Woodbine – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for December 5, 2025


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Woodbine returns to live racing today following the cancellation of Thursday’s card after the first race due to extreme cold weather conditions. Today’s eight-race program features a mix of maiden, claiming, and condition claiming races over the synthetic Tapeta surface, with first post time at 4:30 PM ET. The card includes purses ranging from $26,200 to $52,400, with competitive fields throughout the afternoon and evening.​

The December meet represents the final stretch of the 2025 Woodbine thoroughbred season, with horsemen looking to close out the year on a strong note. Several notable barns are represented across the card, including Kevin Attard, Robert P. Tiller, and Sid C. Attard, all of whom have been among the meet’s leading trainers.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Today’s weather forecast calls for a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon temperatures reaching a high of approximately 0°C (32°F). Morning temperatures will be cold, starting around -8°C, with gradual warming through the afternoon. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest at 11-14 km/h, with no precipitation expected throughout the racing program.​

The synthetic Tapeta surface should be listed as Fast and will provide consistent racing conditions despite the cold temperatures. Cold weather racing at Woodbine typically produces slightly slower overall times, but the Tapeta surface maintains its characteristic fairness and consistency regardless of temperature fluctuations. The all-weather track combines sand, rubber, and fiber materials to create a resilient surface that minimizes weather-related condition changes.​

Track maintenance was completed following Thursday’s abbreviated card, and the surface should provide a fair racing strip for all running styles throughout today’s program.

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Woodbine’s Tapeta surface has historically shown minimal bias compared to traditional dirt tracks. At sprint distances of 6 furlongs, post position statistics indicate posts 1 through 3 hold slight advantages, with the rail winning approximately 15% of races, post 2 winning 12%, and post 3 winning 11%. The synthetic surface was specifically designed to minimize post position bias, creating fairer racing conditions across all distances.​

For route races on the Tapeta, inside positions tend to produce favorable results, particularly when horses can establish position early without excessive speed duels. Speed bias is less pronounced on Tapeta compared to dirt surfaces, allowing for competitive racing from various running styles. The surface rewards tactical speed and positioning more than pure early pace pressure, creating opportunities for stalkers and closers to compete effectively with front-runners.​

Closers can win at Woodbine’s Tapeta surface when the pace collapses, as the reduced kickback allows horses to make sustained moves from off the pace. Today’s card features several races where pace scenarios may favor late-running types.​


Race 1 – Maiden Optional Claiming

Post Time: 4:30 PM ET

Five Furlongs on Synthetic. Purse $49,200. For Maidens, Two Years Old. Ontario Sired Maidens or Maiden Claiming $25,000.

Pace Analysis

This short sprint figures to see moderate to quick early fractions with Named Firey and potentially Lady Dayrells showing early foot. Mr. Perfect has shown closing ability from off the pace in his recent outings and should benefit if the early pace is contested. The five-furlong distance on the synthetic surface rewards horses that can accelerate quickly in the stretch, making tactical positioning through the turn critical.

Key Contenders

Mr. Perfect enters as the deserving favorite, taking a sharp class drop from maiden allowance company where he finished fifth, beaten only a few lengths, on November 23. Trained by Robert P. Tiller and piloted by meet-leading jockey Rafael Hernandez, this two-year-old gelding by Old Forester has shown consistent form with two seconds and two thirds from five career starts. The class relief here is significant, and based on his speed figures, he should handle this field comfortably.​

Lady Dayrells drops in to face males after lacking finish when facing OS/$40,000 fillies on November 22. The filly is eligible to race protected at this level and her speed figures compare favorably with these rivals. Austin Adams retains the mount at 110 pounds, and the weight break could prove advantageous in this short sprint.​

Secondary Choices

Named Firey showed early speed in his debut before giving way, then came to a stop when racing over a snowy track in his second start. He cuts back in distance today and receives class relief, which could spark improvement at a price. Jason Hoyte rides for trainer John Whalen.​

Swift Attraction has not been a stretch factor in either of his starts at the OS/$40,000 level but adds blinkers for his first start since October 13. Equipment changes can sometimes trigger improvement in young horses, making him a potential factor for the exotics.​

Longshots

Dave’s Legacy and Bettermustcome are both first-time starters or lightly raced juveniles facing a tough assignment against the more experienced horses in this field. They would need significant improvement to factor.​

Selections

Win: Mr. Perfect (6)

Place: Lady Dayrells (5)

Show: Named Firey (1)


Race 2 – Maiden Claiming

Post Time: 5:02 PM ET

Six Furlongs on Synthetic. Purse $27,400. For Maidens, Three Years Old and Upward. Claiming Price $7,500-$7,000.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario projects as moderate with Livininthefastlane likely to be favored and establish early position. Ginger’s Holiday figures to press from the rail, while Ashuka may need a clean break after stumbling at the start in his last outing. The honest early tempo should set up well for closers if the front runners engage in a pace battle.

Key Contenders

Glorious Revenge had some decent sprint efforts earlier in the season and will now cut back in distance after several unsuccessful route tries. He drops to the bottom maiden level and figures to offer good value. Cheyenne Kerr rides for trainer Anthony Pottinger.​

Livininthefastlane will likely be favored here as he halves in value off two subpar efforts. The mid-50 Beyer speed figures he produced three and four starts ago would handle this field comfortably. Eswan Flores has the mount for trainer Devon Gittens.​

Secondary Choices

Ginger’s Holiday chased the pacesetter and lost place in deep stretch when racing at this level on November 23. He looks to be in with a shot again with Pietro Moran aboard for Norman McKnight.​

Ashuka broke poorly from the outside post and finished midpack in the same race that Ginger’s Holiday exits. He should fare better in this shorter nine-horse field with Emma-Jayne Wilson riding.​

Longshots

Team Talabaat removes blinkers today, which could be a negative sign. The four-year-old has struggled throughout his career. Z Hub and Mikey Boy are both outclassed at this level based on recent form.​

Selections

Win: Glorious Revenge (7)

Place: Livininthefastlane (3)

Show: Ginger’s Holiday (2)


Race 3 – Claiming

Post Time: 5:34 PM ET

Six Furlongs on Synthetic. Purse $26,200. For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Claiming Price $5,000-$4,500.

Pace Analysis

Switzler Jammin figures as the pace factor after setting very moderate fractions when winning against $7,500 maidens on November 7. Doadster showed speed in his last outing and may press, potentially creating a more contentious pace scenario that could benefit the closers in this field.

Key Contenders

Another Charlie chased the pace and ran a good race to be third for $10,000 just 12 days ago. He halves in value today and looks very formidable at this level. Keveh Nicholls rides for Norman McKnight, and the drop in class should prove significant.​

Doadster briefly hit the front but was run down by Souper Iconic when beaten a neck at this level on October 31. The win-shy type has the figures to win against this field. Jermaine Bridgmohan has the mount for trainer John Mattine.​

Secondary Choices

Switzler Jammin set very moderate fractions and cruised to an easy score against $7,500 maidens on November 7. The pace figures to be quicker in this spot, which could prove challenging. Rafael Hernandez rides for Martin Drexler.​

Very Debonaire was running on nicely to be third at this level on November 20 and figures to pick up another minor share. Skye Chernetz rides for Devon Gittens.​

Longshots

Irish Deputy drops in class and could improve at a price with Pietro Moran riding. Lemon Twist removes blinkers today, which is worth monitoring.​

Selections

Win: Another Charlie (3)

Place: Doadster (5)

Show: Switzler Jammin (8)


Race 4 – Claiming

Post Time: 6:05 PM ET

Six and One Half Furlongs on Synthetic. Purse $26,200. For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races. Claiming Price $5,000-$4,500.

Pace Analysis

This race features several horses capable of showing early speed. Little Red Domi showed good speed last time, The New Maybe can show early foot from the inside, and Heat Merchant typically stalks the pace. The projected honest early tempo could set up nicely for closers if the speed horses engage.

Key Contenders

Heat Merchant was beaten just a head by the back-classy Echo With Laughter when dropping in for this tag on November 22. A repeat of that effort should be enough to beat this field. Xarel Forde rides for Pat Parente.​

Little Red Domi has had two good runner-up finishes since dropping in for lower tags and adding blinkers. This versatile type showed good speed last time but finished well from midpack two starts back. Rafael Hernandez rides for Kevin Attard.​

Secondary Choices

The New Maybe got in for this tag on November 14 and ran a solid third. He is capable of showing some speed and should be well-positioned from the inside post. Austin Adams rides for Robert P. Tiller.​

Chairman Bob is getting massive class relief here, dropping down from the starter/optional $15,000 ranks. He is typically at his best routing but should be competitive here based on class alone. Christoff Douglas rides with a five-pound apprentice allowance.​

Longshots

Souper Iconic is on the scratch watch after being scratched from his last start by stewards. Adelaide Court adds blinkers today, which could spark improvement for the seven-year-old.​

Selections

Win: Heat Merchant (7)

Place: Little Red Domi (6)

Show: The New Maybe (2)


Race 5 – Claiming

Post Time: 6:35 PM ET

One Mile and One Sixteenth on Synthetic. Purse $34,200. For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Claiming Price $10,000-$9,500.

Pace Analysis

The pace projects as moderate with several horses capable of showing early speed. Highly Potent will try to force the issue from the rail, while Compton may press. The two-turn distance allows sufficient time for closers to rally if the pace becomes contested.

Key Contenders

Paradise Perfect is aggressively spotted here, dropping in for $10,000 for his first start against winners after a $25,000 maiden win on November 21. He has not had a bad effort all year and should be able to double up. Pietro Moran rides for Krista Cole.​

Highly Potent tried to force the hand of the eventual winner but came up empty when racing for $25,000 on November 14. He gets in easier today and should be well spotted from the inside post. Keveh Nicholls rides for Philip Hall.​

Secondary Choices

Professor Reload has taken to the two-turn distance very well with a win and two seconds in three tries, most recently finishing second to the class-plunging American Decision. Hopefully he can work out a trip from his outside post. Xarel Forde rides for Patrick Dixon.​

Lost Star had a wide trip and failed to factor in the same $25,000 race that Highly Potent exits. The question is whether he improves with the easier company today. Jodeien Anderson rides for Marjorie A. Paterson, and this is the horse’s first start on Lasix.​

Longshots

Compton figures to be involved in the early pace and could hang around for a minor share. Blondina’s Boy is on the scratch watch after multiple recent steward scratches.​

Selections

Win: Paradise Perfect (7)

Place: Highly Potent (1)

Show: Professor Reload (9)


Race 6 – Claiming

Post Time: 7:05 PM ET

One Mile and One Sixteenth on Synthetic. Purse $52,400. For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Claiming Price $25,000-$23,500.

Pace Analysis

Connor has been chasing the pace in recent starts and finds a field where he could be the controlling speed. Silver Raleigh typically shows early foot as well, which could create an honest pace scenario. The two-turn distance and projected pace pressure creates opportunities for late-running closers.

Key Contenders

Connor has been chasing the pace and coming up empty in recent starts against tougher company. He gets class relief today and finds a field where he could control the pace. Keveh Nicholls rides for Julia Carey.​

Stratus has not run a bad race all season, most recently finishing fourth behind solid foes in the Lake Ontario Stakes. He drops in for $25,000 for the first time since his maiden win. Daisuke Fukumoto rides for Robert P. Tiller, who has been strong with this jockey combination this meet.​​

Secondary Choices

Sluggernaut took an edge plunging in to face $10,000 maidens last week and crushed his competition by 6½ lengths. The Kevin Attard barn has been spotting horses aggressively, so the fact that he is rising in value can be seen as a positive. Rafael Hernandez rides.​

Yorkton’s Honour is a rebound factor on the class drop after getting a wide trip over an inside-favoring course on November 20. Pietro Moran rides for Sid C. Attard.​

Longshots

Silver Raleigh has shown early speed and consistency with one win and seven seconds from 16 career starts. Highland Peak won his last start but would need to improve significantly to factor at this level.​

Selections

Win: Stratus (6)

Place: Connor (4)

Show: Sluggernaut (7)


Race 7 – Claiming

Post Time: 7:35 PM ET

Five and One Half Furlongs on Synthetic. Purse $39,900. For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races. Claiming Price $15,000-$14,000.

Pace Analysis

The pace setup looks favorable for closers in this spot. Rhaenyra and Magic Power figure to contest the early lead, which could set up nicely for stalkers and closers like Groot and Tiger Town. The 5.5-furlong distance provides enough real estate for late movers to close the gap if the pace is honest.

Key Contenders

Groot came up empty after pressing between horses in a tough field of $25,000 foes for his first start off the claim. He gets back in for $15,000 and could be a factor with a more comfortable trip. Xarel Forde rides for Philip Hall.​

Tiger Town settled very nicely and was able to rally well when a seam appeared to win his non-two for this tag on November 20. That was a new dimension for this previously front-end-oriented gelding and could have been a major confidence booster. Eswan Flores rides for John A. Coryat. Note: This horse is on the scratch watch.​

Secondary Choices

Cooler Man was running on well to be third, 2¼ lengths behind Magic Power, when last racing on November 22. The pace setup could be kind to a closer like him. Jalon Samuel rides for Nicholas Nosowenko.​

Rhaenyra plunges in value and takes on the boys after coming to a stop as the favorite on October 31. The question is whether she can out-sprint Magic Power to the early lead. Christoff Douglas rides with his five-pound apprentice allowance for Kevin Attard.​

Longshots

Magic Power will likely be heavily bet based on recent form and figures as a major pace factor. Jmr Speedy Escape has some early speed but may need a perfect trip to factor.​

Selections

Win: Groot (2)

Place: Tiger Town (4)

Show: Cooler Man (5)


Race 8 – Claiming

Post Time: 8:05 PM ET

Five and One Half Furlongs on Synthetic. Purse $26,900. For Three Year Olds and Upward. Claiming Price $5,000-$4,500.

Pace Analysis

Nameofthegame figures as the primary pace factor if he can get loose on the lead. Mamba On Three typically stalks the pace, while Harper City will need to recover from early bumping in his last start. The pace scenario favors Mamba On Three, who should be able to track the early speed and pounce in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Mamba On Three was a very comfortable winner for $7,500 on November 21. He has been a consistent money maker this season and should be tough on the drop in for $5,000. Keveh Nicholls rides for Zeljko Krcmar. Note: This horse is on the scratch watch.​

Highland Society has gone off form this fall, failing to be competitive in his three most recent starts. However, he is a horse who has been able to rebound from poor efforts in the past. He is taken off Lasix this time, which could be a benefit. Emma-Jayne Wilson rides for Ronald H. Sadler.​

Secondary Choices

Harper City fell back to last after early bumping but rallied well to be third behind Mamba On Three last time. He looks like a logical contender here. Pietro Moran rides for Allen Desruisseaux.​

Nameofthegame cleared to the lead from the 14 hole and was run down late by the very in-form Dissectologist when last racing on November 7. If he can get loose early today, he might be tough to run down. Austin Adams rides for Daniel Wills.​

Longshots

Awesome Crusader had a rough trip and ran on to a midpack finish in the Mamba On Three race and continues to drop in class looking to get back into form. Rafael Hernandez rides for Martin Drexler.​

Rye’s My Guy adds blinkers today, which could spark improvement for this lightly raced four-year-old.​

Selections

Win: Mamba On Three (5)

Place: Harper City (2)

Show: Awesome Crusader (3)


Jockey Notes and Insights

Rafael Hernandez leads the Woodbine jockey standings with 135 wins from 594 starts at a 23% win rate and 49% in-the-money rate for the current meet. The 2020 Sovereign Award winner for Outstanding Jockey continues to be the go-to rider at Woodbine and has accumulated over $8.5 million in purse earnings this season. He has key mounts in Races 1, 3, 4, 6, and 8 today.​

Pietro Moran ranks second in the standings with 132 wins from 784 starts at a 17% win rate and 48% in-the-money rate. His high volume of mounts demonstrates the trust trainers place in this jockey. He has significant mounts in Races 2, 5, 6, and 8.​

Eswan Flores has been riding well with 65 wins from 436 starts (15% win rate) and has a 39% in-the-money rate. He rides the likely favorite Livininthefastlane in Race 2 and Tiger Town in Race 7.​

Austin Adams is an apprentice jockey working on his five-pound bug, riding at a 10% win rate with 38 wins from 385 starts. He has mounts in Races 1, 4, 5, 7, and 8 today.​

Christoff Douglas is another apprentice making the most of his weight allowance, with key mounts aboard Chairman Bob (Race 4) and Rhaenyra (Race 7).

Daisuke Fukumoto has developed an excellent partnership with trainer Robert P. Tiller, recording a 32% win rate from 59 starts for the Hall of Fame conditioner. He rides the top selection Stratus in Race 6.​


Trainer Notes and Insights

Robert P. Tiller ranks fourth in the trainer standings with 42 wins from 202 starts (21% win rate) and 50% in-the-money rate. The Canadian Horse Racing Hall of Famer continues to be among Woodbine’s leading trainers, particularly in the sprint division. He sends out Mr. Perfect (Race 1), The New Maybe (Race 4), and Stratus (Race 6) today.​

Kevin Attard sits third in the standings with 63 wins from 390 starts (16% win rate) and 46% in-the-money rate. The Sovereign Award-winning trainer has been aggressive spotting horses lately and has key runners in Little Red Domi (Race 4), Sluggernaut (Race 6), and Rhaenyra (Race 7).​

Martin Drexler ranks second among trainers with 74 wins from 390 starts (19% win rate) and 48% in-the-money rate. He sends out Switzler Jammin (Race 3) and Awesome Crusader (Race 8).​

Norman McKnight saddles Ginger’s Holiday (Race 2) and Another Charlie (Race 3), the top selection in Race 3. His barn has been competitive throughout the meet.

Devon Gittens has 38 wins from 233 starts (16% win rate) with Livininthefastlane (Race 2) and Very Debonaire (Race 3) among his runners today.​

Sid C. Attard has 28 wins from 209 starts (13% win rate) and sends out Yorkton’s Honour in Race 6. The veteran trainer has decades of experience at Woodbine.​

Philip Hall has horses throughout the card including Highly Potent (Race 5) and Groot (Race 7), with Groot being a key selection.

John Mattine sends out Doadster (Race 3) and Magic Power (Race 7), both of whom figure prominently in their respective races.


Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The card presents several opportunities for value wagering, particularly in the middle and late portions of the program.

In Race 1, Mr. Perfect is the standout play as the Best Bet of the card. The sharp class drop from maiden allowance company makes him very tough to beat at what should be a reasonable price. Consider using him as a single in multi-race wagers.​

Race 2 offers value with Glorious Revenge, who figures to offer good odds while cutting back in distance after several unsuccessful route tries. The drop to bottom-level maiden claiming should prove beneficial.

Race 3 features a competitive field where Another Charlie represents solid value on the class drop. Consider a trifecta or superfecta with Another Charlie on top, keying Doadster and Switzler Jammin underneath.

Race 4 presents Heat Merchant as a strong play based on his narrow loss to a better horse last time. The exacta box with Heat Merchant and Little Red Domi offers good value.

Race 5 showcases Paradise Perfect making his first start against winners after an impressive maiden score. He represents the type of aggressive spot that often pays off.

Race 6 offers a chance to beat the public choice if Connor can control the pace. Consider Stratus in the win pool with Sluggernaut as a key exacta partner, given the Kevin Attard barn’s aggressive spotting patterns.

Race 7 features a potentially contentious pace that should set up well for Groot to rally. Tiger Town (if he runs) showed a new closing dimension last time that warrants attention.

Race 8 closes the card with Mamba On Three as the likely favorite and deserving top pick. He has been a consistent performer and should handle the drop in class.

For multi-race wagers, the $50,000 Guaranteed Pick 5 beginning in Race 2 offers value. Consider singling Livininthefastlane or Glorious Revenge in Race 2, using Another Charlie and Doadster in Race 3, Heat Merchant and Little Red Domi in Race 4, Paradise Perfect in Race 5, and Stratus and Sluggernaut in Race 6.

The late Pick 4 (Races 4-7) presents opportunities to spread in the competitive middle races while using key horses in the sprint races.

Overall, the synthetic Tapeta surface should reward horses with tactical speed and good positioning, while providing opportunities for closers when the pace is contentious. Cold weather racing may produce slightly slower times, but the surface will remain fair and consistent throughout the program.

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