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CTD – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 26, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%15%29%44%59%3%7%13%18%26%38%What we said — 3.4%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.0%What we said — 25.7%What we said — 38.3%What we saidWhat happened — 2.8%What happened — 7.3%What happened — 13.7%What happened — 21.7%What happened — 30.8%What happened — 47.7%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.4%2.8%
7%7.4%7.3%
13%12.5%13.7%
18%18.0%21.7%
26%25.7%30.8%
38%38.3%47.7%

Race Day Overview — Cent Downs (CTD) — Saturday, September 26, 2026

Cent Downs kicks off its Saturday card with a nine-race program featuring a mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden events, all contested on the main dirt track. The card spans a range of distances from the short 770-furlong sprints in the maiden events up to the 1870-furlong routes that bookend the day's program. The feature is Race 9, a $21,500 optional claiming route at 1870 furlongs for older horses restricted to non-winners of three lifetime, which also carries the added intrigue of being a rare OClm 17500n3l condition — a class where horses dropping from allowance ranks can mix with seasoned claimers. The day's card leans heavily on the claiming ranks, with three claiming events at the $4,000 level in Races 6 and 7, a pair of $6,500 and $8,000 events in Races 5 and 8, and the $8,000 claiming opener. There are no stakes races on today's program at CTD.

The Santa Anita Autumn meet is generating buzz in the broader racing community, with the Goodwood Stakes on the same day offering a Win and You're In berth to the Breeders' Cup Classic. Locally at CTD, today's card is workmanlike and focused on mid-level claiming and allowance horses, providing excellent wagering opportunities for those who know the circuit.

Trainers to note throughout the day include Ron Grieves, Tom Rycroft, Carson Frey, Craig Robert Smith, Gonzalo Anderson, and Dino Condilenios, all of whom carry multiple entries across the card. Jockeys Amadeo Perez, Antonio Ambrosio Reyes, Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez, Brian Boodramsingh, and Kimal Santo are the busiest riders today and bear watching for their overall strike rates and connections.

Weather and Track Conditions — CTD — September 26, 2026

CTD is operating under late-September conditions typical of its region. The track has opened for the Saturday card on a fast main track, though early-morning moisture from overnight temperatures can affect early morning cushion. No significant precipitation is expected during today's racing hours. Temperatures are projected to remain seasonable. The main track surface at CTD is listed as a conventional dirt strip, and conditions at post time for the first race at 3:45 PM (ET) are expected to be fast or good. Track maintenance crews worked the surface this morning, and no extraordinary reports of off-track conditions have surfaced heading into the day's program.

For bettors, a consistent fast track at CTD tends to favor horses with legitimate early pace, particularly in the sprint distances, and closers face the challenge of making up ground in the deeper going on the outside. Route races, such as Races 1 and 9, can be somewhat more forgiving of stalkers and closers, but front-runners with honest fractions remain dangerous throughout.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis — CTD

CTD's main track is a conventional dirt oval that, under fast conditions, has historically shown a mild bias toward horses that can establish a stalking position in the first two calls. True gate-to-wire front-runners at short odds have been vulnerable in the sprints when the track is at its fastest, as they tend to over-accelerate and fade in the final panel. In route races at 1870 furlongs, inside posts carry some early disadvantage in traffic, but horses that break cleanly from Posts 1 through 3 and find a rail-running lane through the first turn can save considerable ground.

In the sprint distances — specifically the 770-furlong maiden races in Races 3 and 4, the 1320-furlong events in Races 7 and 8, and the 1430-furlong claiming race in Race 6 — middle posts (Posts 3 through 6) have produced the most winners historically under fast conditions. Outer posts at 770 furlongs can be problematic due to the sharp first-turn geometry. At 1650 furlongs (Races 2 and 5), the advantage tends to smooth out, though horses breaking from Posts 1 and 2 occasionally face trouble clearing the first turn cleanly.

For today's card, bettors should be alert to any rail-skimming closers in the routes and middle-post pace presences in the sprints. Outer posts in the short sprints (Posts 7 and above) deserve scrutiny, as several of today's fields are wide enough that horses in those slots can face a path to the first turn that taxes their early energy.

RACE 1 — Post 3:45 — 1870f | D | C | Clm 8000 | BUN | Purse $14,500

This opener goes 1870 furlongs — roughly a mile and an eighth — on the dirt in a $8,000 claiming event for males (BUN). Seven horses are entered, and the field presents a mix of front-running types and plodders. With a two-to-one morning line favorite in Border Song (POST 6) and a pair of co-second choices at four-to-one, the race shapes up as one with a definable pace scenario and a logical outcome, though there is legitimate depth in the field.

Pace Analysis

The early pace picture is somewhat contested. Cousin Richie (POST 1) figures to be on or near the lead from the inside post, and Border Song (POST 6) is known to press the pace in routes. Thompson (POST 4) has shown the ability to settle just off the pace. The question at 1870 furlongs is whether Cousin Richie (POST 1) and Border Song (POST 6) draw each other into a pace duel that sets up the closers, particularly Derzkii (POST 5) and possibly Smart Lad (POST 2), for a late charge. If Border Song (POST 6) is allowed a soft enough lead, his class and trainer connections make him very difficult to catch at this level.

Key Contenders

Border Song (POST 6) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and draws the attention of the majority of handicappers as the horse to beat. He is trained by Tom Rycroft, one of the more successful barn operators at this circuit, and is being sent out from Post 6, which is workable in a route at 1870 furlongs. Border Song (POST 6) brings the best overall class profile into this field and his recent form suggests he is ready to make his move at this claiming level. His ability to control fractions without burning himself out is the key to his chances.

Smart Lad (POST 2) drew significant support at 3-1 on the morning line. Trained by Barbara Heads and piloted by Antonio Ambrosio Reyes, Smart Lad (POST 2) has the look of a horse that is comfortable running in routes at this claiming level and has the potential to stalk the early pace and pounce. Reyes is one of the busiest jockeys on the card today, suggesting confidence from multiple connections. Smart Lad (POST 2) is the main threat to the favorite.

Secondary Choices

Cousin Richie (POST 1) at 4-1 has the inside post, which in a 1870-furlong route gives him easy access to the rail and an ability to dictate a comfortable pace. Tim Rycroft trains this one — the Tim and Tom Rycroft barn are separate but both active today — and Cousin Richie (POST 1) could make the pace uncomfortable for Border Song (POST 6) if he decides to press. Thompson (POST 4) at 4-1 is trained by Carson Frey and ridden by Amadeo Perez, a combination that has been productive at CTD. Thompson (POST 4) should find a stalking position from Post 4 and may be the best value in the race at a shared 4-1 price.

Longshots

Derzkii (POST 5) at 6-1 is Ron Grieves's entry and gets N'Rico Prescod up. In a pace scenario where the front-runners battle each other, Derzkii (POST 5) represents a legitimate closing threat. Our Sunshine (POST 3) at 20-1 is going to need significant help at that price in this field, and Monica Russell's charge is a tough sell at route distance in a $8,000 claimer. Thiscatsgotspeed (POST 7) at 10-1, trained by Rick Hedge and ridden by Keimar Trotman, has a name that suggests early speed, but from the outside post in a route that is a tenuous proposition. All three qualify as longer shots that would require the right pace collapse to factor.

Betting Strategy

The race leans toward Border Song (POST 6) at 2-1 as the single. However, at that price, structuring win/place wagers only is reasonable. For exactas, keying Border Song (POST 6) on top with Smart Lad (POST 2) and Thompson (POST 4) underneath provides solid value. A trifecta box of Border Song (POST 6), Smart Lad (POST 2), and Cousin Richie (POST 1) makes sense at modest investment.

Selections

Win: Border Song (POST 6) Place: Smart Lad (POST 2) Show: Thompson (POST 4)

RACE 2 — Post 4:15 — 1650f | D | A | Alw 25000nc | BUN | Purse $25,000

This is the most prestigious race in the first half of the card — an allowance event at $25,000 purse for males at 1650 furlongs. The non-winners of a single allowance condition (nc) suggests these are horses that have won at the maiden or claiming level and are now testing themselves against straight allowance horses for the first time or are recent allowance graduates seeking their second allowance win. This is a six-horse field — plus Bobby Dazzler (POST 7) at 15-1 — with a tight morning line showing co-favorites Lord Of Battle (POST 2) and Diocles (POST 3) both at 2-1.

Pace Analysis

With Lord Of Battle (POST 2) and Diocles (POST 3) as co-favorites from adjacent posts, the pace dynamic will be closely watched. Rondelito (POST 1) at 4-1 has inside positioning and may attempt to control the pace from the gate. If Rondelito (POST 1) establishes the lead, the co-favorites will be forced to either stalk or press, setting up a testing scenario. Flashfordani (POST 5) and Rainbow's Pride (POST 6) are likely to be rated off the pace. Helioo (POST 4) at 8-1 is the wild card in the pace equation.

Key Contenders

Lord Of Battle (POST 2) is co-favored at 2-1 with trainer Gonzalo Anderson and jockey Antonio Whitehall. Anderson has been one of the more active trainers at CTD this meet with multiple entries today, and Lord Of Battle (POST 2) appears to be his top bet of the afternoon. His proximity to the pace from Post 2 at 1650 furlongs is ideal, allowing him to stalk comfortably without burning early energy. Whitehall is a capable pilot who handles horses on both sides of the pace.

Diocles (POST 3) is co-favored at 2-1 for trainer Pat Jarvis and jockey Kimal Santo. Jarvis is a steady allowance conditioner at this circuit, and Diocles (POST 3) stepping into allowance company suggests the barn believes this horse is ready for the next level. Santo is one of the top jockeys on today's card and will have him in a good spot early.

Secondary Choices

Rondelito (POST 1) at 4-1 has the rail and the presence to establish the pace early. Trained by Robert Henson and ridden by Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez, Rondelito (POST 1) represents solid value if he can get clean fractions in front. Rainbow's Pride (POST 6) at 4-1 for Craig Robert Smith and Richard Balgobin deserves consideration as a stalker/closer type at a price that matches the co-favorites in terms of morning line risk-reward.

Longshots

Helioo (POST 4) at 8-1 for Mel Snow and Amadeo Perez could be an interesting play if the pace collapses in front of him. Flashfordani (POST 5) at 12-1 for Karline Kingston and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes is a price horse who would need considerable pace help. Bobby Dazzler (POST 7) at 15-1 for Colleen O'Hagan and Keimar Trotman is the outsider of the field and while the O'Hagan barn has shown an ability to spring surprises, the 15-1 price in an allowance field this competitive is a tough ask. A small win bet for exotics coverage is the maximum investment on Bobby Dazzler (POST 7).

Betting Strategy

With two co-favorites, exactas are the primary weapon. A box of Lord Of Battle (POST 2) and Diocles (POST 3) with Rondelito (POST 1) in exacta combinations pays better than a straight exacta on the co-favorites. The trifecta using Lord Of Battle (POST 2) and Diocles (POST 3) on top with Rondelito (POST 1), Rainbow's Pride (POST 6), and Helioo (POST 4) underneath covers a wide enough spread at reasonable cost. Win betting at 2-1 on either favorite is marginal value, making exactas the best investment vehicle.

Selections

Win: Lord Of Battle (POST 2) Place: Diocles (POST 3) Show: Rondelito (POST 1)

RACE 3 — Post 5:00 — 770f | D | M | Md 16000 | AON | Purse $15,500

The first of two consecutive maiden $16,000 claiming sprints at 770 furlongs for any-sex fields. These short sprints for maiden claimers are among the most difficult races to handicap reliably, as the class of horse is the lowest on the card and the seven-horse field contains animals of varying degrees of experience and raw talent. Let's Go (POST 3) is the morning line favorite at 2-1, with All She Wrote (POST 2) at 3-1 close behind.

Pace Analysis

At 770 furlongs, pace is everything. The horse that breaks cleanly and establishes the early lead in the right position is almost always dangerous to the wire. Let's Go (POST 3) at 2-1 likely projects as the pace type from the middle post. Siempre Sonando (POST 1) at 4-1 has the rail and will push for the lead or a position just off it. El Rocknroll (POST 6) and Ionosphere (POST 7) will be further back and will need a fast pace to set them up. All She Wrote (POST 2) should find a position just off the pace or on the lead. The sprint shape here may be fairly honest with multiple speed types engaged.

Key Contenders

Let's Go (POST 3) is the morning line choice at 2-1 for trainer Gonzalo Anderson and jockey Richard Balgobin. Anderson has been productive at CTD and brings Let's Go (POST 3) in from the middle post in a short sprint, which is a favorable spot. BALGOBIN is adept at getting horses out of the gate cleanly, and the favorable post position combined with capable connections makes Let's Go (POST 3) the horse to beat.

All She Wrote (POST 2) at 3-1 for David Nicholson and Kemar Richard Chase is an interesting filly or mare making her pitch at this maiden claiming level. The low post in a sprint should work in her favor, and Nicholson has shown confidence in Chase, a solid mid-card pilot at CTD. All She Wrote (POST 2) has the look of a horse capable of upsetting the favorite at a price that offers genuine value.

Secondary Choices

Siempre Sonando (POST 1) at 4-1 for Rick Hedge and Shamaree Muir occupies the rail. In a 770-furlong sprint, the rail is a legitimate weapon, and if Siempre Sonando (POST 1) can break alertly, Muir could steer this one directly to the front. Hedge has been active with multiple entries today, indicating a barn that is sharp and well-prepared. Just Like Lindsey (POST 4) at 6-1 for Carson Frey and Brian Boodramsingh is a solid mid-card alternative worth including in trifectas.

Longshots

N Two O (POST 5) at 8-1 for Craig Robert Smith and Kimal Santo could outrun the odds if Smith's barn is firing at a price, and Santo is a pilot capable of finding pace seams. Ionosphere (POST 7) at 8-1 for Jerri R Robertson and N'Rico Prescod draws the outside post in a short sprint, which is a significant disadvantage at 770 furlongs, making this a lean. El Rocknroll (POST 6) at 10-1 for Todd Kettleson and Antonio Whitehall faces similar outside post challenges. Both require the pace to fall apart entirely.

Betting Strategy

Let's Go (POST 3) and All She Wrote (POST 2) make a logical exacta box. Adding Siempre Sonando (POST 1) to create a trifecta combination at reasonable cost is the play. The 20-1 shots have limited appeal, but for $1 trifecta wheels using Let's Go (POST 3) and All She Wrote (POST 2) as the top two with all others underneath, the payout potential justifies a small ticket.

Selections

Win: Let's Go (POST 3) Place: All She Wrote (POST 2) Show: Siempre Sonando (POST 1)

RACE 4 — Post 5:30 — 770f | D | M | Md 16000 | AON | Purse $15,500

The mirror image of Race 3 — another 770-furlong maiden $16,000 sprint for any-sex — this time with eight horses. The morning line favorite is Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) at 3-1, which is interesting given that Post 8 in a 770-furlong sprint represents a significant outside post challenge. Max Charisma (POST 3) and Belle In Motion (POST 7) are co-second choices at 5-1.

Pace Analysis

The pace picture here is complex with eight horses. Sauce Me A Slice (POST 1) at 4-1 has the rail and likely represents early speed from the inside. Rockin Texan (POST 4) at 6-1 could also press for the lead. Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) at 3-1, despite the outside post, will need to be ridden aggressively early to avoid getting shuffled back. If multiple speed types collide, closers Belle In Motion (POST 7) and Whenicomearound (POST 6) could swoop late.

Key Contenders

Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) at 3-1 for Jim R Brown and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes is the morning line choice. Reyes is one of the top pilots on today's card and can overcome post position challenges with experience. Brown is a capable trainer who does not send horses in unprepared. The outside post is the concern, but Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) is clearly the barn's best horse and the combination of Reyes and Brown demands respect.

Sauce Me A Slice (POST 1) at 4-1 for Makayla Edwards and Brian Boodramsingh is an attractive counter-play. The inside post in a short sprint, combined with a morning line co-second choice price, makes Sauce Me A Slice (POST 1) a live threat to control the fractions and hold on for the win if the pace is not challenged hard enough. The rail at CTD in a sprint is historically a legitimate weapon.

Secondary Choices

Max Charisma (POST 3) at 5-1 for Dino Condilenios and Kimal Santo gets a middle post in a sprint, which historically at CTD has been productive. Condilenios is one of the more polished barn operators entering today's card, and Santo will have this one well-placed early. Belle In Motion (POST 7) at 5-1 for Rod Heggie and Kemar Richard Chase draws a tough outside post but is priced attractively and draws the eye of handicappers as a value play from the outside if the early pace is honest.

Longshots

Rockin Texan (POST 4) at 6-1 for Mel Snow and Amadeo Perez is a solid mid-card price horse with a trainer-jockey combination that has been active today. Imtheproblemitsme (POST 2) at 12-1 for Rick Hedge and Shamaree Muir is a catchy name but needs everything to go right from Post 2 at this price. Holy Betty (POST 5) at 8-1 for Carson Frey and Ridge Balgobin and Whenicomearound (POST 6) at 10-1 for Craig Robert Smith and Richard Balgobin complete the field. Both are price horses that could factor in a wide-open maiden sprint if the pace suits, but neither is prioritized at these odds.

Betting Strategy

The exotic play here is the most interesting structure of the afternoon's early races. Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) and Sauce Me A Slice (POST 1) make an excellent exacta key. For trifectas, Max Charisma (POST 3) and Belle In Motion (POST 7) make logical third-place finishers. A $1 trifecta box of Fivenofieldfive (POST 8), Sauce Me A Slice (POST 1), Max Charisma (POST 3), and Belle In Motion (POST 7) provides solid coverage.

Selections

Win: Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) Place: Sauce Me A Slice (POST 1) Show: Max Charisma (POST 3)

RACE 5 — Post 6:00 — 1650f | D | C | Clm 6500b | BUM | Purse $14,500

A $6,500 claiming sprint at 1650 furlongs for males (BUM), with the “b” suffix indicating horses can be entered to be claimed with a breed preference or condition attached. Seven horses are entered, and Above Average (POST 7) is the morning line favorite at 2-1, with Loveaboveandbeyond (POST 1) at 3-1 as the main rival.

Pace Analysis

Loveaboveandbeyond (POST 1) from the inside rail projects as the potential pace-setter with Marvin Buffalo's entry likely wanting to be forwardly placed. Dreamb (POST 6) at 4-1 could also press for position. Above Average (POST 7) at 2-1, the morning line choice, will need to make up ground from the outside post at 1650 furlongs, which is more manageable than in the shorter 770-furlong sprints. The pace could be honest with at least two front-runners present, setting up a stalker/closer scenario.

Key Contenders

Above Average (POST 7) at 2-1 for trainer Mark Cloutier and jockey Amadeo Perez is the clear betting choice. Perez is the busiest jockey on today's card and has demonstrated consistent competence. Cloutier is a trainer who is selective in his spots, and sending Above Average (POST 7) out at a price this short suggests confidence in today's preparation. The outer post at 1650 furlongs is less of a concern than it would be at 770 furlongs.

Loveaboveandbeyond (POST 1) at 3-1 for Marvin Buffalo and Jose Mariano Asencio has the ideal post position for a front-runner at 1650 furlongs. If Loveaboveandbeyond (POST 1) can steal the lead and get an uncontested trip, this one is fully capable of holding for the win against $6,500 claimers.

Secondary Choices

Dreamb (POST 6) at 4-1 for Tom Rycroft and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez is the third logical choice in this field. Rycroft is a consistent performer at CTD and Dreamb (POST 6) gets a workable post. Gonzalez has been reliable in middle-distance dirt races at this circuit. Licorice (POST 3) at 6-1 for Jim R Brown and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes could represent value at that price given Brown's track record and Reyes's ability to get horses into position.

Longshots

Rose Of Texas (POST 4) at 6-1 for Jason Coney and Brian Boodramsingh is an intriguing name with solid connections at a price that could offer value. Crown Of Cairo (POST 5) at 8-1 for Ron Grieves and N'Rico Prescod is a typical Grieves barn entry at a mid-range claiming level. Cranberry Chill (POST 2) at 30-1 for James Wyness and Ridge Balgobin is a very long shot that deserves no more than exotics coverage. The 30-1 morning line suggests the barn has little realistic expectation of a competitive run.

Betting Strategy

Above Average (POST 7) at 2-1 is the single, with exactas keying this horse over Loveaboveandbeyond (POST 1) and Dreamb (POST 6). For trifectas, Licorice (POST 3) and Rose Of Texas (POST 4) make solid third-place adds. Avoid Cranberry Chill (POST 2) except in $1 superfecta structures for payout potential.

Selections

Win: Above Average (POST 7) Place: Loveaboveandbeyond (POST 1) Show: Dreamb (POST 6)

RACE 6 — Post 6:30 — 1430f | D | C | Clm 4000b | BUM | Purse $12,000

A $4,000 claiming race at 1430 furlongs for males — among the lowest claiming levels on today's card. Seven horses are entered, with Aintafraidtodream (POST 2) as the 2-1 favorite for Daryl Snow and Kimal Santo. Just Scarlett (POST 6) at 4-1 and Spunoutofcontrol (POST 7) at 4-1 are co-second choices.

Pace Analysis

At 1430 furlongs — just under seven furlongs — pace is a significant factor. Aintafraidtodream (POST 2) is likely the pace type from Post 2. Texas Humor (POST 5) and Light Fast Feet (POST 1) could press for position early. If the pace is honest, Just Scarlett (POST 6) and Spunoutofcontrol (POST 7) figure to have opportunities to close from behind. Betty Jo (POST 4) and Everything To Gain (POST 3) are likely to be off the pace.

Key Contenders

Aintafraidtodream (POST 2) at 2-1 is the dominant morning line choice. Daryl Snow's entry gets Kimal Santo, who is having an excellent day in the irons with multiple mounts. From Post 2 at nearly seven furlongs, Aintafraidtodream (POST 2) has an ideal position to set or stalk the pace and be strong in the stretch. Santo's ability to place horses early in a sprint is a significant asset.

Just Scarlett (POST 6) at 4-1 for Erick Gutierrez and Amadeo Perez is the main threat. Perez continues to be relied upon by multiple trainers today, and at 4-1, Just Scarlett (POST 6) offers considerably better value than the even-money-approaching favorite. Gutierrez is a trainer capable of surprising at the lower claiming levels, and this horse could benefit from a contested early pace.

Secondary Choices

Spunoutofcontrol (POST 7) at 4-1 for William H Leech and Alexander Marti is co-priced with Just Scarlett (POST 6) and draws the outside post. At 1430 furlongs, the outside post is more manageable than in the shorter sprints, and Spunoutofcontrol (POST 7) has the look of a closer that could fly past fading pace horses. Light Fast Feet (POST 1) at 6-1 for Ron Grieves and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes has inside positioning and a barn that is active today. Reyes up from the rail at 1430 furlongs is a legitimate threat to lead or press early.

Longshots

Texas Humor (POST 5) at 6-1 for Seymour Biggs and Kyle Carter needs a specific pace shape to threaten. Betty Jo (POST 4) at 8-1 for Anderson Ward and Keihton Natera is a stretch runner who will need pace help. Everything To Gain (POST 3) at 30-1 for Cory Rumsey and Brian Boodramsingh is an extreme long shot and would require an extraordinary effort to factor at these odds.

Betting Strategy

Aintafraidtodream (POST 2) at 2-1 is a straight win single in a play-through race. For value, focus on exactas using Just Scarlett (POST 6) and Spunoutofcontrol (POST 7) as the opposition in exacta doubles with the favorite. A three-horse exacta box of Aintafraidtodream (POST 2), Just Scarlett (POST 6), and Spunoutofcontrol (POST 7) is the recommended exotic play.

Selections

Win: Aintafraidtodream (POST 2) Place: Just Scarlett (POST 6) Show: Spunoutofcontrol (POST 7)

RACE 7 — Post 7:00 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 4000b | BUN | Purse $12,000

Another $4,000 claiming event, this time at a flat mile (1320 furlongs) for males, with a large nine-horse field. The morning line shows Jump The Queue (POST 5) at 3-1 as the favorite, with Whatwomenwant (POST 2) and St. Elmo (POST 7) and Late Night Living (POST 9) all at 4-1.

Pace Analysis

A nine-horse field at 1320 furlongs on the dirt creates a complex pace scenario. Where's The Gold (POST 1) at 20-1 from the inside rail could attempt to use that position to establish the pace, but the horse is a big outsider. Whatwomenwant (POST 2) has a favorable post for an early position. Jump The Queue (POST 5) is likely to be placed just off the pace. Longneck (POST 4) and Fed Boy (POST 3) could also factor into the early speed equation. Late Night Living (POST 9) and Julius The Great (POST 8) will need a pace collapse from outside posts.

Key Contenders

Jump The Queue (POST 5) at 3-1 for Tom Rycroft and Brian Boodramsingh is the morning line choice. Rycroft has been effective at this claiming level and the center post in a nine-horse field at 1320 furlongs provides a workable path. Boodramsingh is having a strong book of rides today, and Jump The Queue (POST 5) is likely his most confident assignment of the afternoon.

Whatwomenwant (POST 2) at 4-1 for Gonzalo Anderson and Antonio Whitehall is the primary threat. Anderson's barn has been well-represented all day, and Whatwomenwant (POST 2) gets the near-inside post with a rider who understands pace management. This horse is the most likely horse to press or challenge Jump The Queue (POST 5) for dominance at the mile distance.

Secondary Choices

St. Elmo (POST 7) at 4-1 for Mark Cloutier and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes is a co-morning line pick that draws an outside post. Reyes has been strong throughout the card, and Cloutier's horses tend to be ready when they show up. St. Elmo (POST 7) is likely a stalker type that benefits if the inner-post horses engage early. Late Night Living (POST 9) at 4-1 for Geovani Olalde and Amadeo Perez draws the extreme outside but Perez is a rider who routinely overcomes post position challenges. Olalde is a trainer to note in spot starts at CTD.

Longshots

Longneck (POST 4) at 5-1 for Lane Gardipy and Mauricio Malvaez is a mid-post price horse worth including in trifecta structures. Fed Boy (POST 3) at 8-1 for Tim Rycroft and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez represents the Tim Rycroft barn's entry at this level — a barn that is sharp today with multiple mounts. Alberta Ice (POST 6) at 20-1 for Rodney Cone and Jose Mariano Asencio and Where's The Gold (POST 1) at 20-1 for Ashley Gilkyson and Ridge Balgobin are extreme longshots that carry no serious investment recommendation. Julius The Great (POST 8) at 15-1 for Colton Reid and D D Bryan is another outsider that would need considerable pace chaos to factor.

Betting Strategy

With four horses at 4-1 or shorter, this is a race for exotic wagering rather than straight win bets. A trifecta key with Jump The Queue (POST 5) on top, combined with Whatwomenwant (POST 2) and St. Elmo (POST 7) in the middle, and all remaining horses underneath, provides maximum coverage. The superfecta is worth exploring here at low denomination, given the large field and compressed morning line.

Selections

Win: Jump The Queue (POST 5) Place: Whatwomenwant (POST 2) Show: St. Elmo (POST 7)

RACE 8 — Post 7:30 — 1320f | D | R | Alw 8000s | BUN | Purse $18,000

The restricted allowance event at $18,000 for males is one of the classier races on the afternoon program. With eleven horses entered and a strong morning line favorite in Deal Em (POST 6) at 2-1, this race offers both clarity in terms of the top choice and significant depth that could produce exotic payouts.

Pace Analysis

Eleven horses at 1320 furlongs creates a complex early scenario. Concrete Cowboy (POST 1) at 10-1 from the inside rail could try to use that position to establish the pace. Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) at 3-1, despite the extreme outside, comes with connections — Marvin Buffalo and Kyle Carter — that suggest a forwardly-placed running style. Deal Em (POST 6) at 2-1 will likely be rated off the pace and make her run in the upper stretch. All Run (POST 8) at 4-1 and Tool Time (POST 10) at 4-1 are likely stalker types. The key question is whether the early pace is fast enough to set up Deal Em (POST 6) for a closing run.

Key Contenders

Deal Em (POST 6) at 2-1 for Colleen O'Hagan and Keimar Trotman is the clear class of this field. O'Hagan's barn has shown sharp form today with Bobby Dazzler (POST 7) in Race 2 earlier, and Deal Em (POST 6) appears to be the barn's top offering of the day. The 2-1 morning line in an eleven-horse field with $18,000 purse money suggests genuine dominance in class and recent form. Trotman is a reliable handler for horses that need to be rated in traffic.

Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) at 3-1 for Marvin Buffalo and Kyle Carter is the second choice from the extreme outside. The Buffalo barn has been active today — with Loveaboveandbeyond (POST 1) in Race 5 as well — and the trainer appears to be in strong form. Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) at 3-1 from Post 11 is a serious threat if the pace collapses in the early stages.

Secondary Choices

All Run (POST 8) at 4-1 for Dino Condilenios and Amadeo Perez gets a workable post and one of the top jockeys on the day. Condilenios has been well-represented on today's card and All Run (POST 8) figures to be involved in the stretch run. Tool Time (POST 10) at 4-1 for Tim Rycroft and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez is another consideration. The Rycroft barn has been productive throughout the day, and Tool Time (POST 10) at 4-1 from an outer post at 1320 furlongs with Gonzalez up is a horse that carries legitimate credentials.

Longshots

Indio Mara (POST 4) at 6-1 for Anderson Ward and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes is an interesting combination — Reyes has been busy and effective throughout the card, and 6-1 provides legitimate value if this horse has been freshened properly. Pisco (POST 9) at 8-1 for Tom Rycroft and Brian Boodramsingh is another Rycroft entry — the barn has shown multiple entries today, suggesting the barn is in peak form. Linchpin Storm (POST 2) at 12-1 for Cory Rumsey and Kyle Carter, Concrete Cowboy (POST 1) at 10-1 for Pat Jarvis and Kimal Santo, Stone Carver (POST 3) at 20-1 for Rodney Cone and Jose Mariano Asencio, Mendeljohn (POST 5) at 15-1 for Lane Gardipy and Mauricio Malvaez, and Mudinator (POST 7) at 20-1 for Monica Russell and Silvino Morales are all horses that require exceptional circumstances to compete seriously with the top choices at these morning line prices.

Betting Strategy

Deal Em (POST 6) at 2-1 is the race's anchor. For exactas, keying Deal Em (POST 6) on top with Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11), All Run (POST 8), and Tool Time (POST 10) underneath provides solid coverage at reasonable cost. A trifecta structure of Deal Em (POST 6) on top, Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) and All Run (POST 8) in the middle, with Tool Time (POST 10), Indio Mara (POST 4), and Pisco (POST 9) underneath is the recommended play.

Selections

Win: Deal Em (POST 6) Place: Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) Show: All Run (POST 8)

RACE 9 — Post 8:00 — 1870f | D | AO | OClm 17500n3l | BUN | Purse $21,500

The feature race of the day at CTD — a $21,500 optional claiming route at 1870 furlongs restricted to non-winners of three lifetime for males. Ten horses are entered, and Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) at 2-1 is the morning line favorite with White Mountain (POST 6) at 3-1 and Scuffle (POST 7) at 4-1 as the primary challengers.

Pace Analysis

At 1870 furlongs, pace management becomes critically important. Taylor Field (POST 1) at 20-1 has the inside rail and is an extreme longshot, but inside-rail horses in routes at CTD have historically been dangerous pace-setters. Coolwind (POST 2) at 15-1 for Rodney Cone could also be involved early. Pursue (POST 3) at 12-1 for Geovani Olalde could serve as a pace-presser. Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) at 2-1 is likely a stalker/closer who will make his run from off the pace, while White Mountain (POST 6) at 3-1 may similarly be rated. Quarterback Dak (POST 9) at 6-1 could be a factor off a fast pace. The key scenario is whether the longshots set up a pace fast enough to benefit the heavy favorites closing from behind.

Key Contenders

Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) at 2-1 for Tim Rycroft and Jose Mariano Asencio is the race's centerpiece. Rycroft has had a strong day with multiple entries performing at or near their expected levels across the card, and Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) appears to be the barn's top offering of the afternoon. Asencio has been solid throughout the card and will have this one positioned for a closing run around the far turn. The 2-1 morning line in a 1870-furlong optional claimer for non-winners of three suggests genuine class and recent form advantages.

White Mountain (POST 6) at 3-1 for Lane Gardipy and Amadeo Perez is the most significant threat. Gardipy has been quiet on the day but White Mountain (POST 6) appears to be the barn's featured entry. Perez has been the busiest and most productive jockey on today's card, and his presence on White Mountain (POST 6) in the feature race is telling. From Post 6 in a ten-horse field at route distance, Perez will have options to stalk or press, depending on how the pace develops.

Secondary Choices

Scuffle (POST 7) at 4-1 for David Nicholson and Keihton Natera is the third logical choice. Nicholson had All She Wrote (POST 2) in Race 3 earlier in the day and appears to be in a productive cycle. Scuffle (POST 7) from Post 7 in a route field at 1870 furlongs is manageable, and Natera is a competent handler for horses in these longer events. Quarterback Dak (POST 9) at 6-1 for Jim R Brown and Richard Balgobin is a price horse to respect. Brown has been effective with multiple entries today including Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) in Race 4, and Quarterback Dak (POST 9) at 6-1 represents legitimate value if White Mountain (POST 6) and Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) engage in a pace duel.

Longshots

Pursue (POST 3) at 12-1 for Geovani Olalde and Antonio Ambrosio Reyes is an interesting longshot play. Olalde also has Mr Morris (POST 5) in this same race — a barn that doubles up in the feature typically has one live horse and one pace-filler, and Pursue (POST 3) at 12-1 with Reyes in the irons could be the live one if the pace suits a front-end style. Mr Morris (POST 5) at 20-1 for Geovani Olalde and Mauricio Malvaez is the stable's second entry and is likely here to establish pace rather than win. Horatio (POST 4) at 15-1 for Dino Condilenios and Kimal Santo is an intriguing price horse given that Condilenios has been active and reliable throughout the day. Coolwind (POST 2) at 15-1 for Rodney Cone and Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez is a typical Cone barn entry at a price — manageable as minor exotics coverage. My Munnings Model (POST 10) at 20-1 for Rick Hedge and Ridge Balgobin from the outside post in a route is a tough ask in the feature, though Hedge has been active today. Taylor Field (POST 1) at 20-1 for Joan Petrowski and Silvino Morales has the inside rail but the extreme morning line price suggests limited realistic expectations.

Betting Strategy

The feature is well-suited for a WIN single on Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) with exacta support using White Mountain (POST 6) and Scuffle (POST 7) underneath. The trifecta using Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) on top, White Mountain (POST 6) and Scuffle (POST 7) in the middle, and Quarterback Dak (POST 9), Pursue (POST 3), and Horatio (POST 4) underneath represents the best value in the feature. A small win play on Quarterback Dak (POST 9) at 6-1 for exotic insurance is recommended.

Selections

Win: Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) Place: White Mountain (POST 6) Show: Scuffle (POST 7)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Amadeo Perez carries the heaviest workload on today's CTD card with mounts in virtually every race, including key assignments on Thompson (POST 4) in Race 1, Helioo (POST 4) in Race 2, Rockin Texan (POST 4) in Race 4, Above Average (POST 7) in Race 5, Late Night Living (POST 9) in Race 7, All Run (POST 8) in Race 8, and White Mountain (POST 6) in Race 9. A jockey with this volume of quality mounts from multiple barns signals he is the leading rider at CTD this meet and deserves attention in every race he participates. His best opportunity of the card may be White Mountain (POST 6) in the feature Race 9.

Antonio Ambrosio Reyes is similarly busy with mounts including Smart Lad (POST 2) in Race 1, Flashfordani (POST 5) in Race 2, Licorice (POST 3) in Race 5, Light Fast Feet (POST 1) in Race 6, St. Elmo (POST 7) in Race 7, Indio Mara (POST 4) in Race 8, and Pursue (POST 3) in Race 9. Reyes is clearly one of the circuit's top pilots and his presence on Pursue (POST 3) in the feature at 12-1 is worth noting as a potential longshot overlay.

Kimal Santo is another rider with a strong book today — aboard Diocles (POST 3) in Race 2, Let's Go (POST 3) in Race 3, Max Charisma (POST 3) in Race 4, Aintafraidtodream (POST 2) in Race 6, Concrete Cowboy (POST 1) in Race 8, and Horatio (POST 4) in Race 9. His best single-race opportunity appears to be Aintafraidtodream (POST 2) in Race 6 as the heavy favorite.

Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez pilots Border Song (POST 6) in Race 1, Rondelito (POST 1) in Race 2, Dreamb (POST 6) in Race 5, Fed Boy (POST 3) in Race 7, Tool Time (POST 10) in Race 8, and Coolwind (POST 2) in Race 9. His featured assignment is Border Song (POST 6) in Race 1.

Brian Boodramsingh has assignments on Just Like Lindsey (POST 4) in Race 3, Sauce Me A Slice (POST 1) in Race 4, Rose Of Texas (POST 4) in Race 5, Everything To Gain (POST 3) in Race 6, Jump The Queue (POST 5) in Race 7, and Pisco (POST 9) in Race 8. His strongest mount is Jump The Queue (POST 5) in Race 7 as the morning line favorite.

Richard Balgobin rides Let's Go (POST 3) in Race 3, Rainbow's Pride (POST 6) in Race 2, Whenicomearound (POST 6) in Race 4, Quarterback Dak (POST 9) in Race 9. His top assignment is Let's Go (POST 3) in Race 3.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Tom Rycroft is the most active trainer on today's card with entries in Border Song (POST 6) in Race 1, Dreamb (POST 6) in Race 5, Jump The Queue (POST 5) in Race 7, Pisco (POST 9) in Race 8, and a notable absence from the feature Race 9. The Rycroft barn (Tom) has produced a consistent body of work throughout today's card, and Border Song (POST 6) in Race 1 appears to be its best chance of the day.

Tim Rycroft operates separately from Tom Rycroft and enters Cousin Richie (POST 1) in Race 1, Fed Boy (POST 3) in Race 7, Tool Time (POST 10) in Race 8, and Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) in Race 9. The feature entry Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) at 2-1 is clearly Tim Rycroft's best hope of the day, and the barn being entrusted with the morning line favorite in the feature race is a significant vote of confidence in both the horse and the trainer's current form.

Gonzalo Anderson sends out Lord Of Battle (POST 2) in Race 2, Let's Go (POST 3) in Race 3, and Whatwomenwant (POST 2) in Race 7. The three-horse day for Anderson suggests a barn in peak mid-meet form, and Lord Of Battle (POST 2) in Race 2 is the premier offering.

Carson Frey is active with Thompson (POST 4) in Race 1, Just Like Lindsey (POST 4) in Race 3, and Holy Betty (POST 5) in Race 4. The Frey barn historically clusters at these mid-claiming levels and Thompson (POST 4) is the top offering.

Jim R Brown has Licorice (POST 3) in Race 5, Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) in Race 4, and Quarterback Dak (POST 9) in Race 9. Brown's best chance is Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) in Race 4.

Marvin Buffalo saddles Loveaboveandbeyond (POST 1) in Race 5 and Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) in Race 8. The dual-entry day suggests a hot barn, and Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) in Race 8 at 3-1 is the marquee entry.

Dino Condilenios enters Max Charisma (POST 3) in Race 4, All Run (POST 8) in Race 8, and Horatio (POST 4) in Race 9 — a strong three-race day for a barn that has been reliable at CTD.

Craig Robert Smith enters N Two O (POST 5) in Race 3, Whenicomearound (POST 6) in Race 4, and DREAMB — note that Dreamb (POST 6) in Race 5 is a Tom Rycroft entry, so Smith's Race 5 entry is actually Rose Of Texas (POST 4) — actually Smith's entry in Race 5 is listed separately from Rycroft's. Smith's best opportunity appears to be his Race 3 entry N Two O (POST 5) as a price horse.

Ron Grieves enters Derzkii (POST 5) in Race 1, Crown Of Cairo (POST 5) in Race 5, and Light Fast Feet (POST 1) in Race 6. The Grieves barn runs at multiple levels today and Light Fast Feet (POST 1) at 6-1 in Race 6 with Reyes is worth noting.

Rick Hedge saddles Thiscatsgotspeed (POST 7) in Race 1, Siempre Sonando (POST 1) in Race 3, Imtheproblemitsme (POST 2) in Race 4, and My Munnings Model (POST 10) in Race 9. The four-horse day for Hedge suggests a barn running at full capacity.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The most compelling single-race value on today's CTD card is Quarterback Dak (POST 9) at 6-1 in Race 9. Jim R Brown has been effective with multiple entries today, and Quarterback Dak (POST 9) represents a legitimate 6-1 overlay in the feature if Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) and White Mountain (POST 6) engage each other in a stretch battle. A WIN bet on Quarterback Dak (POST 9) at 6-1 alongside the standard exotic coverage is recommended.

For the Pick 4 spanning Races 6 through 9, the recommended structure is:

Race 6: Aintafraidtodream (POST 2), Just Scarlett (POST 6) Race 7: Jump The Queue (POST 5), Whatwomenwant (POST 2), St. Elmo (POST 7) Race 8: Deal Em (POST 6), Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11), All Run (POST 8) Race 9: Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8), White Mountain (POST 6), Quarterback Dak (POST 9)

A 2x3x3x3 ticket costs 54 combinations at $0.50 each, totaling $27.00, and provides solid coverage across all four legs.

For the Pick 3 spanning Races 7 through 9 — which represents the final sequence of the day — a focused ticket of Jump The Queue (POST 5) over Deal Em (POST 6) and Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) over Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) and White Mountain (POST 6) provides a clean $0.50 Pick 3 for $2.00 on the straight ticket with strong expected value.

The best exacta value on the card is Race 4, where Fivenofieldfive (POST 8) over Sauce Me A Slice (POST 1) should pay a price reflective of the outside post of the favorite, potentially offering a $15-$22 exacta payout at the windows.

The best trifecta investment on the card is Race 8, where the eleven-horse field with a compressed morning line creates significant opportunity. A $0.50 trifecta box of Deal Em (POST 6), Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11), All Run (POST 8), and Tool Time (POST 10) — six combinations at $0.50 totaling $3.00 — represents a strong value given the potential payout of a four-horse $0.50 box in an eleven-horse field at these morning line prices.

Single WIN bets of note: Border Song (POST 6) in Race 1 at 2-1, Above Average (POST 7) in Race 5 at 2-1, Ghostly Spitfire (POST 8) in Race 9 at 2-1. For bettors who prefer value at a price, Jump The Queue (POST 5) in Race 7 at 3-1, Jeff Fa Fa (POST 11) in Race 8 at 3-1, and White Mountain (POST 6) in Race 9 at 3-1 all represent morning line prices that carry legitimate chance of outrunning their odds given the connections involved.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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