Posted inAnalysis Reports

Thistledown Racetrack – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 21, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Thistledown Race Day Overview — September 21, 2026

Thistledown kicks off its Monday card with eight races spread across a full afternoon of dirt action in North Randall, Ohio. Today's program features a solid mix of conditions ranging from maiden special weights to allowance company and a pair of claiming routes, giving bettors a wide variety of wagering opportunities. The card opens at 12:50 PM Eastern with a 1760-furlong allowance sprint on the dirt and closes at 4:20 PM with a fillies and mares claiming route. Several trainers are running multiple horses across the card, and the Radosevich barn in particular fields runners in multiple races that will bear watching for stable patterns.

Notable for today's program is the presence of trainer Johanna Urieta, who saddles horses in three separate races and pairs with a different rider in each, suggesting a strong book of live ammunition. The Zielinski barn also sends out multiple contenders, continuing what has been a productive meet at this level. The Juarez-Mendoza operation fields a runner on the turf side of early sprints as well. Bettors should monitor the scratch sheet closely, particularly in the maiden special weight events in Races 4 and 6, where field sizes are already compact and any scratches could reshape the wagering entirely.

The Pick 5, which figures to begin in Race 4 or 5 depending on the track's sequence structure for this meet, will draw significant interest given the maiden events that anchor the sequence. Exotic players should be ready for multiple tickets targeting the maiden races with wider spreads.

Weather and Track Conditions — September 21, 2026

September in the Cleveland area typically brings mild fall transition weather, and the forecast for today at Thistledown is consistent with that seasonal pattern. Temperatures are expected to reach a high in the low 70s Fahrenheit by mid-afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and northwest winds running between 8 and 14 miles per hour. No precipitation is anticipated during racing hours, though overnight showers earlier in the week may have left residual moisture in the cushion depending on drainage.

The Thistledown main track is a one-mile oval with a tight configuration that plays particularly fast on its inside path when the surface is firm. As of early morning, the track is listed as fast, and given the dry forecast and the track's typically efficient drainage, it should remain firm throughout the afternoon. Horses that have shown the ability to handle a firm, sealed surface will have a natural edge. Mid-morning harrowing and maintenance should help even out any minor inconsistencies in the cushion, and the track superintendent's crew has been diligent throughout this meet in keeping the surface consistent.

Wind direction out of the northwest may create a slight headwind in the stretch run, which historically at tight oval tracks can suppress final fractions slightly and benefit pace setters who steal modest leads rather than blazing fractions. Speed horses should still be respected, but fractions should be honest rather than suicidal, meaning early leaders have a real chance to last.

Track and Post Position Bias Analysis

Thistledown's one-mile oval is among the tighter tracks in the Midwest circuit, and its configuration has historically produced consistent tendencies that sharp bettors exploit. The track's inside rail has been playing favorably this meet, with horses breaking from posts 1 through 4 showing a higher win percentage in sprint races, particularly those going 1210 furlongs where the first turn comes up quickly and early position is at a premium.

In longer routes today, specifically Races 1 and 7 at 1760 and 1320 furlongs respectively, the middle posts from 3 through 6 have shown a slight advantage as horses can settle into good tracking positions without being immediately parked wide or buried on the rail. The far outside posts beyond 7 have been a slight disadvantage in these longer route configurations when pace is honest, as three-wide runs early have cost horses late.

In the maiden routes and sprint maiden events on today's card, first-time starters and lightly raced horses from the inside posts will benefit from simple trips. Trainers who tend to work their horses from the gate in the morning, such as the Hamm and Zielinski barns, often deliver horses that break sharply and maximize favorable post draws. Today's inside posts across the board should be viewed as a mild positive, though not a decisive one on a fast surface with expected honest fractions.

One additional note: in fillies and mares sprint races at this level, which we see in Race 6 and Race 8, rail speed has been particularly potent. Horses breaking from posts 1 and 2 in those events deserve elevated attention.

RACE 1 — Post (12:50)/11:50/10:50/9:50 — 1760f | D | A | Alw 28000n1x | BUN | Purse $28,000

This is a first-level allowance sprint for horses that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter, going an extended 1760 furlongs on the dirt. The condition creates an interesting class challenge, as it pulls together horses coming off maiden victories against horses who may have been running in lower-level claiming company. Deciphering which horses are legitimately moving forward versus simply stepping up in class is the central handicapping task in this opener.

Pace Analysis

With ten horses entered, pace scenarios depend heavily on which horses choose to press the issue early. Controller (POST 6) and Trouble In Motown (POST 8) are the two morning line favorites and likely represent pace-pressing types from their post positions. Daddy Justify (POST 5) may also show early foot given trainer patterns. The distance of 1760 furlongs adds complexity, as horses that get caught up in a hot early pace scenario will be vulnerable in the final stages. A moderate pace favors class, while a contested early battle sets up closers. Phreddie Mac (POST 10) at 2-1 on the morning line appears positioned as a closer or mid-pack stalker from the far outside, which is a slightly unfavorable post in a 1760-furlong sprint at this track.

Key Contenders

Phreddie Mac (POST 10) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 under trainer Kim Puhl and jockey L.A. Gonzalez, who has been among the more active riding presence at this meet. Phreddie Mac's 2-1 price suggests significant confidence from the morning line makers, and the Puhl barn has had a respectable meet at Thistledown. The concern here is the far outside post in a ten-horse field going 1760 furlongs, which could force a wide run or a ground-saving trip that requires traffic luck. If Gonzalez can find a comfortable stalking trip on the first turn, the horse should be dangerous in the final quarter mile.

Controller (POST 6) at 4-1 under trainer Timothy Hamm and jockey Rocco Bowen is one of the more interesting plays on the board. Hamm's Thistledown barn has been active and effective at this condition level, and the 4-1 price on a horse from a legitimate barn in first-level allowance company represents solid value. Bowen has been reliable at this meet and should give Controller a clean trip from the middle of the gate.

Trouble In Motown (POST 8) at 4-1 under trainer Justin Radosevich and jockey Gerardo Corrales is the other co-favorite. The Radosevich name is well-respected at Thistledown, and Trouble In Motown's morning line suggests this horse has form that projects favorably into this condition.

Secondary Choices

K Kid (POST 7) at 6-1 trained by Richard Zielinski and ridden by Chelsey Keiser is a horse to track. Zielinski has been excellent at spotting horses in appropriate conditions, and the 6-1 morning line price suggests K Kid has legitimate competitive form. Keiser has been active and capable at this meet and should give K Kid every opportunity from the 7-hole.

Quarantino (POST 9) at 8-1 trained by Jeffrey Skerrett with son Jefferson Skerrett aboard is the family operation that has quietly been effective at this level. The outside post is a concern at this distance, but the Skerrett barn knows how to prepare a horse for an allowance condition, and 8-1 represents fair value if the horse has hidden form.

Wetzel (POST 1) at 10-1 under trainer Paul G. Overholt and jockey Jose A. Bracho gets a perfect inside draw at a track where the rail has been productive. If Wetzel can show early speed and find the rail, the post position alone makes this a horse worth including in exotic tickets.

Longshots

Knock Wood (POST 2) at 10-1 trained by Kristina M. Tumblin with Erik Barbaran aboard is a deep longshot that could benefit from good early positioning alongside the rail. Swayback Mobil (POST 3) at 12-1 under Rey Juarez-Mendoza and Alexander Chavez is another low-rung entrant whose price suggests limited competitive form at this level. Sweeping Giant (POST 4) at 15-1 trained by James Canegata with R. Feliciano up is an extreme longshot. Daddy Justify (POST 5) at 15-1 under Johanna Urieta and D.L. Parker rounds out the field and is a price play only with long odds indicating limited expected competitiveness.

Betting Strategy

This opener is a race to use selectively in multi-race exotic sequences rather than stand-alone betting. The two co-favorites, Controller (POST 6) and Trouble In Motown (POST 8), represent the best single-race value. Phreddie Mac (POST 10) is a legitimate favorite but the post position in a ten-horse field at this distance is a legitimate concern. For exactas, key Controller (POST 6) over Phreddie Mac (POST 10) and Trouble In Motown (POST 8). Include K Kid (POST 7) as the value inclusion in trifecta thirds.

Selections

Win: Controller (POST 6) Place: Trouble In Motown (POST 8) Show: K Kid (POST 7)

RACE 2 — Post (1:20)/12:20/11:20/10:20 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 5000n2l | BUN | Purse $11,800

This is a claiming sprint at $5,000 for horses that have not won two races lifetime, going 1210 furlongs on the dirt. The purse of $11,800 and claiming price of $5,000 places this firmly at the bottom of the condition ladder, and the field has a raw quality that rewards horses with any meaningful recent form. At this claiming level, trainers are often strategic about which horses they choose to protect and which they allow to be claimed, so class drops and class tests carry extra weight.

Pace Analysis

Eight horses are entered, and with jockeys like Jose A. Bracho on Gunn's Roar (POST 6) and Alexander Chavez on It's Last Call (POST 2) likely pressing early, this sprint has the potential for a contested pace. Have A Cigar (POST 7) at 2-1 and Leo's Legacy (POST 8) at 3-1 are the top two in the morning line and project as either stalkers or early pressers depending on their recent form. A hot early pace at 1210 furlongs on this track could set up the closer, but at $5,000 claiming level, closers are often inconsistent. Speed that gets a clean trip deserves primary consideration.

Key Contenders

Have A Cigar (POST 7) at 2-1 under trainer Ivan Calderon and jockey Mauro Cedillo is the morning line choice and demands primary attention. Calderon has shown competence at the claiming level this meet, and Cedillo is among the stronger riders at this track. From the 7-post in an eight-horse sprint, Have A Cigar should settle comfortably in tracking position and should have enough to run down early speed at this claiming level.

Leo's Legacy (POST 8) at 3-1 under trainer Jeff Radosevich and jockey L.R. Rivera is the second choice and benefits from strong barn support. The Radosevich name here again at the claiming level is meaningful, as this barn has consistently placed horses in spots where they can compete. The outside post is manageable in an eight-horse sprint, and Rivera has been solid at this meet.

Secondary Choices

A Bit Of Captain (POST 1) at 4-1 under Jeffrey Skerrett with Jefferson Skerrett in the irons gets the coveted rail draw. In a bottom-level sprint where trips matter enormously, the inside post can be decisive if the horse shows early speed or good positioning instincts. The Skerrett family connection and rail advantage makes this a legitimate play at 4-1.

Gunn's Roar (POST 6) at 6-1 under Jeff Radosevich and Jose A. Bracho is notable because it is the same trainer as Leo's Legacy (POST 8), meaning Radosevich sends out two horses in this race. When a barn has two entrants, often one is the “live” horse and one is the secondary option. Given the morning line prices, Leo's Legacy (POST 8) appears to be the barn's primary runner, but Gunn's Roar (POST 6) at 6-1 with Bracho is not to be dismissed in exotics.

Longshots

Polizon (POST 5) at 8-1 under Ricardo Bailey and Jason Simpson is a mid-field longshot at a price. It's Last Call (POST 2) at 10-1 under Juarez-Mendoza and Chavez is a speed type that could set honest fractions before fading. Union Swag (POST 3) at 10-1 under Gary L. Johnson and D.L. Parker and Nantucket (POST 4) at 12-1 under Marco Ccamaque and Fernando Salazar Becerra are bottom-of-field selections that need significant help to factor. All four are worth including as deep shots only in trifecta and superfecta structures.

Betting Strategy

Key Have A Cigar (POST 7) on top in exactas and trifectas. Use Leo's Legacy (POST 8) and A Bit Of Captain (POST 1) as secondary plays. In trifecta construction, use all at 8-1 or less underneath. The double with Race 3 linking Leo's Legacy (POST 8) into the top choices in Race 3 is worth small investment.

Selections

Win: Have A Cigar (POST 7) Place: Leo's Legacy (POST 8) Show: A Bit Of Captain (POST 1)

RACE 3 — Post (1:50)/12:50/11:50/10:50 — 1320f | D | A | Alw 35800n1x | BUN | Purse $35,800

The best race of the early portion of the card, this is a first-level allowance sprint going one turn of 1320 furlongs with a purse of $35,800. The condition draws an eight-horse field with two co-favorites on the morning line: Redden (POST 6) at 2-1 and P J's Boy (POST 8) at 2-1. These two are expected to draw the lion's share of the public's money, but the field is deep enough to produce a multi-race exotic payout with the right longshot inclusion.

Pace Analysis

Eight runners entered here, and the pace dynamics are critical. With Ripman (POST 7) at 4-1 under Zielinski and Fernando Salazar Becerra likely to be aggressive from just outside the co-favorites, and El Canelo One (POST 3) at 6-1 under Juarez-Mendoza and Bracho potentially pressing from the early stages, this race could produce honest fractions at 1320 furlongs. Redden (POST 6) and P J's Boy (POST 8) at co-favorite odds suggest both are capable of handling multiple pace scenarios, but if the early fractions are hot, the stalkers and closers could benefit.

Key Contenders

Redden (POST 6) at 2-1 under trainer Robert C. Cline and jockey Victor R. Fernandez is the first choice to dissect. Cline's barn has been solid at Thistledown, and Redden's position at the 6-post allows for a middle trip. Fernandez has good knowledge of this track and should give Redden a professional trip. At 2-1, the question is whether the public has bet this horse properly or if the price is squeezed too tight.

P J's Boy (POST 8) at 2-1 under trainer Jacinto Lopez and jockey Mauro Cedillo is the other co-favorite with an outside post. Cedillo has been among the meet's leading riders, and Lopez is a trainer with track knowledge. The 8-post at 1320 furlongs on this oval is workable but not ideal, and P J'S Boy must break well to avoid a wide first turn run. If this horse is as good as the price suggests, the post issue is minor.

Secondary Choices

Ripman (POST 7) at 4-1 trained by Richard Zielinski with Fernando Salazar Becerra in the saddle is the best value on the board in this race. Zielinski has been excellent at finding spots for his horses, and Ripman's morning line at 4-1 between the two co-favorites suggests this horse has genuine competitive form. Salazar Becerra has been strong at this meet and should give Ripman an aggressive but measured trip. This is the horse to beat both favorites in exotics.

El Canelo One (POST 3) at 6-1 under Juarez-Mendoza and Bracho is a speed type from a favorable post. If El Canelo One gets to the lead and sets moderate fractions, the inside post advantage could be decisive against horses who need to make late runs.

Longshots

Silver Zapper (POST 5) at 8-1 under Loren Huepenbecker and Erik Barbaran is a mid-priced longshot worth including in trifecta bottoms. Boaz (POST 2) at 12-1 under Susan D. Yoder and Jefferson Skerrett has a decent post draw but faces a significant class test. Marquitos M (POST 4) at 12-1 under Huepenbecker and Brandon Tapara is notable as a barn mate of Silver Zapper (POST 5), meaning Huepenbecker is double-entered again. Strike Plate (POST 1) at 15-1 under Joshua Langley and Angel I. Diaz is the longest shot on the board and would need ideal pace setups to factor. All four longshots are strictly trifecta and superfecta plays.

Betting Strategy

The co-favorite structure here is ideal for exacta boxing of Redden (POST 6) and P J's Boy (POST 8) while keying Ripman (POST 7) on top in exactas as the value play. A $2 exacta of Ripman (POST 7) over Redden (POST 6) and Ripman (POST 7) over P J's Boy (POST 8) should return meaningful value at 4-1 on top. Trifectas with Ripman (POST 7) on top using Redden (POST 6) and P J's Boy (POST 8) in second and third with El Canelo One (POST 3) and Silver Zapper (POST 5) filling the bottom is the suggested structure.

Selections

Win: Ripman (POST 7) Place: Redden (POST 6) Show: P J's Boy (POST 8)

RACE 4 — Post (2:20)/1:20/12:20/11:20 — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | AON | Purse $33,900

The first maiden special weight event of the afternoon, this is a six-horse field going 1210 furlongs on the dirt. The condition is for all ages or sexes on the maiden side, and the $33,900 purse represents a meaningful step up from claiming maiden races. Six horses make for a compact, manageable field, and with two co-favorites at 2-1, the betting structure will likely be straightforward. This is, however, a maiden race, meaning form can be deceptive and training patterns deserve elevated weight.

Pace Analysis

Six horses make for a smaller field, and pace analysis simplifies accordingly. All Nine Yards (POST 2) at 2-1 and Distinct Ruler (POST 5) at 2-1 are the two morning line co-favorites and will set the competitive narrative. Gottabegavin (POST 4) at 4-1 may try to establish early position and test the pace. The six-horse compact field at 1210 furlongs means the pace should develop naturally without excessive crowding, and horses that break alertly will have the best chance of securing clean trips.

Key Contenders

All Nine Yards (POST 2) at 2-1 under trainer Richard Zielinski and jockey Jose A. Bracho is the first co-favorite to analyze. The Zielinski barn has been one of the meet's more successful operations, and Bracho is a capable rider who knows this track well. Post 2 is a favorable draw in a six-horse sprint, and if this horse has the talent the barn believes, the inside-out trip Bracho is likely to engineer should be effective.

Distinct Ruler (POST 5) at 2-1 under trainer James R. Jackson and jockey L.R. Rivera is the other co-favorite. Jackson is a trainer with solid regional credentials, and Rivera has been a consistent performer at this meet. Post 5 in a six-horse field is workable, and if Distinct Ruler has demonstrated quality in the morning or has a race over this track, the 2-1 price is fair.

Secondary Choices

Gottabegavin (POST 4) at 4-1 under trainer Craig Sweeting and jockey German Terraza is the value play in this short field. Sweeting's horses have shown up ready when fit, and the 4-1 morning line on a six-horse maiden field represents legitimate value if the horse is ready to fire on debut or second start. Terraza is a capable jockey who has found success at this level.

The Ace Project (POST 1) at 5-1 under Timothy Hamm and Rocco Bowen gets the coveted rail draw in a six-horse maiden sprint. Hamm is one of the sharper trainers on this card, and Bowen's ability to conserve ground on the rail in a short field could be decisive. At 5-1 with an ideal post, this horse is the best value on the board.

Longshots

Idol Gold (POST 3) at 8-1 under Robert M. Gorham and Fernando Salazar Becerra is the third-longest shot and a horse that needs the two favorites to underperform to factor. Flashy Idol (POST 6) at 12-1 under Nestor R. Rivera and David J. Haldar is the longest shot and is likely outmatched against the favorites on current information, though in a six-horse maiden race any horse is a potential factor if pace scenarios develop favorably.

Betting Strategy

With two co-favorites in a six-horse maiden race, the natural bet is exacta boxing of All Nine Yards (POST 2), Distinct Ruler (POST 5), and The Ace Project (POST 1) for the best value structure. The trifecta with those three in all combinations is manageable and potentially lucrative if The Ace Project (POST 1) at 5-1 runs into the exacta. Single The Ace Project (POST 1) for show as a value proposition.

Selections

Win: All Nine Yards (POST 2) Place: The Ace Project (POST 1) Show: Gottabegavin (POST 4)

RACE 5 — Post (2:50)/1:50/12:50/11:50 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 5000n2y | BUN | Purse $12,600

A $5,000 claiming sprint limited to horses that have not won two races in the current year, going 1210 furlongs on the dirt. This is a bottom-of-the-barrel condition with a modest purse of $12,600 and seven horses. The “n2y” condition limits the condition to this calendar year's win record, which can produce interesting crossovers of horses bouncing between maiden claiming and lower-level claiming company. At this level, recent works, fitness, and jockey quality often outweigh class analysis.

Pace Analysis

Seven horses entered, and with Printrack (POST 4) at 2-1 and Toddchero (POST 5) at 2-1 as co-favorites, both figures to be forwardly placed. If both early favorites press hard from the 4 and 5 posts, they could set up the race for a stalker from the outside. Thanks Frank (POST 6) at 4-1 and All My Life (POST 3) at 4-1 are stalker types who could benefit from a contested early duel. The pace in this class of race at Thistledown can often be ragged, with horses struggling to maintain consistent fractions, which benefits horses with natural ability over those relying on pace scenarios.

Key Contenders

Printrack (POST 4) at 2-1 under trainer Marco Ccamaque and jockey D.L. Parker is the first co-favorite. Ccamaque has had an active presence at this meet, and Parker is a competent rider from a good draw. At 2-1 in a $5,000 claimer, Printrack (POST 4) is the public's choice, and the 4-post in a seven-horse sprint is near-ideal for positioning.

Toddchero (POST 5) at 2-1 under trainer Benny R. Feliciano and jockey R. Feliciano, a family barn entry, is the co-favorite. Family operations where the trainer also provides the jockey can be effective at the lower claiming levels, as the communication is direct and the horse's daily form is well understood by the rider. Toddchero (POST 5) from the 5-post is well positioned.

Secondary Choices

All My Life (POST 3) at 4-1 under trainer Caryn Vecchio and jockey Mauro Cedillo is worth elevated attention. Cedillo has been one of the meeting's most successful riders, and a 4-1 price on a horse he's chosen to ride in a $5,000 claimer suggests he believes in this animal's ability to compete. Post 3 is ideal for a stalker.

Thanks Frank (POST 6) at 4-1 under trainer Norman Rose and jockey Jerome J. Innis is a price play at the same odds as All My Life (POST 3). Rose is a journeyman trainer who knows his horses well, and Innis is an experienced rider who can manage a pace-stalking trip from post 6.

Longshots

Little Vaquero (POST 2) at 8-1 under Donaciano Gonzalez and David J. Haldar is a mid-priced longshot. Jenny's Beignet (POST 7) at 12-1 under Juarez-Mendoza and Jefferson Skerrett is the longest shot in the field and is a deep trifecta inclusion at best. Star Weaver (POST 1) at 15-1 under Amy Sondej and Alexander Chavez is the extreme longshot and is strictly a lottery ticket in superfectas.

Betting Strategy

Box the four horses at 4-1 or better in exactas: All My Life (POST 3), Printrack (POST 4), Toddchero (POST 5), and Thanks Frank (POST 6). The two co-favorites will attract heavy public money, so keying the 4-1 shots over the co-favorites in exactas generates value. Trifectas using Toddchero (POST 5) and Printrack (POST 4) on top with All My Life (POST 3) and Thanks Frank (POST 6) underneath is the preferred structure.

Selections

Win: Toddchero (POST 5) Place: All My Life (POST 3) Show: Printrack (POST 4)

RACE 6 — Post (3:20)/2:20/1:20/12:20 — 1210f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUN | Purse $33,900

The second maiden special weight event on the card, this six-horse field is restricted to fillies and mares going 1210 furlongs on the dirt. The co-favorites on the morning line are Derby Day Ice (POST 1) at 2-1 and Killa Creed (POST 2) at 2-1, which creates an interesting dynamic with both favorites breaking from the inside posts. Post position advantage here is significant, and the bettors' challenge is identifying whether either favorite is beatable at the standard 2-1 price.

Pace Analysis

A six-horse field for fillies in maiden sprint company can produce erratic pace scenarios, particularly if the two rail favorites both show early foot. If Derby Day Ice (POST 1) and Killa Creed (POST 2) both press to the front, they set up a potential pace battle that benefits closers Happycastle (POST 5) and Doin Mischief (POST 3). If one of them settles off the pace, the leader figures to get a soft lead and may be very difficult to catch. Happycastle (POST 5) at 4-1 is positioned as the natural pace stalker from outside the two favorites.

Key Contenders

Derby Day Ice (POST 1) at 2-1 under trainer Robert C. Cline and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the rail in a six-horse fillies maiden sprint. Cline is sending out his second runner of the card here, and the morning line confidence at 2-1 from the inside post is significant. Salazar Becerra is one of the meet's better riders and should control the trip from post 1 with expert ease. The combination of rail post, quality trainer, and top rider makes this the most logical favorite of the two.

Killa Creed (POST 2) at 2-1 under trainer David Wolochuk and jockey Chelsey Keiser is immediately outside the rail favorite. Wolochuk sends out Ryka (POST 4) in Race 7, so this is a trainer with multiple live runners today, suggesting the barn is in good form. Keiser has been solid at this meet, and the 2-post next to the rail is essentially as good as the rail for a forward-moving filly.

Secondary Choices

Happycastle (POST 5) at 4-1 under trainer Rodney C. Faulkner and jockey Angel I. Diaz is the value play in this race. If the two inside favorites contest the early pace, Happycastle (POST 5) sits in a perfect stalking position from post 5 and should have a running lane in the stretch. At 4-1 in a short maiden field, the horse represents the best overlay on the board.

Doin Mischief (POST 3) at 5-1 under trainer Israel Flores and jockey Erik Barbaran is the only horse between the two favorites and the stalkers. Post 3 in a tight six-horse maiden race can be tricky, as the horse can get caught in traffic between front-runners and closers. Barbaran is experienced enough to navigate this, and 5-1 is fair value.

Longshots

Crimson Crush (POST 4) at 8-1 under Ivan Calderon and Mauro Cedillo is a mid-price longshot in a race where Cedillo was the winning rider pick in Race 2. Calderon and Cedillo reunite here, and while 8-1 is a long price for a short field, in maiden company anything is possible. Skiptheguilttrip (POST 6) at 15-1 under Johanna Urieta and Rocco Bowen is the longshot of the race and is strictly a superfecta addition. Urieta saddles her third runner of the card, and while the price is steep, the barn has been active all day.

Betting Strategy

Key Derby Day Ice (POST 1) on top in exactas given the rail advantage and top jockey/trainer combination. Use Killa Creed (POST 2) and Happycastle (POST 5) underneath. For best value, play Happycastle (POST 5) to win at 4-1 and use Derby Day Ice (POST 1) underneath, as if the two favorites duel early, Happycastle is the beneficiary. Trifectas: Derby Day Ice (POST 1) on top, Killa Creed (POST 2) and Happycastle (POST 5) in second, all others in third.

Selections

Win: Derby Day Ice (POST 1) Place: Happycastle (POST 5) Show: Killa Creed (POST 2)

RACE 7 — Post (3:50)/2:50/1:50/12:50 — 1320f | D | A | Alw 38400n3l | BUM | Purse $38,400

The feature event of the afternoon, this is a third-level allowance for fillies and mares that have not won three races lifetime, going 1320 furlongs on the dirt with a top purse of $38,400. Six horses are entered, and the field includes two co-favorites at 2-1: Ryka (POST 4) and Ryzen (POST 6). This is the classiest race on the card and draws the sharpest competitors among the fillies and mares division at Thistledown.

Pace Analysis

A six-horse field at 1320 furlongs should produce a manageable pace scenario. Blue Tail Fly (POST 2) at 4-1 and All Pepped Up (POST 1) at 5-1 may show early speed from the inside posts. Electric Eden (POST 5) at 4-1 is likely to be forwardly placed as well, meaning pace could be genuinely contested before the stretch run. Ryka (POST 4) and Ryzen (POST 6) as co-favorites at 2-1 suggest both are quality animals capable of running from any position. The pace setup of this race will be critical: if multiple horses press early, the co-favorites could be set up for a one-two finish as superior class tells late.

Key Contenders

Ryka (POST 4) at 2-1 under trainer David Wolochuk and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra is the first co-favorite. Wolochuk had Killa Creed (POST 2) in Race 6, making this a barn with live runners on both sides of the card. Salazar Becerra has been excellent at this meet, and Ryka (POST 4) from a middle post in a six-horse allowance field should get a clean, comfortable trip. At third-level allowance condition, this filly has demonstrated consistent ability.

Ryzen (POST 6) at 2-1 under trainer Jose Atala and jockey Gerardo Corrales is the outside co-favorite. Atala is a trainer whose horses tend to arrive fit when entered at this condition level, and Corrales has been reliable throughout this meet. The outside post in a six-horse field at 1320 furlongs is manageable, and if Ryzen (POST 6) has superior class, the post is a minor inconvenience rather than a significant disadvantage.

Secondary Choices

Blue Tail Fly (POST 2) at 4-1 under trainer William D. Cowans and jockey Dylan Machado is the most interesting secondary play. Cowans is a trainer who conditions horses patiently, and Blue Tail Fly (POST 2) at 4-1 in the feature race with an inside post against two co-favorites represents the best overlay on the board in Race 7. Machado is a capable rider, and from post 2, Blue Tail Fly should find the ideal stalking position just off the pace.

Electric Eden (POST 5) at 4-1 under trainer Richard Zielinski and jockey Brandon Tapara is the Zielinski barn's third entry on the card. Zielinski continues to be one of the day's most active trainers, and at 4-1 in the feature race, Electric Eden (POST 5) deserves respect. Tapara is an emerging rider who has shown aptitude at this meet.

Longshots

All Pepped Up (POST 1) at 5-1 under Robert M. Gorham and Erik Barbaran gets the rail in the feature. The inside post in a six-horse allowance route can be advantageous if the horse shows any early speed, and Barbaran is a capable front-runner jockey. Midnite Kings Fate (POST 3) at 10-1 under Loren Huepenbecker and David J. Haldar is the longest shot in the field and is a deep exotic inclusion only. Huepenbecker has two horses in this meet's earlier races but faces the toughest competition of the day here.

Betting Strategy

The feature is the most exotic-friendly race of the afternoon. Key Ryka (POST 4) and Ryzen (POST 6) across the top in exactas, but insert Blue Tail Fly (POST 2) and Electric Eden (POST 5) as value exacta winners over the co-favorites. A $1 trifecta box of Ryka (POST 4), Ryzen (POST 6), Blue Tail Fly (POST 2), and Electric Eden (POST 5) costs $24 and covers virtually all legitimate outcomes. This is the ideal race to chase the trifecta rather than straight win betting.

Selections

Win: Ryka (POST 4) Place: Ryzen (POST 6) Show: Blue Tail Fly (POST 2)

RACE 8 — Post (4:20)/3:20/2:20/1:20 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 16000 | BUM | Purse $27,500

The finale is a claiming route for fillies and mares at $16,000, going 1320 furlongs on the dirt with a purse of $27,500. Eight horses are entered, and Midnight Goddess (POST 5) at 2-1 is the lone morning line single favorite. This is a solid claiming race for this level at Thistledown, and the fillies and mares claiming condition often produces a pace that suits early speed given the track's tendency to favor inside runners in this sex-restricted condition.

Pace Analysis

Eight horses in a 1320-furlong claiming route creates a genuine pace question. Val's Twinstar (POST 1) at 3-1 from the rail may show early speed, as could Kiss Valentina (POST 4) at 4-1. If Midnight Goddess (POST 5) is a stalker type, she could sit just off a pace duel between the inside speed and track the tempo through the turn. The eighth race on any card can be affected by fatigue in the riding colony and horses who have been sitting fresh, so trainer patterns around routing fillies and mares deserve extra attention.

Key Contenders

Midnight Goddess (POST 5) at 2-1 under trainer Hugo Andrade and jockey Gerardo Corrales is the clear morning line choice in the closer. Andrade is a trainer who has placed horses effectively at the claiming level this meet, and Corrales completes a three-ride day that also included Trouble In Motown (POST 8) in Race 1 and Ryzen (POST 6) in Race 7. Corrales' familiarity with Midnight Goddess (POST 5) and his activity throughout the card suggest confidence in this mount.

Val's Twinstar (POST 1) at 3-1 under trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt and jockey L.A. Gonzalez gets the rail draw in the closer. As noted throughout this card's analysis, the rail has been productive at Thistledown this meet, and in a fillies and mares claiming route, early position from the inside can be decisive. Shanyfelt is a capable conditioning trainer at this level, and Gonzalez is a strong rider who has been active today.

Secondary Choices

Kiss Valentina (POST 4) at 4-1 under trainer Raquel A. Castro and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra is the value play here. Salazar Becerra finishes the card on Kiss Valentina (POST 4) having already ridden the favorite in Race 6 and Ryka (POST 4) in Race 7. His presence on a 4-1 shot in the finale suggests he believes this filly can run with the favorite. Castro is an active claiming trainer who understands this level.

Driven For Success (POST 3) at 5-1 under trainer Jeff Radosevich and jockey L.R. Rivera is the Radosevich barn's third entry on the card after Race 2. The barn has been consistent today, and Driven For Success (POST 3) at 5-1 from a favorable inside post is a legitimate contender in this field. Rivera has been solid throughout the card.

Longshots

Be Kozy (POST 7) at 8-1 and Kozy Night (POST 8) at 6-1 are both under trainer Johanna Urieta, who saddles her third and fourth runners of the card in the finale. Urieta has been one of the most active trainers today, and this barn entry of two horses creates interesting dynamics. Kozy Night (POST 8) at 6-1 with Rocco Bowen is the better-priced of the two and is worth including in trifecta and exacta bottoms. Be Kozy (POST 7) at 8-1 with D.L. Parker is the deeper of the two. Kerri's Miracle (POST 2) at 12-1 under Ivan Vazquez and Chelsey Keiser and Oh Glorious Day (POST 6) at 12-1 under the same trainer Vazquez with David J. Haldar are the two longest shots in the finale. Vazquez also runs two horses here, and at 12-1 each, both are long-shot exotics only.

Betting Strategy

Key Midnight Goddess (POST 5) and Val's Twinstar (POST 1) in exactas. Insert Kiss Valentina (POST 4) as the value play on top in upset exactas. Trifectas using Midnight Goddess (POST 5) on top with Val's Twinstar (POST 1) and Kiss Valentina (POST 4) in second and Driven For Success (POST 3) and Kozy Night (POST 8) in third covers the most likely outcomes. Do not overlook the double from Race 7 into Race 8 linking Ryka (POST 4) with Midnight Goddess (POST 5) as a logical short-priced double.

Selections

Win: Midnight Goddess (POST 5) Place: Val's Twinstar (POST 1) Show: Kiss Valentina (POST 4)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Fernando Salazar Becerra is the jockey most worth following today. He draws mounts in six of the eight races and has demonstrated excellent form at this meet. Key rides include Derby Day Ice (POST 1) in Race 6 at 2-1, Ryka (POST 4) in Race 7 at 2-1, and Kiss Valentina (POST 4) in Race 8 at 4-1. His presence on morning-line favorites and near-favorites throughout the card is the strongest single-rider signal of the day.

Mauro Cedillo is another rider in excellent form. His rides include Have A Cigar (POST 7) in Race 2 and P J's Boy (POST 8) in Race 3, both of which are morning line favorites or near-favorites. Cedillo's selection as the go-to rider for multiple favorites suggests trainers trust him in pressure situations.

Rocco Bowen rides for Timothy Hamm throughout the card, notably The Ace Project (POST 1) in Race 4 and Controller (POST 6) in Race 1. The Bowen-Hamm combination has been productive at this meet, and both horses are worth monitoring as potential overlays given trainer and jockey alignment.

Jose A. Bracho has multiple mounts today and is particularly notable on All Nine Yards (POST 2) in Race 4 and El Canelo One (POST 3) in Race 3. Bracho is an experienced rider who knows this track well.

Gerardo Corrales has a busy card with notable mounts in Race 1 on Trouble In Motown (POST 8), Race 7 on Ryzen (POST 6), and the finale on Midnight Goddess (POST 5). A jockey who rides heavily on a card often has strong communication with the relevant trainers, and Corrales' presence on co-favorites in Race 7 and the favorite in Race 8 is the clearest signal of his confidence level today.

Chelsey Keiser rounds out the key riders with mounts in Race 1 on K Kid (POST 7), Race 6 on Killa Creed (POST 2), and Race 8 on Kerri's Miracle (POST 2). Her versatility and consistent effort across the card make her a rider to follow in exotic combinations.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jeff Radosevich (also listed as Justin Radosevich) appears across multiple races today, with entries in Race 1 through Trouble In Motown (POST 8), Race 2 through Gunn's Roar (POST 6) and Leo's Legacy (POST 8), and Race 8 through Driven For Success (POST 3). When a trainer has this many live runners across a single card at a small track, it typically indicates the barn is well-stocked and horses are arriving fit. Leo's Legacy (POST 8) in Race 2 at 3-1 and Driven For Success (POST 3) in Race 8 at 5-1 are the two best Radosevich value plays today.

Richard Zielinski is the most active single trainer on the card by horse count, with entries in Races 1, 3, 4, and 7. K Kid (POST 7) in Race 1, Ripman (POST 7) in Race 3, All Nine Yards (POST 2) in Race 4, and Electric Eden (POST 5) in Race 7 represent a deep book. The Zielinski barn has been among the meet's leading operations, and their horses consistently arrive ready to run.

Johanna Urieta saddles four horses today: Daddy Justify (POST 5) in Race 1, Skiptheguilttrip (POST 6) in Race 6, and the two KOZY horses in Race 8, Be Kozy (POST 7) and Kozy Night (POST 8). The double entry in Race 8 is noteworthy. When a trainer has two horses in the same race, one is often the “live” horse and the other a secondary runner. Given that Kozy Night (POST 8) has Rocco Bowen in the saddle and a better morning line at 6-1 versus 8-1 for Be Kozy (POST 7), Kozy Night (POST 8) appears to be the barn's primary runner in the finale.

Loren Huepenbecker sends out Marquitos M (POST 4) and Silver Zapper (POST 5) in Race 3, a double entry that makes the barn strategy interesting. Given that Silver Zapper (POST 5) has the more favorable post and is priced at 8-1 versus 12-1, the barn likely views Silver Zapper (POST 5) as the primary option with Marquitos M (POST 4) as the secondary or pace helper.

Robert C. Cline has live runners in Race 3 through Redden (POST 6) at 2-1 and in Race 6 through Derby Day Ice (POST 1) at 2-1. A trainer with two morning line co-favorites on the same card at a regional track is a clear signal that the barn is firing on all cylinders. Both horses deserve respect, and Cline's two-race presence as a heavy single favorite or co-favorite suggests one of the stronger single-trainer performance days of this meet.

Ivan Vazquez enters both Kerri's Miracle (POST 2) and Oh Glorious Day (POST 6) in Race 8 at 12-1 each. The trainer sends two at 12-1, suggesting this barn may be looking for workout time rather than a win, and neither should be prioritized above the legitimate contenders.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The most actionable single plays of the day center on three horses whose morning line prices represent genuine value relative to their competitive profiles. Controller (POST 6) in Race 1 at 4-1 with the Hamm-Bowen connection is the best flat-bet win play on the card. The Ace Project (POST 1) in Race 4 at 5-1 with the rail draw in a compact six-horse maiden field is the best value in a maiden race. Happycastle (POST 5) at 4-1 in Race 6 is the best situational value play if the two inside co-favorites contest the pace.

For the Pick 4 spanning Races 5 through 8, the suggested structure uses singles and doubles strategically. Single Toddchero (POST 5) in Race 5, double Derby Day Ice (POST 1) and Killa Creed (POST 2) in Race 6, double Ryka (POST 4) and Ryzen (POST 6) in Race 7, and single Midnight Goddess (POST 5) in Race 8. This structure costs $8 at the $1 base and covers the most likely outcome on each leg.

For the daily double connecting Race 7 and Race 8, pair Ryka (POST 4) and Ryzen (POST 6) with Midnight Goddess (POST 5) and Val's Twinstar (POST 1) for a four-combination ticket costing $8 at the $2 minimum. If Ryka (POST 4) and Midnight Goddess (POST 5) win, the payoff should be modest given the short prices, but combining Ryzen (POST 6) or Ryka (POST 4) with Val's Twinstar (POST 1) at 3-1 in the finale should return $15 to $25 on a $2 investment.

The best exotic structure of the card is the Race 3 trifecta. With Ripman (POST 7) on top at 4-1 over Redden (POST 6) and P J's Boy (POST 8), with El Canelo One (POST 3) filling the third leg, a $1 trifecta box of four horses costs $24 and a potential return of $80 to $200 on a strong trifecta payoff is realistic given the 4-1 price on top.

For the Race 8 exacta, keying Midnight Goddess (POST 5) over Val's Twinstar (POST 1), Kiss Valentina (POST 4), and Driven For Success (POST 3) for a $2 exacta investment of $6 total offers the best risk-to-reward ratio in the finale.

The best overall value play of the card remains Ripman (POST 7) in Race 3 to win at 4-1. In a first-level allowance sprint with co-favorites at 2-1 each, a legitimate contender at 4-1 from a leading barn represents a genuine overlay and is the single best flat-bet opportunity of the afternoon at Thistledown on September 21, 2026.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback