Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Pick Pony's AI picks work best when used with our Past Performance reports to enhance your handicapping and are especially effective for identifying potential longshot selections. You can purchase custom Past Performance reports through one of our subscription options. Learn more about Pick Pony's Past Performance reports here. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
Algo Picks – Algo 1
| Race 4 | |
| Win: | 3 – Pat's Paddock Pick (3/1) |
| Place: | 8 – Dr. Perry (6/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Shake Up (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Awesome Fantasy (9/2), 7 – Saint Charles (6/1), 5 – High Probability (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Stability (10/1), 4 – Go The Distance (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-5-2-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-2-6-5-1-8-7 | |
| Race 5 | |
| Win: | 1 – Mor Tiger Paw (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 – Southgate Gator (9/5) |
| Show: | 5 – Special Agent Man (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Shances R (4/1), 6 – Tangos Mischief (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Risky Bourbon (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-2-1-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-5-2-6-3 | |
| Race 6 | |
| Win: | 2 – English Icon (5/2) |
| Place: | 8 – Lieutenant Charm (4/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Loco Por Ser Libre (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Neoteric (6/1), 7 – Saint Robert's Row (5/1), 6 – Road Rules (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9 – This Beau Knows (8/1), 3 – Maximum Defense (12/1), 4 – Fiftyshadesofnauti (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-6-9-8-3-4-7-1 | |
| Race 7 | |
| Win: | 2 – Found My Ball (5/2) |
| Place: | 7 – Lord Knows (9/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Arrest (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Mr Fabricator (6/1), 8 – Mendelssohn Joy (6/1), 5 – Caught Off Guard (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Jackie Paper (4/1), 3 – Mansoura (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-2-5-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-7-1-4-6-8-3 | |
| Race 8 | |
| Win: | 7 – Hey River (4/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Eightysixchevy (9/5) |
| Show: | 6 – Classic Rick (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Gianno (3/1), 3 – Lightning Struck (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – North Arm Bay (5/1), 4 – Catholic Guilt (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-7-6-1-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-2-7-6-5-4 | |
| Race 9 | |
| Win: | 4 – Thirsty Vision (9/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Sir Sterling (2/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Socal Red (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Face Value (6/1), 7 – One Big Haas (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Kaely's Brother (10/1), 5 – Holiday Fantasy (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-3-7-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-2-7-6-5-1 | |
| AI Weight Settings |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
Algo Picks – Algo 2
| Race 4 | |
| Win: | 2 – Shake Up (4/1) |
| Place: | 3 – Pat's Paddock Pick (3/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Dr. Perry (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – High Probability (5/1), 6 – Awesome Fantasy (9/2), 7 – Saint Charles (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Stability (10/1), 4 – Go The Distance (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-2-5-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-2-6-5-1-8-7 | |
| Race 5 | |
| Win: | 4 – Southgate Gator (9/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Special Agent Man (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Mor Tiger Paw (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Shances R (4/1), 3 – Risky Bourbon (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Tangos Mischief (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-5-2-6-3 | |
| Race 6 | |
| Win: | 2 – English Icon (5/2) |
| Place: | 8 – Lieutenant Charm (4/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Neoteric (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Saint Robert's Row (5/1), 1 – Loco Por Ser Libre (6/1), 9 – This Beau Knows (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Road Rules (12/1), 4 – Fiftyshadesofnauti (15/1), 3 – Maximum Defense (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-2-1-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-6-9-8-3-4-7-1 | |
| Race 7 | |
| Win: | 2 – Found My Ball (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 – Mr Fabricator (6/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Lord Knows (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Jackie Paper (4/1), 4 – Arrest (5/1), 5 – Caught Off Guard (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Mendelssohn Joy (6/1), 3 – Mansoura (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-2-5-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-7-1-4-6-8-3 | |
| Race 8 | |
| Win: | 1 – Eightysixchevy (9/5) |
| Place: | 7 – Hey River (4/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Gianno (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Classic Rick (6/1), 5 – North Arm Bay (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Lightning Struck (8/1), 4 – Catholic Guilt (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-5-6-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-2-7-6-5-4 | |
| Race 9 | |
| Win: | 4 – Thirsty Vision (9/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Sir Sterling (2/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Socal Red (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Face Value (6/1), 7 – One Big Haas (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Holiday Fantasy (15/1), 2 – Kaely's Brother (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-3-7-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-2-7-6-5-1 | |
| AI Weight Settings |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Algo Picks – Algo 3
| Race 4 | |
| Win: | 2 – Shake Up (4/1) |
| Place: | 3 – Pat's Paddock Pick (3/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Dr. Perry (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – High Probability (5/1), 6 – Awesome Fantasy (9/2), 1 – Stability (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Saint Charles (6/1), 4 – Go The Distance (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-2-5-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-2-6-5-1-8-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 | |
| Win: | 4 – Southgate Gator (9/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Special Agent Man (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Mor Tiger Paw (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Shances R (4/1), 6 – Tangos Mischief (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Risky Bourbon (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-2-1-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 | |
| Win: | 2 – English Icon (5/2) |
| Place: | 8 – Lieutenant Charm (4/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Saint Robert's Row (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Neoteric (6/1), 1 – Loco Por Ser Libre (6/1), 9 – This Beau Knows (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Road Rules (12/1), 4 – Fiftyshadesofnauti (15/1), 3 – Maximum Defense (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-2-1-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-6-9-8-3-4-7-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 | |
| Win: | 2 – Found My Ball (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 – Mr Fabricator (6/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Lord Knows (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Jackie Paper (4/1), 4 – Arrest (5/1), 5 – Caught Off Guard (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Mendelssohn Joy (6/1), 3 – Mansoura (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-2-5-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-7-1-4-6-8-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 | |
| Win: | 1 – Eightysixchevy (9/5) |
| Place: | 7 – Hey River (4/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Gianno (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Classic Rick (6/1), 5 – North Arm Bay (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Lightning Struck (8/1), 4 – Catholic Guilt (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-5-6-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-2-7-6-5-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 | |
| Win: | 4 – Thirsty Vision (9/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Sir Sterling (2/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Socal Red (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Face Value (6/1), 7 – One Big Haas (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Kaely's Brother (10/1), 5 – Holiday Fantasy (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-3-7-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-2-7-6-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settings |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 1, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 13, Mid Pace: 99, Late Pace: 48, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 1, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 37, Medications: 95, Weather: 16, Race Trouble: 82, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 1, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Kelly Edge Plays
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: multidim) Morning-line reliability: +0.39 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) | ||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 4 | 1 – Stability | 10/1 | 17.4% | +93.9% | 2.35% | $2.35 |
| 6 | 4 – Fiftyshadesofnauti | 15/1 | 11.1% | +79.0% | 1.32% | $1.32 |
| 8 | 4 – Catholic Guilt | 20/1 | 6.9% | +45.2% | 0.56% | $0.56 |
| TOTAL across 3 plays: | 4.2% | $4.23 | ||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | ||||||
Index - Horses Running In This Card
| ARREST | AWESOME FANTASY | CAN YOU HERE ME NOW | CATHOLIC GUILT | CAUGHT OFF GUARD |
| DEFIANT V | DM FLYIN FIRST CLASS | DR. PERRY | EIGHTYSIXCHEVY | ENGLISH ICON |
| FIFTYSHADESOFNAUTI | FIRE IN D SKY | FOUND MY BALL | GIANNO | GO THE DISTANCE |
| HEY RIVER | HIGH PROBABILITY | HOLIDAY FANTASY | HOTT PARTNER | IZA B SLICK |
| JESS GET THERE FAST | KAELY'S BROTHER | KISS N IVORY | KJ WILD LILY | LIBERTAH R3 |
| LIGHTNING STRUCK | LOCO POR SER LIBRE | LORD KNOWS | MANSOURA | MAX BRAND |
| MENDELSSOHN JOY | MOR TIGER PAW | MR FABRICATOR | NEOTERIC | NORTH ARM BAY |
| PAT'S PADDOCK PICK | PURE RELENTLESS | RELENTLESS EFFORT | RELENTLESS GIRL | RISKY BOURBON |
| RR CARTEL QUICK LEGS | SAINT CHARLES | SAINT ROBERT'S ROW | SHAKE UP | SHANCES R |
| SILVER STINGRAY | SIR STERLING | SOCAL RED | SOUTHGATE GATOR | SPECIAL AGENT MAN |
| SUPERONA | TANGOS MISCHIEF | THIRSTY VISION | THIS BEAU KNOWS | VIC MORETTI |
Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
