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Colonial Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the July 9, 2026 card

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Colonial Downs Race Day Overview — Thursday, July 9, 2026

The Colonial Downs summer meet rolls into its midpoint on Thursday with a full 8-race card offering a diverse menu of turf and dirt action. The card opens with a pair of maiden claimers on the grass before shifting to allowance and claiming company across both surfaces. The headline race of the afternoon is Race 7, a $90,000 allowance (n1x) going a mile and an eighth on the turf, offering the richest purse on the card and the deepest field of the day.

Several significant storylines surround today's program. Trainer Robbie Bailes, who conditions Kuhner (8) in Race 3 and Jewell's Indenial (14) in Race 3, is reportedly pointing runners toward the weekend stakes, but his Thursday entries offer live looks at a trainer currently in sharp form. Mike Trombetta, widely considered the dominant trainer of the Colonial Downs summer meet, saddles Aldene (2) and In Her Glory (5) in Race 8, pressing his stable's deep advantage on the New Kent turf. Jockey Malcolm Franklin, returning to Colonial Downs for the first time in three years, picks up a mount in Race 8 aboard Shameless Bride (9), and his presence adds an intriguing storyline to watch throughout the afternoon.

Patrick Moquin of Daily Racing Form has identified Race 2 as his best bet of the day on this card, singling out the $72,000 allowance on the main track as the play of the afternoon.

Weather and Track Conditions

Virginia in mid-July brings heat and the threat of afternoon thunderstorms. The forecast for New Kent County on July 9 calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 90s and humidity levels running high. Morning showers are possible, but the greater storm threat is in the late afternoon, which could affect the later races on the card. Track management at Colonial Downs has the ability to manage surface moisture on the world-class turf course, which was designed to drain efficiently, but a significant deluge late in the card could affect the going.

The turf course at Colonial Downs is expected to be rated good to firm this morning, with the possibility of softening to good if pre-race precipitation arrives. The main track is expected to be fast. Bettors should monitor scratch activity closely in the turf races as trainers may elect to pull horses if conditions deteriorate materially.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Colonial Downs features one of the premier turf courses in North America, a championship-caliber layout that favors horses with tactical speed and the ability to save ground. The turf course's wide lanes allow closers to make sweeping runs from off the pace, and the configuration of the stretch encourages late runs.

On the turf at Colonial Downs, inside post positions carry a slight disadvantage in large-field maiden events due to early traffic, but in allowance-quality fields, the inside can be a significant asset in terms of ground-saving. The seven-furlong chute on the turf (used for the 1210f races like Race 3, Race 6, and Race 8) allows horses to settle quickly and benefits horses that break cleanly and establish position without burning early energy.

For the mile-and-a-quarter route (1430f) in Race 2 on the dirt, the inside post is highly advantageous at Colonial Downs, where the long run to the first turn rewards horses that can clear to the rail early. The mile-and-a-half (1760f) turf races — Race 5 and Race 7 — are contested on a course that heavily rewards pace presense and stamina, and inside posts allow horses to settle comfortably in the early going.

On the main track, Colonial Downs has historically shown a slight speed bias, with horses pressing or leading from the front holding their form well, particularly at the route distances. Early leaders in the one-mile (1760f) dirt race in Race 4 should be respected.

RACE 1 — Post (12:35) — 1100f | Turf | Maiden | Md 16000 | Purse $32,000

This opener sends out eleven fillies and mares going six and a half furlongs on the turf in maiden claiming company at the $16,000 level. The race is restricted to females, and the short turf sprint format creates a pace scenario that will reward early speed backed by tactical positioning. Several of these horses are likely making their first or early career starts, and the field is wide open at face value.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

With eleven runners going 1100 feet on the turf, the early pace will be a critical factor. Cuddler (3), Forty Seven Smoker (7), and Gotta Be Da Shoes (9) all figure as potential early speed horses based on their connections and morning line positions. The pace is likely to be contested but not brutally fast, as this is maiden claiming company at a modest level. A horse that can settle in the first flight and time a run down the lane could hold a decisive advantage.

Key Contenders

Cuddler (3), trained by Karen Dennehy Godsey and ridden by Sonny Leon, draws one of the more favorable posts for a turf sprint at this distance. Godsey has been active at Colonial Downs this meet and Cuddler (3) is bet down to 4-1 on the morning line. Leon is one of the more capable riders on the grounds and brings a strong presence to maiden claiming events. The combination of a competent handler and a proven turf rider makes this a logical top choice.

Gotta Be Da Shoes (9), trained by Damon DiLodovico and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, is another morning-line co-favorite at 4-1. DiLodovico is a reliable condition-race trainer and his horses in maiden claiming events at Colonial Downs are typically prepared. The post is slightly wide, but at 1100 feet on the turf, the field compresses quickly and post position is less determinative than in route races.

Forty Seven Smoker (7), trained by Mark Shuman and ridden by Jorge Ruiz, rounds out the co-favorite trio at 4-1. Shuman has not been among the more prominent trainers at the meet, but Forty Seven Smoker (7) is clearly one of the better-regarded entrants based on the morning line positioning. Ruiz has been picking up mounts steadily throughout the meet.

Secondary Choices

Runtown (5), trained by Monica McGoey and ridden by Samuel Marin, offers an interesting profile at 6-1. McGoey is a trainer who spots horses carefully, and the 6-1 morning line suggests a horse that could outrun her odds in a race with no dominant favorite.

Tiz A Princess (2), trained by Jeremiah O'Dwyer and ridden by Johan Rosado, is listed at 6-1. O'Dwyer is one of the more competent trainers at the meet and has shown the ability to develop young fillies on the turf. Rosado is a solid partner in maiden events.

For Keeps (1), training under Brittany T. Russell and ridden by Sheldon Russell, brings the rail draw in a turf sprint, which can be advantageous if the horse breaks cleanly. The 5-1 morning line suggests connections have some confidence.

Longshots

That Thing You Do (6), trained by Gerard Ochoa with Mychel Sanchez in the irons at 20-1, is a significant price but Sanchez is one of the top riders at the meet and could find his way into a placing. Final Moment (11), from the barn of C. Beale Payne and ridden by Ismerio Villalobos, draws the outermost post at 15-1 and faces a difficult task overcoming the wide draw in a sprint. Deever Encounter (4) at 30-1 for Angel Rodriguez and Luis Fuenmayor, Rich Lady (8) at 30-1 for Moises Yanez and Ubardo Casique, and I'mamaterialgirl (10) at 30-1 for Jose Corrales and Denis Vicente Araujo are the extreme longshots in the field and appear to face long odds for good reason based on their tabbed prices.

Betting Strategy

This is a wide-open maiden claiming turf sprint with three co-favorites, none of which stands out distinctly. The race structure lends itself to horizontal plays rather than singles. A small win investment on Gotta Be Da Shoes (9) at 4-1 is defensible given the DiLodovico/Lopez combination, but the more prudent approach is to use all three co-favorites in exacta boxes and look for one of the 6-1 runners to hit the board. An exacta box using Cuddler (3), Forty Seven Smoker (7), Gotta Be Da Shoes (9), and Runtown (5) provides reasonable coverage.

Selections

Win: Gotta Be Da Shoes (9) Place: Cuddler (3) Show: Forty Seven Smoker (7)

RACE 2 — Post (1:05) — 1430f | Dirt | Allowance | Alw 72000n2l | Purse $72,000

This is the best bet of the day according to handicappers analyzing today's card. A field of six fillies and mares goes a mile and a quarter on the main track in allowance company for those that have not won two races lifetime. The purse of $72,000 attracts a competitive group, but the field is small enough that there should be a clear standout.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

Six horses, one mile and a quarter on the dirt. Our Two Girls (6), from the Kenneth McPeek barn and tabbed at 1-1 on the morning line, is likely the controlling speed or at minimum the presiding class of this field. At a mile and a quarter on the dirt, early pace is less volatile than in sprint races, and a horse with McPeek's backing who goes to the gate as the heavy morning-line favorite has almost certainly demonstrated the ability to handle both the distance and the surface. The key pace question is whether any other runner can keep pace with or pressure Our Two Girls (6) through the opening mile, setting up a potential stretch battle.

Key Contenders

Our Two Girls (6), trained by Kenneth McPeek and ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel, is the lone 1-1 morning-line favorite on the card and carries the weight of expectation in this spot. McPeek is one of the elite trainers in American racing, consistently developing fillies through the allowance conditions, and his Colonial Downs contingent is typically sharp. Esquivel is the regular partner for McPeek's best Colonial entrants this meet. A mile and a quarter on the dirt is a classic test for a developing filly, and Our Two Girls (6) is the clear top choice.

Raspberry (3), trained by D. Whitworth Beckman and ridden by Jareth Loveberry, is the 2-1 second choice on the morning line. Beckman is a well-respected mid-Atlantic trainer and Raspberry (3) figures to be live at a price that could offer value if Our Two Girls (6) is shorter than 1-1 at post time. Loveberry is one of the premier jockeys in the region and brings considerable experience to a one-turn mile-and-a-quarter.

Secondary Choices

Wickedwithbourbon (4), from the J. Keith Desormeaux barn with Sofia Vives in the saddle, is tabbed at 5-1. Desormeaux is a high-percentage trainer who deploys horses in spots where they can win, and Wickedwithbourbon (4) at 5-1 represents the most interesting price play in the race. Vives has been developing nicely as a rider and handles turf and dirt with equal ability.

Ms Sophistication (1), trained by Jorge Duarte Jr. and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, draws the rail post at 4-1. At a mile and a quarter on the dirt, the inside post is a significant asset, and Lopez is one of the busier and more effective riders at Colonial this meet. If Ms Sophistication (1) can be forwardly placed early, the rail draw turns into an advantage in the stretch run.

Longshots

Bolt Dior (2), trained by Tim Girten and ridden by Sheldon Russell, is listed at 8-1 and represents the fourth-deepest price in the field. Girten is a solid condition-race trainer, but the 8-1 morning line suggests Bolt Dior (2) is a clear step below the top contenders. Miss T Bobo (5), trained by Antonio Sano and ridden by Samuel Marin, goes at 15-1 and is the longest shot among the named runners. Sano is a trainer of some ability, but this price tells the story — Miss T Bobo (5) appears significantly outclassed by the top of this field.

Betting Strategy

This is the best bet of the card. Our Two Girls (6) with McPeek and Esquivel at 1-1 is a play to single in the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences. The win bet on Our Two Girls (6) is straightforward, though the likely short odds require larger handle to generate meaningful return. If Our Two Girls (6) firms to shorter than 4-5, consider backing Raspberry (3) at 2-1 as the value play with Loveberry's veteran presence. The exacta of Our Two Girls (6) over Raspberry (3) and Ms Sophistication (1) is the recommended exotic play.

Selections

Win: Our Two Girls (6) Place: Raspberry (3) Show: Ms Sophistication (1)

RACE 3 — Post (1:35) — 1210f | Turf | Maiden | Md 16000 | Purse $40,000

A full field of fourteen takes the turf at six and three-quarter furlongs in maiden claiming action. This is one of the more competitive maiden events of the afternoon, with a deep field that includes some interesting first-time starters and horses dropping into maiden claiming for the first time. Two morning-line co-favorites at 2-1 — Potcake (13) and Fortune Hill (5) — anchor an otherwise wide-open affair.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

Fourteen runners going 1210 feet on the turf creates a complex pace scenario. The field will spread across the course in the early stages, and the wide draw for Potcake (13) from post 13 will require a tactical effort to save ground. Fortune Hill (5) from the favorable post 5 should have an easier time getting a clean trip near the pace. The double-digit field size on the grass typically produces a moderate tempo with a sustained stretch run, rewarding horses with clean trips and a solid kick.

Key Contenders

Potcake (13), trained by Sarah Nagle and ridden by Jevian Toledo, is a co-morning-line favorite at 2-1. Toledo is one of the stronger jockeys in the mid-Atlantic and regularly appears at Colonial Downs. The wide post is a concern, but Toledo has the tactical intelligence to get Potcake (13) into a favorable position off the first turn. Nagle is a capable trainer in maiden company, and the pairing with Toledo suggests connections have strong expectations.

Fortune Hill (5), trained by Irvin G. Flores and ridden by Jose E. Vargas, shares the 3-1 morning line with strong public support. Post 5 in a 14-horse turf sprint is nearly ideal, providing position options without the exposure of a wide draw. Vargas is a solid jockey who has been active at Colonial this meet.

Kuhner (8), trained by Robbie Bailes and ridden by Denis Vicente Araujo, is listed at 4-1 and represents one of the more significant stable connections in the race. Bailes is in strong form according to reports out of New Kent this week, and the 4-1 morning line reflects genuine optimism about Kuhner (8)'s chances.

Secondary Choices

Jewell's Indenial (14), also from the Bailes barn and ridden by Forest Boyce, gives the trainer a two-pronged attack from the widest post in the race at 5-1. Having a second string entry from a trainer in good form is worth noting, and Jewell's Indenial (14) could represent the more live of the two if Kuhner (8) draws more betting attention.

Original Score (2), trained by Suzanne Stettinius and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, is listed at 5-1 from a favorable inside post. Stettinius is a careful trainer in maiden company and Original Score (2) should receive a ground-saving trip from post 2.

Sohandsometome (3), trained by Karen Dennehy Godsey and ridden by Sonny Leon, is tabbed at 6-1 and brings the same trainer-rider combination that is live in Race 1. Godsey appears to be in good form this meet and Sohandsometome (3) merits inclusion in exotics.

Toque (7), from the Sarah Nagle barn and ridden by Jorge Ruiz, is the stablemate of Potcake (13) at 6-1. Nagle running two gives the barn the flexibility to win from different positions in the field.

Longshots

Free Costs To Much (4), trained by Diana L. McClure and ridden by Christian Maldonado, is at 8-1 and represents a price alternative. Chucky Our Law (6), trained by Gerard Galligan and ridden by Sofia Vives, goes at 20-1. Flying To Work (1), trained by Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, is at 10-1 from the rail, where the turf inside post carries inherent risk in a crowded sprint. Divining Promise (9) at 30-1 for Brian Lusk and Jorge Panaijo, Beautiful Quality (10) at 30-1 for Susan Cooney and Mychel Sanchez, Dreamsdocometrue (11) at 30-1 for John Robb and Xavier Perez, and Kissintheladies (12) at 30-1 for Brian Lusk and Luis Fuenmayor are the deep prices unlikely to factor. Lusk does have two runners here in Divining Promise (9) and Kissintheladies (12), but both are tabbed at 30-1, suggesting neither is expected to be competitive at the top level.

Betting Strategy

With two co-favorites and several legitimate contenders, the exotic plays here are more compelling than a straight win bet. Using Potcake (13) and Fortune Hill (5) on top in exactas with Kuhner (8) and Jewell's Indenial (14) underneath covers both the Bailes barn angle and the public favorites. The trifecta key with Potcake (13) on top over Fortune Hill (5), Kuhner (8), and Original Score (2) is a reasonable structure.

Selections

Win: Potcake (13) Place: Fortune Hill (5) Show: Kuhner (8)

RACE 4 — Post (2:05) — 1760f | Dirt | Claiming | Clm 10000 | Purse $25,000

Nine runners go a mile on the main track in open claiming company at the $10,000 level. This is the lowest claiming price on the card, and the field is populated with horses that have been around the block. At this level and distance on the dirt, pace analysis and class movement are the primary keys.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

A nine-horse field going a mile on the dirt at the $10,000 claiming level will likely produce a moderate to honest pace. Be Better (3), the heavy morning-line favorite at 2-1, will set or press the pace from post 3. Bigtonten (2) at 4-1 and Cut The Cord (5) at 4-1 are both likely to press early, creating a potentially contested pace scenario. If the pace is genuinely honest, a stalker or closer from mid-field could benefit in the final furlong.

Key Contenders

Be Better (3), trained by A. Ferris Allen III and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, is the 2-1 morning-line favorite and the most heavily backed runner in this field. Allen has two entrants in this race — Be Better (3) and Aztec (1) — suggesting the barn is not hedging and likely has strong confidence in their entries. Lopez on Be Better (3) is the preferred ride based on the morning line differential between the two Allen horses. The rail-adjacent post 3 on a dirt mile is solid, and Lopez's positional awareness makes this a clean play.

Bigtonten (2), trained by Phillip Capuano and ridden by Mychel Sanchez, is listed at 4-1. Capuano also has White Series (6) in this race, giving him a two-horse entry. Sanchez is among the top riders at the meet, and Bigtonten (2) from post 2 should be well-positioned early. The Capuano two-punch with White Series (6) at 4-1 for Jeiron Barbosa gives the barn multiple ways to win.

Cut The Cord (5), trained by Lacey Gaudet and ridden by Sonny Leon, is tabbed at 4-1. Gaudet, like Capuano, has two runners in this race, with Forrest City (8) at 8-1 for Tais Lyapustina as the secondary entry. Leon has been a consistent force at Colonial Downs.

Secondary Choices

White Series (6), trained by Capuano and ridden by Barbosa, at 4-1 gives the Capuano barn its second shot in the race. If Bigtonten (2) sets a contested pace, White Series (6) could be the beneficiary as a closer from the same barn.

Forrest City (8), the secondary Gaudet runner ridden by Lyapustina at 8-1, is worth a look at the price. Lyapustina is a developing rider at Colonial who has been improving, and Forrest City (8) could find a trip from post 8 that bypasses early traffic.

Longshots

Aztec (1), trained by Allen and ridden by Jose E. Vargas, is the 6-1 stablemate to Be Better (3). The fact that the barn is starting both horses suggests neither is clearly superior in morning training, but the morning line strongly favors Be Better (3). Al Ameeq (4), trained by Brian Lusk and ridden by Luis Fuenmayor at 30-1, appears outclassed at this level. Noble Gentleman (7), from the Leanne Hester barn with Jareth Loveberry aboard at 20-1, could offer a small value play given Loveberry's overall ability but the price reflects underlying concerns. Speedy Alex (9), trained by Jose Corrales and ridden by Denis Vicente Araujo at 20-1, is wide and appears a significant price for good reason.

Betting Strategy

Be Better (3) is a legitimate single for horizontal exotic plays at this claiming level. The exacta of Be Better (3) over Bigtonten (2) and Cut The Cord (5) covers the most logical pace sequence. The Capuano and Gaudet dual entries create interesting trainer angles worth incorporating into trifecta plays.

Selections

Win: Be Better (3) Place: Cut The Cord (5) Show: Bigtonten (2)

RACE 5 — Post (2:35) — 1870f | Turf | Claiming | Clm 30000n2l | Purse $35,000

Eight horses go a mile and an eighth on the turf in claiming company restricted to horses that have not won two races. The $30,000 claiming price and $35,000 purse place this in the mid-tier of the afternoon's offerings. The turf mile-and-an-eighth (1870f) is a genuine distance test at Colonial, and horses with stamina and a clean early trip typically dominate.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

Christmas Jones (3), the 3-1 morning-line second choice, figures to be a prominent early runner from trainer Keri Brion's barn. Honor Azteca (5) from the Desormeaux barn at 5-1 could also press early. The eight-horse field on the turf at this distance should produce a manageable early pace, and horses that can track the leaders without being on the front end will be well-positioned for the long drive home.

Key Contenders

Christmas Jones (3), trained by Keri Brion and ridden by Samuel Marin, is the second choice at 3-1 and a logical top selection. Brion is a respected handler in the mid-Atlantic region with a strong turf record. The mile-and-an-eighth distance suits a horse with a sustained run, and Marin has been consistent on Colonial's turf course.

Pegster (1), trained by Danielle Hodsdon and ridden by H.A. Karamanos, is the 4-1 morning-line favorite and draws the rail in a turf mile-and-an-eighth — a potentially significant advantage. Karamanos is a sharp jockey who handles turf racing well. The inside post at this distance on Colonial's turf should allow Pegster (1) to settle in a ground-saving position.

Why (7), trained by Jane Cibelli and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, is co-tabbed at 4-1 and brings one of the stronger jockey assignments in the race. Lopez is riding with authority this meet and a trainer like Cibelli, who spots horses carefully in claiming conditions, should have Why (7) ready to fire.

Secondary Choices

Honor Azteca (5), trained by J. Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Sofia Vives, is listed at 5-1. Desormeaux's success rate in claiming conditions is high, and Honor Azteca (5) at 5-1 could offer some value if the Desormeaux connection has been preparing the horse for this specific spot.

Honor Our Country (6), trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Mychel Sanchez, is tabbed at 6-1. Ness is among the more active and successful trainers at Colonial Downs, and Honor Our Country (6) with Sanchez aboard represents a trainer-jockey combination that has been producing results throughout the meet.

Fresh Out (2), from the Kenneth McPeek barn and ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel, is listed at 6-1. A McPeek-Esquivel combination at 6-1 in a turf claiming race deserves serious consideration. McPeek has been dominant on Colonial's turf and Fresh Out (2) draws a favorable post 2.

Longshots

Nothinglesswilldo (4), trained by Mary Eppler and ridden by Jose E. Vargas at 10-1, is a price horse that could sneak a placing. Eppler is a competent trainer and Vargas gives the horse a capable partner. Courageous Diane (8), trained by Jose Juan Vazquez and ridden by Montalvo at 12-1, draws the widest post in a turf route and faces the toughest trip.

Betting Strategy

The McPeek angle with Fresh Out (2) at 6-1 is worth exploring as a value play against the shorter-priced favorites. The exacta of Pegster (1) and Christmas Jones (3) with each other and over Fresh Out (2) and Why (7) is the recommended structure. Pegster (1) with the rail draw in a turf route is a solid single consideration.

Selections

Win: Christmas Jones (3) Place: Pegster (1) Show: Why (7)

RACE 6 — Post (3:05) — 1210f | Turf | Claiming | Clm 16000n2l | Purse $34,500

Fourteen runners contest this maiden claiming turf sprint, restricted to horses that have not won two races. At 1210 feet (six and three-quarter furlongs) on the turf, this is the same configuration as Race 3 and Race 8, providing a familiar tempo structure. The morning line is led by Dale's Bluff (14) at 3-1, with Miss Mo Town (2) and Pretty Shy (6) and Let Her Pass By (7) sharing 4-1 prices.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

With fourteen horses and multiple speed sources including Miss Mo Town (2) from the Ness barn and Let Her Pass By (7) from the Sillaman barn, the early pace in this sprint should be reasonably hot. In a 14-horse turf sprint at this level, the pace often collapses in the final furlong, setting up a closer. Dale's Bluff (14) from the outermost post will need to overcome the wide draw, but Capuano-trained horses often demonstrate the tactical adaptability to handle wide post draws.

Key Contenders

Dale's Bluff (14), trained by Phillip Capuano and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, is the morning-line favorite at 3-1. Capuano is one of the more reliable trainers for this surface and distance combination at Colonial, as evidenced by his multiple entries throughout the card. Barbosa has been an effective partner for the Capuano barn, and despite the wide post 14, the experience of the trainer-jockey combination gives Dale's Bluff (14) a legitimate edge.

Miss Mo Town (2), trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, is listed at 4-1 and represents a strong trainer-jockey combo. Ness has been among the more active trainers at the meet, and Lopez continues to be one of the most sought-after riders on the grounds. Post 2 is excellent in a turf sprint and Miss Mo Town (2) should be forwardly placed.

In Timing (10), trained by Rohan G. Crichton and ridden by Sonny Leon, is a 5-1 shot from post 10. Leon has been effective on Colonial's turf and Crichton's horses often show sharp late form. The mid-field post is not ideal but Leon's turf awareness should help In Timing (10) find a clean trip.

Pretty Shy (6), trained by Gregory Sacco and ridden by Samuel Marin, is co-priced at 4-1. Sacco is a proven and respected trainer in the mid-Atlantic region and Pretty Shy (6) at 4-1 with Marin should be forwardly placed from post 6.

Secondary Choices

Let Her Pass By (7), trained by Richard Sillaman and ridden by Jose E. Vargas, is the fourth runner at 4-1 and brings another respectable trainer-jockey pairing. From post 7 in a 14-horse turf sprint, Let Her Pass By (7) should find a natural position in the early middle of the field.

Contra (3), trained by Sarah Nagle and ridden by H.A. Karamanos, is listed at 8-1. Nagle has been active at Colonial with multiple entrants throughout the card, and Contra (3) at 8-1 with Karamanos is worth including in exotics as a value play.

Shenadoah Sunrise (8), trained by Milan Milosevic and ridden by Jevian Toledo, goes at 12-1 and has one of the best jockeys in the field despite the double-digit price.

Longshots

Holy Joanie (4), trained by Roland Clement III and ridden by Ubardo Casique at 10-1, is a mid-price runner that could factor. Bellini Gold (13), from the Justin Nixon barn with Jean Gregor Briceno, goes at 12-1. Orquidea Real (11), trained by Angel Rodriguez and ridden by Luis Fuenmayor at 12-1, and Native Mischief (12) at 20-1 for David Bourke and Gavin Ashton round out the mid-to-long price range. Little Carley (1), trained by Steven Dye and ridden by Teshawn Hazelwood at 30-1, and Country Economics (5), trained by Jose Juan Vazquez and ridden by Jorge Panaijo at 30-1, and Maca Abarrio (9) at 30-1 for Gerard Ochoa and Jorge Ruiz are the deep longshots unlikely to figure.

Betting Strategy

Dale's Bluff (14) at 3-1 is a reasonable single in horizontal sequences despite the wide post. The Ness-Lopez pairing with Miss Mo Town (2) at 4-1 from post 2 is the value play — if Miss Mo Town (2) can control the pace from the inside, she could wire the field. The exacta of Miss Mo Town (2) over Dale's Bluff (14) and In Timing (10) is the recommended structure. This is a race to use two or three horses rather than single.

Selections

Win: Dale's Bluff (14) Place: Miss Mo Town (2) Show: In Timing (10)

RACE 7 — Post (3:36) — 1760f | Turf | Allowance | Alw 90000n1x | Purse $90,000

The feature event of the afternoon is a $90,000 allowance going a mile and an eighth on the turf for horses that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. Eight runners contest the deepest race of the card, and the purse of $90,000 is the richest of the day. This is the race that will draw the most serious wagering interest.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

Gramp's Legacy (1) from the Jeremiah O'Dwyer barn and Empire Of Glory (8) from the Arnaud Delacour stable figure as the most likely pace-setters based on their outside and inside posts respectively. The eight-horse field at a mile and an eighth should produce an honest pace, as the high-quality allowance horses in this group typically want to run on. Jolly By Golly (2) from the Ness barn at 4-1 could press or track in the early stages. The front-end pace questions are key to solving this race.

Key Contenders

Gramp's Legacy (1), trained by Jeremiah O'Dwyer and ridden by Johan Rosado, is the morning-line favorite at 3-1. O'Dwyer has been effective at this condition level throughout the meet, and Gramp's Legacy (1) from the inside post draws a significant advantage in a turf route. The 3-1 morning line reflects strong connections and a horse likely to be near the pace from the outset. Rosado has been sharp at Colonial this summer.

Jolly By Golly (2), trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Mychel Sanchez, is the 4-1 second choice. Ness has been one of the most active and successful trainers at Colonial Downs throughout this meet, and Jolly By Golly (2) from post 2 draws another favorable turf position. Sanchez is among the leaders in wins at the meet and brings significant tactical experience to this spot.

Empire Of Glory (8), trained by Arnaud Delacour and ridden by Jorge Ruiz, is listed at 4-1 from the widest post. Delacour is a class trainer who wins at a high rate in allowance company on the grass, and Empire Of Glory (8) despite the outer draw should be considered a serious contender. The Delacour barn's recent performance in high-purse turf races at Colonial warrants inclusion in all exotic plays.

Smart Uncle (5), trained by John R.S. Fisher and ridden by Forest Boyce, is another 4-1 runner from mid-field. Fisher is a solid mid-Atlantic trainer and Smart Uncle (5) from post 5 draws a comfortable middle position in an eight-horse field. Boyce has been an improving presence in the jockey standings.

Secondary Choices

Then What Time (3), trained by Jorge Duarte Jr. and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, is listed at 6-1. Duarte has been a dependable trainer at Colonial this meet and Lopez continues to be active in the top-end allowance races. Then What Time (3) at 6-1 offers some value as a secondary option.

Fear Of Union (4), trained by S. Jade Cunningham and ridden by Jareth Loveberry, is tabbed at 8-1. Loveberry is one of the best jockeys in the region, and Cunningham trains a horse that will likely be getting a ground-saving trip from mid-field. At 8-1, Fear Of Union (4) is the most interesting value play in the race.

Pendar (6), trained by Madison F. Meyers and ridden by Kevin Gomez, is listed at 8-1. Gomez is a veteran jockey who handles turf routes well, and Pendar (6) at 8-1 from post 6 could find a clean trip in the early going.

Longshots

West Mountain (7), trained by Caitlin Keil and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa at 20-1, is the longest price in the field. Even with Barbosa in the irons, the 20-1 morning line is a significant hurdle unless West Mountain (7) is a lightly raced horse with unexplored potential.

Betting Strategy

The feature race offers the best opportunity for meaningful exotic wagering. With four co-second choices at 4-1, this is not a race to single — the spreads in horizontal wagers are justified. The recommended play is an exacta box of Gramp's Legacy (1), Jolly By Golly (2), Empire Of Glory (8), and Fear Of Union (4) at 8-1 as the value kick. A trifecta using Gramp's Legacy (1) and Jolly By Golly (2) on top over the four 4-1 horses and Fear Of Union (4) provides solid coverage. Fear Of Union (4) at 8-1 with Loveberry is the best outright value bet in this race.

Selections

Win: Gramp's Legacy (1) Place: Jolly By Golly (2) Show: Empire Of Glory (8)

RACE 8 — Post (4:07) — 1210f | Turf | Allowance | Alw 72000n1x | Purse $72,000

The card closes with a full field of fourteen fillies and mares going six and three-quarter furlongs on the turf in allowance company for non-winners of one race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. The $72,000 purse and the trainer depth in this field make it one of the more intriguing races to analyze despite the challenging size of the field.

Race 8

Pace Analysis

With fourteen runners in a turf sprint, the early pace dynamics will be intense. Grade A (4), the morning-line 2-1 favorite from the O'Dwyer barn, will be the horse to beat and likely settles near the lead. Multiple speed sources could emerge in this field, including Baby Blocks (13) at 5-1 for Pascacio Lopez and Cuda Cutie (12) at 5-1 with Emmanuel Esquivel. A contested early pace benefits off-the-pace runners in a 14-horse turf sprint, particularly those from the inside who can save ground.

Key Contenders

Grade A (4), trained by Jeremiah O'Dwyer and ridden by Johan Rosado, is the 2-1 morning-line favorite. O'Dwyer winning the feature earlier with Gramp's Legacy (1) would be a confidence boost, and a double for the barn on the same afternoon is the ideal scenario. Rosado, established as one of the top O'Dwyer partners, should have Grade A (4) forwardly placed in this sprint. The 2-1 morning line is fairly short for a 14-horse field, but the quality of the connection justifies the price.

In Her Glory (5), trained by Mike Trombetta and ridden by Mychel Sanchez, is the 4-1 second choice. Trombetta has been widely identified as the dominant trainer at Colonial Downs in the current meet, with multiple stake favorites heading into the weekend. In Her Glory (5) at 4-1 with Sanchez, one of the meet's top jockeys, is a formidable combination. Trombetta also runs Aldene (2) from post 2 at 20-1, providing a stablemate option, though the morning line heavily suggests In Her Glory (5) is the main stable hope.

Cuda Cutie (12), trained by Aaron M. West and ridden by Emmanuel Esquivel, is the 5-1 co-third choice. From post 12, Cuda Cutie (12) will need to navigate traffic in a 14-horse field, but Esquivel is skilled at finding room on Colonial's wide turf course. West is a developing trainer showing improvement at this meet.

Baby Blocks (13), trained by Blake Kelly and ridden by Pascacio Lopez, is co-priced at 5-1 from post 13. Lopez is one of the most active jockeys at the meet and his success rate on the turf has been high. Kelly is a trainer worth tracking for positive results in allowance sprints.

Secondary Choices

Royally Blue (1), trained by Steve Klesaris and ridden by Rajiv Maragh, is at 8-1 from the rail. Maragh is a veteran jockey who excels at this distance on Colonial's turf, and the rail draw could be an asset if Royally Blue (1) breaks cleanly and establishes inside position. Klesaris has a track record in allowance company.

Shameless Bride (9), trained by Ethan W. West and ridden by Malcolm Franklin, is tabbed at 10-1. Franklin's return to Colonial Downs after three years away is the human interest story of the day, and Shameless Bride (9) at 10-1 could be an interesting play if Franklin has his timing back. West is a solid conditioner and the 10-1 price could offer value given the circumstances.

Tululo (6), trained by Jose A. Gallegos and ridden by Samuel Marin at 8-1, is another mid-price contender in a full field. Wassail (11), trained by Arnaud Delacour and ridden by Jareth Loveberry at 15-1, is the most interesting price play given Delacour's strong turf record and Loveberry's ability. The 15-1 morning line on a Delacour-Loveberry pairing deserves a second look.

Longshots

Bramble Blast (3), trained by Mike Dini and ridden by Sonny Leon at 12-1, brings a jockey with turf ability. Love Actually (7), from the Joseph Orseno barn with Diego A. Herrera at 15-1, is another mid-tier price in a deep field. Thirst For Hope (8), trained by Lynn Ashby and ridden by J.S. Rocco Jr. at 30-1, is the deepest price in the field. Soaring Angel (10), from the Brittany Russell barn with Sheldon Russell at 30-1, is a trainer-jockey family combination at a significant price. Sweeterthanwhiskey (14), from the Georgia Andreadakis barn with Jose E. Vargas at 15-1, is an interesting price for a turf sprint given Vargas's form at the meet. Aldene (2) at 20-1 for Trombetta, as noted, appears to be the secondary option for that barn.

Betting Strategy

The closing race with fourteen runners is a natural target for exotic plays. In Her Glory (5) at 4-1 represents the best value among the leading contenders given Trombetta's dominant meet record. The play is to use In Her Glory (5) and Grade A (4) in exactas both ways, adding Baby Blocks (13) and Royally Blue (1) for place and show coverage. The Wassail (11) Delacour-Loveberry angle at 15-1 is worth a small trifecta and exacta play as a price kicker. Structuring a trifecta key with In Her Glory (5) on top over Grade A (4), Baby Blocks (13), and Wassail (11) could return significant value.

Selections

Win: In Her Glory (5) Place: Grade A (4) Show: Baby Blocks (13)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Pascacio Lopez is the busiest and one of the most effective riders at Colonial Downs this meet. He has mounts in nearly every race on Thursday's card — Flying To Work (1) in Race 3, Be Better (3) in Race 4, Why (7) in Race 5, Miss Mo Town (2) in Race 6, Then What Time (3) in Race 7, and Baby Blocks (13) in Race 8, plus Ms Sophistication (1) in Race 2 and Gotta Be Da Shoes (9) in Race 1. Lopez has established himself as the go-to jockey for multiple top trainers this meet, including Jorge Duarte Jr. and others, and his presence on any horse adds meaningful value to the connection.

Mychel Sanchez is among the leading jockeys in win percentage and total wins at Colonial Downs. His rides aboard Bigtonten (2) in Race 4, Honor Our Country (6) in Race 5, Jolly By Golly (2) in Race 7, and In Her Glory (5) in Race 8 represent the breadth of his book and the quality of trainers who trust him. Sanchez's ability on Colonial's turf course specifically has been one of the more valuable angles of the meet.

Jareth Loveberry is a top regional rider who brings significant experience to his mounts. His assignments include Raspberry (3) in Race 2, Noble Gentleman (7) in Race 4, and Fear Of Union (4) in Race 7 and Wassail (11) in Race 8. The fact that Loveberry draws the feature race mount on Fear Of Union (4) at 8-1 makes that horse particularly interesting at the price.

Jevian Toledo draws two significant mounts — Potcake (13) in Race 3 and Shenadoah Sunrise (8) in Race 6. Toledo is one of the more accomplished jockeys to appear at Colonial this summer, and his presence on Potcake (13) as a co-favorite in Race 3 is notable.

Johan Rosado rides for the Jeremiah O'Dwyer barn throughout the card, including aboard Gramp's Legacy (1) in Race 7 and Grade A (4) in Race 8. Rosado-O'Dwyer has developed into one of the most potent trainer-jockey combinations at the current meet, and a double from those two horses in the last two races of the afternoon would be a significant result.

Malcolm Franklin, back in the saddle after three years away from Colonial Downs according to reports from The Racing Biz this week, picks up the mount on Shameless Bride (9) in Race 8. Franklin's return is worth watching, and if his timing is sharp, Shameless Bride (9) at 10-1 could offer some value given the circumstances of his return.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Mike Trombetta, the dominant trainer at Colonial Downs this summer meet, has multiple entrants on Thursday's card headlined by In Her Glory (5) and Aldene (2) in Race 8. Reports out of New Kent indicate Trombetta is pointing horses toward the weekend stakes events, but his Thursday runners are being spotted carefully in spots they can win. The Trombetta record at Colonial Downs on the turf is among the best of any conditioner at the meet, and In Her Glory (5) at 4-1 in Race 8 is a genuine best bet alternative to the morning-line favorite.

Robbie Bailes enters Kuhner (8) and Jewell's Indenial (14) in Race 3 with reported optimism about the stable's condition this week. The dual entry from a trainer reportedly in strong form is a significant angle in the Race 3 maiden claiming turf sprint.

Kenneth McPeek trains Our Two Girls (6) in Race 2 and Fresh Out (2) in Race 5. McPeek's dominance on Colonial's turf is well-documented, and his dirt entrant Our Two Girls (6) as the 1-1 morning-line best bet of the day demands respect. The pairing of McPeek with Emmanuel Esquivel in Race 2 is one of the most potent trainer-jockey combinations on the card.

Jeremiah O'Dwyer handles Tiz A Princess (2) in Race 1, Gramp's Legacy (1) in Race 7, and Grade A (4) in Race 8. The potential for a trainer double or triple across the card's major races makes O'Dwyer one of the most important figures to watch on Thursday. His partnership with Rosado has been particularly effective.

Jamie Ness trains Jolly By Golly (2) in Race 7, Honor Our Country (6) in Race 5, and Miss Mo Town (2) in Race 6 among others. Ness has been one of the more active and successful trainers at the meet, and his horses across the card deserve careful consideration. The Ness-Sanchez and Ness-Lopez partnerships have been among the more reliable combinations at Colonial Downs this summer.

Lacey Gaudet trains Cut The Cord (5) and Forrest City (8) in Race 4, entering two horses in the same claiming race. This double entry at the $10,000 claiming level suggests Gaudet is confident in the general ability of the barn's horses in this company, if not entirely certain which will fire on this particular day.

Arnaud Delacour trains Empire Of Glory (8) in Race 7 and Wassail (11) in Race 8. The Delacour stable has a strong record in turf allowance conditions at Colonial Downs, and these two horses represent legitimate value plays at their respective morning-line prices.

Sarah Nagle trains Toque (7) and Potcake (13) in Race 3 as well as Contra (3) in Race 6. The dual entry in Race 3 with Potcake (13) as a co-favorite is the primary angle, but Contra (3) at 8-1 in Race 6 is worth including in exotics given the trainer's overall activity level.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The clear best bet of the card is Our Two Girls (6) in Race 2. McPeek-Esquivel at 1-1 in a six-horse field on the main track is the rare race where a heavy favorite is justified by the quality of the connection and the relatively thin competition. Single this horse in all horizontal wagers and make a confident win bet.

The Race 8 closer presents the best opportunity for a meaningful exacta return. In Her Glory (5) at 4-1 from the Trombetta barn over Grade A (4) at 2-1 pays a solid exacta price. If you want to be contrarian in the final, Wassail (11) at 15-1 from the Delacour barn with Loveberry could anchor a profitable trifecta if used underneath the two favorites.

The Pick 4 from Race 5 through Race 8 is the most attractive horizontal sequence on the card. A base ticket might read: Christmas Jones (3) and Pegster (1) in Race 5 / Dale's Bluff (14) and Miss Mo Town (2) in Race 6 / Gramp's Legacy (1) and Jolly By Golly (2) in Race 7 / In Her Glory (5) and Grade A (4) in Race 8. The two-by-two-by-two-by-two structure gives 16 combinations covering the favorites and the most logical alternate in each race.

For value-seekers, Fear Of Union (4) at 8-1 in Race 7 with Loveberry is the best outright price play on the card. In a race with four 4-1 co-second choices, a Loveberry mount at 8-1 from the Cunningham barn stands out as an underlay waiting to happen.

The Trombetta angle throughout the card is the most important recurring theme. When one of the meet's dominant trainers enters In Her Glory (5) in the closing allowance race with his barn's top jockey, the 4-1 morning line represents the best return available on a horse that should be considerably shorter at post time.

The Malcolm Franklin return story aboard Shameless Bride (9) in Race 8 at 10-1 is worth a small exacta play underneath the two favorites. If Franklin's return is as sharp as his previous form at Colonial suggested, the 10-1 price could be generous in a competitive turf sprint.

For the Race 3 Pick 3 through Race 5, the structure of Potcake (13) and Fortune Hill (5) in Race 3 / Be Better (3) in Race 4 as a single / Christmas Jones (3) and Pegster (1) in Race 5 gives a solid two-one-two ticket that covers the most defensible plays in three consecutive races and builds toward the back end of the card.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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