Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Assiniboia Downs, September 29, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks

How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 8:55 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1741057%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)741057%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)741057%
Experimental Weight Set 2741057%
Experimental Weight Set 3741057%

Kelly Edge Plays: 1 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

  • Edge Radar: ASD Race 5 — Ship Boss (SCRATCHED)


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Assiniboia Downs — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 96 graded races at Assiniboia Downs, 2026-08-18 to 2026-09-23.

0%12%25%37%49%Our top pick: 39.6% from 96 racesOur top pick39.6%Morning-line favourite: 35.4% from 96 racesMorning-line favourite35.4%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick39.6%96
Morning-line favourite35.4%96
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Clippity Cop (3/5)
Place:1Jaya Rules (4/1)
Show:2Point Maid (12/1)
Other contenders:4Not True (9/2), 3Turn It Loose (20/1)
Rest of field:5Cloudsinmycoffee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 156243
🎯 Longshots: 621354
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $19,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Areunotentertained (5/2)
Place:2Charlie's Prize (3/1)
Show:4Princeoftheprairie (8/5)
Other contenders:1Acquire (7/2), 5Pleasant Time (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 53241
🎯 Longshots: 43215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Guitars N Cadilaxs (2/5)
Place:2Give Her The Oscar (5/1)
Show:1She's A Maneater (6/1)
Other contenders:5Honourable Mention (8/1), 4Fleetwood Max (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 15324
🎯 Longshots: 32514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,600
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Ride At Dawn (4/1)
Place:2American Witt (3/1)
Show:6Bromeo (2/1)
Other contenders:4He's My Uncle (5/2), 5Ralph's Gift (10/1)
Rest of field:3Moonman Rules (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 156234
🎯 Longshots: 562413
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Red Road Runner (3/1)
Place:5Rhodesia (2/1)
Show:1Bossy Holiday (8/5)
Other contenders:2Master Of Disguise (5/1), 4Curly Esa (20/1)
Rest of field:3Ship Boss (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612543
🎯 Longshots: 156432
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Counting On You (2/1)
Place:1Boujee Britches (5/2)
Show:6Apple Fest (3/1)
Other contenders:7Neytiri (5/1), 4Casually Classy (10/1)
Rest of field:5Mini Glazed Donut (20/1), 3Haute Charlotte (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 671453
🎯 Longshots: 2164573
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,300
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Ricks Red Storm (4/5)
Place:3Conspiracytheorist (3/1)
Show:5Weekendindelmar (6/1)
Other contenders:4Aaron's Spirit (8/1), 2Money Muncher (15/1)
Rest of field:1Main Dude (20/1), 7Promise Code (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 356417
🎯 Longshots: 6427315
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
Win:6Clippity Cop (3/5) 63% · fair 3-5
Place:4Not True (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -37%
Show:1Jaya Rules (4/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -59%
Other contenders:3Turn It Loose (20/1) 6% · fair 15-1 overlay +34%, 2Point Maid (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -34%
Rest of field:5Cloudsinmycoffee (20/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -25%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Clippity Cop — 63.3% win probability, morning line 0.6/1Clippity Cop63.3% ◀Not True — 12.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Not True12.3%Jaya Rules — 9.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Jaya Rules9.3%Turn It Loose — 6.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Turn It Loose6.3%Point Maid — 5.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Point Maid5.2%Cloudsinmycoffee — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Cloudsinmycoffee3.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Clippity Cop63.3%0.6/1
Not True12.3%4.5/1
Jaya Rules9.3%4/1
Turn It Loose6.3%20/1
Point Maid5.2%12/1
Cloudsinmycoffee3.6%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherClippity Cop: model 63.3% vs market 53.0% (+10.3 points)Clippity Cop+10.3Not True: model 12.3% vs market 15.4% (-3.1 points)Not True-3.1Jaya Rules: model 9.3% vs market 17.0% (-7.6 points)Jaya Rules-7.6Turn It Loose: model 6.3% vs market 4.0% (+2.2 points)Turn It Loose+2.2Point Maid: model 5.2% vs market 6.5% (-1.3 points)Point Maid-1.3Cloudsinmycoffee: model 3.6% vs market 4.0% (-0.4 points)Cloudsinmycoffee-0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Clippity Cop63.3%53.0%+10.3
Not True12.3%15.4%-3.1
Jaya Rules9.3%17.0%-7.6
Turn It Loose6.3%4.0%+2.2
Point Maid5.2%6.5%-1.3
Cloudsinmycoffee3.6%4.0%-0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 516243
🎯 Longshots: 621354
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $19,500
Win:3Areunotentertained (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:4Princeoftheprairie (8/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -45%
Show:2Charlie's Prize (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:1Acquire (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -35%, 5Pleasant Time (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -35%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Areunotentertained — 30.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Areunotentertained30.4% ◀Princeoftheprairie — 25.7% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Princeoftheprairie25.7%Charlie'S Prize — 23.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Charlie'S Prize23.0%Acquire — 15.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Acquire15.7%Pleasant Time — 5.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Pleasant Time5.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Areunotentertained30.4%2.5/1
Princeoftheprairie25.7%1.6/1
Charlie'S Prize23.0%3/1
Acquire15.7%3.5/1
Pleasant Time5.2%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAreunotentertained: model 30.4% vs market 23.4% (+7.0 points)Areunotentertained+7.0Princeoftheprairie: model 25.7% vs market 31.5% (-5.8 points)Princeoftheprairie-5.8Charlie'S Prize: model 23.0% vs market 20.5% (+2.5 points)Charlie'S Prize+2.5Acquire: model 15.7% vs market 18.2% (-2.5 points)Acquire-2.5Pleasant Time: model 5.2% vs market 6.3% (-1.1 points)Pleasant Time-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Areunotentertained30.4%23.4%+7.0
Princeoftheprairie25.7%31.5%-5.8
Charlie'S Prize23.0%20.5%+2.5
Acquire15.7%18.2%-2.5
Pleasant Time5.2%6.3%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 53421
🎯 Longshots: 43215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Guitars N Cadilaxs (2/5) 52% · fair 5-5 underlay -56%
Place:1She's A Maneater (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:2Give Her The Oscar (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:5Honourable Mention (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 4Fleetwood Max (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Guitars N Cadilaxs — 52.3% win probability, morning line 0.4/1Guitars N Cadilaxs52.3% ◀She'S A Maneater — 16.2% win probability, morning line 6/1She'S A Maneater16.2%Give Her The Oscar — 16.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Give Her The Oscar16.1%Honourable Mention — 8.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Honourable Mention8.8%Fleetwood Max — 6.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Fleetwood Max6.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Guitars N Cadilaxs52.3%0.4/1
She'S A Maneater16.2%6/1
Give Her The Oscar16.1%5/1
Honourable Mention8.8%8/1
Fleetwood Max6.6%12/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGuitars N Cadilaxs: model 52.3% vs market 58.9% (-6.7 points)Guitars N Cadilaxs-6.7She'S A Maneater: model 16.2% vs market 11.8% (+4.4 points)She'S A Maneater+4.4Give Her The Oscar: model 16.1% vs market 13.8% (+2.3 points)Give Her The Oscar+2.3Honourable Mention: model 8.8% vs market 9.2% (-0.4 points)Honourable Mention-0.4Fleetwood Max: model 6.6% vs market 6.3% (+0.3 points)Fleetwood Max+0.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Guitars N Cadilaxs52.3%58.9%-6.7
She'S A Maneater16.2%11.8%+4.4
Give Her The Oscar16.1%13.8%+2.3
Honourable Mention8.8%9.2%-0.4
Fleetwood Max6.6%6.3%+0.3
🌧️ Off-track: 15324
🎯 Longshots: 32514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,600
Win:6Bromeo (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:4He's My Uncle (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:1Ride At Dawn (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:2American Witt (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -41%, 5Ralph's Gift (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1
Rest of field:3Moonman Rules (25/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -57%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bromeo — 29.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Bromeo29.7% ◀He'S My Uncle — 24.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1He'S My Uncle24.7%Ride At Dawn — 19.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Ride At Dawn19.8%American Witt — 16.5% win probability, morning line 3/1American Witt16.5%Ralph'S Gift — 7.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Ralph'S Gift7.7%Moonman Rules — 1.7% win probability, morning line 25/1Moonman Rules1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bromeo29.7%2/1
He'S My Uncle24.7%2.5/1
Ride At Dawn19.8%4/1
American Witt16.5%3/1
Ralph'S Gift7.7%10/1
Moonman Rules1.7%25/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBromeo: model 29.7% vs market 27.8% (+1.9 points)Bromeo+1.9He'S My Uncle: model 24.7% vs market 23.8% (+0.9 points)He'S My Uncle+0.9Ride At Dawn: model 19.8% vs market 16.7% (+3.1 points)Ride At Dawn+3.1American Witt: model 16.5% vs market 20.9% (-4.4 points)American Witt-4.4Ralph'S Gift: model 7.7% vs market 7.6% (+0.1 points)Ralph'S Gift+0.1Moonman Rules: model 1.7% vs market 3.2% (-1.5 points)Moonman Rules-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bromeo29.7%27.8%+1.9
He'S My Uncle24.7%23.8%+0.9
Ride At Dawn19.8%16.7%+3.1
American Witt16.5%20.9%-4.4
Ralph'S Gift7.7%7.6%+0.1
Moonman Rules1.7%3.2%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 156324
🎯 Longshots: 562413
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
Win:5Rhodesia (2/1) 36% · fair 2-1
Place:1Bossy Holiday (8/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Show:6Red Road Runner (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -32%
Other contenders:2Master Of Disguise (5/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -62%, 4Curly Esa (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:3Ship Boss (25/1) 1% · fair 77-1 underlay -67%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Rhodesia — 35.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Rhodesia35.6% ◀Bossy Holiday — 34.4% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Bossy Holiday34.4%Red Road Runner — 18.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Red Road Runner18.6%Master Of Disguise — 7.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Master Of Disguise7.1%Curly Esa — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Curly Esa3.0%Ship Boss — 1.3% win probability, morning line 25/1Ship Boss1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Rhodesia35.6%2/1
Bossy Holiday34.4%1.6/1
Red Road Runner18.6%3/1
Master Of Disguise7.1%5/1
Curly Esa3.0%20/1
Ship Boss1.3%25/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRhodesia: model 35.6% vs market 27.3% (+8.3 points)Rhodesia+8.3Bossy Holiday: model 34.4% vs market 31.5% (+2.9 points)Bossy Holiday+2.9Red Road Runner: model 18.6% vs market 20.5% (-1.9 points)Red Road Runner-1.9Master Of Disguise: model 7.1% vs market 13.7% (-6.5 points)Master Of Disguise-6.5Curly Esa: model 3.0% vs market 3.9% (-0.9 points)Curly Esa-0.9Ship Boss: model 1.3% vs market 3.2% (-1.9 points)Ship Boss-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Rhodesia35.6%27.3%+8.3
Bossy Holiday34.4%31.5%+2.9
Red Road Runner18.6%20.5%-1.9
Master Of Disguise7.1%13.7%-6.5
Curly Esa3.0%3.9%-0.9
Ship Boss1.3%3.2%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 162435
🎯 Longshots: 156432
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
Win:2Counting On You (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:1Boujee Britches (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:6Apple Fest (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27%
Other contenders:7Neytiri (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -26%, 4Casually Classy (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Rest of field:3Haute Charlotte (20/1) 4% · fair 43-2, 5Mini Glazed Donut (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -37%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Counting On You — 28.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Counting On You28.8% ◀Boujee Britches — 24.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Boujee Britches24.1%Apple Fest — 19.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Apple Fest19.6%Neytiri — 12.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Neytiri12.9%Casually Classy — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Casually Classy7.1%Haute Charlotte — 4.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Haute Charlotte4.5%Mini Glazed Donut — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Mini Glazed Donut3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Counting On You28.8%2/1
Boujee Britches24.1%2.5/1
Apple Fest19.6%3/1
Neytiri12.9%5/1
Casually Classy7.1%10/1
Haute Charlotte4.5%20/1
Mini Glazed Donut3.0%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 674351
🎯 Longshots: 2164573
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,300
Win:6Ricks Red Storm (4/5) 46% · fair 1-1 underlay -31%
Place:3Conspiracytheorist (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:5Weekendindelmar (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:4Aaron's Spirit (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 7Promise Code (25/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -28%
Rest of field:2Money Muncher (15/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -57%, 1Main Dude (20/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -60%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ricks Red Storm — 46.3% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Ricks Red Storm46.3% ◀Conspiracytheorist — 23.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Conspiracytheorist23.1%Weekendindelmar — 15.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Weekendindelmar15.4%Aaron'S Spirit — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Aaron'S Spirit7.6%Promise Code — 2.8% win probability, morning line 25/1Promise Code2.8%Money Muncher — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Money Muncher2.8%Main Dude — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Main Dude2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ricks Red Storm46.3%0.8/1
Conspiracytheorist23.1%3/1
Weekendindelmar15.4%6/1
Aaron'S Spirit7.6%8/1
Promise Code2.8%25/1
Money Muncher2.8%15/1
Main Dude2.0%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 356417
🎯 Longshots: 6427315
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
Win:6Clippity Cop (3/5)
Place:4Not True (9/2)
Show:2Point Maid (12/1)
Other contenders:3Turn It Loose (20/1), 1Jaya Rules (4/1)
Rest of field:5Cloudsinmycoffee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 614523
🎯 Longshots: 621354
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $19,500
Win:3Areunotentertained (5/2)
Place:2Charlie's Prize (3/1)
Show:4Princeoftheprairie (8/5)
Other contenders:1Acquire (7/2), 5Pleasant Time (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32415
🎯 Longshots: 43215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Guitars N Cadilaxs (2/5)
Place:1She's A Maneater (6/1)
Show:5Honourable Mention (8/1)
Other contenders:2Give Her The Oscar (5/1), 4Fleetwood Max (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13524
🎯 Longshots: 32514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,600
Win:1Ride At Dawn (4/1)
Place:4He's My Uncle (5/2)
Show:6Bromeo (2/1)
Other contenders:5Ralph's Gift (10/1), 2American Witt (3/1)
Rest of field:3Moonman Rules (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 156243
🎯 Longshots: 562413
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
Win:6Red Road Runner (3/1)
Place:1Bossy Holiday (8/5)
Show:5Rhodesia (2/1)
Other contenders:2Master Of Disguise (5/1), 4Curly Esa (20/1)
Rest of field:3Ship Boss (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612543
🎯 Longshots: 156432
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
Win:2Counting On You (2/1)
Place:1Boujee Britches (5/2)
Show:6Apple Fest (3/1)
Other contenders:7Neytiri (5/1), 4Casually Classy (10/1)
Rest of field:5Mini Glazed Donut (20/1), 3Haute Charlotte (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612745
🎯 Longshots: 2164573
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,300
Win:6Ricks Red Storm (4/5)
Place:5Weekendindelmar (6/1)
Show:3Conspiracytheorist (3/1)
Other contenders:4Aaron's Spirit (8/1), 2Money Muncher (15/1)
Rest of field:7Promise Code (25/1), 1Main Dude (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 635471
🎯 Longshots: 6427315
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #1, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
13Turn It Loose20/1—5.8%+22.6%0.28%$0.28
TOTAL across 1 play:0.3%$0.28
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
Win:6Clippity Cop (3/5)
Place:1Jaya Rules (4/1)
Show:2Point Maid (12/1)
Other contenders:4Not True (9/2), 3Turn It Loose (20/1)
Rest of field:5Cloudsinmycoffee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612453
🎯 Longshots: 621354
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $19,500
Win:3Areunotentertained (5/2)
Place:2Charlie's Prize (3/1)
Show:4Princeoftheprairie (8/5)
Other contenders:1Acquire (7/2), 5Pleasant Time (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32415
🎯 Longshots: 43215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Guitars N Cadilaxs (2/5)
Place:1She's A Maneater (6/1)
Show:5Honourable Mention (8/1)
Other contenders:2Give Her The Oscar (5/1), 4Fleetwood Max (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31524
🎯 Longshots: 32514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,600
Win:2American Witt (3/1)
Place:6Bromeo (2/1)
Show:1Ride At Dawn (4/1)
Other contenders:4He's My Uncle (5/2), 5Ralph's Gift (10/1)
Rest of field:3Moonman Rules (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 126543
🎯 Longshots: 562413
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
Win:6Red Road Runner (3/1)
Place:1Bossy Holiday (8/5)
Show:5Rhodesia (2/1)
Other contenders:2Master Of Disguise (5/1), 4Curly Esa (20/1)
Rest of field:3Ship Boss (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615243
🎯 Longshots: 156432
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
Win:2Counting On You (2/1)
Place:1Boujee Britches (5/2)
Show:6Apple Fest (3/1)
Other contenders:7Neytiri (5/1), 4Casually Classy (10/1)
Rest of field:5Mini Glazed Donut (20/1), 3Haute Charlotte (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162745
🎯 Longshots: 2164573
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,300
Win:6Ricks Red Storm (4/5)
Place:3Conspiracytheorist (3/1)
Show:5Weekendindelmar (6/1)
Other contenders:4Aaron's Spirit (8/1), 2Money Muncher (15/1)
Rest of field:7Promise Code (25/1), 1Main Dude (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 635421
🎯 Longshots: 6427315
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
Win:6Clippity Cop (3/5)
Place:1Jaya Rules (4/1)
Show:2Point Maid (12/1)
Other contenders:3Turn It Loose (20/1), 4Not True (9/2)
Rest of field:5Cloudsinmycoffee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612345
🎯 Longshots: 621354
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $19,500
Win:3Areunotentertained (5/2)
Place:2Charlie's Prize (3/1)
Show:1Acquire (7/2)
Other contenders:4Princeoftheprairie (8/5), 5Pleasant Time (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 32145
🎯 Longshots: 43215
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Guitars N Cadilaxs (2/5)
Place:1She's A Maneater (6/1)
Show:5Honourable Mention (8/1)
Other contenders:2Give Her The Oscar (5/1), 4Fleetwood Max (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13524
🎯 Longshots: 32514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,600
Win:2American Witt (3/1)
Place:1Ride At Dawn (4/1)
Show:4He's My Uncle (5/2)
Other contenders:6Bromeo (2/1), 5Ralph's Gift (10/1)
Rest of field:3Moonman Rules (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 125643
🎯 Longshots: 562413
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
Win:6Red Road Runner (3/1)
Place:1Bossy Holiday (8/5)
Show:5Rhodesia (2/1)
Other contenders:2Master Of Disguise (5/1), 4Curly Esa (20/1)
Rest of field:3Ship Boss (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 615243
🎯 Longshots: 156432
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,200
Win:2Counting On You (2/1)
Place:1Boujee Britches (5/2)
Show:6Apple Fest (3/1)
Other contenders:7Neytiri (5/1), 4Casually Classy (10/1)
Rest of field:3Haute Charlotte (20/1), 5Mini Glazed Donut (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 621743
🎯 Longshots: 2164573
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,300
Win:6Ricks Red Storm (4/5)
Place:3Conspiracytheorist (3/1)
Show:5Weekendindelmar (6/1)
Other contenders:2Money Muncher (15/1), 4Aaron's Spirit (8/1)
Rest of field:7Promise Code (25/1), 1Main Dude (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 635421
🎯 Longshots: 6427315
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #6 (63%) / R2: #3,#4,#2 (79%) / R3: #3,#1 (68%)
$6 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#4,#2 (79%) / R3: #3,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#4,#1 (74%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 40%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #3,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#4,#1 (74%) / R5: #5,#1 (70%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #5,#1 (70%) / R6: #2,#1,#6 (72%) / R7: #6,#3 (69%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 35%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #6 (63%) / R2: #3,#4,#2 (79%) / R3: #3,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#4,#1 (74%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#4,#2 (79%) / R3: #3,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#4,#1 (74%) / R5: #5,#1 (70%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AARON'S SPIRITACQUIREAMERICAN WITTAPPLE FESTAREUNOTENTERTAINED
BOUJEE BRITCHESBROMEOCASUALLY CLASSYCHARLIE'S PRIZECLIPPITY COP
CONSPIRACYTHEORISTCOUNTING ON YOUCURLY ESAFLEETWOOD MAXGIVE HER THE OSCAR
HAUTE CHARLOTTEHE'S MY UNCLEHONOURABLE MENTIONJAYA RULESMAIN DUDE
MINI GLAZED DONUTMONEY MUNCHERMOONMAN RULESNEYTIRINOT TRUE
POINT MAIDPRINCEOFTHEPRAIRIEPROMISE CODERALPH'S GIFTRED ROAD RUNNER
RICKS RED STORMRIDE AT DAWNSHE'S A MANEATERSHIP BOSSTURN IT LOOSE

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback