Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.
Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.
Show the numbers
| Week | What we said | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| 7% | 7.4% | 8.4% |
| 12% | 12.4% | 13.7% |
| 18% | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| 26% | 26.0% | 29.8% |
| 39% | 39.1% | 43.2% |
Race Day Overview
Woodbine's Thursday, November 12 card is an eight-race program beginning at 3:10 p.m. Eastern. The supplied card is composed entirely of dirt or all-weather-track races, with distances from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs. The program includes maiden optional claimers, claiming races, maiden claimers, and two optional-claiming events.
The principal races are Race 5, a $69,500, 7-furlong optional claimer; Race 6, a $128,200, 6-furlong allowance optional claimer; and Race 7, a $69,500, 6-furlong optional claimer. The morning-line favorites are Flashy Affair (Race 1, Post 2), Glint Over Essa (Race 1, Post 6), Gretna Green (Race 2, Post 6), Oh Oh Seven (Race 3, Post 7), Souper Sunday (Race 4, Post 1), Shimmering Frost (Race 5, Post 1), Awesome Grace (Race 5, Post 6), Sinclairity (Race 6, Post 1), Minimum Forty (Race 6, Post 2), Mor Joe's Spirit (Race 7, Post 4), Named Firey (Race 7, Post 5), Miss Brit (Race 8, Post 2), and Lemon Sweets (Race 8, Post 9).
The published race listings confirm that Race 1 is a 7-furlong, all-weather maiden optional claimer for 2-year-old fillies, with Flashy Affair (Post 2) identified as the principal selection at approximately 5-2. Race 2 is a 6-furlong all-weather $5,000 claiming event, with Misty Eyed (Post 3) listed as the principal selection at approximately 3-1.
The card comes immediately after Woodbine's November 7 stakes program, on which Sultana (not entered today) repeated in the Maple Leaf Stakes, Runaway Again (not entered today) won the Autumn Stakes, and Pondering (not entered today) captured the third graded stakes. Victory Achieved (not entered today) is scheduled for the November 14 Kennedy Road Stakes. Those results are relevant only as general evidence that the Woodbine all-weather surface has recently been hosting graded-stakes racing; none of those horses is part of today's card.
No verified pre-race scratch or rider-change information was located in the available race-day results. The analysis therefore uses the supplied field and morning-line prices.
Weather and Track Conditions
The Toronto-area forecast calls for a cold, cloudy afternoon with a chance of showers and temperatures near 4 to 5 degrees Celsius. One local forecast calls for afternoon cloud cover and a 30 percent chance of showers, while another Toronto-area report describes periods of showers, strong wind gusts, and colder air moving into southern Ontario.
The available race-card information lists the racing surface as standard and identifies the races as being conducted on Woodbine's all-weather or dirt surface. Race 2, for example, is listed on an all-weather track, while the available Race 3 listing identifies a 6-furlong dirt contest.
The practical handicapping implication is a potentially damp, cold surface rather than a clearly wet or sealed track. Until the first two races establish a pattern, preference should go to horses with tactical speed, proven all-weather ability, and riders capable of securing position without being forced into a prolonged duel. The strong-wind possibility increases the value of saving ground and avoiding an exposed trip on the first turn.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
No reliable, card-specific post-position bias was established before wagering. The available race listing describes the draw advantage as none for the 6-furlong Race 3 and Race 7 configurations.
At Woodbine's sprint distances, the inside posts can be useful when a horse has enough speed to hold position, but an inside draw is not automatically advantageous for a slow starter. A horse buried behind runners can lose momentum, particularly in inexpensive claiming races where traffic and inconsistent early speed are common.
The 7-furlong races are more dependent on tactical positioning than raw post position. Posts 1 through 3 can save ground, while middle posts may provide the cleanest opportunity to stalk without being pinned. Wide posts are not fatal, but those horses generally need either enough speed to cross over or a rider willing to drop back and make one sustained move.
The best approach is to watch the opening two races. If front-runners are carrying speed through the final furlong, upgrade horses such as Flashy Affair (Race 1, Post 2), Gretna Green (Race 2, Post 6), Souper Sunday (Race 4, Post 1), Sinclairity (Race 6, Post 1), and Mor Joe's Spirit (Race 7, Post 4). If closers are making up substantial ground, upgrade horses such as Stiletto Vixen (Race 1, Post 5), Kavala (Race 2, Post 9), Give Me The Boots (Race 6, Post 5), and Navy Street (Race 7, Post 2).
Race 1 — Post (3:10)/2:10/1:10/12:10 — 1540f | D | MO | Moc 25000 | AOF | Purse $53,600
Pace Analysis
This 7-furlong maiden optional claimer appears to contain several horses with enough speed to secure forward position, but the most likely race shape is a compact group behind the first flight rather than a destructive pace. Flashy Affair (Post 2), Glint Over Essa (Post 6), and Another Seattle (Post 7) should be the principal pace influences.
The key is whether Flashy Affair (Post 2) can leave cleanly and avoid being trapped inside. Glint Over Essa (Post 6) has the more convenient outside position and can either press or sit just off the pace. Another Seattle (Post 7) may be widest into the first turn but should have room to settle. A moderate pace would favor the two morning-line choices, while a contested first half-mile would bring Stiletto Vixen (Post 5) into the picture.
Key Contenders
Flashy Affair (Post 2) is the most logical win candidate. The morning line makes her one of two co-favorites, and the combination of Ryan Munger and trainer Katerina Vassilieva gives her a straightforward tactical setup. She should be close enough to avoid traffic and has the best chance to receive the right trip if the pace is ordinary.
Glint Over Essa (Post 6) is the primary alternative. The outside draw is helpful in a maiden field because it reduces the risk of being stopped behind inexperienced runners. Pietro Moran can allow her to establish position without committing too soon. She is the horse most likely to capitalize if Flashy Affair (Post 2) fails to finish the job.
Secondary Choices
Another Seattle (Post 7) is a credible underneath horse and could win if she breaks sharply. Her outside post gives Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin options, but she cannot afford to lose excessive ground around the turn.
Stiletto Vixen (Post 5) is the best price-oriented secondary choice. Leo Salles should be able to keep her within range, and a pace that becomes more demanding than expected would improve her chances.
Longshots
Flatter Addy (Post 1) has the rail and the longest realistic route to contention. Douglas Christoff must save ground and hope for improvement, but the inside draw could help if she breaks more alertly.
Forever Grateful (Post 3) has a useful post but needs to show more against this group. Marietta Babe (Post 4) is another horse who could improve with a clean trip, although Luis Contreras will need to avoid getting caught in a pace battle.
Selections
Win: Flashy Affair (Post 2)
Place: Glint Over Essa (Post 6)
Show: Stiletto Vixen (Post 5)
Betting Strategy
Use Flashy Affair (Post 2) in straight win wagers at 2-1 or higher. The preferred exacta is Flashy Affair (Post 2) and Glint Over Essa (Post 6) over Glint Over Essa (Post 6), Another Seattle (Post 7), and Stiletto Vixen (Post 5). If the price on both favorites collapses, use Stiletto Vixen (Post 5) underneath rather than forcing a short-priced win bet.
Race 2 — Post (3:38)/2:38/1:38/12:38 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 5000 | BUM | Purse $27,800
Pace Analysis
This 6-furlong $5,000 claimer should feature more early speed than the class level might suggest. Gretna Green (Post 6), Misty Eyed (Post 3), and Kavala (Post 9) are the most likely to influence the pace. The outside placement of Gretna Green (Post 6) is favorable because she should be able to establish position without being crowded.
The biggest pace question is whether Misty Eyed (Post 3) insists on the lead or accepts a stalking trip. If those two engage too aggressively, Kavala (Post 9) could be the beneficiary. If the pace is controlled, Gretna Green (Post 6) is positioned to dictate the result.
Key Contenders
Gretna Green (Post 6) is the top selection. She is the morning-line favorite and has the best blend of tactical speed and post-position advantage. Skye Chernetz should be able to place her prominently without using too much energy before the turn.
Misty Eyed (Post 3) is the most serious threat. The published handicapping line makes her a principal contender, and the inside-middle draw should allow Xarel Forde to secure a stalking trip. She is preferable to the longer-priced runners if the pace remains moderate.
Secondary Choices
Kavala (Post 9) has enough class appeal to be dangerous, but the far outside post creates a risk of being hung wide or forced to chase. Pietro Moran will need to judge the break carefully.
Crumlin Trouble (Post 8) is a useful exacta candidate. Dane Nelson may be able to drop her into a covered position and make one late run if the leading pair soften each other.
Sparkling Silver (Post 2) owns the kind of inside position that can produce a better-than-expected finish in this class, provided Jeffrey Alderson can keep her out of trouble.
Longshots
Rosieposie (Post 1) has the rail and could save ground, but she needs a significant forward move. Gizmo's B F F (Post 4) has an efficient post and should be considered for the bottom of wider exotics.
Dynamic Strike (Post 5) is a substantial price and needs to improve sharply, while Nightsaber (Post 7) also requires a form reversal. Both are usable only in very deep trifectas.
Selections
Win: Gretna Green (Post 6)
Place: Misty Eyed (Post 3)
Show: Kavala (Post 9)
Betting Strategy
The best play is a Gretna Green (Post 6) and Misty Eyed (Post 3) exacta box only if the combined price is fair. Use Kavala (Post 9) and Crumlin Trouble (Post 8) underneath both favorites in larger exactas. A small win wager on Misty Eyed (Post 3) becomes attractive if Gretna Green (Post 6) is heavily overbet.
Race 3 — Post (4:08)/3:08/2:08/1:08 — 1320f | D | M | Md 10000 | BUN | Purse $33,700
Pace Analysis
Oh Oh Seven (Post 7) is the clear morning-line pace and class focal point. The field contains several horses who appear more likely to stalk than lead, making a controlled 6-furlong trip probable. Peace Offering (Post 4), Glorious Revenge (Post 2), and Black Thunder (Post 3) should race closest to the favorite.
The main risk for Oh Oh Seven (Post 7) is not necessarily the pace but the possibility of failing to reproduce the form that makes him such a strong favorite. A clean break should allow Fraser Aebly to place him outside the main group and avoid traffic.
Key Contenders
Oh Oh Seven (Post 7) is the obvious horse to beat. The morning line is even money, and the available form information notes that he has already won at 6 furlongs. That prior winning experience gives him an important advantage in a low-level maiden claiming event.
Peace Offering (Post 4) is the preferred alternative. The middle post should allow Dane Nelson to track the favorite while remaining clear of the rail. If Oh Oh Seven (Post 7) becomes vulnerable late, Peace Offering (Post 4) is the most likely horse to take advantage.
Secondary Choices
Glorious Revenge (Post 2) has a favorable inside-middle post and should receive a ground-saving trip. Black Thunder (Post 3) is another logical underneath runner, especially if Romero Ramsay Maragh can keep him within striking distance.
Stormover The Nile (Post 1) has enough positional advantage to outrun his price. The rail is beneficial if he breaks well and does not get shuffled back.
Longshots
Wine Money (Post 5) is a legitimate deep-exotic possibility at 15-1. Corey Jordan will need to produce a clean, efficient trip, but the horse could benefit if the favorite is pressured earlier than expected.
Zip To Zap (Post 6) has speed and should not be dismissed completely, although the 12-1 price reflects the need for improvement. Hard Reload (Post 8) is the largest price and has the most difficult assignment against the favorite.
Selections
Win: Oh Oh Seven (Post 7)
Place: Peace Offering (Post 4)
Show: Glorious Revenge (Post 2)
Betting Strategy
Oh Oh Seven (Post 7) is a likely single in multi-race wagers, but the even-money price offers limited value as a straight win bet. Use him over Peace Offering (Post 4), Glorious Revenge (Post 2), Stormover The Nile (Post 1), and Wine Money (Post 5) in exactas. Wine Money (Post 5) is the preferred saver underneath at a large price.
Race 4 — Post (4:37)/3:37/2:37/1:37 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 7500 | BUM | Purse $30,400
Pace Analysis
Souper Sunday (Post 1) has the inside post and the morning-line favoritism, but this is not an uncontested speed situation. Unheard (Post 3), Wild Red (Post 7), and Saucy Name (Post 8) can all be involved early.
The race should be decided by positioning into the turn. Souper Sunday (Post 1) must leave enough to protect the rail without being forced into a duel. Wild Red (Post 7) has a favorable stalking position and may receive the cleanest trip if the inside horses battle.
Key Contenders
Souper Sunday (Post 1) is the top selection because of class position, the inside draw, and the expected ground-saving trip. Eswan Flores must keep the horse interested early, but the rail can become a major advantage if the pace remains reasonable.
Unheard (Post 3) is the main danger. The post is ideal for a horse that wants to stalk, and Keveh Nicholls should be able to save ground while avoiding the immediate pressure faced by Souper Sunday (Post 1).
Secondary Choices
Wild Red (Post 7) is the best alternative from a trip standpoint. Pietro Moran can sit outside the main speed and begin a gradual advance without being trapped. If the pace is quick, Wild Red (Post 7) may be the winner.
Quiet Maddelena (Post 2) is another horse who could outperform her price. The post is efficient, and Da-Sean Zavier Gaskin should have options if she breaks cleanly.
Longshots
Saucy Name (Post 8) has enough tactical speed to be considered in exactas, though the wide post may require a three-wide trip. Suigu Belle (Post 4) and Just Follow Me (Post 6) both need improvement but could land in the lower rungs with a clean break.
Prima (Post 5) and Fairhopecurly (Post 9) are the least appealing win candidates. Prima (Post 5) may benefit from an inside stalking trip, while Fairhopecurly (Post 9) must overcome the outside draw and a substantial morning-line price.
Selections
Win: Souper Sunday (Post 1)
Place: Wild Red (Post 7)
Show: Unheard (Post 3)
Betting Strategy
Use Souper Sunday (Post 1) in exactas with Wild Red (Post 7), Unheard (Post 3), Quiet Maddelena (Post 2), and Saucy Name (Post 8). Wild Red (Post 7) is the preferred win saver if the favorite is below fair value. A small trifecta key with Souper Sunday (Post 1) and Wild Red (Post 7) on top offers the best structure.
Race 5 — Post (5:06)/4:06/3:06/2:06 — 1430f | D | CO | OClm 40000 | AOF | Purse $69,500
Pace Analysis
This 7-furlong optional claimer should feature a legitimate but manageable pace. Shimmering Frost (Post 1), Awesome Grace (Post 6), and Matoaka (Post 4) are the main speed influences. Charming Jackie (Post 3) and Swifty Kim (Post 7) can stalk.
The key tactical question is whether Shimmering Frost (Post 1) can use the rail without being pressured by Awesome Grace (Post 6). If the two favorites race too aggressively, Matoaka (Post 4) becomes particularly dangerous. If Awesome Grace (Post 6) is allowed to sit just outside, her post may provide the superior trip.
Key Contenders
Awesome Grace (Post 6) is the preferred win choice. The outside draw should allow Rafael Manuel Hernandez to watch the pace develop and choose whether to press or stalk. She is one of the two morning-line favorites, but her trip appears less complicated than that of Shimmering Frost (Post 1).
Shimmering Frost (Post 1) remains a major threat. Sahin Civaci is the most prominent rider in the field by reputation and should be able to save ground. The concern is whether the rail position forces an unnecessarily aggressive ride during the opening stages.
Secondary Choices
Matoaka (Post 4) is the best value among the primary contenders. The middle post is ideal for a horse that can either press or track, and Xarel Forde should be able to avoid the worst of the pace pressure.
Charming Jackie (Post 3) has a useful post and should be included in exactas. Tweeternity (Post 2) is another ground-saving horse who could improve enough to complete the exotics.
Longshots
Swifty Kim (Post 7) is the only remaining runner and must work out a trip from the outside. Pietro Moran may have to either commit early or take back, making the horse difficult to evaluate at the morning-line price.
Selections
Win: Awesome Grace (Post 6)
Place: Matoaka (Post 4)
Show: Shimmering Frost (Post 1)
Betting Strategy
Awesome Grace (Post 6) is a playable win wager at 5-2 or better. Use an exacta key with Awesome Grace (Post 6) over Matoaka (Post 4), Shimmering Frost (Post 1), Charming Jackie (Post 3), and Tweeternity (Post 2). Add Matoaka (Post 4) over Awesome Grace (Post 6) as a saver. This is one of the stronger races for a two-horse win strategy.
Race 6 — Post (5:35)/4:35/3:35/2:35 — 1210f | D | AO | OClm 50000n2x | BUM | Purse $128,200
Pace Analysis
Race 6 is the class feature and should be run at a sharp 6-furlong pace. Sinclairity (Post 1) and Minimum Forty (Post 2) are the two primary speed horses, while Scary Speedy (Post 4) and Give Me The Boots (Post 5) can keep them honest.
The inside pairing creates the main handicapping issue. If Sinclairity (Post 1) and Minimum Forty (Post 2) duel from the start, the race could set up for Give Me The Boots (Post 5), who has the best apparent opportunity to make one sustained run. If one of the inside favorites concedes the lead, that horse becomes especially dangerous.
Key Contenders
Sinclairity (Post 1) is the top selection by a narrow margin. The horse has the rail, the morning-line favoritism, and the benefit of a high-purse allowance setting. Pietro Moran must avoid getting pinned behind Minimum Forty (Post 2), but the inside position could produce a ground-saving trip.
Minimum Forty (Post 2) is equally plausible as a win candidate. Daisuke Fukumoto can either challenge for the lead or sit directly behind Sinclairity (Post 1). This horse is the most likely to benefit if Sinclairity (Post 1) fails to break sharply.
Secondary Choices
Give Me The Boots (Post 5) is the preferred upset candidate. The outside-middle post gives Fraser Aebly room to maneuver, and a contested pace would enhance the horse's chances. At 4-1, this is the best value among the principal contenders.
Scary Speedy (Post 4) has enough pace to remain in contact and could complete the exacta if the two favorites run to form. Luz De La Luna (Post 6) is another logical underneath horse, particularly if the race becomes more tactical than expected.
Longshots
Cara Cara (Post 3) is the longest-priced runner and needs a significant improvement. The inside-middle draw is not unfavorable, but the horse will need to produce a better effort than the morning line anticipates.
Selections
Win: Give Me The Boots (Post 5)
Place: Sinclairity (Post 1)
Show: Minimum Forty (Post 2)
Betting Strategy
This is the best value race on the card. Use Give Me The Boots (Post 5) as a win wager at 7-2 or higher and key the horse over Sinclairity (Post 1), Minimum Forty (Post 2), Scary Speedy (Post 4), and Luz De La Luna (Post 6). For exactas, box Give Me The Boots (Post 5), Sinclairity (Post 1), and Minimum Forty (Post 2). The most attractive Pick 4 single is not obvious here; use Give Me The Boots (Post 5) as a spread horse rather than a single.
Race 7 — Post (6:04)/5:04/4:04/3:04 — 1320f | D | CO | OClm 40000 | BUN | Purse $69,500
Pace Analysis
Mor Joe's Spirit (Post 4) and Named Firey (Post 5) are the clear pace centerpieces. Flyonbye (Post 1) and Lohan (Post 3) should be close enough to apply pressure, while Navy Street (Post 2) and Sir Falstaff (Post 6) may benefit if the pace becomes demanding.
The race could turn into a high-quality tactical sprint. Mor Joe's Spirit (Post 4) has the ideal central post for a stalking or pressing trip, whereas Named Firey (Post 5) may need to use speed to avoid losing position. If those two engage early, Flyonbye (Post 1) becomes more interesting as a ground-saving alternative.
Key Contenders
Mor Joe's Spirit (Post 4) is the top selection. The 2-1 morning line is justified by the central post and the ability to secure a clean stalking position. Luis Reyes should have several options and should not need to commit to the lead immediately.
Named Firey (Post 5) is the main threat. Romero Ramsay Maragh may be able to place the horse just outside Mor Joe's Spirit (Post 4), producing the type of trip that wins many 6-furlong optional claimers.
Secondary Choices
Flyonbye (Post 1) is the best alternative at the price. The rail can be valuable if the horse breaks cleanly and saves ground throughout. Pietro Moran must avoid being trapped behind tiring speed, but the horse is capable of finishing strongly from a stalking position.
Lohan (Post 3) is another contender for the exotics. The post is favorable, and Douglas Christoff should be able to maintain a forward position without spending too much energy.
Longshots
Navy Street (Post 2) is the most interesting longshot. The horse could receive a perfect trip if the two favorites duel, and the inside post allows Aebly to save ground.
Sir Falstaff (Post 6) has the widest draw and the longest morning-line price. Ryan Munger will need to ration speed and hope the leaders come back late, but the horse belongs on the far outside of larger trifecta tickets.
Selections
Win: Mor Joe's Spirit (Post 4)
Place: Named Firey (Post 5)
Show: Flyonbye (Post 1)
Betting Strategy
Use Mor Joe's Spirit (Post 4) and Named Firey (Post 5) as a small exacta box, then add Flyonbye (Post 1), Lohan (Post 3), and Navy Street (Post 2) underneath. Navy Street (Post 2) is the preferred win saver if the early pace appears especially aggressive.
Race 8 — Post (6:33)/5:33/4:33/3:33 — 1540f | D | M | Md 10000 | BUM | Purse $33,700
Pace Analysis
The closing 7-furlong maiden claimer lacks an obvious dominant front-runner. Miss Brit (Post 2), Lemon Sweets (Post 9), and Ruby's Appeal (Post 11) are the most likely to race forwardly, while Spirit Of Indy (Post 3) should have the opportunity to stalk.
A moderate pace would favor the horses drawn inside and close to the lead. The outside runners must avoid losing too much ground before the first turn. If the pace becomes unsettled, Lemon Sweets (Post 9) and Ruby's Appeal (Post 11) have enough tactical position to remain dangerous.
Key Contenders
Miss Brit (Post 2) is the top selection. The 3-1 morning line reflects a favorable post and a manageable race shape. Daisuke Fukumoto should be able to save ground and keep the horse within striking distance.
Lemon Sweets (Post 9) is the main danger. The outside post is not ideal, but the horse has enough tactical speed to avoid being buried. Keveh Nicholls may try to secure a stalking position before the turn.
Secondary Choices
Spirit Of Indy (Post 3) is the preferred value alternative. The inside-middle post should provide a clean trip, and Romero Ramsay Maragh can keep the horse close without forcing the pace.
Ruby's Appeal (Post 11) has the most difficult draw among the principal contenders but should not be ignored. Rafael Manuel Hernandez will need to avoid a wide trip, but the horse is usable if the pace becomes stronger than expected.
That's A Fact (Post 7) is another viable secondary choice. The post is workable, and Pietro Moran should be able to settle behind the leading group.
Longshots
Danish Cookie (Post 5) has an efficient post and could improve enough to affect the exotics. Tallawah (Post 1) has the rail and may benefit from a ground-saving trip, although the horse must show more early speed.
Flightmare (Post 4), C And J On Holiday (Post 6), and Bermuda Brew (Post 8) are all large-priced runners who need substantial improvement. Their best chance is to capitalize on a pace collapse or a troubled trip by one of the favorites.
Super Red (Post 10) has a difficult outside position but is more usable than the longest-priced runners because the post at least provides a clear lane. The horse belongs on the bottom of deep trifectas.
Selections
Win: Miss Brit (Post 2)
Place: Spirit Of Indy (Post 3)
Show: Lemon Sweets (Post 9)
Betting Strategy
Use Miss Brit (Post 2) over Spirit Of Indy (Post 3), Lemon Sweets (Post 9), Ruby's Appeal (Post 11), and That's A Fact (Post 7). Danish Cookie (Post 5) is the preferred longshot for the bottom of exactas and trifectas. Avoid taking a short price on Lemon Sweets (Post 9) because the outside draw could make the trip considerably more difficult.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Sahin Civaci rides Shimmering Frost (Race 5, Post 1), one of the card's two morning-line favorites in Race 5. The inside draw places a premium on an alert break and early position.
Ryan Munger has mounts on Flashy Affair (Race 1, Post 2), Kavala (Race 2, Post 9), and Sir Falstaff (Race 7, Post 6). His most favorable setup is Flashy Affair (Race 1, Post 2), where the horse can secure a stalking trip without needing to cross the entire field.
Pietro Moran has mounts on Glint Over Essa (Race 1, Post 6), Kavala (Race 2, Post 9), Wild Red (Race 4, Post 7), Sinclairity (Race 6, Post 1), and Flyonbye (Race 7, Post 1). His strongest opportunities appear to be Glint Over Essa (Race 1, Post 6), Wild Red (Race 4, Post 7), and Sinclairity (Race 6, Post 1).
Fraser Aebly rides Oh Oh Seven (Race 3, Post 7), Give Me The Boots (Race 6, Post 5), and Navy Street (Race 7, Post 2). Oh Oh Seven (Race 3, Post 7) is the most likely winner of that group, while Give Me The Boots (Race 6, Post 5) is the most attractive wagering value.
Daisuke Fukumoto rides Minimum Forty (Race 6, Post 2) and Miss Brit (Race 8, Post 2). Both horses have useful inside posts, and Miss Brit (Race 8, Post 2) is particularly well placed in the finale.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Katerina Vassilieva sends out Flashy Affair (Race 1, Post 2), the leading contender in the opening race. The horse's main advantage is the combination of a favorable post and a race shape that should allow a stalking trip.
William Tharrenos has Glint Over Essa (Race 1, Post 6) and Swifty Kim (Race 5, Post 7). Glint Over Essa (Race 1, Post 6) has the more favorable overall setup and should receive the cleaner trip.
Devon Gittens has Gretna Green (Race 2, Post 6) and Just Follow Me (Race 4, Post 6). Gretna Green (Race 2, Post 6) is the stronger of the two and is a logical single-race contender.
John Mattine trains Peace Offering (Race 3, Post 4) and Cara Cara (Race 6, Post 3). Peace Offering (Race 3, Post 4) is the more attractive horse because of the middle draw and the pace setup.
Kerron Palmer has Crumlin Trouble (Race 2, Post 8), Wild Red (Race 4, Post 7), and Saucy Name (Race 4, Post 8). Wild Red (Race 4, Post 7) is the best chance to improve on the morning line, while Crumlin Trouble (Race 2, Post 8) is best used underneath.
Kevin Attard trains Sinclairity (Race 6, Post 1), one of the principal horses in the card's highest-purse race. The rail post makes the break and first turn especially important.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The strongest value play is Give Me The Boots (Race 6, Post 5). The horse should benefit from pressure between Sinclairity (Race 6, Post 1) and Minimum Forty (Race 6, Post 2), and the 4-1 morning line is more appealing than the shorter prices on the inside pair.
Matoaka (Race 5, Post 4) is the second-best value option. The middle post gives the horse a clean tactical opportunity, and the expected pace makes Matoaka (Race 5, Post 4) more attractive than the double-digit runners.
Wild Red (Race 4, Post 7) is the preferred upset candidate in Race 4. The horse can stalk outside the inside speed and may be the beneficiary if Souper Sunday (Race 4, Post 1) and Unheard (Race 4, Post 3) battle early.
The most logical early Pick 3 sequence is:
Race 1: Flashy Affair (Post 2), Glint Over Essa (Post 6)
Race 2: Gretna Green (Post 6), Misty Eyed (Post 3), Kavala (Post 9)
Race 3: Oh Oh Seven (Post 7), Peace Offering (Post 4)
A more aggressive Pick 4 structure beginning with Race 5 is:
Race 5: Shimmering Frost (Post 1), Awesome Grace (Post 6), Matoaka (Post 4)
Race 6: Sinclairity (Post 1), Minimum Forty (Post 2), Give Me The Boots (Post 5)
Race 7: Mor Joe's Spirit (Post 4), Named Firey (Post 5), Flyonbye (Post 1)
Race 8: Miss Brit (Post 2), Spirit Of Indy (Post 3), Lemon Sweets (Post 9), Ruby's Appeal (Post 11)
The preferred straight wagers are Flashy Affair (Race 1, Post 2), Gretna Green (Race 2, Post 6), Awesome Grace (Race 5, Post 6), Give Me The Boots (Race 6, Post 5), Mor Joe's Spirit (Race 7, Post 4), and Miss Brit (Race 8, Post 2). The best exacta keys are Awesome Grace (Race 5, Post 6) over Matoaka (Race 5, Post 4) and Give Me The Boots (Race 6, Post 5) over Sinclairity (Race 6, Post 1) and Minimum Forty (Race 6, Post 2).
Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.
Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
