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Colonial Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 5, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Race Day Overview

This is the penultimate card of the Colonial Downs summer meet, with a 10-race program headlined by a pair of 100,000-dollar Virginia-restricted turf handicaps: the Bert Allen Handicap for older horses (Race 8) and the Nellie Mae Cox Handicap for fillies and mares (Race 9), both at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. First post is 12:30 p.m. Eastern, and the card fits into the broader Labor Day weekend culminating in Old Dominion Derby Day on Monday, September 7.

Race 8 features Nick's Notion (8), a mare who was narrowly beaten in the All Brandy Stakes and now returns in the Nellie Mae Cox, drawing the outside post in a field of eight older fillies and mares. Race 9 centers on Two's A Crowd (9), who has won five of seven starts in 2026 and is widely viewed as the horse to beat among Virginia-bred, -sired, or -certified older runners. Gramp's Legacy (6), also in Race 9, comes into the weekend off three wins in his last four starts, including back-to-back allowance scores that have put him on the radar for the upcoming Old Dominion Derby.

Recent racing at Colonial Downs in the days leading up to this card has been contested on fast dirt and firm turf, including firm turf in the Marion Dupont Scott Handicap on September 3 and fast dirt in a maiden special weight that same afternoon, as well as firm turf noted in claiming events on September 4. That pattern supports the expectation that both surfaces are in good shape heading into Saturday's program.

Weather and Track Conditions

Regional forecasts for the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, September 5 call for hot, humid conditions with the potential for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms capable of damaging winds. Recent heat advisories issued for New Kent County and surrounding areas on Friday cited heat index values from 105 to 109 degrees, reflecting a very warm and muggy air mass over the region.

Given the recent fast dirt and firm turf readings on the September 3 and September 4 cards, and the lack of any indication of prolonged soaking rains, both the main track and the turf course should be on the quicker side early in the day, with only an isolated storm later in the afternoon potentially softening the turf slightly in the closing races if a cell passes directly over the track.

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Colonial Downs is a wide, sweeping oval with a long turf stretch and generous turns, which historically tends to produce fair racing on both surfaces, with a slight lean toward tactical speed rather than extreme front runners or deep closers. The turf course's configuration, combined with firm readings in recent races, typically rewards horses who can secure position in the first flight, relax, and produce a sustained run from the far turn.

In turf sprints, inside to mid posts have a mild edge because they allow saving ground into the turn without conceding early position, while in longer turf routes like the Bert Allen and Nellie Mae Cox, outside posts can be overcome by patient riders who avoid losing too much ground early and time their run to the long stretch. On the dirt, the fast surface seen on recent cards has tended to play honest, with early speed and pace-pressers enjoying an advantage when they are not engaged in destructive duels.

With the expected heat and only spotty thunderstorm risk, a reasonable working assumption for handicapping is that early speed will be dangerous on the dirt and tactical stalkers will be well-positioned on the turf, while extreme closers will need race shape and pace meltdowns to make a significant impact.

RACE 1 — Post (12:30)/11:30/10:30/9:30 — 1870f | t | M | Md 16000 | BUM | Purse 40,000

Pace Analysis

Race 1 is a two-turn turf maiden claiming route for fillies and mares, and the field features several runners who have shown or suggest tactical speed rather than true front-running speed. Cool Hard Breeze (2) is likely to be forwardly placed off her inside draw and short price, with Yeah Glo (5) and Bree Cola (6) capable of attending in the first flight. Hot Cocoa (7) and Shiv (8) have profiles that suggest stalking or mid-pack trips, with Working On It (11) also capable of sitting just behind the leaders.

With no clear need-the-lead type, the pace should be moderate, placing a premium on horses who can secure good position into the first turn and finish strongly off a controlled tempo. Inside and mid posts are beneficial at this trip, so the draw works in favor of Cool Hard Breeze (2) and Yeah Glo (5).

Key Contenders

Cool Hard Breeze (2) is the morning-line favorite at 2-1 and is a logical key contender given the class drop into 16,000 maiden claiming company and the turf route configuration that suits a professional, tactical filly. Susan Cooney typically spots her horses in realistic spots over the Colonial turf, and Jorge Ruiz has ridden the course very effectively during the meet. Cool Hard Breeze (2) should secure a ground-saving trip from the inside and has both the tactical speed and stamina to be in the right place turning for home.

Yeah Glo (5) at 4-1 looks like the main alternative. Karen Dennehy Godsey's barn has had live runners at the meet, and the switch to Luis Fuenmayor can signal more intent from a pace perspective. Yeah Glo (5) is drawn well to track Cool Hard Breeze (2), and if she has any improvement in her second or third turf route attempt, she can make a serious run at the favorite.

Bree Cola (6) with Jevian Toledo at 8-1 is another key contender. Toledo is a strong turf rider who excels at putting horses in good stalking positions. Bree Cola (6) projects to sit just off Cool Hard Breeze (2) and Yeah Glo (5), and if the leaders get too cozy on the front end, Bree Cola (6) can be the one to apply pressure and capitalize late.

Secondary Choices

Blue Ice (10) at 6-1 is a viable secondary choice. The outside draw is not ideal, but Samuel Marin is capable of dropping over into mid-pack and saving some ground on the first turn. Blue Ice (10) may be better suited to making one sustained run, and in a race where the pace is more likely to be controlled than hot, she needs the leaders to show some vulnerability late.

Shiv (8) at 10-1 is another who can take advantage if the race tilts toward stalkers. Jareth Loveberry is very adept at timing late runs on turf, and Shiv (8) can settle mid-pack and try to circle the field if the pace is more contested than it appears on paper.

Hot Cocoa (7) at 15-1 fits underneath as a secondary player. Edwin Gonzalez is an aggressive rider who might elect to send Hot Cocoa (7) early to avoid being hung wide, and if that tactical move works, she can hold on for a slice of the exotics.

Longshots

Threshing (1) at 20-1 has the rail and may be ridden more aggressively than her past performances suggest, but she needs substantial improvement to contend with the top tier.

Jubaleve (3) at 15-1 and Classy Look (4) at 30-1 both project as deep exotics possibilities more than win threats. Either could clunk up for a minor award if the pace collapses or if they show unexpected affinity for the Colonial turf.

Role's Mischief (9) at 30-1 and Working On It (11) at 10-1 round out the field. Role's Mischief (9) looks overmatched on paper and would need a huge step forward. Working On It (11) has enough ability to be a wide-trip candidate; if Vargas can tuck in behind the first flight, she could surprise at a price, but she still appears one notch below the top trio.

The betting strategy here leans toward using Cool Hard Breeze (2) as the anchor: win bet, with exacta and trifecta combinations keying Cool Hard Breeze (2) over Yeah Glo (5), Bree Cola (6), Blue Ice (10), and Shiv (8). For value, consider a saver exacta with Bree Cola (6) on top in case Toledo works the perfect stalking trip.

Selections

Win: Cool Hard Breeze (2) Place: Yeah Glo (5) Show: Bree Cola (6)

RACE 2 — Post (1:06)/12:06/11:06/10:06 — 1760f | t | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse 87,500

Pace Analysis

Race 2 is a state-bred maiden special weight on turf, a key early race in the program with two short-priced fillies: Panama Canal (5) and Kimmy Got Glasses (4). Panama Canal (5), from the Graham Motion barn, projects as a mid-pack stalker rather than a committed front runner, while Kimmy Got Glasses (4) has shown enough tactical speed to be part of the first flight.

Louvar (3), Twenty Four Cara (6), and Verdant Tones (1) can also show pace, but the race shape looks more like an honest, evenly run route than a blistering early duel. Tactical position and turn-of-foot will decide it.

Key Contenders

Panama Canal (5) at an even-money morning line is clearly the key contender. Graham Motion is highly proficient with turf routers, and this filly is placed aggressively in a state-bred maiden special weight where her pedigree and connections suggest she is sitting on a breakthrough performance. With Jorge Ruiz up, Panama Canal (5) should settle in the second flight, save ground, and produce a strong run when set down in the lane.

Kimmy Got Glasses (4) at 2-1 is the main rival. James Lawrence has shown he can develop turf fillies in this circuit, and Jose Vargas is likely to put Kimmy Got Glasses (4) into the race early. She has the speed to attend the pace and the stamina to see out the mile-plus trip, making her a dangerous pace-controlling presence if left alone too long.

Louvar (3) at 8-1 is a live alternative with Jareth Loveberry. This filly can track just off Kimmy Got Glasses (4) and might benefit if Panama Canal (5) encounters any traffic or fails to fully relax. Louvar (3) could be the type who improves second or third time on turf and offers more value than the top two.

Secondary Choices

Twenty Four Cara (6) at 12-1 and Toot (11) at 12-1 are both second-tier contenders. Twenty Four Cara (6) has a solid turf pedigree and could appreciate the longer trip; if Larrosa can secure a covered-up trip and angle out in the lane, Twenty Four Cara (6) has exotics appeal. Toot (11), from the Karen Dennehy Godsey barn, gets Sonny Leon and a wide draw, which suggests a drop-in mid-pack ride. Toot (11) may be best used underneath in trifectas.

Verdant Tones (1) at 20-1 has an inside draw that could help her overachieve. Jevian Toledo may send Verdant Tones (1) to the rail and attempt to steal a share by saving every inch of ground.

Daringly (8) at 20-1, Beautiful Justify (2) at 30-1, For Keeps (9) at 30-1, and Lookinforjoybaloo (10) at 30-1 all look more like longshot exotics fillers. In a race dominated by two strong favorites, these runners would need considerable improvement or chaos to upset, but one of them could bob up for fourth in deeper trifectas and superfectas.

Longshots

Caramella Gee (7) at 30-1 appears overmatched and will need a dramatic leap forward in performance to factor strongly. Beautiful Justify (2), For Keeps (9), and Lookinforjoybaloo (10) similarly appear behind the main group on paper.

Given the heavy chalk presence, bettors should focus on structuring wagers around Panama Canal (5) and Kimmy Got Glasses (4). Win bets on Panama Canal (5) offer limited value, so the better approach is exactas and trifectas: key Panama Canal (5) over Kimmy Got Glasses (4), Louvar (3), Twenty Four Cara (6), and Toot (11). A slight hedge using Kimmy Got Glasses (4) over Panama Canal (5) and Louvar (3) is prudent, as Kimmy Got Glasses (4) could seize control and never look back.

Selections

Win: Panama Canal (5) Place: Kimmy Got Glasses (4) Show: Louvar (3)

RACE 3 — Post (1:38)/12:38/11:38/10:38 — 1760f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AON | Purse 70,000

Pace Analysis

Race 3 switches to the dirt for a state-bred maiden special weight at 1 1/16 miles. The pace complexion is more contentious here, with several runners who could vie for the lead: Goalpost (1), Imperial Charter (3), Seismic Surge (4), In The Hunt (5), and Molitor (7) all project as capable of sitting on or near the front.

With multiple pace factors drawn across the field, the early fractions could be sharper than par for this level, introducing the possibility that a tracking type like Indigo Mo (8) or Jokes Reserve (2) can capitalize late. The race may come down to who handles the dirt and distance best under pressure.

Key Contenders

Imperial Charter (3) at 4-1 is a key contender with pace and class appeal. Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon is an aggressive conditioner who does well with horses making incremental improvements, and Mychel Sanchez is likely to have Imperial Charter (3) involved early, either on the lead or pressing outside. If Imperial Charter (3) settles and relaxes, he can be very tough to reel in.

Molitor (7) at 4-1 is another major player. Michael Stidham's trainees often improve with experience, and Molitor (7) gets Jevian Toledo, who can secure a comfortable stalking trip. Molitor (7) may benefit if the inside speed types engage each other; he can sit just off them and strike at the three-sixteenths pole.

Indigo Mo (8) at 4-1 is a strong contender as well. Michael Campbell's runner with Samuel Marin projects as a mid-pack type, well suited to a race where the leaders might tire each other out. Indigo Mo (8) could be the one finishing best if the pace scenario plays out as expected.

Secondary Choices

Goalpost (1) at 6-1, from the Graham Motion barn with Jorge Ruiz, is a legitimate secondary choice. The rail draw forces Ruiz to make an early decision: send or take back. A ground-saving, stalking trip could be ideal, and Goalpost (1) has enough talent to wire the field if no one else insists on the lead.

In The Hunt (5) at 5-1 is another viable contender. With Emmanuel Esquivel aboard, In The Hunt (5) might be used aggressively, but if he can settle just off the leaders, his chances improve considerably.

Jokes Reserve (2) at 8-1 adds intrigue. Caio Caramori's horses often outrun their odds, and Bocachica is a capable pace-pressing rider. Jokes Reserve (2) could be prominent early and still have something left.

Longshots

Seismic Surge (4) at 15-1, Army Run (6) at 12-1, Royal Authentic (9) at 30-1, and Teotihuacan (10) at 12-1 make up the longshot cadre. Seismic Surge (4) is a possible pace nuisance who could either hang on for a minor check or fade badly. Army Run (6) and Teotihuacan (10) might pick up pieces if the pace melts, while Royal Authentic (9) appears significantly overmatched and would need a monumental turnaround.

From a wagering standpoint, this is a good race to spread around the main trio: exactas and trifectas using Imperial Charter (3), Molitor (7), Indigo Mo (8), and Goalpost (1) in various combinations. Players with stronger opinions on pace could lean on Indigo Mo (8) as a value win play if his price floats above the morning line.

Selections

Win: Indigo Mo (8) Place: Molitor (7) Show: Imperial Charter (3)

RACE 4 — Post (2:08)/1:08/12:08/11:08 — 1320f | D | A | Alw 72000n1x | BUM | Purse 72,000

Pace Analysis

Race 4 is a six-furlong allowance for fillies and mares, and it features several proven sprinters with strong early speed. Mila Candy (1), Militia (2), Gin's Beach Road (5), Spectacular Joke (8), and Yellow Feathers (4) all have the ability to contest the pace.

Given Jamie Ness's tendencies, Mila Candy (1) may be sent hard from the inside, with Militia (2) and Spectacular Joke (8) applying outside pressure. This sets up a fast early clip and a test of which filly can sustain her speed through the lane.

Key Contenders

Mila Candy (1) at 2-1 is a major contender. Jamie Ness excels in these allowance-level sprint spots, and Mila Candy (1) has the tactical speed and class to either set or press the pace from the rail. Mychel Sanchez rides aggressively and should have Mila Candy (1) on the front foot from the opening strides.

Militia (2) at 3-1 for Steve Klesaris with Jorge Ruiz is the primary rival. Militia (2) can stalk just off Mila Candy (1) or, if circumstances dictate, press outside. Her ability to finish strongly at six furlongs keeps her firmly in the win mix.

Gin's Beach Road (5) at 4-1, from the Mark Casse barn with Sonny Leon, is another key threat. Gin's Beach Road (5) may be best as a tracking type, sitting behind the top pair and moving into the three-path turning for home. If the front duo engage in a duel, Gin's Beach Road (5) can capitalize.

Secondary Choices

Spectacular Joke (8) at 6-1 has speed and might challenge Mila Candy (1) and Militia (2) early. If Spectacular Joke (8) gets out cleanly and settles, he can be in the frame late, but he may be at risk of being part of a damaging duel.

Celtic Harp (3) at 8-1 and Yellow Feathers (4) at 10-1 are more likely secondary players. Celtic Harp (3) can drop in behind the main speed and look to pick up pieces late. Yellow Feathers (4) has enough pace to be involved, but her best use is underneath in exotics.

Flight Moon (6) at 15-1 and Pola Of Trouble (7) at 20-1 appear a cut below; both would need considerable improvement or a total collapse up front to hit the board.

Longshots

Pola Of Trouble (7) and Flight Moon (6) are longshots who may only factor if the race collapses completely. Both can be incorporated as deep trifecta or superfecta fillers for bettors seeking large payoffs.

The wagering angle here centers on deciding which of the top three you want to lean on. Exactas keying Mila Candy (1) over Militia (2) and Gin's Beach Road (5) are logical, with a backup exacta Militia (2) over Mila Candy (1) and Gin's Beach Road (5). Trifecta players might consider 1-2-5 over 1-2-3-4-8 as a structured approach.

Selections

Win: Mila Candy (1) Place: Militia (2) Show: Gin's Beach Road (5)

RACE 5 — Post (2:37)/1:37/12:37/11:37 — 1210f | T | C | Clm 25000 | BUN | Purse 40,000

Pace Analysis

Race 5 is a turf sprint claiming event, where pace and post position play a critical role. Jungle Glow (2), Then What Time (3), Noah Chance (7), Incinerator (9), and Paynted Warrior (10) all have the potential to show speed.

In turf sprints at Colonial, inside and mid posts can be advantageous, particularly for speed types, so Jungle Glow (2) and Then What Time (3) figure prominently early. Paynted Warrior (10) and Incinerator (9) may need to work harder from outside to avoid losing ground.

Key Contenders

Jungle Glow (2) at 4-1 looks like a key contender. Kevin Joy's runner appears to have solid tactical speed and an excellent draw. With Martin Chuan aboard, Jungle Glow (2) can secure a forward, ground-saving position and finish strongly.

Paynted Warrior (10) at 2-1 is the morning-line favorite and another major player. Jose Antonio Vargas's horse with Mychel Sanchez has standout class and speed figures for this level and should be pressing the pace from the outside. If Paynted Warrior (10) breaks sharply and clears or sits second, he will be formidable.

Noah Chance (7) at 5-1 for John Robb with Xavier Perez offers a strong stalking presence. Noah Chance (7) can sit just off the top pair and is likely to be in the thick of things in deep stretch.

Secondary Choices

Then What Time (3) at 8-1 and Catamount (8) at 8-1 both rank as secondary choices. Then What Time (3) can be part of the pace from a good draw and may hang on longer than expected. Catamount (8), with Sonny Leon, might get a sneaky trip just behind the pace and deliver a late run.

Warheart (1) at 15-1 and Incinerator (9) at 6-1 are also usable in exotics. Warheart (1) can save ground and potentially find a seam late. Incinerator (9) has enough speed to be close up early and can fight on for a minor placing.

Longshots

Makeit To Cheyenne (4) at 12-1, Mi Dinero (5) at 20-1, Kohoutek (6) at 20-1, and Paynted Warrior (10) as the favorite round out the field. Mi Dinero (5) and Kohoutek (6) appear a bit overmatched but could pick up late-running pieces if the race collapses. Makeit To Cheyenne (4) needs a perfect trip and a step forward but can serve as a deep trifecta satellite.

The betting approach in this race is to lean on both Jungle Glow (2) and Paynted Warrior (10). Consider win bets on Jungle Glow (2) if the price holds near or above 4-1, and use Jungle Glow (2) and Paynted Warrior (10) heavily in exactas and trifectas over Noah Chance (7), Then What Time (3), Catamount (8), and Incinerator (9).

Selections

Win: Paynted Warrior (10) Place: Jungle Glow (2) Show: Noah Chance (7)

RACE 6 — Post (3:06)/2:06/1:06/12:06 — 1210f | t | R | Alw 50000s | BUN | Purse 55,000

Pace Analysis

Race 6 is a restricted allowance turf sprint, a key middle-race where the pace figures to be sharp. Aye Eye (1), Parkes (2), Matthew's Ticket (3), Burning Bridges (4), Alexis Zorba (5), and Jamalamadingdong (7) all have forward tendencies.

Burning Bridges (4), from the Jamie Ness barn, is likely to show the most aggressive speed, with Matthew's Ticket (3) and Alexis Zorba (5) tracking just behind. The pace should be solid, setting up either a wire attempt by Burning Bridges (4) or a stalking win by one of the others.

Key Contenders

Burning Bridges (4) at 2-1 is the key contender and probable pace leader. Jamie Ness's turf sprinters often do their best work on the lead, and Burning Bridges (4) is well-drawn to go forward from the middle gate. Martin Chuan should look to seize the initiative early and control things.

Matthew's Ticket (3) at 4-1 is a major threat. Phillip Capuano is a sharp conditioner, and Forest Boyce is an experienced turf rider. Matthew's Ticket (3) can sit second or third, just off Burning Bridges (4), and pounce if the leader falters.

Alexis Zorba (5) at 5-1 with Jareth Loveberry is another live contender. Alexis Zorba (5) fits the stalk-and-pounce profile, and Loveberry's tactical nous can make the difference if the early fractions are punishing.

Secondary Choices

Aye Eye (1) at 6-1, Parkes (2) at 5-1, and Jamalamadingdong (7) at 8-1 qualify as secondary options. Aye Eye (1) can save ground and may be able to slip through inside if the pace becomes contested. Parkes (2) from the Stettinius barn with Jamie Rodriguez might be used aggressively to ensure position, potentially complicating Burning Bridges (4)'s trip.

Jamalamadingdong (7), with Sonny Leon, has the sort of mid-pack profile that can be dangerous if the leaders overdo it. At 8-1, Jamalamadingdong (7) is a logical inclusion in deeper exotics.

Capovivo (8) at 15-1 and Dancing Bear (6) at 12-1 are more likely longshots but not devoid of hope. Dancing Bear (6) has Jose Vargas aboard and can be ridden to maximize his late kick, though he will need the right setup.

Longshots

Capovivo (8) is the clearest longshot in the field, likely needing everything to go right to contend strongly. Dancing Bear (6) is a fringe player who may hit the bottom of trifectas if the pace collapses.

From a wagering perspective, this is a race where many bettors will choose to lean heavily on Burning Bridges (4) in verticals and multi-race sequences. A win bet on Burning Bridges (4) is sensible if the price holds near the morning line, and exactas keying Burning Bridges (4) over Matthew's Ticket (3) and Alexis Zorba (5) are recommended. For protection, include reverse exactas with Matthew's Ticket (3) and Alexis Zorba (5) over Burning Bridges (4).

Selections

Win: Burning Bridges (4) Place: Matthew's Ticket (3) Show: Alexis Zorba (5)

RACE 7 — Post (3:37)/2:37/1:37/12:37 — 1210f | T | C | Clm 10000 | BUN | Purse 25,000

Pace Analysis

Race 7 is a turf sprint at the 10,000 claiming level, a spot where a few hardened veterans will line up. Bouncer (1), Boat's A Rockin (4), The Bullion Bomber (3), Noble Jon (8), and Biz Biz Buzz (9) have pace profiles that suggest they can be prominent early.

Bouncer (1), from the Jamie Ness stable, is likely to show speed from the rail, while Noble Jon (8) as the 2-1 favorite will probably stalk in handy fashion. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, leaning toward a race shape that rewards tactical speed.

Key Contenders

Noble Jon (8) at 2-1 is the key contender. With Horacio Karamanos aboard and Monica McGoey training, Noble Jon (8) has both class and tactical speed advantages. He should enjoy a perfect stalking trip and has the finishing punch to settle things in the final furlong.

Bouncer (1) at 4-1 from the Ness barn with Jamie Rodriguez is a major rival. Bouncer (1) is well-drawn for a speed horse, and if he breaks sharply, he can dictate from the inside. Even if he cedes the front to another, he should be close enough to fight on.

Boat's A Rockin (4) at 5-1 with Ismerio Villalobos is another key contender. Jonathan Maldonado's runner can sit just off the pace, and if Noble Jon (8) has any misstep, Boat's A Rockin (4) can take advantage with a timely move.

Secondary Choices

Biz Biz Buzz (9) at 6-1 is a viable secondary choice. With Samuel Marin up, Biz Biz Buzz (9) may be used to press from the outside or drop in behind the main speed. He has enough form to be very dangerous if the race shape suits.

Lord Ante (5) at 8-1, Slippin Jimmy (6) at 10-1, and The Bullion Bomber (3) at 10-1 all have exotics appeal. Lord Ante (5), with Jevian Toledo, is particularly interesting as a mid-division type with a rider who excels on turf. Slippin Jimmy (6), with Jareth Loveberry, can improve with a patient trip.

Katie's Notion (10) at 20-1, Machine Gun Man (11) at 30-1, Island D'lite (7) at 30-1, and Cecil The Great (2) at 30-1 appear more like underneath types. Machine Gun Man (11) and Katie's Notion (10) could pick up late pieces if the pace collapses.

Longshots

Island D'lite (7), Cecil The Great (2), and Machine Gun Man (11) form the longshot section. All would need significant improvement to threaten Noble Jon (8) and Bouncer (1) for the win, but one or two can be used in deep trifecta and superfecta structures.

For wagering, this race shapes as an opportunity to lean on Noble Jon (8) while still acknowledging the live nature of Bouncer (1) and Boat's A Rockin (4). Exactas and trifectas keying Noble Jon (8) over Bouncer (1), Boat's A Rockin (4), Biz Biz Buzz (9), and Lord Ante (5) are recommended. A small hedge exacta Bouncer (1) over Noble Jon (8) and Biz Biz Buzz (9) can guard against a rail-speed success.

Selections

Win: Noble Jon (8) Place: Bouncer (1) Show: Boat's A Rockin (4)

RACE 8 — Post (4:09)/3:09/2:09/1:09 — 1870f | t | A | Hcp100000 | BUM | Purse 100,000

Pace Analysis

Race 8 is a 100,000-dollar overnight handicap, the Nellie Mae Cox Handicap for older fillies and mares restricted to Virginia-bred, -sired, or -certified horses, at 1 1/16 miles on turf. Day To Day (1), Lendalfoot (2), Amie's Symphony (3), and War Madam (6) all possess tactical speed, while Quadra (7) and Nick's Notion (8) can stalk or close.

The pace should be honest but not blistering. Day To Day (1) from the inside, Lendalfoot (2) from the two-hole, and War Madam (6) from a middle post may contest the lead, with Amie's Symphony (3) sitting just off them. Nick's Notion (8) and Quadra (7) will likely bide their time mid-pack, waiting to make one run down the long Colonial stretch.

Key Contenders

Nick's Notion (8) at 3-1 is a central figure and key contender. She comes into this race off a neck defeat in the All Brandy Stakes, a strong stakes-level effort that stamps her as one of the top older turf mares among Virginia-restricted runners. Drawing the outside in a field of eight, Nick's Notion (8) will need to avoid being hung wide, but Forest Boyce is well-suited to drop over, save some ground early, and angle out with a sustained run.

Day To Day (1) at 2-1 from the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn with Edwin Gonzalez is another major player. Day To Day (1) has the rail and should secure a ground-saving trip on or near the lead. With her tactical speed, she can control the race if allowed to set moderate fractions.

Amie's Symphony (3) at 4-1 with Jorge Ruiz is a strong third contender. Michael Trombetta's mare has the profile of a consistent turf route performer, and Ruiz excels with this type at Colonial. Amie's Symphony (3) should sit in mid-pack and be well-positioned to strike if the leading trio hook up and tire.

Secondary Choices

Lendalfoot (2) at 5-1, War Madam (6) at 8-1, and Quadra (7) at 6-1 are all legitimate secondary contenders. Lendalfoot (2), from the Keri Brion barn with Martin Chuan, can be used aggressively early, perhaps pressing Day To Day (1). War Madam (6), trained by Madison Meyers with Kevin Gomez aboard, has enough tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and could be dangerous if she gets a perfect trip.

Quadra (7), another Trombetta trainee with Mychel Sanchez, looks like a true stalker/closer type who may enjoy the long run-in down the Colonial stretch. Quadra (7) can be especially dangerous if the pace is slightly stronger than expected.

Strutsherstuff (5) at 10-1, with Jamie Rodriguez up for Madison Meyers, is more of a fringe contender but can pick up a piece if she shows improvement and handles the pace.

Whimmoffortune (4) at 30-1 appears the longest shot in the group and would need a significant effort to challenge for the top spots.

Longshots

Strutsherstuff (5) and Whimmoffortune (4) are best treated as deep exotics options. They can be placed on the bottom of trifectas and superfectas to capture a price should the race produce a surprise underneath.

From a betting standpoint, this race calls for a strong stance on Nick's Notion (8), whose recent stakes form is superior, and Day To Day (1), whose inside draw and tactical speed make her a likely pace factor. Exactas Nick's Notion (8) over Day To Day (1), Amie's Symphony (3), Lendalfoot (2), and Quadra (7) are recommended, with backup exactas Day To Day (1) over Nick's Notion (8) and Amie's Symphony (3). Trifecta structures such as 8-1-3 over 8-1-2-3-7 over 1-2-3-5-7-8 can be considered by more aggressive players.

Selections

Win: Nick's Notion (8) Place: Day To Day (1) Show: Amie's Symphony (3)

RACE 9 — Post (4:41)/3:41/2:41/1:41 — 1870f | T | A | Hcp100000 | BUN | Purse 100,000

Pace Analysis

Race 9 is the companion 100,000-dollar overnight handicap, the Bert Allen Handicap for older horses restricted to Virginia-bred, -sired, or -certified runners. Two's A Crowd (9), Gramp's Legacy (6), Understudy Kitty (7), and Se Thar Barr (8) all possess tactical speed suitable for this trip. Virginia Fitz (1), Twain (2), Wow Whata Party (5), and Jolly Boss (10) can alternate between stalking and closing depending on race shape.

Two's A Crowd (9) often races in a forward position and could be placed just off the pace to avoid being part of a speed duel, while Gramp's Legacy (6) has shown the versatility to stalk or press. Understudy Kitty (7) and Se Thar Barr (8) may sit in mid-pack, waiting to strike in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Two's A Crowd (9) at 2-1 is the headline horse. With five wins from seven starts in 2026, he is widely regarded as the horse to beat in this restricted company. Derek Ryan has him in peak form, and Edwin Gonzalez rides with confidence from the outside. Two's A Crowd (9) should get a stalking or pressing trip and has the finishing kick to assert himself late.

Gramp's Legacy (6) at 2-1 is equally formidable. Jeremiah O'Dwyer's runner has won three of his last four starts, including back-to-back allowance victories, and is being pointed toward the Old Dominion Derby based on his recent success. Johan Rosado knows him well and can give Gramp's Legacy (6) a patient trip, stalking the leaders and delivering his run when it counts.

Understudy Kitty (7) at 8-1 from the Michael Matz barn with Martin Chuan is a strong third contender. Understudy Kitty (7) is likely to appreciate the Colonial turf and can sit mid-pack, moving into contention around the far turn.

Secondary Choices

Se Thar Barr (8) at 8-1, Virginia Fitz (1) at 20-1, Twain (2) at 8-1, and Wow Whata Party (5) at 10-1 make for a deep group of secondary options. Se Thar Barr (8), trained by Susan Cooney with Jorge Ruiz, has the turf experience and rider combination that often produces good efforts at Colonial. Se Thar Barr (8) can stalk from mid-pack and has sufficient finishing ability.

Virginia Fitz (1), from the Susan Cooney barn with Jevian Toledo, has the rail and could be ridden more aggressively than her odds suggest, perhaps saving ground and trying to steal a check. Twain (2), with Kevin Gomez for Madison Meyers, and Wow Whata Party (5) with Jose Vargas for James Lawrence both have the profiles of mid-pack runners who can improve into this restricted company.

Jolly Boss (10) at 15-1 is a solid turf performer and could be a forward factor from his wide draw, though he may need to work earlier to avoid losing ground.

Longshots

Sendero (3) at 30-1 and Green Beans (4) at 20-1 look like the longest shots on paper. Each would need significant improvement or a collapse among the favorites to be a serious threat. Both can be considered only for the deepest exotic structures.

From a wagering perspective, this race is about deciding how to manage Two's A Crowd (9) and Gramp's Legacy (6). Many serious players will use at least one of them as a single in multi-race wagers and structure exactas and trifectas around the pair. Exactas Two's A Crowd (9) over Gramp's Legacy (6), Understudy Kitty (7), Se Thar Barr (8), and Virginia Fitz (1) are logical, with reverse exactas Gramp's Legacy (6) over Two's A Crowd (9) and Understudy Kitty (7) as a hedge. Trifectas 9-6-7 over 9-6-1-2-7-8 over 1-2-3-4-5-7-8-9-10 are reasonable for more adventurous bettors.

Selections

Win: Two's A Crowd (9) Place: Gramp's Legacy (6) Show: Understudy Kitty (7)

RACE 10 — Post (5:05)/4:05/3:05/2:05 — 1210f | T | C | Clm 16000b | BUN | Purse 34,500

Pace Analysis

Race 10 closes the card with a turf sprint claiming event, and Launch Control (2) at 1-1 looms large as the probable controlling speed. Esoooo (4), Frye Island (6), Horsetron Supreme (7), and Sinetic (10) have enough pace to be involved early, while others like Rennie (5), Let Fly (8), Holy Joanie (9), Blessings Bestowed (11), Sometime (12), Lord Donegal (13), and Battalion Leader (14) may sit off the pace.

If Launch Control (2) breaks cleanly, he can either make the lead outright or sit just off another speed type and assert himself on the far turn.

Key Contenders

Launch Control (2) at 1-1 is the standout and clear key contender. Keri Brion's trainee with Martin Chuan has been spotted aggressively in this 16,000-dollar conditioned claiming spot and has the speed and class to justify his short price. From post 2, Launch Control (2) should secure a snug, ground-saving trip near the front and may simply be too strong for this field.

Frye Island (6) at 4-1 is the most likely challenger. Anthony Farrior's horse with Jose Vargas has tactical speed and could be positioned just off Launch Control (2). Frye Island (6) is well suited to this trip and level.

Horsetron Supreme (7) at 10-1 with Jareth Loveberry is another key contender. Horsetron Supreme (7) can stalk from mid-pack and has enough finish to be dangerous if Launch Control (2) faces pressure and tires late.

Secondary Choices

Esoooo (4) at 5-1, Let Fly (8) at 20-1, and Sinetic (10) at 20-1 are secondary options. Esoooo (4), with Samuel Marin for Gerard Ochoa, can be used forwardly and may complicate Launch Control (2)'s trip. Let Fly (8) and Sinetic (10) both come from barns that can produce improvement in turf sprints; each has the potential to outrun long odds and figure underneath.

Holy Joanie (9) at 15-1, Blessings Bestowed (11) at 15-1, and Sometime (12) at 15-1 are mid-price runners with varying degrees of exotics appeal. Holy Joanie (9) and Blessings Bestowed (11), both trained by Roland Clement, might be used as late-running types who can pick up minor checks.

Rennie (5) at 30-1 and Mchale (1) at 30-1 look like deep longshots. Lord Donegal (13) at 20-1 and Battalion Leader (14) at 20-1 have very wide draws, making their task more difficult.

Longshots

Rennie (5), Mchale (1), Lord Donegal (13), and Battalion Leader (14) round out the longshot group. Their best function in betting structures is on the bottom rungs of trifectas and superfectas, where they can inject value if the race explodes in unpredictable fashion.

Given Launch Control (2)'s dominant profile, many bettors will choose to structure this race around him. Win bets on Launch Control (2) are almost obligatory unless his odds plunge below even-money. Exactas Launch Control (2) over Frye Island (6) and Horsetron Supreme (7) are recommended, with smaller exacta and trifecta combinations including Esoooo (4), Holy Joanie (9), and Let Fly (8) for coverage.

Selections

Win: Launch Control (2) Place: Frye Island (6) Show: Horsetron Supreme (7)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Jorge Ruiz has multiple key mounts on the card, including Cool Hard Breeze (2) in Race 1, Panama Canal (5) in Race 2, Goalpost (1) in Race 3, Militia (2) in Race 4, and Amie's Symphony (3) in Race 8. His strengths on turf routes make him a central figure in the early and middle races, particularly with Panama Canal (5) and Amie's Symphony (3).

Jevian Toledo is another rider to watch closely. He has Bree Cola (6) in Race 1, Verdant Tones (1) in Race 2, Molitor (7) in Race 3, Jungle Glow (2) in Race 5, Lord Ante (5) in Race 7, and Virginia Fitz (1) in Race 9. Toledo's ability to secure ground-saving trips and time late runs on turf enhances the chances of his mounts in routes and sprints alike.

Mychel Sanchez appears on several important horses, including Imperial Charter (3) in Race 3, Mila Candy (1) in Race 4, Paynted Warrior (10) in Race 5, Noble Jon (8) in Race 7, Quadra (7) in Race 8, and potentially others. His aggressive riding style can transform pace scenarios, especially in races where he has speed from inside draws.

Edwin Gonzalez rides key horses such as Hot Cocoa (7) in Race 1, Day To Day (1) in Race 8, Two's A Crowd (9) in Race 9, and others. His mounts in the two feature handicaps—Day To Day (1) and Two's A Crowd (9)—should be treated as serious win candidates.

Sonny Leon, Forest Boyce, Martin Chuan, Jose Vargas, Horacio Karamanos, and Samuel Marin all have live mounts at various points. Boyce on Nick's Notion (8) in Race 8 and Leon on Toot (11) in Race 2 and Jamalamadingdong (7) in Race 6 are riders whose turf instincts can maximize the potential of their mounts.

Overall, multi-race bettors can lean on combinations of Ruiz, Toledo, Sanchez, Gonzalez, and Loveberry in horizontal wagers, as these riders are likely to be aboard several of the day's most logical winners.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Graham Motion is represented by Panama Canal (5) in Race 2 and Goalpost (1) in Race 3. Motion's turf routers are generally well-prepared, and Panama Canal (5) stands out as a likely maiden special weight winner among state-breds.

Jamie Ness has multiple live entrants, including Mila Candy (1) in Race 4, Burning Bridges (4) in Race 6, Bouncer (1) in Race 7, and possibly others. Ness's runners often show strong early speed and are placed where they can succeed; his barn could be in for a big day with these sprint-capable horses.

Michael Trombetta conditions Amie's Symphony (3) and Quadra (7) in Race 8. Both are solid turf route horses who figure to be competitive in the Nellie Mae Cox Handicap. Trombetta's record with turf fillies and mares suggests they will run to their capabilities.

Susan Cooney has Cool Hard Breeze (2) in Race 1 and Virginia Fitz (1) and Se Thar Barr (8) in Race 9. Her familiarity with the Colonial turf and Virginia-restricted conditions makes her runners particularly noteworthy in the maiden and handicap races.

Jeremiah O'Dwyer's Gramp's Legacy (6) in Race 9 is one of the hottest horses on the grounds, entering off three wins in his last four starts and back-to-back allowance victories, making him a prime threat to Two's A Crowd (9) in the Bert Allen Handicap.

Keri Brion's Launch Control (2) in Race 10 and Lendalfoot (2) in Race 8 highlight her expanding footprint on the turf scene. Launch Control (2) is a cornerstone of the late card and should be treated as a likely winner in the finale.

Saffie Joseph Jr. has Day To Day (1) in Race 8, another major player in the Nellie Mae Cox. Madison Meyers sends out Strutsherstuff (5) and War Madam (6) in Race 8, and Twain (2) and Two's A Crowd (9) in Race 9, giving her a deep roster

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