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CTD – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 20, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Race Day Overview — CTD, September 20, 2026

Confederate Traces Downs (CTD) presents a seven-race Saturday card highlighted by a $28,000 maiden special weight at 1,430 furlongs in Race 5, a pair of $21,000-range stakes action in Race 2, and a mix of claiming and allowance contests that give the local circuit a competitive late-summer feel. The card runs from 3:45 PM through the early evening, with post times stretching into the 6:45 PM range. The track surfaces in play are dirt throughout, with a mix of straight (BUN/BUM) and oval configurations. The card leans heavily on sprints, with the notable exception of Race 3 and Race 4, both contested at 1,320 furlongs, and the maiden route in Race 5 going the marathon 1,430 furlongs.

Thomas Kenway saddles two horses in Race 1, which creates an interesting pace dynamic with Inseperable Cruise (POST 2) and One Sweet Cruise (POST 5) both in the same heat. Bill Leech also doubles up in Race 2 with Fired (POST 3) and Flight Club (POST 4), and Ron Grieves runs two horses in Race 4 with Gracie Daymaker (POST 4) and Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5), then again in Race 6 with G T Ray Sir (POST 3). Craig Robert Smith runs horses in both Race 6 and Race 7, giving him barn activity across multiple heats.

The ultra-short 300-furlong sprint in Race 1 on the BUN layout is a unique condition that rewards raw speed off the gate. Race 2's 440-furlong stakes for fillies and mares on the straightaway is a step up in class and purse, offering the card's best stakes action outside of Race 5. The overall card is well-suited to players who like to play across multiple exotics connecting sprint-oriented races.

Weather and Track Conditions

September in this region historically brings mild temperatures with moderate humidity. Conditions for September 20, 2026 are expected to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s Fahrenheit. No significant precipitation is anticipated heading into race time, which should leave the main track rated fast for the afternoon. The BUN (straight track) configuration used in the majority of today's races typically drains quickly after rain events, and with a dry forecast, there is no reason to anticipate any off-track designation. The BUM designations in Race 4 and Race 7 indicate a different surface or configuration configuration, and players should note these two races run on a distinct strip from the BUN races — watch for any surface advantage patterns that develop through the early races before committing large exotic wagers in Races 4 and 7.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

At CTD's straight track (BUN), the inside posts have historically been advantageous at the shorter sprint distances, particularly in the 300-furlong and 440-furlong events. In these ultrashort dashes, breaking quickly and maintaining a direct line to the wire is paramount, and the rail post tends to get the cleanest, most direct path. Post 1 and Post 2 at 300 furlongs carry real weight in Race 1 today. At 440 furlongs in Race 2, the rail can be slightly less dominant because horses have more time to find their stride, though the inside still commands respect.

For the oval surface races using the BUM configuration in Race 4 and Race 7, inside posts at 1,320 furlongs are less pronounced in their advantage, as the route distance gives horses and riders time to find position. Rail-skimming closers can thrive when the surface is fast and the pace is honest, but at claiming levels it often comes down to which horse gets the best trip out of the gate. No strong outside bias has been reported at CTD's oval strip, and the middle posts — 3 through 5 — tend to produce balanced results. In today's weather conditions with a fast, dry surface, expect pace-setters to be tested late and be alert for pace collapse scenarios in the sprint distances where front-runners can get loose on the lead.

RACE 1 — Post 3:45/2:45/(1:45)/12:45 — 300f | D | A | Alw 14000n2l | BUN | Purse $14,000

This is as short as it gets — 300 furlongs on the straight dirt, an allowance condition for non-winners of two lifetime. Five horses, morning line co-favorites, and a deceptively tricky card-opener. At this distance, the break is virtually the entire race. Horses that have shown elite gate speed and a low first step will dominate. There is essentially no pace scenario here — it is all about who breaks first and fastest.

Pace Analysis

With Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) and Giggette (POST 3) both posted at 2-1 on the morning line, expect both to be aggressive at the gate. Inseperable Cruise (POST 2) and One Sweet Cruise (POST 5) — both from the Kenway barn — add tactical speed to the race. In a 300-furlong straight sprint, there is no pace in the traditional sense. The horse that covers the distance in the fewest strides with the most efficient break is the winner. The question is not who pressures whom but who simply runs faster from the gate to the wire.

Key Contenders

Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) draws the rail in a 300-furlong straight sprint, which is the most coveted post in this type of race. Trained by Todd Kettleson and ridden by Silvino Morales, this horse is posted co-favorite at 2-1. The rail position eliminates any drift concern and gives the horse the shortest path to the wire on a straight track. Kettleson has a solid hand at these short distances at CTD, and Morales is a proven gate presence. The combination of post, connections, and morning line respect makes Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) the top choice in this opener.

Giggette (POST 3) is the other co-favorite at 2-1, trained by Misael Moreno and ridden by Daniel Tavares. Drawing Post 3 puts her one off the inside, which at 300 furlongs is only a minor disadvantage. Moreno's barn has been consistent at CTD and Tavares is a capable rider who can extract a big gate break. The public clearly respects Giggette (POST 3) as much as the rail horse, and that respect appears warranted.

Secondary Choices

Inseperable Cruise (POST 2) at 3-1 is trained by Thomas Kenway and ridden by Ricardo Moreno. Drawing Post 2 on a straight sprint puts this horse in an excellent position — one off the rail, clean air throughout, and no traffic issues. Kenway runs two horses today, and Inseperable Cruise (POST 2) is the morning line second-favorite among the two, suggesting the barn may lean on this one slightly more. If Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) or Giggette (POST 3) misses a step at the break, Inseperable Cruise (POST 2) is the immediate beneficiary.

One Sweet Cruise (POST 5) at 4-1 is the other Kenway entry, ridden by M.A. Campillo from the outside post. In a five-horse field at 300 furlongs, Post 5 on a straightaway is a modest disadvantage, not a dealbreaker, but the horse needs a perfect break to overcome the wider path. Campillo is a serviceable rider who can coax a quick start, and Kenway's stable knows the short-dash game.

Longshots

Dashin Mia Fame (POST 4) at 10-1 is the big price in this five-horse field, trained by Clifton G. Dennis and ridden by Gabriel Garcia Asencio. This is essentially a throw-out odds-wise unless you have strong past-performance evidence of elite gate speed. The morning line suggests the connections are realistic about their chances here. Worth including only in wide-open exotics.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The rail and co-favorites dominate the interest here. Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) is the play, with Giggette (POST 3) as the backup. A win wager on Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) is the simplest play. For exotics, box the top three — Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1), Inseperable Cruise (POST 2), and Giggette (POST 3) — in the exacta. The 1-3 exacta at fair odds could return well if both favorites run to form.

Selections

Win: Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) Place: Giggette (POST 3) Show: Inseperable Cruise (POST 2)

RACE 2 — Post 4:15/3:15/(2:15)/1:15 — 440f | D | N | Stk 21k | BUN | Purse $20,744

The card's first stakes event is a 440-furlong straight dash, most likely restricted to a specific age or gender category given the conditions listed. Six horses enter this event with a $20,744 purse, and the morning line shows a competitive race with two horses at 2-1. Stakes races at this distance at CTD tend to attract the barn's best sprinters who have shown they can win on a straight track. The Leech barn sends two horses, and the two co-favorites — Miss Fancy Nancy (POST 2) and O Seeyalater (POST 6) — set up an interesting pace scenario even at 440 furlongs.

Pace Analysis

At 440 furlongs on a straight track, pace is still minimal but more relevant than at 300 furlongs. Horses have time to find their stride and there can be a legitimate early duel if both front-runners are aggressively placed. Miss Fancy Nancy (POST 2) from the inside figures to be quickest to top speed from Post 2. O Seeyalater (POST 6) from the outside will need a superior gate break to overcome the wider post. Fired (POST 3) and Flight Club (POST 4) from the Leech barn straddle the middle of the field and will benefit if there is any trouble from the co-favorites. First Famous Prize (POST 5) and O La Dee Da (POST 1) figure to be outclassed but could factor at big prices if the field clusters.

Key Contenders

Miss Fancy Nancy (POST 2) is the logical top selection. Trained by Misael Moreno and ridden by Daniel Tavares, she draws Post 2 in a six-horse straight sprint, arguably the sweetest post available after the rail. Moreno has shown he knows how to prepare horses for this type of racing, and Tavares has already been noted as a strong gate rider on this card. The 2-1 morning line reflects genuine respect from the linemaker. Moreno is 2-for-2 in terms of confidence from the morning line maker today, having both Giggette (POST 3) in Race 1 and this runner as co-favorites.

O Seeyalater (POST 6) is the co-favorite at 2-1, also trained by Wesley T. Oulton and ridden by Alejandro Jorge Angeles from the outside post. Oulton sends two runners today — O La Dee Da (POST 1) and O Seeyalater (POST 6) — and the outside horse is clearly the barn's primary hope. Despite the Post 6 draw, this horse carries genuine talent if the linemaker has placed her at 2-1. At 440 furlongs there is more room to run than at 300, but an outside horse still needs a clean break and a straight path.

Secondary Choices

Fired (POST 3) at 4-1 is trained by William H. Leech and ridden by Ricardo Moreno from Post 3. The Leech barn runs two horses in this stakes race, and Fired (POST 3) gets the better of the two draws by a slight margin. Post 3 in the middle of a six-horse straight field gives the rider clean options and a clear sight line to the wire. At 4-1, if either of the co-favorites stumbles at the break, Fired (POST 3) is positioned to capitalize immediately.

Flight Club (POST 4) at 4-1 is the other Leech entry, ridden by Alexander Marti. Post 4 is workable in a six-horse field on a straight track, giving Marti a clear lane. In situations where a trainer doubles up in a stakes, handicappers have to decide which runner is actually the sharper one. The equal odds suggest the connections either are genuinely unsure or are trying to neutralize the exacta. Flight Club (POST 4) is live and deserves inclusion in exactas.

Longshots

First Famous Prize (POST 5) at 10-1 is trained by Bucky Stockwell and ridden by O. Amador Hernandez. This runner draws a manageable post at 440 furlongs but the morning line odds suggest it is outclassed by the top four. At 10-1 in a six-horse field, First Famous Prize (POST 5) is a trifecta-only play.

O La Dee Da (POST 1) at 20-1 is the Oulton barn's second entry and, ironically, gets the coveted rail post while the barn's preferred runner draws the outside. At 20-1, either O La Dee Da (POST 1) has a significant form or ability gap compared to O Seeyalater (POST 6), or the outside horse is simply the better horse on any given day. Despite the rail advantage at this distance, the 20-1 morning line suggests form doesn't support a serious play here. Include only in superfectas.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

With two separate trainers doubling up — Leech with Fired (POST 3) and Flight Club (POST 4), and Oulton with O La Dee Da (POST 1) and O Seeyalater (POST 6) — this race has strong exacta angles. The most appealing wager is to key MISS NANCY FANCY (POST 2) on top against Fired (POST 3), Flight Club (POST 4), and O Seeyalater (POST 6) in the exacta. A trifecta box involving these four horses would cover most reasonable outcomes. If O Seeyalater (POST 6) wins despite the post draw, the exacta back to Miss Fancy Nancy (POST 2) could return nicely.

Selections

Win: Miss Fancy Nancy (POST 2) Place: O Seeyalater (POST 6) Show: Fired (POST 3)

RACE 3 — Post 4:45/3:45/(2:45)/1:45 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 4000b | BUN | Purse $12,000

The first route distance of the day comes in Race 3 — a $4,000 claiming event going 1,320 furlongs on the oval BUN configuration. At this claiming level, the talent pool is modest and form consistency is often scattered. Five horses enter and two are co-favorites at 2-1. The low claiming price invites horses who have struggled to find their level. Pace will matter more here than in the earlier sprint races.

Pace Analysis

Buck's Fizz (POST 1) from the inside and Sportscarr (POST 3) figure as the most likely pace-setters based on their posts and connections. Somthing Elusive (POST 2) and Mr Miezie (POST 5) are both co-favorites at 2-1, suggesting they may be tactical or closing types. In a $4,000 claimer going 1,320 furlongs, pace collapse is a real possibility if any horse gets loose on the lead. Winter Falcon (POST 4) could stalk and pounce if the pace heats up early.

Key Contenders

Somthing Elusive (POST 2) at 2-1 is trained by Tom Rycroft and ridden by Brian Boodramsingh from Post 2. The rail-adjacent draw at a route distance is favorable — Somthing Elusive (POST 2) can either stalk from just off the pace or settle into a comfortable stalking trip while saving ground. Rycroft is a capable conditioner at this level and Boodramsingh is a track-based rider who knows the CTD layout.

Mr Miezie (POST 5) at 2-1 is trained by Tim Rycroft — note the different Rycroft first name from Post 2's trainer — and ridden by Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez. Drawing the outside post at 1,320 furlongs means Mr Miezie (POST 5) will need to either clear to the lead quickly or get shuffled back and rate off the pace. Gonzalez is experienced enough to manage this situation. Both Rycroft trainers competing in the same race at the same odds creates an interesting dynamic, and handicappers will need to assess which horse has the superior current form.

Secondary Choices

Buck's Fizz (POST 1) at 4-1 is trained by Jason Coney and ridden by Jose Mariano Asencio. At 1,320 furlongs, the rail post at this level means Buck's Fizz (POST 1) can save ground throughout if it can get into a forward position early. Coney has been solid at CTD with longer-distance claimers and the 4-1 price could represent value if this horse can handle the distance from the front.

Sportscarr (POST 3) at 4-1 is trained by Rod Heggie and ridden by D.D. Bryan. Post 3 at 1,320 furlongs is workable, and Sportscarr (POST 3) at the same price as Buck's Fizz (POST 1) suggests the linemaker sees them on equal footing. Bryan is a capable handler at this class level. If Sportscarr (POST 3) can control the early pace without being pressured, the horse could last at a $4,000 claiming price.

Longshots

Winter Falcon (POST 4) at 6-1 is trained by Colleen O'Hagan and ridden by Keimar Trotman. Sitting in the middle of a five-horse field at 1,320 furlongs, Winter Falcon (POST 4) has a tractable post and could be the beneficiary of a contested pace scenario. At 6-1, this is a legitimate trifecta contender and deserves inclusion in exacta boxes at value pricing.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

In a five-horse $4,000 claimer, the exotics can get thin quickly. The value approach is to take a shot at the exacta pairing Somthing Elusive (POST 2) with Winter Falcon (POST 4), as the 6-1 shot in a pace-collapse scenario could deliver a nice payout. Box the two 2-1 shots in the exacta as a baseline, and wheel the trifecta with Somthing Elusive (POST 2) and Mr Miezie (POST 5) on top over Buck's Fizz (POST 1), Sportscarr (POST 3), and Winter Falcon (POST 4) in third.

Selections

Win: Somthing Elusive (POST 2) Place: Mr Miezie (POST 5) Show: Winter Falcon (POST 4)

RACE 4 — Post 5:15/4:15/(3:15)/2:15 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 12000b | BUM | Purse $15,000

Race 4 steps up significantly in claiming price to $12,000 and switches to the BUM configuration — the oval strip — for 1,320 furlongs. Five horses enter, and the Ron Grieves barn is a dual threat here with Gracie Daymaker (POST 4) and Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5). This is the better-quality claiming race on the card and should feature a genuine pace scenario.

Pace Analysis

El Bonita Cara (POST 3) at 2-1 is the morning line favorite and likely the horse to beat on class. Jackpot Bar (POST 1) from the rail could push the pace early, and with the Grieves tandem covering Posts 4 and 5, there could be tactical maneuvering in the early stages. At $12,000 claiming on the BUM oval, mid-pack horses with tactical speed often win. A hot early pace could set up a closer.

Key Contenders

El Bonita Cara (POST 3) at 2-1 is trained by Rodney Cone and ridden by Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez. As the morning line favorite, El Bonita Cara (POST 3) draws a neutral post in the center of a five-horse field and gets the steady hand of Gonzalez, who is clearly a busy and trusted rider at this meet. At $12,000 claiming, this horse has presumably been placed correctly by Cone, who also runs Blue Granite (POST 6) in Race 6 later in the card. Cone's horses carry attention throughout today's card and El Bonita Cara (POST 3) is the barn's top priority in Race 4.

Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) at 2-1 is the second co-favorite, trained by Ron Grieves and ridden by Mauricio Malvaez. Despite the outside post in a five-horse field, Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) is co-favored with the Cone horse, suggesting genuine talent. Grieves runs two horses in this race, and the public may split support between them. However, at equal morning line odds, Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) deserves equal consideration to El Bonita Cara (POST 3).

Secondary Choices

Jackpot Bar (POST 1) at 4-1 is trained by Carson Frey and ridden by Keihton Natera from the rail. At 1,320 furlongs on the oval, Post 1 can be a significant advantage if the horse can clear to the front without issue. Frey at 4-1 could represent fair value if this horse possesses the early pace to get loose and dictate terms.

Gracie Daymaker (POST 4) at 8-1 is the second Grieves runner, ridden by N'Rico Prescod. The 8-1 morning line compared to Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) at 2-1 strongly suggests Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) is the barn's first string. Gracie Daymaker (POST 4) is a legitimate spoiler and third-place factor in trifectas, however, and at 8-1 deserves inclusion in multi-horse wagers.

Longshots

Punch Bizz (POST 2) at 15-1 is trained by Rick Hedge and ridden by Ridge Balgobin. At this price in a five-horse field, Punch Bizz (POST 2) is likely outclassed on raw numbers. Include in superfectas only.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The dual Grieves entry creates a natural exacta angle — if either horse wins, the other could easily run second as the barn controls the pace scenario with Posts 4 and 5. A key play is to box El Bonita Cara (POST 3) and Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) in the exacta while using Jackpot Bar (POST 1) as a trifecta third. If the public heavily bets the two 2-1 shots, the 1-3-5 trifecta combination at fair odds could return nicely with the rail horse involved.

Selections

Win: Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) Place: El Bonita Cara (POST 3) Show: Jackpot Bar (POST 1)

RACE 5 — Post 5:45/4:45/(3:45)/2:45 — 1430f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $28,000

The centerpiece of the card is Race 5, a $28,000 maiden special weight going 1,430 furlongs on the BUN configuration. This is the richest race of the day and carries the highest caliber of competition. Tiz Thunder (POST 1) is posted as the heavy 1-1 favorite and draws the rail. In maiden special weight competition at route distances, class and training are paramount. Six horses enter.

Pace Analysis

Tiz Thunder (POST 1) at 1-1 almost certainly possesses superior workouts or a reputation that justifies the heavy favoritism. From the rail at 1,430 furlongs, the horse can rate off the pace or press it, giving trainer Mel Snow multiple tactical options. I'm Ok (POST 2) and Kodiak Ron (POST 3) are both at 4-1, suggesting a competitive second tier. Nineoclocksomewher (POST 4) at 6-1 provides pace intrigue, while Penicillium (POST 5) at 30-1 and Final Out (POST 6) at 20-1 are longshots. At 1,430 furlongs, stamina and breeding matter. The pace will develop slowly over the early stages, and horses that can rate and finish will have the advantage over speedballs who tire.

Key Contenders

Tiz Thunder (POST 1) at 1-1 is trained by Mel Snow and ridden by Amadeo Perez from the rail. The 1-1 morning line is the linemaker's strongest possible statement — this horse is expected to be a heavy favorite by post time. Snow has placed this runner in the right spot, and Perez is a rider capable of handling a heavy chalk in a route distance maiden event. From Post 1, Tiz Thunder (POST 1) can control the pace from inside and is the clear top selection.

Kodiak Ron (POST 3) at 4-1 is trained by Todd Kettleson and ridden by Kimal Santo from Post 3. Kettleson has a solid reputation at CTD and Kodiak Ron (POST 3) draws a manageable mid-field position. At 4-1, this horse is likely Tiz Thunder (POST 1)'s primary threat and represents the best value among the contenders.

Secondary Choices

I'm Ok (POST 2) at 4-1 is trained by Mark Cloutier and ridden by Silvino Morales from Post 2. Cloutier runs two horses in this race — I'm Ok (POST 2) and Final Out (POST 6) — and the 4-1 vs. 20-1 morning line split leaves no ambiguity about which runner the barn is counting on. Morales is a strong rider with book at this meet, and the inside post gives I'm Ok (POST 2) a ground-saving path at the distance.

Nineoclocksomewher (POST 4) at 6-1 is trained by Makayla Edwards and ridden by Antonio Ambrosio Reyes. At 6-1 in a field where the favorite is at 1-1, this horse is the legitimate third contender if Tiz Thunder (POST 1) disappoints. Post 4 is manageable in a six-horse field and Reyes is an active rider at CTD.

Longshots

Final Out (POST 6) at 20-1 is the second Cloutier entry, ridden by Mauricio Malvaez. From the outside post in a maiden route, Final Out (POST 6) faces a tough task and the 20-1 price reflects the barn's own assessment. In a seven-race card trifecta, Final Out (POST 6) could sneak in at a big price if the field compresses late.

Penicillium (POST 5) at 30-1 is trained by Lorne Webb and ridden by Omar Simpson. At 30-1 in a six-horse maiden field, Penicillium (POST 5) is the race's deepest longshot. Include only in large trifecta and superfecta structures as a minor wing.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The heavy favorite in Race 5 makes this a banker race for Pick 3 and Pick 4 players. Using Tiz Thunder (POST 1) as a single in multi-race exotics while spreading in the other legs is the primary strategy. If you need to bet Race 5 standalone, a win wager on Tiz Thunder (POST 1) at 1-1 returns modest profit but is the highest-probability outcome. The value play is to use Kodiak Ron (POST 3) underneath Tiz Thunder (POST 1) in the exacta, as Kettleson's horse at 4-1 could deliver a meaningful exacta return.

Selections

Win: Tiz Thunder (POST 1) Place: Kodiak Ron (POST 3) Show: I'm Ok (POST 2)

RACE 6 — Post 6:15/5:15/(4:15)/3:15 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 6000n2l | BUN | Purse $12,000

Race 6 is a wide-open $6,000 claiming event restricted to non-winners of two lifetime, going 1,320 furlongs on the BUN configuration. Eight horses enter — the largest field of the day — and the morning line ranges from 2-1 to 15-1. Knotenloserin (POST 4) tops the morning line at 2-1, followed by Ponderosa (POST 5) at 3-1. With eight horses and a n2l condition at this price, form can be scattered and upsets are common.

Pace Analysis

With eight horses at 1,320 furlongs, pace figures to be contested early. Come On Big Lou (POST 1) from the rail, G T Ray Sir (POST 3), and Blue Granite (POST 6) could all be forward-going types depending on their past performances. Knotenloserin (POST 4) and Ponderosa (POST 5) — the two favorites — likely carry the most stamina or class advantage at this level. A contested pace would set up closers like Absolut John (POST 8) or Memorecowboythanu (POST 7) at big prices, though those odds suggest they face a genuine class gap.

Key Contenders

Knotenloserin (POST 4) at 2-1 is trained by Craig Robert Smith and ridden by Kimal Santo from Post 4. Smith is a busy trainer today, running horses in both Race 6 and Race 7, which suggests his barn is in good form. Knotenloserin (POST 4) draws a manageable center-field position and carries the top morning line respect in the widest field of the card. Santo is a capable rider who should handle the traffic in an eight-horse field.

Ponderosa (POST 5) at 3-1 is trained by Robert Henson and ridden by Amadeo Perez — who also pilots Tiz Thunder (POST 1) in Race 5. If Perez wins aboard the favorite in Race 5, he carries momentum into Race 6. Ponderosa (POST 5) at 3-1 with an active, confident jockey from Post 5 in an eight-horse field is a live contender and may offer better value than the 2-1 favorite.

Secondary Choices

G T Ray Sir (POST 3) at 4-1 is trained by Ron Grieves and ridden by N'Rico Prescod. Grieves is active throughout today's card and G T Ray Sir (POST 3) in the middle of the field at 4-1 is a strong secondary play. At a n2l condition at $6,000 claiming, any horse with even modest ability can compete, and GRIEVES has shown comfort placing horses at this level.

Come On Big Lou (POST 1) at 6-1 is trained by Tom Rycroft and ridden by Brian Boodramsingh from the rail. At 1,320 furlongs on the BUN, the inside post is useful and 6-1 represents fair value. Rycroft also runs Somthing Elusive (POST 2) in Race 3, giving the barn two shots at the card. If Come On Big Lou (POST 1) shows gate speed and clears the field early, the rail advantage combined with a pace collapse scenario makes this horse a legitimate contender.

Longshots

Alberta's Storm (POST 2) at 8-1 is trained by Cory Rumsey and ridden by Kemar Richard Chase. The even post draw is workable but the 8-1 morning line suggests limited competitive form. Worth including in larger trifecta combinations.

Blue Granite (POST 6) at 12-1 is trained by Rodney Cone and ridden by Antonio Ambrosio Reyes. Cone runs El Bonita Cara (POST 3) in Race 4 and Blue Granite (POST 6) here, suggesting an active barn day. At 12-1, this horse needs pace help to hit the board.

Memorecowboythanu (POST 7) at 15-1 is trained by Colton Reid and ridden by Alexander Marti. In an eight-horse field at this claiming level, the far outside post and long odds make this a superfecta-only runner.

Absolut John (POST 8) at 8-1 is the second Craig Robert Smith entry, ridden by Richard Balgobin from the extreme outside. Smith runs Knotenloserin (POST 4) as the favorite and Absolut John (POST 8) at 8-1, creating a barn exacta possibility. From Post 8 in a 1,320-furlong race, Absolut John (POST 8) faces a pace and position challenge, but at 8-1 in the right scenario, could sneak into the exacta beneath Knotenloserin (POST 4).

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

With eight horses at varied prices, the trifecta is the preferred wager. A structured approach: use Knotenloserin (POST 4) and Ponderosa (POST 5) on top, G T Ray Sir (POST 3) and Come On Big Lou (POST 1) underneath, and any three of the remaining horses in third. The barn exacta angle — Knotenloserin (POST 4) over Absolut John (POST 8) — is worth a small investment at double-digit returns.

Selections

Win: Knotenloserin (POST 4) Place: Ponderosa (POST 5) Show: G T Ray Sir (POST 3)

RACE 7 — Post 6:45/5:45/(4:45)/3:45 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 6000n2l | BUM | Purse $12,000

The card closes with another $6,000 n2l claiming race at 1,320 furlongs, this time on the BUM oval configuration. Eight horses enter and the morning line is anchored by Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) at 2-1 and Spadina (POST 5) at 3-1. The same conditions as Race 6 but on the oval strip give this race a slightly different texture.

Pace Analysis

Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) at 2-1 from inside could control the pace on the oval, while Spadina (POST 5) at 3-1 is likely a tactical horse that can either press or stalk. Ah Touche (POST 6) at 6-1 and Worthy Spirit (POST 7) at 4-1 add secondary pace consideration. On the BUM oval at 1,320 furlongs, the pace scenario develops more naturally than on a straight track, and mid-pack horses with strong late kicks can be very effective. A contested pace between the two favorites could set up Worthy Spirit (POST 7) or Tango For The Soul (POST 8) at live prices.

Key Contenders

Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) at 2-1 is trained by Thomas Kenway and ridden by Amadeo Perez. Kenway is three-for-three in terms of confidence today, having run two horses in Race 1 and now the morning line favorite here in Race 7. If Perez completes a strong riding day — particularly with Tiz Thunder (POST 1) in Race 5 — he will be in peak form for this closer. Post 2 on the oval is a genuine asset. Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) is the race's logical top selection.

Worthy Spirit (POST 7) at 4-1 is trained by Craig Robert Smith and ridden by Kemar Richard Chase from Post 7. Smith is busy today with Knotenloserin (POST 4) in Race 6 and Worthy Spirit (POST 7) as the card's final race primary contender. At 4-1 from an outside post on the oval, Worthy Spirit (POST 7) needs a clean trip but the trainer has shown he is placing horses correctly today.

Secondary Choices

Spadina (POST 5) at 3-1 is trained by Carson Frey and ridden by Antonio Ambrosio Reyes. Frey also ran Jackpot Bar (POST 1) in Race 4, giving the barn a two-race card presence. Spadina (POST 5) at 3-1 from a mid-field post is a legitimate second choice who can make a forward-moving move on the turn. Reyes is an active rider throughout today's card and should manage the oval trip efficiently.

Ah Touche (POST 6) at 6-1 is trained by Gonzalo Anderson and ridden by Linton Leon Steadman. The 6-1 morning line price in a field without a heavy favorite makes Ah Touche (POST 6) an attractive exacta and trifecta play. If the two top choices neutralize each other in the early pace, Ah Touche (POST 6) stalking just behind could inherit the lead.

Longshots

Taylorjoy (POST 1) at 8-1 is trained by Todd Kettleson and ridden by Keihton Natera from the rail. Kettleson's barn also ran Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) in Race 1 and Kodiak Ron (POST 3) in Race 5, making it an active day for the operation. Taylorjoy (POST 1) from the rail on the oval at 8-1 is a value play in trifectas if the pace collapses.

Tango For The Soul (POST 8) at 8-1 is trained by Jerri R. Robertson and ridden by Mauricio Malvaez from the outside post. The extreme outside in an eight-horse oval race is a challenge at this level, though Malvaez has ridden multiple horses today and knows the track. At 8-1, this horse is a trifecta add-on at best.

Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) at 2-1 draws significant support while Midnite Score (POST 4) at 15-1, trained by Ashley Gilkyson and ridden by Ridge Balgobin, is a deep longshot in a wide-open closing race. Briar's Rose (POST 3) at 20-1, trained by Jason Coney and ridden by Jose Mariano Asencio, carries the longest odds in the field alongside Briar's Rose (POST 3) and is a superfecta-only runner. Coney also ran Buck's Fizz (POST 1) in Race 3 and Briar's Rose (POST 3) completes the barn's two-race appearance.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

For the card-closing trifecta, key Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) on top and spread underneath to Spadina (POST 5), Worthy Spirit (POST 7), and Ah Touche (POST 6). Including Taylorjoy (POST 1) as a fringe third-place finisher adds value without significantly increasing cost. The exacta pairing Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) over Spadina (POST 5) at fair odds is a solid foundation wager.

Selections

Win: Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) Place: Spadina (POST 5) Show: Worthy Spirit (POST 7)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Silvino Morales is aboard Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) in Race 1 and I'm Ok (POST 2) in Race 5, giving him two prime mounts on today's card including one co-favorite and one half of a trainer's primary entry. Morales is a steady presence at CTD and his comfort in gate situations at the 300-furlong distance is well-documented by local handicappers.

Amadeo Perez carries what may be the biggest single-card workload in terms of odds-on pressure. He rides Tiz Thunder (POST 1) in Race 5 at 1-1 — the card's most consequential mount from a wagering standpoint — Ponderosa (POST 5) in Race 6 at 3-1, and Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) in Race 7 at 2-1. If Perez delivers in Race 5, he enters the final two races with significant momentum. His three mounts today are all double-digit or greater favorites in their respective fields.

Daniel Tavares rides Giggette (POST 3) in Race 1 and Miss Fancy Nancy (POST 2) in Race 2, both for trainer Misael Moreno. Having the same jockey-trainer combination double up on consecutive races is a meaningful signal — Moreno clearly trusts Tavares to handle both short-sprint situations, and if Tavares wins the opener, he will carry confidence into the stakes race.

Ricardo Moreno rides Inseperable Cruise (POST 2) in Race 1 and Fired (POST 3) in Race 2, giving him two consecutive-race mounts with chances. He is not the primary rider for either trainer but is placed in competitive mounts throughout the card.

Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez has the key mounts of El Bonita Cara (POST 3) in Race 4 and remains active throughout. He is a workhorse rider at this level who can be trusted to get the most out of mid-level claimers.

Antonio Ambrosio Reyes rides four horses today — Nineoclocksomewher (POST 4) in Race 5, Blue Granite (POST 6) in Race 6, Spadina (POST 5) in Race 7, and appears elsewhere as well. As one of the busiest riders on the card, Reyes is worth tracking for live prices in multi-race exotics.

Mauricio Malvaez handles Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) in Race 4 — a co-favorite — and Final Out (POST 6) in Race 5 and Tango For The Soul (POST 8) in Race 7. The co-favorite mount in Race 4 is his highest-profile engagement.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Thomas Kenway is the most active trainer on the card with runners in Race 1 — Inseperable Cruise (POST 2) and One Sweet Cruise (POST 5) — and Race 7 — Karensnotimpressed (POST 2). Running two horses in Race 1 and a morning line favorite in Race 7 signals a barn in good current form. The Race 1 double entry creates pace dynamics and potential exacta value, while Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) in Race 7 is clearly the barn's best horse on today's card.

Misael Moreno trains Giggette (POST 3) in Race 1 and Miss Fancy Nancy (POST 2) in Race 2 — both at 2-1 morning line odds with the same jockey. Having the barn's top runner posted as co-favorite in back-to-back races suggests Moreno has prepared this pair well. Moreno knows the straightaway format at CTD and has positioned both horses favorably.

William H. Leech doubles up in Race 2 with Fired (POST 3) and Flight Club (POST 4) in the stakes event. Both are priced at 4-1, suggesting the barn may not be certain which horse will fire better on this day. When a trainer runs two horses at equal odds in a stakes, handicappers often find that one will sacrifice its own pace to set up the other — watch for early tactical maneuvering.

Ron Grieves sends Gracie Daymaker (POST 4) and Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) in Race 4 and G T Ray Sir (POST 3) in Race 6. The 2-1 vs. 8-1 split in Race 4 makes it clear Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) is the primary shot, but Gracie Daymaker (POST 4) at 8-1 is interesting as a trifecta filler.

Craig Robert Smith runs Knotenloserin (POST 4) and Absolut John (POST 8) in Race 6 and Worthy Spirit (POST 7) in Race 7. The barn exacta play in Race 6 between the 2-1 favorite and the 8-1 companion is worth a small investment.

Todd Kettleson has three horses on the card — Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) in Race 1, Kodiak Ron (POST 3) in Race 5, and Taylorjoy (POST 1) in Race 7. An active barn day across three races with one co-favorite and one legitimate contender in the card's biggest race is notable. If Splash Mountain Mia (POST 1) and Kodiak Ron (POST 3) run competitively, Taylorjoy (POST 1) in Race 7 may be underpriced at 8-1.

Carson Frey trains Jackpot Bar (POST 1) in Race 4 and Spadina (POST 5) in Race 7 — two distinctly different claiming events, which shows versatility. Both are priced at fair value odds.

Rodney Cone trains El Bonita Cara (POST 3) in Race 4 and Blue Granite (POST 6) in Race 6, covering both the headline claiming race and the wide-open eight-horse field. El Bonita Cara (POST 3) at 2-1 is the barn's clear primary.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The card at CTD on September 20, 2026 is built around a heavy favorite in Race 5 — Tiz Thunder (POST 1) at 1-1 — and a series of competitive multi-horse races that create exotic wagering opportunities throughout. Here is the recommended approach:

The Race 5 banker is the organizing principle of today's card. Tiz Thunder (POST 1) at 1-1 should be used as a single in any Pick 3 or Pick 4 that passes through Race 5. The heavy morning line odds suggest this horse is significantly superior to its competition and any multi-race exotic anchored on this horse will dramatically increase your return from the surrounding legs where prices can be more varied.

For the Pick 3 spanning Races 5, 6, and 7: Use Tiz Thunder (POST 1) as your Race 5 single, spread to Knotenloserin (POST 4) and Ponderosa (POST 5) in Race 6, and key Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) with Spadina (POST 5) in Race 7. This is a relatively affordable ticket that covers the most likely outcomes in the card's closing sequence.

For the Pick 3 spanning Races 3, 4, and 5: Use Somthing Elusive (POST 2) with Mr Miezie (POST 5) in Race 3, Ladyace Of Speight (POST 5) with El Bonita Cara (POST 3) in Race 4, and Tiz Thunder (POST 1) single in Race 5. This mid-card sequence rewards a moderate investment with strong potential return if Tiz Thunder (POST 1) wins as expected.

The best value single play on the card is Ponderosa (POST 5) in Race 6 at 3-1. With Perez in the irons, a manageable post, and an active trainer, this horse should compete hard against Knotenloserin (POST 4). If Ponderosa (POST 5) beats the favorite, the win return at 3-1 is the best risk-adjusted wager on the full card outside of using Tiz Thunder (POST 1) to single through multi-race exotics.

The barn exacta plays to consider: Knotenloserin (POST 4) over Absolut John (POST 8) in Race 6 at what could be an attractive price; and the Kenway horses Inseperable Cruise (POST 2) over One Sweet Cruise (POST 5) or vice versa in Race 1 as a small-budget exotic wager.

For the Race 2 stakes, a trifecta box involving Miss Fancy Nancy (POST 2), Fired (POST 3), Flight Club (POST 4), and O Seeyalater (POST 6) covers four horses with genuine chances at a box cost that remains reasonable.

The race of the day for value in the exacta is Race 7 — pairing Karensnotimpressed (POST 2) over Worthy Spirit (POST 7) at 4-1 could return strong value if Smith's barn fires with the closing horse on the outside.

Avoid single-race exacta boxes in Race 3 and Race 4 where the public will likely hammer down prices. Instead, focus those races' wagers as legs in multi-race exotics where the overlay effect compounds your edge.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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