Laurel Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 21, 2025

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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Laurel Park’s Friday, November 21, 2025 card features a mix of maiden, claiming, and allowance turf and dirt events, with large fields in several races making for an excellent wagering environment. The races range from competitive maiden specials for juveniles to strong starter and optional claiming contests for older horses. Scratches and notable recent running lines are particularly important, as several contenders enter off off-the-turf runs or layoff returns, and the turf may be affected if weather dictates a surface switch. Lasix restrictions apply in several races, most notably for two-year-olds and certain allowance conditions, which may impact trainer intent and post-race performances. Consensus handicapper analysis points towards competitive races with potential for price horses to factor prominently, especially in larger fields and turf sprints.

Weather and Track Conditions

Currently, forecasted weather for Laurel Park calls for chilly early afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, with partly cloudy skies. Overnight drizzle left some lingering moisture, so track surfaces are listed as “fast” for dirt races and “firm to good” for turf events, barring any late switches. There are no expectations for additional precipitation, but monitor official updates in case of off-turf switches or surface downgrades closer to post time.

Track Bias and Post Position Trends

Recent track profiles favor mid-to-inside draws for turf sprints and main track sprints; speed horses have performed well, but closers can be dangerous if pace heats up. There is no significant post bias on dirt, but outside posts are slightly less favorable on turf sprints, especially if fields stay large and rails are at 52 feet. Be aware of “main track only” runners and adjust if races switch off the turf.

1st Race – Maiden Special Weight – 5.5 Furlongs Turf (F 2yo)

Post Time

12:00PM CST

Pace Analysis

With several first-time starters, expect forward movement from Speedy Trial, Paynted by Nancy, and Best Girl Magic early, setting up a potentially quick pace if the field remains intact. If the race stays on turf, closers and stalkers may get a favorable setup.

Key Contenders

  • Speedy Trial (Hazlewood Yedsit / Smith Hamilton A.): Long works and debut rail draw make her a threat to set the pace or clear early.
  • Pub Queen (IRE) (Carrasco Victor R. / Delacour Arnaud): Travels well for a sharp barn, good grass pedigree, and competitive debut figures, fits well if the race stays on turf.
  • Christmas Jones (Carrasco Victor R. / Brion Keri): Draws capable jock, nice works, and may benefit from quick early fractions setting up her late run.

Secondary Choices

  • Beward of Ooh Lala (Sanchez Mychel J. / Trombetta Michael J.): Has shown steady works, and connections do well in these spots.
  • Best Girl Magic (Toledo Jevian / Duarte, Jr. Jorge): Pedigree suggests fast early speed, but needs to avoid tiring late.

Longshots

  • Clearly Sophia (Mena Raul E. / Gorham Michael E.): May get overlooked but posted decent works and could improve second out or if pace collapses.
  • Groovy N Gray (Chuan Martin / Ness Jamie): Barn wins in these spots with overlooked maidens, consider underneath.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Look for value underneath with mid-price stalkers and closers in vertical plays. Exacta and trifecta boxes focusing on Speedy Trial, Pub Queen (IRE), Christmas Jones, and price horses like Groovy N Gray are attractive.

Selections

Win: Pub Queen (IRE)
Place: Speedy Trial
Show: Christmas Jones

2nd Race – Starter Optional Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt (3up)

Post Time

12:28PM CST

Pace Analysis

Forward Move and Irish Hero add pace pressure from the inside, while The Wolfman and Excellent Timing may stalk just off the leaders. Race should favor tactical speed horses who can sit just behind the first flight.

Key Contenders

  • Forward Move (Sanchez Mychel J. / Ness Jamie): Top threat shipping in sharp form, posts good recent figures, and rates just off the speed.
  • Irish Hero (Perez Xavier / Robb John J.): Steps up, but owns speed advantage and seeks to control the race from a favorable post.
  • The Wolfman (Kocakaya Gokhan / Magee Kieron): Older gelding back in good form, class edge in starter ranks.

Secondary Choices

  • Pit Stop Man (Barbosa Jeiron / Magee Kieron): Could get a nice stalking trip for a minor award.
  • Amusing Mischief (Cruz Angel / Wagner Karin): Reliable at this level, honest runner, needs race shape to collapse up front.

Longshots

  • Pay Zone (Hazlewood Yedsit / Farrior Anthony): Could improve at a price if race melts down late.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Exacta boxes with Forward Move and Irish Hero, key The Wolfman for mid exotics, and consider using Amusing Mischief in deeper trifectas.

Selections

Win: Forward Move
Place: Irish Hero
Show: The Wolfman

3rd Race – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile Turf (F&M 3up)

Post Time

12:57PM CST

Pace Analysis

Churning Berni figures to lead, but Dona Luna and Katarzyna have enough pressing speed to ensure a genuine pace. Stalkers could benefit if early pace is contested.

Key Contenders

  • Churning Berni (Sanchez Mychel J. / Ness Jamie): May clear early, draws well for turf mile, and rates as the class of the group.
  • Sugar Magnolia (IRE) (Hazlewood Yedsit / Delacour Arnaud): Solid turf pedigree, connections signal aggressive placement, and should be running late.
  • Mysunshinegirl (Toledo Jevian / Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo): Mid-pack runner who owns consistent efforts and reliable finish.

Secondary Choices

  • Katarzyna (Cruz Angel / Sillaman Richard P.): Often thereabouts, but pace must help her closing style.
  • Dona Luna (Carrasco Victor R. / Rivera Justin): Steps up, fits at this condition.

Longshots

  • Magic Moon Spell (Chuan Martin / Williams, Jr. Gary L.): Recent form is spotty, but barn can pop with overlooked turf runners.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Focus on win-exacta with Churning Berni and Sugar Magnolia (IRE), use Mysunshinegirl underneath, and add Katarzyna for trifectas.

Selections

Win: Churning Berni
Place: Sugar Magnolia (IRE)
Show: Mysunshinegirl

4th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt (2yo)

Post Time

1:26PM CST

Pace Analysis

Mo Missile may gun for the lead, with Worker Bee and Bonsai Warrior prominent early. Race will favor horses able to sit a trip and finish strongly.

Key Contenders

  • Bonsai Warrior (Carrasco Victor R. / Gonzalez Claudio A.): Tactical speed with proven form, could work out ideal trip.
  • Lundi Loot (Rocco, Jr. Joseph / Ashby Lynn A.): Can rally off the pace and draws a capable jock for the day.
  • Blue Forty Two (Chuan Martin / Cibelli Jane): Reliable allowance competitor, well placed to stalk and pounce.

Secondary Choices

  • Mo Missile (Toledo Jevian / Capuano Phillip): Assuming a clean break, pace advantage could win for him if not pressured too strongly.
  • Mr. Supreme (Briceno Jean Gregor / Corrales Jose): Could improve second out, fits for minor awards.

Longshots

  • Worker Bee (Hazlewood Yedsit / Capuano Gary): Needs race shape to melt, but possible huge price in exotics.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Key Bonsai Warrior for win, box with Blue Forty Two and Lundi Loot. Use longshots in supers and deeper trifectas for price plays.

Selections

Win: Bonsai Warrior
Place: Lundi Loot
Show: Blue Forty Two

5th Race – Starter Optional Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs Turf (3up)

Post Time

1:55PM CST

Pace Analysis

Rapidity and Uncle Dar are speed types, should contest early lead with Street Rockin and Great Artist pressing. Wide posts could disadvantage front runners if pace is pressured.

Key Contenders

  • Rapidity (Carrasco Victor R. / Shankle Joanne): Rails draw, gets pace advantage, connections excel in turf sprints.
  • Beltane (Barbosa Jeiron / Aguirre, Jr. Anthony): Consistent, will be rolling late, fits well for turf profile today.
  • J R Jone Z (Beato Inoel / McClellan Erin C.): Draws in, typically fires in these conditions, live shot for minor awards.

Secondary Choices

  • Uncle Dar (Sanchez Mychel J. / Servis J. Tyler): Versatile, has winning turf sprint experience, needs clean trip.
  • Borletti (IRE) (Boyce Forest / Sillaman Richard P.): Should be running late if the pace is pressured up front.

Longshots

  • Kohoutek (Mena Raul E. / White Sarah): Fits for minor exotics, needs a meltdown to win.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Box Rapidity and Beltane in verticals, use Borletti (IRE) and Uncle Dar for value, spread in trifectas if favorites look vulnerable.

Selections

Win: Rapidity
Place: Beltane
Show: Uncle Dar

6th Race – Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs Dirt (F 2yo)

Post Time

2:25PM CST

Pace Analysis

My Girl Back Home, Quality Swag, and Sweet Lexi all have the potential for speed, setting up a brisk early pace. Look for a stalker to take advantage if the leaders compromise each other.

Key Contenders

  • Sweet Lexi (Sanchez Mychel J. / Trombetta Michael J.): Debuts with excellent works, barn is hot in this division, tactical speed likely.
  • My Girl Back Home (Lopez Carlos Eduardo / Capuano Phillip): Rails draw helps, looks ready for big effort, pedigree fits.
  • Watch Me Sparkle (Cruz Angel / Gonzalez Claudio A.): Good works, could sit perfect trip for barn that specializes in juvenile fillies.

Secondary Choices

  • Quality Swag (Torrealba J.G. / De Paz Horacio): Well-placed, should be improved off debut, fits for exotics.
  • Pokey Dot (Mena Raul E. / Smith Hamilton A.): May show surprise speed, outside chance at a price.

Longshots

  • Juniper’s Jubilee (Hazlewood Yedsit / Capuano Gary): Possible improvement, underneath player in deeper tickets.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Box Sweet Lexi, My Girl Back Home, and Watch Me Sparkle, add Quality Swag for trifectas.

Selections

Win: Sweet Lexi
Place: My Girl Back Home
Show: Watch Me Sparkle

7th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs Turf (F&M 3up)

Post Time

2:54PM CST

Pace Analysis

Mizoula (IRE), Kilo Road, and Simply Stated figure to push the pace. Prime closers in this group may be able to rally if pace gets hot.

Key Contenders

  • Independenceavenue (Carrasco Victor R. / Delacour Arnaud): Top turf form, perfect trip likely with field size, reliable in high-class sprints.
  • Quadra (Boyce Forest / Delacour Arnaud): Up-and-comer, strong figures in turf sprints, will be closing late.
  • Mizoula (IRE) (Hazlewood Yedsit / Raven Kerri): Reliable speed, may hold on for at least a share if race stays on turf.

Secondary Choices

  • Simply Stated (Sanchez Mychel J. / Ness Jamie): Contender if trip works out, lists solid turf record.
  • Somnium (Torrealba J.G. / Merryman Elizabeth M.): Recent efforts are competitive, needs a patient ride.

Longshots

  • Touisset (Gomez Kevin / Allard Edward T.): Could factor if race falls apart up front, use in vertical spreads.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Box Independenceavenue and Quadra for win-exacta, use Mizoula (IRE) and Touisset for deeper exotics.

Selections

Win: Independenceavenue
Place: Quadra
Show: Mizoula (IRE)

8th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming – 5.5 Furlongs Turf (2yo)

Post Time

3:24PM CST

Pace Analysis

Jigger, The Pauly Factor, Ballykeefe will be on or near the lead, expect quick fractions. Race will likely set up best for tactical speed runners or late closers.

Key Contenders

  • The Pauly Factor (Carrasco Victor R. / Rodriguez Rudy R.): Checks all the boxes for turf sprint today, sharp works, top barn.
  • Boastfully Irish (Gomez Kevin / Motion H. Graham): Reliable form, should be closing late if pace collapses.
  • Aldene (Sanchez Mychel J. / Trombetta Michael J.): Good turf debut, room for improvement.

Secondary Choices

  • Jigger (Chuan Martin / Allen III A. Ferris): Dangerous if left alone on lead, big pace presence.
  • Polvellan (Rocco, Jr. Joseph / Ashby Lynn A.): Could pick up share with stalker’s trip.

Longshots

  • Jessica’s Eyes (Perez Xavier / Robb John J.): Live at a price, might take to turf for debut.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Key The Pauly Factor, box with Boastfully Irish and Aldene, use Jessica’s Eyes and Jigger for trifectas.

Selections

Win: The Pauly Factor
Place: Boastfully Irish
Show: Aldene

9th Race – Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt (F&M 3up)

Post Time

3:54PM CST

Pace Analysis

Persian and She’s Not a Lad have pace to lead, but Beautiful McClean and Over My Cents might apply pressure. Stalkers have a chance if pace heats up too much.

Key Contenders

  • Persian (Carrasco Victor R. / Gonzalez Claudio A.): Should set or press pace, consistent efforts make her dangerous.
  • She’s Not a Lad (Toledo Jevian / Salzman, Jr. John E.): Could clear, but has a tendency to tire late, needs to ration speed.
  • Beautiful McClean (Perez Xavier / Cooney Susan S.): Will be running late, likely to pick up pieces if leaders falter.

Secondary Choices

  • Tasty Time (Cruz Angel / Cox Kenneth M.): Good recent figures, needs race shape to help.
  • Nit Witness (Hazlewood Yedsit / Ness Jamie): Could sneak into exotics at a price.

Longshots

  • Over My Cents (Rodriguez Yan / Sanchez-Salomon Rodolfo): Could get a piece in superfectas, has racing experience.

Betting Strategy and Angles

Key Persian and Beautiful McClean, use She’s Not a Lad and Nit Witness for exotics.

Selections

Win: Persian
Place: Beautiful McClean
Show: She’s Not a Lad

Jockey Notes and Insights

Leading riders Jevian Toledo and Victor Carrasco appear well-mounted throughout the card, with Toledo live on Best Girl Magic, Mysunshinegirl, and She’s Not a Lad. Carrasco could have a strong day riding Pub Queen (IRE), Bonsai Warrior, Rapidity, Independenceavenue, and Persian. Mychel J. Sanchez and Kevin Gomez also have good opportunities in competitive fields and should be considered in exotics tickets for turf sprints and maiden specials.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Top trainers represented include Jamie Ness (Speedy Trial, Forward Move, Churning Berni) who has been sharp in Maryland starter ranks, Michael Trombetta (Beware of Ooh Lala, Sweet Lexi, Aldene), and the Delacour stable with Irish imports positioned for turf races (Pub Queen, Quadra, Independenceavenue, Sugar Magnolia). Claudio A. Gonzalez has contenders in allowance and maiden sprints. Brittany Russell and Susan S. Cooney have live runners in claiming and state-bred events. Barn form and current win rates are strong indicators for play, especially for horses shifting distances or surfaces.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Large fields in turf sprint races present excellent opportunities for vertical exotics. Focus on pace projections to maximize value, with boxes and spreads in trifectas and superfectas. Top wagering angles today include keying consensus favorites in win-exactas while mixing in price-driven stalkers and closers. Do not ignore potential surface switches, which can radically affect both pace and runner suitability. Value plays are most potent in Race 5 and Race 7, where deeper fields and competitive odds should result in payoffs for contrarian, pace-informed plays.

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