Posted inAnalysis Reports

Hawthorne Race Course – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the June 28, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Race Day Overview

Hawthorne Race Course presents a seven-race Sunday card on June 28, 2026, built around turf allowance and optional claiming routes early and competitive claiming and allowance events on the dirt and turf later in the day. The program offers several logical short-priced favorites but also meaningful opportunities for value, particularly in the middle claiming races and the closing turf allowance for fillies and mares.

The broader context today is the uncertain future of racing at Hawthorne. A stalking-horse bid of approximately $90 million has been secured for the property, setting a potential minimum price for any buyer who might keep racing alive at the track. Recent local coverage notes that at least one bidder is expected to end horse racing at Hawthorne unless another buyer steps in, underscoring that connections are running here with an eye toward current purses rather than long-term circuit stability.

Track Bias and Post Position Tendencies

Hawthorne's dirt surface in two-turn routes traditionally plays close to fair, with a mild historical lean toward horses who can secure forward or tactical position without being forced into a speed duel. Inside posts are not a strong advantage by themselves at the common two-turn distances; trip and pace dynamics matter more than raw post draw.

On the turf, Hawthorne often rewards patient, ground-saving trips from mid-pack, with inside and middle posts slightly preferred in longer routes simply because they reduce the risk of wide, energy-wasting trips into the first turn. Front-runners can wire fields when unpressured, but in full or near-full fields, sustained runners who can quicken off an honest pace are regularly successful.

Given these tendencies, the card's turf routes at 1650–1760 yards and the dirt routes at 1870 yards should be approached with a focus on pace shape and trip potential rather than strictly on post position, using the draw only as a tie-breaker among otherwise similar contenders.

RACE 1 — Post 3:41/(2:41)/1:41/12:41 — 1760f | T | AO | OClm 50000b | BUN | Purse $32,000

Pace Analysis

The pace projects as honest but not extreme. Not Falling Back (4) owns natural speed and has shown their best when allowed to control or attend the pace, and handicappers expect them to be involved early once again. Protonic Power (5) has enough tactical speed to be on or just off the front, while Journey (3) is seen as a classic stalk-and-pounce type with first-run capabilities. Another Mystery (1) tends to settle mid-pack and make one sustained run, and Coach Jimi D (2) can be forward but is more of a pace-adaptable type shifting surfaces.

Overall, this should be an evenly run turf route where a contested yet manageable pace puts a premium on tactical speed and finishing punch rather than on deep closers.

Key Contenders

Journey (3) is projected to enjoy an ideal trip from a tactical position, sitting just behind the main speeds with the opportunity to get first run turning for home. Handicappers note that Journey (3) is well suited to this distance and turf configuration, and their recent form suggests they can sustain a strong move when not asked to duel early. With a suitable draw and rider, Journey (3) is a major win candidate if the track plays true to form.

Not Falling Back (4) profiles as the main speed threat, with handicappers expecting them to show their early foot and try to take this field as far as possible on the lead. While moving up in class, Not Falling Back (4) has shown that their best races come when they are allowed to dictate terms, and today's field does not contain multiple confirmed speedballs that would obviously force a meltdown. If the turf is playing kindly to pace types, Not Falling Back (4) is a serious wire-to-wire candidate.

Another Mystery (1) is a proven turf route performer with back class and stamina. From the rail, Another Mystery (1) can secure a ground-saving trip and wait for gaps turning for home. Although lacking the tactical speed of Journey (3), Another Mystery (1) offers a strong sustained finish and figures to be running best of all in the final furlong if the early fractions are honest.

Protonic Power (5) is another key player, stepping into this spot with consistent speed figures and a style that allows them to sit just off the front-runners. Protonic Power (5) may get a perfect stalking trip if Not Falling Back (4) and Coach Jimi D (2) go on early. If Protonic Power (5) has any hidden improvement left at this level, they can absolutely win this race with a timely move.

Secondary Choices

Coach Jimi D (2) is described by handicappers as the wildcard, trying the turf while fitting reasonably on speed figures and class for this level. The surface switch introduces uncertainty, but Coach Jimi D (2) has the tactical speed to make themselves relevant early and potentially secure a forward, rail-adjacent trip. If Coach Jimi D (2) handles the grass as well as their numbers suggest they might, they could outrun their morning line and offer value in vertical exotics.

Longshots

With only five runners, there are no true longshots by field size, but in relative terms Coach Jimi D (2) is the outsider compared with the more established turf runners. All entrants are mentioned above, so there is no overlooked horse in this small field.

Selections

Win: Journey (3) Place: Not Falling Back (4) Show: Another Mystery (1)

Betting strategy: Use Journey (3) and Not Falling Back (4) as primary win keys. Consider exactas and doubles emphasizing Journey (3) over Another Mystery (1) and Protonic Power (5), and leverage Journey (3) as a single or strong “A” in early multi-race wagers if you accept the projected trip advantage.

RACE 2 — Post 4:17/(3:17)/2:17/1:17 — 1650f | T | A | Alw 31000n1x | BUN | Purse $31,000

Pace Analysis

This turf allowance at 1650 yards presents a more complex pace situation. Ciao Tommaso (1), Ketchum (2), Storm Back (3), and Cash App Mike (4) all have some tactical speed, while Man On Attack (6) is capable of sitting close and Dynamis (7) can stalk. Jock Frost (5) tends to be more of a mid-pack or stalking type. With several horses capable of attending the pace, the early fractions should be honest but may not be suicidal unless one rider aggressively commits to an all-out send.

Key Contenders

Ciao Tommaso (1) returns to the turf, a surface that handicappers note they are physically well suited for and have already proven with a dominant maiden special weight victory on May 28, described as a B+ type performance by some analysts. From the inside draw, Ciao Tommaso (1) can save ground while either sitting close or stalking, depending on how aggressively others ride. The combination of proven turf affinity and recent winning form makes Ciao Tommaso (1) a key win threat.

Ketchum (2) comes from a barn with strong turf credentials and appears well spotted here on the rise from prior efforts. Ketchum (2) draws well, has tactical speed, and can secure a comfortable stalking position. If Ketchum (2) continues their progression on the grass, they have every right to win at this level.

Man On Attack (6) goes for a trainer who can place horses effectively and possesses the tactical running style to sit just off the pace. Man On Attack (6) may be slightly less exposed on turf than some rivals but fits well with the allowance condition and can be used as a key contender, particularly if the pace does not get too hot.

Secondary Choices

Storm Back (3) has enough speed to be involved early and could secure a forward position without severe pressure. Storm Back (3) is not as proven at the level as some, but their running style fits today's projected race shape and they could stick around for a share if they relax early.

Cash App Mike (4) and Jock Frost (5) both figure as logical underneath types. Cash App Mike (4) brings some consistency and can sit just off the pace, giving them a chance to grind into the frame. Jock Frost (5) tends to be a mid-pack runner who can pick up pieces late if a few of the pace-adjacent runners tire in the lane.

Dynamis (7) has shown they can be effective in turf routes when given a patient ride and could be the kind who sneaks into the trifecta at a fair price if the race collapses a bit late.

Longshots

Given the spread of morning lines, Dynamis (7) and possibly Storm Back (3) shape up as the relative longshots. Dynamis (7) especially can be used as a price play in deeper vertical exotics, needing a well-timed ride and a fair turf to maximize their late run.

Selections

Win: Ciao Tommaso (1) Place: Ketchum (2) Show: Man On Attack (6)

Betting strategy: Ciao Tommaso (1) is a viable single in early multi-race sequences if you trust the prior turf win and the rail trip. In verticals, emphasize exactas with Ciao Tommaso (1) over Ketchum (2), Man On Attack (6), and Storm Back (3), and consider adding Dynamis (7) underneath in trifectas and superfectas for added value.

RACE 3 — Post 4:49/(3:49)/2:49/1:49 — 1870f | D | C | Clm 5000b | BUN | Purse $11,500

Pace Analysis

This low-level route claimer on dirt should feature a contentious pace. Handicappers note that Hard To Fathom (5) is expected to be forwardly placed and help keep the early fractions honest, joining Coni's Coup (3) and People Force (4), both described as front-running types coming off recent on-the-pace wins. With three runners inclined to go early, there is a real possibility of a pace duel into the first turn, creating a dynamic that may favor a more tactical or off-the-pace runner if the leaders overdo it.

Key Contenders

Coni's Coup (3) is the morning line favorite and a key contender with recent sharp form and front-running success. They bring speed, current fitness, and the ability to carry that speed around two turns at this level. If Coni's Coup (3) can establish a clear lead without excessive pressure, they are a major win candidate.

People Force (4) exits a front-running victory and shares a similar profile, giving them a strong case as another primary contender. People Force (4) is dangerous if they can sit just off Coni's Coup (3) or, alternatively, secure the rail and force others to chase. Together, Coni's Coup (3) and People Force (4) shape the race up front.

Secondary Choices

Hard To Fathom (5) is projected to be forwardly placed and can help shape the pace while also holding realistic chances to stay in the frame. If Hard To Fathom (5) is not forced into a prolonged duel and can track rather than contest both speeds, they could be the one who gets first run on tiring leaders turning for home.

Line To Gain (1) and New Year Surprise (2) look more like stalking or mid-pack types who can pick up pieces if the projected speed battle materializes. Line To Gain (1) has the rail and can save ground, while New Year Surprise (2) can float outside and avoid traffic. Either could be an exotics player if the leaders falter.

Longshots

Line To Gain (1) and New Year Surprise (2) carry longer morning lines and lack the recent win form of the principal pace types, making them relative longshots. Their best path to value is a true pace meltdown where multiple speeds weaken late and a rail-sitting or outside-charging runner can improve position into a tiring field.

Selections

Win: Coni's Coup (3) Place: People Force (4) Show: Hard To Fathom (5)

Betting strategy: Emphasize exactas and trifectas keyed around the main pace trio. A logical structure is Coni's Coup (3) and People Force (4) on top, with Hard To Fathom (5) and one or both of Line To Gain (1) and New Year Surprise (2) underneath, anticipating that at least one speed will soften late.

RACE 4 — Post 5:22/(4:22)/3:22/2:22 — 1210f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $30,000

Pace Analysis

This turf sprint for state-bred maidens features multiple potential pace contributors. Rockfest (1) and Rocky Raccoon (2) both come from the same barn and have shown speed, with handicappers noting that Rockfest (1) holds the edge in terms of recency and demonstrated improvement over turf sprints this season. Thiever (4) has displayed speed figure progression and can also be part of the early mix. Mischievous Richie (5), from a high-percentage stable, usually shows enough tactical speed to sit close, while This Beau Knows (3) can be in mid-pack with some early intent. Stormystormynight (6), returning from a very long layoff, is more of an unknown, but connections may opt for a conservative ride.

Pace should be honest to quick, with the inside pair and Thiever (4) most likely to ensure strong early fractions.

Key Contenders

Rockfest (1) is highlighted by handicappers as the preferred Divito runner, having the recency and surface/distance edge with improved performances on the turf sprinting this season. From the rail, Rockfest (1) can break alertly, secure the inside, and either lead or sit just off the front, making them a major win candidate in this field.

Mischievous Richie (5) comes from a prolific barn that excels with sprinters and turf runners. Mischievous Richie (5) should attract support on trainer reputation alone and, with a clean break, can secure a stalking position in the clear. If Mischievous Richie (5) has typical first-out or second-out improvement for the stable, they could be best of these.

This Beau Knows (3) is a logical contender for connections that consistently hit the board at Hawthorne. This Beau Knows (3) may not be the absolute quickest away from the gate, but with a patient, ground-saving ride could launch a late run into a pace comprised of multiple early-speed types.

Secondary Choices

Rocky Raccoon (2), the second Divito runner, lacks the same recency edge as Rockfest (1) but draws well and can be part of the pace or sit just behind it. Rocky Raccoon (2) is a viable secondary selection, especially if the rail horse does not break sharply.

Thiever (4) has shown progressive speed figures, though lighter than some top contenders. If Thiever (4) continues their upward trajectory and breaks sharply, they can remain in the fight for minor awards and possibly more.

Longshots

Stormystormynight (6) returns as an eight-year-old after approximately 957 days away from the races and steps up sharply from maiden claiming to maiden special weight for the comeback. This combination of a long absence, age, and tougher class makes Stormystormynight (6) a longshot, with handicappers viewing them as needing the race and facing multiple hurdles. Stormystormynight (6) is primarily an inclusion in deep superfectas if you seek a big price possibility.

Selections

Win: Rockfest (1) Place: Mischievous Richie (5) Show: This Beau Knows (3)

Betting strategy: Focus win wagers on Rockfest (1) and Mischievous Richie (5). In exotics, use Rockfest (1) as a key, backing exactas and trifectas with Mischievous Richie (5), This Beau Knows (3), and Rocky Raccoon (2), and optionally include Thiever (4) in deeper tickets.

RACE 5 — Post 5:52/(4:52)/3:52/2:52 — 1210f | T | CO | OClm 10000 | BUN | Purse $14,500

Pace Analysis

This turf sprint optional claimer is one of the most complex pace scenarios on the card. Shake Up (1), Nagy And Da Bears (2), Gunny Sack (3), Sawyer Fox (4), We Miss Arlington (5), Even The Wind (6), Mr. Sweets (7), Racarino (8), Bernie Lomax (9), and Strange Arrange (10) collectively provide multiple sources of potential early speed and pressing types.

Handicappers single out Even The Wind (6) as a major player at this level, with current form and speed figures that match or exceed typical rivals. Even The Wind (6) has enough tactical speed to sit just off the pace rather than be embroiled in the initial scramble, which should help in what is likely a fast early environment.

Key Contenders

Even The Wind (6) is considered a primary win candidate and is expected to start as a short-priced favorite in this race. Their current form, strong turf sprint figures, and ability to secure a stalking, outside trip make Even The Wind (6) extremely dangerous, especially if several other pace types soften each other in the first two furlongs.

Sawyer Fox (4) brings quality connections and turf sprint credentials. Sawyer Fox (4) has shown the kind of tactical speed and finishing ability that can win at this level when given clear running room. If Sawyer Fox (4) avoids traffic and sits just behind the leaders, they can deliver a winning or at least high-percentage performance.

We Miss Arlington (5) carries significant emotional resonance given local racing history and has shown they can handle the turf while operating effectively at this optional claiming level. We Miss Arlington (5) is a solid contender who should be positioned in mid-pack or just off the speed, ready to capitalize if the pace collapses.

Secondary Choices

Mr. Sweets (7) is a logical secondary choice with a good draw and tactical profile. Mr. Sweets (7) can either contest the pace or stalk, depending on how aggressively others break. At a midrange price, Mr. Sweets (7) is appealing in exactas and trifectas.

Racarino (8) has enough speed to be involved early and could get a favorable outside stalking trip. Racarino (8) can be used as a secondary selection in vertical exotics, particularly if rider intent is to sit off the very inside speed rather than duel.

Strange Arrange (10) is drawn outside and can either press three-wide or sit in the clear while stalking. Strange Arrange (10) may be used tactically by connections to avoid traffic, and if they fire their best, they can be in the top four.

Shake Up (1), Nagy And Da Bears (2), and Gunny Sack (3) all have potential pace roles and can be part of the lower rungs of trifectas and superfectas with the right trip. Shake Up (1) in particular has been mentioned by handicappers as an interesting long price in some projections.

Bernie Lomax (9) has a post that may require a bit of luck to secure position but can sit mid-pack and rally if things break right.

Longshots

Given the competitive nature of the field, Shake Up (1), Nagy And Da Bears (2), Gunny Sack (3), and Bernie Lomax (9) qualify as relative longshots. They will need either a perfect trip, a pronounced bias favoring their running style, or an unexpectedly strong improvement to win, but they offer value in larger exotic structures, especially superfectas.

Selections

Win: Even The Wind (6) Place: Sawyer Fox (4) Show: We Miss Arlington (5)

Betting strategy: Even The Wind (6) can be used as a potential single in multi-race sequences, but given the depth of pace in the race, it is prudent to have Sawyer Fox (4) and We Miss Arlington (5) as backup “A/B” types. In verticals, build exactas and trifectas around Even The Wind (6) over Sawyer Fox (4), We Miss Arlington (5), and Mr. Sweets (7), with Racarino (8) and Strange Arrange (10) added in wider tickets.

RACE 6 — Post 6:20/(5:20)/4:20/3:20 — 1870f | D | C | Clm 5000n2l | BUN | Purse $11,000

Pace Analysis

This two-turn dirt claimer for non-winners of two projects with a moderate to honest pace. Wolf Hunter (1) has established two-turn main track form and tends to be forward or tactical. Moonrise Drive (2) can stalk or press, Best Dressed Man (3) might show speed to secure position, Game Santa (4) can be on or near the pace, and Cantarito (5) often sits just off the front. Lucky Destiny (6) and Howard's Grit (7) appear more likely to stalk or run mid-pack.

The likely scenario sees Wolf Hunter (1) and one of Game Santa (4) or Best Dressed Man (3) vying for the lead, with Moonrise Drive (2) and Cantarito (5) tracking in close attendance.

Key Contenders

Handicappers point strongly to Wolf Hunter (1) as being well placed to secure their second career win today. Wolf Hunter (1) brings established two-turn dirt form, suitable pace versatility, and the sort of class and experience edge that often proves decisive at the 5000 non-winners-of-two level. From the rail, Wolf Hunter (1) can either send to defend position or allow others to show speed and sit just behind, saving ground and waiting to angle out in the lane.

Moonrise Drive (2) is the other major win candidate. Moonrise Drive (2) has shown that they can finish off a moderate pace and, with a patient rider, should be poised to strike if Wolf Hunter (1) and other speeds tire late. Their running style fits the projected race shape well.

Secondary Choices

Cantarito (5) owns a pressing or stalking style and can be considered a secondary contender. Cantarito (5) may sit third or fourth early, traveling comfortably, and launch a bid at the three-eighths pole. If Cantarito (5) moves at the right time, they can absolutely hit the board.

Lucky Destiny (6) is a fair secondary player, with enough ability to be involved in the trifecta at this level. Lucky Destiny (6) may appreciate sitting mid-pack and rallying into a gradually tiring pace.

Game Santa (4) can show speed and, if left alone, potentially carry it longer than expected. Game Santa (4) appears more likely to fade late but cannot be dismissed entirely.

Best Dressed Man (3) and Howard's Grit (7) look more like fringe contenders, needing clear improvement or a favorable bias to make a serious impact.

Longshots

Best Dressed Man (3) and Howard's Grit (7) are relative longshots in this spot. Their main appeal is as deep exotic fillers, particularly in superfectas where a chaotic pace or bias might allow them to clunk up for a minor share.

Selections

Win: Wolf Hunter (1) Place: Moonrise Drive (2) Show: Cantarito (5)

Betting strategy: Wolf Hunter (1) is an attractive key in daily doubles, pick 3s, and pick 4s, offering a likely short price but strong win probability. For verticals, play Wolf Hunter (1) over Moonrise Drive (2), Cantarito (5), and Lucky Destiny (6), and consider including Game Santa (4) underneath.

RACE 7 — Post 6:48/(5:48)/4:48/3:48 — 1650f | T | A | Alw 31000n1x | BUM | Purse $31,000

Pace Analysis

The closing turf allowance for fillies and mares at 1650 yards features a balanced pace. Roaring Vixen (1), Ballybay Beauty (2), April's Gem (3), Shakrevenge (4), Culture Shock (5), Peacock Road (6), Floribunda (7), and Royally Sassy (8) are all present, but Royally Sassy (8) stands out as having demonstrated strong early speed and control in a recent maiden win at Hawthorne.

Handicappers and recent media note that Royally Sassy (8) broke her maiden at Hawthorne earlier in June, with respectable fractions such as a 23.91 opening quarter indicating good tactical foot on turf. Royally Sassy (8) projects as the primary pace presence, with Peacock Road (6), Roaring Vixen (1), and Shakrevenge (4) potentially pressing or stalking just behind.

Key Contenders

Royally Sassy (8) is the likely favorite and key winner, entering this allowance off that recent maiden score over the Hawthorne turf where she dictated the pace and finished strongly. Drawing favorably toward the outside, Royally Sassy (8) can once again control or attend the pace in the clear, allowing for a smooth trip and a strong chance to repeat against one-time winners.

Floribunda (7) is a major threat with connections that have performed well at Hawthorne. Floribunda (7) possesses a versatile style, able to stalk or sit mid-pack and run on late, making her well suited to this distance and level. If Royally Sassy (8) faces more pressure than last time, Floribunda (7) could be the one to capitalize in the lane.

Peacock Road (6) is another key contender. Peacock Road (6) typically offers a tactical running style and has the class to compete at this n1x level. If Peacock Road (6) tracks Royally Sassy (8) and saves ground, she is a logical top-three finisher with upside for more.

Secondary Choices

Roaring Vixen (1) can secure the rail and either attend the pace or settle in mid-pack. Roaring Vixen (1) has enough ability to get into the exotics and could be a sneaky value if overlooked.

April's Gem (3) and Culture Shock (5) are mid-pack types who can benefit from a balanced or contested pace. April's Gem (3) may prefer a slightly quicker tempo to set up their late run, while Culture Shock (5) is more of a grinder who can sustain a long drive.

Shakrevenge (4) figures as a tactical or pressing type who can be in the mix early. A well-timed ride could keep Shakrevenge (4) involved for minor awards.

Ballybay Beauty (2) likely needs to step up to match the best of these but does have route turf experience and can be a fringe player in the superfecta.

Longshots

Ballybay Beauty (2) and possibly Roaring Vixen (1) and Culture Shock (5) serve as relative longshots from a win perspective but are important filler pieces in trifectas and superfectas. If Royally Sassy (8) underperforms or faces unusual trouble, this race could become more open, enhancing their value.

Selections

Win: Royally Sassy (8) Place: Floribunda (7) Show: Peacock Road (6)

Betting strategy: Royally Sassy (8) is a logical anchor for late daily doubles and pick 3s given the recent maiden win and tactical edge. In verticals, key Royally Sassy (8) over Floribunda (7) and Peacock Road (6), and build deeper tickets that add Roaring Vixen (1), April's Gem (3), Culture Shock (5), and Shakrevenge (4) underneath for coverage.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Frank Reyes, booked on Another Mystery (1), Thiever (4), Shake Up (1), and Moonrise Drive (2), has been riding with confidence at Hawthorne and tends to excel on horses who can sit just off the pace and finish strongly. His presence enhances the appeal of Another Mystery (1), Shake Up (1), and Moonrise Drive (2), particularly in route and turf scenarios.

Luis Colon, aboard Not Falling Back (4), This Beau Knows (3), Mr. Sweets (7), Wolf Hunter (1), and Peacock Road (6), is a rider who routinely secures good tactical position and saves ground when possible. His mount on Not Falling Back (4) in Race 1 is especially noteworthy, as he can attempt to control the pace, while his presence on Wolf Hunter (1) fortifies that horse's status as a strong key in Race 6.

O K Hernandez partners with Coach Jimi D (2), Ciao Tommaso (1), Coni's Coup (3), Rockfest (1), Culture Shock (5), and other live mounts. His turf riding acumen supports Ciao Tommaso (1) and Rockfest (1), both strong turf contenders, and his work with Coni's Coup (3) may help manage the aggressive pace situation in Race 3.

Alexander Bendezu appears on Journey (3), Rocky Raccoon (2), Even The Wind (6), Bernie Lomax (9), Lucky Destiny (6), and Royally Sassy (8). His mounts include several key horses: Journey (3) in Race 1, Even The Wind (6) in Race 5, and Royally Sassy (8) in Race 7. His ability to execute stalking, outside trips is especially valuable for Even The Wind (6) and Royally Sassy (8).

Javier Tavares rides Storm Back (3), We Miss Arlington (5), Cantarito (5), and Ballybay Beauty (2), among others. He is a solid turf rider who can maximize mid-pack closers, adding credibility to We Miss Arlington (5) and Cantarito (5) as exotics players.

E T Baird, on Cash App Mike (4), Mischievous Richie (5), Sawyer Fox (4), and Shakrevenge (4), brings long-standing experience in Chicago racing. His mounts from high-percentage barns such as Mischievous Richie (5) and Sawyer Fox (4) deserve respect, particularly in turf sprints.

Other riders, including Ademar Santos on Nagy And Da Bears (2) and April's Gem (3), Victor Lara on Line To Gain (1), Gunny Sack (3), and Game Santa (4), Assael Espinoza on Racarino (8), and Johanis Aranguren on Strange Arrange (10) and Howard's Grit (7), provide solid support and may be important in constructing deeper exotic tickets where rider familiarity with Hawthorne's configuration can offer subtle edges.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Chris Block sends out Another Mystery (1), Not Falling Back (4), This Beau Knows (3), and Even The Wind (6), among others. Block's barn is consistently strong with turf runners and mid-level allowance horses, making his horses key pieces in Races 1, 4, and 5. Even The Wind (6) and This Beau Knows (3) in particular fit his profile of well-spotted turf runners who deliver reliable efforts at their level.

James Divito trains Coach Jimi D (2), Rockfest (1), and Rocky Raccoon (2). Divito's turf and sprint record is solid, and the pairing of Rockfest (1) and Rocky Raccoon (2) side by side in Race 4 offers a strong one-two punch in that maiden turf sprint.

Armando Hernandez conditions Protonic Power (5), Thiever (4), and Racarino (8). His horses often show speed and tenacity, adding pace and competitiveness to their respective races. Protonic Power (5) and Racarino (8) are especially interesting as live turf players at reasonable prices.

Rivelli's presence with Mischievous Richie (5) in Race 4 adds a high-percentage angle; the barn is known for ready sprinters and for placing horses aggressively to win, making Mischievous Richie (5) a serious contender.

Joel Berndt has Shake Up (1) and Floribunda (7). Berndt often excels with turf and route horses, and Floribunda (7) is a key player in Race 7. Shake Up (1) in Race 5 is a live longshot who may outrun their odds.

Wayne Catalano's Sawyer Fox (4) in Race 5 is a notable player from a barn with strong turf sprint credentials, making Sawyer Fox (4) a prime secondary win candidate.

Scott Becker sends out Lucky Destiny (6), providing a capable runner at the claiming level. Cheryl Winebaugh's Moonrise Drive (2) in Race 6 is a well-placed entry in the non-winners-of-two condition.

Trainers such as Omar Razvi (Nagy And Da Bears (2)), Eduardo Rodriguez (We Miss Arlington (5) and Strange Arrange (10)), Christopher Davis (Jock Frost (5) and Royally Sassy (8)), Manny Perez (Cash App Mike (4), Hard To Fathom (5), Wolf Hunter (1), and Game Santa (4)), Heriberto Villalobos (Storm Back (3), Line To Gain (1), New Year Surprise (2), and Cantarito (5)), and others collectively contribute to a competitive and deep card where barn patterns and placement can guide betting decisions.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Multi-race exotics are attractive on this card. An early daily double or pick 3 anchored by Journey (3) in Race 1 and Ciao Tommaso (1) or Ketchum (2) in Race 2 makes sense, especially if you view Journey (3) as having a tactical trip advantage and Ciao Tommaso (1) as a genuine turf-upside horse.

A mid-card sequence, such as a pick 3 covering Races 3–5, can be structured with Coni's Coup (3) and People Force (4) as primary “A” horses in Race 3, Rockfest (1) and Mischievous Richie (5) as main players in Race 4, and Even The Wind (6) as a likely single or main anchor in Race 5 with Sawyer Fox (4) and We Miss Arlington (5) as backups.

The late pick 4 covering Races 4–7 is particularly appealing. In Race 4, use Rockfest (1), Mischievous Richie (5), This Beau Knows (3), and Rocky Raccoon (2). In Race 5, lean on Even The Wind (6), Sawyer Fox (4), We Miss Arlington (5), and Mr. Sweets (7), with Racarino (8) and Strange Arrange (10) as deeper coverage. In Race 6, Wolf Hunter (1) is a key single, with Moonrise Drive (2) and Cantarito (5) as backups. In Race 7, anchor with Royally Sassy (8), supported by Floribunda (7) and Peacock Road (6).

From a value standpoint, several horses appear capable of outperforming their morning lines. Coach Jimi D (2) in Race 1, Storm Back (3) and Dynamis (7) in Race 2, Hard To Fathom (5) in Race 3, Rocky Raccoon (2) and Thiever (4) in Race 4, Shake Up (1) and Mr. Sweets (7) in Race 5, Cantarito (5) in Race 6, and Roaring Vixen (1) and April's Gem (3) in Race 7 all hold realistic chances to improve on their perceived odds and should be incorporated in exotics when building for potential overlays.

Overall, the card shapes up with a mix of strong favorites—Journey (3), Ciao Tommaso (1), Rockfest (1), Even The Wind (6), Wolf Hunter (1), and Royally Sassy (8)—and genuine value alternatives. Careful use of these horses as singles, “A/B” types, and spread runners in multi-race bets, combined with pace-aware vertical strategies, offers serious bettors multiple paths to exploit the day's opportunities at Hawthorne.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback