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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.
Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.
Show the numbers
| Week | What we said | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | 3.0% | 3.6% |
| 7% | 7.4% | 8.4% |
| 12% | 12.4% | 13.7% |
| 18% | 18.1% | 20.8% |
| 26% | 26.0% | 29.8% |
| 39% | 39.2% | 43.7% |
Race Day Overview — Laurel Park, Saturday, November 14, 2026
Laurel Park hosts a full nine-race card on Saturday, November 14, 2026, headlined by the $100,000 Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes in Race 9, an 11-furlong dirt route for older fillies and mares. The card features a strong mix of maiden, claiming, allowance, and stakes action, with turf and dirt races spread across the program. The Thirty Eight Go Go drew a full field of eleven, including Grade 3 winner Dazzling Move (POST 4), morning line favorite Waveless (POST 8) from the red-hot barn of trainer Brittany Russell, and comebacking Amalfi Drive (POST 3) trained by Michael Stidham. Aeolian (POST 6), trained by Chad Brown and making her first start for the barn, adds an intriguing angle to the feature. The card also features competitive turf maiden events in Races 1 and 3, a pair of allowance tests in Races 6 and 7, and a maiden special weight turf sprint in Race 8 that shapes up as a contentious affair.
The Claiming Crown is running simultaneously at Churchill Downs today, drawing some horseplayer attention away from regional cards, but Laurel's Thirty Eight Go Go and the allowance races provide more than enough meat for serious exotic players.
Weather and Track Conditions — Laurel Park, November 14, 2026
November mid-Atlantic weather typically brings cool, overcast conditions to the Laurel Park oval. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 40s Fahrenheit through the afternoon card, with limited precipitation risk. The turf course has seen active use through the fall meet and should be rated firm-to-good, though any overnight moisture could soften the going to good or yielding. The main dirt track is anticipated to be fast or good, with standard fall conditions prevailing.
Laurel's turf course comes into mid-November in solid condition following a productive fall meet. Any late-week rainfall in the Baltimore-Washington corridor can soften the course quickly, so turf players should remain alert to official condition changes posted on race day.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis — Laurel Park
Laurel Park's main dirt oval is a one-mile track with a relatively short stretch run. Speed horses working from inside posts enjoy a meaningful structural advantage in sprint distances, particularly at six furlongs where horses rushing through the first turn from the inside have the shortest path. In routes on the main track, inside posts can be a slight disadvantage in full fields due to rail traffic, while mid-draw positions from posts four through eight tend to perform well. Closers have shown the ability to get up in the stretch when pace is honest, but speed with tactical position typically controls.
On the turf course at Laurel, the inside posts can present a problem in the larger fields where horses get squeezed early. Mid-to-outside draws often allow horses to find position more cleanly. In turf sprints and routes with full fields of twelve or more, posts in the five-through-ten range have historically proven most productive at this venue. Outside posts beyond twelve are genuinely disadvantaged at the extended turf routes, as horses must cover extra ground. Players should factor post position into their handicapping, particularly in Races 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8, all of which are contested on the turf.
RACE 1 — Post (12:00) — 1210f | T | M | Md 16000 | BUN | Purse $24,000
This is a sixteen-horse field of maiden claimers going a mile and a half on the turf, restricted to horses that have not won two races. At $16,000 claiming price on the turf, this is a low-rung event that nonetheless attracted a full field. The extended mile and a half distance on grass tests stamina in a way that separates true route types from horses simply being stretched out for the first time.
Pace Analysis
With sixteen horses in the field and a mile and a half on the turf, pace is likely to be moderate early. Few horses at this level are confirmed front-runners at this distance, and the field should settle into a relatively slow, tactical affair before the tempo increases heading into the final turn. Horses that can rate comfortably in mid-pack and produce a sustained late kick over the firm turf are preferred. The pace scenario benefits closers and horses with turf stamina.
Key Contenders
Regency Tale (POST 3), trained by A. Ferris Allen III and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, opens at 2-1 on the morning line and figures as the public choice. Allen is one of the most active trainers at Laurel and has shown consistent ability to place maiden claimers appropriately. The 2-1 price reflects confidence from connections that this horse fits the spot at this level.
Notion In Motion (POST 8), trained by Alexandra White and ridden by Jorge Ruiz, is co-favored at 2-1 and comes from a barn that has shown solid results at Laurel. At the extended turf route, POST 8 represents a workable draw in a full field of sixteen.
Danner (POST 14), trained by W. Robert Bailes and listed at 2-1 on the morning line, shares the co-favorite status and represents a third serious contender at the top of the market. Having multiple co-favorites in a maiden claimer creates value opportunities for exotics. Handicappers have pointed to Danner (POST 14) as a horse with legitimate credentials at this level.
Secondary Choices
House Of David (POST 4), trained by Cathal Lynch and ridden by Jose A. Batista, opens at 4-1 and merits attention. Lynch is a trainer who consistently places horses competitively in maiden claiming events on the turf, and the 4-1 morning line represents fair value if this horse has shown any form.
M D Fieldstone (POST 9), trained by Kevin C. Boniface and ridden by Jean Gregor Briceno, is also listed at 4-1 and cannot be overlooked. POST 9 is a strong draw in a full field for turf routing. Boniface has quietly assembled solid winning numbers at Laurel this meet.
Saltwater Crew (POST 16), trained by Karin Wagner and ridden by Julio A. Hernandez, opens at 4-1 from the extreme outside post. The outside draw at a mile and a half on turf is a concern in a full field, and the horse will need to find cover early. The 4-1 price may undervalue the post position penalty.
Longshots
Mantua Man (POST 15), trained by William Dowling and ridden by Angel Cruz, is listed at 8-1 and represents modest value from a tough outside post.
Beautiful Quality (POST 2), trained by Susan S. Cooney and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, opens at 10-1 and cannot be entirely dismissed from a favorable inside draw.
Avigliano (POST 5), trained by Oscar G. Mancilla and ridden by Carlos Eduardo Lopez, is 12-1 and faces a tough assignment in a full field.
Oath And Honour (POST 7), trained by Kelsie Shotzberger and ridden by Jose E. Vargas, opens at 15-1 and falls firmly in the longshot category.
Frazil (POST 3 in Race 3 but referenced here correctly) — the remaining horses in this race include Bright Time (POST 1) at 20-1, Injustice (POST 6) at 20-1, Irish Divo (POST 10) at 20-1, Teddy P (POST 12) at 20-1, Canadian Dangler (POST 13) at 20-1, and Band Tour (POST 11) at 30-1. These horses are extreme longshots at this level and in this large field, and would only merit inclusion in wide exotic structures.
Selections
Win: Regency Tale (POST 3) Place: Notion In Motion (POST 8) Show: House Of David (POST 4)
Betting strategy: The three co-favorites at 2-1 make this a tricky race for straight wagering. The race is better attacked through exacta boxes using the top three favorites and an overlay such as House Of David (POST 4) or M D Fieldstone (POST 9) underneath. In a sixteen-horse turf route at this level, consider a small trifecta part-wheel using Regency Tale (POST 3) and Notion In Motion (POST 8) on top with House Of David (POST 4), M D Fieldstone (POST 9), and Saltwater Crew (POST 16) completing the tickets.
RACE 2 — Post (12:28) — 1870f | D | HO | ROC 1-65 | BUN | Purse $29,000
A nine-horse field of horses and geldings going about a mile and an eighth on the main dirt track in a claiming event restricted to horses with one win or fewer. The small field should produce clear pace dynamics and a relatively straightforward wagering race.
Pace Analysis
Hurry Hurry (POST 2), the 2-1 morning line favorite trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Jamie Rodriguez, is likely to set or contend for the early pace. The front-running dynamic in a nine-horse field at a mile and an eighth on dirt will be critical. If Hurry Hurry (POST 2) is allowed to roll uncontested, the race becomes very difficult. If other speed challenges, the pace could collapse and set up a stalker or closer.
Majestic Blue (POST 1) and Real Macho (POST 7) may also have forward inclinations, which could create a scenario where the pace is contested and sets up for a presser or closer.
Key Contenders
Hurry Hurry (POST 2), trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Jamie Rodriguez, is the clear morning line choice at 2-1. Ness is one of the more reliable claiming trainers in the Maryland-Virginia circuit and has strong numbers routing on the dirt. At a mile and an eighth, Hurry Hurry (POST 2) should be forwardly placed and difficult to pass if the pace is comfortable.
Majestic Blue (POST 1), trained by John E. Salzman Jr. and ridden by J.S. Rocco Jr., opens at 4-1. Salzman is a Laurel claiming barn staple with a solid book of business, and POST 1 at a mile and an eighth on dirt can be advantageous from a stalking position.
Real Macho (POST 7), trained by Kevin J. Joy and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, also opens at 4-1 and merits consideration. Joy has posted productive numbers at this circuit, and Real Macho (POST 7) could be in the right spot.
Secondary Choices
Secret Zipper (POST 4), trained by Gary A. Capuano and ridden by Leandro M. Briceno, opens at 6-1. Capuano is one of the most established trainers in Maryland racing and places horses with precision. This barn's presence at 6-1 in a spot like this deserves respect.
Cap Com (POST 5), trained by Somraj Singh and ridden by Jose E. Vargas, is also 6-1. Singh has had some success at Laurel in the claiming ranks, and Cap Com (POST 5) draws the pivotal five-post.
Longshots
Brindano (POST 3), trained by Sergio H. Pradenas and ridden by Warren Ebow III, is 10-1 and faces a tough test.
Roll On Jesse (POST 8), trained by Kenneth M. Cox and ridden by Angel Cruz, is 10-1 and lurks as a mild closer.
Crossland (POST 6), trained by Kerry Hohlbein and ridden by Gerardo Rabadan, is 20-1 and is an extreme longshot.
Union Fleet (POST 9), trained by Jose J. Magana and ridden by Kevin Gomez, is 30-1 from the outside post and is a last-resort exotics inclusion only.
Selections
Win: Hurry Hurry (POST 2) Place: Majestic Blue (POST 1) Show: Secret Zipper (POST 4)
Betting strategy: Back Hurry Hurry (POST 2) to win and use in exactas over Majestic Blue (POST 1), Real Macho (POST 7), and Secret Zipper (POST 4). If Hurry Hurry (POST 2) gets uncontested fractions at a mile and an eighth, this could be a gate-to-wire score. The 2-1 price is fair but not a standout overlay. Focus on the exacta using Hurry Hurry (POST 2) on top with the 4-1 and 6-1 horses underneath for modest returns.
RACE 3 — Post (12:56) — 1760f | T | M | Md 25000 | AOF | Purse $30,000
A sixteen-horse maiden claimer for older fillies and mares going a mile and three-sixteenths on the turf. At $25,000 maiden claiming, this is a mid-range class test on the grass for a large field of fillies and mares. This is a wide-open race with numerous contenders.
Pace Analysis
With sixteen fillies and mares going an extended turf route, pace is expected to be moderate and tactical. The large field means early positioning will be contested but not necessarily fast. Horses that can settle in mid-pack and produce a sustained move in the final quarter-mile on firm turf are ideally suited. Good Wishes (POST 8) and Mega Moxie (POST 14) may both want to be relatively forward, though at this distance on turf the race is likely to be won from a stalking position.
Key Contenders
Good Wishes (POST 8), trained by Michael R. Matz and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, opens at 2-1 and is the clear morning line favorite. Matz is one of the most respected turf trainers in the country, and when this barn runs fillies at an extended turf distance at a price that positions them as favorites, the angle demands respect. Sanchez is one of the top jockeys at Laurel and handles the large field capably.
Open Range (POST 9), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Jorge Ruiz, is 3-1 on the morning line. Trombetta is among the premier trainers at Laurel Park and has strong numbers with turf maidens. POST 9 is an excellent draw for a sixteen-horse turf route. This horse has the pedigree and trainer to suggest a competitive effort.
Mega Moxie (POST 14), trained by Erin C. McClellan and ridden by Inoel Beato, opens at 5-1 and represents a possible overlay. POST 14 in a field of sixteen presents a mild wide-draw disadvantage, but horses at this price with reasonable credentials deserve a look.
Secondary Choices
Air Kiss (POST 2), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Forest Boyce, is 4-1 and gives Trombetta a second look in this race. Trombetta saddling two horses in the same maiden claimer is notable, and Air Kiss (POST 2) draws the rail-adjacent post. If Trombetta's intent is to win with one of the two, handicappers must assess which horse the barn prefers. POST 2 is a reasonable draw.
Panning For Gold (POST 5), trained by Justin Nixon and ridden by Wesley Ho, is 8-1 and could be an overlay. POST 5 is a clean middle draw in a field of sixteen on the turf.
La Perico (POST 11), trained by Jose Juan Vazquez and ridden by Kevin Gomez, is 10-1 and is a mild longshot worth small exotics inclusion.
Longshots
Virginia Fab (POST 12), trained by Susan S. Cooney and ridden by Carlos Eduardo Lopez, is 12-1.
Frazil (POST 3), trained by A. Ferris Allen III and ridden by Raul E. Mena, is 15-1. Allen saddles both Frazil (POST 3) and Sense The Moon (POST 6) in this race.
Thick But Quick (POST 16), trained by Anthony Farrior and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, is 15-1 from the extreme outside post. The wide draw is a significant negative.
Venapoint (POST 15), trained by Fenneka Bentley and ridden by J.S. Rocco Jr., is 20-1.
A. P. Class (POST 4), trained by Kevin C. Boniface and ridden by Jean Gregor Briceno, is 20-1.
Sense The Moon (POST 6), trained by A. Ferris Allen III and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, is 30-1.
Liam Reward (POST 7), trained by Robert A. Werneth and ridden by Barrington Bell, is 30-1.
Tuvana (POST 10), trained by Jonathan Maldonado and ridden by Wilfredo Corujo, is 30-1.
Conventional (POST 13), trained by Madison F. Meyers and ridden by Vincent Cheminaud, is 30-1.
Sorica (POST 1), trained by Hugh I. McMahon and ridden by Leandro M. Briceno, is 30-1 from the rail.
Selections
Win: Good Wishes (POST 8) Place: Open Range (POST 9) Show: Air Kiss (POST 2)
Betting strategy: The Trombetta double entry of Open Range (POST 9) and Air Kiss (POST 2) creates a coupled entry if the track groups them, but check race day conditions. Use Good Wishes (POST 8) and Open Range (POST 9) as the backbone of an exacta, and build trifecta tickets using Air Kiss (POST 2) and Mega Moxie (POST 14) in the third position. The wide fields in Races 1 and 3 open the door to meaningful trifecta and superfecta payouts.
RACE 4 — Post (1:25) — 1210f | D | M | Md 35000 | AOF | Purse $37,000
Fourteen fillies and mares go six furlongs on the main dirt track in a maiden claimer. At $35,000, this is a relatively respectable maiden claiming level for Maryland racing, and the six-furlong sprint on dirt should produce a quick pace.
Pace Analysis
Perpetual Notion (POST 3) and Ayni (POST 4) figure to be forwardly placed, and their combined presence creates a scenario where the pace could be honest. If two or more horses press the front from the gates, the race will likely set up for a stalker coming off the pace. The six-furlong distance on dirt at Laurel puts a premium on early speed combined with stamina, and horses that can sit two or three lengths off the pace in a good position are well-suited.
Key Contenders
Perpetual Notion (POST 3), trained by Gary A. Capuano and ridden by Emanuel Rosario, is the 2-1 morning line favorite. Capuano's barn is one of the most respected at Laurel, and placing a 2-1 favorite in a maiden claimer for fillies and mares at six furlongs on dirt suggests strong confidence. Rosario is one of the more accomplished jockeys at this meet.
Ayni (POST 4), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, opens at 3-1. Trombetta's barn is on a strong run at this meet, and Ayni (POST 4) draws the four-post in a fourteen-horse field, which is advantageous at six furlongs. Sanchez provides the race's best jockey, and this horse must be respected at 3-1.
Bubbling (POST 5), trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Jamie Rodriguez, is 5-1. Ness has excelled with female maidens at Laurel and this entry is well-positioned inside the break.
Secondary Choices
Alta Vista Chapel (POST 2), trained by John J. Robb and ridden by Xavier Perez, opens at 6-1 and cannot be dismissed. POST 2 is a clean draw at six furlongs.
Jennyfromtheblock (POST 11), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Jevian Toledo, is 12-1. Trombetta again deploys two runners in a maiden event, with Jennyfromtheblock (POST 11) drawing a wide post. This is Trombetta's secondary runner and may represent the barn's backup plan.
Longshots
Legend's Girl (POST 12), trained by Joseph M. Murphy and ridden by Leandro M. Briceno, is 15-1.
Ronnarock (POST 8), trained by A. Ferris Allen III and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, is 15-1.
Janies Gotta Run (POST 10), trained by Henry Walters and ridden by Carlos Eduardo Lopez, is 20-1.
The remaining horses — Sao Siam (POST 1) at 30-1, American Steele (POST 6) at 30-1, Jaggery (POST 7) at 30-1, Lyrical Jewel (POST 9) at 30-1, Playa Encanto (POST 13) at 30-1, and Soapbox (POST 14) at 30-1 — are extreme longshots and merit only token exotic inclusion in deep trifecta and superfecta tickets.
Selections
Win: Perpetual Notion (POST 3) Place: Ayni (POST 4) Show: Bubbling (POST 5)
Betting strategy: The 2-1 and 3-1 morning line prices on Perpetual Notion (POST 3) and Ayni (POST 4) make a straight exacta between them the most logical play. Consider boxing those two with Bubbling (POST 5) and Alta Vista Chapel (POST 2) in an exacta box or trifecta part-wheel. If the two top favorites run to their morning line, the exacta payout should be modest. Look for value in the trifecta third leg using Bubbling (POST 5) or Alta Vista Chapel (POST 2).
RACE 5 — Post (1:54) — 1210f | T | AO | OClm 40000n2x | BUM | Purse $53,000
Eleven older fillies and mares go a mile and a half on the turf in an optional claiming event restricted to non-winners of two. The $53,000 purse reflects the step up in class from the maiden claimers, and this field likely contains seasoned turf types with legitimate credentials.
Pace Analysis
Mopo (POST 9), the odds-on 1-1 morning line favorite trained by Phillip Capuano and ridden by Forest Boyce, is likely the class of this field and will attract plenty of support. At a mile and a half on turf, pace is expected to be patient and tactical. The question is whether any horse will push Mopo (POST 9) early enough to soften the favorite for closers. Cougar Cocktail (POST 6) may have some forward speed, and Rerun Table (POST 7) trained by John E. Salzman Jr. and ridden by J.S. Rocco Jr. could be positioned close to the pace.
Key Contenders
Mopo (POST 9), trained by Phillip Capuano and ridden by Forest Boyce, is the heavy 1-1 favorite. Capuano's turf operation at Laurel has been effective, and an odds-on price in an optional claimer for older mares at a mile and a half on turf signals very strong form. Boyce is a capable turf jockey with solid numbers at Laurel. At this price, Mopo (POST 9) must be respected as the dominant selection, though value-seekers will look to beat her.
Cougar Cocktail (POST 6), trained by Brittany T. Russell and ridden by Sheldon Russell, opens at 4-1. The Russell barn is the hottest operation at Laurel Park, and Cougar Cocktail (POST 6) draws a favorable middle post. The husband-wife trainer-jockey combination of Brittany and Sheldon Russell have been a dominant force on this meet.
Come To Mama (POST 1), trained by Sarah White and ridden by H.A. Karamanos, opens at 5-1. The rail post at a mile and a half on turf is a concern in an eleven-horse field, but Come To Mama (POST 1) could rate close to the pace and maintain the inside path.
Secondary Choices
Rerun Table (POST 7), trained by John E. Salzman Jr. and ridden by J.S. Rocco Jr., opens at 5-1. Salzman has experience placing optional claimers at this circuit, and POST 7 draws well for a turf route.
Spencer Tiara (POST 2), trained by Hugh I. McMahon and ridden by Sheldon Russell, is 6-1. Wait — SHELDON RUSSELL is listed as the jockey for both Spencer Tiara (POST 2) and Cougar Cocktail (POST 6) in this race. Players should confirm which horse Russell will ride on race day, as a jockey change will be significant. If Russell rides Cougar Cocktail (POST 6), then Spencer Tiara (POST 2) will receive a different rider and could drift in the market.
Big Earn (POST 8), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Jorge Ruiz, is 6-1. Trombetta's turf barn performs consistently at Laurel, and POST 8 draws inside the favorite.
Longshots
Quiet Confidence (POST 5), trained by James T. Ryerson and ridden by Angel Cruz, is 10-1.
Noquestionaboutit (POST 10), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, is 10-1. Trombetta again deploys multiple horses.
Lady Ensign (POST 4), trained by Hugh I. McMahon and ridden by Xavier Perez, is 15-1.
For The Ladies (POST 3), trained by Pedro Nazario and ridden by Raul E. Mena, is 20-1.
Wherever We Are (POST 11), trained by J. Michael Rogers and ridden by Martina Rojas, is 30-1 from the outside post.
Selections
Win: Mopo (POST 9) Place: Cougar Cocktail (POST 6) Show: Rerun Table (POST 7)
Betting strategy: At 1-1, backing Mopo (POST 9) to win offers minimal profit. The better play is to use Mopo (POST 9) on top in exactas with Cougar Cocktail (POST 6), Come To Mama (POST 1), and Rerun Table (POST 7) underneath. If Mopo (POST 9) is vulnerable, Cougar Cocktail (POST 6) at 4-1 is the most logical beneficiary given the Russell barn's current form. A small win bet on Cougar Cocktail (POST 6) to upset is worth considering.
RACE 6 — Post (2:23) — 1210f | T | A | Alw 49000n1x | BUN | Purse $49,000
Thirteen horses go a mile and a half on the turf in an allowance event for non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming, or starter. This is a sharp field of horses attempting to break their maiden allowance condition, and the $49,000 purse attracts legitimate stock.
Pace Analysis
World On Fire (POST 5), the 2-1 morning line favorite trained by Roy M. Peacock and ridden by Charlie Marquez, is likely to be forwardly placed in what should be a moderate early pace scenario. Brightshininglight (POST 6) and Jessica's Eyes (POST 4) may also want to be positioned close to the front. At a mile and a half on turf, the allowance field should produce a patient early pace with the race quickening in the final three furlongs.
Key Contenders
World On Fire (POST 5), trained by Roy M. Peacock and ridden by Charlie Marquez, is the 2-1 morning line favorite. Marquez is a capable rider at this circuit, and this horse likely has the best form in the field to justify the odds-line position. POST 5 is a clean draw for the extended turf route.
Brightshininglight (POST 6), trained by Eveline Kjelstrup and ridden by Tais Lyapustina, opens at 5-1. This is an intriguing barn angle with a female jockey pilot who has shown ability at Laurel. The 5-1 morning line may underestimate this horse if the connections believe they have a sharp turf runner.
Jessica's Eyes (POST 4), trained by John J. Robb and ridden by Xavier Perez, opens at 4-1. Robb's barn has consistent presence at Laurel, and POST 4 draws well for the turf route.
Secondary Choices
Daring Venture (POST 9), trained by Brittany T. Russell and ridden by Sheldon Russell, is 6-1. The Russell barn's current hot streak makes this horse especially dangerous at a price that represents fair value.
Boastfully Irish (POST 3), trained by H. Graham Motion and ridden by Jamie Rodriguez, is 8-1. Motion is a Hall of Fame trainer whose turf horses are consistently well-prepared. An 8-1 morning line from this barn in a one-turn turf allowance represents legitimate value. Boastfully Irish (POST 3) deserves strong consideration.
Longshots
Marvelous Mo (POST 10), trained by Michael V. Pino and ridden by Jorge Ruiz, is 10-1.
Big Bolton (POST 12), trained by Milan Milosevic and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, is 10-1.
Brikeli (POST 13), trained by Kyle M. Horlacher and ridden by Jatniel Ramos, is 12-1.
Alexis Zorba (POST 2), trained by Hugh I. McMahon and ridden by J.S. Rocco Jr., is 15-1.
Benny Havens (POST 1), trained by Anthony Aguirre Jr. and ridden by Wesley Ho, is 30-1 from the rail.
Borletti (POST 7), trained by Christine F. Clagett and ridden by Brittany Scampton, is 30-1.
Roommate Martin (POST 8), trained by James M. Casey and ridden by Kevin Gomez, is 30-1.
Thirst For Hope (POST 11), trained by Lynn Ashby and ridden by Jose A. Batista, is 30-1.
Selections
Win: World On Fire (POST 5) Place: Jessica's Eyes (POST 4) Show: Boastfully Irish (POST 3)
Betting strategy: Boastfully Irish (POST 3) at 8-1 from the Motion barn is the value play of this race. Use World On Fire (POST 5) and Jessica's Eyes (POST 4) as primary horses but include Boastfully Irish (POST 3) in all trifecta and exacta structures. The Motion angle at 8-1 on a turf route is worth a straight win bet. Build trifectas using World On Fire (POST 5) on top with Jessica's Eyes (POST 4), Boastfully Irish (POST 3), Brightshininglight (POST 6), and Daring Venture (POST 9) completing the tickets.
RACE 7 — Post (2:53) — 1320f | D | A | Alw 49000n1x | BUN | Purse $49,000
Eight horses go a mile and a sixteenth on the main dirt track in an allowance event for non-winners of one allowance. This tighter field should produce cleaner pace dynamics and a more straightforward wagering race than the larger turf events.
Pace Analysis
Frustrated (POST 2) and Southern Gentleman (POST 6), co-favorites at 2-1, dominate the morning line and are likely to generate honest pace. Winning Trip (POST 5) could also be forwardly positioned. At a mile and a sixteenth on dirt with two strong public horses, the pace figure will be critical. If both co-favorites press each other, Surgical Precision (POST 3) and Channel The Music (POST 8) could be set up for a closer's run.
Key Contenders
Frustrated (POST 2), trained by Brittany T. Russell and ridden by Sheldon Russell, is co-favored at 2-1. The Russell barn, the dominant training operation at Laurel this meet, fields two horses in this race. Frustrated (POST 2) draws the two-post and benefits from the Russell trainer-jockey partnership. At a mile and a sixteenth on dirt, POST 2 is a good draw that allows for a stalking position on the rail.
Southern Gentleman (POST 6), trained by Michael Stidham and ridden by Jose A. Batista, shares the 2-1 morning line. Stidham is a prominent trainer whose dirt horses typically show up fit and class-ready. Southern Gentleman (POST 6) draws mid-field and should get a clean trip.
Surgical Precision (POST 3), trained by Brittany T. Russell and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, is 5-1. Russell fields two horses in this event, with Surgical Precision (POST 3) as the second string at 5-1. Sanchez in the irons suggests the barn may have genuine confidence in both horses. This creates an interesting coupled or uncoupled situation that players must monitor.
Secondary Choices
Winning Trip (POST 5), trained by Michael E. Gorham and ridden by Madeline Rowland, is 4-1 and may have forward speed that could soften the two co-favorites. If Winning Trip (POST 5) can sit just off the leaders in a stalking role, this price represents fair value.
Channel The Music (POST 8), trained by Jorge Duarte Jr. and ridden by H.A. Karamanos, is 8-1. Karamanos is a sharp tactical rider, and Channel The Music (POST 8) from the outside post could find a wide closing trip if the pace collapses.
Longshots
Lundi Loot (POST 4), trained by Lynn Ashby and ridden by J.S. Rocco Jr., is 15-1.
Fear Nothing (POST 7), trained by Hamilton A. Smith and ridden by Jose E. Vargas, is 12-1.
Mo's Glitter (POST 1), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Jamie Rodriguez, is 20-1 from the rail.
Selections
Win: Frustrated (POST 2) Place: Southern Gentleman (POST 6) Show: Winning Trip (POST 5)
Betting strategy: With two co-favorites at 2-1, the exacta between Frustrated (POST 2) and Southern Gentleman (POST 6) may pay minimally. The value play is to use Surgical Precision (POST 3) underneath in exactas, as the Russell double entry means both horses are well-meant, and 5-1 is an overlay if Sanchez is on board. Build trifectas using either co-favorite on top with Surgical Precision (POST 3), Winning Trip (POST 5), and Channel The Music (POST 8) in the third position.
RACE 8 — Post (3:23) — 1210f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $47,000
Nine fillies and mares go a mile and a half on the turf in a maiden special weight event. This is a notch above the maiden claiming fields and attracts better-bred stock. Three co-favorites at 2-1 dominate the morning line.
Pace Analysis
With three co-favorites in a nine-horse field at a mile and a half on turf, pace is expected to be moderate. Steel The Moment (POST 6), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, is likely to be forwardly placed. Lux (POST 1) and Rocker Roller (POST 3) are also favored and will find comfortable positions in the smaller field. The patient pace scenario at this distance could suit a closer who can accelerate late.
Key Contenders
Lux (POST 1), trained by Justin Rivera and ridden by Kevin Gomez, is co-favored at 2-1. Rivera's barn has shown steady improvement at Laurel, and POST 1 at a mile and a half on turf is not necessarily a disadvantage in a nine-horse field. Gomez is an active rider at this circuit.
Rocker Roller (POST 3), trained by Brittany T. Russell and ridden by Sheldon Russell, is co-favored at 2-1. The Russell barn's dominance at Laurel is well-documented, and Rocker Roller (POST 3) draws a clean inside post. This horse must be respected as one of the top selections.
Steel The Moment (POST 6), trained by Michael J. Trombetta and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, is the third co-favorite at 2-1. Trombetta's turf operations are among the best in Maryland, and Sanchez provides top-level guidance. POST 6 is an excellent draw in a field of nine.
Secondary Choices
Mad Misty (POST 9), trained by Timothy L. Keefe and ridden by Forest Boyce, is 3-1. The outside post in a nine-horse turf field is not a severe penalty, and Mad Misty (POST 9) could find a clean closing trip. Boyce has posted consistent numbers on Laurel's turf course.
Longshots
Mischief Storm (POST 8), trained by Jennifer M. Truehart and ridden by Luis M. Ocasio, is 12-1.
Gypsy Style (POST 7), trained by Cesareo Marquez and ridden by Jose R. Betancourt, is 15-1.
Hello Hoppertunity (POST 2), trained by Diana L. McClure and ridden by Carlos Eduardo Lopez, is 20-1.
Last Treasure (POST 4), trained by Lawrence M. Smith and ridden by Tais Lyapustina, is 20-1.
Justice You Say (POST 5), trained by Daniel W. Siculietano and ridden by Jacqueline A. Davis, is 30-1.
Selections
Win: Steel The Moment (POST 6) Place: Rocker Roller (POST 3) Show: Mad Misty (POST 9)
Betting strategy: Three co-favorites at 2-1 in a nine-horse maiden special weight create a tricky wagering environment. The exacta between any two of the three will pay minimally. The best value is to use all three favorites on top in trifectas with Mad Misty (POST 9) in the third position. If a longshot sneaks into the trifecta, the payout could be significant. Consider a small all-ticket superfecta using the three favorites and Mad Misty (POST 9) in multiple configurations.
RACE 9 — Post (3:52) — 1870f | D | N | ThtyEhtGoB100k | BUM | Purse $100,000
The Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes is the featured event on the card, drawing a full field of eleven older fillies and mares going a mile and an eighth on the main dirt track. The $100,000 purse and stakes conditions attract regional class, and the field includes a Grade 3 winner, a morning line favorite from the dominant barn at this meet, a comebacking stakes filly, and a Chad Brown import.
Pace Analysis
Waveless (POST 8), the 2-1 morning line favorite, is likely to be forwardly placed and could set a solid pace. Ivy Girl (POST 1) and Amalfi Drive (POST 3) may also want to be positioned up front. The pace scenario is likely to be honest given the class of the field and the connections' desire to be in a good position through the first turn. A contested early pace could set up for closers Aeolian (POST 6) and Dazzling Move (POST 4), who may prefer to come from off the pace.
Key Contenders
Waveless (POST 8), trained by Brittany T. Russell and ridden by Sheldon Russell, is the 2-1 morning line favorite. The Russell barn has dominated this meet, and running their top horse in the stakes feature with the Russell jockey-trainer combination is a powerful angle. Waveless (POST 8) is likely to be aggressively bet and could go off at odds shorter than the morning line. POST 8 is a workable draw at a mile and an eighth on dirt.
Dazzling Move (POST 4), trained by Carlos A. David and ridden by Angel Cruz, is 4-1. As a Grade 3 winner, Dazzling Move (POST 4) brings the highest class credentials in the field. David has had success shipping fillies to Maryland stakes events, and Cruz is a capable stakes rider. Dazzling Move (POST 4) from POST 4 should get a clean trip stalking the early pace.
Amalfi Drive (POST 3), trained by Michael Stidham and ridden by Jose A. Batista, is 4-1. Stidham is a well-regarded national trainer who shipped this filly to Laurel, suggesting confidence. Amalfi Drive (POST 3) is described as a comebacking stakes performer, which is an intriguing angle if the layoff has been used productively. POST 3 is a clean inside draw.
Secondary Choices
Aeolian (POST 6), trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Jorge Ruiz, opens at 5-1. Brown is one of the leading trainers in North America, with exceptional numbers with fillies and mares on the dirt and turf. When Brown ships to Maryland for a $100,000 stakes, the connection is serious. Aeolian (POST 6) is listed as making her first start for the barn, which is a notable angle when the trainer is Brown. The 5-1 morning line may underestimate this horse's true potential. This is the race's top value selection.
Especially (POST 7), trained by Brittany T. Russell and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, is 6-1. Russell deploys two horses in the stakes, with Especially (POST 7) as the second entry. Sanchez on the second Russell horse at 6-1 is a strong jockey angle, and the Russell barn clearly believes both horses are competitive.
Longshots
Pink Ruby (POST 9), trained by Lindsay Schultz and ridden by Jamie Rodriguez, is 15-1.
Delray (POST 10), trained by Bruce M. Kravets and ridden by Vincent Cheminaud, is 15-1.
Ivy Girl (POST 1), trained by Amelia J. Green and ridden by Jevian Toledo, is 20-1. The comebacking angle for Ivy Girl (POST 1), noted in pre-race coverage, adds mild interest at this price, though the 20-1 morning line reflects that this horse has not shown recent top form.
Doctor Abbie (POST 2), trained by Timothy C. Kreiser and ridden by Angel R. Rodriguez, is 20-1.
Late Nite Call (POST 5), trained by Niall Saville and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, is 30-1.
Gold Digging Broad (POST 11), trained by Miguel Vera and ridden by Jean Gregor Briceno, is 30-1 from the outside post.
Selections
Win: Aeolian (POST 6) Place: Dazzling Move (POST 4) Show: Waveless (POST 8)
Betting strategy: Aeolian (POST 6) at 5-1 from Chad Brown's barn is the standout value play on the card. Brown's stakes record with fillies in route races is elite, and 5-1 against the morning line favorite Waveless (POST 8) at 2-1 is a worthwhile overlay. Use Aeolian (POST 6) to win and in exactas over Waveless (POST 8), Dazzling Move (POST 4), and Especially (POST 7). Build trifectas with Aeolian (POST 6) and Dazzling Move (POST 4) on top and Waveless (POST 8), Especially (POST 7), and Amalfi Drive (POST 3) in the third position. This is the race to anchor your late Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequences.
RACE 10 — Post (4:22) — 1320f | D | M | Md 12500 | BUN | Purse $22,000
The final race of the card is a nine-horse maiden claimer for $12,500 going a mile and a sixteenth on the main dirt track. At the bottom of the class ladder, this race will be the least predictable event on the card and should produce generous exotic payouts.
Pace Analysis
Cool Customer (POST 4), the heavy 1-1 morning line favorite, draws the pivotal inside post and is expected to control or be near the early pace. Atlantic Cat (POST 2), the 2-1 second choice, should also be forwardly positioned. The two public horses battling for position at the head of the stretch could soften both for a late runner.
Key Contenders
Cool Customer (POST 4), trained by W. Robert Bailes and ridden by Leandro M. Briceno, is the 1-1 morning line favorite. Bailes has a solid record with maiden claimers at Laurel, and the 1-1 price in a bottom-level claimer signals strong local confidence. POST 4 draws cleanly at a mile and a sixteenth.
Atlantic Cat (POST 2), trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Jamie Rodriguez, is 2-1. Ness has been effective at this meet with multiple winners, and Atlantic Cat (POST 2) draws inside the favorite with a favorable post.
Secondary Choices
Vida (POST 3), trained by Somraj Singh and ridden by Jose E. Vargas, opens at 6-1. Singh is an active claiming trainer at Laurel, and Vida (POST 3) draws between the two top public horses. At 6-1, this is worth including in exotic structures.
Hopeygot (POST 7), trained by Karin Wagner and ridden by Julio A. Hernandez, is 10-1 and represents modest longshot value.
Longshots
Q Got Hops (POST 1), trained by Somraj Singh and ridden by Matilda Burnham, is 15-1 from the rail. Singh again deploys two horses in this race with Vida (POST 3) and Q Got Hops (POST 1).
Ryder (POST 8), trained by Joseph Woodit and ridden by Jasmine McGuin, is 15-1.
Louisville Liam (POST 6), trained by A. Ferris Allen III and ridden by Jeiron Barbosa, is 20-1.
Carolina Casanova (POST 9), trained by A. Ferris Allen III and ridden by Mychel J. Sanchez, is 20-1. Allen again deploys two horses.
Billy Boy (POST 5), trained by Miguel Vera and ridden by Raul E. Mena, is 30-1.
Selections
Win: Cool Customer (POST 4) Place: Atlantic Cat (POST 2) Show: Vida (POST 3)
Betting strategy: At 1-1, Cool Customer (POST 4) offers no value to win. The race is best approached through exactas using Cool Customer (POST 4) and Atlantic Cat (POST 2) in both directions, with Vida (POST 3) underneath for trifecta purposes. If Cool Customer (POST 4) wins easily, the exacta payout will be modest. The real lottery play is to include Hopeygot (POST 7) or Vida (POST 3) on top of an upset exacta with the two favorites underneath, should either of the public horses underperform.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Sheldon Russell remains one of the busiest and most effective riders at this Laurel meet, and his association with Brittany Russell's barn creates a formidable combination. Russell is engaged in Races 2 (removed from the card after scheduling), 5, 7, 8, and 9 today, with particular relevance in Race 7 aboard Frustrated (POST 2), Race 8 aboard Rocker Roller (POST 3), and Race 9 aboard Waveless (POST 8). Players should note that Russell appears to be listed as the pilot for multiple horses in Race 5 — Spencer Tiara (POST 2) and Cougar Cocktail (POST 6) — which requires a race-day jockey change resolution. The rider who retains the Russell mount will almost certainly be on the barn's best horse.
Mychel J. Sanchez is one of the top jockeys at Laurel and appears throughout this card, most critically aboard Ayni (POST 4) in Race 4, Steel The Moment (POST 6) in Race 8, Especially (POST 7) in Race 9, and Carolina Casanova (POST 9) in Race 10. Sanchez on a Trombetta horse in a maiden special weight or allowance event is a bankable angle on this circuit.
Jeiron Barbosa has a heavy book of work today across multiple races and brings strong local numbers. He rides Regency Tale (POST 3) in Race 1 and appears multiple times throughout the card for Allen and other barns.
Angel Cruz rides Dazzling Move (POST 4) in the featured Thirty Eight Go Go and is capable of delivering a strong performance in the stakes setting.
Jevian Toledo, one of the leading riders in the Mid-Atlantic, picks up the mount on Ivy Girl (POST 1) in the Thirty Eight Go Go, which could signal minor interest in the comebacker at 20-1, though the horse faces a tough assignment.
Jorge Ruiz, assigned to Aeolian (POST 6) in the feature for the Chad Brown barn, is a capable jockey who handles Brown horses shipping to smaller circuits effectively.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brittany T. Russell is unquestionably the standout training operation at Laurel this meet. Russell has horses in Races 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 today, with Waveless (POST 8) as her stakes representative in the Thirty Eight Go Go. The Russell barn deploys multiple entries in several races today, including two in Race 7 and two in Race 9. When the barn enters two horses with top jockeys, both are live. Frustrated (POST 2) in Race 7 and Waveless (POST 8) in Race 9 are the barn's most prominent selections.
Michael J. Trombetta is the most active trainer at Laurel, fielding horses in nearly every race on the card. Trombetta has strong numbers at this meet with turf maidens and allowance horses, and his multiple entries throughout the card — including Open Range (POST 9) and Air Kiss (POST 2) in Race 3, Ayni (POST 4) in Race 4, Big Earn (POST 8) in Race 5, and Steel The Moment (POST 6) in Race 8 — confirm his dominance. When Sanchez rides for Trombetta, the horse is especially live.
A. Ferris Allen III deploys the most horses on the card in terms of raw numbers, with runners in Races 1, 3, 4, and 10. Allen is an active Laurel trainer, and while his win percentage may not be elite, his horses are consistently fit and can run to their odds at reasonable prices.
Gary A. Capuano and Phillip Capuano both have horses on the card — Perpetual Notion (POST 3) in Race 4 for Gary and Mopo (POST 9) in Race 5 for Phillip. Both Capuano barns are well-established Maryland operations with solid records.
H. Graham Motion, the Hall of Fame turf specialist, saddles Boastfully Irish (POST 3) in Race 6 at 8-1. When Motion enters a horse at 8-1 in a turf allowance at Laurel, it represents genuine value.
Chad Brown, one of North America's leading trainers, ships Aeolian (POST 6) for the Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes. Brown's barn rarely enters horses in $100,000 Maryland stakes without serious intent. This is the most significant trainer angle of the day.
Jamie Ness has a productive book today, running Hurry Hurry (POST 2) in Race 2 and Bubbling (POST 5) in Race 4, with Atlantic Cat (POST 2) in Race 10. Ness has been effective at Laurel in the claiming ranks.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The standout value play on the entire Laurel card is Aeolian (POST 6) at 5-1 in Race 9. Chad Brown's barn taking time to ship to Laurel for a $100,000 stakes is an angle that demands financial commitment. Use Aeolian (POST 6) as the Win of the Day and include this horse prominently in all Race 9 exotic structures.
The second-best value play is Boastfully Irish (POST 3) at 8-1 in Race 6 for H. Graham Motion. Motion's turf horses at Laurel are consistently underbet by the casual public, and 8-1 in an allowance event at a mile and a half on turf is a price worth targeting.
For the late Pick 4 spanning Races 7 through 10: Use Frustrated (POST 2) or Southern Gentleman (POST 6) in Race 7, Steel The Moment (POST 6) or Rocker Roller (POST 3) in Race 8, Aeolian (POST 6) or Waveless (POST 8) in Race 9, and Cool Customer (POST 4) or Atlantic Cat (POST 2) in Race 10. A base ticket using singles or doubles in each leg creates manageable exposure.
For the Pick 5 spanning Races 6 through 10: Anchor Aeolian (POST 6) in Race 9 as a single, use World On Fire (POST 5) as a single in Race 6, and spread in Races 7, 8, and 10 to cover multiple outcomes. This structure creates a Pick 5 ticket where the Chad Brown horse at 5-1 provides the backbone and any longshot result in Races 7, 8, or 10 multiplies the payout substantially.
For daily double wagering, the Race 8-Race 9 double pairs Steel The Moment (POST 6) or Rocker Roller (POST 3) with Aeolian (POST 6), creating an attractive price if both fire.
The Russell barn exacta in Race 7 — Frustrated (POST 2) over Surgical Precision (POST 3) — is a legitimate pairing that may pay modestly but represents a confident barn's one-two punch.
Trifecta value is best found in Races 1, 3, and 10, where large fields or heavy favorites create opportunities for meaningful payouts when secondary horses fire. In Race 10, any result that includes Vida (POST 3) or Hopeygot (POST 7) in the top three alongside Cool Customer (POST 4) and Atlantic Cat (POST 2) could produce a trifecta payout in the hundreds of dollars.
The morning line odds suggest a card where value is concentrated in the allowance and stakes races rather than the lower-tier claimers. Aeolian (POST 6) in the Thirty Eight Go Go and Boastfully Irish (POST 3) in Race 6 represent the two horses most likely to provide positive return on investment across a full card of wagering.
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