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Fairmount Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 29, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%14%29%43%58%3%7%12%18%26%38%What we said — 3.3%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.0%What we said — 25.7%What we said — 38.1%What we saidWhat happened — 2.9%What happened — 7.4%What happened — 13.9%What happened — 21.6%What happened — 30.4%What happened — 46.7%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.3%2.9%
7%7.4%7.4%
12%12.5%13.9%
18%18.0%21.6%
26%25.7%30.4%
38%38.1%46.7%

Race Day Overview — Fairmount Park, September 29, 2026

Fairmount Park in Collinsville, Illinois closes out its September schedule with an 11-race card on Monday evening, headlined by a pair of optional claiming events that carry the highest purses of the afternoon. The card is dominated by claiming and maiden special weight competition at the lower end of the claiming scale, with the featured Race 7 optional claimer carrying a $39,500 purse and drawing a full field of ten. The overnight sheet is rich with local stock that regular Fairmount bettors will recognize, and several trainer-jockey combinations that have been clicking throughout the meet deserve close attention.

The condition book shows a heavy reliance on Fairmount-seasoned horses, with most fields populated by horses that have been running regularly at this venue. The $38,000 maiden special weight in Race 3 and the $39,500 optional claimer in Race 7 represent the class targets of the card. Bettors looking to capitalize on familiarity angles and local trainer percentages will find plenty of opportunity across the full eleven-race slate.

Notable from recent news in the broader racing landscape: Forever Young has dominated the Breeders' Cup Classic Future Wager Pool 2, closing as the 5-2 favorite following his Jockey Club Gold Cup triumph — a reminder that the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland on October 31 is now the primary focus of connections across the country. At Fairmount, the day-to-day grind continues with reliable local participants and the familiar faces that make this Illinois oval a genuinely enjoyable betting venue for those who do their homework.

Weather and Track Conditions — Fairmount Park, September 29, 2026

The St. Louis metropolitan area, which sits just across the Mississippi River from Fairmount Park in Collinsville, Illinois, is forecast to see partly cloudy skies on September 29 with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit at post time for the early races, cooling into the mid-60s by the time the final races go off under the lights in the early evening hours. No significant precipitation is anticipated through the racing day, which should allow the main track to remain at a fast or good rating. September in the Metro East region can occasionally see lingering moisture from overnight dew, but track crews at Fairmount typically have the surface in manageable condition well before the first post.

Fairmount's main dirt track has historically played fair under dry conditions, with no significant maintenance alerts surfacing ahead of this card. The racing surface at Fairmount is a tight one-mile oval, and the dirt strip tends to compact well in dry weather, producing firm footing that generally rewards horses with tactical speed. Horsemen stabling at Fairmount have noted the track plays reasonably true in fair weather, without the extreme speed-favoring biases seen at some other Midwest ovals.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis — Fairmount Park

Fairmount Park is a one-mile oval with a tight configuration and relatively short stretches. On a fast, dry track, early speed is a meaningful advantage, particularly in sprints, as horses that get to the front or settle close to the pace through the first turn have a notable positional edge over closers who must navigate traffic. The inside rail tends to be contested early in sprints, and horses breaking from posts 1 through 4 in sprint races have historically performed well when they can establish good position.

In route races at Fairmount — those going a mile or longer — the pace dynamics change somewhat, as the additional ground allows for more pace-tracking stalkers to hit the top of the stretch with ammunition. Post position is less determinative in routes, though horses on the outside in a full field at 1760 yards or 1830 yards do face additional ground to cover.

The sprint distances on today's card — 1210 furlongs and 1320 furlongs — favor horses with natural early speed that can secure clean position leaving the gate. At 1210 furlongs (approximately six furlongs), the first turn comes up quickly, making the middle posts (3 through 6) particularly advantageous in competitive fields where multiple speed horses are drawn to the rail.

Bettors should note that at Fairmount, the morning line is frequently set by track handicapper estimates that reflect local conditions rather than national calibration. Overlays are regularly available in claiming races where the consensus tends to compress around a few familiar names, and the exotic pools can offer real value when properly constructed.

RACE 1 — Post 2:30 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 4000 | BUN | Purse $10,100

This is a six-and-a-half-furlong claiming event for $4,000 at the basement level of the claiming scale. A field of eight goes to the gate in what amounts to a catch-me-if-you-can affair among horses that are familiar to Fairmount regulars. The key to solving this race is identifying who controls the pace and whether any stalker has the class and fitness to run them down in the final furlong.

Pace Analysis

Multiple speed horses populate this field, setting up what could be a contested early pace. Strange Arrange (POST 7) figures to be the controlling speed from the outside, while Via Del Corso (POST 6) and Smart Joker (POST 2) both have the profile of horses that want to be near the front. If the pace devolves into a speed duel through the opening half, a closer or stalker with a strong late kick stands to benefit. The pace scenario is the single most important factor to handicap in this race.

Key Contenders

Strange Arrange (POST 7) opens as the morning line favorite at 2-1, trained by Eduardo Rodriguez and ridden by Johanis Aranguren. At this $4,000 claiming tag, a horse installed as the morning line choice typically reflects form that local handicappers consider superior to the field. Rodriguez has been an active presence at Fairmount, and Aranguren is comfortable around this oval. From post 7, the horse will need to establish position early and secure the lead or a comfortable stalking trip to justify favoritism.

Via Del Corso (POST 6) at 4-1 for trainer Harold Mosier with Brody Martinez up is a logical alternative. Mosier is a recognized name at Fairmount meets, and Martinez has been one of the more consistent riders on the grounds. Post 6 in a sprint at this distance sets up reasonably well, and a horse installed second on the morning line at a small track often represents solid underlying form.

Secondary Choices

Smart Joker (POST 2) at 3-1 for trainer James M. Watkins is drawn to the inside, which gives this horse an opportunity to establish an early rail trip. Watkins has been a competitive force at Fairmount, and Smart Joker (POST 2) at 3-1 provides a legitimate alternative to the top two on the line. Alexander Bendezu takes the mount, and Bendezu has been among the more active and successful riders on the Fairmount circuit.

Danza Taxi (POST 8) at 6-1 for trainer Scott Becker with T. Wales aboard is worth a look at a price. Becker has a history of placing horses appropriately, and from the outside post, Danza Taxi (POST 8) will need to find a comfortable pace scenario to close into. If the speed duel materializes up front, the 6-1 morning line could translate to overlay territory at post time.

Longshots

On The Money Red (POST 1) at 10-1 for Gabe Retana with Javier Tavares aboard is the rail horse in a sprint. At $4,000 claiming, post 1 can be a trap in a speed-heavy field, though a clean break could mean an easy lead for this horse.

Sonnyisnotsofunny (POST 5) at 10-1 for trainer Marvel Straub with Reynier Arrieta up is positioned in the middle of the draw. At 10-1, this is a horse to use underneath in exotics if the price holds into post time.

Ice Again (POST 3) at 20-1 for Jashua Robinson with Harold Joseph Ortega up and Tapit Sam (POST 4) at 20-1 for Frank C. Randazzo Jr. with Alvin Ortiz aboard are genuine longshots at the bottom of the morning line. Both face significant questions to compete at even this modest level.

Selections

Win: Strange Arrange (POST 7) Place: Via Del Corso (POST 6) Show: Smart Joker (POST 2)

Betting strategy here is straightforward: play Strange Arrange (POST 7) to win, key Via Del Corso (POST 6) underneath in exactas, and construct a trifecta box using Strange Arrange (POST 7), Via Del Corso (POST 6), and Smart Joker (POST 2) for a modest investment. Danza Taxi (POST 8) at 6-1 is a live trifecta addition if budget allows.

RACE 2 — Post 2:55 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 4000b | BUM | Purse $10,000

A six-furlong claiming event restricted to state-breds at the $4,000 level, with a field of seven mares. The BUM designation indicates Illinois-bred fillies and mares only, which narrows the talent pool to local stock. In a race like this, trainer form and recent fitness are paramount.

Pace Analysis

Frosted Eclair (POST 1) and Diva Las Vegas (POST 4) are both installed at single-digit odds, suggesting a pace matchup between a likely front-runner from the rail and a horse that will be forwardly placed from post 4. If both horses want to lead, the pace could collapse in on itself and set up for Life Of Saturdays (POST 6) at 5-1 to run by late.

Key Contenders

Diva Las Vegas (POST 4) is installed as the even-money morning line favorite for trainer Terry Burdess with Alvin Ortiz in the irons. Even-money in a six-horse field at the $4,000 level speaks to dominant perceived form or recent sharp performances. Ortiz is one of the most accomplished riders on the Fairmount grounds, and Burdess appears comfortable placing this mare at this level. Post 4 in a six-furlong sprint is a workable draw.

Frosted Eclair (POST 1) at 2-1 for trainer Ralph A. Martinez with Alexander Bendezu up is installed as the primary threat. From post 1, this mare figures to get to the lead quickly and could control the tempo if Diva Las Vegas (POST 4) chooses to rate. Martinez saddling two horses in this card — Frosted Eclair (POST 1) here and Echo Dreamer (POST 7) — suggests the barn is active and in good form.

Secondary Choices

Life Of Saturdays (POST 6) at 5-1 for trainer Ted Randazzo with Victor Lara aboard is the most logical price play. From post 6 in a seven-horse field, this mare can find her own pace running behind the early speed and be in a perfect stalking position to inherit the lead if the front-runners back up. Ted Randazzo is a competent local conditioner whose horses tend to run their prices honestly.

Primity (POST 2) at 12-1 for trainer Jessica Jelinski with Ademar Santos aboard and Long Tall Woman (POST 5) at 12-1 for Francisco Villa with Luis H. Colon up are outside prices but worth using underneath in deeper exotics.

Longshots

Delta Lady (POST 3) at 20-1 for Robert Pompell with Reynier Arrieta up is a genuine longshot that would require everything to go right. Echo Dreamer (POST 7) at 15-1 for trainer Ralph A. Martinez with Brody Martinez aboard completes the field. The Martinez barn running two horses at two very different prices — Frosted Eclair (POST 1) at 2-1 and Echo Dreamer (POST 7) at 15-1 — typically signals that the trainer has a clear preference. Bettors should align with Frosted Eclair (POST 1) as the stable's primary hope.

Selections

Win: Diva Las Vegas (POST 4) Place: Frosted Eclair (POST 1) Show: Life Of Saturdays (POST 6)

The exacta Diva Las Vegas (POST 4) over Frosted Eclair (POST 1) is the race's most logical outcome at modest odds. If the pace gets hot, reverse the exacta and include Life Of Saturdays (POST 6) on top in a partial wheel. A trifecta box of the top three is the recommended play for exotic bettors.

RACE 3 — Post 3:20 — 1320f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $38,000

The first major race of the card is a six-and-a-half-furlong maiden special weight for state-bred fillies and mares, carrying a $38,000 purse. A full field of ten goes to the gate, and the race attracts two short-priced morning line favorites — Karazest (POST 8) at 1-1 and Miss Duquoin (POST 4) at 2-1 — setting up what could be an interesting confrontation for bettors seeking value.

Pace Analysis

With two strong favorites drawn at posts 4 and 8, the pace shape depends heavily on whether either horse has early speed or prefers to rate. Karazest (POST 8) installed as the even-money choice suggests demonstrated ability, and from post 8 in a ten-horse field, the horse will need to navigate through traffic if she lacks speed to go to the front. Miss Duquoin (POST 4) from a more favorable inside draw could set or track the pace. If both favorites are not natural front-runners, a speed horse from the middle of the field could steal a soft pace.

Key Contenders

Karazest (POST 8) at 1-1 for trainer Scott Becker with Alexander Bendezu in the irons is installed as the heavy favorite. Becker is one of the more respected trainers active on the Fairmount circuit, having multiple live horses on today's card. Bendezu aboard reinforces confidence — this combination of trainer and jockey has produced results at this meet. At even money in a ten-horse field, Karazest (POST 8) faces pressure to perform, but the morning line installation at that price is a clear vote of confidence in her ability to handle these state-bred maiden competitors.

Miss Duquoin (POST 4) at 2-1 for John Rednour Jr. with Harold Joseph Ortega up is the designated challenger. Rednour is a familiar name at Fairmount and in the Illinois circuit broadly, and Miss Duquoin (POST 4) from post 4 has the positional advantage. Ortega is a capable handler who knows this oval well. This filly is the one to beat if Karazest (POST 8) encounters any trouble or fails to perform to expectation.

Secondary Choices

Milaalah (POST 6) at 6-1 for trainer Harry E. Lynch with Frank Reyes up is the first price horse worth singling out. Lynch is a steady presence on the Fairmount grounds, and Milaalah (POST 6) at 6-1 could represent real value if she is on the improve. Reyes takes the mount and has been an active participant in the jockey standings.

Derby Gala (POST 5) at 8-1 for trainer Brian Cook with Johanis Aranguren aboard is another legitimate price alternative. From post 5, Derby Gala (POST 5) gets a mid-pack draw and could find a comfortable trip stalking the early pace.

Shosweet (POST 3) at 12-1 for trainer Ben DeLong with Victor Lara up offers additional upside in trifecta and superfecta construction.

Longshots

Last Candy (POST 7) at 15-1 for Terry R. Young with Brody Martinez up is the longest-priced horse that could logically compete in this field. Good Nellie (POST 1) at 30-1 for Shane Childers with Alvin Ortiz up carries a tough post in a large field, though Ortiz's presence is a mild positive. Set In Ice (POST 2) at 30-1 for John Rednour Jr. with Ademar Santos up is the second Rednour trainee in this race, a stable that typically has one primary horse. Maggies Little Bee (POST 9) at 30-1 for Shane Childers with Javier Tavares up and Frost Bitten Ears (POST 10) at 30-1 for Omar Razvi with A.O. Stanley aboard are genuine longshots from difficult outside posts in a ten-horse field and are best used only in superfecta bottom slots.

Selections

Win: Karazest (POST 8) Place: Miss Duquoin (POST 4) Show: Milaalah (POST 6)

The betting strategy here is to accept the short price on Karazest (POST 8) in the win slot and build exotics around her. The exacta Karazest (POST 8) over Miss Duquoin (POST 4) is the likely outcome at low combined odds, so trifecta play is where value is found. Key Karazest (POST 8) on top, spread to Miss Duquoin (POST 4), Milaalah (POST 6), and Derby Gala (POST 5) in the middle, then open the bottom to the field for a reasonable per-combination investment.

RACE 4 — Post 3:45 — 1760f | D | C | Clm 6250n5l | BUN | Purse $12,500

A route race at one mile on the main track, restricted to horses that have not won five races lifetime at the claiming price of $6,250. A field of eight goes to the gate in what is one of the more competitive races on the card at this mid-level claiming price. Route races at Fairmount tend to produce more genuine pace scenarios, and the one-mile distance gives stalkers and closers an opportunity to get into the race.

Pace Analysis

Patch O'brien (POST 2) and Mystic Power (POST 4) are co-favored at 2-1, suggesting two similarly regarded horses will meet head-to-head in a route. Get Through (POST 8) at 5-1 and Mister Sharpie (POST 3) at 7-1 round out the main pace contenders. The question is whether either of the favorites wants to be on the lead or whether they prefer to rate. If neither favorite is a confirmed front-runner, early position could be seized by a longer-priced horse and result in a soft pace that sets up for a front-runner to wire the field.

Key Contenders

Patch O'brien (POST 2) at 2-1 for trainer Hugo Rodriguez with Alexander Bendezu in the irons comes out of a favorable inside draw. Rodriguez has been represented well by Bendezu throughout the meet, and Patch O'brien (POST 2) figures to get a clean trip from post 2 in an eight-horse field. At the one-mile distance, inside posts tend to be advantageous as horses can secure the rail early and save ground on the two turns.

Mystic Power (POST 4) at 2-1 for trainer Steve Manley with Reynier Arrieta up is the other co-favorite. Arrieta is one of the more experienced journeymen on the Fairmount circuit, and Manley's horses have shown up competitively at this venue. From post 4, Mystic Power (POST 4) will need to position behind the early pace or establish the tempo himself. The even odds suggest local handicappers see little to separate these two at face value.

Secondary Choices

Get Through (POST 8) at 5-1 for trainer Lori Plasters with Ademar Santos up is the most attractive price alternative. From the outside post in a route, there is added ground to cover, but Plasters has shown patience in placement decisions, and Get Through (POST 8) at 5-1 could be available as a legitimate overlay at post time. Santos is comfortable at Fairmount and will need to find a trip from the outside.

Mister Sharpie (POST 3) at 7-1 for trainer Mike Durham with Javier Diego up is worth including in exotic wagers. From post 3 between the co-favorites, Mister Sharpie (POST 3) could find himself pinched at the start or forced wide — a trip concern that explains the morning line price.

Longshots

City Of God (POST 1) at 8-1 for Gene J. Sandrowski with Brody Martinez up gets the rail in a route, which is a genuine advantage if the horse can break alertly. Sandrowski is a lesser-known conditioner on the grounds, and City Of God (POST 1) at 8-1 could be a value spot if the horse has been training well. Granddaddylonglegs (POST 5) at 15-1 for Jose G. Rodriguez with A.O. Stanley up and Weslan (POST 7) at 12-1 for John Wainwright with J.E. Felix aboard are outside prices but worth sprinkling into trifecta bottoms. African Warrior (POST 6) at 30-1 for Fernando Bahena with Alvin Ortiz up is a genuine longshot at this price and would need a significant race to compete.

Selections

Win: Patch O'brien (POST 2) Place: Mystic Power (POST 4) Show: Get Through (POST 8)

The co-favorite situation invites exacta play in both directions. Box Patch O'brien (POST 2) and Mystic Power (POST 4) in the exacta as a base, then build a trifecta keying those two on top with Get Through (POST 8), Mister Sharpie (POST 3), and City Of God (POST 1) underneath.

RACE 5 — Post 4:10 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 15000n4l | BUM | Purse $14,500

A six-furlong claiming sprint for state-bred mares that have not won four races at the $15,000 level. The purse climbs to $14,500 in this restricted event, and the morning line is dominated by Call Me Christine (POST 6) at 1-1. A field of eight goes to the gate, and this race figures to be one of the most heavily bet on the card given the heavy favorite's installation.

Pace Analysis

With Call Me Christine (POST 6) installed at even money, the pace will likely be shaped by whatever tactical position her connections choose. Sunset Harbour (POST 1) at 2-1 is the other short-priced horse, setting up a potential pace confrontation from the rail. At six furlongs in a sprint, the horse that establishes clean position early without fighting for the lead tends to have the best final-furlong energy. If Sunset Harbour (POST 1) and Call Me Christine (POST 6) both want to be on the pace, the door opens slightly for a price horse to close late.

Key Contenders

Call Me Christine (POST 6) at 1-1 for trainer Ralph A. Martinez with Brody Martinez up is installed as the overwhelming favorite. Martinez is a trainer who continues to send horses to the post in form throughout this card, and Call Me Christine (POST 6) appears to be the barn's marquee runner in this spot. From post 6 in an eight-horse field at six furlongs, there is minimal positional risk, and the inside-outside dynamic should allow her to find her preferred running style. At even money in a state-bred restricted event, the implied probability is high, and bettors will need to decide whether to accept the short price in win wagering or leverage her in exotics.

Sunset Harbour (POST 1) at 2-1 for trainer James M. Watkins with Ademar Santos up is the principal challenger. Watkins has multiple horses on today's card, suggesting a barn in good condition, and Sunset Harbour (POST 1) from the rail in a six-furlong sprint could save ground throughout if she gets a clean break. Santos is a capable pilot who knows how to ride the rail position intelligently.

Secondary Choices

Rietta (POST 8) at 9-1 for trainer Michele Boyce with Luis H. Colon up is the most interesting price alternative in this race. From post 8, Rietta (POST 8) will be widest in the field, but Boyce has shown an ability to place horses competitively, and at 9-1, the risk-reward calculation is more favorable than the favorites.

Hootie Hoot (POST 3) at 10-1 for Jose Huerta with Harold Joseph Ortega up and Secret Operation (POST 5) at 10-1 for Adrian M. Salazar with Victor Santiago up are both at the same morning line price and worth watching in wagering pools.

Longshots

Golden Edge (POST 4) at 12-1 for Tammy Hornsby with Cory Orm up is a longshot that will need a complete race to factor. I Be Gone (POST 7) at 15-1 for Dennis Higgins with Javier Diego up is priced accordingly. Plum Irish (POST 2) at 20-1 for Jashua Robinson with Javier Tavares up is the longest price in the field and a genuine longshot.

Selections

Win: Call Me Christine (POST 6) Place: Sunset Harbour (POST 1) Show: Rietta (POST 8)

At even money, Call Me Christine (POST 6) is a cold single for win bettors. The play for value is to use her as the key in exacta and trifecta wagers rather than accepting the flat win price. An exacta wheel Call Me Christine (POST 6) over the field at six furlongs is the cleanest single-race strategy here.

RACE 6 — Post 4:35 — 1210f | D | AO | OClm 10000n1x | BUM | Purse $19,000

This optional claiming event for fillies and mares at six furlongs carries a $19,000 purse and an n1x condition, meaning horses that have not won a race other than maiden or claiming in their last start are eligible — a condition designed to attract lightly raced or recently claiming-placed horses. A field of nine goes to the gate in what is one of the more complex betting races on the card, with co-favorites Sally's Suprise (POST 2) and Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8) both installed at 2-1.

Pace Analysis

The nine-horse field at six furlongs creates legitimate pace questions. Sally's Suprise (POST 2) from post 2 and Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8) from post 8 will approach this race from different angles. With Smoked (POST 4) at 4-1 also in the mix, there is legitimate speed presence across the field. The optional claiming condition typically attracts horses near the top of their game at this class level, and a genuine pace battle could set up a late-running type.

Key Contenders

Sally's Suprise (POST 2) at 2-1 for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez with Johanis Aranguren up is co-installed as the morning line leader. Rodriguez is a familiar name at Fairmount, and Sally's Suprise (POST 2) from post 2 has an excellent draw to get clean early position in a nine-horse field. Aranguren is comfortable at this venue, and the combination presents well.

Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8) at 2-1 for trainer Scott Becker with Victor Santiago up is Becker's second live horse on the card after Karazest (POST 8) in Race 3. Becker continues to have a strong presence at this meet, and Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8) at co-favorite odds from the outside post is trusted by the morning line maker. From post 8 of 9 at six furlongs, there is a path to a stalking trip that could set up a powerful late move if the pace unfolds honestly.

Secondary Choices

Smoked (POST 4) at 4-1 for trainer Larry Rivelli with J.E. Felix up is an intriguing secondary choice. Rivelli, though based primarily at Hawthorne and other Midwest venues, has shown the ability to reach out to smaller circuits with properly placed horses. Smoked (POST 4) at 4-1 from a favorable middle post is worth serious consideration in exacta and trifecta construction.

W W Grand Finale (POST 5) at 8-1 for trainer Scott Becker with Alexander Bendezu up is Becker's third horse on today's card — a remarkable barn presence that signals a trainer with his stock in form. At 8-1 with Bendezu aboard, W W Grand Finale (POST 5) is a legitimate value play that should be included in exactas and trifectas.

Wampus Kitten (POST 9) at 8-1 for trainer Hugo Rodriguez with Luis H. Colon up rounds out the secondary alternatives. From the outside post in a nine-horse sprint, Wampus Kitten (POST 9) will need to either clear to the front or find an immediate stalking trip without burning energy in traffic.

Longshots

Samarita (POST 1) at 10-1 for Jose G. Rodriguez with A.O. Stanley up and Raceday Attire (POST 3) at 10-1 for Ruben Cruz Jr. with Harold Joseph Ortega up are both double-digit prices worth sprinkling into trifecta and superfecta wagers. Mamba Out (POST 7) at 15-1 for trainer Blanca Candelas with Frank Reyes up is a longer price alternative. Anna After Midnite (POST 6) at 30-1 for Frank C. Randazzo Jr. with Javier Tavares up is a genuine longshot and a bottom-of-card superfecta slot at best.

Selections

Win: Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8) Place: Sally's Suprise (POST 2) Show: Smoked (POST 4)

With Becker's barn red-hot across the card, Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8) gets the nod as the top selection despite the outside post. The exacta Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8) over Sally's Suprise (POST 2) and reverse are both worth playing at the 2-1/2-1 morning line combination. Include W W Grand Finale (POST 5) as a trifecta bottom to take advantage of the same barn's additional entry.

RACE 7 — Post 5:00 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 20000n3l | BUN | Purse $39,500

The featured race of the card is a six-and-a-half-furlong optional claiming event for horses that have not won three races at the $20,000 level. A full field of ten goes to the gate for the card's richest purse at $39,500. This is the race that figures to attract the most sophisticated wagering on the card, and the morning line offers genuine spread with no horse installed below 2-1.

Pace Analysis

Gogh (POST 4) at 2-1 is the lone morning line favorite in a field that shows real competitive depth. Coolthing (POST 1) at 4-1 and Earl's Outlaw (POST 10) at 5-1 are the next choices, followed by a cluster of horses at 5-1 through 6-1. Ten horses going six and a half furlongs on the main track means the first turn will be contested, and early position will be at a premium. The pace scenario is genuinely complex in this field, and the stalker-to-closer dynamic could produce a result that pays well in exotics.

Key Contenders

Gogh (POST 4) at 2-1 for trainer Michele Boyce with Luis H. Colon up is the morning line choice in the feature. Boyce has multiple horses on today's card — Gogh (POST 4) here and Rietta (POST 8) in Race 5 — indicating a barn with live stock. From post 4 in a ten-horse field at this distance, Gogh (POST 4) gets a workable draw. Colon's experience on the Fairmount grounds makes this a smooth operation, and at 2-1 in an optional claimer at this purse level, the favorite represents genuine perceived quality.

Coolthing (POST 1) at 4-1 for trainer Harry E. Lynch with Frank Reyes up is installed as the second choice from the rail post. Lynch also runs Best Man Speech (POST 8) in Race 8, demonstrating barn activity. Coolthing (POST 1) from post 1 at six and a half furlongs on a speed-favoring main track is a very interesting configuration — if this horse can break alertly and secure the rail, the ground savings on the two turns could be decisive. Reyes is comfortable around this oval, and the 4-1 morning line on a horse with a favorable post is worth noting.

Secondary Choices

Earl's Outlaw (POST 10) at 5-1 for trainer Gabe Retana with Javier Tavares up is Retana's second horse on the card after On The Money Red (POST 1) in Race 1. From the outside post in a ten-horse field, Earl's Outlaw (POST 10) will need to either clear to the front or settle wide through the early stages — both adding ground to cover in a six-and-a-half-furlong sprint. At 5-1, however, the price compensates for the trip risk, and Retana's barn has the look of a conditioner who sends horses ready.

Man On Attack (POST 2) at 5-1 for trainer Shane Childers with A.O. Stanley up is another strong secondary option. Childers runs three horses on today's card — Man On Attack (POST 2) here, Good Nellie (POST 1) and Maggies Little Bee (POST 9) in Race 3 — pointing to an active and confident barn. From post 2 in the feature, Man On Attack (POST 2) has a clean draw inside a competitive field and at 5-1, the price is appealing.

Somethintobelieven (POST 6) at 6-1 for trainer Robert Pompell with Ademar Santos up and Baby I'm Hammered (POST 8) at 6-1 for trainer Edward Essenpreis with Reynier Arrieta up are both at the same morning line price and deserve consideration. Arrieta is one of the more aggressive riders at Fairmount, and Baby I'm Hammered (POST 8) from post 8 at 6-1 could be an excellent trifecta alternative.

Longshots

Diamnd Con Suerte (POST 3) at 20-1 for Kevin Wilborn with Victor Lara up and Steve (POST 9) at 20-1 for Marvel Straub with Cory Orm up are genuine longshots in a competitive field. Canyon Shadows (POST 5) at 30-1 for Amy Nesbitt with Alvin Ortiz up is the longest price in the feature and would require an exceptional trip to factor. Stance (POST 7) at 15-1 for John Wainwright with J.E. Felix up is in the middle of the price range and could find a trip in a large field.

Selections

Win: Gogh (POST 4) Place: Coolthing (POST 1) Show: Earl's Outlaw (POST 10)

The feature is the prime target for multi-race sequence play. Key Gogh (POST 4) on top in exactas, then spread to Coolthing (POST 1), Earl's Outlaw (POST 10), Man On Attack (POST 2), and Baby I'm Hammered (POST 8) underneath. For trifecta play, key Gogh (POST 4) on top with Coolthing (POST 1) and Earl's Outlaw (POST 10) in the middle and open the bottom to five or six horses for a deep trifecta ticket.

RACE 8 — Post 5:25 — 1830f | D | C | Clm 5000n1y | BUN | Purse $10,800

The final race of the highlighted card goes at approximately one mile and seventy yards — a route distance at the $5,000 claiming level restricted to horses that have not won in the past year. This condition tends to attract horses that have been struggling to break through or returning from extended layoffs. An eleven-horse field makes this one of the deepest cards of the day in terms of entries, and the pace and trip dynamics at this extended distance are genuinely difficult to project.

Pace Analysis

Spanish Doubloon (POST 5) at 3-1 and Lou Man (POST 6) at 4-1 are co-installed as the top two on the morning line, suggesting these are the horses to beat. In a route at Fairmount with eleven runners, the first turn sets the tone, and horses with early tactical speed that can settle into a comfortable stalking position are at an advantage. The n1y condition means every horse in this field has gone at least a year without winning, which creates genuine uncertainty about current form.

Key Contenders

Spanish Doubloon (POST 5) at 3-1 for trainer James M. Watkins with Ademar Santos up is Watkins's second horse on the card after Sunset Harbour (POST 1) in Race 5. A barn with multiple live horses on a single card often indicates horses in peak condition, and Spanish Doubloon (POST 5) at 3-1 from the middle of an eleven-horse field at a route distance is a manageable configuration. Santos has shown the ability to handle route trips at Fairmount.

Lou Man (POST 6) at 4-1 for trainer Maximino Quinonez with Alexander Bendezu up is the next horse on the morning line. Bendezu is among the most active and successful jockeys at this meet, and Lou Man (POST 6) from post 6 gets a workable draw in a large field. Quinonez is a trainer who tends to place horses carefully, and the 4-1 morning line reflects genuine competitiveness.

Secondary Choices

Basscoat (POST 7) at 4-1 for trainer Michael Lauer with Brody Martinez up is co-installed at the same price as Lou Man (POST 6). Lauer is active on the circuit, and Martinez riding at 4-1 suggests the morning line maker sees three legitimate contenders clustered at the top of the odds. From post 7 in a large field at a route distance, Basscoat (POST 7) will need a clean break and a good stalking trip to factor.

Lucky Boss (POST 9) at 5-1 for trainer Jada K. Schlenk with Harold Joseph Ortega up is the best price alternative in this race. From post 9 of eleven, the outside draw is a concern in a route, but Lucky Boss (POST 9) at 5-1 offers genuine value if this horse can navigate from the outside and find cover early. Ortega knows the Fairmount oval well.

Army Hero (POST 4) at 10-1 for trainer Lori Plasters with Victor Santiago up is Plasters's second horse on the card after Get Through (POST 8) in Race 4. At 10-1 with a middle draw, Army Hero (POST 4) is worth including in deeper exotic structures.

Longshots

Juliaison (POST 1) at 12-1 for John Wainwright with Javier Diego up gets the rail in a route — a potentially advantageous spot if the horse breaks alertly and settles on the fence. Mon Ami Fuzzie (POST 3) at 12-1 for Jose G. Rodriguez with Emmanuel Giles up and Shady Mcgee (POST 11) at 12-1 for Rhonda Thurman with Javier Tavares up round out the middle price tier. Millard's Smile (POST 10) at 15-1 for Harold Mosier with J.E. Felix up is a moderate longshot from a difficult outside post. Best Man Speech (POST 8) at 30-1 for Harry E. Lynch with Victor Lara up and Ancient Man (POST 2) at 30-1 for Ida Spagnola with Victor Jadhir Bailon up are genuine longshots and bottom-of-ticket superfecta inclusions only.

Selections

Win: Spanish Doubloon (POST 5) Place: Lou Man (POST 6) Show: Basscoat (POST 7)

In an eleven-horse route at a modest claiming level, exacta boxes among the top three on the morning line make sense. Key Spanish Doubloon (POST 5) on top in trifectas, spread Lou Man (POST 6) and Basscoat (POST 7) in the middle, and open the bottom to Lucky Boss (POST 9), Army Hero (POST 4), and Juliaison (POST 1).

Jockey Notes and Insights

Alexander Bendezu is clearly the marquee rider at this Fairmount meet, with mounts in nearly every race on the card. He rides Smart Joker (POST 2) in Race 1, Frosted Eclair (POST 1) in Race 2, Karazest (POST 8) in Race 3, Patch O'brien (POST 2) in Race 4, W W Grand Finale (POST 5) in Race 6, and Lou Man (POST 6) in Race 8. This level of volume at a small oval typically indicates a rider who is the leading jockey or close to it at the meet, and trainers trust him with their best chances. Bendezu's book for today suggests he is riding horses trained by different barns, which speaks to his standing in the colony. When a rider of this volume gets on a horse at a short price, it deserves additional respect.

Brody Martinez is another high-volume rider today, with mounts in Races 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 8 across multiple trainers. Martinez's presence on Call Me Christine (POST 6) in Race 5 for trainer Ralph A. Martinez — likely a family or business connection — is worth noting. When a trainer puts a high-percentage jockey on a horse at even money, the intent is clear.

Reynier Arrieta appears across multiple races with mounts including Sonnyisnotsofunny (POST 5) in Race 1, Delta Lady (POST 3) in Race 2, Mystic Power (POST 4) in Race 4, and Baby I'm Hammered (POST 8) in Race 7. Arrieta is an aggressive rider who tends to put horses in good early position, which suits sprint races at Fairmount.

Alvin Ortiz is aboard the co-favorite Diva Las Vegas (POST 4) in Race 2 and African Warrior (POST 6) in Race 4, as well as Good Nellie (POST 1) in Race 3 and Canyon Shadows (POST 5) in Race 7. Ortiz on a short-priced horse in any race is a meaningful signal, and his mount on Diva Las Vegas (POST 4) in Race 2 represents the clearest example of that principle today.

Ademar Santos rides across six races including Frosted Eclair (POST 1) in Race 2 (no, Santos is on Primity (POST 2) in Race 2 — see correction: Santos rides Primity (POST 2) in Race 2, Sunset Harbour (POST 1) in Race 5, Somethintobelieven (POST 6) in Race 7, and Spanish Doubloon (POST 5) in Race 8), indicating strong rider demand at this meet.

Harold Joseph Ortega takes mounts in Races 1, 3, 5, and 8 and is a dependable presence for trainers looking for a reliable pilot at competitive prices.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Scott Becker is the most prominent trainer story on this card, with live horses in Races 3, 6, 6, and 8 — specifically Karazest (POST 8) in Race 3 as the even-money favorite, Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8) and W W Grand Finale (POST 5) in Race 6, and Danza Taxi (POST 8) in Race 1. A trainer with multiple horses across a single card who installs one at even money and another at 2-1 is a barn that warrants maximum attention. When Becker's horses are short prices, they tend to be there for a reason.

Ralph A. Martinez trains Frosted Eclair (POST 1) in Race 2, Echo Dreamer (POST 7) in Race 2, and Call Me Christine (POST 6) in Race 5. Running two horses in the same race — Frosted Eclair (POST 1) and Echo Dreamer (POST 7) — typically signals the trainer has a clear preference for one over the other, and the morning line installation at 2-1 versus 15-1 makes that preference obvious. Call Me Christine (POST 6) at even money in Race 5 is the barn's premium entry today.

James M. Watkins has Smart Joker (POST 2) in Race 1, Sunset Harbour (POST 1) in Race 5, and Spanish Doubloon (POST 5) in Race 8. A three-horse day for a single trainer at a small oval suggests the barn is in excellent condition, and any Watkins horse at single-digit odds deserves respect. Sunset Harbour (POST 1) at 2-1 in Race 5 alongside the even-money Call Me Christine (POST 6) creates an interesting head-to-head within the same race.

Shane Childers saddles three horses — Good Nellie (POST 1) and Maggies Little Bee (POST 9) in Race 3, and Man On Attack (POST 2) in Race 7. With Good Nellie (POST 1) and Maggies Little Bee (POST 9) both installed at 30-1 in Race 3, the trainer's primary focus clearly points toward Man On Attack (POST 2) at 5-1 in the feature as the barn's live runner.

Harry E. Lynch runs Milaalah (POST 6) in Race 3, Coolthing (POST 1) in Race 7, and Best Man Speech (POST 8) in Race 8. Coolthing (POST 1) at 4-1 from the rail in the feature is the Lynch barn's best hope of the afternoon, and the morning line placement suggests this horse is genuinely competitive in the optional claiming event.

Hugo Rodriguez and Jose G. Rodriguez are both active in multiple races, with Hugo managing Patch O'brien (POST 2) in Race 4 and Wampus Kitten (POST 9) in Race 6, while Jose G. handles Granddaddylonglegs (POST 5) in Race 4, Samarita (POST 1) in Race 6, and Mon Ami Fuzzie (POST 3) in Race 8.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The card at Fairmount on September 29, 2026 offers significant opportunity for exotic wagering, particularly through vertical sequences. Here are the key strategies:

Pick 3 — Races 1 through 3: The opening Pick 3 sequence runs through what are effectively the morning's most clearly defined races. Strange Arrange (POST 7) in Race 1 is the anchor, Diva Las Vegas (POST 4) in Race 2 is the second leg anchor, and Karazest (POST 8) in Race 3 is the third leg anchor. A single-single-single ticket at these three favorites carries modest combined odds but is worth playing as a base, with a secondary ticket using Smart Joker (POST 2) in Race 1, Frosted Eclair (POST 1) in Race 2, and Miss Duquoin (POST 4) in Race 3 as backups.

Pick 4 — Races 5 through 8: This is the sequence with the most value potential on the card. Call Me Christine (POST 6) in Race 5 is a manageable short-priced key. In Race 6, spreading to Saint Ghaaleb (POST 8), Sally's Suprise (POST 2), and Smoked (POST 4) creates a three-way ticket through a competitive optional claimer. Gogh (POST 4) in Race 7 is the natural key in the feature, and in Race 8, spreading to Spanish Doubloon (POST 5), Lou Man (POST 6), and Basscoat (POST 7) covers the morning line's top three. A ticket of 1x3x1x3 = nine combinations for the Pick 4 at a $1 base is the recommended approach.

Best Value Play of the Card: Coolthing (POST 1) at 4-1 in Race 7 from the rail post in the feature is the single best overlay opportunity on the card. A horse with a favorable draw at a legitimate price in the highest-purse race of the day, trained by a barn with an active presence, and ridden by a jockey comfortable at this venue represents precisely the type of horse that smart bettors circle. Use Coolthing (POST 1) underneath Gogh (POST 4) in exactas and as an alternative top selection in a small win wager for the optimal risk-reward profile.

Trainer angle of the day: Scott Becker with three horses across the card including an even-money choice in Race 3. When a trainer of this caliber installs a horse at even money in a maiden special weight at this purse level, respect the horse. Karazest (POST 8) in Race 3 is the card's closest thing to a banker, and bettors constructing Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences from Race 3 onward should single her wherever possible.

Jockey angle of the day: Alexander Bendezu's full book of mounts gives him the opportunity to collect key information throughout the card. His highest-profile assignment is Karazest (POST 8) in Race 3, and his continued presence through the card on multiple trainer accounts — including Patch O'brien (POST 2) in Race 4 — makes him the day's most important rider to track across all races.

Superfecta play of the day: Race 7, the feature, is the optimal superfecta race given the spread in the morning line and the ten-horse field. Key Gogh (POST 4) and Coolthing (POST 1) on top, spread Earl's Outlaw (POST 10), Man On Attack (POST 2), Baby I'm Hammered (POST 8), and Somethintobelieven (POST 6) across the middle positions, and open the bottom to the remaining field. A $0.10 superfecta covering this structure keeps the ticket cost manageable while providing access to what could be an excellent payout in the card's marquee event.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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