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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Charles Town Races, November 12, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Go For Bourbon (8/5)
Place:2Policy Change (3/1)
Show:6Birdy Whisper (7/2)
Other contenders:5War Thunder (4/1), 4Palagio (15/1)
Rest of field:3Apolaustic (12/1), 7Guard Of Honour (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 126543
🎯 Longshots: 1624357
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Ashley H (3/1)
Place:8Menina Bonita (9/5)
Show:2Speight Her Size (7/2)
Other contenders:3Whacky Witch (6/1), 5Super Control (8/1), 4Water Slide (12/1)
Rest of field:1Queen Zena (20/1), 6Sober Years (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 872354
🎯 Longshots: 87254316
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,600
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Dark Fury (6/5)
Place:3Starship Refund (7/2)
Show:1Look Ahead (4/1)
Other contenders:4Police Woman (6/1), 6Cicatriz (12/1)
Rest of field:7Tapwrit Warrior (10/1), 2Oscor (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531467
🎯 Longshots: 5316274
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Whatarewedoing (3/1)
Place:4Dissolute (9/5)
Show:7All Aboard (5/1)
Other contenders:2Arditamente (6/1), 3Ok By Me (6/1)
Rest of field:1Smart With Heart (8/1), 5Arrivedercci (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 647231
🎯 Longshots: 4615732
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $30,600
Win:5Chummy (9/5)
Place:1Pepperoni Tony (5/2)
Show:7Hundley (3/1)
Other contenders:6I Am The Guardian (12/1), 8Tricksupmysleeve (15/1), 3Criminals Abound (10/1)
Rest of field:4Isthisasweettreat (12/1), 2American Striker (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517638
🎯 Longshots: 51734862
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $29,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Congrats On Fifty (7/5)
Place:1Restless (5/2)
Show:5Uncle Chinito (7/2)
Other contenders:2Thunderian (10/1), 3No Time To Boogie (8/1)
Rest of field:6Bumpkin (15/1), 4Night Preacher (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715324
🎯 Longshots: 7163524
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $34,100
Win:3Julita Bonita (9/5)
Place:6Collecting Angels (5/2)
Show:1Tina's Back (4/1)
Other contenders:5Miss Nine One O (6/1), 2Count The Flowers (8/1), 4Crafty Candygram (10/1)
Rest of field:7Sweet Lime (20/1), 8Fake Strolling (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 361524
🎯 Longshots: 36271458
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Up On The Rock (8/5)
Place:7Regal Flair (9/5)
Show:1Rio Oso (9/2)
Other contenders:6Katakana (20/1), 5Fox Fifty Eight (8/1), 4Peaceful Union (12/1)
Rest of field:8Zippy Do Da Day (15/1), 3Triple Threat (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 271546
🎯 Longshots: 27641538
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Charles Town Races — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 237 graded races at Charles Town Races, 2026-09-10 to 2026-11-07.

0%12%25%37%49%Our top pick: 39.2% from 237 racesOur top pick39.2%Morning-line favourite: 36.3% from 237 racesMorning-line favourite36.3%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick39.2%237
Morning-line favourite36.3%237
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
Win:1Go For Bourbon (8/5) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:2Policy Change (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:6Birdy Whisper (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:5War Thunder (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -48%, 3Apolaustic (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2
Rest of field:4Palagio (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 7Guard Of Honour (20/1) 2% · fair 43-1 underlay -53%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Go For Bourbon — 32.9% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Go For Bourbon32.9% ◀Policy Change — 20.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Policy Change20.8%Birdy Whisper — 19.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Birdy Whisper19.8%War Thunder — 11.5% win probability, morning line 4/1War Thunder11.5%Apolaustic — 6.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Apolaustic6.9%Palagio — 5.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Palagio5.7%Guard Of Honour — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Guard Of Honour2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Go For Bourbon32.9%1.6/1
Policy Change20.8%3/1
Birdy Whisper19.8%3.5/1
War Thunder11.5%4/1
Apolaustic6.9%12/1
Palagio5.7%15/1
Guard Of Honour2.3%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGo For Bourbon: model 32.9% vs market 30.9% (+2.0 points)Go For Bourbon+2.0Policy Change: model 20.8% vs market 20.1% (+0.7 points)Policy Change+0.7Birdy Whisper: model 19.8% vs market 17.9% (+2.0 points)Birdy Whisper+2.0War Thunder: model 11.5% vs market 16.1% (-4.6 points)War Thunder-4.6Apolaustic: model 6.9% vs market 6.2% (+0.8 points)Apolaustic+0.8Palagio: model 5.7% vs market 5.0% (+0.7 points)Palagio+0.7Guard Of Honour: model 2.3% vs market 3.8% (-1.5 points)Guard Of Honour-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Go For Bourbon32.9%30.9%+2.0
Policy Change20.8%20.1%+0.7
Birdy Whisper19.8%17.9%+2.0
War Thunder11.5%16.1%-4.6
Apolaustic6.9%6.2%+0.8
Palagio5.7%5.0%+0.7
Guard Of Honour2.3%3.8%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 126534
🎯 Longshots: 1624357
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900
Win:7Ashley H (3/1) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +31%
Place:2Speight Her Size (7/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:8Menina Bonita (9/5) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -49%
Other contenders:3Whacky Witch (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -40%, 5Super Control (8/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -62%, 4Water Slide (12/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -49%
Rest of field:1Queen Zena (20/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -52%, 6Sober Years (15/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -69%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ashley H — 30.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Ashley H30.4% ◀Speight Her Size — 25.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Speight Her Size25.6%Menina Bonita — 22.1% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Menina Bonita22.1%Whacky Witch — 9.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Whacky Witch9.0%Super Control — 4.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Super Control4.5%Water Slide — 4.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Water Slide4.1%Queen Zena — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Queen Zena2.4%Sober Years — 2.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Sober Years2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ashley H30.4%3/1
Speight Her Size25.6%3.5/1
Menina Bonita22.1%1.8/1
Whacky Witch9.0%6/1
Super Control4.5%8/1
Water Slide4.1%12/1
Queen Zena2.4%20/1
Sober Years2.0%15/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAshley H: model 30.4% vs market 19.7% (+10.7 points)Ashley H+10.7Speight Her Size: model 25.6% vs market 17.5% (+8.1 points)Speight Her Size+8.1Menina Bonita: model 22.1% vs market 28.1% (-6.1 points)Menina Bonita-6.1Whacky Witch: model 9.0% vs market 11.2% (-2.2 points)Whacky Witch-2.2Super Control: model 4.5% vs market 8.7% (-4.3 points)Super Control-4.3Water Slide: model 4.1% vs market 6.1% (-2.0 points)Water Slide-2.0Queen Zena: model 2.4% vs market 3.7% (-1.4 points)Queen Zena-1.4Sober Years: model 2.0% vs market 4.9% (-2.9 points)Sober Years-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ashley H30.4%19.7%+10.7
Speight Her Size25.6%17.5%+8.1
Menina Bonita22.1%28.1%-6.1
Whacky Witch9.0%11.2%-2.2
Super Control4.5%8.7%-4.3
Water Slide4.1%6.1%-2.0
Queen Zena2.4%3.7%-1.4
Sober Years2.0%4.9%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 782354
🎯 Longshots: 87254316
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,600
Win:5Dark Fury (6/5) 51% · fair 5-5 overlay +26%
Place:1Look Ahead (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:3Starship Refund (7/2) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -40%
Other contenders:6Cicatriz (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 4Police Woman (6/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -77%
Rest of field:7Tapwrit Warrior (10/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -69%, 2Oscor (15/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -56%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dark Fury — 51.3% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Dark Fury51.3% ◀Look Ahead — 17.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Look Ahead17.0%Starship Refund — 14.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Starship Refund14.6%Cicatriz — 7.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Cicatriz7.5%Police Woman — 3.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Police Woman3.7%Tapwrit Warrior — 3.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Tapwrit Warrior3.0%Oscor — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Oscor2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dark Fury51.3%1.2/1
Look Ahead17.0%4/1
Starship Refund14.6%3.5/1
Cicatriz7.5%12/1
Police Woman3.7%6/1
Tapwrit Warrior3.0%10/1
Oscor2.9%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDark Fury: model 51.3% vs market 36.4% (+14.9 points)Dark Fury+14.9Look Ahead: model 17.0% vs market 16.0% (+1.0 points)Look Ahead+1.0Starship Refund: model 14.6% vs market 17.8% (-3.1 points)Starship Refund-3.1Cicatriz: model 7.5% vs market 6.2% (+1.3 points)Cicatriz+1.3Police Woman: model 3.7% vs market 11.4% (-7.8 points)Police Woman-7.8Tapwrit Warrior: model 3.0% vs market 7.3% (-4.3 points)Tapwrit Warrior-4.3Oscor: model 2.9% vs market 5.0% (-2.1 points)Oscor-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Dark Fury51.3%36.4%+14.9
Look Ahead17.0%16.0%+1.0
Starship Refund14.6%17.8%-3.1
Cicatriz7.5%6.2%+1.3
Police Woman3.7%11.4%-7.8
Tapwrit Warrior3.0%7.3%-4.3
Oscor2.9%5.0%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 531476
🎯 Longshots: 5316274
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700
Win:6Whatarewedoing (3/1) 36% · fair 2-1 overlay +67%
Place:4Dissolute (9/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -42%
Show:7All Aboard (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -45%
Other contenders:3Ok By Me (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%, 1Smart With Heart (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:2Arditamente (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -45%, 5Arrivedercci (10/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -62%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Whatarewedoing — 35.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Whatarewedoing35.7% ◀Dissolute — 24.4% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Dissolute24.4%All Aboard — 10.0% win probability, morning line 5/1All Aboard10.0%Ok By Me — 9.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Ok By Me9.2%Smart With Heart — 8.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Smart With Heart8.6%Arditamente — 8.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Arditamente8.4%Arrivedercci — 3.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Arrivedercci3.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Whatarewedoing35.7%3/1
Dissolute24.4%1.8/1
All Aboard10.0%5/1
Ok By Me9.2%6/1
Smart With Heart8.6%8/1
Arditamente8.4%6/1
Arrivedercci3.6%10/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWhatarewedoing: model 35.7% vs market 19.8% (+15.9 points)Whatarewedoing+15.9Dissolute: model 24.4% vs market 28.3% (-3.9 points)Dissolute-3.9All Aboard: model 10.0% vs market 13.2% (-3.2 points)All Aboard-3.2Ok By Me: model 9.2% vs market 11.3% (-2.1 points)Ok By Me-2.1Smart With Heart: model 8.6% vs market 8.8% (-0.2 points)Smart With Heart-0.2Arditamente: model 8.4% vs market 11.3% (-3.0 points)Arditamente-3.0Arrivedercci: model 3.6% vs market 7.2% (-3.6 points)Arrivedercci-3.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Whatarewedoing35.7%19.8%+15.9
Dissolute24.4%28.3%-3.9
All Aboard10.0%13.2%-3.2
Ok By Me9.2%11.3%-2.1
Smart With Heart8.6%8.8%-0.2
Arditamente8.4%11.3%-3.0
Arrivedercci3.6%7.2%-3.6
🌧️ Off-track: 647321
🎯 Longshots: 4615732
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $30,600
Win:5Chummy (9/5) 36% · fair 2-1
Place:1Pepperoni Tony (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Show:7Hundley (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -31%
Other contenders:3Criminals Abound (10/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -58%, 6I Am The Guardian (12/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -53%, 4Isthisasweettreat (12/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -56%
Rest of field:2American Striker (12/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -70%, 8Tricksupmysleeve (15/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -69%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Chummy — 36.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Chummy36.2% ◀Pepperoni Tony — 29.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Pepperoni Tony29.3%Hundley — 18.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Hundley18.7%Criminals Abound — 4.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Criminals Abound4.0%I Am The Guardian — 3.8% win probability, morning line 12/1I Am The Guardian3.8%Isthisasweettreat — 3.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Isthisasweettreat3.5%American Striker — 2.5% win probability, morning line 12/1American Striker2.5%Tricksupmysleeve — 2.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Tricksupmysleeve2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Chummy36.2%1.8/1
Pepperoni Tony29.3%2.5/1
Hundley18.7%3/1
Criminals Abound4.0%10/1
I Am The Guardian3.8%12/1
Isthisasweettreat3.5%12/1
American Striker2.5%12/1
Tricksupmysleeve2.0%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherChummy: model 36.2% vs market 28.0% (+8.3 points)Chummy+8.3Pepperoni Tony: model 29.3% vs market 22.4% (+7.0 points)Pepperoni Tony+7.0Hundley: model 18.7% vs market 19.6% (-0.9 points)Hundley-0.9Criminals Abound: model 4.0% vs market 7.1% (-3.1 points)Criminals Abound-3.1I Am The Guardian: model 3.8% vs market 6.0% (-2.3 points)I Am The Guardian-2.3Isthisasweettreat: model 3.5% vs market 6.0% (-2.5 points)Isthisasweettreat-2.5American Striker: model 2.5% vs market 6.0% (-3.6 points)American Striker-3.6Tricksupmysleeve: model 2.0% vs market 4.9% (-2.9 points)Tricksupmysleeve-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Chummy36.2%28.0%+8.3
Pepperoni Tony29.3%22.4%+7.0
Hundley18.7%19.6%-0.9
Criminals Abound4.0%7.1%-3.1
I Am The Guardian3.8%6.0%-2.3
Isthisasweettreat3.5%6.0%-2.5
American Striker2.5%6.0%-3.6
Tricksupmysleeve2.0%4.9%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 517364
🎯 Longshots: 51734862
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $29,800
Win:1Restless (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:7Congrats On Fifty (7/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -50%
Show:2Thunderian (10/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +64%
Other contenders:5Uncle Chinito (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -48%, 3No Time To Boogie (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:4Night Preacher (12/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -28%, 6Bumpkin (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -56%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Restless — 29.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Restless29.3% ◀Congrats On Fifty — 26.4% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Congrats On Fifty26.4%Thunderian — 14.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Thunderian14.1%Uncle Chinito — 13.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Uncle Chinito13.0%No Time To Boogie — 8.7% win probability, morning line 8/1No Time To Boogie8.7%Night Preacher — 5.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Night Preacher5.7%Bumpkin — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Bumpkin2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Restless29.3%2.5/1
Congrats On Fifty26.4%1.4/1
Thunderian14.1%10/1
Uncle Chinito13.0%3.5/1
No Time To Boogie8.7%8/1
Night Preacher5.7%12/1
Bumpkin2.8%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRestless: model 29.3% vs market 22.6% (+6.7 points)Restless+6.7Congrats On Fifty: model 26.4% vs market 32.9% (-6.5 points)Congrats On Fifty-6.5Thunderian: model 14.1% vs market 7.2% (+6.9 points)Thunderian+6.9Uncle Chinito: model 13.0% vs market 17.6% (-4.6 points)Uncle Chinito-4.6No Time To Boogie: model 8.7% vs market 8.8% (-0.1 points)No Time To Boogie-0.1Night Preacher: model 5.7% vs market 6.1% (-0.4 points)Night Preacher-0.4Bumpkin: model 2.8% vs market 4.9% (-2.1 points)Bumpkin-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Restless29.3%22.6%+6.7
Congrats On Fifty26.4%32.9%-6.5
Thunderian14.1%7.2%+6.9
Uncle Chinito13.0%17.6%-4.6
No Time To Boogie8.7%8.8%-0.1
Night Preacher5.7%6.1%-0.4
Bumpkin2.8%4.9%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 715234
🎯 Longshots: 7163524
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $34,100
Win:3Julita Bonita (9/5) 48% · fair 1-1 overlay +68%
Place:6Collecting Angels (5/2) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -58%
Show:1Tina's Back (4/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -49%
Other contenders:5Miss Nine One O (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -41%, 2Count The Flowers (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%, 4Crafty Candygram (10/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -48%
Rest of field:7Sweet Lime (20/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -47%, 8Fake Strolling (20/1) 2% · fair 85-2 underlay -53%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Julita Bonita — 48.3% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Julita Bonita48.3% ◀Collecting Angels — 14.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Collecting Angels14.5%Tina'S Back — 11.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Tina'S Back11.3%Miss Nine One O — 9.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Miss Nine One O9.0%Count The Flowers — 7.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Count The Flowers7.1%Crafty Candygram — 4.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Crafty Candygram4.9%Sweet Lime — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Sweet Lime2.6%Fake Strolling — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Fake Strolling2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Julita Bonita48.3%1.8/1
Collecting Angels14.5%2.5/1
Tina'S Back11.3%4/1
Miss Nine One O9.0%6/1
Count The Flowers7.1%8/1
Crafty Candygram4.9%10/1
Sweet Lime2.6%20/1
Fake Strolling2.3%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJulita Bonita: model 48.3% vs market 27.8% (+20.4 points)Julita Bonita+20.4Collecting Angels: model 14.5% vs market 22.3% (-7.8 points)Collecting Angels-7.8Tina'S Back: model 11.3% vs market 15.6% (-4.3 points)Tina'S Back-4.3Miss Nine One O: model 9.0% vs market 11.1% (-2.2 points)Miss Nine One O-2.2Count The Flowers: model 7.1% vs market 8.7% (-1.5 points)Count The Flowers-1.5Crafty Candygram: model 4.9% vs market 7.1% (-2.2 points)Crafty Candygram-2.2Sweet Lime: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Sweet Lime-1.1Fake Strolling: model 2.3% vs market 3.7% (-1.4 points)Fake Strolling-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Julita Bonita48.3%27.8%+20.4
Collecting Angels14.5%22.3%-7.8
Tina'S Back11.3%15.6%-4.3
Miss Nine One O9.0%11.1%-2.2
Count The Flowers7.1%8.7%-1.5
Crafty Candygram4.9%7.1%-2.2
Sweet Lime2.6%3.7%-1.1
Fake Strolling2.3%3.7%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 361524
🎯 Longshots: 36271458
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
Win:2Up On The Rock (8/5) 37% · fair 3-2
Place:7Regal Flair (9/5) 33% · fair 2-1
Show:1Rio Oso (9/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%
Other contenders:5Fox Fifty Eight (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49%, 6Katakana (20/1) 5% · fair 37-2, 4Peaceful Union (12/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -62%
Rest of field:8Zippy Do Da Day (15/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -57%, 3Triple Threat (20/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -47%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Up On The Rock — 36.6% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Up On The Rock36.6% ◀Regal Flair — 33.3% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Regal Flair33.3%Rio Oso — 10.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Rio Oso10.5%Fox Fifty Eight — 6.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Fox Fifty Eight6.0%Katakana — 5.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Katakana5.2%Peaceful Union — 3.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Peaceful Union3.0%Zippy Do Da Day — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Zippy Do Da Day2.8%Triple Threat — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Triple Threat2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Up On The Rock36.6%1.6/1
Regal Flair33.3%1.8/1
Rio Oso10.5%4.5/1
Fox Fifty Eight6.0%8/1
Katakana5.2%20/1
Peaceful Union3.0%12/1
Zippy Do Da Day2.8%15/1
Triple Threat2.6%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherUp On The Rock: model 36.6% vs market 30.3% (+6.3 points)Up On The Rock+6.3Regal Flair: model 33.3% vs market 28.1% (+5.1 points)Regal Flair+5.1Rio Oso: model 10.5% vs market 14.3% (-3.8 points)Rio Oso-3.8Fox Fifty Eight: model 6.0% vs market 8.8% (-2.7 points)Fox Fifty Eight-2.7Katakana: model 5.2% vs market 3.8% (+1.4 points)Katakana+1.4Peaceful Union: model 3.0% vs market 6.1% (-3.0 points)Peaceful Union-3.0Zippy Do Da Day: model 2.8% vs market 4.9% (-2.1 points)Zippy Do Da Day-2.1Triple Threat: model 2.6% vs market 3.8% (-1.2 points)Triple Threat-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Up On The Rock36.6%30.3%+6.3
Regal Flair33.3%28.1%+5.1
Rio Oso10.5%14.3%-3.8
Fox Fifty Eight6.0%8.8%-2.7
Katakana5.2%3.8%+1.4
Peaceful Union3.0%6.1%-3.0
Zippy Do Da Day2.8%4.9%-2.1
Triple Threat2.6%3.8%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 271548
🎯 Longshots: 27641538
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
Win:1Go For Bourbon (8/5)
Place:6Birdy Whisper (7/2)
Show:2Policy Change (3/1)
Other contenders:5War Thunder (4/1), 4Palagio (15/1)
Rest of field:3Apolaustic (12/1), 7Guard Of Honour (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 126534
🎯 Longshots: 1624357
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900
Win:8Menina Bonita (9/5)
Place:7Ashley H (3/1)
Show:2Speight Her Size (7/2)
Other contenders:3Whacky Witch (6/1), 4Water Slide (12/1), 5Super Control (8/1)
Rest of field:1Queen Zena (20/1), 6Sober Years (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 872354
🎯 Longshots: 87254316
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,600
Win:5Dark Fury (6/5)
Place:1Look Ahead (4/1)
Show:3Starship Refund (7/2)
Other contenders:4Police Woman (6/1), 6Cicatriz (12/1)
Rest of field:7Tapwrit Warrior (10/1), 2Oscor (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531476
🎯 Longshots: 5316274
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700
Win:4Dissolute (9/5)
Place:6Whatarewedoing (3/1)
Show:7All Aboard (5/1)
Other contenders:3Ok By Me (6/1), 1Smart With Heart (8/1)
Rest of field:2Arditamente (6/1), 5Arrivedercci (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 467321
🎯 Longshots: 4615732
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $30,600
Win:5Chummy (9/5)
Place:7Hundley (3/1)
Show:1Pepperoni Tony (5/2)
Other contenders:8Tricksupmysleeve (15/1), 3Criminals Abound (10/1), 4Isthisasweettreat (12/1)
Rest of field:6I Am The Guardian (12/1), 2American Striker (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517346
🎯 Longshots: 51734862
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $29,800
Win:7Congrats On Fifty (7/5)
Place:1Restless (5/2)
Show:3No Time To Boogie (8/1)
Other contenders:5Uncle Chinito (7/2), 2Thunderian (10/1)
Rest of field:6Bumpkin (15/1), 4Night Preacher (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715324
🎯 Longshots: 7163524
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $34,100
Win:3Julita Bonita (9/5)
Place:6Collecting Angels (5/2)
Show:1Tina's Back (4/1)
Other contenders:5Miss Nine One O (6/1), 2Count The Flowers (8/1), 4Crafty Candygram (10/1)
Rest of field:7Sweet Lime (20/1), 8Fake Strolling (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 361524
🎯 Longshots: 36271458
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
Win:2Up On The Rock (8/5)
Place:7Regal Flair (9/5)
Show:1Rio Oso (9/2)
Other contenders:5Fox Fifty Eight (8/1), 4Peaceful Union (12/1), 3Triple Threat (20/1)
Rest of field:6Katakana (20/1), 8Zippy Do Da Day (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 271548
🎯 Longshots: 27641538
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #8 over #7 ($1 straight; box #8-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #2, #8, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #1, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #2 over #7 ($1 straight; box #2-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.43 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
86Katakana ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—5.3%+13.0%0.16%$0.16
TOTAL across 1 play:0.2%$0.16
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
Win:1Go For Bourbon (8/5)
Place:6Birdy Whisper (7/2)
Show:2Policy Change (3/1)
Other contenders:5War Thunder (4/1), 3Apolaustic (12/1)
Rest of field:4Palagio (15/1), 7Guard Of Honour (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162534
🎯 Longshots: 1624357
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900
Win:2Speight Her Size (7/2)
Place:7Ashley H (3/1)
Show:8Menina Bonita (9/5)
Other contenders:3Whacky Witch (6/1), 5Super Control (8/1), 4Water Slide (12/1)
Rest of field:1Queen Zena (20/1), 6Sober Years (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 872354
🎯 Longshots: 87254316
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,600
Win:5Dark Fury (6/5)
Place:1Look Ahead (4/1)
Show:3Starship Refund (7/2)
Other contenders:2Oscor (15/1), 4Police Woman (6/1)
Rest of field:7Tapwrit Warrior (10/1), 6Cicatriz (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531476
🎯 Longshots: 5316274
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700
Win:6Whatarewedoing (3/1)
Place:4Dissolute (9/5)
Show:7All Aboard (5/1)
Other contenders:1Smart With Heart (8/1), 3Ok By Me (6/1)
Rest of field:2Arditamente (6/1), 5Arrivedercci (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 467321
🎯 Longshots: 4615732
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $30,600
Win:5Chummy (9/5)
Place:7Hundley (3/1)
Show:1Pepperoni Tony (5/2)
Other contenders:3Criminals Abound (10/1), 2American Striker (12/1), 4Isthisasweettreat (12/1)
Rest of field:8Tricksupmysleeve (15/1), 6I Am The Guardian (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517324
🎯 Longshots: 51734862
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $29,800
Win:7Congrats On Fifty (7/5)
Place:1Restless (5/2)
Show:3No Time To Boogie (8/1)
Other contenders:5Uncle Chinito (7/2), 6Bumpkin (15/1)
Rest of field:2Thunderian (10/1), 4Night Preacher (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715326
🎯 Longshots: 7163524
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $34,100
Win:3Julita Bonita (9/5)
Place:1Tina's Back (4/1)
Show:5Miss Nine One O (6/1)
Other contenders:6Collecting Angels (5/2), 2Count The Flowers (8/1), 7Sweet Lime (20/1)
Rest of field:4Crafty Candygram (10/1), 8Fake Strolling (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 361524
🎯 Longshots: 36271458
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
Win:2Up On The Rock (8/5)
Place:7Regal Flair (9/5)
Show:6Katakana (20/1)
Other contenders:1Rio Oso (9/2), 4Peaceful Union (12/1), 5Fox Fifty Eight (8/1)
Rest of field:8Zippy Do Da Day (15/1), 3Triple Threat (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 271546
🎯 Longshots: 27641538
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
Win:1Go For Bourbon (8/5)
Place:2Policy Change (3/1)
Show:6Birdy Whisper (7/2)
Other contenders:5War Thunder (4/1), 4Palagio (15/1)
Rest of field:3Apolaustic (12/1), 7Guard Of Honour (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 126534
🎯 Longshots: 1624357
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900
Win:7Ashley H (3/1)
Place:2Speight Her Size (7/2)
Show:8Menina Bonita (9/5)
Other contenders:3Whacky Witch (6/1), 4Water Slide (12/1), 5Super Control (8/1)
Rest of field:1Queen Zena (20/1), 6Sober Years (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 872354
🎯 Longshots: 87254316
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,600
Win:5Dark Fury (6/5)
Place:1Look Ahead (4/1)
Show:3Starship Refund (7/2)
Other contenders:4Police Woman (6/1), 2Oscor (15/1)
Rest of field:6Cicatriz (12/1), 7Tapwrit Warrior (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 531476
🎯 Longshots: 5316274
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,700
Win:4Dissolute (9/5)
Place:6Whatarewedoing (3/1)
Show:1Smart With Heart (8/1)
Other contenders:7All Aboard (5/1), 3Ok By Me (6/1)
Rest of field:2Arditamente (6/1), 5Arrivedercci (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 467312
🎯 Longshots: 4615732
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $30,600
Win:5Chummy (9/5)
Place:1Pepperoni Tony (5/2)
Show:7Hundley (3/1)
Other contenders:8Tricksupmysleeve (15/1), 6I Am The Guardian (12/1), 3Criminals Abound (10/1)
Rest of field:4Isthisasweettreat (12/1), 2American Striker (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517364
🎯 Longshots: 51734862
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $29,800
Win:7Congrats On Fifty (7/5)
Place:1Restless (5/2)
Show:3No Time To Boogie (8/1)
Other contenders:5Uncle Chinito (7/2), 6Bumpkin (15/1)
Rest of field:2Thunderian (10/1), 4Night Preacher (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715326
🎯 Longshots: 7163524
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $34,100
Win:3Julita Bonita (9/5)
Place:1Tina's Back (4/1)
Show:6Collecting Angels (5/2)
Other contenders:5Miss Nine One O (6/1), 2Count The Flowers (8/1), 7Sweet Lime (20/1)
Rest of field:4Crafty Candygram (10/1), 8Fake Strolling (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 361524
🎯 Longshots: 36271458
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,300
Win:7Regal Flair (9/5)
Place:2Up On The Rock (8/5)
Show:1Rio Oso (9/2)
Other contenders:6Katakana (20/1), 5Fox Fifty Eight (8/1), 4Peaceful Union (12/1)
Rest of field:3Triple Threat (20/1), 8Zippy Do Da Day (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 271548
🎯 Longshots: 27641538
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #7,#2,#8 (78%) / R3: #5,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#4 (60%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #5,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#4 (60%) / R5: #5,#1 (66%)
$8 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #5,#1 (66%) / R6: #1,#7,#2 (70%) / R7: #3,#6 (63%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #1,#7,#2 (70%) / R7: #3,#6 (63%) / R8: #2,#7 (70%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #7,#2,#8 (78%) / R3: #5,#1 (68%) / R4: #6,#4 (60%) / R5: #5,#1 (66%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #5,#1 (66%) / R6: #1,#7,#2 (70%) / R7: #3,#6 (63%) / R8: #2,#7 (70%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALL ABOARDAMERICAN STRIKERAPOLAUSTICARDITAMENTEARRIVEDERCCI
BIRDY WHISPERBUMPKINCHUMMYCICATRIZCOLLECTING ANGELS
COUNT THE FLOWERSCRAFTY CANDYGRAMCRIMINALS ABOUNDDARK FURYDISSOLUTE
FOX FIFTY EIGHTGO FOR BOURBONGUARD OF HONOURHUNDLEYI AM THE GUARDIAN
JULITA BONITAKATAKANALOOK AHEADMENINA BONITAMISS NINE ONE O
NO TIME TO BOOGIEOK BY MEOSCORPALAGIOPEACEFUL UNION
POLICE WOMANPOLICY CHANGEQUEEN ZENAREGAL FLAIRRESTLESS
SMART WITH HEARTSOBER YEARSSPEIGHT HER SIZESTARSHIP REFUNDSUPER CONTROL
TAPWRIT WARRIORTHUNDERIANTINA'S BACKTRICKSUPMYSLEEVETRIPLE THREAT
UP ON THE ROCKWAR THUNDERWATER SLIDEWHACKY WITCHWHATAREWEDOING

 


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