss Byerley-1.9Furious Angel: model 6.3% vs market 6.9% (-0.6 points)Furious Angel-0.6Tigra: model 2.1% vs market 4.8% (-2.7 points)Tigra-2.7Delightful Beauty: model 1.9% vs market 3.0% (-1.0 points)Delightful Beauty-1.0Mesdemon: model 1.1% vs market 2.4% (-1.3 points)Mesdemon-1.3Oh Bonita: model 1.0% vs market 2.4% (-1.4 points)Oh Bonita-1.4Sovereign Stride: model 0.5% vs market 3.0% (-2.5 points)Sovereign Stride-2.5Murasaki: model 0.3% vs market 2.4% (-2.1 points)Murasaki-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Velvet Crown27.1%10.4%+16.8
She Ran21.8%22.2%-0.4
Hot Dawg13.8%12.4%+1.3
Ninetales9.5%12.4%-3.0
Underestimated7.7%8.9%-1.2
Miss Byerley6.9%8.9%-1.9
Furious Angel6.3%6.9%-0.6
Tigra2.1%4.8%-2.7
Delightful Beauty1.9%3.0%-1.0
Mesdemon1.1%2.4%-1.3
Oh Bonita1.0%2.4%-1.4
Sovereign Stride0.5%3.0%-2.5
Murasaki0.3%2.4%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 13751081
🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #13, #5, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:4Fancy Fairlane (6/5) 36% · fair 2-1 underlay -31%
Place:1Monster Max (7/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:7Chocolate Moose (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -27%
Other contenders:2Stranger's Church (5/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -42%, 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -28%
Rest of field:3Texas Free (10/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -52%, 5Gdoubleyou (12/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -59%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fancy Fairlane — 36.4% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Fancy Fairlane36.4% ◀Monster Max — 24.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Monster Max24.2%Chocolate Moose — 15.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Chocolate Moose15.5%Stranger'S Church — 10.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Stranger'S Church10.4%Diamnd Con Suerte — 5.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Diamnd Con Suerte5.6%Texas Free — 4.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Texas Free4.6%Gdoubleyou — 3.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Gdoubleyou3.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fancy Fairlane36.4%1.2/1
Monster Max24.2%3.5/1
Chocolate Moose15.5%4/1
Stranger'S Church10.4%5/1
Diamnd Con Suerte5.6%12/1
Texas Free4.6%10/1
Gdoubleyou3.3%12/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFancy Fairlane: model 36.4% vs market 35.3% (+1.1 points)Fancy Fairlane+1.1Monster Max: model 24.2% vs market 17.3% (+7.0 points)Monster Max+7.0Chocolate Moose: model 15.5% vs market 15.5% (-0.0 points)Chocolate Moose-0.0Stranger'S Church: model 10.4% vs market 12.9% (-2.5 points)Stranger'S Church-2.5Diamnd Con Suerte: model 5.6% vs market 6.0% (-0.3 points)Diamnd Con Suerte-0.3Texas Free: model 4.6% vs market 7.1% (-2.4 points)Texas Free-2.4Gdoubleyou: model 3.3% vs market 6.0% (-2.7 points)Gdoubleyou-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fancy Fairlane36.4%35.3%+1.1
Monster Max24.2%17.3%+7.0
Chocolate Moose15.5%15.5%-0.0
Stranger'S Church10.4%12.9%-2.5
Diamnd Con Suerte5.6%6.0%-0.3
Texas Free4.6%7.1%-2.4
Gdoubleyou3.3%6.0%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 417236
🎯 Longshots: 4613725
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080
Win:12Culture War (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -34%
Place:4Moral Man (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:7Mi Compadre (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:2Midnite In Finley (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 5Playonwords (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%, 10Knicks N Stones (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%, 9Garryowen (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2
Rest of field:3Somethintobelieven (12/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -63%, 6Winery (20/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -50%, 1Only Frank Knows (25/1) 1% · fair 165-2 underlay -70%, 8Adam Five Oh (25/1) 1% · fair 193-2 underlay -74%, 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1) 1% · fair 229-2 underlay -78%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Culture War — 17.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Culture War17.9% ◀Moral Man — 17.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Moral Man17.8%Mi Compadre — 15.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Mi Compadre15.8%Midnite In Finley — 14.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Midnite In Finley14.4%Playonwords — 9.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Playonwords9.3%Knicks N Stones — 8.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Knicks N Stones8.2%Garryowen — 8.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Garryowen8.1%Somethintobelieven — 3.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Somethintobelieven3.0%Winery — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Winery2.4%Only Frank Knows — 1.2% win probability, morning line 25/1Only Frank Knows1.2%Adam Five Oh — 1.0% win probability, morning line 25/1Adam Five Oh1.0%Chef Ray Wiley — 0.9% win probability, morning line 25/1Chef Ray Wiley0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Culture War17.9%3/1
Moral Man17.8%4.5/1
Mi Compadre15.8%4.5/1
Midnite In Finley14.4%5/1
Playonwords9.3%6/1
Knicks N Stones8.2%6/1
Garryowen8.1%10/1
Somethintobelieven3.0%12/1
Winery2.4%20/1
Only Frank Knows1.2%25/1
Adam Five Oh1.0%25/1
Chef Ray Wiley0.9%25/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCulture War: model 17.9% vs market 17.9% (+0.0 points)Culture War+0.0Moral Man: model 17.8% vs market 13.0% (+4.8 points)Moral Man+4.8Mi Compadre: model 15.8% vs market 13.0% (+2.8 points)Mi Compadre+2.8Midnite In Finley: model 14.4% vs market 11.9% (+2.4 points)Midnite In Finley+2.4Playonwords: model 9.3% vs market 10.2% (-1.0 points)Playonwords-1.0Knicks N Stones: model 8.2% vs market 10.2% (-2.0 points)Knicks N Stones-2.0Garryowen: model 8.1% vs market 6.5% (+1.6 points)Garryowen+1.6Somethintobelieven: model 3.0% vs market 5.5% (-2.5 points)Somethintobelieven-2.5Winery: model 2.4% vs market 3.4% (-1.0 points)Winery-1.0Only Frank Knows: model 1.2% vs market 2.8% (-1.6 points)Only Frank Knows-1.6Adam Five Oh: model 1.0% vs market 2.8% (-1.7 points)Adam Five Oh-1.7Chef Ray Wiley: model 0.9% vs market 2.8% (-1.9 points)Chef Ray Wiley-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Culture War17.9%17.9%+0.0
Moral Man17.8%13.0%+4.8
Mi Compadre15.8%13.0%+2.8
Midnite In Finley14.4%11.9%+2.4
Playonwords9.3%10.2%-1.0
Knicks N Stones8.2%10.2%-2.0
Garryowen8.1%6.5%+1.6
Somethintobelieven3.0%5.5%-2.5
Winery2.4%3.4%-1.0
Only Frank Knows1.2%2.8%-1.6
Adam Five Oh1.0%2.8%-1.7
Chef Ray Wiley0.9%2.8%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 12472510
🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:7Tiz Wine Time (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Place:6Spooky Ridge (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Show:4Jack's Summer (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -26%
Other contenders:2Instilled Zip (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -26%, 3Country Embrace (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%, 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 12Kaboom (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -42%
Rest of field:8Swiss Meringue (6/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -67%, 13Pay Me Later (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 5Innisfree Lass (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 10Pink Picture (12/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -48%, 1I Forgot It (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%, 11Goody Two Socks (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tiz Wine Time — 15.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Tiz Wine Time15.8% ◀Spooky Ridge — 14.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Spooky Ridge14.9%Jack'S Summer — 12.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Jack'S Summer12.9%Instilled Zip — 10.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Instilled Zip10.9%Country Embrace — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Country Embrace6.9%Prayer Unbridled — 6.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Prayer Unbridled6.9%Kaboom — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Kaboom6.8%Swiss Meringue — 5.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Swiss Meringue5.2%Pay Me Later — 4.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Pay Me Later4.9%Innisfree Lass — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Innisfree Lass4.8%Pink Picture — 4.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Pink Picture4.1%I Forgot It — 4.0% win probability, morning line 12/1I Forgot It4.0%Goody Two Socks — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Goody Two Socks2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tiz Wine Time15.8%4.5/1
Spooky Ridge14.9%4.5/1
Jack'S Summer12.9%5/1
Instilled Zip10.9%6/1
Country Embrace6.9%8/1
Prayer Unbridled6.9%12/1
Kaboom6.8%8/1
Swiss Meringue5.2%6/1
Pay Me Later4.9%15/1
Innisfree Lass4.8%15/1
Pink Picture4.1%12/1
I Forgot It4.0%12/1
Goody Two Socks2.0%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTiz Wine Time: model 15.8% vs market 12.6% (+3.2 points)Tiz Wine Time+3.2Spooky Ridge: model 14.9% vs market 12.6% (+2.3 points)Spooky Ridge+2.3Jack'S Summer: model 12.9% vs market 11.6% (+1.3 points)Jack'S Summer+1.3Instilled Zip: model 10.9% vs market 9.9% (+1.0 points)Instilled Zip+1.0Country Embrace: model 6.9% vs market 7.7% (-0.8 points)Country Embrace-0.8Prayer Unbridled: model 6.9% vs market 5.3% (+1.5 points)Prayer Unbridled+1.5Kaboom: model 6.8% vs market 7.7% (-0.9 points)Kaboom-0.9Swiss Meringue: model 5.2% vs market 9.9% (-4.7 points)Swiss Meringue-4.7Pay Me Later: model 4.9% vs market 4.3% (+0.5 points)Pay Me Later+0.5Innisfree Lass: model 4.8% vs market 4.3% (+0.4 points)Innisfree Lass+0.4Pink Picture: model 4.1% vs market 5.3% (-1.2 points)Pink Picture-1.2I Forgot It: model 4.0% vs market 5.3% (-1.3 points)I Forgot It-1.3Goody Two Socks: model 2.0% vs market 3.3% (-1.3 points)Goody Two Socks-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tiz Wine Time15.8%12.6%+3.2
Spooky Ridge14.9%12.6%+2.3
Jack'S Summer12.9%11.6%+1.3
Instilled Zip10.9%9.9%+1.0
Country Embrace6.9%7.7%-0.8
Prayer Unbridled6.9%5.3%+1.5
Kaboom6.8%7.7%-0.9
Swiss Meringue5.2%9.9%-4.7
Pay Me Later4.9%4.3%+0.5
Innisfree Lass4.8%4.3%+0.4
Pink Picture4.1%5.3%-1.2
I Forgot It4.0%5.3%-1.3
Goody Two Socks2.0%3.3%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 764283
🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:12Follow The Money (5/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +31%
Place:9Master Munnings (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29%
Show:4Gettysburg Address (8/1) 12% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:7Cheesesteak (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -34%, 5Moonrise Drive (4/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -58%, 11Fervent Prayer (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -40%, 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1) 5% · fair 37-2
Rest of field:13Stronger Together (8/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -61%, 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1) 4% · fair 43-2, 3Halter Boy (25/1) 3% · fair 65-2, 2Franchuchie (25/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -49%, 6Vaccinator (15/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -74%, 1Parker (30/1) 1% · fair 93-1 underlay -68%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Follow The Money — 20.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Follow The Money20.8% ◀Master Munnings — 16.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Master Munnings16.9%Gettysburg Address — 12.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Gettysburg Address12.3%Cheesesteak — 11.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Cheesesteak11.7%Moonrise Drive — 9.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Moonrise Drive9.5%Fervent Prayer — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Fervent Prayer6.9%Verrazanointhesky — 5.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Verrazanointhesky5.1%Stronger Together — 4.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Stronger Together4.6%Handsoffthegoods — 4.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Handsoffthegoods4.5%Halter Boy — 3.0% win probability, morning line 25/1Halter Boy3.0%Franchuchie — 2.0% win probability, morning line 25/1Franchuchie2.0%Vaccinator — 1.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Vaccinator1.7%Parker — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Parker1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Follow The Money20.8%5/1
Master Munnings16.9%3.5/1
Gettysburg Address12.3%8/1
Cheesesteak11.7%5/1
Moonrise Drive9.5%4/1
Fervent Prayer6.9%8/1
Verrazanointhesky5.1%15/1
Stronger Together4.6%8/1
Handsoffthegoods4.5%20/1
Halter Boy3.0%25/1
Franchuchie2.0%25/1
Vaccinator1.7%15/1
Parker1.1%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFollow The Money: model 20.8% vs market 12.2% (+8.6 points)Follow The Money+8.6Master Munnings: model 16.9% vs market 16.2% (+0.7 points)Master Munnings+0.7Gettysburg Address: model 12.3% vs market 8.1% (+4.2 points)Gettysburg Address+4.2Cheesesteak: model 11.7% vs market 12.2% (-0.5 points)Cheesesteak-0.5Moonrise Drive: model 9.5% vs market 14.6% (-5.1 points)Moonrise Drive-5.1Fervent Prayer: model 6.9% vs market 8.1% (-1.2 points)Fervent Prayer-1.2Verrazanointhesky: model 5.1% vs market 4.6% (+0.5 points)Verrazanointhesky+0.5Stronger Together: model 4.6% vs market 8.1% (-3.5 points)Stronger Together-3.5Handsoffthegoods: model 4.5% vs market 3.5% (+1.0 points)Handsoffthegoods+1.0Halter Boy: model 3.0% vs market 2.8% (+0.2 points)Halter Boy+0.2Franchuchie: model 2.0% vs market 2.8% (-0.8 points)Franchuchie-0.8Vaccinator: model 1.7% vs market 4.6% (-2.8 points)Vaccinator-2.8Parker: model 1.1% vs market 2.4% (-1.3 points)Parker-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Follow The Money20.8%12.2%+8.6
Master Munnings16.9%16.2%+0.7
Gettysburg Address12.3%8.1%+4.2
Cheesesteak11.7%12.2%-0.5
Moonrise Drive9.5%14.6%-5.1
Fervent Prayer6.9%8.1%-1.2
Verrazanointhesky5.1%4.6%+0.5
Stronger Together4.6%8.1%-3.5
Handsoffthegoods4.5%3.5%+1.0
Halter Boy3.0%2.8%+0.2
Franchuchie2.0%2.8%-0.8
Vaccinator1.7%4.6%-2.8
Parker1.1%2.4%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 12975411
🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #9, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080
Win:2Sir Gallivant (5/2) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:6Scotty's On Edge (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27%
Show:8Sweet La Crema (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:1Gin And Whiskey (5/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -46%, 3Healing Waters (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -53%, 7Juilliard (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2
Rest of field:4Bureau (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -27%, 5Tazzy (15/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -51%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sir Gallivant — 33.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sir Gallivant33.3% ◀Scotty'S On Edge — 19.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Scotty'S On Edge19.5%Sweet La Crema — 10.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Sweet La Crema10.8%Gin And Whiskey — 9.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Gin And Whiskey9.7%Healing Waters — 8.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Healing Waters8.6%Juilliard — 8.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Juilliard8.1%Bureau — 6.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Bureau6.8%Tazzy — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Tazzy3.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sir Gallivant33.3%2.5/1
Scotty'S On Edge19.5%3/1
Sweet La Crema10.8%8/1
Gin And Whiskey9.7%5/1
Healing Waters8.6%5/1
Juilliard8.1%10/1
Bureau6.8%10/1
Tazzy3.1%15/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSir Gallivant: model 33.3% vs market 23.3% (+10.0 points)Sir Gallivant+10.0Scotty'S On Edge: model 19.5% vs market 20.4% (-0.9 points)Scotty'S On Edge-0.9Sweet La Crema: model 10.8% vs market 9.1% (+1.8 points)Sweet La Crema+1.8Gin And Whiskey: model 9.7% vs market 13.6% (-3.9 points)Gin And Whiskey-3.9Healing Waters: model 8.6% vs market 13.6% (-5.0 points)Healing Waters-5.0Juilliard: model 8.1% vs market 7.4% (+0.6 points)Juilliard+0.6Bureau: model 6.8% vs market 7.4% (-0.6 points)Bureau-0.6Tazzy: model 3.1% vs market 5.1% (-2.0 points)Tazzy-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sir Gallivant33.3%23.3%+10.0
Scotty'S On Edge19.5%20.4%-0.9
Sweet La Crema10.8%9.1%+1.8
Gin And Whiskey9.7%13.6%-3.9
Healing Waters8.6%13.6%-5.0
Juilliard8.1%7.4%+0.6
Bureau6.8%7.4%-0.6
Tazzy3.1%5.1%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 261387
🎯 Longshots: 28764513
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:6Amani's Music (3/1)
Place:2Hitherto (9/5)
Show:3Simone (9/2)
Other contenders:7Italianvisa (3/1), 5Heaven's Hope (12/1)
Rest of field:1Missys Maybaby (12/1), 4Alqab (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 267354
🎯 Longshots: 2765341
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:1Blazing Freedom (9/5)
Place:3Jordans Deal (4/1)
Show:4More Sweets (7/2)
Other contenders:7Cavatelli (9/2), 5What About Now (12/1)
Rest of field:6B On The Loose (6/1), 2High Dollar Dolly (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 134762
🎯 Longshots: 1352476
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Tiz Eddie (6/5)
Place:4Sleepy (7/2)
Show:6Goldwyn (4/1)
Other contenders:5Molly's Town (6/1), 1Illegal Contact (5/1)
Rest of field:2Win Me Over (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346152
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:13She Ran (9/5)
Place:7Velvet Crown (5/1)
Show:5Hot Dawg (4/1)
Other contenders:8Underestimated (6/1), 10Ninetales (4/1), 1Miss Byerley (6/1), 12Furious Angel (8/1)
Rest of field:2Sovereign Stride (20/1), 3Mesdemon (25/1), 11Tigra (12/1), 6Oh Bonita (25/1), 9Delightful Beauty (20/1), 4Murasaki (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13578101
🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:4Fancy Fairlane (6/5)
Place:1Monster Max (7/2)
Show:7Chocolate Moose (4/1)
Other contenders:2Stranger's Church (5/1), 3Texas Free (10/1)
Rest of field:6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1), 5Gdoubleyou (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 417236
🎯 Longshots: 4613725
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080
Win:12Culture War (3/1)
Place:2Midnite In Finley (5/1)
Show:7Mi Compadre (9/2)
Other contenders:10Knicks N Stones (6/1), 4Moral Man (9/2), 5Playonwords (6/1), 9Garryowen (10/1)
Rest of field:3Somethintobelieven (12/1), 6Winery (20/1), 1Only Frank Knows (25/1), 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1), 8Adam Five Oh (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12724105
🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #2, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Jack's Summer (5/1)
Place:7Tiz Wine Time (9/2)
Show:6Spooky Ridge (9/2)
Other contenders:2Instilled Zip (6/1), 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1), 12Kaboom (8/1), 8Swiss Meringue (6/1)
Rest of field:5Innisfree Lass (15/1), 10Pink Picture (12/1), 3Country Embrace (8/1), 13Pay Me Later (15/1), 11Goody Two Socks (20/1), 1I Forgot It (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4762812
🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:9Master Munnings (7/2)
Place:12Follow The Money (5/1)
Show:5Moonrise Drive (4/1)
Other contenders:4Gettysburg Address (8/1), 7Cheesesteak (5/1), 13Stronger Together (8/1), 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1)
Rest of field:10Verrazanointhesky (15/1), 11Fervent Prayer (8/1), 6Vaccinator (15/1), 3Halter Boy (25/1), 2Franchuchie (25/1), 1Parker (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 95127413
🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080
Win:2Sir Gallivant (5/2)
Place:6Scotty's On Edge (3/1)
Show:8Sweet La Crema (8/1)
Other contenders:7Juilliard (10/1), 1Gin And Whiskey (5/1), 3Healing Waters (5/1)
Rest of field:4Bureau (10/1), 5Tazzy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261387
🎯 Longshots: 28764513
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #13 over #5 ($1 straight; box #13-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #13 over #7, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
Race 6AI Exacta: #12 over #7 ($1 straight; box #12-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #12, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #7, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #9 over #12 ($1 straight; box #9-#12 for cover)
Trifecta: #12 over #9, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
69Garryowen10/1—10.9%+19.6%0.49%$0.49
83Halter Boy ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer25/1—3.3%+-13.7%0.00%$0.00
49Delightful Beauty ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.8%+-19.4%0.00%$0.00
66Winery ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.2%+-32.8%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 4 plays:0.5%$0.49
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:6Amani's Music (3/1)
Place:2Hitherto (9/5)
Show:1Missys Maybaby (12/1)
Other contenders:3Simone (9/2), 7Italianvisa (3/1)
Rest of field:5Heaven's Hope (12/1), 4Alqab (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 627315
🎯 Longshots: 2765341
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:1Blazing Freedom (9/5)
Place:5What About Now (12/1)
Show:3Jordans Deal (4/1)
Other contenders:7Cavatelli (9/2), 4More Sweets (7/2)
Rest of field:2High Dollar Dolly (10/1), 6B On The Loose (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 134765
🎯 Longshots: 1352476
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Tiz Eddie (6/5)
Place:4Sleepy (7/2)
Show:6Goldwyn (4/1)
Other contenders:1Illegal Contact (5/1), 5Molly's Town (6/1)
Rest of field:2Win Me Over (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346152
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:13She Ran (9/5)
Place:7Velvet Crown (5/1)
Show:5Hot Dawg (4/1)
Other contenders:8Underestimated (6/1), 1Miss Byerley (6/1), 10Ninetales (4/1), 3Mesdemon (25/1)
Rest of field:12Furious Angel (8/1), 11Tigra (12/1), 9Delightful Beauty (20/1), 6Oh Bonita (25/1), 2Sovereign Stride (20/1), 4Murasaki (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13571081
🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:4Fancy Fairlane (6/5)
Place:1Monster Max (7/2)
Show:7Chocolate Moose (4/1)
Other contenders:2Stranger's Church (5/1), 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1)
Rest of field:3Texas Free (10/1), 5Gdoubleyou (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 417236
🎯 Longshots: 4613725
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080
Win:10Knicks N Stones (6/1)
Place:7Mi Compadre (9/2)
Show:12Culture War (3/1)
Other contenders:4Moral Man (9/2), 9Garryowen (10/1), 2Midnite In Finley (5/1), 5Playonwords (6/1)
Rest of field:3Somethintobelieven (12/1), 6Winery (20/1), 1Only Frank Knows (25/1), 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1), 8Adam Five Oh (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12710425
🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #12, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Jack's Summer (5/1)
Place:3Country Embrace (8/1)
Show:6Spooky Ridge (9/2)
Other contenders:2Instilled Zip (6/1), 7Tiz Wine Time (9/2), 12Kaboom (8/1), 5Innisfree Lass (15/1)
Rest of field:8Swiss Meringue (6/1), 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1), 10Pink Picture (12/1), 13Pay Me Later (15/1), 1I Forgot It (12/1), 11Goody Two Socks (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 647328
🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:9Master Munnings (7/2)
Place:12Follow The Money (5/1)
Show:7Cheesesteak (5/1)
Other contenders:5Moonrise Drive (4/1), 4Gettysburg Address (8/1), 11Fervent Prayer (8/1), 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1)
Rest of field:3Halter Boy (25/1), 13Stronger Together (8/1), 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1), 6Vaccinator (15/1), 2Franchuchie (25/1), 1Parker (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 95127411
🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080
Win:6Scotty's On Edge (3/1)
Place:7Juilliard (10/1)
Show:8Sweet La Crema (8/1)
Other contenders:2Sir Gallivant (5/2), 1Gin And Whiskey (5/1), 3Healing Waters (5/1)
Rest of field:4Bureau (10/1), 5Tazzy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261837
🎯 Longshots: 28764513
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:6Amani's Music (3/1)
Place:3Simone (9/2)
Show:2Hitherto (9/5)
Other contenders:7Italianvisa (3/1), 1Missys Maybaby (12/1)
Rest of field:5Heaven's Hope (12/1), 4Alqab (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263715
🎯 Longshots: 2765341
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:1Blazing Freedom (9/5)
Place:3Jordans Deal (4/1)
Show:7Cavatelli (9/2)
Other contenders:4More Sweets (7/2), 5What About Now (12/1)
Rest of field:6B On The Loose (6/1), 2High Dollar Dolly (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 134765
🎯 Longshots: 1352476
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000
Win:3Tiz Eddie (6/5)
Place:4Sleepy (7/2)
Show:6Goldwyn (4/1)
Other contenders:5Molly's Town (6/1), 1Illegal Contact (5/1)
Rest of field:2Win Me Over (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346152
🎯 Longshots: 346251
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:13She Ran (9/5)
Place:7Velvet Crown (5/1)
Show:5Hot Dawg (4/1)
Other contenders:8Underestimated (6/1), 10Ninetales (4/1), 1Miss Byerley (6/1), 12Furious Angel (8/1)
Rest of field:3Mesdemon (25/1), 11Tigra (12/1), 2Sovereign Stride (20/1), 9Delightful Beauty (20/1), 6Oh Bonita (25/1), 4Murasaki (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13571081
🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240
Win:4Fancy Fairlane (6/5)
Place:1Monster Max (7/2)
Show:7Chocolate Moose (4/1)
Other contenders:2Stranger's Church (5/1), 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1)
Rest of field:3Texas Free (10/1), 5Gdoubleyou (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 417236
🎯 Longshots: 4613725
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 6  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080
Win:7Mi Compadre (9/2)
Place:12Culture War (3/1)
Show:2Midnite In Finley (5/1)
Other contenders:4Moral Man (9/2), 5Playonwords (6/1), 10Knicks N Stones (6/1), 9Garryowen (10/1)
Rest of field:3Somethintobelieven (12/1), 6Winery (20/1), 1Only Frank Knows (25/1), 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1), 8Adam Five Oh (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12742510
🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #12, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:4Jack's Summer (5/1)
Place:2Instilled Zip (6/1)
Show:7Tiz Wine Time (9/2)
Other contenders:9Prayer Unbridled (12/1), 6Spooky Ridge (9/2), 12Kaboom (8/1), 5Innisfree Lass (15/1)
Rest of field:3Country Embrace (8/1), 10Pink Picture (12/1), 8Swiss Meringue (6/1), 13Pay Me Later (15/1), 1I Forgot It (12/1), 11Goody Two Socks (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4726812
🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:12Follow The Money (5/1)
Place:9Master Munnings (7/2)
Show:4Gettysburg Address (8/1)
Other contenders:7Cheesesteak (5/1), 5Moonrise Drive (4/1), 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1), 3Halter Boy (25/1)
Rest of field:13Stronger Together (8/1), 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1), 11Fervent Prayer (8/1), 6Vaccinator (15/1), 2Franchuchie (25/1), 1Parker (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91257413
🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #9, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080
Win:2Sir Gallivant (5/2)
Place:6Scotty's On Edge (3/1)
Show:7Juilliard (10/1)
Other contenders:8Sweet La Crema (8/1), 1Gin And Whiskey (5/1), 4Bureau (10/1)
Rest of field:3Healing Waters (5/1), 5Tazzy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261387
🎯 Longshots: 28764513
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #6,#3,#2 (65%) / R2: #3,#1,#7 (67%) / R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#1,#7 (67%) / R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) / R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) / R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) / R5: #4,#1 (61%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) / R5: #4,#1 (61%) / R6: #12,#4,#7 (52%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#1,#7 (67%) / R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) / R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) / R5: #4,#1 (61%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) / R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) / R5: #4,#1 (61%) / R6: #12,#4,#7 (52%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADAM FIVE OHALQABAMANI'S MUSICB ON THE LOOSEBLAZING FREEDOM
CAVATELLICHEESESTEAKCHEF RAY WILEYCHOCOLATE MOOSECOUNTRY EMBRACE
DELIGHTFUL BEAUTYDIAMND CON SUERTEFANCY FAIRLANEFERVENT PRAYERFOLLOW THE MONEY
FURIOUS ANGELGARRYOWENGDOUBLEYOUGETTYSBURG ADDRESSGIN AND WHISKEY
GOODY TWO SOCKSHALTER BOYHANDSOFFTHEGOODSHEALING WATERSHEAVEN'S HOPE
HITHERTOHOT DAWGI FORGOT ITILLEGAL CONTACTINNISFREE LASS
ITALIANVISAJACK'S SUMMERJORDANS DEALJUILLIARDKABOOM
MASTER MUNNINGSMESDEMONMI COMPADREMIDNITE IN FINLEYMISS BYERLEY
MOLLY'S TOWNMONSTER MAXMOONRISE DRIVEMORAL MANMORE SWEETS
NINETALESOH BONITAONLY FRANK KNOWSPARKERPAY ME LATER
PLAYONWORDSPRAYER UNBRIDLEDSCOTTY'S ON EDGESHE RANSIMONE
SLEEPYSOMETHINTOBELIEVENSOVEREIGN STRIDESPOOKY RIDGESTRANGER'S CHURCH
SWEET LA CREMASWISS MERINGUETAZZYTEXAS FREETIGRA
TIZ WINE TIMEUNDERESTIMATEDVACCINATORVELVET CROWNVERRAZANOINTHESKY
WIN ME OVERWINERY

 


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