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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Delta Downs, November 11, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Delta Downs — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 143 graded races at Delta Downs, 2026-10-09 to 2026-11-07.

0%19%39%58%78%Our top pick: 62.2% from 143 racesOur top pick62.2%Morning-line favourite: 58.0% from 143 racesMorning-line favourite58.0%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick62.2%143
Morning-line favourite58.0%143
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Severus Squall (5/2)
Place:4He's Ready To Win (7/2)
Show:1Daat (5/1)
Other contenders:9Jackson's Speaker (9/2), 8El Gansito (6/1), 6Heath's Soldier (8/1)
Rest of field:3Stormcatholic Spot (20/1), 5Make Me A Deal (20/1), 2Red Power (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 749186
🎯 Longshots: 749156238
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Wannabeeloved (9/5)
Place:1Woods N Water (4/1)
Show:10Quaternion (5/1)
Other contenders:7Robbiesstormangel (8/1), 8Traitour (10/1), 2Razor Crest (8/1)
Rest of field:3Midnight Rules (12/1), 5Cavanal (15/1), 9Little Warrior (20/1), 4Kee Jee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6110728
🎯 Longshots: 67381210549
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #10, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Princess Peach (5/2)
Place:7Married For Money (7/2)
Show:2R T's Cajun Star (5/1)
Other contenders:8Lady Ella (6/1), 10Kisses For Cooper (8/1), 9She's By My Side (10/1), 11Rockaby Baby (6/1)
Rest of field:6Frisee (12/1), 3Dreamchaser Jewels (10/1), 1Candy Girl Miss (20/1), 4Go North Boss (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 57281011
🎯 Longshots: 5721068193114
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Mucino (7/5)
Place:3Guns (7/2)
Show:2Field Study (6/1)
Other contenders:7Zavala (8/1), 1Jeffrow (8/1), 9Three Echoes (12/1)
Rest of field:4Coattails (12/1), 6I'm Your Man (15/1), 5Backfire (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 832719
🎯 Longshots: 893476152
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Olympiad's Choice (5/2)
Place:5Alakazam (6/1)
Show:7Miss T (7/2)
Other contenders:3My Sweet Caroline (6/1), 1Leo's Chic (5/1), 9Shirley Our Joy (12/1)
Rest of field:4Warmhearted Lady (10/1), 8Saratoga Speak (15/1), 2Prollydid (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 675319
🎯 Longshots: 675314928
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $28,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Snazzy Gal (2/1)
Place:6Dolly's Guitar (3/1)
Show:3Crusin Like A Cat (9/2)
Other contenders:1Two Jet (6/1), 7Charge The Deal (5/1)
Rest of field:2Call Me Susan (8/1), 4One Line Ruler (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 563712
🎯 Longshots: 5621374
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Iron In The Fire (3/1)
Place:5Mi Solution (2/1)
Show:3Native Star (6/1)
Other contenders:1Yockey's Drivethru (9/2), 4Home Visit (5/1)
Rest of field:7San Juan Hill (10/1), 6My Dad's Guitar (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 253147
🎯 Longshots: 2735416
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Sassi Royal (2/1)
Place:8Greatizlove (7/2)
Show:2Hadean Star (6/1)
Other contenders:4Catalina Classic (10/1), 9Riddick (5/1), 3Cadillac Bo (12/1)
Rest of field:1Cabanabobanna (6/1), 7Texano Hero (20/1), 5Auston Got Even (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 682941
🎯 Longshots: 648237915
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Delta Downs — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 138 graded races at Delta Downs, 2026-10-09 to 2026-11-07.

0%10%21%31%42%Our top pick: 33.3% from 138 racesOur top pick33.3%Morning-line favourite: 29.7% from 138 racesMorning-line favourite29.7%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick33.3%138
Morning-line favourite29.7%138
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:7Severus Squall (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Place:9Jackson's Speaker (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:1Daat (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:4He's Ready To Win (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -46%, 6Heath's Soldier (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -30%, 8El Gansito (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -53%
Rest of field:2Red Power (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -39%, 3Stormcatholic Spot (20/1) 5% · fair 21-1, 5Make Me A Deal (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -37%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Severus Squall — 25.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Severus Squall25.3% ◀Jackson'S Speaker — 18.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Jackson'S Speaker18.3%Daat — 15.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Daat15.3%He'S Ready To Win — 13.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1He'S Ready To Win13.5%Heath'S Soldier — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Heath'S Soldier8.0%El Gansito — 7.3% win probability, morning line 6/1El Gansito7.3%Red Power — 4.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Red Power4.8%Stormcatholic Spot — 4.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Stormcatholic Spot4.6%Make Me A Deal — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Make Me A Deal3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Severus Squall25.3%2.5/1
Jackson'S Speaker18.3%4.5/1
Daat15.3%5/1
He'S Ready To Win13.5%3.5/1
Heath'S Soldier8.0%8/1
El Gansito7.3%6/1
Red Power4.8%12/1
Stormcatholic Spot4.6%20/1
Make Me A Deal3.0%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSeverus Squall: model 25.3% vs market 22.3% (+3.0 points)Severus Squall+3.0Jackson'S Speaker: model 18.3% vs market 14.2% (+4.1 points)Jackson'S Speaker+4.1Daat: model 15.3% vs market 13.0% (+2.3 points)Daat+2.3He'S Ready To Win: model 13.5% vs market 17.3% (-3.9 points)He'S Ready To Win-3.9Heath'S Soldier: model 8.0% vs market 8.7% (-0.7 points)Heath'S Soldier-0.7El Gansito: model 7.3% vs market 11.1% (-3.9 points)El Gansito-3.9Red Power: model 4.8% vs market 6.0% (-1.2 points)Red Power-1.2Stormcatholic Spot: model 4.6% vs market 3.7% (+0.8 points)Stormcatholic Spot+0.8Make Me A Deal: model 3.0% vs market 3.7% (-0.7 points)Make Me A Deal-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Severus Squall25.3%22.3%+3.0
Jackson'S Speaker18.3%14.2%+4.1
Daat15.3%13.0%+2.3
He'S Ready To Win13.5%17.3%-3.9
Heath'S Soldier8.0%8.7%-0.7
El Gansito7.3%11.1%-3.9
Red Power4.8%6.0%-1.2
Stormcatholic Spot4.6%3.7%+0.8
Make Me A Deal3.0%3.7%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 794186
🎯 Longshots: 749156238
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #9, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Wannabeeloved (9/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -25%
Place:1Woods N Water (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:10Quaternion (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -32%
Other contenders:7Robbiesstormangel (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -26%, 8Traitour (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 3Midnight Rules (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Rest of field:2Razor Crest (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -48%, 5Cavanal (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -29%, 9Little Warrior (20/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -35%, 4Kee Jee (20/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -65%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Wannabeeloved — 29.4% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Wannabeeloved29.4% ◀Woods N Water — 21.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Woods N Water21.5%Quaternion — 12.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Quaternion12.0%Robbiesstormangel — 8.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Robbiesstormangel8.4%Traitour — 7.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Traitour7.0%Midnight Rules — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Midnight Rules6.2%Razor Crest — 6.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Razor Crest6.1%Cavanal — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Cavanal4.5%Little Warrior — 3.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Little Warrior3.2%Kee Jee — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Kee Jee1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Wannabeeloved29.4%1.8/1
Woods N Water21.5%4/1
Quaternion12.0%5/1
Robbiesstormangel8.4%8/1
Traitour7.0%10/1
Midnight Rules6.2%12/1
Razor Crest6.1%8/1
Cavanal4.5%15/1
Little Warrior3.2%20/1
Kee Jee1.7%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWannabeeloved: model 29.4% vs market 28.1% (+1.3 points)Wannabeeloved+1.3Woods N Water: model 21.5% vs market 15.7% (+5.8 points)Woods N Water+5.8Quaternion: model 12.0% vs market 13.1% (-1.1 points)Quaternion-1.1Robbiesstormangel: model 8.4% vs market 8.7% (-0.3 points)Robbiesstormangel-0.3Traitour: model 7.0% vs market 7.1% (-0.2 points)Traitour-0.2Midnight Rules: model 6.2% vs market 6.0% (+0.1 points)Midnight Rules+0.1Razor Crest: model 6.1% vs market 8.7% (-2.7 points)Razor Crest-2.7Cavanal: model 4.5% vs market 4.9% (-0.4 points)Cavanal-0.4Little Warrior: model 3.2% vs market 3.7% (-0.6 points)Little Warrior-0.6Kee Jee: model 1.7% vs market 3.7% (-2.0 points)Kee Jee-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Wannabeeloved29.4%28.1%+1.3
Woods N Water21.5%15.7%+5.8
Quaternion12.0%13.1%-1.1
Robbiesstormangel8.4%8.7%-0.3
Traitour7.0%7.1%-0.2
Midnight Rules6.2%6.0%+0.1
Razor Crest6.1%8.7%-2.7
Cavanal4.5%4.9%-0.4
Little Warrior3.2%3.7%-0.6
Kee Jee1.7%3.7%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 6110728
🎯 Longshots: 67381210549
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #10, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:5Princess Peach (5/2) 31% · fair 2-1
Place:2R T's Cajun Star (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:7Married For Money (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -33%
Other contenders:8Lady Ella (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -35%, 9She's By My Side (10/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -30%, 10Kisses For Cooper (8/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -62%, 1Candy Girl Miss (20/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -27%
Rest of field:6Frisee (12/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -58%, 3Dreamchaser Jewels (10/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -66%, 11Rockaby Baby (6/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -81%, 4Go North Boss (20/1) 2% · fair 49-1 underlay -59%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Princess Peach — 30.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Princess Peach30.9% ◀R T'S Cajun Star — 16.9% win probability, morning line 5/1R T'S Cajun Star16.9%Married For Money — 16.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Married For Money16.0%Lady Ella — 9.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Lady Ella9.8%She'S By My Side — 6.6% win probability, morning line 10/1She'S By My Side6.6%Kisses For Cooper — 4.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Kisses For Cooper4.5%Candy Girl Miss — 3.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Candy Girl Miss3.5%Frisee — 3.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Frisee3.3%Dreamchaser Jewels — 3.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Dreamchaser Jewels3.3%Rockaby Baby — 3.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Rockaby Baby3.1%Go North Boss — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Go North Boss2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Princess Peach30.9%2.5/1
R T'S Cajun Star16.9%5/1
Married For Money16.0%3.5/1
Lady Ella9.8%6/1
She'S By My Side6.6%10/1
Kisses For Cooper4.5%8/1
Candy Girl Miss3.5%20/1
Frisee3.3%12/1
Dreamchaser Jewels3.3%10/1
Rockaby Baby3.1%6/1
Go North Boss2.0%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPrincess Peach: model 30.9% vs market 20.0% (+10.8 points)Princess Peach+10.8R T'S Cajun Star: model 16.9% vs market 11.7% (+5.2 points)R T'S Cajun Star+5.2Married For Money: model 16.0% vs market 15.6% (+0.4 points)Married For Money+0.4Lady Ella: model 9.8% vs market 10.0% (-0.2 points)Lady Ella-0.2She'S By My Side: model 6.6% vs market 6.4% (+0.2 points)She'S By My Side+0.2Kisses For Cooper: model 4.5% vs market 7.8% (-3.3 points)Kisses For Cooper-3.3Candy Girl Miss: model 3.5% vs market 3.3% (+0.2 points)Candy Girl Miss+0.2Frisee: model 3.3% vs market 5.4% (-2.1 points)Frisee-2.1Dreamchaser Jewels: model 3.3% vs market 6.4% (-3.0 points)Dreamchaser Jewels-3.0Rockaby Baby: model 3.1% vs market 10.0% (-6.9 points)Rockaby Baby-6.9Go North Boss: model 2.0% vs market 3.3% (-1.3 points)Go North Boss-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Princess Peach30.9%20.0%+10.8
R T'S Cajun Star16.9%11.7%+5.2
Married For Money16.0%15.6%+0.4
Lady Ella9.8%10.0%-0.2
She'S By My Side6.6%6.4%+0.2
Kisses For Cooper4.5%7.8%-3.3
Candy Girl Miss3.5%3.3%+0.2
Frisee3.3%5.4%-2.1
Dreamchaser Jewels3.3%6.4%-3.0
Rockaby Baby3.1%10.0%-6.9
Go North Boss2.0%3.3%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 57281110
🎯 Longshots: 5721068193114
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Mucino (7/5) 41% · fair 3-2
Place:3Guns (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:2Field Study (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:7Zavala (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -27%, 1Jeffrow (8/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -51%, 9Three Echoes (12/1) 4% · fair 21-1 underlay -43%
Rest of field:4Coattails (12/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -46%, 6I'm Your Man (15/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -49%, 5Backfire (20/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -51%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mucino — 41.0% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Mucino41.0% ◀Guns — 18.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Guns18.3%Field Study — 12.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Field Study12.0%Zavala — 8.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Zavala8.4%Jeffrow — 5.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Jeffrow5.8%Three Echoes — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Three Echoes4.5%Coattails — 4.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Coattails4.3%I'M Your Man — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1I'M Your Man3.3%Backfire — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Backfire2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mucino41.0%1.4/1
Guns18.3%3.5/1
Field Study12.0%6/1
Zavala8.4%8/1
Jeffrow5.8%8/1
Three Echoes4.5%12/1
Coattails4.3%12/1
I'M Your Man3.3%15/1
Backfire2.4%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMucino: model 41.0% vs market 32.9% (+8.2 points)Mucino+8.2Guns: model 18.3% vs market 17.5% (+0.8 points)Guns+0.8Field Study: model 12.0% vs market 11.3% (+0.8 points)Field Study+0.8Zavala: model 8.4% vs market 8.8% (-0.4 points)Zavala-0.4Jeffrow: model 5.8% vs market 8.8% (-3.0 points)Jeffrow-3.0Three Echoes: model 4.5% vs market 6.1% (-1.6 points)Three Echoes-1.6Coattails: model 4.3% vs market 6.1% (-1.8 points)Coattails-1.8I'M Your Man: model 3.3% vs market 4.9% (-1.6 points)I'M Your Man-1.6Backfire: model 2.4% vs market 3.8% (-1.4 points)Backfire-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mucino41.0%32.9%+8.2
Guns18.3%17.5%+0.8
Field Study12.0%11.3%+0.8
Zavala8.4%8.8%-0.4
Jeffrow5.8%8.8%-3.0
Three Echoes4.5%6.1%-1.6
Coattails4.3%6.1%-1.8
I'M Your Man3.3%4.9%-1.6
Backfire2.4%3.8%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 832719
🎯 Longshots: 893476152
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:6Olympiad's Choice (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -34%
Place:5Alakazam (6/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +47%
Show:1Leo's Chic (5/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:3My Sweet Caroline (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -26%, 7Miss T (7/2) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -63%, 4Warmhearted Lady (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:9Shirley Our Joy (12/1) 8% · fair 25-2, 8Saratoga Speak (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -48%, 2Prollydid (15/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -51%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Olympiad'S Choice — 20.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Olympiad'S Choice20.9% ◀Alakazam — 19.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Alakazam19.7%Leo'S Chic — 15.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Leo'S Chic15.8%My Sweet Caroline — 11.0% win probability, morning line 6/1My Sweet Caroline11.0%Miss T — 9.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Miss T9.5%Warmhearted Lady — 9.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Warmhearted Lady9.1%Shirley Our Joy — 7.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Shirley Our Joy7.5%Saratoga Speak — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Saratoga Speak3.4%Prollydid — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Prollydid3.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Olympiad'S Choice20.9%2.5/1
Alakazam19.7%6/1
Leo'S Chic15.8%5/1
My Sweet Caroline11.0%6/1
Miss T9.5%3.5/1
Warmhearted Lady9.1%10/1
Shirley Our Joy7.5%12/1
Saratoga Speak3.4%15/1
Prollydid3.1%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOlympiad'S Choice: model 20.9% vs market 22.8% (-1.9 points)Olympiad'S Choice-1.9Alakazam: model 19.7% vs market 11.4% (+8.3 points)Alakazam+8.3Leo'S Chic: model 15.8% vs market 13.3% (+2.5 points)Leo'S Chic+2.5My Sweet Caroline: model 11.0% vs market 11.4% (-0.4 points)My Sweet Caroline-0.4Miss T: model 9.5% vs market 17.7% (-8.2 points)Miss T-8.2Warmhearted Lady: model 9.1% vs market 7.3% (+1.8 points)Warmhearted Lady+1.8Shirley Our Joy: model 7.5% vs market 6.1% (+1.4 points)Shirley Our Joy+1.4Saratoga Speak: model 3.4% vs market 5.0% (-1.6 points)Saratoga Speak-1.6Prollydid: model 3.1% vs market 5.0% (-1.8 points)Prollydid-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Olympiad'S Choice20.9%22.8%-1.9
Alakazam19.7%11.4%+8.3
Leo'S Chic15.8%13.3%+2.5
My Sweet Caroline11.0%11.4%-0.4
Miss T9.5%17.7%-8.2
Warmhearted Lady9.1%7.3%+1.8
Shirley Our Joy7.5%6.1%+1.4
Saratoga Speak3.4%5.0%-1.6
Prollydid3.1%5.0%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 651734
🎯 Longshots: 675314928
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $28,000
Win:5Snazzy Gal (2/1) 31% · fair 5-2
Place:6Dolly's Guitar (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27%
Show:1Two Jet (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:3Crusin Like A Cat (9/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -35%, 7Charge The Deal (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -40%
Rest of field:2Call Me Susan (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -40%, 4One Line Ruler (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Snazzy Gal — 30.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Snazzy Gal30.5% ◀Dolly'S Guitar — 19.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Dolly'S Guitar19.7%Two Jet — 13.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Two Jet13.8%Crusin Like A Cat — 12.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Crusin Like A Cat12.6%Charge The Deal — 10.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Charge The Deal10.6%Call Me Susan — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Call Me Susan6.9%One Line Ruler — 5.8% win probability, morning line 15/1One Line Ruler5.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Snazzy Gal30.5%2/1
Dolly'S Guitar19.7%3/1
Two Jet13.8%6/1
Crusin Like A Cat12.6%4.5/1
Charge The Deal10.6%5/1
Call Me Susan6.9%8/1
One Line Ruler5.8%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 563172
🎯 Longshots: 5621374
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:2Iron In The Fire (3/1) 27% · fair 3-1
Place:4Home Visit (5/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +32%
Show:3Native Star (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +29%
Other contenders:1Yockey's Drivethru (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2, 5Mi Solution (2/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -74%
Rest of field:7San Juan Hill (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 6My Dad's Guitar (12/1) 2% · fair 111-2 underlay -78%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Iron In The Fire — 26.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Iron In The Fire26.6% ◀Home Visit — 20.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Home Visit20.8%Native Star — 17.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Native Star17.7%Yockey'S Drivethru — 15.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Yockey'S Drivethru15.7%Mi Solution — 11.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Mi Solution11.6%San Juan Hill — 5.7% win probability, morning line 10/1San Juan Hill5.7%My Dad'S Guitar — 1.8% win probability, morning line 12/1My Dad'S Guitar1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Iron In The Fire26.6%3/1
Home Visit20.8%5/1
Native Star17.7%6/1
Yockey'S Drivethru15.7%4.5/1
Mi Solution11.6%2/1
San Juan Hill5.7%10/1
My Dad'S Guitar1.8%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherIron In The Fire: model 26.6% vs market 20.1% (+6.5 points)Iron In The Fire+6.5Home Visit: model 20.8% vs market 13.4% (+7.4 points)Home Visit+7.4Native Star: model 17.7% vs market 11.5% (+6.2 points)Native Star+6.2Yockey'S Drivethru: model 15.7% vs market 14.6% (+1.0 points)Yockey'S Drivethru+1.0Mi Solution: model 11.6% vs market 26.8% (-15.2 points)Mi Solution-15.2San Juan Hill: model 5.7% vs market 7.3% (-1.6 points)San Juan Hill-1.6My Dad'S Guitar: model 1.8% vs market 6.2% (-4.4 points)My Dad'S Guitar-4.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Iron In The Fire26.6%20.1%+6.5
Home Visit20.8%13.4%+7.4
Native Star17.7%11.5%+6.2
Yockey'S Drivethru15.7%14.6%+1.0
Mi Solution11.6%26.8%-15.2
San Juan Hill5.7%7.3%-1.6
My Dad'S Guitar1.8%6.2%-4.4
🌧️ Off-track: 254137
🎯 Longshots: 2735416
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:6Sassi Royal (2/1) 44% · fair 3-2 overlay +58%
Place:8Greatizlove (7/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -50%
Show:2Hadean Star (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:4Catalina Classic (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 9Riddick (5/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -64%, 1Cabanabobanna (6/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -65%
Rest of field:3Cadillac Bo (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%, 7Texano Hero (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 5Auston Got Even (20/1) 1% · fair 73-1 underlay -73%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sassi Royal — 44.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Sassi Royal44.2% ◀Greatizlove — 12.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Greatizlove12.5%Hadean Star — 11.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Hadean Star11.4%Catalina Classic — 10.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Catalina Classic10.2%Riddick — 6.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Riddick6.8%Cabanabobanna — 5.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Cabanabobanna5.5%Cadillac Bo — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Cadillac Bo4.2%Texano Hero — 3.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Texano Hero3.8%Auston Got Even — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Auston Got Even1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sassi Royal44.2%2/1
Greatizlove12.5%3.5/1
Hadean Star11.4%6/1
Catalina Classic10.2%10/1
Riddick6.8%5/1
Cabanabobanna5.5%6/1
Cadillac Bo4.2%12/1
Texano Hero3.8%20/1
Auston Got Even1.4%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSassi Royal: model 44.2% vs market 26.2% (+18.0 points)Sassi Royal+18.0Greatizlove: model 12.5% vs market 17.5% (-5.0 points)Greatizlove-5.0Hadean Star: model 11.4% vs market 11.2% (+0.2 points)Hadean Star+0.2Catalina Classic: model 10.2% vs market 7.2% (+3.0 points)Catalina Classic+3.0Riddick: model 6.8% vs market 13.1% (-6.3 points)Riddick-6.3Cabanabobanna: model 5.5% vs market 11.2% (-5.7 points)Cabanabobanna-5.7Cadillac Bo: model 4.2% vs market 6.1% (-1.9 points)Cadillac Bo-1.9Texano Hero: model 3.8% vs market 3.7% (+0.1 points)Texano Hero+0.1Auston Got Even: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.4 points)Auston Got Even-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sassi Royal44.2%26.2%+18.0
Greatizlove12.5%17.5%-5.0
Hadean Star11.4%11.2%+0.2
Catalina Classic10.2%7.2%+3.0
Riddick6.8%13.1%-6.3
Cabanabobanna5.5%11.2%-5.7
Cadillac Bo4.2%6.1%-1.9
Texano Hero3.8%3.7%+0.1
Auston Got Even1.4%3.7%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 682914
🎯 Longshots: 648237915
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:7Severus Squall (5/2)
Place:9Jackson's Speaker (9/2)
Show:1Daat (5/1)
Other contenders:4He's Ready To Win (7/2), 6Heath's Soldier (8/1), 8El Gansito (6/1)
Rest of field:2Red Power (12/1), 5Make Me A Deal (20/1), 3Stormcatholic Spot (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 749186
🎯 Longshots: 749156238
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #9, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Wannabeeloved (9/5)
Place:1Woods N Water (4/1)
Show:8Traitour (10/1)
Other contenders:10Quaternion (5/1), 7Robbiesstormangel (8/1), 3Midnight Rules (12/1)
Rest of field:2Razor Crest (8/1), 5Cavanal (15/1), 4Kee Jee (20/1), 9Little Warrior (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6110872
🎯 Longshots: 67381210549
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #8, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:5Princess Peach (5/2)
Place:2R T's Cajun Star (5/1)
Show:8Lady Ella (6/1)
Other contenders:7Married For Money (7/2), 9She's By My Side (10/1), 10Kisses For Cooper (8/1), 11Rockaby Baby (6/1)
Rest of field:3Dreamchaser Jewels (10/1), 6Frisee (12/1), 1Candy Girl Miss (20/1), 4Go North Boss (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 57281110
🎯 Longshots: 5721068193114
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Mucino (7/5)
Place:3Guns (7/2)
Show:2Field Study (6/1)
Other contenders:7Zavala (8/1), 1Jeffrow (8/1), 9Three Echoes (12/1)
Rest of field:4Coattails (12/1), 6I'm Your Man (15/1), 5Backfire (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 832719
🎯 Longshots: 893476152
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:6Olympiad's Choice (5/2)
Place:5Alakazam (6/1)
Show:1Leo's Chic (5/1)
Other contenders:7Miss T (7/2), 3My Sweet Caroline (6/1), 4Warmhearted Lady (10/1)
Rest of field:9Shirley Our Joy (12/1), 2Prollydid (15/1), 8Saratoga Speak (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 675134
🎯 Longshots: 675314928
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $28,000
Win:5Snazzy Gal (2/1)
Place:6Dolly's Guitar (3/1)
Show:1Two Jet (6/1)
Other contenders:7Charge The Deal (5/1), 3Crusin Like A Cat (9/2)
Rest of field:2Call Me Susan (8/1), 4One Line Ruler (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 561372
🎯 Longshots: 5621374
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:3Native Star (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:2Iron In The Fire (3/1)
Show:5Mi Solution (2/1)
Other contenders:1Yockey's Drivethru (9/2), 4Home Visit (5/1)
Rest of field:7San Juan Hill (10/1), 6My Dad's Guitar (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 521347
🎯 Longshots: 2735416
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:6Sassi Royal (2/1)
Place:8Greatizlove (7/2)
Show:4Catalina Classic (10/1)
Other contenders:2Hadean Star (6/1), 9Riddick (5/1), 3Cadillac Bo (12/1)
Rest of field:1Cabanabobanna (6/1), 7Texano Hero (20/1), 5Auston Got Even (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 682914
🎯 Longshots: 648237915
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #7 over #9 ($1 straight; box #7-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #7, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #3, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #8, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #8 over #3 ($1 straight; box #8-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #3, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #5 ($1 straight; box #6-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #5, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #5 over #6 ($1 straight; box #5-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
Race 8AI Exacta: #6 over #8 ($1 straight; box #6-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #2, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.40 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
84Catalina Classic10/1—10.2%+12.7%0.32%$0.32
23Midnight Rules12/1—8.2%+6.7%0.14%$0.14
TOTAL across 2 plays:0.5%$0.46
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Daat (5/1)
Place:7Severus Squall (5/2)
Show:4He's Ready To Win (7/2)
Other contenders:9Jackson's Speaker (9/2), 8El Gansito (6/1), 6Heath's Soldier (8/1)
Rest of field:2Red Power (12/1), 5Make Me A Deal (20/1), 3Stormcatholic Spot (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 749186
🎯 Longshots: 749156238
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Wannabeeloved (9/5)
Place:3Midnight Rules (12/1)
Show:1Woods N Water (4/1)
Other contenders:10Quaternion (5/1), 7Robbiesstormangel (8/1), 8Traitour (10/1)
Rest of field:2Razor Crest (8/1), 5Cavanal (15/1), 4Kee Jee (20/1), 9Little Warrior (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6110372
🎯 Longshots: 67381210549
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:5Princess Peach (5/2)
Place:2R T's Cajun Star (5/1)
Show:8Lady Ella (6/1)
Other contenders:7Married For Money (7/2), 10Kisses For Cooper (8/1), 11Rockaby Baby (6/1), 9She's By My Side (10/1)
Rest of field:1Candy Girl Miss (20/1), 3Dreamchaser Jewels (10/1), 4Go North Boss (20/1), 6Frisee (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 57281110
🎯 Longshots: 5721068193114
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Mucino (7/5)
Place:3Guns (7/2)
Show:2Field Study (6/1)
Other contenders:1Jeffrow (8/1), 7Zavala (8/1), 6I'm Your Man (15/1)
Rest of field:4Coattails (12/1), 9Three Echoes (12/1), 5Backfire (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 832174
🎯 Longshots: 893476152
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:6Olympiad's Choice (5/2)
Place:5Alakazam (6/1)
Show:7Miss T (7/2)
Other contenders:1Leo's Chic (5/1), 3My Sweet Caroline (6/1), 4Warmhearted Lady (10/1)
Rest of field:9Shirley Our Joy (12/1), 8Saratoga Speak (15/1), 2Prollydid (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 675134
🎯 Longshots: 675314928
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $28,000
Win:5Snazzy Gal (2/1)
Place:1Two Jet (6/1)
Show:2Call Me Susan (8/1)
Other contenders:6Dolly's Guitar (3/1), 7Charge The Deal (5/1)
Rest of field:3Crusin Like A Cat (9/2), 4One Line Ruler (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 561732
🎯 Longshots: 5621374
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:5Mi Solution (2/1)
Place:3Native Star (6/1)
Show:2Iron In The Fire (3/1)
Other contenders:1Yockey's Drivethru (9/2), 7San Juan Hill (10/1)
Rest of field:4Home Visit (5/1), 6My Dad's Guitar (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 523147
🎯 Longshots: 2735416
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:6Sassi Royal (2/1)
Place:4Catalina Classic (10/1)
Show:8Greatizlove (7/2)
Other contenders:3Cadillac Bo (12/1), 2Hadean Star (6/1), 9Riddick (5/1)
Rest of field:7Texano Hero (20/1), 1Cabanabobanna (6/1), 5Auston Got Even (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 689421
🎯 Longshots: 648237915
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Daat (5/1)
Place:7Severus Squall (5/2)
Show:4He's Ready To Win (7/2)
Other contenders:9Jackson's Speaker (9/2), 6Heath's Soldier (8/1), 8El Gansito (6/1)
Rest of field:2Red Power (12/1), 3Stormcatholic Spot (20/1), 5Make Me A Deal (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 741986
🎯 Longshots: 749156238
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Wannabeeloved (9/5)
Place:1Woods N Water (4/1)
Show:3Midnight Rules (12/1)
Other contenders:10Quaternion (5/1), 8Traitour (10/1), 2Razor Crest (8/1)
Rest of field:7Robbiesstormangel (8/1), 5Cavanal (15/1), 4Kee Jee (20/1), 9Little Warrior (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6110278
🎯 Longshots: 67381210549
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:5Princess Peach (5/2)
Place:8Lady Ella (6/1)
Show:7Married For Money (7/2)
Other contenders:2R T's Cajun Star (5/1), 10Kisses For Cooper (8/1), 3Dreamchaser Jewels (10/1), 9She's By My Side (10/1)
Rest of field:11Rockaby Baby (6/1), 1Candy Girl Miss (20/1), 6Frisee (12/1), 4Go North Boss (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 57281011
🎯 Longshots: 5721068193114
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Mucino (7/5)
Place:3Guns (7/2)
Show:2Field Study (6/1)
Other contenders:1Jeffrow (8/1), 7Zavala (8/1), 9Three Echoes (12/1)
Rest of field:6I'm Your Man (15/1), 4Coattails (12/1), 5Backfire (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 832179
🎯 Longshots: 893476152
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000
Win:6Olympiad's Choice (5/2)
Place:5Alakazam (6/1)
Show:1Leo's Chic (5/1)
Other contenders:7Miss T (7/2), 3My Sweet Caroline (6/1), 4Warmhearted Lady (10/1)
Rest of field:9Shirley Our Joy (12/1), 2Prollydid (15/1), 8Saratoga Speak (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 657134
🎯 Longshots: 675314928
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $28,000
Win:5Snazzy Gal (2/1)
Place:6Dolly's Guitar (3/1)
Show:1Two Jet (6/1)
Other contenders:3Crusin Like A Cat (9/2), 2Call Me Susan (8/1)
Rest of field:7Charge The Deal (5/1), 4One Line Ruler (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 563172
🎯 Longshots: 5621374
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:3Native Star (6/1)
Place:2Iron In The Fire (3/1)
Show:1Yockey's Drivethru (9/2)
Other contenders:5Mi Solution (2/1), 4Home Visit (5/1)
Rest of field:7San Juan Hill (10/1), 6My Dad's Guitar (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 521347
🎯 Longshots: 2735416
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:6Sassi Royal (2/1)
Place:2Hadean Star (6/1)
Show:4Catalina Classic (10/1)
Other contenders:8Greatizlove (7/2), 3Cadillac Bo (12/1), 9Riddick (5/1)
Rest of field:1Cabanabobanna (6/1), 7Texano Hero (20/1), 5Auston Got Even (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 682941
🎯 Longshots: 648237915
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #6,#1,#10 (63%) / R3: #5,#2,#7 (64%) / R4: #8,#3,#2 (71%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #5,#2,#7 (64%) / R4: #8,#3,#2 (71%) / R5: #6,#5,#1 (56%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #8,#3,#2 (71%) / R5: #6,#5,#1 (56%) / R6: #5,#6,#1 (64%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #5,#6,#1 (64%) / R7: #2,#4,#3 (65%) / R8: #6,#8,#2 (68%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #7,#9,#1 (59%) / R2: #6,#1,#10 (63%) / R3: #5,#2,#7 (64%) / R4: #8,#3,#2 (71%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #8,#3,#2 (71%) / R5: #6,#5,#1 (56%) / R6: #5,#6,#1 (64%) / R7: #2,#4,#3 (65%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALAKAZAMAUSTON GOT EVENBACKFIRECABANABOBANNACADILLAC BO
CANDY GIRL MISSCATALINA CLASSICCAVANALCHARGE THE DEALCOATTAILS
DAATDOLLY'S GUITARDREAMCHASER JEWELSEL GANSITOFIELD STUDY
GO NORTH BOSSGREATIZLOVEGUNSHADEAN STARHE'S READY TO WIN
HOME VISITI'M YOUR MANIRON IN THE FIREJACKSON'S SPEAKERJEFFROW
KISSES FOR COOPERLADY ELLALEO'S CHICLITTLE WARRIORMAKE ME A DEAL
MI SOLUTIONMIDNIGHT RULESMISS TMUCINOMY DAD'S GUITAR
NATIVE STAROLYMPIAD'S CHOICEONE LINE RULERPRINCESS PEACHPROLLYDID
R T'S CAJUN STARRAZOR CRESTRED POWERRIDDICKROBBIESSTORMANGEL
SAN JUAN HILLSARATOGA SPEAKSASSI ROYALSEVERUS SQUALLSHE'S BY MY SIDE
SNAZZY GALSTORMCATHOLIC SPOTTEXANO HEROTHREE ECHOESTRAITOUR
WANNABEELOVEDWARMHEARTED LADYWOODS N WATERYOCKEY'S DRIVETHRUZAVALA

 


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