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Fairmount Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 22, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%16%32%47%63%3%7%13%18%26%38%What we said — 3.4%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.0%What we said — 25.6%What we said — 38.3%What we saidWhat happened — 2.6%What happened — 7.0%What happened — 13.6%What happened — 21.7%What happened — 31.3%What happened — 51.1%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.4%2.6%
7%7.4%7.0%
13%12.5%13.6%
18%18.0%21.7%
26%25.6%31.3%
38%38.3%51.1%

Fairmount Park — Race Day Overview, September 22, 2026

Fairmount Park returns to action on Monday, September 22, 2026, presenting a ten-race card that features a blend of maiden, claiming, and optional claiming events spanning distances from six furlongs to just over a mile and an eighth on the main dirt track. The card opens at 2:30 p.m. local time and runs through a ten-race program that should wrap up in the early evening hours.

The news backdrop is meaningful for Illinois racing. As reported by TDN, Fairmount Park recently received an expanded 2027 racing calendar from the Illinois Racing Commission, a significant development given that Fairmount stands as Illinois' last operating Thoroughbred racetrack. The Hawthorne bankruptcy situation and the ongoing effort to resolve the Northern Illinois OTB question continue to swirl in the background, but for today's purposes, Fairmount is the only game in town for Illinois Thoroughbred fans, and the Monday card carries its usual blend of claiming horses and consistent local connections. The purse structure, ranging from $10,000 in the lower claiming events to $40,500 in the feature optional claiming route, reflects Fairmount's position as a mid-tier regional circuit where competitive claiming horses find steady work throughout the extended meet.

There are no reported major scratches or dramatic late changes to the card as of this writing, though bettors should confirm the final field at the windows before wagering. The Churchill Downs spill involving jockeys Torres, Garcia, and Rodriguez on Saturday does not directly affect today's Fairmount card, as none of those riders are listed on this program.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for Collinsville, Illinois, in the metropolitan St. Louis area surrounding Fairmount Park on September 22, 2026, calls for partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s at post time for the early races, cooling slightly as the card progresses into the evening. No significant precipitation is anticipated during race hours, though a slight chance of light showers exists in the late afternoon. Winds are expected to be light and variable, generally out of the southwest at five to ten miles per hour, which will have minimal impact on pace dynamics.

The track surface is expected to be listed as fast or good given recent weather patterns in the region during mid-September. If any light rain does arrive ahead of the card, the surface could be listed as good or sloppy, which would significantly alter the pace picture, particularly in the sprint races where early speed horses can dominate a wet, sealed track.

Fairmount's main track is a one-mile oval with a tight configuration that tends to play fair to slightly favoring early pace in sprint distances. In route events at the 1,830-foot and 1,870-foot distances, the bias toward early speed is somewhat neutralized by the longer run to the first call, though horses that can settle in good position on the first turn tend to have a structural advantage.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Fairmount Park plays with a noted early speed and inside bias in sprint races under normal conditions. The track's configuration, with a relatively short run from the gates to the first turn in sprint races, means that horses breaking from the inside and middle posts who can establish early position have a measurable advantage. The rail and posts one through four in sprints have historically produced above-average win rates at Fairmount, and this Monday's card should not deviate significantly from that pattern on a fast track.

In the route races — specifically Races 2, 6, and 8, which are run at distances of 1,830 and 1,870 feet — the bias picture is more neutral. Horses breaking from outside posts in routes have more time to find their spot before the first turn, and closers have a slightly better chance to operate off a moderate pace scenario. Even so, positional horses that can save ground on the first turn and avoid traffic in the backstretch are best positioned.

In the maiden and lower-level claiming sprints, early speed should be respected throughout the card. Horses that show ability to break alertly and get to the front or near the front in the first quarter mile will have a structural advantage under today's expected fast track conditions. When evaluating exacta and trifecta combinations, weighting inside posts and demonstrated early pace figures is the prudent approach across the sprint races on this card.

RACE 1 — Post 2:30 — 1320f | D | M | Md 6250 | BUN | Purse $10,500

This opening maiden event at the $6,250 maiden claiming level goes six and a half furlongs on the main track. Maiden claiming races at this price point at Fairmount represent the bottom of the barrel in terms of class, and fields at this level frequently contain horses with significant physical or form issues. The morning line on this race is dominated by two horses — RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) at odds-on and Tap The Prize (POST 7) at 4-1 — with the rest of the field available at 5-1 or longer. This race projects as a two-horse affair between those two morning line favorites.

Pace Analysis

RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) figures to be a prominent factor near the front from the start given his inside post and odds-on favoritism, suggesting speed on paper or in morning works. Tap The Prize (POST 7) breaking from the seven-hole will need to overcome a slight post disadvantage in a sprint but has the morning line backing that suggests quality. Incorporated (POST 1) from the rail for trainer Omar Razvi and jockey Harold Joseph Ortega will likely try to establish early position on the front end. The pace scenario could set up as a two-horse speed battle between RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) and Incorporated (POST 1), which could set up the closers if those two horses duel it out through the early fractions.

Key Contenders

RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) is the morning line favorite at even money and represents trainer Heather Irion, with Felix Vasquez Jr. aboard. At the maiden $6,250 level, an odds-on favorite must be respected, and the horse's low odds suggest a consistent or well-regarded workout tab going into this spot. At Fairmount, odds-on morning line favorites in maiden claiming events at this level win at a healthy clip, and RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) figures to be on or near the pace from a favorable middle post. The inside posts in a six and a half furlong sprint here should allow this horse to get a clean trip from post three.

Tap The Prize (POST 7) at 4-1 for trainer Tony Blea Jr. and jockey Emmanuel Giles represents the most significant threat to the favorite. At the morning line, the 4-1 price suggests this horse has genuine ability or recent form that makes the connections confident. Giles is an active Fairmount rider who knows the track well, and Blea has operated at this circuit effectively. Tap The Prize (POST 7) will need to overcome the seven post but at six and a half furlongs, there is enough time to find a comfortable spot two or three wide before the first turn.

Secondary Choices

Incorporated (POST 1) at 5-1 for trainer Omar Razvi and jockey Harold Joseph Ortega draws the rail, which is a double-edged sword at Fairmount. The inside post in a sprint can produce a ground-saving trip, but it also exposes a horse to traffic if they do not break sharply. Incorporated (POST 1) could make the front or press the pace and figure prominently late if the even-money favorite tires.

Last Call Geno (POST 2) at 10-1 for trainer Steve Manley and jockey Brody Martinez is a moderate price that could indicate some recent form. Manley is a competitive conditioner at Fairmount and at 10-1 on the morning line, Last Call Geno (POST 2) may offer some trifecta value.

Dan B (POST 8) at 15-1 for trainer Mike Durham and jockey Reynier Arrieta breaks from the outside in an eight-horse field. Durham and Arrieta form a capable pairing at this level, and Dan B (POST 8) could come from off the pace if a genuine speed duel develops early.

Longshots

Allkindsoftrouble (POST 4) at 20-1 for trainer Duane Wells and jockey A.O. Stanley, American Blend (POST 5) at 30-1 for trainer Duane Wells and jockey Alvin Ortiz, and Stormystormynight (POST 6) at 30-1 for trainer Jessica Jelinski and jockey Javier Tavares are deep longshots who would need significant trouble or a collapse from the favorites to factor. Wells running two horses in this race — Allkindsoftrouble (POST 4) and American Blend (POST 5) — is worth noting as a barn that has a clear entry in the field, though neither is expected to compete with the top two on current morning line assessments. Stormystormynight (POST 6) is the least regarded runner in the field on the morning line and appears to be here as a rabbit or a horse filling out the field.

Betting Strategy

This is a race to use RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) on top with Tap The Prize (POST 7) in the secondary position for win, exacta, and trifecta purposes. A straight win bet on RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) is difficult to recommend at even money in a maiden claiming event at this level, as upsets are always possible. The better approach is to construct a small exacta box between RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) and Tap The Prize (POST 7) while adding Incorporated (POST 1) to the trifecta underneath. The $1 exacta box of RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) and Tap The Prize (POST 7) is the recommended primary play.

Selections

Win: RICOCHET RICK (POST 3) Place: Tap The Prize (POST 7) Show: Incorporated (POST 1)

RACE 2 — Post 2:55 — 1830f | D | C | Clm 4000n2y | BUM | Purse $10,000

The second race is a mile and an eighth route event at the $4,000 claiming level restricted to horses that have not won two races in a given year. This is a nine-horse field and one of the deeper fields on the card numerically. The morning line features Izzy's Monster (POST 7) as the clear favorite at 1-1, with What's Crackin (POST 5) at 2-1 as the second choice.

Pace Analysis

At a mile and an eighth on the Fairmount dirt, pace dynamics favor horses that can settle in the first quarter and then advance on the far turn. The 1,830-foot distance at this track involves the entire oval plus an additional run past the finish line before turning for the backstretch, creating a legitimate route test. What's Crackin (POST 5) and Izzy's Monster (POST 7) figure to be the primary pace scenario setters, and the question is whether one or both will try to secure early position or whether they will be rated. Hot Dame (POST 1) from the rail for trainer Harry Lynch could also establish early position, which would mean a contested pace.

Key Contenders

Izzy's Monster (POST 7) at even money for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez and jockey Johanis Aranguren is the morning line choice. Rodriguez has been competitive at Fairmount, and Izzy's Monster (POST 7) draws post seven in a nine-horse route, which is a workable position. At 1-1, the horse demands respect, but even-money favorites in $4,000 claiming routes at a regional circuit are far from certainties. Aranguren is a live rider on the Fairmount circuit and should be able to place Izzy's Monster (POST 7) in a forward position from the post.

What's Crackin (POST 5) at 2-1 for trainer Harry Lynch and jockey Javier Tavares is the other standout. Lynch running two horses in this field — What's Crackin (POST 5) at 2-1 and Hot Dame (POST 1) at 12-1 — suggests the stable's primary hope is What's Crackin (POST 5), with Hot Dame (POST 1) as a secondary runner. Tavares is an active Fairmount jockey, and post five in a nine-horse field at this distance is a favorable draw. If What's Crackin (POST 5) can settle in good position in the early stages and advance into the stretch, the 2-1 morning line could understate the horse's chances.

Secondary Choices

Retail Therapy (POST 8) at 5-1 for trainer James M. Watkins and jockey Alexander Bendezu is worth a look in the exotics. Bendezu is one of the more capable riders on the Fairmount circuit, and Retail Therapy (POST 8) at this price could offer value if the top two are overbet. A horse that can close from off the pace in a route at this level could find a clear lane in the stretch.

Wicked Sky (POST 6) at 8-1 for trainer John Wainwright and jockey T. Wales is a moderate price that could figure in the trifecta if the pace collapses. Wales is a working rider at Fairmount who can hold a horse together through a long route.

Deal'em And Weep (POST 2) at 9-1 for trainer Blanca Candelas and jockey Luis H. Colon offers some trifecta appeal at a longer price. Candelas is a lesser-known trainer at this circuit, but at $4,000 claiming with a 9-1 morning line, there may be some price value here.

Longshots

Hot Dame (POST 1) at 12-1 for trainer Harry Lynch and jockey Victor Lara represents the Lynch stable's second string. Running two in the same race at these low claiming levels sometimes reflects a stable hedging its bets. Hot Dame (POST 1) from the rail could grab the early lead and be difficult to catch if the pace is slow, making this horse a possible longshot winner rather than simply a trifecta fill.

Scrapbook (POST 3) at 20-1 for trainer Fernando Bahena and jockey Frank Reyes is a deep longshot. Grazen Gator (POST 4) at 30-1 for trainer Ricardo Jaime and jockey Emmanuel Giles and Heavenly Hash (POST 9) at 30-1 for trainer Charles Davis Jr. and jockey Brody Martinez are the longest prices in the field and should be used sparingly if at all, perhaps only in large super hi-five type wagers where coverage is needed.

Betting Strategy

The race sets up as a two-horse race between Izzy's Monster (POST 7) and What's Crackin (POST 5), with Retail Therapy (POST 8) as the prime upset candidate. Betting What's Crackin (POST 5) to win at 2-1 is defensible given the Lynch stable's strong representation and Tavares in the irons. An exacta of What's Crackin (POST 5) over Izzy's Monster (POST 7) returns a modest price, but the reverse is also worth playing. A trifecta box of What's Crackin (POST 5), Izzy's Monster (POST 7), and Retail Therapy (POST 8) should be the primary exotic play.

Selections

Win: What's Crackin (POST 5) Place: Izzy's Monster (POST 7) Show: Retail Therapy (POST 8)

RACE 3 — Post 3:20 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 15000n2l | BUM | Purse $13,500

Race three is a six and a half furlong sprint at the $15,000 claiming level restricted to horses that have not won two lifetime races. This is one of the more competitively priced races early on the card, with three horses sharing co-favoritism at 2-1 on the morning line: Code Of Conduct (POST 1), Sweet Skylar (POST 5), and Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6). The even pricing reflects genuine uncertainty among handicappers about which of these three will emerge on top.

Pace Analysis

With three 2-1 favorites in a seven-horse field, the pace question becomes critical. Code Of Conduct (POST 1) from the rail may be inclined toward early speed given the inside post, while Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) and Sweet Skylar (POST 5) figure as pressing or stalking types. If Code Of Conduct (POST 1) goes to the front unchallenged, the race could become a wire-to-wire affair. If multiple horses contest the pace, the closers — particularly Lucky Monica (POST 7) at 12-1 — could benefit.

Key Contenders

Code Of Conduct (POST 1) at 2-1 for trainer Pat Clay and jockey Alexander Bendezu breaks from the rail in a seven-horse sprint. Clay is one of the more successful trainers at Fairmount this meet, and pairing Code Of Conduct (POST 1) with Bendezu, who is one of the leading riders at this circuit, represents a powerful combination. The rail draw in a six and a half furlong sprint is a genuine asset if this horse can break cleanly and establish inside position before the first turn.

Sweet Skylar (POST 5) at 2-1 for trainer Scott Becker and jockey Victor Santiago. Becker has multiple horses on today's card, and entering two in this same race — Sweet Skylar (POST 5) and Lucky Monica (POST 7) — is a notable angle. Becker's primary runner based on the morning line is Sweet Skylar (POST 5). Santiago is a capable rider who can rate horses in sprint situations, and post five is a favorable position in a seven-horse field.

Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) at 2-1 for trainer Harry Lynch and jockey Victor Lara rounds out the co-favorite trio. Lynch has several horses on today's card and is clearly one of the more active Fairmount trainers on this program. Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) from post six in a seven-horse field has a workable draw, and Lara's experience at the track is an asset. Lynch's horses have shown competitiveness throughout the day's card, and Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) should be respected.

Secondary Choices

Lucky Monica (POST 7) at 12-1 for trainer Scott Becker and jockey Reynier Arrieta is the second Becker runner and a legitimate closer in this race. Arrieta is one of the leading jockeys at Fairmount, and if the three favorites tangle in a contested early pace, Lucky Monica (POST 7) could be the horse that comes from off the pace to steal the show. At 12-1, this horse represents genuine exotic wagering value and should be included in all trifecta and superfecta combinations.

True Effect (POST 4) at 15-1 for trainer Jada K. Schlenk and jockey Harold Joseph Ortega offers a longer price in a wide-open contest. At this level and in a race where three horses share favoritism, 15-1 on a horse that simply needs the co-favorites to underperform is attractive for trifecta purposes.

Longshots

Fear The Queen (POST 2) at 20-1 for trainer Ted Randazzo and jockey Johanis Aranguren and Tizswiftysmusic (POST 3) at 20-1 for trainer Maximino Quinonez and jockey Javier Tavares are deep longshots. Both horses would need significant trouble in running or an unexpected collapse from the favorites to reach the board. Include them only in super hi-five or wide trifecta plays for coverage.

Betting Strategy

With three 2-1 co-favorites, the win pool will be compressed regardless of who crosses the wire first, making exotic wagering the primary target. A trifecta box using Code Of Conduct (POST 1), Sweet Skylar (POST 5), and Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) will not return spectacular value given their shared morning line odds. The better play is to include Lucky Monica (POST 7) in the trifecta structure with two of the three favorites, as the closer could easily outrun its 12-1 morning line if a genuine speed battle develops. A trifecta key of Lucky Monica (POST 7) underneath any two of the three 2-1 choices offers real value potential.

Selections

Win: Code Of Conduct (POST 1) Place: Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) Show: Lucky Monica (POST 7)

RACE 4 — Post 3:45 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 10000n1x | BUM | Purse $39,000

Race four is a six and a half furlong optional claiming sprint for older horses restricted to non-winners of one race at a specific level, carrying the largest purse of the first half of the card at $39,000. This is a six-horse field featuring a fascinating angle: trainer Scott Becker enters two horses — Ghaaleb's City (POST 5) and Ghaly Posse (POST 6) — both at 2-1, creating a de facto stable entry situation. The morning line co-favorite is Julynne (POST 4) at 2-1, making this essentially a three-way race at even odds on the morning line.

Pace Analysis

In a six-horse sprint, post position draws become even more critical. Julynne (POST 4) from post four has a clean draw, while the two Becker runners occupy adjacent posts five and six, which creates an interesting dynamic. If both Becker horses go for early position, they could impede each other. Wildcat Bobbie (POST 1) from the rail for trainer Arthur A. Coontz and jockey Luis H. Colon may try to get to the front early and control the pace. Arose For Lyla (POST 2) at 7-1 and Cantoo (POST 3) at 15-1 fill in the middle of the field. The pace projects as competitive, with multiple horses capable of pressing early and the race likely to be decided in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Julynne (POST 4) at 2-1 for trainer Ralph A. Martinez and jockey Brody Martinez represents a strong trainer-jockey combination. The Martinez barn at Fairmount has produced multiple horses on today's card, and Julynne (POST 4) from post four in a six-horse field is well positioned. Brody Martinez is one of the top jockeys at this circuit, and the 2-1 morning line for a horse in an optional claimer at this purse level suggests genuine ability. This is the horse to beat based on the combination of tactical post position, jockey quality, and trainer form.

Ghaaleb's City (POST 5) at 2-1 for trainer Scott Becker and jockey Victor Santiago and Ghaly Posse (POST 6) at 2-1 for trainer Scott Becker and jockey Alexander Bendezu represent the Becker barn's two-pronged attack. When a trainer enters two horses in the same race at the same odds, it typically means the barn is genuinely confident in both and is hedging. Bendezu riding Ghaly Posse (POST 6) is notable because Bendezu has been one of the circuit's more active riders. Santiago on Ghaaleb's City (POST 5) is equally capable. The Becker barn's collective 2-1 price means that if either wins, the morning line was essentially a coin flip between all three top choices.

Secondary Choices

Arose For Lyla (POST 2) at 7-1 for trainer Edward Essenpreis and jockey Reynier Arrieta represents a competitive price in a short field. Arrieta is one of the leading riders at Fairmount, and Essenpreis is a trainer with multiple runners on today's card, suggesting a barn in good form. From post two, Arose For Lyla (POST 2) can find a comfortable stalking position and launch a stretch run if the pace is genuine.

Wildcat Bobbie (POST 1) at 8-1 for trainer Arthur A. Coontz and jockey Luis H. Colon breaks from the rail. In a six-horse sprint, the rail draw can be advantageous if the horse breaks alertly. Colon is a useful rider and Wildcat Bobbie (POST 1) at 8-1 offers some value if the even-money trio disappoints.

Longshots

Cantoo (POST 3) at 15-1 for trainer John Wainwright and jockey Johanis Aranguren is the longest morning line price in the field. In a six-horse race where three horses share 2-1 favoritism, Cantoo (POST 3) at 15-1 is effectively a throwout unless there is specific evidence of significant improvement or a hot trainer angle.

Betting Strategy

The most intriguing wagering angle in this race is betting against the Becker one-two, treating Julynne (POST 4) as the primary single and constructing exactas of Julynne (POST 4) over both Becker horses and Arose For Lyla (POST 2). The $2 exacta of Julynne (POST 4) over Ghaaleb's City (POST 5) or Ghaly Posse (POST 6) will not return a fortune given the shared morning line odds, but a Julynne (POST 4) over Arose For Lyla (POST 2) exacta offers genuine value at a potential $20-plus return. Use Julynne (POST 4) as the key horse in all multi-race wagers.

Selections

Win: Julynne (POST 4) Place: Ghaly Posse (POST 6) Show: Arose For Lyla (POST 2)

RACE 5 — Post 4:10 — 1320f | D | CO | OClm 25000 | BUN | Purse $30,000

Race five is the first of two consecutive optional claiming sprints, this one at the $25,000 level going six and a half furlongs. Six horses contest this event, and the morning line features a pair of co-favorites at 2-1: Honor Point (POST 2) and More Than Destiny (POST 4). Jack Sixpack (POST 1) is the third choice at 3-1, and Sweet La Crema (POST 3) is the fourth choice at 4-1.

Pace Analysis

At $25,000 optional claiming level, this is one of the better quality sprint races on the Fairmount card. Jack Sixpack (POST 1) from the rail for trainer Pat Clay could be an early pace factor, and with Honor Point (POST 2) pressing from post two, the race could develop into a speed duel through the early fractions. More Than Destiny (POST 4) at 2-1 may be more of a stalker or closer type, positioned to take advantage if the two inside horses burn each other up. Sweet La Crema (POST 3) at 4-1 is sandwiched between the speed and the closers and should be able to find a position on the first turn.

Key Contenders

Honor Point (POST 2) at 2-1 for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez and jockey Alexander Bendezu. Rodriguez has multiple horses on today's card, and Honor Point (POST 2) is clearly one of the barn's top prospects. Bendezu riding Honor Point (POST 2) at $25,000 optional claiming level suggests a genuine effort from a quality handler. Post two in a six-horse sprint allows the horse to press the pace or sit just off the leader in a pocket position, which is often ideal at Fairmount.

More Than Destiny (POST 4) at 2-1 for trainer Pat Clay and jockey Alvin Ortiz is Clay's top horse in this race, as the stable also enters Jack Sixpack (POST 1) at 3-1. Clay running two horses at the $25,000 level on the same card suggests confidence in the barn's current form. More Than Destiny (POST 4) from post four is well drawn in a six-horse field, and Ortiz is a capable rider who can position a horse efficiently.

Jack Sixpack (POST 1) at 3-1 for trainer Pat Clay and jockey A.O. Stanley breaks from the inside rail. As the second Clay runner, Jack Sixpack (POST 1) could be the rabbit that sets the pace for More Than Destiny (POST 4), though at 3-1 on the morning line, Clay clearly views this horse as a legitimate contender in its own right. A wire-to-wire performance is possible if Jack Sixpack (POST 1) gets a soft pace.

Secondary Choices

Sweet La Crema (POST 3) at 4-1 for trainer Adrian M. Salazar and jockey Victor Lara is the primary overlay candidate in this field. At 4-1 with a favorable middle post in a six-horse field, Sweet La Crema (POST 3) could represent the best value on the board depending on how the money flows at the windows. Lara is a capable Fairmount rider and Salazar is a trainer worth noting.

Cool Memory (POST 5) at 12-1 for trainer Mike Durham and jockey Javier Diego is a significant longshot step down from the favorites. Durham trains effectively at this level, and Cool Memory (POST 5) at 12-1 in a six-horse optional claimer could offer trifecta value if the pace scenario collapses the top three horses.

Longshots

Adios Kid (POST 6) at 20-1 for trainer Ben DeLong and jockey Reynier Arrieta is the longest price in the field. In a six-horse sprint, a 20-1 morning line suggests this horse has significant class or form issues relative to the rest of the field. Arrieta is a quality rider, but the price reflects genuine competitive disadvantage. Adios Kid (POST 6) is a deep exotics use only.

Betting Strategy

This is a race where the Clay stable's dual entry creates an interesting dynamic. If you believe Clay runs horses cooperatively and that Jack Sixpack (POST 1) is setting the pace for More Than Destiny (POST 4), then fading Jack Sixpack (POST 1) late and keying More Than Destiny (POST 4) in exactas makes sense. However, Honor Point (POST 2) with Bendezu in the saddle is the top selection based on the combination of rider quality and trainer form. An exacta box of Honor Point (POST 2) and More Than Destiny (POST 4) is the primary play, with Sweet La Crema (POST 3) added to the trifecta for value.

Selections

Win: Honor Point (POST 2) Place: More Than Destiny (POST 4) Show: Sweet La Crema (POST 3)

RACE 6 — Post 4:35 — 1830f | D | AO | OClm 20000n4l | BUN | Purse $40,500

Race six is the featured event on the card, an optional claiming route at the $20,000 level restricted to non-winners of four lifetime races. The purse of $40,500 is the richest on the card and draws an eight-horse field. Illini Red (POST 3) is the dominant morning line favorite at 1-1, with the second choice Tahoe Run (POST 7) at 7-1 — a significant gap that suggests Illini Red (POST 3) is the clear class of this field on paper.

Pace Analysis

At a mile and an eighth distance, pace setup is critical. Illini Red (POST 3) as the odds-on favorite figures to be well positioned early, potentially pressing or stalking the pace. Onthewayjimmy (POST 1) from the rail for trainer Scott Becker might try to establish early position, and Dream Gold (POST 4) at 6-1 could also be a pace factor from post four. If Illini Red (POST 3) can travel comfortably in a second or third position through the first half mile and avoid traffic at the first turn, this horse is very well positioned to dominate from the top of the stretch.

Key Contenders

Illini Red (POST 3) at 1-1 for trainer Steve Manley and jockey Johanis Aranguren is the clear morning line standout. Manley is one of the more active trainers at Fairmount, and entering Illini Red (POST 3) at even money in the featured race of the day suggests real confidence. Aranguren has been riding well at this circuit, and from post three in an eight-horse route, this horse can get an ideal trip on the first turn. At 1-1, a straight win bet is difficult to recommend for value purposes, but Illini Red (POST 3) is clearly the horse to beat and should be used on top of all exotic wagers.

Tahoe Run (POST 7) at 7-1 for trainer James M. Watkins and jockey J.E. Felix is the morning line's second choice and a significant price compared to the favorite. Tahoe Run (POST 7) from the seven post in an eight-horse route has room to find its spot on the first turn, and if this horse can close from off the pace while Illini Red (POST 3) is contested, there could be a genuine upset available at 7-1. Watkins has had runners on this card, suggesting an active and engaged barn.

Secondary Choices

Dream Gold (POST 4) at 6-1 for trainer Steve Fridley and jockey Cory Orm is a route runner from post four that figures to be well positioned early. At 6-1, Dream Gold (POST 4) offers legitimate exotic value if Illini Red (POST 3) is beaten. Orm is a working rider at Fairmount who knows how to navigate the one-mile oval.

Irish Spark (POST 6) at 9-1 for trainer Edward Essenpreis and jockey Reynier Arrieta is another Essenpreis runner at a comfortable price. Arrieta is one of the more reliable riders on the circuit, and Irish Spark (POST 6) could be the closer in this field who benefits if the pace is genuine.

Onthewayjimmy (POST 1) at 8-1 for trainer Scott Becker and jockey Alexander Bendezu breaks from the rail in this route. The Becker-Bendezu combination is effective, and Onthewayjimmy (POST 1) at 8-1 from the inside could establish early position and prove difficult to catch if the pace is slow.

Longshots

Grayhop (POST 8) at 10-1 for trainer Lori Plasters and jockey Victor Santiago, Even The Wind (POST 5) at 12-1 for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez and jockey Brody Martinez, and Nella (POST 2) at 15-1 for trainer Edward Essenpreis and jockey Victor Lara round out the field. Nella (POST 2) at 15-1 as a second Essenpreis runner alongside Irish Spark (POST 6) suggests the barn's primary hope is Irish Spark (POST 6). Even The Wind (POST 5) and Grayhop (POST 8) are trifecta fillers at best.

Betting Strategy

With Illini Red (POST 3) at 1-1, the win bet is poor value but the horse must be keyed on top of all exactas and trifectas. A small win bet on Illini Red (POST 3) is acceptable for bettors who need the race result to anchor a sequence wager. The better play is an exacta of Illini Red (POST 3) over Tahoe Run (POST 7) and Dream Gold (POST 4), constructing a $2 exacta with Illini Red (POST 3) on top to each of the three secondary choices. A trifecta key of Illini Red (POST 3) over Tahoe Run (POST 7) and Dream Gold (POST 4) over the field is the recommended primary exotic.

Selections

Win: Illini Red (POST 3) Place: Tahoe Run (POST 7) Show: Dream Gold (POST 4)

RACE 7 — Post 5:00 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 5000n3l | BUN | Purse $10,400

Race seven goes six furlongs — the shortest distance on the card — at the $5,000 claiming level for horses that have not won three lifetime races. Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) is the dominant morning line favorite at even money for trainer Ralph A. Martinez and jockey Brody Martinez. This nine-horse field is one of the larger fields on the card, and the six-furlong distance creates a tight initial turn scenario that will benefit early speed horses breaking from inside posts.

Pace Analysis

In a nine-horse field going six furlongs at Fairmount, the run to the first turn is extremely short. Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) from post four figures to be a primary early pace force, and Stunning Bruno (POST 1), Frosted Warrior (POST 2), and After My Brother (POST 3) all break from inside posts that give them a natural advantage in getting to the front. The pace in nine-horse six-furlong events at Fairmount can be frenetic in the early stages, and closers from outside posts have a harder time overcoming traffic at the shorter distance. Horses breaking from posts six through nine — Gibran (POST 6), Nathaniel's Hope (POST 7), Awesome Drew (POST 8), and Last Moon (POST 9) — will need to find clear racing room.

Key Contenders

Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) at even money for trainer Ralph A. Martinez and jockey Brody Martinez is the clear morning line choice. The Ralph A. Martinez and Brody Martinez trainer-jockey combination has been prominent throughout today's card, with multiple entries across several races. At even money in a $5,000 claiming sprint, Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) figures to be at or near the pace from the outset. Post four in a nine-horse six-furlong field is a workable draw that allows the horse to find position before the first turn. Martinez and Martinez connecting in this spot would not be a surprise.

Averyz Day (POST 5) at 6-1 for trainer Harry Lynch and jockey Victor Lara is the likely main challenger. Lynch has been active throughout today's program with multiple runners, and Averyz Day (POST 5) at 6-1 offers the best value among the horses capable of challenging the favorite. Post five in a nine-horse sprint is a slightly wide draw but Lara should be able to find a stalking position behind the early leaders.

Secondary Choices

Last Moon (POST 9) at 7-1 for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez and jockey Alexander Bendezu is the most interesting secondary choice. Bendezu is one of the top riders at Fairmount, and Last Moon (POST 9) from the nine post in a six-furlong sprint will need a clean break and a wide trip to factor. However, if the inside horses tangle and create traffic, Last Moon (POST 9) could come from outside and benefit from a clear path in the stretch.

Gibran (POST 6) at 9-1 for trainer Ralph A. Martinez and jockey Alvin Ortiz is the second Martinez barn runner in this field. With Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) as the barn's primary horse, Gibran (POST 6) at 9-1 may be a legitimate secondary runner rather than a rabbit. Ortiz is a capable rider and Gibran (POST 6) could fill in trifecta positions.

Longshots

Stunning Bruno (POST 1) at 30-1 for trainer Mark W. Anderson and jockey Victor Santiago, Frosted Warrior (POST 2) at 20-1 for trainer Terry Burdess and jockey J.E. Felix, After My Brother (POST 3) at 30-1 for trainer Gene J. Sandrowski and jockey Johanis Aranguren, Nathaniel's Hope (POST 7) at 20-1 for trainer Joel Martinez and jockey Javier Tavares, and Awesome Drew (POST 8) at 30-1 for trainer Shane Childers and jockey Harold Joseph Ortega are all deep longshots. At these prices in a $5,000 claiming race, these horses are extreme trifecta fillers at best. Frosted Warrior (POST 2) and Nathaniel's Hope (POST 7) at 20-1 might be the slightly more compelling of the group for superfecta coverage.

Betting Strategy

Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) at even money in a nine-horse field at $5,000 claiming is not attractive as a straight win bet. The better approach is to use Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) on top in exactas with Averyz Day (POST 5), Last Moon (POST 9), and Gibran (POST 6) underneath. A trifecta key of Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) on top over combinations of Averyz Day (POST 5), Last Moon (POST 9), and Gibran (POST 6) in second and third positions is the recommended exotic structure.

Selections

Win: Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) Place: Averyz Day (POST 5) Show: Last Moon (POST 9)

RACE 8 — Post 5:25 — 1870f | D | AO | OClm 15000n1x | BUN | Purse $19,000

The finale is a mile and an eighth and a few feet route at the $15,000 optional claiming level for non-winners of one race at that specific class level. This is a ten-horse field — the largest on the card — and features a fascinating matchup with Category Ten (POST 5) and Sound Of Victory (POST 1) and Camp Daddy (POST 2) clustered at 3-1 and 4-1 on the morning line. Jack Sprat (POST 3) at 5-1 rounds out the primary wagering interests.

Pace Analysis

In a ten-horse route at Fairmount going a mile and an eighth, there is room for several pace scenarios to develop. Sound Of Victory (POST 1) from the rail figures to be an early runner, while Camp Daddy (POST 2) from post two and Jack Sprat (POST 3) from post three are in excellent position to stalk or press. Category Ten (POST 5) at 3-1 from post five may be more of a closer or pace-presser. With ten horses in the field, traffic can develop at the first turn and the half mile call. Horses that can find clean air in the early stages and position themselves on the rail or just off it through the first turn will be best placed for the long drive to the wire.

Key Contenders

Category Ten (POST 5) at 3-1 for trainer Marvel Straub and jockey Johanis Aranguren is the morning line top choice. Straub also enters Wicked Gus (POST 7) at 20-1, suggesting the barn's primary hope is Category Ten (POST 5). Aranguren has been active on today's card and has the experience to navigate a ten-horse route field. Post five in a ten-horse field is a manageable draw at this distance. At 3-1, Category Ten (POST 5) offers reasonable value in a competitive route field.

Sound Of Victory (POST 1) at 4-1 for trainer Armando Hernandez and jockey Frank Reyes breaks from the inside rail. In a route race, the rail can be either a blessing or a curse depending on how the race develops. Sound Of Victory (POST 1) could be on the lead or in a cozy rail position early, saving ground through the entire race. Reyes is a working rider at Fairmount who can take advantage of an inside trip.

Camp Daddy (POST 2) at 4-1 for trainer Steve Manley and jockey Victor Lara is another prime candidate. Manley has had a strong card today with Illini Red (POST 3) in Race 6, and Camp Daddy (POST 2) appears to be the barn's primary closer for this final event. Lara is a reliable rider and post two in a ten-horse route is among the better draws in the field.

Secondary Choices

Jack Sprat (POST 3) at 5-1 for trainer Edward Essenpreis and jockey Reynier Arrieta completes the Essenpreis barn's extensive participation on today's card. Jack Sprat (POST 3) at 5-1 with Arrieta from post three is a competitive price in this race, and the Essenpreis-Arrieta combination has been a consistent source of exotic value throughout this meet. Post three in a ten-horse route gives this horse a favorable rail-adjacent draw.

Zee Fire (POST 9) at 9-1 for trainer Maximino Quinonez and jockey Alexander Bendezu is an intriguing price from a wide post. Bendezu is clearly one of the busiest and most capable riders on today's card, and at 9-1 in a ten-horse field, Zee Fire (POST 9) could represent the best value among the secondary choices. From post nine, this horse will need to navigate wide early but Bendezu's experience should mitigate some of that disadvantage.

Personal Jet (POST 10) at 10-1 for trainer Heather Irion and jockey T. Wales draws the outside post in a ten-horse field. The ten post in a route at Fairmount is a significant disadvantage, as the horse will likely be very wide on the first turn. Personal Jet (POST 10) is a trifecta fill rather than a primary wagering interest.

Longshots

Double Thunder (POST 4) at 12-1 for trainer Terry R. Young and jockey Brody Martinez, Gun It And Run It (POST 6) at 30-1 for trainer Robert Pompell and jockey Alvin Ortiz, Wicked Gus (POST 7) at 20-1 for trainer Marvel Straub and jockey Victor Santiago, and Beyond Best (POST 8) at 15-1 for trainer Mike Durham and jockey J.E. Felix round out the field. Double Thunder (POST 4) at 12-1 with Brody Martinez is the most interesting of this group given the rider quality. Beyond Best (POST 8) at 15-1 for Durham and Felix is a moderate price closer that could factor in superfectas if the pace collapses. Gun It And Run It (POST 6) and Wicked Gus (POST 7) are deep fill horses.

Betting Strategy

The finale offers genuine wagering opportunity with four horses between 3-1 and 5-1 on the morning line. Category Ten (POST 5) is the top selection based on morning line and trainer form, but the inside horses Sound Of Victory (POST 1) and Camp Daddy (POST 2) are very live at 4-1. A trifecta box of Category Ten (POST 5), Sound Of Victory (POST 1), Camp Daddy (POST 2), and Jack Sprat (POST 3) for $24 is the recommended play. Adding Zee Fire (POST 9) to a $1 superfecta wheel underneath these four horses provides coverage for an upset at a price that would return meaningful value.

Selections

Win: Category Ten (POST 5) Place: Camp Daddy (POST 2) Show: Jack Sprat (POST 3)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Alexander Bendezu is clearly the most in-demand rider on today's card, appearing in six of the ten races: Code Of Conduct (POST 1) in Race 3, Ghaly Posse (POST 6) in Race 4, Honor Point (POST 2) in Race 5, Onthewayjimmy (POST 1) in Race 6, Last Moon (POST 9) in Race 7, and Zee Fire (POST 9) in Race 8. This volume of mounts from quality trainers — including Scott Becker, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Pat Clay — suggests Bendezu is currently the leading jockey at this Fairmount meet or very near the top. Bettors should note that when a jockey of this caliber accepts this many mounts in a single card, the barn connections have genuine confidence in the rider's ability to navigate a busy and physically demanding afternoon.

Reynier Arrieta is another high-volume rider, with mounts in Race 1 on Dan B (POST 8), Race 4 on Arose For Lyla (POST 2), Race 6 on Irish Spark (POST 6), Race 7 on Lucky Monica (POST 7), and Race 8 on Jack Sprat (POST 3). Arrieta's connection to trainer Edward Essenpreis is particularly noteworthy, as Essenpreis uses Arrieta exclusively on multiple horses throughout the card, indicating a strong working relationship. When a trainer-jockey partnership books this many mounts on a single card, it is often a sign of mutual confidence and current form.

Brody Martinez, jockey for trainer Ralph A. Martinez on Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) in Race 7 and Julynne (POST 4) in Race 4, represents a trainer-jockey combination worth watching throughout the day. The same-surname connection often reflects a family barn, and family operations at regional circuits frequently show loyalty and strong communication between the horse's connections.

Johanis Aranguren is the choice rider for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez on several occasions and also handles Illini Red (POST 3) in the feature Race 6 for trainer Steve Manley. Aranguren's presence aboard the even-money feature race favorite underscores this rider's current standing at Fairmount.

Victor Lara rides for multiple trainers including Harry Lynch, Adrian M. Salazar, and Steve Manley throughout the card, with mounts in Races 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 8. Like Bendezu, Lara's heavy workload reflects his current standing among the Fairmount colony.

Javier Tavares has a lighter book but rides for active trainers Jessica Jelinski and Harry Lynch, with assignments including Stormystormynight (POST 6) in Race 1, What's Crackin (POST 5) in Race 2, and Tizswiftysmusic (POST 3) in Race 3. Tavares on the Lynch barn's primary runner in Race 2 is notable given Lynch's multiple entries on the card.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Scott Becker is the busiest trainer on today's card, with entries in five of the ten races. Becker saddles Sweet Skylar (POST 5) and Lucky Monica (POST 7) in Race 3, Ghaaleb's City (POST 5) and Ghaly Posse (POST 6) in Race 4, Ghaaleb's City (POST 5) appears again in that race, Onthewayjimmy (POST 1) in Race 6, and Ghaaleb's City (POST 5) in Race 4. The Becker barn's dual entry in Race 4 with two horses at 2-1 each is the most aggressive stable tactic on the card. Trainers who enter multiple horses in optional claiming and allowance-level races typically do so because they have genuine confidence in multiple runners from the stable, and Becker appears to be running at full power this Monday.

Harry Lynch has entries in four races: Hot Dame (POST 1) and What's Crackin (POST 5) in Race 2, Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) in Race 3, and Averyz Day (POST 5) in Race 7. Lynch is clearly one of the most active Fairmount trainers this meet, and his willingness to run multiple horses on the same card indicates a well-stocked barn in good physical condition. His primary runners in each race — What's Crackin (POST 5) in Race 2 and Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) in Race 3 — deserve respect.

Edward Essenpreis has runners in Race 4 on Arose For Lyla (POST 2), Race 6 on Nella (POST 2) and Irish Spark (POST 6), and Race 8 on Jack Sprat (POST 3). The Essenpreis-Arrieta combination is the dominant trainer-jockey pairing for this barn, and the consistency of this booking suggests a trainer who communicates well with his primary jockey. Jack Sprat (POST 3) in the finale with Arrieta at 5-1 may be the Essenpreis barn's best wagering opportunity of the day.

Ralph A. Martinez trains Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) in Race 7 and Julynne (POST 4) in Race 4, both in partnership with jockey Brody Martinez. The Ralph A. Martinez barn is clearly running near peak form based on its morning line representation, and the trainer-jockey family connection gives this barn an edge in communication and horse management.

Steve Manley trains Last Call Geno (POST 2) in Race 1, Illini Red (POST 3) in Race 6, and Camp Daddy (POST 2) in Race 8. Manley's featured runner Illini Red (POST 3) at even money in Race 6 is the most significant single horse the barn has entered today, and the trainer's overall card presence suggests the operation is firing on all cylinders. Camp Daddy (POST 2) in the finale at 4-1 is also a barn that demands attention given the trainer's current form.

Eduardo Rodriguez trains Honor Point (POST 2) in Race 5, Even The Wind (POST 5) in Race 6, and Last Moon (POST 9) in Race 7. Rodriguez is clearly one of the more active trainers at Fairmount this meet, and his regular use of Bendezu and Aranguren reflects stable management that prioritizes top-tier riding talent.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The September 22, 2026 Fairmount card offers several distinct wagering opportunities, and the most effective approach is to concentrate capital in the races with the clearest pace scenarios and best-identified overlays.

The Pick 5 spanning Races 4 through 8 represents the primary sequence opportunity on this card. The recommended structure is to single Illini Red (POST 3) in Race 6 given the even-money morning line in a field where no other horse is below 7-1. Singling an even-money favorite in a sequence bet is generally inadvisable, but the gap between Illini Red (POST 3) and the rest of the field in Race 6 is so pronounced that using the favorite as a single here allows concentration of capital across the more competitive Races 4, 5, 7, and 8.

In Race 4, use Julynne (POST 4) and Arose For Lyla (POST 2) as the top two choices. In Race 5, use Honor Point (POST 2) and More Than Destiny (POST 4). In Race 7, use Grace Met Cupid (POST 4), Averyz Day (POST 5), and Last Moon (POST 9). In Race 8, use Category Ten (POST 5), Camp Daddy (POST 2), and Jack Sprat (POST 3).

A reasonable $2 Pick 5 ticket using two horses in Race 4, two in Race 5, Illini Red (POST 3) as a single in Race 6, three in Race 7, and three in Race 8 would cost 2 x 2 x 1 x 3 x 3 x $2 = $72. This is a manageable investment for a sequence that could return substantial value if any of the secondary prices in the outer legs win.

The primary exacta value play of the card is the Race 6 exacta using Illini Red (POST 3) on top to Tahoe Run (POST 7) and Dream Gold (POST 4). Given that Illini Red (POST 3) is at 1-1 and the second choice Tahoe Run (POST 7) is at 7-1, an exacta return of $20 or more is entirely possible if Illini Red (POST 3) wins and Tahoe Run (POST 7) fills the place spot.

In Race 3, where three horses share 2-1 co-favoritism, the trifecta key using Lucky Monica (POST 7) underneath any two of the three favorites offers the best return-on-investment on the front half of the card. A $1 trifecta key of Code Of Conduct (POST 1) and Spicy Cantaloupe (POST 6) on top with Lucky Monica (POST 7) in third, combined with the reverse using Lucky Monica (POST 7) in second position, provides coverage for a 12-1 horse finishing in the money behind one or two favorites. This combination could return $40 to $80 on a $1 investment.

In Race 5, the overlay candidate Sweet La Crema (POST 3) at 4-1 should be singled in a win bet if the morning line holds at the windows. In a six-horse sprint where two barns have split the morning line with co-favorites, Sweet La Crema (POST 3) at 4-1 from a favorable middle post with a capable rider represents the clearest value on the front half of the card.

For bettors who prefer daily double sequences, the Race 7 to Race 8 daily double using Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) over Category Ten (POST 5) and Camp Daddy (POST 2) is the recommended play. Grace Met Cupid (POST 4) at even money over two horses at 3-1 and 4-1 should return a daily double price in the $15 to $25 range for a $2 ticket, which is reasonable value for a two-race sequence.

The best single bet of the day is What's Crackin (POST 5) to win in Race 2 at 2-1. The Lynch barn's primary runner in a nine-horse route at $4,000 claiming, with Tavares aboard from a favorable post, is the clearest combination of trainer intent, jockey quality, and pace scenario on the entire card.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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