Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet - Aqueduct Racetrack, March 15, 2026

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($40,000 → $25,000). (2) Speed average (74) well above field median (66). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (33%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 55 vs field 42). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Fourth race back from a 51-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (8) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (9) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Trainer 'KANTARMACI ILKAY' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (11) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (12) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Closer in Pace Duel, Won Here Before, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Stable on Fire, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: 5w upper; wknd late.

Mod1(W): 51 (4/5) Mod2(W): 69 (2/5) Mod3(W): 71 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 97 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 70 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 67 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 80 (3/5) Win Prob: 66.8% Value Score: 3.44 ★ ML: 3.00 (2/1) Overlay %: -0.86 Fair Odds: 4.39 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($40,000 → $25,000). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). (4) Consistent workout spacing (8, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Class Drop, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (60) well below field median (66). (3) Trip note from last race: 7w upper; no response.

Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 78 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 26 (5/5) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 39.4% Value Score: 6.59 ★ ML: 12.00 (10/1) Overlay %: 5.45 Fair Odds: 7.76 (7/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	F
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	F	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	F	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	F	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($40,000 → $25,000). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Career-best speed figure (79) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Big last-race effort (69) — 9 pts above recent average. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (6) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 97 vs field 89). (7) Fourth race back from a 126-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (8) Strong speed 2 back (79), modest dip last out (69) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (9) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Stable on Fire, Class Drop, Form Reversal, Early Speed Edge, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Dueled 2p; wknd late. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 17 days since last race. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 14.3 pts: [69, 79, 52, 48, 77]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 68.5% Value Score: 2.3 ★ ML: 1.60 (3/5) Overlay %: -8.02 Fair Odds: 3.58 (5/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). (2) Career-best speed figure (72) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Equipment change today (code: 1). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). (5) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 72). (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) Fourth race back from a 97-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (9) Strong speed 2 back (72), modest dip last out (67) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (10) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (11) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (12) Dropping in class ($25,000 vs last $30,000) after a 31-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (13) Returning from 31-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (14) Averages 69.7 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 55.0 in other configs (3 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (15) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop After Rest, Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Return Workout, Bullet Workout, Return to Proven Setup, Form Reversal, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Sharp Gate Work, Equipment Change, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 31 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Ins-3path turn;4p1/4. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.4 pts: [67, 72, 70, 46, 64]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 20 (5/5) Mod2(W): 6 (5/5) Mod3(W): 9 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 83 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 3 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 8 (5/5) Win Prob: 26.3% Value Score: 3.73 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 5.38 Fair Odds: 7.04 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	F	B
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	D	C
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	F	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	F	C
Route FPS	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	D	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	F	B
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 77 vs fast: 52). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (58%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 11 wins from 40 starts (28%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Trainer 'COX BRAD H' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Off-Track Preference, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 2p-ins turn;fought on. (5) Last race was career-best speed (77) — bounce risk after peak effort.

Mod1(W): 59 (3/5) Mod2(W): 45 (4/5) Mod3(W): 59 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 50 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 31 (4/5) Mod4(Form): 66 (4/5) Win Prob: 63.4% Value Score: 4.08 ★ ML: 4.00 (3/1) Overlay %: 1.11 Fair Odds: 5.01 (4/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	F	D
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($40,000 → $25,000). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 35 wins from 129 starts (27%). (4) Career-best speed figure (86) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 72). (7) Fourth race back from a 47-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (8) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (9) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (11) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (12) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Class Drop, Stable on Fire, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: 5-6w upper; mild kick.

Mod1(W): 63 (2/5) Mod2(W): 66 (3/5) Mod3(W): 80 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 92 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 69 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 74 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 87 (2/5) Win Prob: 71.1% Value Score: 3.2 ★ ML: 2.50 (3/2) Overlay %: -3.05 Fair Odds: 4.23 (3/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. (5) Trainer 'KANTARMACI ILKAY' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Career-best figure (90) buried in races 4–10 back — 11 pts above race median and 9 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'V']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Averages 83.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 77.9 in other configs (3 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Off-Track Ace, Hidden Figure, Return to Proven Setup, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 9 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Chased 2p; improved. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.0 pts: [81, 78, 60, 90, 74]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 35 (4/4) Mod2(W): 40 (4/4) Mod3(W): 31 (4/4) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 39 (4/4) Mod3-LS: 17 (4/4) Mod4(Form): 47 (4/4) Win Prob: 51.9% Value Score: 3.96 ★ ML: 5.00 (4/1) Overlay %: 6.47 Fair Odds: 4.11 (3/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	D	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 35 wins from 129 starts (27%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (4) In the money in last 6 consecutive starts. (5) Track specialist — 2 wins from 5 starts here (40%). (6) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 88). (7) Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Consistent In-The-Money, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Stable on Fire, Won at This Distance, Early Speed Edge, Track Specialist.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Dueled 3-2w; ran on.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/4) Mod2(W): 100 (1/4) Mod3(W): 100 (1/4) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/4) Win Prob: 87.3% Value Score: 2 ★ ML: 0.80 Overlay %: -17.52 Fair Odds: 2.82 (9/5) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (28%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 11 starts (27%). (3) Big last-race effort (88) — 9 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (5) In the money in last 4 consecutive starts. (6) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (7) Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. (9) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Consistent In-The-Money, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Off-Track Ace, Bullet Workout, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (74) well below field median (79). (3) Trip note from last race: 4-5p;drift in ins 3/16. (4) Last race was career-best speed (88) — bounce risk after peak effort.

Mod1(W): 56 (3/4) Mod2(W): 70 (2/4) Mod3(W): 58 (2/4) Mod1-LS: 6 (4/4) Mod2-LS: 57 (3/4) Mod3-LS: 81 (2/4) Mod4(Form): 66 (3/4) Win Prob: 60.6% Value Score: 3.47 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: 3.48 Fair Odds: 3.77 (3/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	D	A
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). (2) Career-best speed figure (87) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) Track specialist — 3 wins from 9 starts here (33%). (5) Strong speed 2 back (87), modest dip last out (80) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (6) Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Track Specialist.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 52 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Trip note from last race: Led 3p; dueled; wknd. (5) Stepping up to $45,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $30,000).

Mod1(W): 68 (2/4) Mod2(W): 65 (3/4) Mod3(W): 54 (3/4) Mod1-LS: 89 (2/4) Mod2-LS: 61 (2/4) Mod3-LS: 76 (3/4) Mod4(Form): 72 (2/4) Win Prob: 72.8% Value Score: 3.7 ★ ML: 3.00 (2/1) Overlay %: 0.78 Fair Odds: 3.89 (3/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	B	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	B	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($45,000 → $30,000). (2) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 100 vs fast: 94). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (31%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Last race E1 pace (85.0) was 4.3 pts above personal avg (80.7) and horse still finished 6th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (8) Career-best figure (100) buried in races 4–10 back — 17 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won Here Before, Pace Collapse Victim, Hidden Figure, Off-Track Preference, Class Drop, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Ins1st;ins-3p2nd;4p1/4. (3) 0 wins from post 1 in 3 recent starts. (4) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins.

Mod1(W): 44 (4/5) Mod2(W): 44 (4/5) Mod3(W): 27 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 54 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 55 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 50 (4/5) Win Prob: 40.5% Value Score: 3.11 ★ ML: 5.00 (4/1) Overlay %: 3.00 Fair Odds: 5.25 (4/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($45,000 → $30,000). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (59%). (4) Fourth race back from a 83-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Class Drop, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (3) Trip note from last race: Chased 4-3w; wknd late.

Mod1(W): 83 (3/5) Mod2(W): 87 (2/5) Mod3(W): 69 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 96 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 87 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 57 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 97 (2/5) Win Prob: 73.1% Value Score: 2.81 ★ ML: 2.00 (1/1) Overlay %: -6.15 Fair Odds: 4.03 (3/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	F	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	F	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (68%). (2) Equipment change today (code: 1). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 87 vs field 80). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Fourth race back from a 69-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Equipment Change, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (3) Trip note from last race: 3-2path turn;4p3/16. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 22 days since last race.

Mod1(W): 95 (2/5) Mod2(W): 71 (3/5) Mod3(W): 71 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 8 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 88 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 42 (4/5) Mod4(Form): 73 (3/5) Win Prob: 54.2% Value Score: 3.12 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: 1.05 Fair Odds: 4.44 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	C	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	D	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	F	C
Route FPS	D	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	D	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (2) Big last-race effort (87) — 9 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). (4) Track specialist — 2 wins from 8 starts here (25%). (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Stable on Fire, Won at This Distance, Track Specialist.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Ins turn;steady urging.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 80.9% Value Score: 2.9 ★ ML: 1.80 (4/5) Overlay %: -7.14 Fair Odds: 3.82 (3/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	C	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($45,000 → $30,000). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) Fourth race back from a 59-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Outstanding wet-track record: 3W from 6 starts (50%) — thrives when the going is off. (7) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Career-best figure (93) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won Here Before, Off-Track Ace, Hidden Figure, Class Drop, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: 3-2w in aim; tired. (3) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.4 pts: [63, 80, 85, 92, 71]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 35 (5/5) Mod2(W): 26 (5/5) Mod3(W): 42 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 95 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 32 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 34 (5/5) Mod4(Form): 13 (5/5) Win Prob: 45.7% Value Score: 5.27 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 5.75 Fair Odds: 5.93 (5/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 58-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). (4) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 83 vs field 70). (6) Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Averages 71.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 64.6 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 58 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Ins turn; no threat. (3) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (4) 0 wins from post 1 in 4 recent starts. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.3 pts: [62, 72, 80, 82, 80]) — unpredictable performer. (6) First start at AQU — never raced here before (last seen at: GP).

Mod1(W): 12 (4/6) Mod2(W): 12 (4/6) Mod3(W): 21 (5/6) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 12 (4/6) Mod3-LS: 18 (6/6) Mod4(Form): 39 (4/6) Win Prob: 43.6% Value Score: 3.9 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: 2.29 Fair Odds: 6.41 (5/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	A	D
Dirt Speed	F	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 37-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (21.77%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 83 vs field 70). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 77). (6) Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Returning from 37-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (8) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won Here Before, Sharp Return Workout, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 37 days. (2) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $30,000). (3) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (4) Trip note from last race: 2p turn;drifted out1/8. (5) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (6) 0 wins from post 2 in 4 recent starts. (7) Rising in class ($20,000 → $30,000) after finishing 5 last out — double negative.

Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 2 (6/6) Mod3(W): 22 (4/6) Mod1-LS: 74 (4/6) Mod2-LS: 4 (6/6) Mod3-LS: 28 (3/6) Mod4(Form): 20 (5/6) Win Prob: 27.8% Value Score: 3.19 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 3.69 Fair Odds: 7.06 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Only early-speed horse in the race - uncontested lead possible. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (35%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (4) Strong speed 2 back (83), modest dip last out (74) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Last race E1 pace (89.0) was 6.2 pts above personal avg (82.8) and horse still finished 4th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Lone Speed Advantage, Troubled Trip Comeback, Pace Collapse Victim, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: 6-7w upper; improved.

Mod1(W): 37 (2/6) Mod2(W): 25 (2/6) Mod3(W): 37 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 4 (6/6) Mod2-LS: 20 (3/6) Mod3-LS: 28 (4/6) Mod4(Form): 50 (3/6) Win Prob: 46% Value Score: 3.52 ★ ML: 5.00 (4/1) Overlay %: 2.83 Fair Odds: 5.29 (9/2) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 71-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (82) well above field median (70). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (48%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (5) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 84 vs field 77). (7) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (8) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 83). (9) Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 71 days. (2) Trip note from last race: 2p-ins;bmp7/16;stay on.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 78.8% Value Score: 2.41 ★ ML: 1.40 (2/5) Overlay %: -11.25 Fair Odds: 3.67 (5/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (3) Fourth race back from a 267-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 87 vs field 83). (5) Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Returning from 30-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (7) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Career-best figure (85) buried in races 4–10 back — 15 pts above race median and 10 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won Here Before, Sharp Return Workout, Hidden Figure, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($17,500 → $30,000). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Trip note from last race: 7w upper; weakened. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (4 of last 5 starts). (5) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (6) Rising in class ($17,500 → $30,000) after finishing 7 last out — double negative. (7) Stepping up to $30,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $17,500). (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.1 pts: [66, 70, 75, 55, 85]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 2 (6/6) Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 90 (2/6) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 84 (2/6) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 34.5% Value Score: 5.72 ★ ML: 12.00 (10/1) Overlay %: 5.31 Fair Odds: 7.82 (7/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	B
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	F	C
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	B
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($50,000 → $30,000). (2) Speed average (76) well above field median (70). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (31%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 77 vs field 70). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 82 vs field 77). (7) Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. (8) Career-best figure (85) buried in races 4–10 back — 15 pts above race median and 11 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Cutting back to sprint (1540 yds) from routes — sprint speed figures (42.1) are 8.4 pts better than route figures (33.7). (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Off-Track Ace, Hidden Figure, Distance Cutback, Class Drop, Late Kick Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Chased 5-4w; trailed. (4) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (5) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 17 days since last race. (7) 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 7 (5/6) Mod2(W): 12 (5/6) Mod3(W): 8 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 81 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 6 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 22 (5/6) Mod4(Form): 18 (6/6) Win Prob: 36.3% Value Score: 4.17 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 2.43 Fair Odds: 7.97 (7/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	F
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Only early-speed horse in the race - uncontested lead possible. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (25%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (57%). (4) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 84). (6) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (7) Career-best figure (81) buried in races 4–10 back — 24 pts above race median and 28 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Cutting back to sprint (1430 yds) from routes — sprint speed figures (43.7) are 19.0 pts better than route figures (24.7). (9) Averages 59.8 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 43.0 in other configs (6 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Lone Speed Advantage, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure, Distance Cutback, Return to Proven Setup, Early Speed Edge, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Headed out1/2;2p;stopd. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 15.1 pts: [31, 17, 53, 52, 37]) — unpredictable performer. (6) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 34 (6/6) Mod2(W): 31 (6/6) Mod3(W): 44 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 52 (5/6) Mod2-LS: 31 (6/6) Mod3-LS: 25 (6/6) Mod4(Form): 19 (6/6) Win Prob: 19.3% Value Score: 5.19 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 7.85 Fair Odds: 7.64 (7/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	D	F
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 38-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($25,000 → $12,500). (3) Speed average (65) well above field median (58). (4) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (31%). (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (21.77%). (6) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 84 vs field 61). (7) Fourth race back from a 263-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (8) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $25,000) after a 38-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Class Drop After Rest, Class Drop, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 38 days. (2) Finish positions worsening over last 4 starts. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 8 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Chased 5-4w; weakened. (6) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 93 (2/6) Mod2(W): 89 (2/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 90 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod4(Form): 95 (3/6) Win Prob: 62.2% Value Score: 2.78 ★ ML: 2.50 (3/2) Overlay %: -4.20 Fair Odds: 4.51 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	A	D
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	F
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	B	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	F
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (72) well above field median (58). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (18.46%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 86 vs field 61). (4) Career-best figure (82) buried in races 4–10 back — 24 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hidden Figure.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 5path turn; no threat. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 22 days since last race.

Mod1(W): 78 (4/6) Mod2(W): 82 (4/6) Mod3(W): 87 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 25 (6/6) Mod2-LS: 84 (4/6) Mod3-LS: 70 (4/6) Mod4(Form): 75 (4/6) Win Prob: 48.7% Value Score: 3.42 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 1.61 Fair Odds: 5.31 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	B	F
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	F
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	F
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 71 vs fast: 61). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (35%). (3) Big last-race effort (71) — 11 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 84). (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Off-Track Preference, Early Speed Edge.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (4 of 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Paused7/16;svd grnd. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (4 of last 5 starts). (5) Last race was career-best speed (71) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 90 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 91 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (2/6) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 75.4% Value Score: 2.89 ★ ML: 2.00 (1/1) Overlay %: -8.18 Fair Odds: 4.58 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	C	D
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 79-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (3) Speed average (65) well above field median (58). (4) Career-best speed figure (64) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) Equipment change today (code: 2). (6) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (39%). (7) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (8) Strong speed 2 back (68), modest dip last out (60) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (9) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $20,000) after a 79-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop After Rest, Form Reversal, Class Drop, Equipment Change, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 79 days. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Trip note from last race: Off step slow;3p-ins. (5) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (6) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($50,000 → $25,000 → $20,000).

Mod1(W): 67 (5/6) Mod2(W): 61 (5/6) Mod3(W): 63 (5/6) Mod1-LS: 85 (4/6) Mod2-LS: 59 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 58 (5/6) Mod4(Form): 47 (5/6) Win Prob: 27.3% Value Score: 3.14 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 4.41 Fair Odds: 6.63 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	F	F
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	F	F
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (58%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 12 starts (25%). (3) Big last-race effort (77) — 17 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Trainer 'COX BRAD H' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Stable on Fire, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Chased 2-3w; mild kick. (3) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 18.4 pts: [77, 33, 78, 69, 67]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 77.2% Value Score: 2.6 ★ ML: 1.60 (3/5) Overlay %: -11.65 Fair Odds: 4.54 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (35%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 85). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Averages 68.9 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 61.7 in other configs (7 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Won Here Before, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Chased 4-5w; tired. (3) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.4 pts: [56, 76, 67, 79, 76]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 77 (3/6) Mod2(W): 81 (3/6) Mod3(W): 80 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 90 (2/6) Mod2-LS: 79 (3/6) Mod3-LS: 99 (2/6) Mod4(Form): 90 (2/6) Win Prob: 69.2% Value Score: 3.13 ★ ML: 2.50 (3/2) Overlay %: -5.60 Fair Odds: 5.07 (4/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	B	D
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (4) Trainer 'KANTARMACI ILKAY' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (5) Career-best figure (80) buried in races 4–10 back — 15 pts above race median and 11 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Averages 69.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 55.7 in other configs (7 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure, Return to Proven Setup, Class Drop, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (7 of 7 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: In hand 2p; ran on.

Mod1(W): 82 (2/6) Mod2(W): 81 (2/6) Mod3(W): 90 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 12 (5/6) Mod2-LS: 80 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 48 (5/6) Mod4(Form): 72 (3/6) Win Prob: 61.2% Value Score: 3.96 ★ ML: 4.00 (3/1) Overlay %: 0.29 Fair Odds: 5.35 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (33%). (4) Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. (5) Trainer 'KANTARMACI ILKAY' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Career-best figure (84) buried in races 4–10 back — 19 pts above race median and 19 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Off-Track Ace, Hidden Figure, Class Drop, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 5-6w upper; wknd late. (5) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (6) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 54 (5/6) Mod2(W): 67 (4/6) Mod3(W): 79 (4/6) Mod1-LS: 5 (6/6) Mod2-LS: 71 (4/6) Mod3-LS: 65 (4/6) Mod4(Form): 50 (4/6) Win Prob: 44.7% Value Score: 4.06 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: 4.08 Fair Odds: 5.62 (9/2) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	D
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 85). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Strong speed 2 back (66), modest dip last out (61) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Class Drop, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Brush gate; pass tired. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (5) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 29 days since last race.

Mod1(W): 55 (4/6) Mod2(W): 49 (5/6) Mod3(W): 42 (5/6) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 49 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 23 (6/6) Mod4(Form): 50 (5/6) Win Prob: 44% Value Score: 3.99 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: 1.79 Fair Odds: 6.79 (6/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	D	C
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 71 vs field 66). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Fourth race back from a 67-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Off-Track Ace, Class Drop, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

Mod1(W): 37 (6/6) Mod2(W): 36 (6/6) Mod3(W): 28 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 63 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 35 (6/6) Mod3-LS: 67 (3/6) Mod4(Form): 24 (6/6) Win Prob: 24.9% Value Score: 3.54 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 4.97 Fair Odds: 7.34 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	F	D
Route FPS	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (31%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (3) Fourth race back from a 196-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 85 vs field 80). (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Last race E1 pace (92.0) was 7.1 pts above personal avg (84.9) and horse still finished 4th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Averages 77.8 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 61.3 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Pace Collapse Victim, Return to Proven Setup, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Pace;2path turn;tired. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 23 days since last race.

Mod1(W): 47 (4/7) Mod2(W): 42 (4/7) Mod3(W): 65 (4/7) Mod1-LS: 4 (6/7) Mod2-LS: 47 (5/7) Mod3-LS: 24 (7/7) Mod4(Form): 46 (4/7) Win Prob: 39.8% Value Score: 3.55 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: 2.89 Fair Odds: 6.09 (5/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 82 vs fast: 71). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (25%). (3) Big last-race effort (82) — 23 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (18.46%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 90 vs field 80). (6) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Speed improved +24 pts then +11 pts in last 2 starts (47 → 71 → 82) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Off-Track Preference, Early Speed Edge.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($16,000 → $35,000). (2) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Speed average (57) well below field median (71). (5) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (6) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (7) Trip note from last race: Ins turn;steady urging. (8) Last race was career-best speed (82) — bounce risk after peak effort. (9) Stepping up to $35,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $30,000). (10) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.5 pts: [82, 71, 47, 60, 57]) — unpredictable performer. (11) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (47 → 71 → 82) and last race speed is well above career average (57) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.

Mod1(W): 9 (7/7) Mod2(W): 8 (7/7) Mod3(W): 5 (7/7) Mod1-LS: 79 (3/7) Mod2-LS: 20 (7/7) Mod3-LS: 51 (5/7) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 43.3% Value Score: 8.83 ★ ML: 15.00 (15/1) Overlay %: 3.41 Fair Odds: 11.03 (10/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	F
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	F	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	F	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (77) well above field median (71). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (33%). (3) Big last-race effort (84) — 9 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 80 vs field 76). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Big Last Effort, Closer in Pace Duel, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 51 days. (2) Rising in class today ($12,500 → $35,000). (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (5) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (6) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). (7) Trip note from last race: 4p turn;drifted out1/8. (8) Last race was career-best speed (84) — bounce risk after peak effort. (9) Stepping up to $35,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $30,000).

Mod1(W): 78 (2/7) Mod2(W): 64 (2/7) Mod3(W): 80 (2/7) Mod1-LS: 11 (5/7) Mod2-LS: 73 (2/7) Mod3-LS: 78 (3/7) Mod4(Form): 70 (2/7) Win Prob: 58.3% Value Score: 3.71 ★ ML: 4.00 (3/1) Overlay %: -1.78 Fair Odds: 6.18 (5/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	D	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 39-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 5 wins from 13 starts (38%). (4) Big last-race effort (85) — 11 pts above recent average. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (6) Fourth race back from a 77-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Averages 76.5 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 64.0 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Stable on Fire, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 39 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Chased 2-3w; wknd late. (4) Last race was career-best speed (85) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.4 pts: [85, 80, 85, 56, 70]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/7) Mod2(W): 100 (1/7) Mod3(W): 100 (1/7) Mod1-LS: 92 (2/7) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/7) Win Prob: 66% Value Score: 2.36 ★ ML: 1.80 (4/5) Overlay %: -10.90 Fair Odds: 4.84 (4/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (37%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $35,000). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Chased 3-4w; mild kick. (4) Rising in class ($20,000 → $35,000) after finishing 3 last out — double negative. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.5 pts: [75, 79, 88, 70, 66]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 65 (3/7) Mod2(W): 53 (3/7) Mod3(W): 69 (3/7) Mod1-LS: 4 (7/7) Mod2-LS: 70 (3/7) Mod3-LS: 66 (4/7) Mod4(Form): 56 (3/7) Win Prob: 50.2% Value Score: 3.84 ★ ML: 5.00 (4/1) Overlay %: 0.71 Fair Odds: 6.25 (5/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	D	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (38%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (42%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 75). (4) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $35,000). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 9 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 5w upper; mild bid. (5) Rising in class ($20,000 → $35,000) after finishing 5 last out — double negative. (6) Stepping up to $35,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $30,000).

Mod1(W): 31 (6/7) Mod2(W): 35 (5/7) Mod3(W): 38 (6/7) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 49 (4/7) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 45 (5/7) Win Prob: 41.8% Value Score: 3.73 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: 0.90 Fair Odds: 7.26 (6/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	D	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	A	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (33%). (2) Career-best speed figure (80) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 85 vs field 80). (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Averages 72.8 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 60.8 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Return to Proven Setup, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (66) well below field median (71). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Pressed;ins turn;tired. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 23 days since last race. (6) Post 7 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 22.7 pts: [66, 80, 78, 66, 24]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 32 (5/7) Mod2(W): 34 (6/7) Mod3(W): 50 (5/7) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod2-LS: 44 (6/7) Mod3-LS: 95 (2/7) Mod4(Form): 25 (6/7) Win Prob: 29.6% Value Score: 3.39 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 2.62 Fair Odds: 7.82 (7/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 302-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (41%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 10 starts (30%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Closer in Pace Duel, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 302 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Inside;2p;tired. (5) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.7 pts: [56, 66, 72, 65, 42]) — unpredictable performer. (7) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (8) First start at AQU — never raced here before (last seen at: GP).

Mod1(W): 39 (5/7) Mod2(W): 36 (5/7) Mod3(W): 31 (5/7) Mod1-LS: 59 (5/7) Mod2-LS: 40 (5/7) Mod3-LS: 41 (3/7) Mod4(Form): 44 (4/7) Win Prob: 36.7% Value Score: 4.21 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 3.06 Fair Odds: 7.49 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (73) well above field median (64). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (21%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (39%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 82). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 66). (6) Strong speed 2 back (77), modest dip last out (69) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Troubled Trip Comeback, Form Reversal, Late Kick Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 9 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Outside;3-2p turn;wknd. (6) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 67 (2/7) Mod2(W): 65 (2/7) Mod3(W): 71 (2/7) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 71 (2/7) Mod3-LS: 41 (4/7) Mod4(Form): 67 (2/7) Win Prob: 63% Value Score: 4.42 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.26 Fair Odds: 5.88 (5/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	F	F
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	B	D
Trainer Effectiveness	F	F
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (2) Big last-race effort (64) — 16 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (33%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 87 vs field 82). (5) Speed improved +11 pts then +7 pts in last 2 starts (46 → 57 → 64) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (6) Trainer 'KANTARMACI ILKAY' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Averages 59.2 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 45.5 in other configs (6 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Hot Trainer, Return to Proven Setup, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (54) well below field median (64). (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 9 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 2-3path turn;no rally. (6) Last race was career-best speed (64) — bounce risk after peak effort. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.6 pts: [64, 57, 46, 40, 67]) — unpredictable performer. (8) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (9) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (46 → 57 → 64) and last race speed is well above career average (54) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.

Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 55 (6/7) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 11.8% Value Score: 4.65 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 7.22 Fair Odds: 9.26 (8/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	D	C
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($40,000 → $12,500). (2) Speed average (73) well above field median (64). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). (4) Equipment change today (code: 1). (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (59%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 71 vs field 66). (7) Career-best figure (81) buried in races 4–10 back — 17 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Class Drop, Equipment Change.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 2p btwn foes trn;tired. (5) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.1 pts: [58, 72, 76, 79, 81]) — unpredictable performer. (7) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/7) Mod2(W): 100 (1/7) Mod3(W): 100 (1/7) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/7) Win Prob: 89.9% Value Score: 2.06 ★ ML: 0.80 Overlay %: -26.78 Fair Odds: 4.94 (4/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 68 vs fast: 61). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (34%). (3) Big last-race effort (68) — 15 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Fourth race back from a 71-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Closer in Pace Duel, Off-Track Preference, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (56) well below field median (64). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Checked7/16;ins turn. (5) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (6) Last race was career-best speed (68) — bounce risk after peak effort. (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($40,000 → $35,000 → $16,000). (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 17.4 pts: [68, 61, 70, 27, 57]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 30 (6/7) Mod2(W): 13 (6/7) Mod3(W): 30 (6/7) Mod1-LS: 78 (3/7) Mod2-LS: 20 (6/7) Mod3-LS: 27 (6/7) Mod4(Form): 26 (7/7) Win Prob: 19% Value Score: 3.88 ★ ML: 15.00 (15/1) Overlay %: 5.50 Fair Odds: 8.61 (8/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	D	F
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	D	D
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 63-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (35%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Consistent workout spacing (8, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 91 vs field 88). (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 63 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (5 of 8 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Chased ins; weakened. (6) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (7) Post 7 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.

Mod1(W): 43 (4/7) Mod2(W): 44 (4/7) Mod3(W): 39 (4/7) Mod1-LS: 99 (2/7) Mod2-LS: 47 (4/7) Mod3-LS: 61 (2/7) Mod4(Form): 43 (5/7) Win Prob: 36.3% Value Score: 4.16 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 4.15 Fair Odds: 6.77 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	D
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Speed average (71) well above field median (64). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 71 vs field 66). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Career-best figure (83) buried in races 4–10 back — 19 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Class Drop, Late Kick Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Finish positions worsening over last 4 starts. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Brushed gate; tired. (5) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (6) Post 8 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.1 pts: [58, 73, 75, 83, 70]) — unpredictable performer. (8) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 56 (3/7) Mod2(W): 53 (3/7) Mod3(W): 60 (3/7) Mod1-LS: 3 (7/7) Mod2-LS: 64 (3/7) Mod3-LS: 38 (5/7) Mod4(Form): 55 (3/7) Win Prob: 45.7% Value Score: 4.08 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: 2.20 Fair Odds: 6.45 (5/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod4(Form): Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	D	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

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