Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Delta Downs, December 18, 2025. 33% WIN RATE + 1 BOXED TRIFECTA


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

Race 1: Maiden 5000K – 1M – Dirt

Win: Storm Surge (1) – 50%🥈
Place: Lundigrasmambo (5) – 40%
Show: Image Of Me (6) – 33%
Alternative: Acadiana (2) – 33%🥇

Race notes: Storm Surge shows speed credentials with consistent recent performances at the distance. Lundigrasmambo offers value as a consensus second choice. Image of Me has recent winning form suggesting readiness.


Race 2: Claiming 50000K – 7.0F – Dirt BOXED TRIFECTA

Win: Golden Mane (2) – 60%🥈
Place: Imma Deal (3) – 40%🥇
Show: Marks Legacy (6) – 40%🥉
Alternative: Misdeal (4) – 33%

Race notes: Golden Mane dominates expert consensus with multiple powerful picks. Imma Deal possesses excellent recent sprint credentials. Marks Legacy shows solid consistency. Misdeal offers an alternative angle with recent strong performances.


Race 3: Maiden 20000K – 5.0F – Dirt WIN

Win: He's Exaggerating (4) – 60%🥇
Place: Boston Chit Chat (8) – 33%
Show: Wildly Wicked (7) – 33%
Alternative: Money Drop (3) – 33%🥉

Race notes: He's Exaggerating appears the standout with multiple expert selections. Boston Chit Chat brings speed potential from favored barn connections. Wildly Wicked shows recent strong five-furlong form.


Race 4: Claiming 20000K – 5.0F – Dirt

Win: Aye Bay Bay (4) – 60%
Place: On The Horizon (5) – 33%🥈
Show: Unforgetableimelda (2) – 33%
Alternative: Doublebarrelvinny (3) – 33%🥇

Race notes: Aye Bay Bay stands as consensus choice across multiple sources. On The Horizon displays superior recent form metrics. Unforgetableimelda brings tactical speed. Doublebarrelvinny has recent win at distance.


Race 5: Allowance – 1M – Dirt

Win: El Perfecto (6) – 50%
Place: Celtic Pride (2) – 33%
Show: Gucci Boy (1) – 40%🥇
Alternative: Butler Cabin (3) – 40%🥈

Race notes: El Perfecto consensus leader with multiple expert picks. Celtic Pride offers value with recent strong middle-distance form. Gucci Boy possesses distance credentials and consistent record. Butler Cabin brings class dropping down in competition levels.


Race 6: Claiming 5000K – 5.0F – Dirt

Win: Girlie's Max (1) – 60%
Place: Flame Rock Fire (2) – 40%🥇
Show: Competitive Shock (6) – 33%🥉
Alternative: Ciel (5) – 33%🥈

Race notes: Girlie's Max dominates consensus with three-analyst picks and superior recent form. Flame Rock Fire shows solid tactical positioning and barn form. Competitive Shock provides speed alternative. Ciel brings closers approach.


Race 7: Claiming 15000K – 7.5F – Dirt WIN ($5.40)

Win: Aledean (7) – 60%🥇
Place: Everloving (3) – 50%🥉
Show: Forgotten Fortune (6) – 33%
Alternative: Show Me The Candy (4) – 33%🥈

Race notes: Aledean strongly favored with three expert picks and superior winning percentages. Everloving splits expert opinion but shows recent winning form at distance. Forgotten Fortune offers consistency alternative. Show Me The Candy possesses late-running credentials.


Race 8: Claiming 4000K – 1M – Dirt WIN ($6.80)

Win: San Juan Hill (7) – 60%🥇
Place: Ells (4) – 33%🥈
Show: Muffin Nuts (6) – 40%
Alternative: Cabro Toro (8) – 33%

Race notes: San Juan Hill maintains unanimous consensus across expert sources with superior recent form. Ells provides stalking positioning with tactical speed. Muffin Nuts shows consistent finishing form. Cabro Toro brings alternative speed angle.


Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1: Consider exacta 1-5 (Storm Surge-Lundigrasmambo) with overlay potential on exacta box 1-5-6. Trifecta 1-5-6 offers modest value given consensus around top contenders.

Race 2: Golden Mane exacta combinations hold strong confidence. Exacta 2-3 (Golden Mane-Imma Deal) recommended. Superfecta box 2-3-4-6 captures consensus opinions.

Race 3: He's Exaggerating-Boston Chit Chat exacta worth exploration given maiden condition unpredictability. Trifecta 4-8-7 uses consensus picks as foundation.

Race 4: Aye Bay Bay exacta plays to 5 or 2 provide confidence angles. Exacta 4-5 projects value. Superfecta 4-5-2-3 captures expert consensus breadth.

Race 5: Exacta 6-2 (El Perfecto-Celtic Pride) uses consensus picks. Trifecta 6-2-1 expands to include Gucci Boy placing emphasis. Superfecta 6-2-1-3 provides deeper coverage.

Race 6: Girlie's Max exacta base to Flame Rock Fire. Exacta 1-2 recommended with strong confidence. Superfecta 1-2-6-5 captures consensus angles.

Race 7: Aledean exacta combinations to Everloving or Forgotten Fortune. Exacta 7-3 provides strong foundation. Trifecta 7-3-6 solidifies top consensus picks.

Race 8: San Juan Hill exacta or trifecta combinations offer confidence. Exacta 7-4 or 7-6 worth consideration. Superfecta 7-4-6-8 incorporates expert consensus breadth.


Value Play Observations

Race 1: Lundigrasmambo offers value on place line despite consensus support. Storm Surge likely overlaid in win pools given strong multiple-expert consensus. Image of Me presents alternative play at longer odds with recent qualifying performance.

Race 2: Misdeal provides overlay potential in win and exacta pools despite recent form strength. Marks Legacy shows undervalued place credentials with consistent performances. Take The Hint offers supplementary ticket value for exotics.

Race 3: Boston Chit Chat commands attention as value play given barn reputation and minimal public awareness. Wildly Wicked presents maiden overlay angle. Money Drop provides supporting ticket value from experienced barn.

Race 4: On The Horizon appears overlaid given superior recent form metrics and strong analytics foundation. Doublebarrelvinny offers alternative speed play value at morning line prices. Hold The Drama provides ticket balancing at longer odds.

Race 5: Celtic Pride shows value as consensus alternative with underappreciated recent form. Butler Cabin presents class alternative at moderate odds. Confucius offers price value for deeper exotic integration.

Race 6: Competitive Shock projects undervalued angle despite consensus inclusion. Ciel presents value from alternative running style. Metronome offers supplementary exotic value at fair odds.

Race 7: Everloving provides split-consensus value play with expert support but potential chalk overlay. Show Me The Candy offers pace angle value. Best Performer presents supplementary alternative value.

Race 8: Ells commands value exploration despite consensus mention. Muffin Nuts offers consistent performer value. Cabro Toro presents supplementary speed alternative at fair odds.

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback