AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied
Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.
| Track | Race | Model | New Top Pick | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 7 | Model Algo 2 (Ensemble) | #7 – Tiz Wine Time | 4 scratch(es) |
Where the experts back our strongest pick today
In 6 of today's 9 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (4,492 graded races), the races where they agreed won 37.3% of the time against 29.4% where they did not.
Today's agreement races — IND 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9.
Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate
How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 347 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-08-18 to 2026-11-06.
The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 31.4% | 347 |
| Morning-line favourite | 28.0% | 347 |
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 2Hitherto (9/5) |
| Place: | 6Amani's Music (3/1) |
| Show: | 7Italianvisa (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Simone (9/2), 5Heaven's Hope (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Missys Maybaby (12/1), 4Alqab (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 267354 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2765341 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 1Blazing Freedom (9/5) |
| Place: | 3Jordans Deal (4/1) |
| Show: | 4More Sweets (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7Cavatelli (9/2), 6B On The Loose (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2High Dollar Dolly (10/1), 5What About Now (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 134762 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1352476 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 3Tiz Eddie (6/5) |
| Place: | 4Sleepy (7/2) |
| Show: | 6Goldwyn (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Molly's Town (6/1), 1Illegal Contact (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Win Me Over (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 346512 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 346251 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 13She Ran (9/5) |
| Place: | 7Velvet Crown (5/1) |
| Show: | 5Hot Dawg (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10Ninetales (4/1), 8Underestimated (6/1), 1Miss Byerley (6/1), 12Furious Angel (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Delightful Beauty (20/1), 11Tigra (12/1), 3Mesdemon (25/1), 2Sovereign Stride (20/1), 6Oh Bonita (25/1), 4Murasaki (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 13571081 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #5, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 4Fancy Fairlane (6/5) |
| Place: | 1Monster Max (7/2) |
| Show: | 7Chocolate Moose (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Stranger's Church (5/1), 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Texas Free (10/1), 5Gdoubleyou (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 417236 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4613725 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 12Culture War (3/1) |
| Place: | 7Mi Compadre (9/2) |
| Show: | 2Midnite In Finley (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Moral Man (9/2), 5Playonwords (6/1), 10Knicks N Stones (6/1), 9Garryowen (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Somethintobelieven (12/1), 6Winery (20/1), 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1), 8Adam Five Oh (25/1), 1Only Frank Knows (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12724510 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 6Spooky Ridge (9/2) |
| Place: | 7Tiz Wine Time (9/2) |
| Show: | 4Jack's Summer (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Instilled Zip (6/1), 3Country Embrace (8/1), 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1), 12Kaboom (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 13Pay Me Later (15/1), 8Swiss Meringue (6/1), 5Innisfree Lass (15/1), 10Pink Picture (12/1), 1I Forgot It (12/1), 11Goody Two Socks (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6742312 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 9Master Munnings (7/2) |
| Place: | 12Follow The Money (5/1) |
| Show: | 4Gettysburg Address (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Moonrise Drive (4/1), 7Cheesesteak (5/1), 11Fervent Prayer (8/1), 13Stronger Together (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1), 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1), 6Vaccinator (15/1), 3Halter Boy (25/1), 2Franchuchie (25/1), 1Parker (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 91257411 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| ◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence. | |
| Win: | 2Sir Gallivant (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Scotty's On Edge (3/1) |
| Show: | 8Sweet La Crema (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Gin And Whiskey (5/1), 7Juilliard (10/1), 3Healing Waters (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4Bureau (10/1), 5Tazzy (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 261837 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 28764513 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate
How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 254 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-09-08 to 2026-11-06.
The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 27.6% | 254 |
| Morning-line favourite | 25.2% | 254 |
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 6Amani's Music (3/1) 29% · fair 5-2 overlay +25% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 3Simone (9/2) 21% · fair 4-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 2Hitherto (9/5) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -68% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 7Italianvisa (3/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -57%, 4Alqab (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 5Heaven's Hope (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 1Missys Maybaby (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -35% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 1 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 623745 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 2765341 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 3Jordans Deal (4/1) 31% · fair 2-1 overlay +82% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Blazing Freedom (9/5) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -49% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Cavatelli (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -30% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4More Sweets (7/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -49%, 6B On The Loose (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 2High Dollar Dolly (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36%, 5What About Now (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 2 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 134762 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 1352476 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 3Tiz Eddie (6/5) 38% · fair 3-2 underlay -27% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 4Sleepy (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 6Goldwyn (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -39% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 5Molly's Town (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 1Illegal Contact (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -44% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 2Win Me Over (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -32% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 3 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 346152 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 346251 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 4 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 7Velvet Crown (5/1) 27% · fair 5-2 overlay +86% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 13She Ran (9/5) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 5Hot Dawg (4/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -36% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 10Ninetales (4/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -58%, 8Underestimated (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 1Miss Byerley (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%, 12Furious Angel (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -46% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 11Tigra (12/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -75%, 9Delightful Beauty (20/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -61%, 3Mesdemon (25/1) 1% · fair 181-2 underlay -72%, 6Oh Bonita (25/1) 1% · fair 203-2 underlay -75%, 2Sovereign Stride (20/1) 0% · fair 435-2 underlay -91%, 4Murasaki (25/1) 0% · fair 615-2 underlay -92% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 4 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 13751081 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #13, #5, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 4Fancy Fairlane (6/5) 36% · fair 2-1 underlay -31% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Monster Max (7/2) 24% · fair 3-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Chocolate Moose (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -27% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Stranger's Church (5/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -42%, 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -28% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3Texas Free (10/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -52%, 5Gdoubleyou (12/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -59% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 5 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 417236 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 4613725 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 12Culture War (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -34% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 4Moral Man (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Mi Compadre (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Midnite In Finley (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 5Playonwords (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%, 10Knicks N Stones (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%, 9Garryowen (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3Somethintobelieven (12/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -63%, 6Winery (20/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -50%, 1Only Frank Knows (25/1) 1% · fair 165-2 underlay -70%, 8Adam Five Oh (25/1) 1% · fair 193-2 underlay -74%, 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1) 1% · fair 229-2 underlay -78% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 6 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 12472510 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #4, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 7Tiz Wine Time (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Spooky Ridge (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 4Jack's Summer (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -26% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Instilled Zip (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -26%, 3Country Embrace (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%, 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 12Kaboom (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -42% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 8Swiss Meringue (6/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -67%, 13Pay Me Later (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 5Innisfree Lass (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 10Pink Picture (12/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -48%, 1I Forgot It (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%, 11Goody Two Socks (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 7 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 764283 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 8 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 12Follow The Money (5/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +31% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 9Master Munnings (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 4Gettysburg Address (8/1) 12% · fair 7-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 7Cheesesteak (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -34%, 5Moonrise Drive (4/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -58%, 11Fervent Prayer (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -40%, 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1) 5% · fair 37-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 13Stronger Together (8/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -61%, 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1) 4% · fair 43-2, 3Halter Boy (25/1) 3% · fair 65-2, 2Franchuchie (25/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -49%, 6Vaccinator (15/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -74%, 1Parker (30/1) 1% · fair 93-1 underlay -68% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 8 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 12975411 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #9, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 2Sir Gallivant (5/2) 33% · fair 2-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Scotty's On Edge (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 8Sweet La Crema (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 1Gin And Whiskey (5/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -46%, 3Healing Waters (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -53%, 7Juilliard (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 4Bureau (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -27%, 5Tazzy (15/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -51% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 9 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 261387 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 28764513 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 6Amani's Music (3/1) |
| Place: | 2Hitherto (9/5) |
| Show: | 3Simone (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7Italianvisa (3/1), 5Heaven's Hope (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Missys Maybaby (12/1), 4Alqab (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 267354 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2765341 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| Win: | 1Blazing Freedom (9/5) |
| Place: | 3Jordans Deal (4/1) |
| Show: | 4More Sweets (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7Cavatelli (9/2), 5What About Now (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6B On The Loose (6/1), 2High Dollar Dolly (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 134762 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1352476 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 3Tiz Eddie (6/5) |
| Place: | 4Sleepy (7/2) |
| Show: | 6Goldwyn (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Molly's Town (6/1), 1Illegal Contact (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Win Me Over (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 346152 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 346251 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |
| Win: | 13She Ran (9/5) |
| Place: | 7Velvet Crown (5/1) |
| Show: | 5Hot Dawg (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Underestimated (6/1), 10Ninetales (4/1), 1Miss Byerley (6/1), 12Furious Angel (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Sovereign Stride (20/1), 3Mesdemon (25/1), 11Tigra (12/1), 6Oh Bonita (25/1), 9Delightful Beauty (20/1), 4Murasaki (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 13578101 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 4Fancy Fairlane (6/5) |
| Place: | 1Monster Max (7/2) |
| Show: | 7Chocolate Moose (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Stranger's Church (5/1), 3Texas Free (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1), 5Gdoubleyou (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 417236 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4613725 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 12Culture War (3/1) |
| Place: | 2Midnite In Finley (5/1) |
| Show: | 7Mi Compadre (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 10Knicks N Stones (6/1), 4Moral Man (9/2), 5Playonwords (6/1), 9Garryowen (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Somethintobelieven (12/1), 6Winery (20/1), 1Only Frank Knows (25/1), 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1), 8Adam Five Oh (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12724105 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #2, #7, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| Win: | 4Jack's Summer (5/1) |
| Place: | 7Tiz Wine Time (9/2) |
| Show: | 6Spooky Ridge (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Instilled Zip (6/1), 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1), 12Kaboom (8/1), 8Swiss Meringue (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Innisfree Lass (15/1), 10Pink Picture (12/1), 3Country Embrace (8/1), 13Pay Me Later (15/1), 11Goody Two Socks (20/1), 1I Forgot It (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4762812 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 9Master Munnings (7/2) |
| Place: | 12Follow The Money (5/1) |
| Show: | 5Moonrise Drive (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Gettysburg Address (8/1), 7Cheesesteak (5/1), 13Stronger Together (8/1), 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1), 11Fervent Prayer (8/1), 6Vaccinator (15/1), 3Halter Boy (25/1), 2Franchuchie (25/1), 1Parker (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 95127413 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 2Sir Gallivant (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Scotty's On Edge (3/1) |
| Show: | 8Sweet La Crema (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Juilliard (10/1), 1Gin And Whiskey (5/1), 3Healing Waters (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4Bureau (10/1), 5Tazzy (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 261387 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 28764513 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #3, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #3, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #13 over #5 ($1 straight; box #13-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #13 over #7, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #12 over #7 ($1 straight; box #12-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #12, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #2, #7, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #9 over #12 ($1 straight; box #9-#12 for cover) Trifecta: #12 over #9, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 9 | AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #6, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder)) Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 6 | 9Garryowen | 10/1 | — | 10.9% | +19.6% | 0.49% | $0.49 |
| 8 | 3Halter Boy ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer | 25/1 | — | 3.3% | +-13.7% | 0.00% | $0.00 |
| 4 | 9Delightful Beauty ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer | 20/1 | — | 3.8% | +-19.4% | 0.00% | $0.00 |
| 6 | 6Winery ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer | 20/1 | — | 3.2% | +-32.8% | 0.00% | $0.00 |
| TOTAL across 4 plays: | 0.5% | $0.49 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. ⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 6Amani's Music (3/1) |
| Place: | 2Hitherto (9/5) |
| Show: | 1Missys Maybaby (12/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Simone (9/2), 7Italianvisa (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Heaven's Hope (12/1), 4Alqab (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 627315 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2765341 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| Win: | 1Blazing Freedom (9/5) |
| Place: | 5What About Now (12/1) |
| Show: | 3Jordans Deal (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Cavatelli (9/2), 4More Sweets (7/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2High Dollar Dolly (10/1), 6B On The Loose (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 134765 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1352476 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 3Tiz Eddie (6/5) |
| Place: | 4Sleepy (7/2) |
| Show: | 6Goldwyn (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Illegal Contact (5/1), 5Molly's Town (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Win Me Over (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 346152 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 346251 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |
| Win: | 13She Ran (9/5) |
| Place: | 7Velvet Crown (5/1) |
| Show: | 5Hot Dawg (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Underestimated (6/1), 1Miss Byerley (6/1), 10Ninetales (4/1), 3Mesdemon (25/1) |
| Rest of field: | 12Furious Angel (8/1), 11Tigra (12/1), 9Delightful Beauty (20/1), 6Oh Bonita (25/1), 2Sovereign Stride (20/1), 4Murasaki (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 13571081 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 4Fancy Fairlane (6/5) |
| Place: | 1Monster Max (7/2) |
| Show: | 7Chocolate Moose (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Stranger's Church (5/1), 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Texas Free (10/1), 5Gdoubleyou (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 417236 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4613725 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 10Knicks N Stones (6/1) |
| Place: | 7Mi Compadre (9/2) |
| Show: | 12Culture War (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Moral Man (9/2), 9Garryowen (10/1), 2Midnite In Finley (5/1), 5Playonwords (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Somethintobelieven (12/1), 6Winery (20/1), 1Only Frank Knows (25/1), 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1), 8Adam Five Oh (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12710425 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #12, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| Win: | 4Jack's Summer (5/1) |
| Place: | 3Country Embrace (8/1) |
| Show: | 6Spooky Ridge (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Instilled Zip (6/1), 7Tiz Wine Time (9/2), 12Kaboom (8/1), 5Innisfree Lass (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8Swiss Meringue (6/1), 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1), 10Pink Picture (12/1), 13Pay Me Later (15/1), 1I Forgot It (12/1), 11Goody Two Socks (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 647328 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 9Master Munnings (7/2) |
| Place: | 12Follow The Money (5/1) |
| Show: | 7Cheesesteak (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Moonrise Drive (4/1), 4Gettysburg Address (8/1), 11Fervent Prayer (8/1), 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Halter Boy (25/1), 13Stronger Together (8/1), 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1), 6Vaccinator (15/1), 2Franchuchie (25/1), 1Parker (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 95127411 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 6Scotty's On Edge (3/1) |
| Place: | 7Juilliard (10/1) |
| Show: | 8Sweet La Crema (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Sir Gallivant (5/2), 1Gin And Whiskey (5/1), 3Healing Waters (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4Bureau (10/1), 5Tazzy (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 261837 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 28764513 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 6Amani's Music (3/1) |
| Place: | 3Simone (9/2) |
| Show: | 2Hitherto (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 7Italianvisa (3/1), 1Missys Maybaby (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Heaven's Hope (12/1), 4Alqab (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 263715 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2765341 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| Win: | 1Blazing Freedom (9/5) |
| Place: | 3Jordans Deal (4/1) |
| Show: | 7Cavatelli (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4More Sweets (7/2), 5What About Now (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6B On The Loose (6/1), 2High Dollar Dolly (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 134765 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1352476 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 3Tiz Eddie (6/5) |
| Place: | 4Sleepy (7/2) |
| Show: | 6Goldwyn (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Molly's Town (6/1), 1Illegal Contact (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Win Me Over (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 346152 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 346251 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |
| Win: | 13She Ran (9/5) |
| Place: | 7Velvet Crown (5/1) |
| Show: | 5Hot Dawg (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Underestimated (6/1), 10Ninetales (4/1), 1Miss Byerley (6/1), 12Furious Angel (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Mesdemon (25/1), 11Tigra (12/1), 2Sovereign Stride (20/1), 9Delightful Beauty (20/1), 6Oh Bonita (25/1), 4Murasaki (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 13571081 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 13510178121132694 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 4Fancy Fairlane (6/5) |
| Place: | 1Monster Max (7/2) |
| Show: | 7Chocolate Moose (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Stranger's Church (5/1), 6Diamnd Con Suerte (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Texas Free (10/1), 5Gdoubleyou (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 417236 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4613725 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 7Mi Compadre (9/2) |
| Place: | 12Culture War (3/1) |
| Show: | 2Midnite In Finley (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Moral Man (9/2), 5Playonwords (6/1), 10Knicks N Stones (6/1), 9Garryowen (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Somethintobelieven (12/1), 6Winery (20/1), 1Only Frank Knows (25/1), 11Chef Ray Wiley (25/1), 8Adam Five Oh (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12742510 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 912721034561181 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #12, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| Win: | 4Jack's Summer (5/1) |
| Place: | 2Instilled Zip (6/1) |
| Show: | 7Tiz Wine Time (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 9Prayer Unbridled (12/1), 6Spooky Ridge (9/2), 12Kaboom (8/1), 5Innisfree Lass (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Country Embrace (8/1), 10Pink Picture (12/1), 8Swiss Meringue (6/1), 13Pay Me Later (15/1), 1I Forgot It (12/1), 11Goody Two Socks (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4726812 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 93121374621051811 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #7, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 12Follow The Money (5/1) |
| Place: | 9Master Munnings (7/2) |
| Show: | 4Gettysburg Address (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Cheesesteak (5/1), 5Moonrise Drive (4/1), 8Handsoffthegoods (20/1), 3Halter Boy (25/1) |
| Rest of field: | 13Stronger Together (8/1), 10Verrazanointhesky (15/1), 11Fervent Prayer (8/1), 6Vaccinator (15/1), 2Franchuchie (25/1), 1Parker (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 91257413 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 94121011587632131 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #9, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 2Sir Gallivant (5/2) |
| Place: | 6Scotty's On Edge (3/1) |
| Show: | 7Juilliard (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Sweet La Crema (8/1), 1Gin And Whiskey (5/1), 4Bureau (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Healing Waters (5/1), 5Tazzy (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 261387 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 28764513 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #6,#3,#2 (65%) / R2: #3,#1,#7 (67%) / R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #3,#1,#7 (67%) / R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) / R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29% |
| Pick 3 R3-5 | R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) / R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) / R5: #4,#1 (61%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) / R5: #4,#1 (61%) / R6: #12,#4,#7 (52%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20% |
| Pick 4 R2-5 | R2: #3,#1,#7 (67%) / R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) / R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) / R5: #4,#1 (61%) $54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18% |
| Pick 4 R3-6 | R3: #3,#4,#6 (69%) / R4: #7,#13,#5 (63%) / R5: #4,#1 (61%) / R6: #12,#4,#7 (52%) $54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ADAM FIVE OH | ALQAB | AMANI'S MUSIC | B ON THE LOOSE | BLAZING FREEDOM |
| CAVATELLI | CHEESESTEAK | CHEF RAY WILEY | CHOCOLATE MOOSE | COUNTRY EMBRACE |
| DELIGHTFUL BEAUTY | DIAMND CON SUERTE | FANCY FAIRLANE | FERVENT PRAYER | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| FURIOUS ANGEL | GARRYOWEN | GDOUBLEYOU | GETTYSBURG ADDRESS | GIN AND WHISKEY |
| GOODY TWO SOCKS | HALTER BOY | HANDSOFFTHEGOODS | HEALING WATERS | HEAVEN'S HOPE |
| HITHERTO | HOT DAWG | I FORGOT IT | ILLEGAL CONTACT | INNISFREE LASS |
| ITALIANVISA | JACK'S SUMMER | JORDANS DEAL | JUILLIARD | KABOOM |
| MASTER MUNNINGS | MESDEMON | MI COMPADRE | MIDNITE IN FINLEY | MISS BYERLEY |
| MOLLY'S TOWN | MONSTER MAX | MOONRISE DRIVE | MORAL MAN | MORE SWEETS |
| NINETALES | OH BONITA | ONLY FRANK KNOWS | PARKER | PAY ME LATER |
| PLAYONWORDS | PRAYER UNBRIDLED | SCOTTY'S ON EDGE | SHE RAN | SIMONE |
| SLEEPY | SOMETHINTOBELIEVEN | SOVEREIGN STRIDE | SPOOKY RIDGE | STRANGER'S CHURCH |
| SWEET LA CREMA | SWISS MERINGUE | TAZZY | TEXAS FREE | TIGRA |
| TIZ WINE TIME | UNDERESTIMATED | VACCINATOR | VELVET CROWN | VERRAZANOINTHESKY |
| WIN ME OVER | WINERY |
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