Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Switching from turf to dirt today. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 2p; belatedly inside. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.4 pts: [73, 77, 54, 75, 66]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/7) Mod2(W): 100 (1/7) Mod3(W): 100 (1/7) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/7) Win Prob: 75.2% Value Score: 2.51 ★ ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -14.68 Fair Odds: 5.55 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (64) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 83 vs field 76). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Fourth race back from a 95-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs). (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Early Speed Edge, Weight Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Brk gt; shdw; 4w; chsd. (4) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 50 (4/7) Mod2(W): 61 (4/7) Mod3(W): 56 (4/7) Mod1-LS: 45 (7/7) Mod2-LS: 60 (4/7) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 46 (4/7) Win Prob: 36.6% Value Score: 3.29 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 2.13 Fair Odds: 6.54 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($25,000 → $17,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (39%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). (4) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Strong speed 2 back (70), modest dip last out (64) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Switching turf-to-dirt with a strong turf pedigree rating (108) — pedigree suggests main-track improvement is likely. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Form Reversal, Bullet Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Class Drop, Pedigree-Backed Switch.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (2) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (3) Switching from turf to dirt today. (4) Trip note from last race: Bmp brk;2p;mild gain.
Mod1(W): 63 (3/7) Mod2(W): 71 (3/7) Mod3(W): 67 (3/7) Mod1-LS: 63 (6/7) Mod2-LS: 70 (3/7) Mod3-LS: 69 (2/7) Mod4(Form): 77 (3/7) Win Prob: 56% Value Score: 3.24 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.16 Fair Odds: 6.61 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong speed 2 back (70), modest dip last out (63) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Pace; yield top; wknd. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (7) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 20 (5/7) Mod2(W): 32 (5/7) Mod3(W): 31 (6/7) Mod1-LS: 91 (2/7) Mod2-LS: 30 (5/7) Mod3-LS: 14 (6/7) Mod4(Form): 22 (6/7) Win Prob: 19.5% Value Score: 3.25 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 6.56 Fair Odds: 6.97 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 42-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Career-best speed figure (46) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 4/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 42 days. (2) Rising in class today ($12,500 → $17,500). (3) Speed average (43) well below field median (65). (4) First time at today's distance. (5) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (6) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (7) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (8) Trip note from last race: Outrun 3wd. (9) Rising in class ($12,500 → $17,500) after finishing 7 last out — double negative. (10) Stepping up to $17,500 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $12,500).
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 10 (7/7) Mod4(Form): 1 (7/7) Win Prob: 11.4% Value Score: 3.08 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 6.56 Fair Odds: 8.74 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 35-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (42%). (3) Career-best speed figure (65) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 35 days. (2) Rising in class today ($12,500 → $17,500). (3) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (4) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Chased3-4w; weakened. (6) Rising in class ($12,500 → $17,500) after finishing 4 last out — double negative.
Mod1(W): 20 (6/7) Mod2(W): 32 (6/7) Mod3(W): 33 (5/7) Mod1-LS: 65 (5/7) Mod2-LS: 30 (6/7) Mod3-LS: 63 (3/7) Mod4(Form): 23 (5/7) Win Prob: 19% Value Score: 3.17 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 5.65 Fair Odds: 7.59 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). (2) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 71). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 9 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Cued3w;met bid;gamely. (4) Last race was career-best speed (73) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (6) 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 74 (2/7) Mod2(W): 82 (2/7) Mod3(W): 76 (2/7) Mod1-LS: 81 (3/7) Mod2-LS: 81 (2/7) Mod3-LS: 59 (4/7) Mod4(Form): 91 (2/7) Win Prob: 72.5% Value Score: 3.26 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.95 Fair Odds: 6.52 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (36%). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Career-best figure (75) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 13 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Track; no response. (4) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (5) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 12 (7/7) Mod2(W): 15 (7/7) Mod3(W): 9 (7/7) Mod1-LS: 70 (4/7) Mod2-LS: 13 (7/7) Mod3-LS: 49 (5/7) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 14.5% Value Score: 3.91 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 6.89 Fair Odds: 8.44 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 41-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Fourth race back from a 69-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Consistent workout spacing (7, 6 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Trainer "D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO" has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Career-best figure (88) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Stable on Fire, Hidden Figure, Sharp Workout Pattern, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 41 days. (2) Rising in class today ($17,500 → $25,000). (3) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (4) Switching from dirt to turf today. (5) Trip note from last race: Awk brk;4-3w move;drvg. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.3 pts: [80, 80, 57, 82, 74]) — unpredictable performer. (7) First start at GP — never raced here before (last seen at: GP, TAM).
Mod1(W): 76 (4/6) Mod2(W): 78 (3/6) Mod3(W): 77 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 65 (5/6) Mod2-LS: 81 (3/6) Mod3-LS: 55 (4/6) Mod4(Form): 73 (3/6) Win Prob: 64% Value Score: 4.1 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.28 Fair Odds: 5.98 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | C | A |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 53-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). (4) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (6) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 83). (7) Consistent workout spacing (7, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen. (8) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (9) Returning from 53-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Bullet Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Sharp Return Workout, Early Speed Edge, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 53 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Chase;2-3p;duel;miss. (4) First start at GP — never raced here before (last seen at: TAM, SAR).
Mod1(W): 85 (3/6) Mod2(W): 68 (5/6) Mod3(W): 71 (4/6) Mod1-LS: 68 (4/6) Mod2-LS: 70 (4/6) Mod3-LS: 51 (5/6) Mod4(Form): 48 (5/6) Win Prob: 49.2% Value Score: 4.42 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 4.61 Fair Odds: 5.35 (9/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (56%). (2) Track specialist — 2 wins from 5 starts here (40%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 87 vs field 76). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Fourth race back from a 51-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at GP on turf in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Won Here Before, Track Specialist, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Rail; angle 4wd; rally. (2) Consistently breaks behind post position (4 of last 5 starts).
Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 95 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 60 (3/6) Mod4(Form): 93 (2/6) Win Prob: 72.4% Value Score: 3.25 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.72 Fair Odds: 5.04 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | B | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 83 vs field 76). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Strong speed 2 back (89), modest dip last out (82) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at GP on turf in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Switching from dirt to turf today. (2) Trip note from last race: Ang in 1/8; stayed on. (3) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (4) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 25 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 94 (2/6) Mod2(W): 92 (2/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 96 (2/6) Mod2-LS: 98 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 64 (2/6) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 69.7% Value Score: 2.68 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -10.29 Fair Odds: 5.37 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 138-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (3) Big last-race effort (80) — 10 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (5) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (7) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Trainer 'JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 106 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Stable on Fire, First-Time Turf with Pedigree, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 138 days. (2) Rising in class today ($8,000 → $25,000). (3) Speed average (72) well below field median (78). (4) Has never raced on turf surface. (5) Switching from dirt to turf today. (6) Trip note from last race: Bump st; press 3p. (7) First start at GP — never raced here before (last seen at: GP).
Mod1(W): 36 (6/6) Mod2(W): 40 (6/6) Mod3(W): 45 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 76 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 40 (6/6) Mod3-LS: 35 (6/6) Mod4(Form): 28 (6/6) Win Prob: 40.2% Value Score: 5.68 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 5.12 Fair Odds: 7.19 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 166-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (56%). (3) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (4) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (5) Consistent workout spacing (7, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Dropping in class ($25,000 vs last $40,000) after a 166-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (8) Returning from 166-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['L', 'O', 'S']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Won at This Distance, Bullet Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Sharp Return Workout, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 166 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Switching from dirt to turf today. (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Ins;angl 3w;no kick.
Mod1(W): 72 (5/6) Mod2(W): 70 (4/6) Mod3(W): 69 (5/6) Mod1-LS: 56 (6/6) Mod2-LS: 66 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod4(Form): 69 (4/6) Win Prob: 56.6% Value Score: 3.99 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.04 Fair Odds: 6.03 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | C | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (75) — 35 pts above recent average. (2) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Carries 6 lbs less than field median (120 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (48) well below field median (78). (3) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: 2p;drift;bolt lt;held. (5) Last race was career-best speed (75) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) Cold jockey — low ITM rate (8%). (7) No workout in last 30 days despite 26 days since last race. (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 19.5 pts: [75, 23, 58, 40, 46]) — unpredictable performer. (9) First start at GP — never raced here before (last seen at: TAM, GP).
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 16.1% Value Score: 4.32 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 7.51 Fair Odds: 7.91 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | D |
| Turf Speed | D | B |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 216-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 216 days. (2) Speed average (63) well below field median (68). (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (5) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 11 starts). (6) Trip note from last race: Chased;eased;walked. (7) 0 wins from post 1 in 3 recent starts. (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.3 pts: [51, 70, 55, 66, 72]) — unpredictable performer. (9) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 1 (6/6) Win Prob: 15.1% Value Score: 4.11 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 7.74 Fair Odds: 7.76 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). (3) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Gate Work, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.
Mod1(W): 70 (3/6) Mod2(W): 61 (3/6) Mod3(W): 62 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 28 (5/6) Mod2-LS: 67 (3/6) Mod3-LS: 23 (5/6) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 79.1% Value Score: 2.66 ★ ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -14.93 Fair Odds: 5.75 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (64) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (3) Strong speed 2 back (64), modest dip last out (54) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Form Reversal, Hot Jockey.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 47 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Speed average (59) well below field median (68). (4) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (5) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (6) Trip note from last race: Outside;4p;no bid. (7) First start at GP — never raced here before (last seen at: TAM, GP).
Mod1(W): 8 (6/6) Mod2(W): 10 (6/6) Mod3(W): 17 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 34 (4/6) Mod2-LS: 11 (6/6) Mod3-LS: 10 (6/6) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 19.8% Value Score: 5.37 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 8.48 Fair Odds: 7.22 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | B | C |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 146-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Big last-race effort (73) — 11 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (56%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Career-best figure (81) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 146 days. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Trck 3w;lost nod 2nd. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 16.6 pts: [73, 39, 72, 75, 81]) — unpredictable performer. (6) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 52 (4/6) Mod2(W): 50 (4/6) Mod3(W): 51 (4/6) Mod1-LS: 8 (6/6) Mod2-LS: 51 (4/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod4(Form): 45 (4/6) Win Prob: 41.3% Value Score: 3.74 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 3.97 Fair Odds: 5.66 (11/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 54-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (84) well above field median (68). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). (4) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 94 vs field 68). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Consistent workout spacing (6, 6 days) — disciplined training regimen. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 54 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) First time at today's distance. (4) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (5) Today's distance is shorter than any previous start. (6) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (7) Trip note from last race: Chase;svd gnd;kept on.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 46 (4/6) Mod4(Form): 99 (2/6) Win Prob: 81% Value Score: 2.93 ★ ML: 1.80 (9/5) Overlay %: -9.50 Fair Odds: 4.52 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 235-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Equipment change today (code: 2). (3) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (4) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Consistent workout spacing (6, 6 days) — disciplined training regimen. (7) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (8) Returning from 235-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Bullet Workout, Sharp Return Workout, Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Gate Work, Sharp Workout Pattern, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 235 days. (2) Speed average (57) well below field median (68). (3) First time at today's distance. (4) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (5) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (6) Trip note from last race: Took back;no rally.
Mod1(W): 18 (5/6) Mod2(W): 24 (5/6) Mod3(W): 27 (5/6) Mod1-LS: 66 (2/6) Mod2-LS: 29 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 62 (3/6) Mod4(Form): 26 (5/6) Win Prob: 31.4% Value Score: 4.47 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 5.25 Fair Odds: 7.14 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 76-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (76) well above field median (68). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 77 vs field 68). (5) Trainer 'JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer, Stable on Fire, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 76 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (5) Trip note from last race: Pace 2p; retreated. (6) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (7) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 74 (2/6) Mod2(W): 73 (2/6) Mod3(W): 78 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 50 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 79 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 83 (2/6) Mod4(Form): 78 (3/6) Win Prob: 68.4% Value Score: 3.98 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.01 Fair Odds: 5.18 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (77) well above field median (72). (2) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 81 vs fast: 69). (3) Career-best speed figure (69) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (56%). (5) Track specialist — 8 wins from 30 starts here (27%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 73). (7) Has won at today's distance (1210 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Career-best figure (84) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Off-Track Preference, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Track Specialist, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Trip note from last race: Brsh;stalk3p;held show.
Mod1(W): 78 (2/7) Mod2(W): 74 (2/7) Mod3(W): 54 (3/7) Mod1-LS: 54 (4/7) Mod2-LS: 70 (2/7) Mod3-LS: 48 (3/7) Mod4(Form): 84 (2/7) Win Prob: 69.1% Value Score: 3.56 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.78 Fair Odds: 5.84 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | B |
| Route FPS | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (64) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 73). (3) Has won at today's distance (1210 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Career-best figure (82) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 12 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 47 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Chased ins-2p;no kick. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 47 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 26 (6/7) Mod2(W): 36 (6/7) Mod3(W): 21 (6/7) Mod1-LS: 94 (2/7) Mod2-LS: 34 (6/7) Mod3-LS: 35 (4/7) Mod4(Form): 27 (6/7) Win Prob: 34.2% Value Score: 4.85 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 3.64 Fair Odds: 8.35 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | B | A |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Has won at today's distance (1210 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (2) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (3) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (114 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (4) Career-best figure (86) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 9 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($6,250 → $10,000). (2) Trip note from last race: 3wd bid; weakened. (3) Rising in class ($6,250 → $10,000) after finishing 5 last out — double negative. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.4 pts: [70, 67, 77, 50, 86]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 33 (5/7) Mod2(W): 38 (5/7) Mod3(W): 37 (5/7) Mod1-LS: 88 (3/7) Mod2-LS: 38 (5/7) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 27 (5/7) Win Prob: 31.6% Value Score: 4.47 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 5.10 Fair Odds: 7.23 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 7 starts (43%). (2) Big last-race effort (84) — 11 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (4) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 94 vs field 90). (6) Has won at today's distance (1210 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Speed improved +5 pts then +5 pts in last 2 starts (74 → 79 → 84) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'S']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Form Surge, Win Streak Momentum, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Early Speed Edge.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Brshd; in command. (4) Last race was career-best speed (84) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.0 pts: [84, 79, 74, 65, 63]) — unpredictable performer. (7) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (74 → 79 → 84) and last race speed is well above career average (73) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/7) Mod2(W): 100 (1/7) Mod3(W): 100 (1/7) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/7) Win Prob: 77.8% Value Score: 2.81 ★ ML: 1.80 (9/5) Overlay %: -12.33 Fair Odds: 5.50 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (3) Track specialist — 3 wins from 5 starts here (60%). (4) Fourth race back from a 74-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Switching turf-to-dirt with a strong turf pedigree rating (104) — pedigree suggests main-track improvement is likely. (6) Has won at today's distance (1210 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Trainer 'JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Career-best figure (84) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 7 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Stable on Fire, Hidden Figure, Track Specialist, Classic Fourth Race Pattern, Pedigree-Backed Switch.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Switching from turf to dirt today. (4) Trip note from last race: Ins;3w3/16;weakened. (5) Last race was career-best speed (74) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.5 pts: [74, 77, 55, 83, 75]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 67 (3/7) Mod2(W): 62 (3/7) Mod3(W): 67 (2/7) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 60 (3/7) Mod3-LS: 23 (6/7) Mod4(Form): 79 (3/7) Win Prob: 67.7% Value Score: 3.92 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.32 Fair Odds: 6.74 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | D | C |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). (2) Has won at today's distance (1210 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (116 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Btwn; pinched 7/16. (3) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.9 pts: [56, 74, 71, 79, 59]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 1 (7/7) Mod2(W): 1 (7/7) Mod3(W): 11 (7/7) Mod1-LS: 9 (6/7) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 34 (5/7) Mod4(Form): 0 (7/7) Win Prob: 16.3% Value Score: 4.42 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 6.76 Fair Odds: 8.56 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (2) Returning from 33-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (3) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Sharp Return Workout, Closer in Pace Duel, Won Here Before.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (3) Finish positions worsening over last 4 starts. (4) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (5) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (6) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (7) Trip note from last race: Bumped start; 4wd. (8) No workout in last 30 days despite 33 days since last race. (9) Post 7 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (10) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.9 pts: [55, 62, 76, 77, 80]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 3 (7/7) Mod2-LS: 2 (7/7) Mod3-LS: 3 (7/7) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 13.7% Value Score: 3.69 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 7.12 Fair Odds: 8.25 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | F | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (54%). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 73). (3) Strong speed 2 back (83), modest dip last out (78) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (4) Has won at today's distance (1210 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Setld; tip in;fin well. (3) Last race was career-best speed (78) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (5) Post 8 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
Mod1(W): 61 (4/7) Mod2(W): 57 (4/7) Mod3(W): 44 (4/7) Mod1-LS: 14 (5/7) Mod2-LS: 58 (4/7) Mod3-LS: 52 (2/7) Mod4(Form): 68 (4/7) Win Prob: 51.7% Value Score: 3.66 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.18 Fair Odds: 6.73 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | F | C |
| Route FPS | F | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (2) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 122 lbs). (3) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 109 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Weight Advantage, First-Time Turf with Pedigree.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First time at today's distance. (2) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (3) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (4) Has never raced on turf surface. (5) Switching from dirt to turf today. (6) Trip note from last race: Tracked ins;swung3w;wk.
Mod1(W): 44 (8/9) Mod2(W): 32 (8/9) Mod3(W): 40 (8/9) Mod1-LS: 70 (4/9) Mod2-LS: 27 (8/9) Mod3-LS: 31 (9/9) Mod4(Form): 25 (8/9) Win Prob: 16.5% Value Score: 3.44 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 4.40 Fair Odds: 9.87 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 42-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) In the money in last 5 consecutive starts. (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Returning from 42-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 106 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Return Workout, First-Time Turf with Pedigree.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 42 days. (2) Speed average (63) well below field median (71). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (5) Has never raced on turf surface. (6) Switching from dirt to turf today. (7) Trip note from last race: Rail bid;grudgiingly. (8) Last race was career-best speed (72) — bounce risk after peak effort. (9) First start at GP — never raced here before (last seen at: CNL, TAM).
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 5.5% Value Score: 2.24 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 4.89 Fair Odds: 12.57 (12/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (50%). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (4) Averages 73.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 37.0 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (63) well below field median (71). (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 4p;5w upper;lost bob. (5) Last race was career-best speed (77) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) Stepping up to $50,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $35,000). (7) 0 wins from 6 starts on turf in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 92 (3/9) Mod2(W): 87 (3/9) Mod3(W): 96 (2/9) Mod1-LS: 41 (8/9) Mod2-LS: 85 (3/9) Mod3-LS: 47 (6/9) Mod4(Form): 94 (2/9) Win Prob: 60.5% Value Score: 3.15 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -7.46 Fair Odds: 7.51 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | D |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (77) well above field median (71). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Trainer 'JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (2) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (3) Trip note from last race: Bmp st;ins trip;missed.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/9) Mod2(W): 100 (1/9) Mod3(W): 92 (4/9) Mod1-LS: 72 (3/9) Mod2-LS: 97 (2/9) Mod3-LS: 55 (5/9) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/9) Win Prob: 72.7% Value Score: 3.31 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -9.89 Fair Odds: 7.30 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (70) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 90 vs field 85). (3) Fourth race back from a 56-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Strong speed 2 back (76), modest dip last out (71) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Form Reversal, Troubled Trip Comeback, Early Speed Edge, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (5) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (6) Switching from dirt to turf today. (7) Trip note from last race: Gained ins; show.
Mod1(W): 54 (6/9) Mod2(W): 54 (6/9) Mod3(W): 62 (6/9) Mod1-LS: 83 (2/9) Mod2-LS: 56 (6/9) Mod3-LS: 63 (3/9) Mod4(Form): 34 (7/9) Win Prob: 37.3% Value Score: 6.31 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 3.68 Fair Odds: 9.43 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (77) well above field median (71). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 82 vs field 75). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Fourth race back from a 53-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Career-best figure (81) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (3) Switching from dirt to turf today. (4) Trip note from last race: Bmpd st;bid4w;led;miss.
Mod1(W): 75 (5/9) Mod2(W): 76 (4/9) Mod3(W): 74 (5/9) Mod1-LS: 27 (9/9) Mod2-LS: 75 (4/9) Mod3-LS: 58 (4/9) Mod4(Form): 58 (4/9) Win Prob: 41.4% Value Score: 3.77 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: -1.39 Fair Odds: 9.43 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (54%). (2) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 85). (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Bullet Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Early Speed Edge.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($25,000 → $50,000). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 3 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Rail; pace; weakened. (6) Rising in class ($25,000 → $50,000) after finishing 3 last out — double negative. (7) Stepping up to $50,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $25,000).
Mod1(W): 88 (4/9) Mod2(W): 75 (5/9) Mod3(W): 94 (3/9) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod2-LS: 73 (5/9) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod4(Form): 39 (6/9) Win Prob: 39.1% Value Score: 5.6 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 4.30 Fair Odds: 7.87 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 35-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Big last-race effort (74) — 10 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). (4) Fourth race back from a 58-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 35 days. (2) Rising in class today ($35,000 → $50,000). (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (5) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (6) Switching from dirt to turf today. (7) Trip note from last race: 3p; duel ins; bmp late. (8) Outside post (8) in a large field of 10 horses.
Mod1(W): 49 (7/9) Mod2(W): 51 (7/9) Mod3(W): 54 (7/9) Mod1-LS: 57 (5/9) Mod2-LS: 47 (7/9) Mod3-LS: 40 (7/9) Mod4(Form): 39 (5/9) Win Prob: 24.6% Value Score: 3.52 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 2.41 Fair Odds: 9.64 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (66) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 106 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, First-Time Turf with Pedigree.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (66) well below field median (71). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (5) Has never raced on turf surface. (6) Switching from dirt to turf today. (7) Trip note from last race: Svd gnd;no bid. (8) Outside post (9) in a large field of 10 horses. (9) No workout in last 30 days despite 27 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 23 (9/9) Mod2(W): 9 (9/9) Mod3(W): 31 (9/9) Mod1-LS: 55 (6/9) Mod2-LS: 9 (9/9) Mod3-LS: 35 (8/9) Mod4(Form): 11 (9/9) Win Prob: 14.1% Value Score: 3.85 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 4.66 Fair Odds: 11.03 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 35-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Strong speed 2 back (75), modest dip last out (65) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Trainer "D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO" has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Form Reversal, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 35 days. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (5) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (6) Switching from dirt to turf today. (7) Trip note from last race: Chased 5 wide;weakened. (8) Outside post (10) in a large field of 10 horses.
Mod1(W): 100 (2/9) Mod2(W): 97 (2/9) Mod3(W): 100 (1/9) Mod1-LS: 51 (7/9) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod3-LS: 65 (2/9) Mod4(Form): 90 (3/9) Win Prob: 60.6% Value Score: 3.55 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.61 Fair Odds: 7.72 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). (2) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Career-best figure (85) buried in races 4–10 back — 20 pts above race median and 24 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (4) Averages 67.3 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 58.7 in other configs (7 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Return to Proven Setup, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($8,000 → $12,500). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Trip note from last race: Btwn;4p turn;stopped. (5) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($16,000 → $12,500 → $8,000). (6) Rising in class ($8,000 → $12,500) after finishing 9 last out — double negative.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 24 (6/6) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 73 (2/6) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 16.8% Value Score: 4.52 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 8.47 Fair Odds: 7.21 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($17,500 → $12,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (3) Big last-race effort (70) — 8 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (56%). (5) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (121 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Class Drop, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Trip note from last race: Ran in spots;lost crop. (5) Last race was career-best speed (70) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 71 (2/6) Mod2(W): 83 (3/6) Mod3(W): 85 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 32 (5/6) Mod2-LS: 85 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 77 (3/6) Win Prob: 66.5% Value Score: 3.83 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.92 Fair Odds: 5.48 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (72) — 10 pts above recent average. (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 74 vs field 70). (3) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($8,000 → $12,500). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (5) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (6) Trip note from last race: Svgnd;duel;gv wy late. (7) Consistently breaks behind post position (4 of last 5 starts). (8) Last race was career-best speed (72) — bounce risk after peak effort. (9) No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 67 (3/6) Mod2(W): 84 (2/6) Mod3(W): 75 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 40 (4/6) Mod2-LS: 84 (3/6) Mod3-LS: 5 (6/6) Mod4(Form): 90 (2/6) Win Prob: 68.2% Value Score: 3.06 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.99 Fair Odds: 5.53 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 84 vs fast: 76). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Career-best figure (76) buried in races 4–10 back — 11 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Off-Track Preference, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 42 days. (2) Rising in class today ($8,000 → $12,500). (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Stalk4w;3p turn;wknd. (5) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (6) Rising in class ($8,000 → $12,500) after finishing 4 last out — double negative. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.8 pts: [69, 70, 50, 65, 76]) — unpredictable performer. (8) 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 8 (6/6) Mod2(W): 22 (6/6) Mod3(W): 24 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (2/6) Mod2-LS: 19 (6/6) Mod3-LS: 62 (3/6) Mod4(Form): 20 (6/6) Win Prob: 17.5% Value Score: 2.92 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 6.14 Fair Odds: 7.23 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($17,500 → $12,500). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 9 starts (33%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). (4) Strong speed 2 back (69), modest dip last out (64) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (121 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (7) Career-best figure (76) buried in races 4–10 back — 11 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure, Class Drop, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (59) well below field median (65). (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Never threatened.
Mod1(W): 32 (5/6) Mod2(W): 44 (5/6) Mod3(W): 48 (5/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 43 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod4(Form): 25 (5/6) Win Prob: 33.7% Value Score: 4.75 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 6.57 Fair Odds: 6.32 (11/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 67 vs fast: 60). (2) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 77 vs field 70). (4) Strong speed 2 back (74), modest dip last out (67) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (119 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Off-Track Preference, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (60) well below field median (65). (3) Trip note from last race: Led4p; vied turn;clear. (4) Last race was career-best speed (67) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.9 pts: [67, 74, 57, 63, 51]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 50 (4/6) Mod2(W): 54 (4/6) Mod3(W): 65 (4/6) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 61 (4/6) Mod3-LS: 24 (5/6) Mod4(Form): 72 (4/6) Win Prob: 48.9% Value Score: 3.13 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.27 Fair Odds: 5.97 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | D |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($17,500 → $12,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (38%). (3) Strong speed 2 back (72), modest dip last out (63) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (4) Switching turf-to-dirt with a strong turf pedigree rating (101) — pedigree suggests main-track improvement is likely. (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Career-best figure (78) buried in races 4–10 back — 13 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Class Drop, Pedigree-Backed Switch.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Switching from turf to dirt today. (3) Trip note from last race: 3-4p;bid3/8;flatten.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 60 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 60 (4/6) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 75.7% Value Score: 2.71 ★ ML: 1.80 (9/5) Overlay %: -10.99 Fair Odds: 4.92 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 48-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Career-best speed figure (72) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (4) Track specialist — 3 wins from 6 starts here (50%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 96 vs field 92). (6) Strong speed 2 back (83), modest dip last out (76) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Dropping in class ($20,000 vs last $25,000) after a 48-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (9) Returning from 48-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (10) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (11) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (12) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop After Rest, Form Reversal, Bullet Workout, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Sharp Return Workout, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Early Speed Edge.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 48 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Rail duel; weakened.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 44 (6/8) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 21.9% Value Score: 5.94 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 5.24 Fair Odds: 10.20 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | A |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 655-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Equipment change today (code: 2). (3) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (4) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (5) Track specialist — 2 wins from 6 starts here (33%). (6) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (7) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Returning from 655-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (9) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Averages 81.2 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 62.5 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (12) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Bullet Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup, Sharp Return Workout, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Sharp Workout Pattern, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 655 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: 2p; left lead; nailed. (4) Last race was career-best speed (89) — bounce risk after peak effort.
Mod1(W): 4 (8/8) Mod2(W): 24 (7/8) Mod3(W): 23 (7/8) Mod1-LS: 3 (8/8) Mod2-LS: 24 (7/8) Mod3-LS: 14 (8/8) Mod4(Form): 37 (7/8) Win Prob: 15.6% Value Score: 1.81 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 0.49 Fair Odds: 9.98 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | D | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | B |
| Turf Speed | D | A |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | F | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) In the money in last 4 consecutive starts. (2) Track specialist — 5 wins from 20 starts here (25%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 84 vs field 76). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Won Here Before, Track Specialist, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: 2p turn; belatedly ins. (2) No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 64 (5/8) Mod2(W): 59 (5/8) Mod3(W): 50 (5/8) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 65 (6/8) Mod3-LS: 24 (7/8) Mod4(Form): 53 (5/8) Win Prob: 37% Value Score: 3.35 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 0.56 Fair Odds: 7.60 (7/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | F | B |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | D | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | F | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | B |
| Route FPS | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | F | B |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 67-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (86) well above field median (81). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (4) In the money in last 10 consecutive starts. (5) Track specialist — 9 wins from 19 starts here (47%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 83 vs field 76). (7) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Returning from 67-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (9) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Career-best figure (92) buried in races 4–10 back — 11 pts above race median and 7 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (11) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (12) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Consistent In-The-Money, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Sharp Return Workout, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 67 days. (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Trip note from last race: Bump st; rail duel. (5) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($50,000 → $25,000 → $20,000).
Mod1(W): 84 (4/8) Mod2(W): 75 (3/8) Mod3(W): 64 (3/8) Mod1-LS: 30 (7/8) Mod2-LS: 71 (4/8) Mod3-LS: 77 (3/8) Mod4(Form): 53 (4/8) Win Prob: 43.3% Value Score: 3.91 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 1.31 Fair Odds: 7.08 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 41-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Big last-race effort (86) — 10 pts above recent average. (3) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (4) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (5) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Returning from 41-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Averages 78.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 45.5 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Consistent In-The-Money, Won at This Distance, Bullet Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup, Sharp Return Workout.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 41 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Speed average (69) well below field median (81). (4) Trip note from last race: Bmp brk;svgnd;cght1/8. (5) Last race was career-best speed (86) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 21.1 pts: [86, 80, 81, 66, 34]) — unpredictable performer. (7) First start at GP — never raced here before (last seen at: TAM).
Mod1(W): 20 (7/8) Mod2(W): 7 (8/8) Mod3(W): 14 (8/8) Mod1-LS: 91 (2/8) Mod2-LS: 13 (8/8) Mod3-LS: 31 (6/8) Mod4(Form): 13 (8/8) Win Prob: 19.9% Value Score: 4.11 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 4.71 Fair Odds: 9.47 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | F | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | F | C |
| Distance Speed | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | B |
| Route FPS | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (48%). (2) Track specialist — 4 wins from 11 starts here (36%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 98 vs field 92). (4) Fourth race back from a 72-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Switching turf-to-dirt with a strong turf pedigree rating (106) — pedigree suggests main-track improvement is likely. (6) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 122 lbs). (9) Trainer "D'ANGELO JOSE FRANCISCO" has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Stable on Fire, Early Speed Edge, Weight Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern, Pedigree-Backed Switch.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Switching from turf to dirt today. (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (6 of 10 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Chase;2p;kept on. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.6 pts: [87, 84, 65, 89, 83]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 54 (6/8) Mod2(W): 48 (6/8) Mod3(W): 35 (6/8) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/8) Mod2-LS: 65 (5/8) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/8) Mod4(Form): 38 (6/8) Win Prob: 40.9% Value Score: 4.76 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 1.65 Fair Odds: 8.74 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | B | A |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 7 starts (29%). (2) Career-best speed figure (69) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (4) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (5) Track specialist — 6 wins from 11 starts here (55%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 80 vs field 76). (7) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Career-best figure (93) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Win Streak Momentum, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Track Specialist, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Ins;2w3/16;held sway. (3) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (4) Post 7 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
Mod1(W): 100 (2/8) Mod2(W): 100 (1/8) Mod3(W): 100 (1/8) Mod1-LS: 89 (3/8) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/8) Mod3-LS: 74 (4/8) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/8) Win Prob: 62.3% Value Score: 3.22 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -6.22 Fair Odds: 6.60 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | B | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | D | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | A |
| Route FPS | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 32-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Career-best speed figure (79) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (56%). (4) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Dropping in class ($20,000 vs last $25,000) after a 32-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (6) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop After Rest, Won at This Distance, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 32 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Failed to menace; 2wd. (4) Post 8 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
Mod1(W): 87 (3/8) Mod2(W): 69 (4/8) Mod3(W): 58 (4/8) Mod1-LS: 45 (5/8) Mod2-LS: 72 (3/8) Mod3-LS: 54 (5/8) Mod4(Form): 93 (2/8) Win Prob: 61.7% Value Score: 3.58 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.02 Fair Odds: 7.20 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | F | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | D | A |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | F | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | B |
| Route FPS | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (86) well above field median (81). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (48%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 7 starts (43%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). (5) Track specialist — 5 wins from 19 starts here (26%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 84 vs field 76). (7) Fourth race back from a 84-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (8) Has won at today's distance (1100 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (9) Has won at GP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Career-best figure (92) buried in races 4–10 back — 11 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (11) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'L', 'S', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (12) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Track Specialist, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Ins;3w upper;fin well. (3) Post 9 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/8) Mod2(W): 94 (2/8) Mod3(W): 93 (2/8) Mod1-LS: 72 (4/8) Mod2-LS: 96 (2/8) Mod3-LS: 85 (2/8) Mod4(Form): 86 (3/8) Win Prob: 65.3% Value Score: 4.21 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.73 Fair Odds: 6.83 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | A |
| Route FPS | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 49 days. (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Unproven on turf surface (1 start). (4) Switching from dirt to turf today. (5) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (6) Trip note from last race: 2p-inside;wknd lane. (7) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (8) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($50,000 → $35,000 → $17,500).
Mod1(W): 89 (3/9) Mod2(W): 87 (3/9) Mod3(W): 99 (3/9) Mod1-LS: 56 (7/9) Mod2-LS: 85 (3/9) Mod3-LS: 27 (8/9) Mod4(Form): 92 (2/9) Win Prob: 50.7% Value Score: 2.94 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.57 Fair Odds: 7.56 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (54%). (2) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (3) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (4) Consistent workout spacing (6, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen. (5) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 110 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Bullet Workout, Hot Trainer, First-Time Turf with Pedigree, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on turf surface.
Mod1(W): 38 (9/9) Mod2(W): 36 (8/9) Mod3(W): 51 (8/9) Mod1-LS: 71 (6/9) Mod2-LS: 34 (7/9) Mod3-LS: 72 (4/9) Mod4(Form): 42 (6/9) Win Prob: 33.7% Value Score: 4.78 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 2.21 Fair Odds: 9.80 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (56%). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 74 vs field 69). (3) Strong speed 2 back (73), modest dip last out (65) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Form Reversal, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Chase;2p2nd;kept on. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. (6) 0 wins from 5 starts on turf in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 73 (5/9) Mod2(W): 75 (4/9) Mod3(W): 81 (4/9) Mod1-LS: 49 (8/9) Mod2-LS: 74 (4/9) Mod3-LS: 12 (9/9) Mod4(Form): 62 (5/9) Win Prob: 39.9% Value Score: 3.6 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 0.24 Fair Odds: 7.83 (7/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | D |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 69). (2) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (3) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 104 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, First-Time Turf with Pedigree.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($12,500 → $17,500). (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (4) Has never raced on turf surface. (5) Switching from dirt to turf today. (6) Trip note from last race: Trailed; passed foes. (7) Rising in class ($12,500 → $17,500) after finishing 4 last out — double negative. (8) Stepping up to $17,500 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $12,500).
Mod1(W): 40 (7/9) Mod2(W): 30 (9/9) Mod3(W): 47 (9/9) Mod1-LS: 90 (2/9) Mod2-LS: 29 (9/9) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod4(Form): 29 (9/9) Win Prob: 19.4% Value Score: 4 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 4.59 Fair Odds: 9.60 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | D |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($25,000 → $17,500). (2) Dropping in class ($17,500 vs last $25,000) after a 55-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (3) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'L', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 55 days. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 2-3w; bid; flatten btw. (5) Consistently runs wide at the first call (4 of last 5 starts). (6) 0 wins from 5 starts on turf in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 79 (4/9) Mod2(W): 72 (5/9) Mod3(W): 81 (5/9) Mod1-LS: 45 (9/9) Mod2-LS: 71 (5/9) Mod3-LS: 41 (7/9) Mod4(Form): 74 (4/9) Win Prob: 37.1% Value Score: 2.87 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -2.21 Fair Odds: 8.32 (7/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | D |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (2) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 111 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (2) Has never raced on turf surface. (3) Switching from dirt to turf today. (4) Trip note from last race: Stalk2p; faded.
Mod1(W): 38 (8/9) Mod2(W): 36 (7/9) Mod3(W): 58 (7/9) Mod1-LS: 88 (3/9) Mod2-LS: 33 (8/9) Mod3-LS: 73 (3/9) Mod4(Form): 29 (8/9) Win Prob: 18.2% Value Score: 3.75 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 4.40 Fair Odds: 9.81 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($50,000 → $17,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 93 vs field 81). (5) Trainer 'JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Stable on Fire, Early Speed Edge, Class Drop.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First time at today's distance. (2) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (3) Unproven on turf surface (2 starts). (4) Switching from dirt to turf today. (5) Trip note from last race: Track btw; retreat1/4.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/9) Mod2(W): 96 (2/9) Mod3(W): 100 (2/9) Mod1-LS: 87 (4/9) Mod2-LS: 95 (2/9) Mod3-LS: 97 (2/9) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/9) Win Prob: 67.6% Value Score: 3.49 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -9.29 Fair Odds: 8.89 (8/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 40-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (56%). (3) Equipment change today (code: 2). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (5) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 84 vs field 69). (7) Consistent workout spacing (6, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen. (8) First career start on turf with a strong turf pedigree rating of 112 — bred for the surface; first-timers with strong pedigree win at a price. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Late Kick Advantage, First-Time Turf with Pedigree, Sharp Workout Pattern, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 40 days. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (4) Has never raced on turf surface. (5) Switching from dirt to turf today. (6) Trip note from last race: Off slow; trailed ins. (7) Outside post (8) in a large field of 10 horses.
Mod1(W): 98 (2/9) Mod2(W): 100 (1/9) Mod3(W): 100 (1/9) Mod1-LS: 86 (5/9) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod3-LS: 68 (5/9) Mod4(Form): 82 (3/9) Win Prob: 52.1% Value Score: 3.69 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.97 Fair Odds: 7.98 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (68) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Equipment change today (code: 1). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 75 vs field 69). (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($12,500 → $17,500). (2) Switching from dirt to turf today. (3) Trip note from last race: Cued4w;up2nd;no match. (4) Outside post (9) in a large field of 10 horses. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (6) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($25,000 → $17,500 → $12,500). (7) 0 wins from 5 starts on turf in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 53 (6/9) Mod2(W): 59 (6/9) Mod3(W): 70 (6/9) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod2-LS: 54 (6/9) Mod3-LS: 61 (6/9) Mod4(Form): 39 (7/9) Win Prob: 24.9% Value Score: 4.17 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 3.67 Fair Odds: 9.38 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. (2) Career-best speed figure (41) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Equipment change today (code: 1). (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Improving Finisher, Troubled Trip Comeback, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Speed average (58) well below field median (67). (3) Unproven on turf surface (2 starts). (4) Switching from dirt to turf today. (5) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (6) Trip note from last race: Slow st; adv3w; wknd. (7) Outside post (10) in a large field of 10 horses. (8) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 6.4% Value Score: 2.55 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 4.94 Fair Odds: 12.44 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | D |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | D |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
TL;DR
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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Race Day Overview — Gulfstream Park, April 23, 2026
The curtain is coming down on the spring racing season in South Florida, and Gulfstream Park sends out a full ten-race card on this Thursday afternoon. The meet has been winding down in recent weeks as attention shifts north toward Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby on May 2, but Gulfstream remains one of the most competitive mid-week venues in North America. Today's ten-race card features a blend of maiden, claiming, allowance, and optional claiming company spread across both the main track and the turf course. Purses range from $29,000 on the low end in the claiming ranks up to $68,000 for the maiden special weight sprint in Race 3.
From a news and context standpoint, The Puma — a Gulfstream-based Derby contender trained by Gustavo Delgado with Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano aboard — has been the headline horse at this facility in recent weeks. His final pre-Derby work at Gulfstream on April 18 generated considerable buzz, described as a strong, sharp move that had connections feeling confident ahead of May 2. That buzz has elevated the profile of Gulfstream's backstretch operation, and several Delgado-barn runners are sprinkled through today's card. Commandment leads the Kentucky Derby points standings heading into Derby week. Chief Wallabee officially moved into the body of the Derby field following the scratch of Ottinho. So Happy arrived in Kentucky from California, further shaping the full Derby picture. None of these horses run today, but their preparation adds context to the overall health and activity level of the Gulfstream stable area this week.
Today's card includes a meaningful optional claiming race on the turf in Race 2, a well-constructed maiden special weight for fillies and mares in Race 3, and a competitive sprint optional claiming in Race 7. The Pick 5 and other multi-race exotics will be highlighted in the wagering section below.
Weather and Track Conditions
Gulfstream Park sits in Hallandale Beach on Florida's southeast coast, where late April brings warm, humid conditions with the ever-present threat of afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast for Thursday, April 23 calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit. Humidity levels will be elevated, typical for this time of year. There is a moderate chance of scattered afternoon showers developing, potentially arriving during the middle to late portion of the card — roughly the Race 6 through Race 8 window. Bettors should monitor conditions race by race, as a brief but heavy shower can alter surface speed at Gulfstream quickly.
The main track at Gulfstream has been rated fast in recent days, and if the early races avoid precipitation, expect a fast or good main track through the mid-card. Gulfstream's main track tends to play to a slight speed bias when conditions are dry and the track is at its firmest. The turf course has been in excellent condition throughout the spring meet, currently rated firm. Should showers arrive mid-card, the turf course could soften to good by the later turf races, which would slightly diminish the advantage of horses that require firm going.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Gulfstream Park's main track has historically favored speed, particularly at sprint distances. Horses that can get to the lead or press from just off the pace in the first call have a statistical advantage, especially when the track is fast. Over the final weeks of the spring meet, reports indicate the inside path has been viable but not dominant — horses breaking from posts 1 through 3 in sprints have won their share, but outside posts have also performed well, suggesting a relatively neutral bias rather than a pronounced rail or speed bias.
At route distances on the main track, pace has been more of a factor. Horses that rate just off the early fractions and have something left turning for home have been rewarded. The stretch at Gulfstream is long enough that closers get their opportunity, but a wire-to-wire winner at 1 and 3/16 miles or longer on the main track is never a shock.
On the turf course, the inside path has been the premium real estate, as it is at virtually every grass course. Rail-drawn horses with tactical speed have benefited, and pure closers from wide posts have faced a tougher assignment when the turf has been firm and the pace has been controlled. In today's turf events — Races 2, 5, and 8 — posts 1 through 4 carry a meaningful advantage over the widest outside draws.
At the sprint distance of 5.5 furlongs on the turf (Race 2 at 1,870 feet, which converts to approximately 5.5 furlongs), the run to the first turn is short, making early position critical. In those situations, gate speed and early foot become paramount, and wide posts face additional ground loss. Take note: Race 2 is listed as a turf race at 1,870 feet, which is approximately 5.5 furlongs around one turn on the grass. Similar considerations apply.
RACE 1 — Post (12:50) — 1870f | D | M | Md 17500 | BOF | Purse $31,000
This opening race is a maiden $17,500 claiming event for fillies and mares at approximately 5.5 furlongs on the main dirt track. This is the bread and butter of the bottom of the claiming ladder — horses trying to break their maiden while being offered for a price tag that indicates their connections have realistic appraisals of where they belong. The purse of $31,000 reflects the modest class level. The field of eight includes two co-favorites at 2-1 morning line odds and a legitimate spread of contenders.
Race 1
Pace Analysis
Two horses figure to be the primary pace setters in this one. Turkish Flame (7) has the look of a front-running type, and Sister Slew (1) projects as another that wants to get out and go. If both fire out of the gate, the early fractions could be pressured, which would set up something of a pace duel. In maiden claimers at this level, pace battles often produce tired front-runners in the stretch. A horse with enough tactical speed to sit just off the lead without being burned by a hot pace would have an excellent opportunity to sweep past. Tiger Eye Pearl (3) and Mischievous Scout (2) are the logical beneficiaries if the two co-favorites hook up early.
Key Contenders
Sister Slew (1), trained by Patrick Biancone and ridden by Jose Antonio Gomez, opens as the co-morning line favorite at 2-1. Biancone is a respected conditioner who has enjoyed considerable success at Gulfstream, and his barn has been active and productive during the spring meet. The inside post is advantageous in a sprint, and Gomez knows this track. Sister Slew's breeding and connections suggest she has enough talent to break her maiden at this level, and the rail draw gives her the cleanest path to the lead if she wants it.
Turkish Flame (7), the other 2-1 morning line choice, is trained by Daniel Hurtak and will be handled by Miguel Angel Vasquez. Vasquez is one of the more reliable mid-level riders at this circuit, and Hurtak sends out runners with reasonable preparation. Turkish Flame from post 7 will need to secure position quickly to avoid getting shuffled back on the first turn. The outside post is the least ideal in a sprint maiden claimer, but if Turkish Flame has enough gate speed to find a comfortable spot, the talent level indicated by the morning line makes her a serious threat.
Secondary Choices
Tiger Eye Pearl (3), trained by J. Kent Sweezey with JG Torrealba aboard at 4-1, is the third choice and deserves careful consideration. A post 3 draw is excellent in this format — close enough to the rail to save ground, far enough outside to avoid early traffic jams. If the two favorites tangle on the front end, Tiger Eye Pearl has the positioning to stalk and pounce. Sweezey has been quietly effective at Gulfstream, and this horse represents a legitimate value alternative to the two morning line favorties.
Mischievous Scout (2), for trainer Heather Smullen and jockey Yolber Torres at 6-1, occupies post 2 alongside Tiger Eye Pearl as a potential pace-stalker. The 6-1 morning line suggests the oddsmakers see her as a capable threat but not a frontline contender. Smullen's barn is smaller and lower-profile but has shown the ability to produce winners at this level.
Longshots
She's Trippin (4), at 12-1 for trainer Jeff Engler and jockey Heriberto Figueroa, offers limited appeal at first glance in a race this competitive at her end of the price spectrum. Coded Elegance (6), trained by Kathleen O'Connell with Diego Herrera up at 12-1, is another price horse that would need the race to set up perfectly. Queen Kwaina (5) at 20-1 for trainer Manuel Criollo and jockey Jonathan Ocasio is a longshot with little to recommend at morning line odds. Estrella (8), the other Hurtak-trained runner alongside Turkish Flame, opens at 20-1 with Edgar Perez in the irons — she is a secondary consideration at best, though the double-barn entry situation occasionally produces surprising results when one horse presses and the other rallies.
Betting Strategy
This is a difficult race to bet with conviction given the co-favorite situation and the modest field quality. The most logical approach is a win bet on Sister Slew (1) with the post advantage, while using Tiger Eye Pearl (3) underneath in exacta combinations. If the pace scenario unfolds with Sister Slew and Turkish Flame battling, Tiger Eye Pearl at 4-1 becomes a live exacta partner with meaningful overlay value.
Selections
Win: Sister Slew (1) Place: Tiger Eye Pearl (3) Show: Mischievous Scout (2)
Race 2 is an allowance event at approximately 5.5 furlongs on the turf, restricted to non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. This is the n/w1x condition, meaning these are horses that have broken their maiden but have not yet won at the allowance level. Turf sprints at Gulfstream at this trip are tactical affairs, and inside posts carry a premium. The field of seven is topped by two co-morning line favorites — LANDMAN FRIDAY (3) and THE BRIGADE (4) — both at 2-1.
Pace Analysis
This is a short turf sprint, and position out of the gate is critical. Mckellen (1) from the rail and Landman Friday (3) are the most likely candidates to set or press the pace. The Brigade (4) from post 4, trained by Mark Casse, may rate just behind the speed if he has the tactical versatility to do so. The question in a tight turf sprint field like this is whether the pace will be fast enough to set up closers. In a seven-horse field at this distance on the grass, the pace is often controlled and front-runners hold on. Horses that rate in the first two or three lengths of the lead will have the best chance.
Key Contenders
Landman Friday (3), trained by Steve Klesaris and ridden by Rajiv Maragh at 2-1, is a logical morning line choice. Klesaris is experienced on the South Florida circuit, and Maragh is a proven grass rider with excellent feel for turf sprint tactics. Post 3 on the turf is ideal — inside enough to save ground, outside enough to avoid the potential wall of horses breaking from posts 1 and 2. Landman Friday is positioned as the horse to beat on pace and class grounds.
The Brigade (4), trained by the high-percentage Mark Casse operation and ridden by Sonny Leon at 2-1, merits equal consideration. Casse's barn functions at a high level across multiple circuits, and his horses are almost always well-prepared when they step into allowance company. Leon is a competent jockey who has been reliable when given good horses. Post 4 on a short turf course is workable if The Brigade can find a comfortable spot near the pace early.
Secondary Choices
Mckellen (1), trained by Jose Francisco D'Angelo with Leonel Reyes at 4-1, has the coveted rail draw. In a short turf sprint, a clean break from post 1 with any early speed puts this horse in an excellent position to control the race. The 4-1 price reflects some skepticism about his ability to hold off better animals, but the post position alone makes him a legitimate contender worth including in exotics.
Souper Crunchy (6), trained by Michael Trombetta and ridden by Pascacio Lopez at 4-1, is another mid-price contender. Trombetta is a well-regarded conditioner, and Souper Crunchy from post 6 will need to overcome a wider draw, but talented horses find ways to win from off-posts in seven-horse fields.
Hands Of Time (2), for trainer Miguel Clement and jockey Samy Camacho at 6-1, is an interesting price. Post 2 is excellent on the turf, and if Hands of Time can track the rail horse through the early going, there is a path to the winner's circle.
Longshots
Peacethrustrength (5), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Micah Husbands at 10-1, is a barn that knows how to win but the price indicates some disadvantage on form. War World Rocks (7), at 20-1 for trainer Abraham Gardea and jockey Jorge Panaijo from the widest post, faces the toughest trip in the field and would need significant trouble in running to be a factor at any price.
Betting Strategy
The inside draw advantage makes Mckellen (1) an outstanding exotic inclusion at 4-1. The bet here is to use Landman Friday (3) on top in exacta with Mckellen (1) and The Brigade (4) underneath, while also reversing Mckellen (1) on top. The 4-1 price on a horse with the rail draw in a short turf sprint represents a genuine overlay.
Selections
Win: Landman Friday (3) Place: Mckellen (1) Show: The Brigade (4)
RACE 3 — Post (1:54) — 1540f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $68,000
This is the richest race on the card — a $68,000 maiden special weight sprint at approximately 7.5 furlongs for fillies and mares on the main dirt track. Maiden special weights at this purse level at Gulfstream attract genuinely talented horses, and the presence of two Brad Cox runners atop the morning line signals that this race will be taken seriously by top connections. Cox, based primarily in Kentucky and Louisiana, ships runners to Florida when he has legitimate prospects.
Race 3
Pace Analysis
With Delightfully (2) and Nahla (5) both posted at 2-1 by the morning line maker, the Cox double entry creates an interesting tactical dynamic. One or both may be speed types. Late Night Text (7), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and the third choice at 4-1, adds another dimension. If any of the top three have early foot, the pace could be honest, setting up a legitimate stretch run. Bon Vivant (4) from post 4 for trainer Antonio Sano at 6-1 is another horse worth watching on pace — Sano fillies often press the pace and hold form. A seven-length sprint at Gulfstream with honest fractions tends to reward horses that rate behind the speed and finish strongly.
Key Contenders
Delightfully (2), trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Samy Camacho at 2-1, is positioned as the top choice in a race that the Cox barn clearly targets. Cox routinely sends sharp, well-prepared maidens into these spots, and post 2 on the main track in a sprint is excellent. Camacho is the more experienced of the two jockeys handling Cox's fillies today, and his comfort level at Gulfstream Park adds value.
Nahla (5), the other Cox entry at 2-1 with Miguel Angel Vasquez, provides the barn with tactical options. If Delightfully wants to go to the lead, Nahla can sit just off or stalk from mid-pack. The Cox barn rarely enters two horses in the same race without having confidence in both, and the fact that they committed two jockeys of this caliber suggests these fillies are ready. Nahla (5) from post 5 may actually have a slight positioning advantage in a sprint of this distance — outside enough to avoid early traffic, inside enough to save ground on the turn.
Secondary Choices
Late Night Text (7), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Micah Husbands at 4-1, is the lone clear alternative to the Cox entry at a price that represents genuine value. Joseph's barn has been one of the most productive operations at Gulfstream Park throughout the spring meet, and he does not enter horses in $68,000 maiden specials without believing they can compete. Husbands, while not the most celebrated rider in this crop, is a capable journeyman who gets the most out of Joseph's horses.
Bon Vivant (4), trained by Antonio Sano and ridden by Pascacio Lopez at 6-1, warrants attention. Sano is one of the most accomplished trainers at this circuit and has won at the maiden special weight level with multiple fillies over the years. Post 4 is a clean draw, and if Bon Vivant has the ability that Sano believes, the 6-1 price represents a meaningful overlay against the Cox double.
Longshots
Divine Secrets (6), trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Sonny Leon at 10-1, is a notable price from a top barn. Casse entries should never be entirely dismissed, though the 10-1 morning line suggests the horse is at a disadvantage versus the top choices. Fidela (3), trained by Jorge Delgado and ridden by Edwin Gonzalez at 20-1, and Lunetta Jak (1), trained by Diley Dakin with Heriberto Figueroa at 20-1, are extreme longshots with little morning line support.
Betting Strategy
The Cox double entry creates a natural key situation. Bon Vivant (4) at 6-1 is the value play — use Nahla (5) and Delightfully (2) as the key horses on top, with Bon Vivant (4) and Late Night Text (7) filling out the bottom of exacta wheels. In trifectas, use both Cox horses in the top two slots and key Bon Vivant (4) and Late Night Text (7) in third.
Selections
Win: Nahla (5) Place: Delightfully (2) Show: Bon Vivant (4)
Race 4 is a $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares at approximately 6 furlongs on the main track. This is modest claiming company, and the form here will be among the most volatile on the card. Horses drop to this level for various reasons — some are being positioned to win, others are managing physical issues, and some trainers are using the claiming tag to attract a buyer. Sorting out which horses are pointed and ready is the central challenge.
Pace Analysis
Breezey Bella (4) at 2-1 is the morning line choice, and she projects as the likely pace-setter based on typical profiles at this level. Misprint (1) at 3-1 could also be involved early. May Mischief (5) and Windrush (8) at 4-1 each may have more tactical versatility. In a $10,000 sprint, the pace tends to be quick because cheap claimers often have more early speed than late kick. If the front-end goes fast, the closers like Windrush (8) and May Mischief (5) are positioned to pick up the pieces.
Key Contenders
Breezey Bella (4), trained by Carlos David and ridden by Edwin Gonzalez at 2-1, is the morning line favorite. Gonzalez is active at Gulfstream and comfortable at this level. Post 4 is workable in a sprint, and if Breezey Bella can get out cleanly and find the lead, she will be difficult to catch at this price in weak claiming company.
Misprint (1), trained by David Fawkes and ridden by Pascacio Lopez at 3-1, has the coveted rail draw and a jockey who has been among the busiest and most effective at the meet. If Misprint has any early speed to go with the inside post, the combination of factors makes her a genuine threat to wire this field.
Secondary Choices
May Mischief (5), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Micah Husbands at 4-1, again represents the Joseph barn's consistent presence. Joseph's ability to place horses effectively is well-established, and a horse at 4-1 in a $10,000 claiming sprint from this operation should be taken seriously. Windrush (8) at 4-1, trained by Luis Ramirez and ridden by Jesus Rios, is the alternative price horse. Post 8 in a sprint is the widest draw and will require Windrush to cover extra ground, but if the pace is honest and Windrush has enough closing kick, the outside post becomes less of an issue.
Longshots
Kid Mattie Matt (2) at 10-1 for trainer Victor Barboza Jr. and jockey Miguel Angel Vasquez, Don't Tell Tammo (3) at 10-1 for trainer Carlos David and jockey Kleiner Mejias, Stubold (6) at 20-1 for trainer Ronald Coy and jockey Yolber Torres, and Geaux Amy (7) at 20-1 for trainer Rohan Crichton and jockey Anthony Thomas round out the field. None of the 20-1 shots invite much confidence in a race where better-priced horses from established barns dominate the top of the form.
Betting Strategy
The rail in a sprint at this level is a real factor. Misprint (1) at 3-1 offers the best combination of post position and value relative to the morning line. A win bet on Misprint (1) with exactas combining Breezey Bella (4) and May Mischief (5) covers the likely outcome spectrum.
Selections
Win: Misprint (1) Place: Breezey Bella (4) Show: May Mischief (5)
Race 5 is a maiden $50,000 claiming race at approximately 8.5 furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares. This is a longer turf route for maidens, and stamina and ground-saving ability become paramount. Ten horses are entered, creating a full, complex field. The morning line is led by ZARAFA (4) at 2-1 and STRIKING FINALE (3) at 3-1, with PEARL OF PEARL (10) at 4-1 as the third choice.
Pace Analysis
Ten-horse maiden turf routes at Gulfstream often feature a modest early pace as horses settle into position around the first turn. Post positions 1 through 5 are clearly preferred at this distance on the turf, given the shorter run to the first bend. Zarafa (4) and Striking Finale (3) are in the ideal draw range. Pearl Of Pearl (10) from the far outside will face an immediate challenge to find a reasonable spot without burning excessive energy. Horses that rate quietly in the first half of this race and have enough class to accelerate in the final three furlongs will have the best chance. The key pace scenario is a slow-to-moderate early pace that sets up a stretch battle among the top three choices and whoever can save enough ground from a middle post.
Key Contenders
Zarafa (4), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Micah Husbands at 2-1, is the morning line favorite. Joseph's barn has been outstanding on the grass this spring, and Zarafa (4) from post 4 on the turf has an excellent setup. Husbands will be able to find a comfortable spot in traffic without needing to use up excessive energy early. The 2-1 price reflects genuine confidence from the morning line maker.
Striking Finale (3), trained by Robert DiBona and ridden by Diego Herrera at 3-1, is the alternative to the Joseph barn's top choice. Post 3 is also excellent on the turf, and if Striking Finale has the form to justify the morning line confidence, she should be stalking Zarafa into the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Pearl Of Pearl (10), trained by Jose Francisco D'Angelo and ridden by Samy Camacho at 4-1, is the third morning line choice despite the extreme outside draw. D'Angelo has been active and productive at this meet, and Camacho's turf experience should help mitigate the post disadvantage. The 4-1 price is somewhat compressed given the post, and Pearl of Pearl will need a perfect trip from the outside to overcome the ground loss.
Max (6), trained by Joseph Orseno and ridden by Edwin Gonzalez at 6-1, from post 6 is a workable mid-field draw and represents a potential overlay if the horse has been pointing to this race. Orseno is a solid journeyman trainer with turf knowledge.
Longshots
Role Play (7) at 10-1 for trainer Beau Chapman and jockey Miguel Angel Vasquez, Justice Prevails (8) at 10-1 for trainer J. Kent Sweezey and jockey JG Torrealba, Groovy N Gray (5) at 12-1 for trainer Tareq Moubarak and jockey J. Bravo, Gallega (9) at 20-1 for trainer Ramon Minguet and jockey Leonel Reyes, Serrania (1) at 15-1 for trainer Faustio Gutierrez and jockey Yolber Torres, and Runtown (2) at 30-1 for trainer Monica McGoey and jockey Jose Morelos are all significant price horses that would need the race to collapse around them to win. Serrania (1) from the rail on the turf at 15-1 actually deserves a mild mention — the post position alone gives that horse some intrinsic value that the price may not fully discount.
Betting Strategy
Zarafa (4) is the play, but the 2-1 price limits the win bet value. The most sensible approach is to use Zarafa (4) over Striking Finale (3), Pearl Of Pearl (10), and Max (6) in exactas, and build trifectas around those four with Serrania (1) as a price bomb in the third slot.
Selections
Win: Zarafa (4) Place: Striking Finale (3) Show: Max (6)
Race 6 is a $12,500 claiming route at approximately 8.5 furlongs on the main dirt track for fillies and mares. This is a step up from Race 4 in claiming price but still in the lower claiming ranks. Seven horses are entered, and the morning line is topped by HORSEPLAY (3) and ALLURING SERENITY (7) at 2-1 each.
Pace Analysis
At a mile and one-sixteenth on the main track with seven horses, the early pace will be set by whoever has the most early foot. Horseplay (3) and Alluring Serenity (7) are the favorites, and the race dynamics will depend heavily on whether either horse wants to establish the lead. Toasttothestones (2) at 4-1 and Pretty Geisha (6) at 4-1 are likely to be pressing or stalking types. A two-horse speed duel in a seven-horse claiming route at this level can produce a big closer finish, but more commonly, the fastest horse on the front end holds on if the pace is moderate.
Key Contenders
Horseplay (3), trained by Timothy Hills and ridden by Rajiv Maragh at 2-1, opens as a co-morning line choice. Hills has been working horses through this closing stretch of the Gulfstream meet, and Maragh — an experienced and accomplished jockey — is a strong booking. Post 3 in a route on the main track is excellent positioning. Horseplay (3) is the horse to beat on class and jockey grounds.
Alluring Serenity (7), trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by Micah Husbands at 2-1, is particularly noteworthy given that Delgado's barn is currently in the national spotlight with The Puma's Kentucky Derby preparation. Delgado is one of the more accomplished trainers at Gulfstream, and Alluring Serenity (7) from post 7 — the outside post in a seven-horse field — will need to find a clear path into the first turn. Husbands can be patient, and in a seven-horse field, the traffic issue is manageable.
Secondary Choices
Toasttothestones (2), trained by Kelly Breen and ridden by Pascacio Lopez at 4-1, is a legitimate contender. Breen is a well-regarded trainer with a strong record at routes, and Lopez has been one of the more productive riders on this circuit during the spring meet. Post 2 gives Toasttothestones excellent positioning to track the pace from a comfortable spot.
Pretty Geisha (6), trained by Garrett Arscott and ridden by Carlos Martinez at 4-1, is the other mid-price contender. Arscott is a lesser-profile trainer, but the 4-1 price on a horse that could rate close to the pace is worth monitoring.
Longshots
Coqueta Blue (5) at 10-1 for trainer Antonio Sano and jockey Samy Camacho, Awesomely Wild (4) at 12-1 for trainer Vaughan Heard and jockey Mia Nicholls, and Mischief Motion (1) at 20-1 for trainer Bruno Tessore and jockey JG Torrealba round out the field. Coqueta Blue (5) gets a minor mention — Sano's barn at 10-1 with Camacho is not entirely dismissible, but the price reflects a realistic disadvantage.
Betting Strategy
Horseplay (3) is the play on class and draw, but the 2-1 price is tight. The value is in using Toasttothestones (2) in second in exactas, with Alluring Serenity (7) as the key Delgado barn inclusion. Exacta box of Horseplay (3), Toasttothestones (2), and Alluring Serenity (7) at $2 each covers the most likely outcome combinations.
Selections
Win: Horseplay (3) Place: Toasttothestones (2) Show: Alluring Serenity (7)
Race 7 is an optional claiming sprint at approximately 5.5 furlongs for non-winners of two races, with the $20,000 claiming option. This is a competitive mid-level sprint and one of the more interesting races on the card from a wagering standpoint. Nine horses are entered, and RACHEL’S COACH (7) opens at 3-1 with SURF’S UP (8) and THREE ZERO (9) both at 4-1.
Pace Analysis
A nine-horse optional claiming sprint with multiple speed types figures to produce a fairly honest pace. Rachel's Coach (7), Air Force Cruising (1), and potentially Mooncapture (2) could be involved early. The key scenario is whether the pace is fast enough to set up closers Nic's Bro (3) and Mr Narcissistic (4), both at 6-1, who may be tracking the pace. Three Zero (9) from the far outside will use energy establishing position, and Surf's Up (8) at 4-1 will depend on how the pace develops.
Key Contenders
Rachel's Coach (7), trained by Rohan Crichton and ridden by Edwin Gonzalez at 3-1, is the morning line choice. Gonzalez has been active and effective at this meet, and Rachel's Coach from post 7 in a sprint will need to find a clean run but is positioned well enough to do so. Crichton is a trainer with a solid win percentage who targets these optional claiming sprints effectively.
Surf's Up (8), trained by David Fawkes and ridden by Pascacio Lopez at 4-1, is a natural play for the Fawkes-Lopez combination that has been productive at Gulfstream this spring. Post 8 in a nine-horse sprint is the second-widest draw, which is a mild negative, but Lopez is experienced enough to navigate the early going without sacrificing too much ground.
Three Zero (9), trained by Carlos David and ridden by Samy Camacho at 4-1, from the outside post faces the toughest trip in terms of ground loss, but Camacho's tactical ability on the rail at this track is well-established. If Three Zero (9) breaks sharply and Camacho can angle him to a comfortable spot quickly, the 4-1 price represents a solid overlay for a David-Camacho combination.
Secondary Choices
Mr Narcissistic (4), trained by Nolan Ramsey and ridden by Miguel Angel Vasquez at 6-1, from post 4 has a workable draw and one of the better jockeys in the field. Vasquez's ability to rate a horse and find a clear trip in a sprint makes Mr Narcissistic (4) a legitimate contender at a price.
Nic's Bro (3), trained by Andrea Puckett and ridden by Diego Herrera at 6-1, offers a mid-field draw and a competitive morning line price that suggests the horse has some legitimate form.
Longshots
Mooncapture (2) at 8-1 for trainer Edisley Soler and jockey Jose Morelos, Fulanito (6) at 8-1 for trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo and jockey Yolber Torres, Raydar Control (5) at 15-1 for trainer Dennis Ward and jockey J.C. Ferrer, and Air Force Cruising (1) at 20-1 for trainer Eduardo Luces and jockey Gabriel Maldonado complete the field. Fulanito (6) at 8-1 for D'Angelo, who has been one of the more active and successful trainers at this meet, deserves at least a small mention as an exotic inclusion.
Race 7 offers the best multi-horse exotic opportunity on the card. Use RACHEL’S COACH (7) and SURF’S UP (8) on top in exactas with MR NARCISSISTIC (4), THREE ZERO (9), and NIC’S BRO (3) underneath. The trifecta using those five horses in a partial wheel is the recommended approach.
Selections
Win: Rachel's Coach (7) Place: Surf's Up (8) Show: Three Zero (9)
RACE 8 — Post (4:35) — 1650f | T | M | Md 17500 | BOF | Purse $31,000
The card closes with a maiden $17,500 claiming event at approximately 8.5 furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares. A full field of ten goes postward in what figures to be a competitive, slightly chaotic affair at the bottom of the maiden claiming ladder on the grass. The morning line is topped by Senta Says (7) at 3-1 and World Builder (1) and Stop Judging (8) at 4-1.
Race 8
Pace Analysis
A ten-horse turf route at this level on a potentially softening turf surface — given the afternoon shower threat — could produce an unpredictable pace scenario. World Builder (1) from the rail is ideally positioned to control or press the pace. Senta Says (7) and Stop Judging (8) may be more tactical, rating off whatever pace develops. The turf course tends to favor inside-running horses in routes at Gulfstream, and World Builder (1) with the rail draw has an inherent advantage if she can break cleanly. A slow early pace would benefit front-runners; an honest pace would set up the closers from mid-pack.
Key Contenders
Senta Says (7), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Micah Husbands at 3-1, is the morning line choice. This is the fourth ride on the card for the Joseph-Husbands combination, which speaks to the barn's overall activity level. Joseph is among the elite trainers at this track, and a 3-1 morning line price in a $17,500 maiden turf route represents genuine confidence. The post 7 draw on a ten-horse turf field is moderate — not ideal, but not prohibitive in a longer route.
World Builder (1), trained by Amador Merei Sanchez with Marcos Meneses aboard at 4-1, has the significant advantage of the rail draw on the turf. While this trainer-jockey combination is less well-known than some of the others in the field, the tactical advantage of post 1 in a ten-horse turf route at Gulfstream cannot be overstated. At 4-1, World Builder represents the best value play from a post position standpoint.
Stop Judging (8), trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Edwin Gonzalez at 4-1, carries notable trainer interest. Wesley Ward is one of the premier turf trainers in North America, particularly with fillies and mares on the grass. Ward's runners at Gulfstream are always well-prepared for turf assignments, and the 4-1 morning line price on a Ward-trained turf maiden is a price worth betting regardless of the post draw.
Secondary Choices
Come On Poppi (3), trained by Victor Barboza Jr. and ridden by Pascacio Lopez at 6-1, from post 3 on the turf has a workable inside draw that should allow for ground-saving tactics. Jenn's Beliefs (5), trained by J. Kent Sweezey and ridden by Jose Morelos at 5-1, is the fourth choice and another mid-price option in a competitive closing race.
Longshots
Shes Blue N Orange (2) at 10-1 for trainer Patrick Biancone and jockey Jose Antonio Gomez, Hot Cocoa (9) at 12-1 for trainer Mary Lightner and jockey Rajiv Maragh, Banba (4) at 15-1 for trainer Larry Sterling Jr. and jockey Edgar Perez, Scarlett's Law (6) at 15-1 for trainer Kathleen O'Connell and jockey Diego Herrera, and Rainbow Lane (10) at 30-1 for trainer Milton Nunez and jockey Renzo Rojas are the bottom of the morning line. Hot Cocoa (9) at 12-1 with Maragh on the turf is a minor mention — Maragh's grass-riding ability is genuine, and if the price extends further on the board, a small exotic play is defensible.
Betting Strategy
This is a chaotic closing race with a full field. The approach should be to key Stop Judging (8) and World Builder (1) together in exactas, with Senta Says (7) completing the trifecta. The Wesley Ward angle on Stop Judging (8) at 4-1 is the strongest trainer angle on this race. Use all three in a trifecta box and expand to include Come On Poppi (3) in the third position of trifectas.
Selections
Win: Stop Judging (8) Place: World Builder (1) Show: Senta Says (7)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Pascacio Lopez stands out as the busiest and most impactful rider on today's card, with mounts in Races 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8. Lopez has been one of the top riders at the Gulfstream spring meet, and his booking on multiple competitive horses across the card — including Toasttothestones (2) in Race 6 and Misprint (1) in Race 4 — reflects his standing with multiple prominent trainers. He is at his best in sprints on the main track, where his gate instincts and positional awareness are particularly valuable.
Micah Husbands rides for Saffie Joseph Jr. in multiple races today, continuing a partnership that has been among the most productive at this meet. Husbands is a careful, intelligent rider who does his best work on the turf and in routes. His mounts include Zarafa (4) in Race 5, Alluring Serenity (7) in Race 6, May Mischief (5) in Race 4, Peacethrustrength (5) in Race 2, and Senta Says (7) in Race 8. The volume of Joseph barn mounts speaks to the trainer's trust in him.
Miguel Angel Vasquez is another high-volume rider today, with mounts in Races 1, 3, 4, 5, and 7. Vasquez is one of the more experienced and versatile riders at Gulfstream, equally capable on dirt and turf, in sprints and routes. His booking on Nahla (5) in Race 3 for Brad Cox is a marquee assignment.
Rajiv Maragh rides in Races 2, 6, and 8. Maragh has excellent turf credentials, and his mounts on Landman Friday (3) in Race 2 and Horseplay (3) in Race 6 represent two of the stronger opportunities on the card. His pick-up of Hot Cocoa (9) in Race 8 is a minor longshot angle worth noting.
Samy Camacho rides multiple times today, including Delightfully (2) in Race 3 and Pearl Of Pearl (10) in Race 5. Camacho is reliable and has shown particular comfort at Gulfstream Park's turf course.
Edwin Gonzalez handles Breezey Bella (4) in Race 4, Rachel's Coach (7) in Race 7, and Stop Judging (8) in Race 8 among others. Gonzalez has been consistent and productive throughout the meet. His booking on the Wesley Ward-trained Stop Judging (8) is arguably his most significant ride of the day.
Diego Herrera picks up mounts in Races 2, 5, 6, 7, and 8, providing solid mid-tier support across the card. Sonny Leon, handling The Brigade (4) in Race 2 and Divine Secrets (6) in Race 3 for the Mark Casse barn, is always a jockey to note when Casse entrusts him with allowance-level runners.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Saffie Joseph Jr. is clearly the most active trainer on today's card, sending out horses in Races 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8. Joseph's barn has been one of the dominant operations at the Gulfstream spring meet, posting a high win percentage with well-prepared horses across all conditions. His most notable runners today are Zarafa (4) in Race 5 and Late Night Text (7) in Race 3. The volume of entries suggests a barn firing on all cylinders heading into the final days of the meet.
Brad Cox, shipping from his base in Kentucky and Louisiana, enters two horses in Race 3 — Delightfully (2) and Nahla (5). Cox is among the top trainers in North America, and his decision to double-enter in this $68,000 maiden special weight suggests genuine confidence in both runners. Cox's win percentage in maiden special weights with well-bred fillies is exceptional. When he sends two to the same race, both deserve serious handicapping attention.
Mark Casse sends out The Brigade (4) in Race 2 and Divine Secrets (6) in Race 3. Casse is one of the most accomplished trainers at multiple circuits, and while Divine Secrets (6) at 10-1 may be overlooked by bettors focused on the Cox double, the Casse barn's consistent output demands respect. Casse's turf runners have been particularly sharp this spring.
Gustavo Delgado, currently in the national spotlight with The Puma's Kentucky Derby preparation, has Alluring Serenity (7) in Race 6. Delgado's barn is operating at a high level right now, and the energy surrounding The Puma's Derby campaign could be a positive indicator for the overall health of horses coming out of his stable.
Patrick Biancone, who trains Sister Slew (1) in Race 1 and Shes Blue N Orange (2) in Race 8, is a veteran with decades of international and domestic experience. His horses at Gulfstream are typically well-schooled and professional.
Wesley Ward's sole entry today is Stop Judging (8) in Race 8, and that alone makes it noteworthy. Ward's win percentage with fillies and mares on the turf at Gulfstream is among the best of any trainer who ships in for spot starts, and the 4-1 morning line on Stop Judging (8) in a $31,000 maiden turf route represents excellent value.
Steve Klesaris with Landman Friday (3) in Race 2 is a trainer who knows the South Florida circuit well. Antonio Sano, entering Bon Vivant (4) in Race 3 and Coqueta Blue (5) in Race 6, is one of the most successful South American-born trainers at Gulfstream Park and consistently one of the leading trainers by wins at this meet.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best value on the card is clustered in Races 3, 7, and 8, and the exotic structures that connect those races with the mid-card legs offer the highest expected return for experienced handicappers.
Win Bet Value: The clearest win bet overlay of the day is Stop Judging (8) in Race 8 at 4-1, given Wesley Ward's exceptional record with turf fillies at Gulfstream. The second-best win bet is Misprint (1) in Race 4 at 3-1 with the rail draw in a sprint, combined with Lopez in the saddle. World Builder (1) in Race 8 at 4-1 on the rail on the turf is a third strong win play, especially if the turf surface softens.
Exacta Value: The Race 3 exacta using Nahla (5) over Delightfully (2) and Bon Vivant (4) is the recommended structure. The Cox double entry may depress the exacta prices involving both Cox horses, which means the Bon Vivant (4) underneath will pay considerably more. In Race 7, the exacta combining Rachel's Coach (7) and Surf's Up (8) with Mr Narcissistic (4) and Three Zero (9) is a competitive multi-horse structure.
Trifecta Angles: Race 5 offers the strongest trifecta opportunity on the card. Key Zarafa (4) and Striking Finale (3) on top, with Pearl Of Pearl (10), Max (6), and Serrania (1) filling the third slot. Race 8 trifecta: Stop Judging (8) and World Builder (1) over Senta Says (7) and Come On Poppi (3), with price bombs Shes Blue N Orange (2) and Hot Cocoa (9) for the third slot.
Pick 4 and Pick 5 Strategy: The Pick 4 spanning Races 5 through 8 is the premier exotic structure to target today. Use Zarafa (4) as the key in Race 5, Horseplay (3) as the key in Race 6, with a spread of Rachel's Coach (7) and Surf's Up (8) in Race 7, and Stop Judging (8) and World Builder (1) in Race 8. A $2 Pick 4 ticket keying one horse in Races 5 and 6, and two in Races 7 and 8, costs $8 — a manageable investment with significant potential return.
The Pick 5 that likely begins in Race 4 or Race 5 should incorporate Misprint (1) or Breezey Bella (4) in the opening sprint, then follow the same structure above through the closing turf race. Using single keys in the races where confidence is highest — Zarafa (4) in Race 5 and Horseplay (3) in Race 6 — while spreading in the closer, more volatile races is the sound approach.
The standout value play of the card remains Stop Judging (8) at 4-1 in Race 8. The Wesley Ward trainer angle on turf fillies is one of the most reliable edges in South Florida racing, and the 4-1 morning line price in a maiden claiming turf route should represent an overlay when the final odds are posted.
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✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (54%). (2) Career-best speed figure (75) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Switching turf-to-dirt with a strong turf pedigree rating (110) — pedigree suggests main-track improvement is likely. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Pedigree-Backed Switch.