Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Belmont, October 28, 2026

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
BEL4Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#5 – Counterspy1 scratch(es)
BEL4Model Weight set 2#7 – Treaty Obligation1 scratch(es)
BEL5Model Algo 1#12 – Duty1 scratch(es)
BEL5Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#6 – Orgonite1 scratch(es)
BEL5Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#6 – Orgonite1 scratch(es)
BEL5Model Weight set 2#12 – Duty1 scratch(es)
BEL5Model Weight set 3#12 – Duty1 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 3 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (3,552 graded races), the races where they agreed won 38.2% of the time against 30.2% where they did not.

Today's agreement races — BEL 1, 2, 8.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 165 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-25.

0%11%22%33%44%Our top pick: 35.2% from 165 racesOur top pick35.2%Expert consensus pick: 27.9% from 165 racesExpert consensus pick27.9%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.2%165
Expert consensus pick27.9%165
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Ur Desire (6/5)
Place:5Essence L Vee (3/1)
Show:1Queen Sally (4/1)
Other contenders:2Roseberns Dream (10/1), 6Bodegas (6/1)
Rest of field:3Luckforyou (15/1), 7Icy Legs (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 451627
🎯 Longshots: 4572316
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Nevah Bettah (2/1)
Place:6Jetty Up (3/1)
Show:4Key Factor (4/1)
Other contenders:7Bankingonit (9/2), 1Rapidly Royal (12/1)
Rest of field:5Kaz' Special One (6/1), 2Tiz The Name (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364751
🎯 Longshots: 3647512
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Karsten (3/1)
Place:1Story Of Rory (7/2)
Show:7Sultan Hassan (7/2)
Other contenders:4Daisy Doo (4/1), 5Lolimo (4/1)
Rest of field:2Runcot (12/1), 3Bitter Banker (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 617452
🎯 Longshots: 6715423
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $44,000
Win:4Osbourne (2/1)
Place:5Counterspy (5/2)
Show:7Treaty Obligation (3/1)
Other contenders:2Ancient World (4/1), 3Burninhunkoflove (10/1), 6Without Pretence (15/1)
Rest of field:8Sin Nombre (20/1), 1Graywing (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 457236
🎯 Longshots: 45723681
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Old Time Rocknroll (3/1)
Place:6Orgonite (4/1)
Show:12Duty (6/1)
Other contenders:3Souper Cha Ching (8/1), 1Mortal Lock (5/1), 10Languid (8/1), 9Cost Effective (10/1)
Rest of field:2Fleet N Ready (20/1), 5Conquering Force (20/1), 7Cederberg (12/1), 11Go Dharma (30/1), 8Trapping Hands (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 46121310
🎯 Longshots: 412106391257118
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #12, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:5Dia Por Dia (2/1)
Place:4Vino Frizzante (7/2)
Show:3Pocket Queens (9/2)
Other contenders:2That'sthefactjack (3/1), 7Moonlight Gal (8/1), 1Amy's Light (15/1)
Rest of field:6Caradise (12/1), 8Calling An Audible (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 542376
🎯 Longshots: 54732618
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 7/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Hill Road (9/2)
Place:7Arkhipov (3/1)
Show:4Eff Thirty Five (7/2)
Other contenders:6Market Timing (4/1), 3Il Siciliano (6/1), 5Concord Green (6/1)
Rest of field:8Hardspun Reason (10/1), 2Daunt (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 174635
🎯 Longshots: 76418325
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $56,000
Win:3Copper Caduceus (3/1)
Place:1Amira's Star (4/1)
Show:5Chaumet (9/2)
Other contenders:14Daylight Dreamer (5/1), 10Midnight Blue (6/1), 11Suited Connectors (6/1), 6You Know Better (8/1), 8No Need To Panic (15/1)
Rest of field:12Raised (15/1), 13Avery's Wonderland (8/1), 7Force Of Mischief (12/1), 4Quell (30/1), 2Addagirl Addie (30/1), 15Peggie Castle (12/1), 9Burgundie Rose (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 315141011
🎯 Longshots: 136851310141112715429
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 162 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-25.

0%10%20%30%39%Our top pick: 31.5% from 162 racesOur top pick31.5%Expert consensus pick: 28.4% from 162 racesExpert consensus pick28.4%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.5%162
Expert consensus pick28.4%162
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Ur Desire (6/5) 40% · fair 3-2
Place:1Queen Sally (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:5Essence L Vee (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -42%
Other contenders:3Luckforyou (15/1) 10% · fair 19-2 overlay +60%, 2Roseberns Dream (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:6Bodegas (6/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -64%, 7Icy Legs (10/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -54%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ur Desire — 39.6% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Ur Desire39.6% ◀Queen Sally — 17.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Queen Sally17.1%Essence L Vee — 16.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Essence L Vee16.2%Luckforyou — 9.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Luckforyou9.6%Roseberns Dream — 7.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Roseberns Dream7.4%Bodegas — 5.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Bodegas5.6%Icy Legs — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Icy Legs4.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ur Desire39.6%1.2/1
Queen Sally17.1%4/1
Essence L Vee16.2%3/1
Luckforyou9.6%15/1
Roseberns Dream7.4%10/1
Bodegas5.6%6/1
Icy Legs4.4%10/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherUr Desire: model 39.6% vs market 35.2% (+4.4 points)Ur Desire+4.4Queen Sally: model 17.1% vs market 15.5% (+1.6 points)Queen Sally+1.6Essence L Vee: model 16.2% vs market 19.4% (-3.2 points)Essence L Vee-3.2Luckforyou: model 9.6% vs market 4.8% (+4.8 points)Luckforyou+4.8Roseberns Dream: model 7.4% vs market 7.0% (+0.4 points)Roseberns Dream+0.4Bodegas: model 5.6% vs market 11.1% (-5.4 points)Bodegas-5.4Icy Legs: model 4.4% vs market 7.0% (-2.6 points)Icy Legs-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ur Desire39.6%35.2%+4.4
Queen Sally17.1%15.5%+1.6
Essence L Vee16.2%19.4%-3.2
Luckforyou9.6%4.8%+4.8
Roseberns Dream7.4%7.0%+0.4
Bodegas5.6%11.1%-5.4
Icy Legs4.4%7.0%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 451627
🎯 Longshots: 4572316
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Nevah Bettah (2/1) 54% · fair 4-5 overlay +131%
Place:6Jetty Up (3/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -63%
Show:1Rapidly Royal (12/1) 11% · fair 17-2 overlay +43%
Other contenders:4Key Factor (4/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -63%, 7Bankingonit (9/2) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -62%
Rest of field:2Tiz The Name (8/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -64%, 5Kaz' Special One (6/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -75%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Nevah Bettah — 53.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Nevah Bettah53.6% ◀Jetty Up — 11.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Jetty Up11.1%Rapidly Royal — 10.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Rapidly Royal10.6%Key Factor — 8.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Key Factor8.5%Bankingonit — 7.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Bankingonit7.8%Tiz The Name — 4.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Tiz The Name4.4%Kaz' Special One — 4.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Kaz' Special One4.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Nevah Bettah53.6%2/1
Jetty Up11.1%3/1
Rapidly Royal10.6%12/1
Key Factor8.5%4/1
Bankingonit7.8%4.5/1
Tiz The Name4.4%8/1
Kaz' Special One4.0%6/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNevah Bettah: model 53.6% vs market 25.7% (+27.9 points)Nevah Bettah+27.9Jetty Up: model 11.1% vs market 19.3% (-8.2 points)Jetty Up-8.2Rapidly Royal: model 10.6% vs market 5.9% (+4.7 points)Rapidly Royal+4.7Key Factor: model 8.5% vs market 15.4% (-6.9 points)Key Factor-6.9Bankingonit: model 7.8% vs market 14.0% (-6.2 points)Bankingonit-6.2Tiz The Name: model 4.4% vs market 8.6% (-4.2 points)Tiz The Name-4.2Kaz' Special One: model 4.0% vs market 11.0% (-7.0 points)Kaz' Special One-7.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Nevah Bettah53.6%25.7%+27.9
Jetty Up11.1%19.3%-8.2
Rapidly Royal10.6%5.9%+4.7
Key Factor8.5%15.4%-6.9
Bankingonit7.8%14.0%-6.2
Tiz The Name4.4%8.6%-4.2
Kaz' Special One4.0%11.0%-7.0
🌧️ Off-track: 364752
🎯 Longshots: 3647512
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Karsten (3/1) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +39%
Place:1Story Of Rory (7/2) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:7Sultan Hassan (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:4Daisy Doo (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1, 5Lolimo (4/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -79%
Rest of field:2Runcot (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -45%, 3Bitter Banker (20/1) 2% · fair 61-1 underlay -67%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Karsten — 31.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Karsten31.6% ◀Story Of Rory — 20.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Story Of Rory20.7%Sultan Hassan — 20.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Sultan Hassan20.3%Daisy Doo — 16.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Daisy Doo16.4%Lolimo — 4.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Lolimo4.9%Runcot — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Runcot4.4%Bitter Banker — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Bitter Banker1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Karsten31.6%3/1
Story Of Rory20.7%3.5/1
Sultan Hassan20.3%3.5/1
Daisy Doo16.4%4/1
Lolimo4.9%4/1
Runcot4.4%12/1
Bitter Banker1.6%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKarsten: model 31.6% vs market 20.5% (+11.1 points)Karsten+11.1Story Of Rory: model 20.7% vs market 18.2% (+2.5 points)Story Of Rory+2.5Sultan Hassan: model 20.3% vs market 18.2% (+2.1 points)Sultan Hassan+2.1Daisy Doo: model 16.4% vs market 16.4% (-0.0 points)Daisy Doo-0.0Lolimo: model 4.9% vs market 16.4% (-11.5 points)Lolimo-11.5Runcot: model 4.4% vs market 6.3% (-1.9 points)Runcot-1.9Bitter Banker: model 1.6% vs market 3.9% (-2.3 points)Bitter Banker-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Karsten31.6%20.5%+11.1
Story Of Rory20.7%18.2%+2.5
Sultan Hassan20.3%18.2%+2.1
Daisy Doo16.4%16.4%-0.0
Lolimo4.9%16.4%-11.5
Runcot4.4%6.3%-1.9
Bitter Banker1.6%3.9%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 617452
🎯 Longshots: 6715423
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $44,000
Win:5Counterspy (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:2Ancient World (4/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:4Osbourne (2/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -50%
Other contenders:7Treaty Obligation (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -28%, 3Burninhunkoflove (10/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -50%, 6Without Pretence (15/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -32%
Rest of field:8Sin Nombre (20/1) 2% · fair 111-2 underlay -64%, 1Graywing (30/1) 1% · fair 69-1 underlay -57%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Counterspy — 27.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Counterspy27.2% ◀Ancient World — 21.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Ancient World21.1%Osbourne — 20.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Osbourne20.1%Treaty Obligation — 19.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Treaty Obligation19.4%Burninhunkoflove — 4.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Burninhunkoflove4.7%Without Pretence — 4.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Without Pretence4.3%Sin Nombre — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Sin Nombre1.8%Graywing — 1.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Graywing1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Counterspy27.2%2.5/1
Ancient World21.1%4/1
Osbourne20.1%2/1
Treaty Obligation19.4%3/1
Burninhunkoflove4.7%10/1
Without Pretence4.3%15/1
Sin Nombre1.8%20/1
Graywing1.4%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCounterspy: model 27.2% vs market 21.9% (+5.3 points)Counterspy+5.3Ancient World: model 21.1% vs market 15.4% (+5.7 points)Ancient World+5.7Osbourne: model 20.1% vs market 25.6% (-5.5 points)Osbourne-5.5Treaty Obligation: model 19.4% vs market 19.2% (+0.2 points)Treaty Obligation+0.2Burninhunkoflove: model 4.7% vs market 7.0% (-2.3 points)Burninhunkoflove-2.3Without Pretence: model 4.3% vs market 4.8% (-0.5 points)Without Pretence-0.5Sin Nombre: model 1.8% vs market 3.7% (-1.9 points)Sin Nombre-1.9Graywing: model 1.4% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)Graywing-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Counterspy27.2%21.9%+5.3
Ancient World21.1%15.4%+5.7
Osbourne20.1%25.6%-5.5
Treaty Obligation19.4%19.2%+0.2
Burninhunkoflove4.7%7.0%-2.3
Without Pretence4.3%4.8%-0.5
Sin Nombre1.8%3.7%-1.9
Graywing1.4%2.5%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 547236
🎯 Longshots: 45723681
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:4Old Time Rocknroll (3/1) 25% · fair 3-1
Place:6Orgonite (4/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -25%
Show:12Duty (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:3Souper Cha Ching (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 10Languid (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 1Mortal Lock (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -52%, 9Cost Effective (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -26%
Rest of field:2Fleet N Ready (20/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -47%, 5Conquering Force (20/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -60%, 7Cederberg (12/1) 2% · fair 117-2 underlay -79%, 11Go Dharma (30/1) 0% · fair 405-2 underlay -85%, 8Trapping Hands (50/1) 0% · fair 606-1 underlay -92%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Old Time Rocknroll — 25.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Old Time Rocknroll25.3% ◀Orgonite — 15.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Orgonite15.8%Duty — 13.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Duty13.7%Souper Cha Ching — 13.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Souper Cha Ching13.2%Languid — 9.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Languid9.5%Mortal Lock — 8.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Mortal Lock8.8%Cost Effective — 6.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Cost Effective6.9%Fleet N Ready — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Fleet N Ready2.6%Conquering Force — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Conquering Force1.9%Cederberg — 1.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Cederberg1.7%Go Dharma — 0.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Go Dharma0.5%Trapping Hands — 0.2% win probability, morning line 50/1Trapping Hands0.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Old Time Rocknroll25.3%3/1
Orgonite15.8%4/1
Duty13.7%6/1
Souper Cha Ching13.2%8/1
Languid9.5%8/1
Mortal Lock8.8%5/1
Cost Effective6.9%10/1
Fleet N Ready2.6%20/1
Conquering Force1.9%20/1
Cederberg1.7%12/1
Go Dharma0.5%30/1
Trapping Hands0.2%50/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOld Time Rocknroll: model 25.3% vs market 19.3% (+6.0 points)Old Time Rocknroll+6.0Orgonite: model 15.8% vs market 15.4% (+0.4 points)Orgonite+0.4Duty: model 13.7% vs market 11.0% (+2.7 points)Duty+2.7Souper Cha Ching: model 13.2% vs market 8.6% (+4.6 points)Souper Cha Ching+4.6Languid: model 9.5% vs market 8.6% (+1.0 points)Languid+1.0Mortal Lock: model 8.8% vs market 12.9% (-4.1 points)Mortal Lock-4.1Cost Effective: model 6.9% vs market 7.0% (-0.1 points)Cost Effective-0.1Fleet N Ready: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Fleet N Ready-1.1Conquering Force: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.7 points)Conquering Force-1.7Cederberg: model 1.7% vs market 5.9% (-4.3 points)Cederberg-4.3Go Dharma: model 0.5% vs market 2.5% (-2.0 points)Go Dharma-2.0Trapping Hands: model 0.2% vs market 1.5% (-1.3 points)Trapping Hands-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Old Time Rocknroll25.3%19.3%+6.0
Orgonite15.8%15.4%+0.4
Duty13.7%11.0%+2.7
Souper Cha Ching13.2%8.6%+4.6
Languid9.5%8.6%+1.0
Mortal Lock8.8%12.9%-4.1
Cost Effective6.9%7.0%-0.1
Fleet N Ready2.6%3.7%-1.1
Conquering Force1.9%3.7%-1.7
Cederberg1.7%5.9%-4.3
Go Dharma0.5%2.5%-2.0
Trapping Hands0.2%1.5%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 46121310
🎯 Longshots: 412106391257118
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #12, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:4Vino Frizzante (7/2) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +25%
Place:3Pocket Queens (9/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:5Dia Por Dia (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -58%
Other contenders:2That'sthefactjack (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -46%, 7Moonlight Gal (8/1) 8% · fair 25-2 underlay -35%, 1Amy's Light (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2
Rest of field:6Caradise (12/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -42%, 8Calling An Audible (20/1) 4% · fair 47-2
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Vino Frizzante — 26.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Vino Frizzante26.3% ◀Pocket Queens — 18.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Pocket Queens18.9%Dia Por Dia — 17.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Dia Por Dia17.2%That'Sthefactjack — 15.4% win probability, morning line 3/1That'Sthefactjack15.4%Moonlight Gal — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Moonlight Gal7.5%Amy'S Light — 6.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Amy'S Light6.0%Caradise — 4.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Caradise4.6%Calling An Audible — 4.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Calling An Audible4.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Vino Frizzante26.3%3.5/1
Pocket Queens18.9%4.5/1
Dia Por Dia17.2%2/1
That'Sthefactjack15.4%3/1
Moonlight Gal7.5%8/1
Amy'S Light6.0%15/1
Caradise4.6%12/1
Calling An Audible4.1%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVino Frizzante: model 26.3% vs market 17.3% (+9.0 points)Vino Frizzante+9.0Pocket Queens: model 18.9% vs market 14.1% (+4.7 points)Pocket Queens+4.7Dia Por Dia: model 17.2% vs market 25.9% (-8.7 points)Dia Por Dia-8.7That'Sthefactjack: model 15.4% vs market 19.4% (-4.1 points)That'Sthefactjack-4.1Moonlight Gal: model 7.5% vs market 8.6% (-1.1 points)Moonlight Gal-1.1Amy'S Light: model 6.0% vs market 4.9% (+1.1 points)Amy'S Light+1.1Caradise: model 4.6% vs market 6.0% (-1.4 points)Caradise-1.4Calling An Audible: model 4.1% vs market 3.7% (+0.4 points)Calling An Audible+0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Vino Frizzante26.3%17.3%+9.0
Pocket Queens18.9%14.1%+4.7
Dia Por Dia17.2%25.9%-8.7
That'Sthefactjack15.4%19.4%-4.1
Moonlight Gal7.5%8.6%-1.1
Amy'S Light6.0%4.9%+1.1
Caradise4.6%6.0%-1.4
Calling An Audible4.1%3.7%+0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 452376
🎯 Longshots: 54732618
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 7/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:1Hill Road (9/2) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +58%
Place:4Eff Thirty Five (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:6Market Timing (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:7Arkhipov (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -40%, 3Il Siciliano (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%, 8Hardspun Reason (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%
Rest of field:5Concord Green (6/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -78%, 2Daunt (20/1) 2% · fair 39-1 underlay -49%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hill Road — 25.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Hill Road25.9% ◀Eff Thirty Five — 20.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Eff Thirty Five20.3%Market Timing — 18.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Market Timing18.3%Arkhipov — 16.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Arkhipov16.7%Il Siciliano — 6.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Il Siciliano6.9%Hardspun Reason — 5.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Hardspun Reason5.7%Concord Green — 3.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Concord Green3.6%Daunt — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Daunt2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hill Road25.9%4.5/1
Eff Thirty Five20.3%3.5/1
Market Timing18.3%4/1
Arkhipov16.7%3/1
Il Siciliano6.9%6/1
Hardspun Reason5.7%10/1
Concord Green3.6%6/1
Daunt2.5%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHill Road: model 25.9% vs market 14.2% (+11.7 points)Hill Road+11.7Eff Thirty Five: model 20.3% vs market 17.4% (+2.9 points)Eff Thirty Five+2.9Market Timing: model 18.3% vs market 15.6% (+2.7 points)Market Timing+2.7Arkhipov: model 16.7% vs market 19.6% (-2.8 points)Arkhipov-2.8Il Siciliano: model 6.9% vs market 11.2% (-4.2 points)Il Siciliano-4.2Hardspun Reason: model 5.7% vs market 7.1% (-1.4 points)Hardspun Reason-1.4Concord Green: model 3.6% vs market 11.2% (-7.6 points)Concord Green-7.6Daunt: model 2.5% vs market 3.7% (-1.2 points)Daunt-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hill Road25.9%14.2%+11.7
Eff Thirty Five20.3%17.4%+2.9
Market Timing18.3%15.6%+2.7
Arkhipov16.7%19.6%-2.8
Il Siciliano6.9%11.2%-4.2
Hardspun Reason5.7%7.1%-1.4
Concord Green3.6%11.2%-7.6
Daunt2.5%3.7%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 147635
🎯 Longshots: 76418325
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $56,000
Win:3Copper Caduceus (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -28%
Place:10Midnight Blue (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1
Show:5Chaumet (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -40%
Other contenders:14Daylight Dreamer (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -43%, 1Amira's Star (4/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -58%, 11Suited Connectors (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -49%, 6You Know Better (8/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -52%, 8No Need To Panic (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2
Rest of field:13Avery's Wonderland (8/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -62%, 7Force Of Mischief (12/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -46%, 12Raised (15/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -40%, 4Quell (30/1) 2% · fair 44-1 underlay -32%, 2Addagirl Addie (30/1) 2% · fair 111-2 underlay -46%, 9Burgundie Rose (50/1) 0% · fair 423-2 underlay -76%, 15Peggie Castle (12/1) 0% · fair 485-2 underlay -95%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Copper Caduceus — 19.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Copper Caduceus19.4% ◀Midnight Blue — 12.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Midnight Blue12.5%Chaumet — 11.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Chaumet11.8%Daylight Dreamer — 10.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Daylight Dreamer10.3%Amira'S Star — 9.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Amira'S Star9.6%Suited Connectors — 7.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Suited Connectors7.9%You Know Better — 5.7% win probability, morning line 8/1You Know Better5.7%No Need To Panic — 5.4% win probability, morning line 15/1No Need To Panic5.4%Avery'S Wonderland — 4.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Avery'S Wonderland4.6%Force Of Mischief — 4.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Force Of Mischief4.3%Raised — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Raised3.8%Quell — 2.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Quell2.2%Addagirl Addie — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Addagirl Addie1.8%Burgundie Rose — 0.5% win probability, morning line 50/1Burgundie Rose0.5%Peggie Castle — 0.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Peggie Castle0.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Copper Caduceus19.4%3/1
Midnight Blue12.5%6/1
Chaumet11.8%4.5/1
Daylight Dreamer10.3%5/1
Amira'S Star9.6%4/1
Suited Connectors7.9%6/1
You Know Better5.7%8/1
No Need To Panic5.4%15/1
Avery'S Wonderland4.6%8/1
Force Of Mischief4.3%12/1
Raised3.8%15/1
Quell2.2%30/1
Addagirl Addie1.8%30/1
Burgundie Rose0.5%50/1
Peggie Castle0.4%12/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCopper Caduceus: model 19.4% vs market 15.0% (+4.4 points)Copper Caduceus+4.4Midnight Blue: model 12.5% vs market 8.6% (+3.9 points)Midnight Blue+3.9Chaumet: model 11.8% vs market 10.9% (+0.9 points)Chaumet+0.9Daylight Dreamer: model 10.3% vs market 10.0% (+0.3 points)Daylight Dreamer+0.3Amira'S Star: model 9.6% vs market 12.0% (-2.4 points)Amira'S Star-2.4Suited Connectors: model 7.9% vs market 8.6% (-0.7 points)Suited Connectors-0.7You Know Better: model 5.7% vs market 6.7% (-1.0 points)You Know Better-1.0No Need To Panic: model 5.4% vs market 3.7% (+1.6 points)No Need To Panic+1.6Avery'S Wonderland: model 4.6% vs market 6.7% (-2.1 points)Avery'S Wonderland-2.1Force Of Mischief: model 4.3% vs market 4.6% (-0.3 points)Force Of Mischief-0.3Raised: model 3.8% vs market 3.7% (+0.1 points)Raised+0.1Quell: model 2.2% vs market 1.9% (+0.3 points)Quell+0.3Addagirl Addie: model 1.8% vs market 1.9% (-0.2 points)Addagirl Addie-0.2Burgundie Rose: model 0.5% vs market 1.2% (-0.7 points)Burgundie Rose-0.7Peggie Castle: model 0.4% vs market 4.6% (-4.2 points)Peggie Castle-4.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Copper Caduceus19.4%15.0%+4.4
Midnight Blue12.5%8.6%+3.9
Chaumet11.8%10.9%+0.9
Daylight Dreamer10.3%10.0%+0.3
Amira'S Star9.6%12.0%-2.4
Suited Connectors7.9%8.6%-0.7
You Know Better5.7%6.7%-1.0
No Need To Panic5.4%3.7%+1.6
Avery'S Wonderland4.6%6.7%-2.1
Force Of Mischief4.3%4.6%-0.3
Raised3.8%3.7%+0.1
Quell2.2%1.9%+0.3
Addagirl Addie1.8%1.9%-0.2
Burgundie Rose0.5%1.2%-0.7
Peggie Castle0.4%4.6%-4.2
🌧️ Off-track: 351101411
🎯 Longshots: 136851310141112715429
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #5, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Belmont — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 163 graded races at Belmont, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-25.

0%10%20%30%41%Our top pick: 32.5% from 163 racesOur top pick32.5%Expert consensus pick: 27.6% from 163 racesExpert consensus pick27.6%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick32.5%163
Expert consensus pick27.6%163
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Ur Desire (6/5)
Place:1Queen Sally (4/1)
Show:5Essence L Vee (3/1)
Other contenders:2Roseberns Dream (10/1), 3Luckforyou (15/1)
Rest of field:7Icy Legs (10/1), 6Bodegas (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 451627
🎯 Longshots: 4572316
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Nevah Bettah (2/1)
Place:6Jetty Up (3/1)
Show:1Rapidly Royal (12/1)
Other contenders:4Key Factor (4/1), 7Bankingonit (9/2)
Rest of field:5Kaz' Special One (6/1), 2Tiz The Name (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364751
🎯 Longshots: 3647512
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Karsten (3/1)
Place:1Story Of Rory (7/2)
Show:7Sultan Hassan (7/2)
Other contenders:4Daisy Doo (4/1), 5Lolimo (4/1)
Rest of field:2Runcot (12/1), 3Bitter Banker (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 617452
🎯 Longshots: 6715423
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $44,000
Win:7Treaty Obligation (3/1)
Place:4Osbourne (2/1)
Show:2Ancient World (4/1)
Other contenders:5Counterspy (5/2), 3Burninhunkoflove (10/1), 6Without Pretence (15/1)
Rest of field:1Graywing (30/1), 8Sin Nombre (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 457236
🎯 Longshots: 45723681
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:4Old Time Rocknroll (3/1)
Place:12Duty (6/1)
Show:9Cost Effective (10/1)
Other contenders:10Languid (8/1), 3Souper Cha Ching (8/1), 6Orgonite (4/1), 1Mortal Lock (5/1)
Rest of field:7Cederberg (12/1), 5Conquering Force (20/1), 2Fleet N Ready (20/1), 11Go Dharma (30/1), 8Trapping Hands (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 46121103
🎯 Longshots: 412106391257118
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #12, #9, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:4Vino Frizzante (7/2)
Place:5Dia Por Dia (2/1)
Show:3Pocket Queens (9/2)
Other contenders:2That'sthefactjack (3/1), 7Moonlight Gal (8/1), 1Amy's Light (15/1)
Rest of field:6Caradise (12/1), 8Calling An Audible (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 542376
🎯 Longshots: 54732618
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 7/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:7Arkhipov (3/1)
Place:1Hill Road (9/2)
Show:6Market Timing (4/1)
Other contenders:4Eff Thirty Five (7/2), 3Il Siciliano (6/1), 5Concord Green (6/1)
Rest of field:8Hardspun Reason (10/1), 2Daunt (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 764135
🎯 Longshots: 76418325
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $56,000
Win:3Copper Caduceus (3/1)
Place:14Daylight Dreamer (5/1)
Show:1Amira's Star (4/1)
Other contenders:5Chaumet (9/2), 13Avery's Wonderland (8/1), 10Midnight Blue (6/1), 6You Know Better (8/1), 11Suited Connectors (6/1)
Rest of field:7Force Of Mischief (12/1), 12Raised (15/1), 8No Need To Panic (15/1), 15Peggie Castle (12/1), 4Quell (30/1), 2Addagirl Addie (30/1), 9Burgundie Rose (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 315141011
🎯 Longshots: 136851310141112715429
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #14, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #1, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #7, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #12, #3, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #5 over #4 ($1 straight; box #5-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #7 over #6 ($1 straight; box #7-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #14, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.40 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
88No Need To Panic15/1—6.7%+7.0%0.12%$0.12
TOTAL across 1 play:0.1%$0.12
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Ur Desire (6/5)
Place:1Queen Sally (4/1)
Show:5Essence L Vee (3/1)
Other contenders:7Icy Legs (10/1), 2Roseberns Dream (10/1)
Rest of field:3Luckforyou (15/1), 6Bodegas (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 451672
🎯 Longshots: 4572316
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Nevah Bettah (2/1)
Place:6Jetty Up (3/1)
Show:1Rapidly Royal (12/1)
Other contenders:4Key Factor (4/1), 7Bankingonit (9/2)
Rest of field:5Kaz' Special One (6/1), 2Tiz The Name (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364751
🎯 Longshots: 3647512
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:6Karsten (3/1)
Place:1Story Of Rory (7/2)
Show:7Sultan Hassan (7/2)
Other contenders:5Lolimo (4/1), 4Daisy Doo (4/1)
Rest of field:2Runcot (12/1), 3Bitter Banker (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 617542
🎯 Longshots: 6715423
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $44,000
Win:4Osbourne (2/1)
Place:7Treaty Obligation (3/1)
Show:2Ancient World (4/1)
Other contenders:5Counterspy (5/2), 3Burninhunkoflove (10/1), 6Without Pretence (15/1)
Rest of field:8Sin Nombre (20/1), 1Graywing (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 457236
🎯 Longshots: 45723681
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:4Old Time Rocknroll (3/1)
Place:12Duty (6/1)
Show:6Orgonite (4/1)
Other contenders:1Mortal Lock (5/1), 3Souper Cha Ching (8/1), 10Languid (8/1), 7Cederberg (12/1)
Rest of field:9Cost Effective (10/1), 11Go Dharma (30/1), 5Conquering Force (20/1), 2Fleet N Ready (20/1), 8Trapping Hands (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 46112310
🎯 Longshots: 412106391257118
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #12, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:5Dia Por Dia (2/1)
Place:4Vino Frizzante (7/2)
Show:3Pocket Queens (9/2)
Other contenders:2That'sthefactjack (3/1), 7Moonlight Gal (8/1), 6Caradise (12/1)
Rest of field:1Amy's Light (15/1), 8Calling An Audible (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 542376
🎯 Longshots: 54732618
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 7/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:7Arkhipov (3/1)
Place:1Hill Road (9/2)
Show:6Market Timing (4/1)
Other contenders:4Eff Thirty Five (7/2), 5Concord Green (6/1), 3Il Siciliano (6/1)
Rest of field:8Hardspun Reason (10/1), 2Daunt (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 746153
🎯 Longshots: 76418325
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $56,000
Win:3Copper Caduceus (3/1)
Place:6You Know Better (8/1)
Show:1Amira's Star (4/1)
Other contenders:5Chaumet (9/2), 14Daylight Dreamer (5/1), 13Avery's Wonderland (8/1), 10Midnight Blue (6/1), 11Suited Connectors (6/1)
Rest of field:7Force Of Mischief (12/1), 8No Need To Panic (15/1), 12Raised (15/1), 15Peggie Castle (12/1), 2Addagirl Addie (30/1), 4Quell (30/1), 9Burgundie Rose (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31514610
🎯 Longshots: 136851310141112715429
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Ur Desire (6/5)
Place:1Queen Sally (4/1)
Show:2Roseberns Dream (10/1)
Other contenders:5Essence L Vee (3/1), 3Luckforyou (15/1)
Rest of field:7Icy Legs (10/1), 6Bodegas (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 451627
🎯 Longshots: 4572316
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:3Nevah Bettah (2/1)
Place:1Rapidly Royal (12/1)
Show:6Jetty Up (3/1)
Other contenders:4Key Factor (4/1), 7Bankingonit (9/2)
Rest of field:5Kaz' Special One (6/1), 2Tiz The Name (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364751
🎯 Longshots: 3647512
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $100,000
Win:1Story Of Rory (7/2)
Place:6Karsten (3/1)
Show:7Sultan Hassan (7/2)
Other contenders:4Daisy Doo (4/1), 5Lolimo (4/1)
Rest of field:2Runcot (12/1), 3Bitter Banker (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 617452
🎯 Longshots: 6715423
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $44,000
Win:5Counterspy (5/2)
Place:7Treaty Obligation (3/1)
Show:4Osbourne (2/1)
Other contenders:2Ancient World (4/1), 3Burninhunkoflove (10/1), 6Without Pretence (15/1)
Rest of field:8Sin Nombre (20/1), 1Graywing (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 457236
🎯 Longshots: 45723681
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $59,000
Win:4Old Time Rocknroll (3/1)
Place:12Duty (6/1)
Show:3Souper Cha Ching (8/1)
Other contenders:10Languid (8/1), 6Orgonite (4/1), 1Mortal Lock (5/1), 9Cost Effective (10/1)
Rest of field:2Fleet N Ready (20/1), 5Conquering Force (20/1), 7Cederberg (12/1), 11Go Dharma (30/1), 8Trapping Hands (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 46121310
🎯 Longshots: 412106391257118
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #12, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $40,000
Win:4Vino Frizzante (7/2)
Place:5Dia Por Dia (2/1)
Show:3Pocket Queens (9/2)
Other contenders:2That'sthefactjack (3/1), 7Moonlight Gal (8/1), 8Calling An Audible (20/1)
Rest of field:1Amy's Light (15/1), 6Caradise (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524376
🎯 Longshots: 54732618
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 7/16 Miles · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $108,000
Win:6Market Timing (4/1)
Place:1Hill Road (9/2)
Show:7Arkhipov (3/1)
Other contenders:4Eff Thirty Five (7/2), 3Il Siciliano (6/1), 2Daunt (20/1)
Rest of field:5Concord Green (6/1), 8Hardspun Reason (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 674135
🎯 Longshots: 76418325
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $56,000
Win:3Copper Caduceus (3/1)
Place:5Chaumet (9/2)
Show:14Daylight Dreamer (5/1)
Other contenders:6You Know Better (8/1), 7Force Of Mischief (12/1), 1Amira's Star (4/1), 10Midnight Blue (6/1), 13Avery's Wonderland (8/1)
Rest of field:8No Need To Panic (15/1), 11Suited Connectors (6/1), 12Raised (15/1), 2Addagirl Addie (30/1), 4Quell (30/1), 15Peggie Castle (12/1), 9Burgundie Rose (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 35114106
🎯 Longshots: 136851310141112715429
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #14, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #4,#1,#5 (73%) / R2: #3,#6 (65%) / R3: #6,#1,#7 (73%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#6 (65%) / R3: #6,#1,#7 (73%) / R4: #5,#2,#4 (68%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #6,#1,#7 (73%) / R4: #5,#2,#4 (68%) / R5: #4,#6,#12 (55%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #5,#2,#4 (68%) / R5: #4,#6,#12 (55%) / R6: #4,#3,#5 (62%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #4,#1,#5 (73%) / R2: #3,#6 (65%) / R3: #6,#1,#7 (73%) / R4: #5,#2,#4 (68%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#6 (65%) / R3: #6,#1,#7 (73%) / R4: #5,#2,#4 (68%) / R5: #4,#6,#12 (55%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADDAGIRL ADDIEAMIRA'S STARAMY'S LIGHTANCIENT WORLDARKHIPOV
BANKINGONITBITTER BANKERBODEGASBURGUNDIE ROSEBURNINHUNKOFLOVE
CARADISECEDERBERGCHAUMETCONCORD GREENCONQUERING FORCE
COST EFFECTIVECOUNTERSPYDAISY DOODAUNTDAYLIGHT DREAMER
DUTYEFF THIRTY FIVEESSENCE L VEEFLEET N READYFORCE OF MISCHIEF
GRAYWINGHARDSPUN REASONHILL ROADICY LEGSIL SICILIANO
KARSTENKAZ' SPECIAL ONEKEY FACTORLANGUIDLOLIMO
MARKET TIMINGMIDNIGHT BLUEMOONLIGHT GALMORTAL LOCKNEVAH BETTAH
OLD TIME ROCKNROLLORGONITEOSBOURNEPEGGIE CASTLEPOCKET QUEENS
QUELLRAISEDRAPIDLY ROYALROSEBERNS DREAMRUNCOT
SOUPER CHA CHINGSTORY OF RORYSUITED CONNECTORSSULTAN HASSANTHAT'STHEFACTJACK
TRAPPING HANDSTREATY OBLIGATIONUR DESIREVINO FRIZZANTEWITHOUT PRETENCE

 


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